Cognitive estimation abilities in healthy and clinical populations: the use of the Cognitive Estimation Test

The role of cognitive estimation in understanding the mental states of others

Previous studies have emphasized the critical role of the prefrontal cortex in cognitive estimation and theory of mind, however, none of them has questioned the possible role of cognitive estimation processes in understanding the mental states of others. In this study, we compared 30 patients with focal prefrontal cortex damage and 30 control subjects matched by gender, age, and education level on their performances on a cognitive estimation task and two tasks assessing theory of mind: the "Faux-Pas" task and the Reading the Mind in the Eyes task. The results showed that patients were significantly impaired compared with control subjects on both abilities of cognitive estimation and theory of mind. Moreover, regression analyses showed that performance on theory of mind was predicted by the scores on cognitive estimation. Finally, using voxel-based lesion analysis, we identified a partially common bilaterally distributed prefrontal network involved in both these domains centred within the ventral and dorsomedial areas with extension to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.

Conventional and frugal methods of estimating COVID-19-related excess deaths and undercount factors

Across the world, the officially reported number of COVID-19 deaths is likely an undercount. Establishing true mortality is key to improving data transparency and strengthening public health systems to tackle future disease outbreaks. In this study, we estimated excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Pune region of India. Excess deaths are defined as the number of additional deaths relative to those expected from pre-COVID-19-pandemic trends. We integrated data from: (a) epidemiological modeling using pre-pandemic all-cause mortality data, (b) discrepancies between media-reported death compensation claims and official reported mortality, and (c) the "wisdom of crowds" public surveying. Our results point to an estimated 14,770 excess deaths [95% CI 9820-22,790] in Pune from March 2020 to December 2021, of which 9093 were officially counted as COVID-19 deaths. We further calculated the undercount factor-the ratio of excess deaths to officially reported COVID-19 deaths. Our results point to an estimated undercount factor of 1.6 [95% CI 1.1-2.5]. Besides providing similar conclusions about excess deaths estimates across different methods, our study demonstrates the utility of frugal methods such as the analysis of death compensation claims and the wisdom of crowds in estimating excess mortality.

Using the ATN system as a guide for the neuropsychological assessment of Alzheimer's disease

INTRODUCTION

Many studies have attempted to determine whether Alzheimer's disease (AD) in-vivo biomarkers can predict neuropsychological performance since pathophysiological changes precede cognitive changes by several years. Nonetheless, neuropsychological measures can also detect cognitive deterioration in cognitively normal individuals with AD-positive biomarkers. Recent studies have investigated whether cognitive measures can be used as a proxy for biomarkers. This is a crucial issue since biomarker analysis is expensive, invasive, and not yet widespread in clinical practice. However, these studies have so far considered only one or two classes of AD biomarkers. Here, we aim at preliminarily evaluating whether and which neuropsychological measures can discriminate individuals that have been classified according to the full scheme of biomarkers known as ATN system. This scheme groups biomarkers as a function of the three main AD-related pathologic processes they measure (i.e., β-amyloidosis, tauopathy, and neurodegeneration) to provide an unbiased and descriptive definition of the Alzheimer's continuum.

METHOD

Biomarkers and neuropsychological data from 78 patients (70.01 ± 9.15 years; 38 females) with suspected cognitive decline were extracted from a medical database. Participants' biomarker profiles were classified into the following ATN categories: normal AD biomarkers; Alzheimer's continuum; non-AD pathologic change. Data were analyzed using a Bayesian approach, to guarantee reliable result interpretation of data stemming from small samples.

RESULTS

The discrimination ability of each neuropsychological measure varied depending on the pairs of ATN categories compared. The best-discriminating predictor in the Alzheimer's continuum vs. normal biomarkers comparison was the figure naming ability. In contrast, in the Alzheimer's continuum vs. non-AD pathologic change comparison the best predictor was the wordlist forgetting rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the study was exploratory in nature, the proposed methodological approach may have the potential to identify the best neuropsychological measures for estimating AD neuropathological changes, leading to a more biologically informed use of neuropsychological assessment.

The right anterior temporal lobe critically contributes to magnitude knowledge

Cognitive estimation is a mental ability applied to solve numerical problems when precise facts are unknown, unavailable or impractical to calculate. It has been associated with several underlying cognitive components, most often with executive functions and semantic memory. Little is known about the neural correlates of cognitive estimation. To address this issue, the present cross-sectional study applied lesion-symptom mapping in a group of 55 patients with left hemineglect due to right-hemisphere stroke. Previous evidence suggests a high prevalence of cognitive estimation impairment in these patients, as they might show a general bias towards large magnitudes. Compared to 55 age- and gender-matched healthy controls, the patient group demonstrated impaired cognitive estimation. However, the expected large magnitude bias was not found. Lesion-symptom mapping related their general estimation impairment predominantly to brain damage in the right anterior temporal lobe. Also critically involved were the right uncinate fasciculus, the anterior commissure and the right inferior frontal gyrus. The main findings of this study emphasize the role of semantic memory in cognitive estimation, with reference to a growing body of neuroscientific literature postulating a transmodal hub for semantic cognition situated in the bilateral anterior temporal lobe. That such semantic hub function may also apply to numerical knowledge is not undisputed. We here propose a critical contribution of the right anterior temporal lobe to at least one aspect of number processing, i.e. the knowledge about real-world numerical magnitudes.

Size discrimination in adult zebrafish (Danio rerio): Normative data and individual variation

In humans, aging and neurodegenerative diseases have been found to be associated with impairment in both mathematical abilities and estimation of continuous quantities such as size, weight or distance. Zebrafish (Danio rerio) is rapidly becoming a model for human aging and brain disorders but we currently lack any instrument for rapid assessment of quantity estimation abilities in this species. Here we developed a simple method based on spontaneous preference of zebrafish for using the larger available hole to pass an obstacle. We collected a large amount of data from small groups of zebrafish moving between compartments of their tank and we used these normative data to compare the performance of individually tested fish. Zebrafish significantly discriminated size ratios from 0.60 to 0.91 with their performance decreasing while increasing the size ratio between the smaller and the larger hole presented. On average, individually tested fish showed the same performance, but a large inter-individual variability was observed. Test-retest analyses revealed a good reliability of this test, with 0.60 and 0.75 ratios being the most informative. Experience did not affect individual performance, suggesting the suitability of this test to measure the longitudinal changes and the effects of pharmacological treatments on cognitive abilities.

Identification and Evaluation of Neuropsychological Tools Used in the Assessment of Alcohol-Related Cognitive Impairment: A Systematic Review

Background: Neuropsychological assessment is central to identifying and determining the extent of Alcohol-Related Cognitive Impairment (ARCI). The present systematic review aimed to synthesize and discuss the evidence appraising the neuropsychological tests used to assess ARCI in order to support clinicians and researchers in selecting appropriate tests for use with this population. Methods: We searched for studies investigating the psychometric, diagnostic and practical values of tools used in the screening, diagnosis, and assessment of Korsakoff's Syndrome (KS), Alcohol-Related Dementia (ARD), and those with a specific diagnosis of Alcohol-Related Brain Damage (ARBD). The following databases were searched in March 2016 and again in August 2018: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Psych-INFO, ProQuest Psychology, and Science Direct. Study quality was assessed using a checklist designed by the authors to evaluate the specific factors contributing to robust and clearly reported studies in this area. A total of 43 studies were included following the screening of 3646 studies by title and abstract and 360 at full-text. Meta-analysis was not appropriate due to heterogeneity in the tests and ARCI samples investigated in the studies reviewed. Instead, review findings were narratively synthesized and divided according to five domains of assessment: cognitive screening, memory, executive function, intelligence and test batteries, and premorbid ability. Effect sizes (d) were calculated to supplement findings. Results: Overall, several measures demonstrated sensitivity to the cognitive deficits associated with chronic alcoholism and an ability to differentiate between gradations of impairment. However, findings relating to the other psychometric qualities of the tests, including those important for the accurate assessment and monitoring of ARCI (e.g., test-retest reliability), were entirely absent or limited. Additionally, the synthesis of neuropsychological outcomes presented here supports the recent impetus for a move away from discrete diagnoses (e.g., KS, ARD) and the distinctions between them toward more broad and inclusive diagnostic conceptualizations of ARCI, thereby recognizing the heterogeneity in presentation. Conclusions: Based on the evidence reviewed, provisional recommendations for appropriate tests in each domain of assessment are presented, though further validation of most tests is warranted. Review findings can support efficient and evidenced-based test-selection and guide future research in this area.

Cognitive estimation: Performance of patients with focal frontal and posterior lesions

The Cognitive Estimation Test (CET) is a widely used test to investigate estimation abilities requiring complex processes such as reasoning, the development and application of appropriate strategies, response plausibility checking as well as general knowledge and numeracy (e.g., Shallice and Evans, 1978; MacPherson et al., 2014). Thus far, it remains unknown whether the CET is both sensitive and specific to frontal lobe dysfunction. Neuroimaging techniques may not represent a useful methodology for answering this question since the complex processes involved are likely to be associated with a large network of brain regions, some of which are not functionally necessary to successfully carry out the CET. Instead, neuropsychological studies may represent a more promising investigation tool for identifying the brain areas necessary for CET performance. We recently developed two new versions of the CET (CET-A and CET-B; MacPherson et al., 2014). We investigated the overall performance and conducted an error analysis on CET-A in patients with focal, unilateral, frontal (n = 38) or posterior (n = 22) lesions and healthy controls (n = 39). We found that frontal patients' performance was impaired compared to healthy controls on CET. We also found that frontal patients generated significantly poorer estimates than posterior patients on CET-A. This could not be explained by impairments in fluid intelligence. The error analyses suggested that for CET-A, extreme and very extreme responses are impaired following frontal lobe damage. However, only very extreme responses are significantly more impaired following frontal lobe than posterior damage and so represent a measure restricted to frontal "executive" impairment, in addition to overall CET performance.

Deconstructing the Cognitive Estimation Task: A Developmental Examination and Intra-Task Contrast

The cognitive estimation task (CET) requires participants to answer estimation questions that lack definitive answers. Few studies examine CET performance in healthy populations, and even fewer in children. Previous research has not considered differences between categories within the CET. The categories differ in their reliance on units of measurement, which is significant when examining CET performance in children due to educational factors. The goal of the study was to examine CET performance in 10 and 12 year-old children and contrast the CET categories. We found a developmental effect in overall CET performance: children’s performance was more extreme than adults but no differences were found between the groups of children. Examination of the CET categories revealed differential developmental trajectories: the children’s scores were more extreme in weight and time, while comparable to adults in quantity. We conclude that CET questions that require application of units of measurement are more difficult for childern due to higher involvement of executive functions, and children have less experience applying them in daily life. The CET is not a unified construct and has the potential to shed light on how children acquire an understanding of magnitudes and units of measurement.

Changes in cognitive function after pediatric intensive care unit rounds: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Mental fatigue is impaired cognitive function induced by engaging in cognitively demanding activities. Pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) rounds are demanding and may be a cause of impaired cognitive functioning. The purpose of this study is to evaluate if PICU rounds induce poorer performance on cognitive tasks after rounds compared to before rounds and assess the feasibility of cognitive testing in the PICU.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of residents in the PICU. Participants were evaluated before and after rounds on a single day, consisting of two tests of cognitive function that are sensitive to mental fatigue, the cognitive estimation test (CET) and the repeatable episodic memory test (REMT).

RESULTS

Thirty residents participated. The mean length of rounds was 191 min (SD 33.8 min), the mean number of patients rounded on by the team was 14.9 (SD 2.3) and the median patients presented by the participant was two (range 0-6). The average number of words recalled on the REMT was significantly lower after rounds compared to before (29.6 vs. 31.2, p < 0.05). There were significantly more falsely recalled words after rounds (1.3 vs. 0.7, p=0.02). There was a correlation between worsening performance and later time of testing in the 4-week PICU rotation (r=0.42, p < 0.02). There were no differences in performance on the CET.

CONCLUSIONS

PICU rounds induced impairments on cognitive testing but the effect size is small and not consistent across tests. There is an increased susceptibility to impaired cognition induced by rounds over the course of a rotation, this finding merits further investigation.

How many segments are there in an orange: normative data for the new Cognitive Estimation Task in an Italian population

The Cognitive Estimation Test (CET) is widely used by clinicians to assess frontal executive dysfunction. In the present work, the Italian standardization of a new version of the CET is provided. This version consists of two 9-item parallel forms (A and B) that were administered to two hundred and twenty-seven healthy Italian male and female participants aged between 19 and 91 years with 5-24 years of full-time education. Performance on the CET was not related to age or level of education; both forms showed a male CET advantage. The new CET is a useful tool for clinicians and researchers to administer the CET more than once without practice effects, which is considered important when assessing frontal executive abilities.

Disentangling the relationship between cognitive estimation abilities and executive functions: a study on patients with Parkinson's disease

The cognitive estimation test (CET) measures cognitive estimation abilities: it assesses the ability to apply reasoning strategies to answer questions that usually cannot lead to a clear and exact reply. Since it requires the activation of an intricate ensemble of cognitive functions, there is an ongoing debate in the literature regarding whether the CET represents a measurement of global cognitive abilities or a pure measure of executive functions. In the present study, CET together with a neuropsychological assessment focused on executive functions was administered in thirty patients with Parkinson's disease without signs of dementia. The CET correlated with measures of verbal working memory and semantic knowledge, but not with other dimensions of executive domains, such as verbal phonemic fluency, ability to manage real-world interferences, or visuospatial reasoning. According to our results, cognitive estimation abilities appeared to trigger a defined cognitive path that includes executive functions, namely, working memory and semantic knowledge.

Bringing the cognitive estimation task into the 21st century: normative data on two new parallel forms

The Cognitive Estimation Test (CET) is widely used by clinicians and researchers to assess the ability to produce reasonable cognitive estimates. Although several studies have published normative data for versions of the CET, many of the items are now outdated and parallel forms of the test do not exist to allow cognitive estimation abilities to be assessed on more than one occasion. In the present study, we devised two new 9-item parallel forms of the CET. These versions were administered to 184 healthy male and female participants aged 18–79 years with 9–22 years of education. Increasing age and years of education were found to be associated with successful CET performance as well as gender, intellect, naming, arithmetic and semantic memory abilities. To validate that the parallel forms of the CET were sensitive to frontal lobe damage, both versions were administered to 24 patients with frontal lobe lesions and 48 age-, gender- and education-matched controls. The frontal patients’ error scores were significantly higher than the healthy controls on both versions of the task. This study provides normative data for parallel forms of the CET for adults which are also suitable for assessing frontal lobe dysfunction on more than one occasion without practice effects.

Investigating higher-order cognitive functions in temporal lobe epilepsy: cognitive estimation

Cognitive estimation, an ability to attribute measurements to concrete things, is relevant to adaptive behavior. This study evaluated cognitive estimation in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) with the goal of verifying its relationship to temporal lobe damage and age of seizure onset. One hundred and eight patients with drug-resistant TLE and 51 healthy controls were evaluated using the Cognitive Estimation Task (CET), which requires simple and complex estimations providing the Total and Bizarreness scores. Different tests assessed reasoning, attention, executive, visuospatial, and lexical-semantic abilities. Patients with right TLE had earlier age of seizure onset than patients with left TLE and lower education than controls. Compared with controls, both patient groups obtained worse CET Total and Bizarreness scores, but only patients with right TLE were significantly impaired. Patients with seizure onset before age 12 showed worse scores than patients with later seizure onset irrespective of the side of TLE. The CET Total and Bizarreness scores were predicted by age of seizure onset and semantic fluency; the Bizarreness score also related to education, chronological age, and visual attention. Results highlight the complexity of the cognitive pattern associated with TLE. Cognitive estimation deficit primarily reflects early age of seizure onset and semantic difficulties. An involvement of visual mental operations mediated by the right hemisphere may accentuate the deficit, while cognitive reserve may play a protective role.