Risk scores as useful predictors of perioperative complications in patients with rectal cancer who received radical surgery

Prognostic value of postoperative decrease of albumin (ΔAlb) in combination with GLIM-defined malnutrition for the prediction of postoperative outcomes in rectal cancer patients with normal preoperative albumin levels

Objective

This study aims to explore the prognostic value of ΔAlb in combination with malnutrition for postoperative outcomes in rectal cancer patients with normal preoperative albumin levels.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study of patients undergoing proctectomy for rectal cancer at our department between January 2013 and April 2019. Malnutrition was defined according to the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) criteria. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the cut-off values for ΔAlb. Univariate and multivariate analyses evaluating the risk factors for postoperative complications and ΔAlb were performed.

Results

A total of 526 patients were enrolled in this study. ∆Alb was significantly associated with postoperative complications in patients with normal preoperative albumin levels (AUC = 0.651, p < 0.001), but was not in patients with hypoalbuminemia (p = 0.808). The optimal cut-off value was established at 16%. ∆ALB ≥ 16% and malnutrition were both independent risk factors for postoperative complications with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.179 and 1.730, respectively. When combined then together, the OR would reach to 3.779. On the other hand, low muscle mass (OR = 2.058, p < 0.001), tumor location in the lower third (OR = 2.909, p < 0.001), and surgical duration ≥ 180 min (OR = 1.659, p = 0.01) were identified as independent risk factors associated with ∆ALB.

Conclusion

ΔAlb in combination with GLIM-defined malnutrition would enhance the predictive value for postoperative outcomes in rectal cancer patients with normal preoperative albumin levels, and it is necessary to conduct a nutritional assessment for then.

Early prediction of anastomotic leakage after rectal cancer surgery: Onodera prognostic nutritional index combined with inflammation-related biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Anastomotic leakage (AL) is a serious complication following rectal cancer surgery and is associated with increased recurrence, mortality, extended hospital stays, and delayed chemotherapy. The Onodera prognostic nutritional index (OPNI) and inflammation-related biomarkers, such as the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), have been studied in the context of cancer prognosis, but their combined efficacy in predicting AL remains unclear.

AIM

To investigate the relationships between AL and these markers and developed a predictive model for AL.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study analyzed the outcomes of 434 patients who had undergone surgery for rectal cancer at a tertiary cancer center from 2016 to 2023. The patients were divided into two groups on the basis of the occurrence of AL: One group consisted of patients who experienced AL (n = 49), and the other group did not (n = 385). The investigation applied logistic regression to develop a risk prediction model utilizing clinical, pathological, and laboratory data. The efficacy of this model was then evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

In the present study, 11.28% of the participants (49 out of 434 participants) suffered from AL. Multivariate analysis revealed that preoperative levels of the OPNI, NLR, and PLR emerged as independent risk factors for AL, with odds ratios of 0.705 (95%CI: 0.641-0.775, P = 0.012), 1.628 (95%CI: 1.221-2.172, P = 0.024), and 0.994 (95%CI: 0.989-0.999, P = 0.031), respectively. These findings suggest that these biomarkers could effectively predict AL risk. Furthermore, the proposed predictive model has superior discriminative ability, as demonstrated by an area under the curve of 0.910, a sensitivity of 0.898, and a specificity of 0.826, reflecting its high level of accuracy.

CONCLUSION

The risk of AL in rectal cancer surgery patients can be effectively predicted by assessing the preoperative levels of serum nutritional biomarkers and inflammatory indicators, emphasizing their importance in the preoperative evaluation process.

Clinical Significance of Blood Cell-Derived Inflammation Markers in Assessing Potential Early and Late Postoperative Complications in Patients with Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review

Background/Objectives: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most prevalent malignancies worldwide. Despite advancements in surgical techniques and oncological treatments, postoperative complications remain a significant challenge, affecting both immediate recovery and long-term survival. Systemic inflammation has been identified as a critical factor influencing cancer progression and postoperative outcomes. This systematic review evaluates the clinical significance of blood cell-derived inflammatory markers in predicting early and late postoperative complications in CRC patients. Methods: We included studies involving adult patients (≥18 years) with histologically confirmed colorectal cancer, for whom elective radical surgery was performed, as well as at least one of the considered blood-based inflammatory biomarkers (NLR, PLR, SII, or LMR) documented in relation to outcomes. Results: After removing duplicates, 19 studies published between 2016 and 2025 were included in the qualitative analysis. A total of 7023 patients who underwent elective curative surgery for colorectal cancer were analyzed, with mean age varying widely between 47.3 and 74.6 years. Preoperative NLR values were significantly correlated with severe complications, IAI, AL, and overall complications in 13 out of 19 studies (68.4%), with a cutoff value between 2.21 and 4, while early postoperative NLR values were predictive for AL. Late postoperative complications, such as recurrence and overall survival, were also associated with elevated preoperative NLR and PLR values. However, variability in study designs, patient populations, and cutoff values for these indices contributed to inconsistent findings. Conclusions: Blood cell-derived inflammatory markers offer a valuable, non-invasive tool for assessing postoperative risks in patients with CRC. New design nomograms or risk scores that include, beside blood cell-derived inflammation markers, other relevant data, could ensure an optimal predictive value that could be easily used in clinical practice for personalized risk management in patients with colorectal cancer.

Risk Factors for Anastomotic Leak in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Rectal Cancer Resection: A Retrospective Analysis

Introduction Anastomotic leakage (AL) is one of the most severe complications following rectal cancer (RC) surgery, with significant implications for morbidity, mortality, and oncological outcomes. Identifying risk factors associated with AL may enhance surgical decision-making and improve patient prognosis. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including 42 adult patients who underwent RC resection at a hospital in Mexico City between January 2015 and December 2022. Demographic, clinical, pathological, and surgical variables were analyzed to assess their association with AL. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors. Results The overall incidence of AL was 11.9%, consistent with previous literature. Univariate analysis revealed no significant differences in patient-related factors such as age, BMI, ASA classification, diabetes mellitus, smoking, or biochemical markers (p>0.05). Treatment-related factors such as neoadjuvant therapy and diverting stoma (DS) placement did not show a significant association with AL. However, surgical factors played a crucial role: operative time was significantly longer in patients with AL (349.0 vs. 232.9 minutes, p=0.024), intraoperative blood loss was markedly higher (800.0 vs. 198.6 mL, p<0.001), and transfusion rates were elevated (60.0% vs. 13.5%, p=0.040). Tumor location in the middle rectum was more frequent among AL cases (60.0% vs. 18.9%, p=0.090). Postoperative complications were significantly more severe in patients with AL, with prolonged hospital stays (20.0 vs. 10.2 days, p=0.043) and increased reintervention rates (80.0% vs. 5.6%, p<0.001). In the logistic regression model, none of the analyzed variables reached statistical significance (p>0.99). However, operative time showed an odds ratio (OR) of 1.736 (p=0.997), suggesting that for each additional minute of surgery, the risk of AL could increase by 73.6%. Despite this trend, the wide confidence interval limits its precision and clinical applicability. Age showed an OR of 0.023 (p=0.998), potentially suggesting a 97.7% reduction in leakage risk for each additional year, although this result was not statistically significant and should be interpreted with caution. Conclusion Although no statistically significant risk factors were identified in the multivariate analysis, intraoperative variables such as prolonged surgical time, high blood loss, and transfusion requirement emerged as clinically relevant trends. These findings emphasize the need for optimizing surgical techniques and perioperative management to mitigate AL risk. Further studies with larger sample sizes are necessary to validate these associations and improve risk stratification models.

LABORATORY PREDICTORS FOR DIAGNOSING COLORECTAL ANASTOMOTIC LEAKAGE

BACKGROUND

An important concern in oncological coloproctology is colorectal anastomotic leakage (AL), which occurs in 3.5%-21% of patients. Predicting the occurrence of failure based on the results of laboratory markers can be decisive for the treatment of this complication.

AIM

To improve the early diagnosis of AL by establishing combinations and threshold values of laboratory markers - predictors of the inflammatory process.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The prospective study, conducted from 2020 to 2023, included 213 rectal cancer patients who underwent low anterior resection after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. The inflammatory biomarkers were assessed before surgery and on the 3rd, 5th, and 7th days of the postoperative period.

RESULTS

AL diagnosed in 25 (11.74%) patients by the grade of severity was as follows: A (radiological) in 7 (3.29%) patients; B (clinical) - 4 (1.88%); C (clinically expressed, peritonitis) - 11 (5.16%), and P (late) - 3 (1.41%) patients. The changes in the laboratory indicators of the inflammatory response such as С-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), the counts of neutrophils (NEU), lymphocytes (LYM), platelets (PLT), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were significant only in B or C AL grades. Among them, only three indicators were identified as significant for predicting AL when assessed 24 h before the onset of this complication, namely LYM (threshold value ≤ 0.97 × 103/mm3, sensitivity 66.7% and specificity 81.3%, p < 0.001); PLT (threshold value > > 257 103/mm3, sensitivity 58.6%, and specificity 86.7%, p < 0.001); and NLR (threshold value > 4.42, sensitivity 58.1%, and specificity 86.7%, p < 0.001). The three-factor model based on these selected indicators was set up, and the prognosis index (Prog) was proposed with the decision threshold Progcrit = 2.23. The sensitivity of the model was 80% (95% CI 51.9%-95.7%), and the specificity - 74.2% (67.6%-80.2%).

CONCLUSION

Based on the routine laboratory predictors used in the complex diagnosis of AL, B or C AL grades may be predicted allowing for the timely effective early diagnosis, medication, and surgical intervention..

Automated Identification of Postoperative Infections to Allow Prediction and Surveillance Based on Electronic Health Record Data: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Postoperative infections remain a crucial challenge in health care, resulting in high morbidity, mortality, and costs. Accurate identification and labeling of patients with postoperative bacterial infections is crucial for developing prediction models, validating biomarkers, and implementing surveillance systems in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE

This scoping review aimed to explore methods for identifying patients with postoperative infections using electronic health record (EHR) data to go beyond the reference standard of manual chart review.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search strategy across PubMed, Embase, Web of Science (Core Collection), the Cochrane Library, and Emcare (Ovid), targeting studies addressing the prediction and fully automated surveillance (ie, without manual check) of diverse bacterial infections in the postoperative setting. For prediction modeling studies, we assessed the labeling methods used, categorizing them as either manual or automated. We evaluated the different types of EHR data needed for the surveillance and labeling of postoperative infections, as well as the performance of fully automated surveillance systems compared with manual chart review.

RESULTS

We identified 75 different methods and definitions used to identify patients with postoperative infections in studies published between 2003 and 2023. Manual labeling was the predominant method in prediction modeling research, 65% (49/75) of the identified methods use structured data, and 45% (34/75) use free text and clinical notes as one of their data sources. Fully automated surveillance systems should be used with caution because the reported positive predictive values are between 0.31 and 0.76.

CONCLUSIONS

There is currently no evidence to support fully automated labeling and identification of patients with infections based solely on structured EHR data. Future research should focus on defining uniform definitions, as well as prioritizing the development of more scalable, automated methods for infection detection using structured EHR data.

Negative and Positive Predictors of Anastomotic Leakage in Colorectal Cancer Patients-The Case of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio

Colorectal surgery for cancer is associated with a high rate of surgical complications, including anastomotic leakage. The ability to predict the risk of leakage early enough seems to be of high value, since it would facilitate the design of personalized treatment and duration of hospitalization. Although different studies present the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR] as having a strong predictive value, there is a discrepancy with respect to which postoperative day is the most reliable. We evaluated a series of NLR values, from the day before surgery up to the POD7, in a cohort of 245 colorectal surgery patients in order to clarify the best predictable score for the identification of the risk of anastomotic leakage. There were 28 patients with leaks. ROC curve analysis of NLR on POD1 indicates that a cut-off point ≥ 7.4 exerts a negative prediction for leakage (AUC 0.881, sensitivity 68.7%, specificity 96.4%, PPV 28.4%, and NPV of 99.3%), thus excluding 150 patients from the risk of leakage. Furthermore, the ROC curve analysis of NLR on POD4 indicates that a cut-off point ≥ 6.5 gives a positive prediction of leakage (AUC 0.698, sensitivity 82.1%, specificity 51.6%, PPV 17.6%, and NPV of 95.6%), thus indicating 52 patients as being at high risk of leakage. Finally, NLR failed to identify five leaks out of twenty-eight. These results strongly indicate the ability of NLR on POD1 to predict patients at low risk of developing a leak and then on POD4 to predict the high-risk patients. This makes our study particularly innovative, in that it enables doctors to concentrate on potential high-risk patients from POD1.

Preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts symptomatic anastomotic leakage in elderly colon cancer patients: Multicenter propensity score-matched analysis

BACKGROUND

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), a composite inflammatory biomarker, is associated with the prognosis in patients with colorectal tumors. However, whether the NLR can be used as a predictor of symptomatic postoperative anastomotic leakage (AL) in elderly patients with colon cancer is unclear.

AIM

To assess the role of the NLR in predicting the occurrence of symptomatic AL after surgery in elderly patients with colon cancer.

METHODS

Data from elderly colon cancer patients who underwent elective radical colectomy with anastomosis at three centers between 2018 and 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine the best predictive cutoff value for the NLR. Twenty-two covariates were matched using a 1:1 propensity score matching method, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine risk factors for the development of postoperative AL.

RESULTS

Of the 577 patients included, 36 (6.2%) had symptomatic AL. The optimal cutoff value of the NLR for predicting AL was 2.66. After propensity score matching, the incidence of AL was significantly greater in the ≥ 2.66 NLR subgroup than in the < 2.66 NLR subgroup (11.5% vs 2.5%; P = 0.012). Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed statistically significant correlations between blood transfusion intraoperatively and within 2 d postoperatively, preoperative albumin concentration, preoperative prognostic nutritional index, and preoperative NLR and AL occurrence (P < 0.05); multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that an NLR ≥ 2.66 [odds ratio (OR) = 5.51; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.50-20.26; P = 0.010] and blood transfusion intraoperatively and within 2 d postoperatively (OR = 2.52; 95%CI: 0.88-7.25; P = 0.049) were risk factors for the occurrence of symptomatic AL.

CONCLUSION

A preoperative NLR ≥ 2.66 and blood transfusion intraoperatively and within 2 d postoperatively are associated with a higher incidence of postoperative symptomatic AL in elderly patients with colon cancer. The preoperative NLR has predictive value for postoperative symptomatic AL after elective surgery in elderly patients with colon cancer.

Preoperative Prognostic Nutritional Index was not predictive of short-term complications after laparoscopic resection for rectal cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) is a useful tool to predict short-term results in patients undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal cancer. Few studies have addressed this issue in colorectal cancer or specifically in rectal cancer. We evaluated the prognostic relevance of preoperative PNI on morbidity of patients undergoing laparoscopic curative resection for rectal cancer (LCRRC).

METHODS

PNI data and clinico-pathological characteristics of LCRRC patients (June 2005-December 2020) were evaluated. Patients with metastatic disease were excluded. Postoperative complications were evaluated using the Clavien-Dindo classification.

RESULTS

A total of 182 patients were included in the analysis. Median preoperative PNI was 36.5 (IQR 32.8-41.2). Lower PNI was associated with females (p=0.02), older patients (p=0.0002), comorbidity status (p<0.0001), and those who did not receive neoadjuvant treatment (p=0.01). Post-operative complications occurred in 53 patients (29.1%), by the Clavien-Dindo classification: 40 grades I-II and 13 grades III-V. Median preoperative PNI was 35.0 (31.8-40.0) in complicated patients and 37.0 (33.0-41.5) in uncomplicated patients (p=0.09). PNI showed poor discriminative performance regarding postoperative morbidity (AUC 0.57) and was not associated with postoperative morbidity (OR 0.97) at multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative PNI was not associated with postoperative morbidity after LCRRC. Further research should focus on different nutritional indicators or hematological/immunological biomarkers.

Preoperative Immuno-Nutrition and Complications After Colorectal Surgery: Results of a 2-Year Prospective Study

INTRODUCTION

Preoperative immuno-nutrition has been associated with reductions in infectious complications and length of stay, but remains unstudied in the setting of an enhanced recovery protocol. The objective was to evaluate outcomes after elective colorectal surgery with the addition of a preoperative immuno-nutrition supplement.

METHODS

In October 2017, all major colorectal surgeries were given an arginine-based supplement prior to surgery. The control group consisted of cases within the same enhanced recovery protocol from three years prior. The primary outcome was a composite of overall morbidity. Secondary outcomes were infectious complications and length of stay with subgroup analysis based on degrees of malnutrition.

RESULTS

Of 826 patients, 514 were given immuno-nutrition prospectively and no differences in complication rates (21.5% versus 23.9%, P = 0.416) or surgical site infections (SSIs) (6.4% versus 6.9%, P = 0.801) were observed. Hospitalization was slightly shorter in the immuno-nutrition cohort (5.0 [3.0, 7.0], versus 5.5 days [3.6, 7.9], P = 0.002). There was a clinically insignificant difference in prognostic nutrition index scores between cohorts (35.2 ± 5.6 versus 36.1 ± 5.0, P = 0.021); however, subgroup analysis (< 33, 34-38 and > 38) failed to demonstrate an association with complications (P = 0.275) or SSIs (P = 0.640) and immuno-nutrition use.

CONCLUSIONS

Complication rates and SSIs were unchanged with the addition of immuno-nutrition before elective colorectal surgery. The association with length of stay is small and without clinical significance; therefore, the routine use of immuno-nutrition in this setting is of questionable benefit.

Nomogram for predicting the probability of permanent stoma in patients with acute obstructive colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Acute obstructive colorectal cancer is a high-risk emergency among colorectal cancer (CRC). Approximately 20% of CRC patients are associated with a permanent stoma, which greatly affects the lifestyle of patients. This study aimed to investigate risk factors for predicting permanent stoma (PS) in patients with acute obstructive colorectal cancer.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical-pathological features of patients with acute obstructive colorectal cancer who underwent treatments from our hospital between January 2015 and December 2020. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the risk factors for predicting PS chances of CRC patients using a nomogram method. Furthermore, the operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the discrimination power of the nomogram. Calibration plot was used to evaluate nomogram's calibration.

RESULTS

A total of 98 patients with acute obstructive colorectal cancer were enrolled in this study, including 24 PS patients with permanent stoma and 74 non-PS patients. Multivariate analysis showed that age [odds ratio (OR): 1.068, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.006 ~ 1.135, P = 0.032], carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) [OR: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.003 ~ 1.028, P = 0.013], and surgical method [emergency group vs. stent group, OR: 14.066, 95% CI: 3.625 ~ 54.572, p < 0.001] were independent risk factors for PS. These risk factors were incorporated into a nomogram and showed that the AUC of the nomogram was 0.867 (95% CI: 0.782-0.951). The calibration plot got consistent with prediction for PS in the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

Age, CEA, and surgical method were independent risk factors for PS in patients with acute obstructive colorectal cancer. Our nomogram has favorable predictive power for PS in CRC patients.

Predictive value of the Naples prognostic score on postoperative outcomes in patients with rectal cancer

PURPOSE

The Naples prognostic score (NPS) is a prognostic index based on the nutritional and inflammatory status. However, its utility in predicting postoperative complications (POCs) has not been examined in rectal cancer (RC). We evaluated the predictive value of the preoperative NPS for POCs in RC.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 235 patients who underwent surgery for RC. The NPS was calculated based on serum albumin, serum total cholesterol, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR). Severe POCs were defined as Clavien-Dindo classification grade ≥ III. The optimal cut-off value of the NPS was determined by a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The NPS, NLR, LMR, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), C-reactive protein (CRP)-to-albumin ratio (CAR), Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), Onodera prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and controlling nutritional status score (CONUT) were investigated as inflammation-based and/or nutritional markers. Predictors of severe POCs were analyzed by logistic regression modeling.

RESULTS

Severe POCs were observed in 64 patients (27.2%). Male sex, operation time (> 257 min), blood loss (≥ 30 mL), albumin (< 4.0 g/dL), CRP (≥ 1.0 mg/dL), total cholesterol (≤ 180 mg/dL), NPS (≥ 2), LMR (≥ 3.48), PLR (≥ 103.6), CAR (> 0.025), GPS (≥ 1), PNI (< 48.1) and CONUT (≥ 2) were significantly associated with severe POCs. The multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, operation time (> 257 min), and a high NPS (≥ 2) were independent predictors of severe POCs. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the NPS had the greatest predictive value among the inflammation-based and/or nutritional markers.

CONCLUSION

The NPS is a valuable predictor of severe POCs in RC.

A nomogram to predict the risk of colorectal anastomotic leakage combining inflammatory-nutritional and abdominal aorta calcium index

Background

Anastomotic leakage is a serious complication after colorectal cancer surgery, which affects the quality of life and the prognosis. This study aims to create a novel nomogram to predict the risk of anastomotic leakage for patients with colorectal cancer based on the preoperative inflammatory-nutritional index and abdominal aorta calcium index.

Methods

292 patients at Tianjin Medical University General Hospital (Tianjin, China) from January 2018 to October 2021 who underwent colorectal cancer surgery with a primary anastomosis were retrospectively reviewed. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of multivariate logistic regression model. The calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to verify the efficacy of the nomogram.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that tumor location (P = 0.002), preoperative albumin (P = 0.006), preoperative lymphocyte (P = 0.035), preoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (P = 0.024), and superior mesenteric artery calcium volumes score (P = 0.004) were identified as the independent risk factors for postoperative anastomotic leakage in patients with colorectal carcinoma. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of the multivariate analysis, and the C-index of the calibration curves was 0.913 (95%CI: 0.870-0.957) in the training cohort and 0.840 (95%CI: 0.753-0.927) in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

The nomogram, combining basic variables, inflammatory-nutritional index and abdominal aorta calcium index, could effectively predict the possibility of postoperative anastomotic leakage for patients with colorectal cancer, which could guide surgeons to carry out the appropriate treatment for the prevention of anastomotic leakage.

Inflammatory Indexes as Predictive Biomarkers of Postoperative Complications in Oncological Thoracic Surgery

The role of inflammatory responses in predicting outcomes in oncological thoracic surgery is still unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate a series of blood count inflammation indexes as predicting factors for postoperative complications. We retrospectively studied 249 patients undergoing elective thoracic surgery in our institution between 2008 and 2020. A total of 184 patients underwent open surgery, and 65 underwent VATS. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte (MLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte (PLR) ratios, Systemic Inflammation Response Index (SIRI) were calculated preoperatively and on the first and fourth postoperative days, as well as a new derivative index, the Aggregate Inflammation Systemic Index (AISI). Univariate correlations evidenced a statistically significant association between the NLR at the fourth postoperative day and the occurrence of surgical complications in the global cohort (rho = 0.15, p = 0.03). A similar significant association with MLR on the fourth postoperative day is found in the open group (rho = -0.15, p = 0.048). NLR and LMR on the fourth postoperative day are associated with postoperative complications in the whole and open groups, respectively. Simple, easy-to-perform and inexpensive, blood cell count indexes may be useful in predicting complications in oncological thoracic surgery. A greater number of broader, prospective, randomized studies are necessary to confirm these findings.

Inflammation-Based Score (Combination of Platelet Count and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio) Predicts Pharyngocutaneous Fistula After Total Laryngectomy

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS

Postoperative complications may depend on the systemic inflammatory response. We evaluated the predictive potential of the combination of platelet count and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (COP-NLR) for the incidence of pharyngocutaneous fistula (PCF) in patients who have undergone total laryngectomy.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

Patients who underwent total laryngectomy between 2000 and 2020 were recruited from four hospitals. The correlations between the incidence of PCF and several risk factors, including the COP-NLR, were examined. Patients with both elevated platelet count and elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were categorized as COP-NLR 2, and patients with either one or no abnormal values of both parameters were assigned as COP-NLR 1 and COP-NLR 0, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 235 patients were identified. The overall incidence of PCF was 12.3%. The cut-off value for NLR before surgery was set at 3.95 (sensitivity = 58.6%, specificity = 69.4%, area under the curve [AUC] = 0.635), and the platelet count was set at 320 × 10⁹ /L (sensitivity = 27.6%, specificity = 87.9%, AUC = 0.571). Multivariate analysis revealed that COP-NLR was an independent risk factor for PCF (COP-NLR 1 vs. COP-NLR 0: odds ratio [OR], 4.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.64 to 10.59; and COP-NLR 2 vs. COP-NLR 0: OR, 5.33; 95% CI, 1.38 to 20.56).

CONCLUSIONS

COP-NLR is a novel predictive factor for the development of PCF in patients undergoing total laryngectomy.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4 Laryngoscope, 2021.

Peripheral blood inflammation indices are effective predictors of anastomotic leakage in elective esophageal surgery

BACKGROUND

This study investigated the predictive value of peripheral inflammatory indices, including neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, platelet count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), in anastomotic leakage during elective esophageal surgery.

METHODS

This retrospective study included all patients who underwent esophagectomy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma from 2016 to 2020 in our institution. The peripheral blood inflammatory indices were obtained on preoperative days 1-7 (PRD 1-7), and postoperative days 1-3 (POD 1-3) and 4-7 (POD 4-7). Univariate, multivariate logistic, and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were conducted to evaluate the diagnostic value of these peripheral blood inflammatory indices.

RESULTS

A total of 198 patients were included in the study, and 25 (13%) patients experienced anastomotic leakage. Multivariate analyses identified diet, neutrophil count, and PLR on POD 1-3, and NLR on POD 4-7 as independent factors associated with anastomotic leakage. Using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the variable with the best area under curve was a neutrophil cutoff count of 4.1 [0.737; 95% CI: 0.639-0.835], with a sensitivity and specificity of 60.0% and 66.5%, respectively. This was followed by an NLR cutoff value of 9.5 on POD 4-7 (0.628; 95% CI: 0.505-0.752) and a cutoff PLR value of 220.1 on POD 1-3 (0.643; 95% CI: 0.536-0.750). Diet showed a poor result on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Neutrophil count and PLR on POD 1-3 and NLR on POD 4-7 were shown to have predictive value for anastomotic leakage in elective esophageal surgery.

Computed tomography-derived biomarker for predicting the treatment response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy of rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Malignant tumor essentially implies structural heterogeneity. Analysis of medical imaging can quantify this structural heterogeneity, which can be a new biomarker. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of texture analysis of computed tomography (CT) imaging as a biomarker for predicting the therapeutic response of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer.

METHODS

We enrolled 76 patients with rectal cancer who underwent curative surgery after nCRT. Texture analyses (Fractal analysis and Histogram analysis) were applied to contrast-enhanced CT images, and fractal dimension (FD), skewness, and kurtosis of the tumor were calculated. These CT-derived parameters were compared with the therapeutic response and prognosis.

RESULTS

Forty-six of 76 patients were diagnosed as clinical responders after nCRT. Kurtosis was significantly higher in the responders group than in the non-responders group (4.17 ± 4.16 vs. 2.62 ± 3.19, p = 0.04). Nine of 76 patients were diagnosed with pathological complete response (pCR) after surgery. FD of the pCR group was significantly lower than that of the non-pCR group (0.90 ± 0.12 vs. 1.01 ± 0.12, p = 0.009). The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of tumor FD for predicting pCR was 0.77, and the optimal cut-off value was 0.84 (accuracy; 93.4%). Furthermore, patients with lower FD tumors tended to show better relapse-free survival and disease-specific survival than those with higher FD tumors (5-year, 80.8 vs. 66.6%, 94.4 vs. 80.2%, respectively), although it was not statistically significant (p = 0.14, 0.11).

CONCLUSIONS

CT-derived texture parameters could be potential biomarkers for predicting the therapeutic response of rectal cancer.

Metabolic Syndrome, as Defined Based on Parameters Including Visceral Fat Area, Predicts Complications After Surgery for Rectal Cancer

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has become a major public health problem. However, few studies have examined the impact of MetS on the postoperative complications of colorectal cancer and the conclusions remain controversial. The present study aimed to investigate whether MetS, as defined based on visceral fat area (VFA) instead of BMI or waist circumference, would predict complications after surgery for rectal cancer.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of patients who underwent surgery for rectal cancer at our department between January 2013 and August 2018. Univariate and multivariate analyses evaluating the risk factors for postoperative complications were performed. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the gender-specific cut-off values for VFA.

RESULTS

A total of 381 patients were included in the study. The optimal cut-off values for VFA were 117.9 cm² for men and 76.9 cm² for women, and 153 patients were diagnosed as having MetS. The rate of postoperative complication was significantly higher in the MetS group than that in the non-MetS group (34.6% versus 15.8%, P < 0.001). The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that MetS (OR 3.712, P < 0.001), NRS 2002 scores ≥ 3 (OR 2.563, P = 0.001), and tumor located at the lower 1/3 (OR 3.290, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for complications after surgery for rectal cancer.

CONCLUSION

Metabolic syndrome, as defined based on parameters including visceral fat area, was an independent risk factor for complications after surgery for rectal cancer.

Blood cell count indexes as predictors of anastomotic leakage in elective colorectal surgery: a multicenter study on 1432 patients

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate a series of blood count inflammation indexes in predicting anastomotic leakage (AL) in elective colorectal surgery.

METHODS

Demographic, pathologic, and clinical data of 1432 consecutive patients submitted to colorectal surgery in eight surgical centers were retrospectively evaluated. The neutrophil to lymphocyte (NLR), derived neutrophil to lymphocyte (dNLR), lymphocyte to monocyte (LMR), and platelet to lymphocyte (PLR) ratios were calculated before surgery and on the 1st and 4th postoperative days, in patients with or without AL.

RESULTS

There were 106 patients with AL (65 males, mean age 67.4 years). The NLR, dNLR, and PLR were significantly higher in patients with AL in comparison to those without, on both the 1st and 4th postoperative days, but significance was greater on the 4th postoperative day. An NLR cutoff value of 7.1 on this day showed the best area under the curve (AUC 0.744; 95% CI 0.719-0.768) in predicting AL.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the blood cell indexes of inflammation evaluated, NLR on the 4th postoperative day showed the best ability to predict AL. NLR is a low cost, easy to perform, and widely available index, which might be potentially used in clinical practice as a predictor of AL in patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery.

Development and validation of a nomogram incorporating selected systemic inflammation-based prognostic marker for complication prediction after vascularized fibula flap reconstruction

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram incorporating systemic inflammatory markers (the Albumin/NLR Score [ANS]) to predict postoperative complications after vascularized fibula flap reconstruction.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 238 patients who underwent vascularized fibula flap reconstruction between March 2012 and December 2016 were collected as the primary cohort. Univariable and multivariable analysis were performed to identify independent risk factors for postoperative complications. Backward stepwise logistic regression analysis was then applied with and without the ANS; and nomograms were established based on these criteria. Independent validation of these nomograms was carried out in an independent validation cohort including 106 consecutive patients from December 2016 and January 2018.

RESULTS

Radiotherapy history (odds ratio [OR] = 0.336; 95% CI, 0.157-0.717; P = 0.005), the ANS (OR = 0.248; 95% CI, 0.093-0.661; P = 0.005) and fluid infusion rate over 24 h (OR = 0.671; 95% CI, 0.479-0.94; P = 0.02) were identified as independent risk factors for postoperative complications. A higher C-index was found in both the primary (0.759; 95% CI, 0.719-0.739) and validation cohort (0.704; 95% CI, 0.613-0.659) for the nomogram incorporating the ANS, and NRI was 0.496 (95% CI, 0.072-0.920; P = 0.022) comparing of these nomograms. Furthermore, a wider threshold probability (0.2-0.9) and superior clinical value were observed in the nomogram incorporating the ANS on the decision curve.

CONCLUSION

The ANS was an independent risk factor for postoperative complications associated with vascularized fibula flap reconstruction. The nomogram incorporating the ANS was established with better accuracy and showed more potential clinical benefit for the estimation of postoperative complications.

The LAS VEGAS risk score for prediction of postoperative pulmonary complications: An observational study

BACKGROUND

Currently used pre-operative prediction scores for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) use patient data and expected surgery characteristics exclusively. However, intra-operative events are also associated with the development of PPCs.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a new prediction score for PPCs that uses both pre-operative and intra-operative data.

DESIGN

This is a secondary analysis of the LAS VEGAS study, a large international, multicentre, prospective study.

SETTINGS

A total of 146 hospitals across 29 countries.

PATIENTS

Adult patients requiring intra-operative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery.

INTERVENTIONS

The cohort was randomly divided into a development subsample to construct a predictive model, and a subsample for validation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prediction performance of developed models for PPCs.

RESULTS

Of the 6063 patients analysed, 10.9% developed at least one PPC. Regression modelling identified 13 independent risk factors for PPCs: six patient characteristics [higher age, higher American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) physical score, pre-operative anaemia, pre-operative lower SpO2 and a history of active cancer or obstructive sleep apnoea], two procedure-related features (urgent or emergency surgery and surgery lasting ≥ 1 h), and five intra-operative events [use of an airway other than a supraglottic device, the use of intravenous anaesthetic agents along with volatile agents (balanced anaesthesia), intra-operative desaturation, higher levels of positive end-expiratory pressures > 3 cmH2O and use of vasopressors]. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the LAS VEGAS risk score for prediction of PPCs was 0.78 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.76 to 0.80] for the development subsample and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.76) for the validation subsample.

CONCLUSION

The LAS VEGAS risk score including 13 peri-operative characteristics has a moderate discriminative ability for prediction of PPCs. External validation is needed before use in clinical practice.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered at Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT01601223.

A Nomogram to Predict Anastomotic Leakage in Open Rectal Surgery-Hope or Hype?

BACKGROUND

Anastomotic leakage is the most dreaded complication after rectal resection and total mesorectal excision, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Formation of a diverting ileostomy is generally performed to protect anastomotic healing. Identification of variables predicting anastomotic leakage might help to select patients who are under increased risk for the development of anastomotic leakage prior to surgery. The objective of this study was to assess the applicability of a nomogram as prognostic model for the occurrence of anastomotic leakage after rectal resection in a cohort of rectal cancer patients.

METHODS

Nine hundred seventy-two consecutive patients who underwent surgery for rectal cancer were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to determine independent risk factors associated with anastomotic leakage. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was performed to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, and overall model correctness of a recently published nomogram and an adopted risk score based on the variables identified in this study as a predictive model.

RESULTS

Male sex (p = 0.042), obesity (p = 0.017), smoking (p = 0.012), postoperative bleeding (p = 0.024), and total protein level ≤ 5.6 g/dl (p = 0.007) were identified as independent risk factors for anastomotic leakage. The investigated nomogram and the adopted risk score failed to reach relevant areas under the ROC curve greater than 0.700 for the prediction of anastomotic leakage.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram and the adopted risk score failed to reliably predict the occurrence of anastomotic leakage after rectal resection. Risk scores as prognostic models for the prediction of anastomotic leakage, independently of the study population, still need to be identified.

Inflammatory cell indexes as preoperative predictors of hospital stay in open elective thoracic surgery

BACKGROUND

Shorter and safer hospital stay (HS) is a desired outcome for patients undergoing thoracic surgery. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive capacity of a series of pre-defined inflammatory cell indexes based on preoperative complete blood counts, towards length of HS in open elective thoracic surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively studied 157 consecutive patients undergoing open elective thoracic surgery. Preoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte, platelet to lymphocyte and lymphocyte to monocyte ratios were calculated, and the red cell distribution width and mean platelet volume were registered. In addition, the systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) and a further derivative index, the aggregate inflammation systemic index (AISI) were calculated.

RESULTS

Statistically significant and positive correlations were observed between HS and SIRI, and between HS and AISI. In multiple logistic regression analysis, after dividing the patients in groups with normal and prolonged HS and adjusting for several confounders, only AISI was independently associated with HS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that simple, inexpensive and widely available inflammatory cell indexes like SIRI and, particularly AISI, can be useful for the early identification of patients at risk of prolonged HS in open elective thoracic surgery.