Trends in health expectancy indicators in the older adult population in Belgium between 1997 and 2004

Development in life expectancy with good and poor cognitive function in the elderly European Population from 2004-05 to 2015

BACKGROUND

Living not just longer, but also cognitively healthier, and more independent lives is essential if European countries are to cope with the financial challenges that the shifting age composition of Europe's population presents. Here we investigate the change in life expectancy (LE) spent with good and poor cognitive function among older adults across Europe.

METHODS

LE with good/poor cognitive function was estimated by the Sullivan Method. Cross-sectional data on cognitive functioning was obtained from 23,213 (wave 1, 2004-05) and 40,874 (wave 6, 2015) 50+-year-olds of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Information on mortality was obtained from the Eurostat Database. Results for 70+-year-olds were emphasized.

RESULTS

LE with good cognitive function increased with 1.6 years from 10.7 years (95% CI: 10.6-10.9) in 2004-05 to 12.4 years (95% CI: 12.3-12.5) in 2015 for 70+-year-olds. Disparity was observed across sex and region. In 2004-05, a 70+-year-old woman could expect to spend 30.9% (95% CI: 29.4-32.4) of her remaining LE with poor cognitive function compared to 27.7% (95% CI: 26.0 -29.4) for men. In 2015, women (24.4% (95% CI: 23.4-25.3)) had considerably caught up with men (24.8% (95% CI:23.7.25.8)), shifting the pattern in favor of women. In 2004-05 and 2015, Northern Europeans had the lowest LE with poor cognitive function while Southern Europeans had the highest, but made the most improvement during the period.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall we find that LE with poor cognitive function has been compressed in the European population of 70+-year-olds.

Healthy life expectancy by frailty state in Europe from 2004 to 2015: findings from SHARE

BACKGROUND

As populations age, the possible consequences of increased frailty are a major concern for the health sector. Here, we investigate how life expectancy with and without frailty has changed during a 10-11-year-period across Europe.

METHODS

The Sullivan method was used to investigate changes in life expectancy with and without frailty in 10 European countries. Frailty status (non-frail, pre-frail and frail) was determined by use of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Frailty Instrument (SHARE-FI). Data on frailty prevalence was obtained from 21 698 individuals in wave 1 (2004-05) and 38 859 individuals in wave 6 (2015) of the SHARE. Information on mortality was obtained from the Eurostat Database.

RESULTS

In 2015, women aged 70 spent 25.0% (95% CI: 24.0-26.1) of their remaining life expectancy in a frail state, and the number for men was 11.5% (95% CI: 10.7-12.3). Southern Europeans spent 24.2% (95% CI: 22.9-25.4) of their remaining life expectancy in a frail state and the numbers for Central Europeans and Northern Europeans were 17.0% (95% CI: 16.0-17.9) and 12.2% (95% CI: 10.9-13.5), respectively. From 2004-05 to 2015, life expectancy increased by 1.1 years (from 15.3 to 16.4 years) for 70-year-old Europeans. Similarly, non-frail life expectancy increased by 1.1 years (95% CI: 0.8-1.4), whereas no significant changes in life expectancy in frail states were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that Europeans today spend more years in a non-frail state than Europeans did 10-11 years ago. Our findings reflect a considerable inequality by gender and region.

Post-war (1946-2017) population health change in the United Kingdom: A systematic review

We systematically reviewed the evidence on secular trends in main chronic conditions, disability and self-assessed general health among adults in the United Kingdom, as reported in primary/secondary care databases and population-based surveys. Searches were conducted separately for: (1) trends in age-standardised or age-specific prevalence of major non-communicable diseases, disability, and self-reported general health; (2) trends in health expectancy. The databases searched were MEDLINE, EMBASE/EMBASE Classic and Web of Science (all from 1946/7). The evidence was synthesised narratively. There were 39 studies reporting trends in prevalence of health conditions and 15 studies in health expectancy. We did not find evidence for improvement in the age-standardised or age-specific prevalence of any of the studied major chronic conditions over the last few decades, apart from Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Both increasing or stable prevalence rates with simultaneous rising life expectancy support the expansion of morbidity theory, meaning that people are expected to spend a greater number of years with chronic condition(s). The evidence on disability-expressed as prevalence or health expectancy-was mixed, but also appeared to support the expansion of morbidity among those aged 65 or over. The evidence on trends in disability for younger age is lacking. Across the studied period (1946-2017), the UK population endured more years with chronic morbidity and disability, which may place a serious strain on the health care system, the economy and the society.

Disability-Free Life Expectancy Over 30 Years: A Growing Female Disadvantage in the US Population

OBJECTIVES

To examine changes in active life expectancy in the United States over 30 years for older men and women (aged ≥ 65 years).

METHODS

We used the 1982 and 2004 National Long Term Care Survey and the 2011 National Health and Aging Trends Study to estimate age-specific mortality and disability rates, the overall chances of survival and of surviving without disability, and years of active life for men and women.

RESULTS

For older men, longevity has increased, disability has been postponed to older ages, disability prevalence has fallen, and the percentage of remaining life spent active has increased. However, for older women, small longevity increases have been accompanied by even smaller postponements in disability, a reversal of a downward trend in moderate disability, and stagnation of active life as a percentage of life expectancy. As a consequence, older women no longer live more active years than men, despite their longer lives.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither a compression nor expansion of late-life disability is inevitable. Public health measures directed at older women to postpone disability may be needed to offset impending long-term care pressures related to population aging.

A comparison of health expectancies over two decades in England: results of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study I and II

BACKGROUND

Whether rises in life expectancy are increases in good-quality years is of profound importance worldwide, with population ageing. We investigate how various health expectancies have changed in England between 1991 and 2011, with identical study design and methods in each decade.

METHODS

Baseline data from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies in populations aged 65 years or older in three geographically defined centres in England (Cambridgeshire, Newcastle, and Nottingham) provided prevalence estimates for three health measures: self-perceived health (defined as excellent-good, fair, or poor); cognitive impairment (defined as moderate-severe, mild, or none, as assessed by Mini-Mental State Examination score); and disability in activities of daily living (defined as none, mild, or moderate-severe). Health expectancies for the three regions combined were calculated by the Sullivan method, which applies the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of the health measure to a standard life table for the same period.

FINDINGS

Between 1991 and 2011, gains in life expectancy at age 65 years (4·5 years for men and 3·6 years for women) were accompanied by equivalent gains in years free of any cognitive impairment (4·2 years [95% CI 4·2-4·3] for men and 4·4 years [4·3-4·5] for women) and decreased years with mild or moderate-severe cognitive impairment. Gains were also identified in years in excellent or good self-perceived health (3·8 years [95% CI 3·5-4·1] for men and 3·1 years [2·7-3·4] for women). Gains in disability-free years were much smaller than those in excellent-good self-perceived health or those free from cognitive impairment, especially for women (0·5 years [0·2-0·9] compared with 2·6 years [2·3-2·9] for men), mostly because of increased mild disability.

INTERPRETATION

During the past two decades in England, we report an absolute compression (ie, reduction) of cognitive impairment, a relative compression of self-perceived health (ie, proportion of life spent healthy is increasing), and dynamic equilibrium of disability (ie, less severe disability is increasing but more severe disability is not). Reasons for these patterns are unknown but might include increasing obesity during previous decades. Our findings have wide-ranging implications for health services and for extension of working life.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council.

Health, functioning, and disability in older adults--present status and future implications

Ageing is a dynamic process, and trends in the health status of older adults aged at least 60 years vary over time because of several factors. We examined reported trends in morbidity and mortality in older adults during the past two decades to identify patterns of ageing across the world. We showed some evidence for compression of morbidity (ie, a reduced amount of time spent in worse health), in four types of studies: 1) of good quality based on assessment criteria scores; 2) those in which a disability-related or impairment-related measure of morbidity was used; 3) longitudinal studies; or 4) studies undertaken in the USA and other high-income countries. Many studies, however, reported contrasting evidence (ie, for an expansion of morbidity), but with different methods, these measures are not directly comparable. Expansion of morbidity was more common when trends in chronic disease prevalence were studied. Our secondary analysis of data from longitudinal ageing surveys presents similar results. However, patterns of limitations in functioning vary substantially between countries and within countries over time, with no discernible explanation. Data from low-income countries are very sparse, and efforts to obtain information about the health of older adults in less-developed regions of the world are urgently needed. We especially need studies that focus on refining measurements of health, functioning, and disability in older people, with a core set of domains of functioning, that investigate the effects of these evolving patterns on the health-care system and their economic implications.

Healthy life expectancy changes in Thailand, 2002-2007

We investigate links between increasing longevity and health status in Thailand. Using data from 2002 and 2007 national surveys of the elderly, healthy life expectancies at older ages were estimated. Change depended on health indicator, gender and age. Self-reported health and self-care disability showed expansion of morbidity. Mobility disability change indicated compression but a wording change means this may be an artefact. We compare these findings with the 1990 and 2010 results of the Global Burden of Disease study. Using HLE based on disease prevalence, the GBD found that Thailand experienced small longevity gains and morbidity compression. Our findings suggest these results should be treated with caution, as, since 2000, Thailand has introduced universal health care.

Gender differences in healthy life years within the EU: an exploration of the "health-survival" paradox

Objectives

To evaluated the female–male health–survival paradox by estimating the contribution of women’s mortality advantage versus women’s disability disadvantage.

Methods

Disability prevalence was measured from the 2006 Survey on Income and Living Conditions in 25 European countries. Disability prevalence was applied to life tables to estimate healthy life years (HLY) at age 15. Gender differences in HLY were split into two parts: that due to gender inequality in mortality and that due to gender inequality in disability. The relationship between women’s mortality advantage or disability disadvantage and the level of population health between countries was analysed using random-effects meta-regression.

Results

Women’s mortality advantage contributes to more HLY in women; women’s higher prevalence of disability reduces the difference in HLY. In populations with high life expectancy women’s advantage in HLY was small or even a men’s advantage was found. In populations with lower life expectancy, the hardship among men is already evident at young ages.

Conclusions

The results suggest that the health–survival paradox is a function of the level of population health, dependent on modifiable factors.

Trends and variation in mild disability and functional limitations among older adults in Norway, 1986-2008

An increase in the number of older adults may raise the demand for health and care services, whereas decreasing prevalence of disability and functional limitations among them might counteract this demographic effect. However, the trends in health are inconsistent between studies and countries. In this article, we estimated the trends in mild disability and functional limitations among older Norwegians and analyzed whether they differ between socio-demographic groups. Data were obtained from repeated cross-sectional surveys conducted in 1987, 1991, 1995, 2002, 2005, and 2008, in total 4,036 non-institutionalized persons aged 67 years or older. We analyzed trends using multivariate logistic regression. On average, the age-adjusted trend in functional limitations was −3.3% per year, and in disability 3.4% per year. The risk for functional limitations or disability was elevated for women compared to men, for married compared to non-married, and was inversely associated with educational level The trends were significantly weaker with increasing age for disabilities, whereas none of the trends differed significantly between subgroups of sexes, educational level or marital status. Both functional limitations free and disability-free life expectancy appeared to have increased more than total life expectancy at age 67 during this period. The analysis suggests downward trends in the prevalence of mild disability and functional limitations among older Norwegians between 1987 and 2008 and a compression of lifetime in such health states. The reduced numbers of older people with disability and functional limitations may have restrained the demand for health and care services caused by the increase in the number of older adults.

Trends in healthy life expectancy in Hong Kong SAR 1996-2008

Although Hong Kong has one of the best life expectancy (LE) records in the world, second only to Japan for women, we know very little about the changes in the health status of the older adult population. Our article aims to provide a better understanding of trends in both chronic morbidity and disability for older men and women. The authors compute chronic morbidity-free and disability-free life expectancy and the proportion of both in relation to total LE using the Sullivan method to examine whether Hong Kong older adults are experiencing a compression of morbidity and disability and whether there is any gender difference in relation to mortality and morbidity. The results of this study show that Hong Kong women tend to outlive Hong Kong men but are also more likely to suffer from a ‘double disadvantage’, namely more years of life with more chronic morbidity and disability. There has also been a significant expansion of chronic morbidity, as chronic morbidity-free life expectancy (CMFLE) decreased substantially for both genders from 1996 to 2008. Although disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) increased during this period, it increased at a slower pace compared to LE. The proportion of life without chronic morbidity also declined remarkably during these 12 years. Among the advanced ages, the proportion of remaining life in good health without disability has decreased since 1996, indicating a relative expansion of disability.

Ageing populations: the challenges ahead

If the pace of increase in life expectancy in developed countries over the past two centuries continues through the 21st century, most babies born since 2000 in France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the USA, Canada, Japan, and other countries with long life expectancies will celebrate their 100th birthdays. Although trends differ between countries, populations of nearly all such countries are ageing as a result of low fertility, low immigration, and long lives. A key question is: are increases in life expectancy accompanied by a concurrent postponement of functional limitations and disability? The answer is still open, but research suggests that ageing processes are modifiable and that people are living longer without severe disability. This finding, together with technological and medical development and redistribution of work, will be important for our chances to meet the challenges of ageing populations.

The relationship between longevity and healthy life expectancy

What is the relationship between longevity and health? Health expectancies were developed more than 30 years ago specifically to answer this question. It may therefore be the time to try to answer this question, though it is worth noting that the question implies a unidirectional relationship. Almost no one questions the positive association between health and longevity. It is expected that healthy, robust people will live, on average, longer than frail people. This heterogeneity in terms of robustness/frailty may explain the shape of the mortality trajectory with age, ie. the oldest old seem to follow a lower mortality schedule (Vaupel et al, 1979). On the other hand, many people wonder about the relationship between longevity and health. Are we living longer because we are in better health? Are we living longer in good health? Or are we merely surviving longer whatever our health status? In other words, can we live in good health as long as we can survive? And this is exactly the purpose of health expectancies: monitoring how long people live in various health statuses (Sanders, 1964; Sullivan, 1971; Robine et al, 2003a).