Consequences of the Armed Conflict, Forced Human Displacement, and Land Abandonment on Forest Cover Change in Colombia: A Multi-scaled Analysis

The web of conflict-related interactions in Colombia: exploring causal linkages between ecological and social variables by the qualitative loop analysis

In Colombia, the long-lasting internal conflict heavily shaped the socio-ecological context and imposed relationships that persisted after the peace agreement was signed in 2016. One question of interest is whether policies or interventions conceived to attain desirable goals for the post-conflict society may be effective or, rather, if the constraints imposed by the conflict scenario might produce unintended effects, either on the environmental or the social side. To explore this issue, we envisaged the socio-ecological system as a parsimonious set of characteristic ecological and social variables within the conflict-related framework and reconstructed their interactions, exploiting elicitation-based information and the literature. We visualized the resulting interactive networks as signed digraphs. Applying the qualitative technique of loop analysis combined with numerical simulations, we predicted the response of the system to policies as drivers of change, such as subsidized credit to capital-intensive activities or policies that increase small farming competitiveness and access to markets. Highlighting causal linkages reveals that the persistence of conflict factors may produce unexpected interdependencies between licit and illicit activities and that, only in a few cases, the persistence of these mechanisms allows synergies between desirable goals.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Assessment of the environmental impacts of conflict-driven Internally Displaced Persons: A sentinel-2 satellite based analysis of land use/cover changes in the Kas locality, Darfur, Sudan

Internal displacement of populations due to armed conflicts can substantially impact a region's Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and the efforts towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The objective of this study was to determine the effects of conflict-driven Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) on vegetation cover and environmental sustainability in the Kas locality of Darfur, Sudan. Supervised classification and change analysis were performed on Sentinel-2 satellite images for the years 2016 and 2022 using QGIS software. The Sentinel-2 Level 2A data were analysed using the Random Forest (RF) Machine Learning (ML) classifier. Five land cover types were successfully classified (agricultural land, vegetation cover, built-up area, sand, and bareland) with overall accuracies of more than 86% and Kappa coefficients greater than 0.74. The results revealed a 35.33% (-10.20 km2) decline in vegetation cover area over the six-year study period, equivalent to an average annual loss rate of -5.89% (-1.70 km2) of vegetation cover. In contrast, agricultural land and built-up areas increased by 17.53% (98.12 km2) and 60.53% (5.29 km2) respectively between the two study years. The trends of the changes among different LULC classes suggest potential influences of human activities especially the IDPs, natural processes, and a combination of both in the study area. This study highlights the impacts of IDPs on natural resources and land cover patterns in a conflict-affected region. It also offers pertinent data that can support decision-makers in restoring the affected areas and preventing further environmental degradation for sustainability.

Caught in the crossfire: biodiversity conservation paradox of sociopolitical conflict

The current state of global biodiversity is confronted with escalating threats arising from human-induced environmental changes and a growing array of unpredictable challenges. However, effective conservation efforts are often hindered by limited knowledge, especially in developing economies such as the Philippines. The limitations imposed by these shortfalls in biodiversity knowledge hamper the capacity to protect biodiversity in light of the continuing extinction crisis. Our study revealed that areas with higher conflict levels exhibited lower species richness, fewer occurrence records, and reduced forest cover. This finding provides initial evidence for the relationship between sociopolitical conflict and biodiversity in the Philippines. We posit that the security risks caused by sociopolitical conflicts could have a negative impact on conservation efforts, particularly in terms of monitoring and implementing measures to protect natural resources. The links that bind armed conflict and biodiversity conservation are multifaceted and complex issues that warrant greater scientific and political attention. Finally, we identified 10 meaningful approaches to address shortfalls in biodiversity knowledge in conflicted areas, particularly incorporating conflict-sensitive approaches, considering the geopolitical context and conflict dynamics to adapt and align their strategies with local realities for more effective conservation efforts.

Displacement and degradation: Impediments to agricultural livelihoods among ethnic minority farmers in post-war Sri Lanka

Our understandings of the effects of war on land and resource access following armed conflicts are often shaped (and limited) by a reliance upon remotely sensed data. Here, we analyze household-level survey and community-level focus group data collected in Sri Lanka following the end of the nation's ethno-religiously rooted civil war (1983-2009) to determine if and how the war differently affected the nation's rice farmers. Our synthetic analyses revealed geographic variation in agricultural livelihood viability in post-war Sri Lanka, demonstrating how the protracted effects of war are exacerbating the vulnerability of rural Sri Lanka's ethno-religious minority (Tamil and Moor) populations by (re-)shaping access to critical natural resources, including both land and irrigation water.

The Response of Ecologically Functional Land to Changes in Urban Economic Growth and Transportation Construction in China

Understanding the impact of urban economic growth on ecologically functional land (EFL) change and the relevant mechanisms is necessary for adaptive ecological management and regional policy. The present study aims to explore the relationship between EFL change, urban economic growth and transportation construction based on reliable land survey data from 2000 and 2015, as well as natural and socio-economic data for over 2600 counties in China. We use the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) technique to empirically analyze the temporal changes in their relationships and alleviate endogenous bias and use the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model to explore the spatial heterogeneity across the country. The results indicate that the secondary and tertiary industries' development had a significantly negative effect on EFL changes, and transportation construction is a major driver of urban economic growth in China, especially in the central region. From 2000 to 2015, the negative impact of urban economic growth on EFL changes decreased, and the contribution of transportation construction to urban economic growth increased. The regions (such as the central region) where transportation construction contributes more to the secondary and tertiary industries had a proportionally greater reduction in EFL. It appears that excessive dependence on transportation to drive the development of secondary and tertiary industries is the underlying reason for EFL reduction. The findings of this study can assist in formulating regional policies and advancing the coordination of urban economic development and ecosystem protection.

Understanding systemic land use dynamics in conflict-affected territories: The cases of Cesar and Caquetá, Colombia

In the Colombian context, disputes over natural resources, mainly over land, and poor governance are intertwined with armed conflict. Although efforts to address this situation, including the 2016 peace agreement signed between Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC, by Spanish acronym) are underway, these disputes continue, affecting land use dynamics. Understanding the complexity and trends in land use conflicts, as well as the specific regional characteristics underlying differing land use changes across regions, is critical. This article aims to systematically understand land use dynamics in two contrasting and conflict-affected territories in Colombia, Caquetá and Cesar, thus identifying entry points to address land-use conflicts at the regional level. To address the complexity of each regional case, we apply a methodology based on system thinking to capture the interconnections between socio-economic and environmental system components and their land use dynamics. Results depicted through causal loop diagrams not just show the cascade of environmental, social, and economic failures resulting from land use changes in these two conflict-affected territories but also suggest that land tenure systems innovations and the promotion of sustainable land use interventions at the regional level can reverse the consequences of the land use changes. Thus, future actions addressing land use conflicts must be context-dependent, tackling the root and structural causes.

Understanding the diversity and biogeography of Colombian edible plants

Despite being the second most biodiverse country in the world, hosting more than 7000 useful species, Colombia is characterized by widespread poverty and food insecurity. Following the growing attention in Neglected and Underutilized Species, the present study will combine spatial and taxonomic analysis to unveil their diversity and distribution, as well as to advocate their potential as key resources for tackling food security in the country. The cataloguing of Colombian edible plants resulted in 3805 species. Among these, the most species-rich genera included Inga, Passiflora, Miconia, Solanum, Pouteria, Protium, Annona and Bactris. Biogeographic analysis revealed major diversity hotspots in the Andean humid forests by number of records, species, families, and genera. The departments of Antioquia, Boyacá, Meta, and Cundinamarca ranked first both in terms of number of unique georeferenced records and species of edible plants. Significant information gaps about species distribution were detected in the departments of Cesar, Sucre, Atlántico, Vichada, and Guainía, corresponding to the Caribe and Llanos bioregions, indicating the urgent need for focusing investigation in these areas. Furthermore, a significant level of geographic specificity was found in edible plant species’ distributions between 13 different bioregions and 33 departments, hinting the adoption of tailorized prioritisation protocols for the conservation and revitalization of such resources at the local level.

Integrating Pixels, People, and Political Economy to Understand the Role of Armed Conflict and Geopolitics in Driving Deforestation: The Case of Myanmar

Armed conflict and geopolitics are a driving force of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC), but with considerable variation in deforestation trends between broader and finer scales of analysis. Remotely-sensed annual deforestation rates from 1989 to 2018 are presented at the national and (sub-) regional scales for Kachin State in the north of Myanmar and in Kayin State and Tanintharyi Region in the southeast. We pair our multiscaled remote sensing analysis with our multisited political ecology approach where we conducted field-based interviews in study sites between 2018 and 2020. Our integrated analysis identified three common periods of deforestation spikes at the national and state/region level, but with some notable disparities between regions as well as across and within townships and village tracts. We found the rate and geography of deforestation were most influenced by the territorial jurisdictions of armed authorities, national political economic reforms and timber regulations, and proximity to national borders and their respective geopolitical relations. The absence or presence of ceasefires in the north and southeast did not solely explain deforestation patterns. Rather than consider ceasefire or war as a singular explanatory variable effecting forest cover change, we demonstrate the need to analyze armed conflict as a dynamic multisited and diffuse phenomenon, which is simultaneously integrated into broader political economy and geopolitical forces.

On the Geopolitics of Fire, Conflict and Land in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

There is limited understanding of the geopolitics of fire, conflict, and land, for example, how conflict and fire are related and how conflict impacts the biophysical environment. Since 2014, the natural environment in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq has been negatively affected by recurrent conflict that coincided with a sharp increase in the number of reported fires. Against this background, this study explores the spatiotemporal aspects of conflict, fire, and land use and land cover in this region. We combine several satellite-derived products, including land use and land cover, active fire, and precipitation. We apply a partial correlation analysis to understand the relationship between fire, conflict, climate, and land use and land cover. Conflict events and fires have increased since 2014 and have followed a similar temporal pattern, and we show that certain conflicts were particular to certain land use and land cover contexts. For example, the conflict involving the Islamic State was concentrated in southern areas with bare soil/sparse vegetation, and the conflict involving Turkey largely took place in northern mountainous areas characterized by natural vegetation and rugged topography. This dichotomy indicates divergent effects of conflict on the land system. A surprising finding was that fire hotspots had a low positive correlation with the amplitude of distance to conflict while accounting for other variables such as land cover and climate. The high statistical significance of this relationship indicates nonlinearity and implies that a larger range of distances to conflict creates more space for the fires to spread in the surrounding landscape. At the same time, fire hotspots had a weaker but negative correlation to distance from conflict events, which is somewhat expected as areas farther away from conflict locations have lower exposure risk to fires. We discuss the implications of these findings within the geopolitical context of the region and acknowledge the limitations of the study. We conclude with a summary of the main findings and recommendations for future research.

Reconstructing Long Term High Andean Forest Dynamics Using Historical Aerial Imagery: A Case Study in Colombia

High Andean forests are biodiversity hotspots that also play key roles in the provisioning of vital ecosystem services for neighboring cities. In past centuries, the hinterland of Andean fast-growing cities often experienced a dramatic decline in forested areas, but there are reports that forest cover has been recovering recently. We analyzed aerial imagery spanning the years 1940 to 2007 from nine administrative localities in the Eastern Andean Cordillera of Colombia in order to elucidate precise patterns of forest vegetation change. To this aim, we performed image object-based classification by means of texture analysis and image segmentation. We then derived connectivity metrics to investigate whether forest cover trajectories showed an increase or decrease in fragmentation and landscape degradation. We observed a forest cover recovery in all the examined localities, except one. In general, forest recovery was accompanied by an increase in core habitat areas. The time scale of the positive trends identified partially coincides with the creation of protected areas in the region, which very likely furthered the recovery of forest patches. This study unveils the long-term dynamics of peri-urban high Andean forest cover, providing valuable information on historical vegetation changes in a highly dynamic landscape.

Tracking extinction risk trends and patterns in a mega-diverse country: A Red List Index for birds in Colombia

Monitoring trends in the extinction risk of species is important for tracking conservation effectiveness. The Red List index (RLI) reflects changes in aggregate extinction risk for sets of species over time (a value of zero means that all species are extinct, a value of one means that all species are categorized as Least Concern). We calculated the first national RLI for birds in Colombia for the period 2002–2016, and disaggregated indices by ecosystems, regions, and species groups. Overall, the status of birds in Colombia has moderately deteriorated during 2002–2016, declining by 0.0000714% per year (the global RLI for birds declined by 0.0297% per year). High Andean forest, paramo, and freshwater are the ecosystems in worst condition. The two regions with the greatest avian diversity contrasted: the Andes has the lowest RLI, and the Amazon the highest. Among species groups, gamebirds, parrots, large frugivores, and forest raptors are the most threatened. Habitat loss from expansion of illicit crops and population declines from hunting were the most important threats. Agricultural expansion, invasive alien animal species, illegal logging and illegal mining are significant threats for some species. Tracking species’ extinction risk is important in a country with the highest bird species richness in the world, dynamic spatial patterns of habitat loss, and high levels of endemism. Recent developments provide reasons for both hope and despair. In 2016, a peace agreement ended 50 years of armed conflict. New opportunities for biodiversity conservation, local development based on bird-watching tourism, and advancement in scientific knowledge of birds now occur alongside dramatic increases in deforestation. These new conservation opportunities and challenges provide strong motivation to take advantage of the fact that the overall risk of extinction of birds in Colombia is still relatively low and stable. Effective action is urgently needed while there still is the opportunity to prevent extinctions and safeguard species, particularly those in higher risk categories.

Peacebuilding in Rural Colombia—A Collective Perception of the Integrated Rural Reform (IRR) in the Department of Caquetá (Amazon)

The 2016 peace agreement between the Government of Colombia and the FARC-EP created institutional space for an effective implementation of needed rural reforms. However, the change of power structures also contains risks, like the deterioration of natural resources and the strengthening of other armed groups. By addressing collective perceptions regarding the Integrated Rural Reform (IRR), this paper shows the consequences of the peace agreement for the rural population in the department of Caquetá. Additionally, it presents the main challenges for further departmental development. The case study approach uses both semi-structured expert interviews of rural development stakeholders in different sectors based on three sampling strands, as well as participatory observation in the field. The main findings show an increase of general physical security and (economic) interest in the department since the signing of the agreement, while the deforestation rate, homicides, and threats against social-environmental leaders were all highly increased. The study also derives recommendations of departmental actors in rural development for a more effective peace implementation process, like the change from cattle driven to a more conservational economy with agri-silviculture and ecotourism, led by local civil society. To create a stable peace, it is crucial that the current government effectively implements the IRR, while also considering departmental perceptions of sustainable development. If the implementation process and departmental recognition is not enforced sufficiently, then peace might only be possible at the cost of the Amazon and its nature.

The Socio-Economic and Environmental Variables Associated with Hotspots of Infrastructure Expansion in South America

The built environment, defined as all human-made infrastructure, is increasing to fulfill the demand for human settlements, productive systems, mining, and industries. Due to the profound direct and indirect impacts that the built environment produces on natural ecosystems, it is considered a major driver of land change and biodiversity loss, and a major component of global environmental change. In South America, a global producer of minerals and agricultural commodities, and a region with many biodiversity hotspots, infrastructure expanded considerably between 2001 and 2011. This expansion occurred mainly in rural areas, towns, and sprawling suburban areas that were not previously developed. Herein, we characterized the areas of major infrastructure expansion between 2001 and 2011 in South America. We used nighttime light data, land use maps, and socio-economic and environmental variables to answer the following questions: (1) Where are the hotspots of infrastructure expansion located? and (2) What combination of socio-economic and environmental variables are associated with infrastructure expansion? Hotspots of infrastructure expansion encompass 70% (337,310 km2) of the total infrastructure expansion occurring between 2001 and 2011 across South America. Urban population and economic growth, mean elevation, and mean road density were the main variables associated with the hotspots, grouping them into eight clusters. Furthermore, within the hotspots, woody vegetation increased around various urban centers, and several areas showed a large increase in agriculture. Investments in large scale infrastructure projects, and the expansion and intensification of productive systems (e.g., agriculture and meat production) play a dominant role in the increase of infrastructure across South America. We expect that under the current trends of globalization and land changes, infrastructure will continue increasing and expanding into no-development areas and remote places. Therefore, to fully understand the direct and indirect impacts of land use change in natural ecosystems studies of infrastructure need to expand to areas beyond cities. This will provide better land management alternatives for the conservation of biodiversity as well as peri-urban areas across South America.

Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: A scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region

This paper describes the relationship between the landscape and the socio-economic and political characteristics of a highly biodiverse Andean region of Colombia, which is now recovering from the socio-ecological impact of protracted armed conflict. We quantify the current spatial relationship between nature and society, and we include legacy effects from the most recent period of armed conflict and its consequences of forced displacement and land use disruption. The procedure followed provides a quantitative model where a minimum number of socio-economic and political variables explain the variation in land cover. The results represent the relationship between land use intensity and the main socio-economic and political indicators, highlighting a close interaction between landscape configuration, socio-economic structure of local populations, coercive conservation and armed conflict. A simulated post-conflict landscape shows a clear transition gradient towards agrarian expansion and intensification, also in systems where naturalness is a relevant feature. The peace process in Colombia offers opportunities for new schemes of land planning and management, including natural resource governance and policy reforms to improve welfare and resilience of local communities. The results allow to define options for future planning given the possible consequences of socio-political legacy effects yet to fully play out across Colombia.

Civilian science: the potential of participatory environmental monitoring in areas affected by armed conflicts

Legal and policy initiatives to address the environmental dimensions of armed conflicts and their impact on people, ecosystems and sustainable development are highly dependent on the availability of environmental data from conflict-affected areas. Socio-political and security conditions in these areas often impede data collection, while traditional models of post-conflict environmental assessments are limited in scope. In response, an increasing range of actors is utilising remote sensing and open source data collection to identify and estimate health and ecological risks during and after conflicts. This paper considers the role of participatory citizen science methodologies in complementing both remote monitoring and post-conflict assessments. It examines existing models and mechanisms for environmental data collection and utilisation in conflict contexts, and the extent to which the core values and principles of citizen science are transferable. We find that 'civilian science' is feasible and could be well-suited to conflict conditions. In addition to addressing gaps in data collection, it may also empower communities affected by environmental degradation, enhance their environmental human rights, supplement the often limited monitoring capacity of governmental agencies and facilitate cooperation and peacebuilding. The paper concludes by proposing methodological approaches for three common forms of environmental degradation associated with armed conflicts.

Conservation Opportunities of the Land Restitution Program Areas in the Colombian Post-Conflict Period

The Land Restitution Program (LRP) is one of the greatest challenges for Colombia’s post-conflict period; it implies the recognition of the victims of dispossession or abandonment of lands and sets the discussion for future land use planning in these areas. The 1,119,959 Ha of LRP areas (August 2018) require knowledge of their state to promote land uses that favor the conservation of priority ecosystems and forest cover. Spatial and statistical analyzes where used to study the land-cover change in and around LRP areas at the national and regional level. An index of naturalness using a multi-criteria framework was used to identify important areas for conservation. Within areas, forest cover changes, resulting from deforestation and regeneration processes, decreased between 1990 and 2017. A total of 9.4% of their area show high naturalness, while 20% of them show high importance for conservation. The results show that, despite their dispossession/abandonment, these areas continued a deforestation process. Most of the areas show low naturalness, but conservation priorities can be identified in the Andes, Amazon, and Orinoco regions.

Dramatic cropland expansion in Myanmar following political reforms threatens biodiversity

Effective conservation planning needs to consider the threats of cropland expansion to biodiversity. We used Myanmar as a case study to devise a modeling framework to identify which Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are most vulnerable to cropland expansion in a context of increasingly resolved armed conflict. We studied 13 major crops with the potential to expand into KBAs. We used mixed-effects models and an agricultural versus forest rent framework to model current land use and conversion of forests to cropland for each crop. We found that the current cropland distribution is explained by higher agricultural value, lower transportation costs and lower elevation. We also found that protected areas and socio-political instability are effective in slowing down deforestation with conflicts in Myanmar damaging farmland and displacing farmers elsewhere. Under plausible economic development and socio-political stability scenarios, the models forecast 48.5% of land to be converted. We identified export crops such as maize, and pigeon pea as key deforestation drivers. This cropland expansion would pose a major threat to Myanmar’s freshwater KBAs. We highlight the importance of considering rapid land-use transitions in the tropics to devise robust conservation plans.

Responding to Climate Change in Tropical Countries Emerging from Armed Conflicts: Harnessing Climate Finance, Peacebuilding, and Sustainable Food

Linking climate action with sustainable development goals (SDGs) might incentivize social and political support to forest conservation. However, further examination of the conceptual entry points for linking efforts for reducing forest-based emissions with those for delivering SDGs is required. This review paper aims to contribute to fulfilling this research need. It provides insights into the links between conserving forests for climate change mitigation and peacebuilding. Specifically, the paper examines opportunities to harness climate finance for conserving forests and achieving long-lasting peace and sustainable food. It does so via a literature review and the examination of the Orinoquia region of Colombia. The findings from the literature review suggest that harnessing climate finance for conserving forests and peacebuilding is, in theory, viable if the activities are designed in accordance with social, institutional, and economic factors. Meanwhile, the Orinoquia region provides evidence that these two seemingly intractable problems are proposed to be solved together. At a time when efforts for reducing forest-based emissions are being designed and targeted at (post-) conflict areas in Colombia and elsewhere, the paper’s findings might demonstrate the compatibility of programs aimed at reducing forest-based emissions with efforts relating to peacebuilding and sustainable food to both environmental and non-environmental government agencies.

Vulnerability of mammals to land-use changes in Colombia’s post-conflict era

Colombia, one of the most biodiverse countries in the world, is entering a peaceful period after more than fifty years of armed conflict. Due to land use changes resulting from this new situation, negative effects on biodiversity, including mammals are expected. We think that mammal populations will be more sensitive in municipalities where activities related to post-conflict will be carried out. In that order, we aim to: 1) identify which mammal species would be more sensitive and 2) identify the critical regions where there is higher richness of sensitive mammals. We used the distributions of 95 mammal taxa and calculated a sensitivity index by combining four factors: 1) the proportion of each species distribution within protected areas in relation to their proposed extinction thresholds, 2) the proportion within post-conflict municipalities, 3) the proportion of five types of potential land use in post-conflict municipalities and 4) the threat status of each species. Using this index, we drew a map of species richness for mammals classified at high-risk and very high-risk categories. Primates were the most sensitive group to post-conflict changes. Urabá and the region near to the Serranía de San Lucas were the areas with the highest richness of sensitive species. We suggest using primates as flagship species to carry out conservation schemes in the post-conflict era in programmes led by local farmers and former fighters who have been reintegrated into civilian life.