Beyond Social Desirability Bias: Investigating Inconsistencies in Self-Reported HIV Testing and Treatment Behaviors Among HIV-Positive Adults in North West Province, South Africa

Development and calibration of a mathematical model of HIV outcomes among Rwandan adults: Informing achievement of global targets across sub-populations in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

We developed and calibrated the Central Africa-International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (CA-IeDEA) HIV policy model to inform achievement of global goals, overall and across all sub-populations, in Rwanda.

METHODS

We created a deterministic dynamic model to project adult HIV epidemic and care continuum outcomes, overall and for 35 subpopulations (age group, sex, HIV acquisition risk, urbanicity). Data came from the Rwanda cohort of CA-IeDEA, 2004-2020; Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys, 2005, 2010, 2015; Rwanda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment, 2019; and literature and reports. We calibrated the model to 47 targets by selecting 50 best-fitting parameter sets. Targets reflected epidemic, global goals and other indicators. Best-fitting sets minimized the summed absolute value of the percentage deviation (AVPD) between projections and targets. Good performance was mean AVPD ≤5% across best-fitting sets and/or projections within target confidence intervals; acceptable was mean AVPD >5%-15%.

RESULTS

Across indicators, 1,843 of 2,350 (78.4%) model projections were a good or acceptable fit to calibration targets. For HIV epidemic indicators, 247 of 300 (82.3%) projections were a good fit to targets, with the model performing better for women (80.3% a good fit) than for men (62.3% a good fit). For global goals indicators, 97 of 100 (97.0%) projections were a good fit; model performance was similar for women and men. For other indicators, 708 of 950 (74.5%) projections were a good or acceptable fit. Fit was better for women than for men (percentage virally suppressed only) and when restricting targets for number on ART to 2013 and beyond.

CONCLUSIONS

The CA-IeDEA HIV policy model fits historical data and can inform policy solutions for achieving global goals across all sub-populations in Rwanda. High-quality population-based data and novel approaches that account for calibration target quality are critical to ongoing use of mathematical models for programmatic planning.

Non-disclosure of Known HIV Status among People Living with HIV in the Mozambique Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (INSIDA 2021)

Non-disclosure of known HIV-positive status is a barrier to ending HIV as a global health threat as it leads to biased measurements of HIV-treatment coverage indicators and inaccurate estimates of epidemic progress, resulting in wasted resources. Identifying and understanding factors driving non-disclosure among people living with HIV is necessary for encouraging engagement with HIV services and improving treatment coverage, resource allocation, and monitoring of HIV programs in high HIV-burden areas. This analysis assessed factors associated with non-disclosure among survey respondents who had antiretrovirals (ARVs) detected in blood specimens. HIV-positive blood specimens (n = 2,038) from the 2021 Mozambique Population-based HIV Impact Assessment were tested for the presence of ARVs. Weighted prevalence estimates of non-disclosure and select covariates are reported and factors associated with non-disclosure modeled via multivariate logistic regression. Among 1,358 respondents with ARVs detected, 14.1% did not self-report their HIV-positive status during the interview. Adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical factors, non-disclosure was more likely among younger participants aged 15-24 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.15, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.16-4.01) and among those without knowledge of their recent sexual partner's HIV-status (aOR: 2.67, 95%CI: 1.38-5.15). Participants with an unsuppressed viral load were over six times (aOR: 6.27, 95%CI: 2.76-14.23) more likely to not disclose. Improving disclosure rates is vital to obtaining accurate HIV-treatment estimates and assessing epidemic progress. Initiatives prioritizing pre- and post-test counseling, stressing treatment literacy, emphasizing undetectable = untransmittable (U = U) campaigns, and encouraging programs that promote social support may encourage disclosure among individuals living with HIV.

Development and calibration of a mathematical model of HIV outcomes among Rwandan adults: informing equitable achievement of targets in Rwanda

Background

We developed and calibrated the Central Africa-International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (CA-IeDEA) HIV policy model to inform equitable achievement of global goals, overall and across sub-populations, in Rwanda.

Methods

We created a deterministic dynamic model to project adult HIV epidemic and care continuum outcomes, overall and for 25 subpopulations (age group, sex, HIV acquisition risk, urbanicity). Data came from the Rwanda cohort of CA-IeDEA, 2004-2020; Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys, 2005, 2010, 2015; Rwanda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment, 2019; and the literature and reports. We calibrated the model to 47 targets by selecting the 50 best-fitting parameter sets among 20,000 simulations. Calibration targets reflected epidemic (HIV prevalence, incidence), global goals (percentage on antiretroviral therapy (ART) among diagnosed, percentage virally suppressed among on ART) and other (number on ART, percentage virally suppressed) indicators, overall and by sex. Best-fitting sets minimized the summed absolute value of the percentage deviation (AVPD) between model projections and calibration targets. Good model performance was mean AVPD ≤5% across the 50 best-fitting sets and/or projections within the target confidence intervals; acceptable was mean AVPD >5% and ≤15%.

Results

Across indicators, 1,841 of 2,350 (78.3%) model projections were a good or acceptable fit to calibration targets. For HIV epidemic indicators, 256 of 300 (85.3%) projections were a good fit to targets, with the model performing better for women (83.3% a good fit) than for men (71.7% a good fit). For global goals indicators, 96 of 100 (96.0%) projections were a good fit; model performance was similar for women and men. For other indicators, 653 of 950 (68.7%) projections were a good or acceptable fit. Fit was better for women than for men (percentage virally suppressed only) and when restricting targets for number on ART to 2013 and beyond.

Conclusions

The CA-IeDEA HIV policy model fits historical data and can inform policy solutions for equitably achieving global goals to end the HIV epidemic in Rwanda. High-quality, unbiased population-based data, as well as novel approaches that account for calibration target quality, are critical to ongoing use of mathematical models for programmatic planning.

Correlates of viral suppression among sexual minority men and transgender women living with HIV in Mpumalanga, South Africa

Sexual minority men (SMM) and transgender women in South Africa engage in HIV care at lower rates than other persons living with HIV and may experience population-specific barriers to HIV treatment and viral suppression (VS). As part of a pilot trial of an SMM-tailored peer navigation (PN) intervention in Ehlanzeni district, South Africa, we assessed factors associated with ART use and VS among SMM at trial enrolment. A total of 103 HIV-positive SMM and transgender women enrolled in the pilot trial. Data on clinical visits and ART adherence were self-reported. VS status was verified through laboratory analysis (<1000 copies/ml). We assessed correlates of VS at baseline using Poisson generalized linear model (GLM) with a log link function, including demographic, psychosocial, clinical, and behavioral indicators. Among participants, 52.4% reported ART use and only 42.2% of all participants had evidence of VS. Of the 49.5% who reported optimal engagement in HIV care (consistent clinic visits with pills never missed for ≥ 4 consecutive days) in the past 3-months, 56.0% were virally suppressed. In multivariable analysis, SMM were significantly more likely to be virally suppressed when they were ≥ 25 years of age (Adjusted prevalence ratio [APR] = 2.0, CI 95%:1.0-3.8); in a relationship but not living with partner, as compared to married, living together, or single (APR = 1.7, CI 95%:1.0-2.7), and optimally engaged in care (APR = 2.1, 95% CI:1.3-3.3). Findings indicate a need for targeted treatment and care support programming, especially for SMM and transgender women who are young and married/living with their partners to improve treatment outcomes among this population.

Psychometric assessment of the Runyankole-translated Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale among persons with HIV in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Social desirability can negatively affect the validity of self-reported measures, including underreporting of stigmatized behaviors like alcohol consumption. The Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (SDS) is widely implemented and comprised of Denial and Attribution Domains (i.e., tendencies to deny undesirable traits or attribute socially desirable traits to oneself, respectively). Yet, limited psychometric research has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, where the prevalence of unhealthy alcohol consumption is high as well as religiosity and hierarchical social norms. To address this gap, we (a) conducted an exploratory study assessing certain psychometric properties of the 28-item SDS (Runyankole-translated) among persons with HIV (PWH) in Uganda, and (b) examined the relationship between social desirability and self-reported alcohol use.

METHODS

We pooled baseline data (N = 1153) from three studies of PWH engaged in alcohol use from 2017 to 2021. We assessed the translated scale's construct validity (via confirmatory factor analysis), internal consistency, item performance, differential item functioning by gender, concurrent validity with the DUREL religiosity index domains, and the association between social desirability and self-reported alcohol use.

RESULTS

Participants had a mean age of 40.42 years, 63% were men, and 91% had an undetectable HIV viral load. The 28-item SDS had satisfactory construct validity (Model fit indices: RMSEA = 0.07, CFI = 0.84, TLI = 0.82) and internal consistency (Denial Domain ΩTotal = 0.82, Attribution Domain ΩTotal = 0.69). We excluded Item 14 ("I never hesitate to help someone in trouble") from the Attribution Domain, which mitigated differential measurement error by gender and slightly improved the construct validity (Model fit indices: RMSEA = 0.06, CFI = 0.86, TLI = 0.85) and reliability (Attribution Domain ΩTotal = 0.72) of the 27-item modified SDS. Using the 27-item SDS, we found that social desirability was weakly correlated with religiosity and inversely associated with self-reported alcohol use after adjusting for biomarker-measured alcohol use and other confounders (β = -0.05, 95% confidence interval: -0.09 to -0.01, p-value = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

We detected and mitigated measurement error in the 28-item Runyankole-translated SDS, and found that the modified 27-item scale had satisfactory construct validity and internal consistency in our sample. Future studies should continue to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Runyankole-translated SDS, including retranslating Item 14 and reevaluating its performance.

Societal knowledge, attitude, and practices towards dengue and associated factors in epidemic-hit areas: Geoinformation assisted empirical evidence

Dengue is one of Pakistan's major health concerns. In this study, we aimed to advance our understanding of the levels of knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) in Pakistan's Dengue Fever (DF) hotspots. Initially, at-risk communities were systematically identified via a well-known spatial modeling technique, named, Kernel Density Estimation, which was later targeted for a household-based cross-sectional survey of KAPs. To collect data on sociodemographic and KAPs, random sampling was utilized (n = 385, 5 % margin of error). Later, the association of different demographics (characteristics), knowledge, and attitude factors-potentially related to poor preventive practices was assessed using bivariate (individual) and multivariable (model) logistic regression analyses. Most respondents (>90 %) identified fever as a sign of DF; headache (73.8 %), joint pain (64.4 %), muscular pain (50.9 %), pain behind the eyes (41.8 %), bleeding (34.3 %), and skin rash (36.1 %) were identified relatively less. Regression results showed significant associations of poor knowledge/attitude with poor preventive practices; dengue vector (odds ratio [OR] = 3.733, 95 % confidence interval [CI ] = 2.377-5.861; P < 0.001), DF symptoms (OR = 3.088, 95 % CI = 1.949-4.894; P < 0.001), dengue transmission (OR = 1.933, 95 % CI = 1.265-2.956; P = 0.002), and attitude (OR = 3.813, 95 % CI = 1.548-9.395; P = 0.004). Moreover, education level was stronger in bivariate analysis and the strongest independent factor of poor preventive practices in multivariable analysis (illiterate: adjusted OR = 6.833, 95 % CI = 2.979-15.672; P < 0.001) and primary education (adjusted OR = 4.046, 95 % CI = 1.997-8.199; P < 0.001). This situation highlights knowledge gaps within urban communities, particularly in understanding dengue transmission and signs/symptoms. The level of education in urban communities also plays a substantial role in dengue control, as observed in this study, where poor preventive practices were more prevalent among illiterate and less educated respondents.

'I did not have sex outside of our bubble': changes in sexual practices and risk reduction strategies among sexual minority men in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic

In efforts to prevent the spread of COVID-19, jurisdictions across the globe, including Canada, enacted containment measures that affected intimacy and sexual relations. This article examines how public health measures during COVID-19 impacted the sexual practices of sexual minority men- gay, bisexual, queer and other men who have sex with men-and how they adopted and modified guidelines to prevent the transmission of COVID-19, HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We conducted 93 semi-structured interviews with men (n = 93) in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver, Canada, between November 2020 to February 2021 (n = 42) and June to October 2021 (n = 51). Across jurisdictions, participants reported changes to sexual practices in response to public health measures and shifting pandemic contexts. Many men indicated that they applied their HIV/STI risk mitigation experiences and adapted COVID-19 prevention strategies to continue engaging in casual sexual behaviours and ensure sexual safety. 'Social bubbles' were changed to 'sex bubbles'. Masks were turned into 'safer' sex tools. 'Outdoor gathering' and 'physical distancing' were transformed into 'outdoor sex' and 'voyeuristic masturbation'. These strategies are examined in connection to the notion of 'reflexive mediation' to illustrate how sexual minority men are simultaneously self-responsibilising and resistant, self-monitoring and creative.

Virtual care during the pandemic: Multi-family group sessions for Hong Kong Chinese families of adolescents with intellectual disabilities

The suspension of social services in Hong Kong during the COVID-19 pandemic increased the caregiver strain for families of adolescent children with intellectual disabilities, possibly aggravating their family relationships. This article reports on an online Multi-Family Group (MFG) conducted during the pandemic for Hong Kong Chinese families of adolescents affected by mild-to-moderate intellectual disabilities. A thematic analysis of the experiences of the participating service users revealed three positive effects of the intervention model: improved family relationships, mutual helpful influences occurring among families, and a new understanding of family members with intellectual disabilities. The therapeutic group process used to promote family development is illustrated by a group vignette. The challenges and the practical considerations for conducting an MFG online are discussed.

When Does Differential Outcome Misclassification Matter for Estimating Prevalence?

BACKGROUND

When accounting for misclassification, investigators make assumptions about whether misclassification is "differential" or "nondifferential." Most guidance on differential misclassification considers settings where outcome misclassification varies across levels of exposure, or vice versa. Here, we examine when covariate-differential misclassification must be considered when estimating overall outcome prevalence.

METHODS

We generated datasets with outcome misclassification under five data generating mechanisms. In each, we estimated prevalence using estimators that (a) ignored misclassification, (b) assumed misclassification was nondifferential, and (c) allowed misclassification to vary across levels of a covariate. We compared bias and precision in estimated prevalence in the study sample and an external target population using different sources of validation data to account for misclassification. We illustrated use of each approach to estimate HIV prevalence using self-reported HIV status among people in East Africa cross-border areas.

RESULTS

The estimator that allowed misclassification to vary across levels of the covariate produced results with little bias for both populations in all scenarios but had higher variability when the validation study contained sparse strata. Estimators that assumed nondifferential misclassification produced results with little bias when the covariate distribution in the validation data matched the covariate distribution in the target population; otherwise estimates assuming nondifferential misclassification were biased.

CONCLUSIONS

If validation data are a simple random sample from the target population, assuming nondifferential outcome misclassification will yield prevalence estimates with little bias regardless of whether misclassification varies across covariates. Otherwise, obtaining valid prevalence estimates requires incorporating covariates into the estimators used to account for misclassification.

Individual and household factors associated with non-disclosure of positive HIV status in a population-based HIV serosurvey

OBJECTIVES

Non-disclosure of positive HIV status in population-based surveys causes underestimation of national HIV diagnosis and biases inferences about engagement in the care continuum. This study investigated individual and household factors associated with HIV non-disclosure to survey interviewers in Nigeria.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a cross sectional population-based household HIV survey.

METHODS

We analyzed data from adults aged 15-64 years who tested positive for HIV and had antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) in their blood from a nationally representative HIV sero-survey conducted in Nigeria in 2018. We considered ARV use as a proxy for knowledge of HIV diagnosis; thus, respondents who self-reported to be unaware of their HIV status were classified as non-disclosers. We estimated the associations between non-disclosure and various sociodemographic, clinical, and household characteristics using weighted logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 1266 respondents living with HIV who were taking ARVs, 503 (40%) did not disclose their HIV status to interviewers. In multivariable statistical analyses, the adjusted odds of non-disclosure were highest among respondents aged 15-24 years, those with less than a primary school education, and those who were the only person living with HIV in their household.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-disclosure of positive HIV status to survey personnel is common among adults who are receiving treatment in Nigeria. These findings highlight the importance of validating self-reported HIV status in surveys using biomarkers of ARV use. Meanwhile, it is crucial to improve disclosure by strengthening interview procedures and tailoring strategies towards groups that are disproportionately likely to underreport HIV diagnoses.

Syndemics of intimate partner violence among women in HIV endemic South Africa: geospatial analysis of nationally representative data

Despite some improvement in lowering HIV incidence, HIV-related challenges, such as intimate partner violence (IPV), remain unacceptably high among women in South Africa. For decades, researchers and activists have pointed to the complex and intertwined reality of the substance abuse, violence and AIDS (SAVA) syndemic that endangers women. However, more recent systematic review/meta-analysis evidence points to inconclusive association between IPV and alcohol use. Furthermore, much of the evidence is often non-population-based that focuses on the co-occurrence rather than synergistic SAVA interaction. In this study, using the latest data from the South Africa Demographic and Health Survey (SA-DHS), we identified geographic synergistic clustering of IPV associated with HIV and substance abuse in South Africa as a measure of population-level interactions among these factors. The SA-DHS is a nationally representative sample that includes wide-ranging data on health, social challenges and household geo-locations of 5,874 women who participated in the domestic violence module. First, geographical IPV, harmful alcohol use (as the substance abuse measure available in SA-DHS) and HIV clusters were identified using the Kulldorff spatial scan statistic in SaTScan. Second, synergistic interactions related to recent IPV (i.e. recent physical, sexual, emotional violence during the last 12 months) with harmful alcohol use and HIV challenge were measured using RERI [Relative excess risk due to interaction], AP [attributable proportion] and S [Synergy index]. In our results, we spatially identified geographical physical IPV syndemic interactions in parts of the Eastern Cape/Free State Provinces (RERI = 4.42 [95% CI: 2.34-6.51], AP = 0.56 [95% CI: 0.44-0.68], S = 2.77 [95% CI: 2.01-3.84], but not in other forms of IPV. Although IPV, based on decade old concept of SAVA syndemic, was less common/widespread than expected from the national scale population-based data, we identified population-level physical violence syndemic occurring in South Africa. Our study highlights the need to prioritize public health response targeting vulnerable populations residing in these high-risk areas of syndemic mechanisms linking these synergistic epidemics that women face in South Africa.

Brief Report: Adolescent Girls Who Sell Sex in Zimbabwe: HIV Risk, Behaviours, and Service Engagement

BACKGROUND

To reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls who sell sex (AGSS) in Zimbabwe, we need to better understand how vulnerabilities intersect with HIV infection and how those living with HIV engage in care.

METHODS

In 2017, we conducted social mapping in 4 locations in Zimbabwe and recruited girls aged 16-19 years who sell sex, using respondent-driven sampling or census sampling methods. Participants completed a questionnaire and provided finger prick blood samples for HIV antibody testing.

RESULTS

Of 605 AGSS recruited, 74.4% considered themselves sex workers, 24.4% reported experiencing violence in the past year, 91.7% were not in school, and 83.8% had less than a complete secondary education. Prevalence of HIV increased steeply from 2.1% among those aged 16 years to 26.9% among those aged 19 years; overall, 20.2% of AGSS were HIV-positive. In the multivariate analysis, age, education, marital status, and violence from a client were associated with HIV. Among the 605 AGSS, 86.3% had ever tested for HIV, with 64.1% having tested in the past 6 months. Among AGSS living with HIV, half (50.8%) were aware of their status, among whom 83.9% reported taking antiretroviral therapy.

CONCLUSION

The steep rise in HIV prevalence among those aged between 16 and 19 years suggests the window to engage with AGSS before HIV acquisition is short. To accelerate reductions in incidence among AGSS, intensified combination prevention strategies that address structural factors and tailor services to the needs of AGSS are required, particularly ensuring girls enroll and remain in school.

Who's slipping through the cracks? A comprehensive individual, clinical and health system characterization of people with virological failure on first-line HIV treatment in Uganda and South Africa

OBJECTIVES

HIV virological failure remains a major threat to programme success in sub-Saharan Africa. While HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) and inadequate adherence are the main drivers of virological failure, the individual, clinical and health system characteristics that lead to poor outcomes are not well understood. The objective of this paper is to identify those characteristics among people failing first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

We enrolled a cohort of adults in HIV care experiencing virological failure on first-line ART at five sites and used standard statistical methods to characterize them with a focus on three domains: individual/demographic, clinical, and health system, and compared each by country of enrolment.

RESULTS

Of 840 participants, 51% were women, the median duration on ART was 3.2 years [interquartile range (IQR) 1.1, 6.4 years] and the median CD4 cell count prior to failure was 281 cells/µL (IQR 121, 457 cells/µL). More than half of participants [53%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 49-56%] stated that they had > 90% adherence and 75% (95% CI 72-77%) took their ART on time all or most of the time. Conversely, the vast majority (90%; 95% CI 86-92%) with a completed genotypic drug resistance test had any HIV drug resistance. This population had high health system use, reporting a median of 3 (IQR 2.6) health care visits and a median of 1 (IQR 1.1) hospitalization in the preceding 6 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients failing first-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa generally report high rates of adherence to ART, have extremely high rates of HIV drug resistance and utilize significant health care resources. Health systems interventions to promptly detect and manage treatment failure will be a prerequisite to establishing control of the HIV epidemic.

Under-Reporting of Known HIV-Positive Status Among People Living with HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Monitoring progress towards the UNAIDS 'first 90' target requires accurate estimates of levels of diagnosis among people living with HIV (PLHIV), which is often estimated using self-report. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis quantifying under-reporting of known HIV-positive status using objective knowledge proxies. Databases were searched for studies providing self-reported and biological/clinical markers of prior knowledge of HIV-positive status among PLHIV. Random-effects models were used to derive pooled estimates of levels of under-reporting. Thirty-two estimates from 26 studies were included (41,465 PLHIV). The pooled proportion under-reporting known HIV-positive status was 20% (95% confidence interval 13-26%, I2 = 99%). In sub-group analysis, under-reporting was higher among men who have sex with men (32%, number of estimates [Ne] = 10) compared to the general population (9%, Ne = 10) and among Black (18%, Ne = 5) than non-Black (3%, Ne = 3) individuals. Supplementing self-reported data with biological/clinical proxies may improve the validity of the 'first 90' estimates.

Disparities in HIV/STI burden and care coverage among men and transgender persons who have sex with men in Nairobi, Kenya: a cross-sectional study

Objectives

The study aimed to estimate the prevalence of, and associations, with HIV and metrics of HIV care engagement in a representative population of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) and transgender persons (TP) who have sex with men (GBMSM/TP)

Setting

Urban districts of Nairobi, Kenya.

Design

Cross-sectional.

Participants

608 eligible participants were identified through respondent-driven sampling over 19 waves of recruitment arising from ten seeds between May and December 2017. Inclusion criteria were: age >18 years; Nairobi residence; male sex assignment at birth or current identification as male, and recent consensual sex with male partners. Exclusion criteria were: missing or invalid recruitment coupon; repeat registration; intoxication at study visit.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

HIV status measured using Determine Alere HIV 1/2 and First Response HIV 1–2.0 and GeneXpert HIV-1 Qual. Self-reported metrics of HIV status awareness, antiretroviral use and objective quantification of viral suppression using GeneXpert HIV-1 VL.

Results

26.4% (286/618) were HIV positive of whom 76.6% were status aware, 65.3% were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 47.4% were virally suppressed (<50 copies/mL). Participants 18–22 years were less likely to be status aware, be receiving ART or to have achieved viral suppression. Mean log viral load was 3.14 log higher in 18–22 years compared with older participants. Bacterial sexually transmitted infections were common at both urethral and rectal sites and most infections were asymptomatic by self-report (rectal 82.2%, urethral 82.3%).

Conclusions

Engagement in the HIV diagnosis and care cascade among GBMSM/TP in Nairobi is markedly better than in most sub-Saharan African countries, yet falls short of achievements for the general population in Kenya and for GBMSM in high income settings. Young GBMSM/TP are least well served by the current configuration of adult key population services, and programmes should identify and address the sexual, social and developmental needs of adolescent and young key populations.

Point-of-Care Test for Assessing Tenofovir Adherence: Feasibility and Recommendations from Women in an Oral PrEP Program in Kenya and Their Healthcare Providers

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective HIV prevention modality when taken as recommended. Women in sub-Saharan Africa may have adherence challenges that remain undisclosed to providers. Real-time measures that identify non-adherence can allow for immediate exploration of adherence challenges, counseling and interventions. We conducted a formative qualitative study in Kenya to explore oral PrEP experiences and reactions to a point-of-care urine test (UT) identifying recent (past 4 days) non-adherence to tenofovir-based PrEP among female PrEP users (25 in-depth interviews; 4 focus groups) and health care provider (10 key informant interviews). Findings indicate that use of the UT would be highly feasible in the context of regular PrEP care, largely acceptable to clients and providers, and could improve adherence. Clients emphasized the need for transparent client-centered strategies in delivering results. This formative study informs the development of tools to implement this point-of-care UT in future interventional studies and clinical settings.

Utilisation of quality antenatal, delivery and postnatal care services in Nepal: An analysis of Service Provision Assessment

BACKGROUND

Nepal has improved access and utilisation of routine maternal and newborn health (MNH) services. Despite improved access to routine MNH services such as antenatal care (ANC), and delivery and postnatal care (PNC) services, the burden of maternal and neonatal deaths in Nepal remains high. Most of those deaths could be prevented by improving utilisation of evidence-informed clinical MNH interventions. However, little is known on determinants of utilisation of such clinical MNH interventions in health facilities (HFs). This study investigated the determinants of utilisation of technical quality MNH services in Nepal.

METHODS

This study used data from the 2015 Nepal Services Provision Assessment. A total of 523 pregnant and 309 postpartum women were included for the analysis of utilisation of technical quality of ANC, and delivery and PNC services, respectively. Outcome variables were utilisation of better quality i) ANC services, and ii) delivery and PNC services while independent variables included features of HFs and health workers, and demographic characteristics of pregnant and postpartum women. Binomial logistic regression was conducted to identify the determinants associated with utilisation of quality MNH services. The odds ratio with 95% confidence interval (CIs) were reported at the significance level of p < 0.05 (two-tailed).

RESULTS

Women utilised quality ANC services if they attended facilities with better HF capacity (aOR = 2.12;95% CI: 1.03, 4.35). Women utilised better quality delivery and PNC services from private HFs compared to public HFs (aOR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.14, 6.08). Women utilised better technical quality ANC provided by nursing staff compared to physicians (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) =2.89; 95% CI: 1.33, 6.29), and from staff supervised by a higher authority compared to those not supervised (aOR = 1.71; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.92). However, compared to province one, women utilised poor quality delivery and PNC services from HFs in province two (aOR = 0.15; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Women utilised quality MNH services at facilities with better HF capacity, service provided by nursing staff, and attended at supervised HFs/health workers. Provincial and municipal governments require strengthening HF capacities (e.g., supply equipment, medicines, supplies), recruiting trained nurse-midwives, and supervising health workers.

HIV Prevention and Treatment Cascades Among Female Sex Workers in Benin, West Africa

BACKGROUND

Benin has a long-standing history of HIV prevention programs aimed at female sex workers (FSWs). We used data from a national survey among FSWs (2017) to assess the prevention and care cascades in this population.

METHODS

Female sex workers were recruited through cluster sampling of sex work sites. A questionnaire was administered, and HIV tested. HIV-positive participants were asked to provide dried blood spots and were tested for antiretroviral and viral load. We assessed 2 prevention cascades (HIV testing and safer sex) and the treatment cascade, using a combination of self-reported and biological variables.

RESULTS

Mean age of the 1086 FSWs was 30 years. Half of them were Beninese, and two-thirds had a primary school education level or less. Almost all FSWs had ever heard of HIV/AIDS. More than half (79.1%) had ever been tested, and 84.1% of the latter had been tested in the last year. In the previous 6 months, 90.1% were exposed to prevention messages. Women exposed to any HIV prevention message reported a higher level of consistent condom use in the last month (69.0%) than those who were not (48.5%, P < 0.0001). HIV prevalence was 7.7%. Among HIV-positive women, 60.6% knew their status; among those, 90.5% were on antiretroviral and 81.8% of them had a suppressed viral load.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite long-standing HIV prevention programs for FSWs, the prevention indicators were often low. Linkage to care was good, viral suppression was suboptimal, but knowledge of HIV-positive status was low. Exposing women to prevention messages is necessary, as to increase HIV testing.

Using machine learning and big data to explore the drug resistance landscape in HIV

Drug resistance mutations (DRMs) appear in HIV under treatment pressure. DRMs are commonly transmitted to naive patients. The standard approach to reveal new DRMs is to test for significant frequency differences of mutations between treated and naive patients. However, we then consider each mutation individually and cannot hope to study interactions between several mutations. Here, we aim to leverage the ever-growing quantity of high-quality sequence data and machine learning methods to study such interactions (i.e. epistasis), as well as try to find new DRMs.

We trained classifiers to discriminate between Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor (RTI)-experienced and RTI-naive samples on a large HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) sequence dataset from the UK (n ≈ 55, 000), using all observed mutations as binary representation features. To assess the robustness of our findings, our classifiers were evaluated on independent data sets, both from the UK and Africa. Important representation features for each classifier were then extracted as potential DRMs. To find novel DRMs, we repeated this process by removing either features or samples associated to known DRMs.

When keeping all known resistance signal, we detected sufficiently prevalent known DRMs, thus validating the approach. When removing features corresponding to known DRMs, our classifiers retained some prediction accuracy, and six new mutations significantly associated with resistance were identified. These six mutations have a low genetic barrier, are correlated to known DRMs, and are spatially close to either the RT active site or the regulatory binding pocket. When removing both known DRM features and sequences containing at least one known DRM, our classifiers lose all prediction accuracy. These results likely indicate that all mutations directly conferring resistance have been found, and that our newly discovered DRMs are accessory or compensatory mutations. Moreover, apart from the accessory nature of the relationships we found, we did not find any significant signal of further, more subtle epistasis combining several mutations which individually do not seem to confer any resistance.

Almost all drugs to treat HIV target the Reverse Transcriptase (RT) and Drug resistance mutations (DRMs) appear in HIV under treatment pressure. Resistant strains can be transmitted and limit treatment options at the population level. Classically, multiple statistical testing is used to find DRMs, by comparing virus sequences of treated and naive populations. However, with this method, each mutation is considered individually and we cannot hope to reveal any interaction (epistasis) between them. Here, we used machine learning to discover new DRMs and study potential epistasis effects. We applied this approach to a very large UK dataset comprising ≈ 55, 000 RT sequences. Results robustness was checked on different UK and African datasets.

Six new mutations associated to resistance were found. All six have a low genetic barrier and show high correlations with known DRMs. Moreover, all these mutations are close to either the active site or the regulatory binding pocket of RT. Thus, they are good candidates for further wet experiments to establish their role in drug resistance. Importantly, our results indicate that epistasis seems to be limited to the classical scheme where primary DRMs confer resistance and associated mutations modulate the strength of the resistance and/or compensate for the fitness cost induced by DRMs.

Perceptions and experiences of a manual therapy trial: a qualitative study of people with moderate to severe COPD

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) presents with physical, emotional and social difficulties that affect quality of life. Multimodal management includes both pharmacological and non-pharmacological strategies, and pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) plays an important role. Recent research has suggested that manual therapies may improve perceptions of dyspnea for people with COPD.

Methods

Focus group interviews were conducted as part of a mixed methods study to assess the feasibility of implementing a manual therapy technique—muscle energy technique (MET)—as an adjunct to PR for people with moderate to severe COPD. Focus group interviews were conducted to examine trial participants views of the intervention and the trial design. A thematic analysis was undertaken to explore the data.

Results

Twelve participants with moderate to severe COPD participated in three focus groups. Participants were motivated to participate in the trial to be proactive about their health. They perceived MET to be a gentle, comfortable form of stretching that allowed them to ‘breathe easier’ and prepared them for PR. A small number of participants reported mild muscular discomfort during MET, but this was short-lasting and was not bothersome. Participants enjoyed the one-on-one contact with researchers and learned more about their breathing while performing spirometric testing. Most participants wanted longer and more frequent MET sessions, and some requested ‘homework’ stretching exercises.

Conclusions

The findings of this study show that a manual therapy intervention was received well by participants in a clinical trial setting. A small number of participants reported mild musculoskeletal discomfort in relation to the MET treatment. Participant preferences for additional and longer treatment sessions should be carefully considered against available resources in future clinical trials.

Trial registration

ANZCTR, ACTRN12618000801213. Registered 11 May 2018 - Retrospectively registered. http://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=374643&isReview=true

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12998-021-00387-0.

Trends and predictors of HIV positivity and time since last test at voluntary counselling and testing encounters among adults in Kilifi, Kenya, 2006-2017

Background: Little is known about HIV retesting uptake among key populations (KP) and general populations (GP) in Kenya. We assessed trends and predictors of first-time testing (FTT), late retesting (previous test more than one year ago for GP or three months for KP), and test positivity at three voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) centres in coastal Kenya. Methods: Routine VCT data covering 2006-2017 was collected from three VCT centres in Kilifi County. We analysed HIV testing history and test results from encounters among adults 18-39 years, categorized as GP men, GP women, men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSW).     Results: Based on 24,728 test encounters (32% FTT), we observed declines in HIV positivity (proportion of encounters where the result was positive) among GP men, GP women, first-time testers and MSM but not among FSW. The proportion of encounters for FTT and late retesting decreased for both GP and KP but remained much higher in KP than GP. HIV positivity was higher at FTT and late retesting encounters; at FSW and MSM encounters; and at encounters with clients reporting lower educational attainment and sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms. HIV positivity was lower in GP men, never married clients and those less than 35 years of age. FTT was associated with town, risk group, age 18-24 years, never-married status, low educational attainment, and STI symptoms. Late retesting was less common among encounters with GP individuals who were never married, had Muslim or no religious affiliation, had lower educational attainment, or reported STI symptoms. Conclusions: HIV positive test results were most common at encounters with first-time testers and late re-testers. While the proportion of encounters at which late retesting was reported decreased steadily over the period reviewed, efforts are needed to increase retesting among the most at-risk populations.

Outcomes of retained and disengaged pregnant women living with HIV in Uganda

Introduction

Loss-to-follow-up among women living with HIV (WLWHIV) may lead to unfavorable outcomes for both mother and exposed infant. This study traced WLWHIV disengaged from care and their infants and compared their outcomes with those retained in care.

Methods

The study included WLWHIV who initiated ART during pregnancy at six public clinics in Uganda. A woman was defined as disengaged (DW) if she had not attended her 6-week post-partum visit by 10 weeks after her estimated date of delivery. DW were matched with retained women (RW) by age and duration on ART. Nurse counselors traced all selected DW via telephone and community visits to assess vital status, infant HIV sero-status and maternal HIV viral load through blood draws.

Results

Between July 2017 and July 2018, 734 women (359 DW and 375 RW) were identified for the study. Tracing was attempted on 349 DW and 160 (44.6%) were successfully located and enrolled in the study. They were matched with 162 RW. Among DW, 52 (32.5%) transferred to another health facility. Very few DW, 39.0% were HIV virally suppressed (<1000 copies/ml) compared to RW 89.5%, P<0.001). Among 138 babies born to DW, 4.3% tested positive for HIV compared to 1.4% among babies born to RW (P = 0.163).

Conclusion

Pregnant and breastfeeding WLWHIV who disengage from care are difficult to find in urban environments. Many have detectable viral loads, leading to the potential for an increased risk of MTCT. Efforts to reduce disengagement from care are critical for the successful elimination of MTCT in resource-limited settings.

The Value of Assessing Self-Reported and Biological Indicators of Outcomes in Evaluating HIV Programs

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In this manuscript, we present recent findings concerning concordance and discrepancy between biological measures and self-reports of these three outcomes of HIV programs: HIV status, adherence to antiretroviral medications (ARVs) and use of and adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis medication (PrEP), and condom use/unprotected sex.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies suggest that three successive rapid HIV tests (for those whose first test in positive) might be reasonably inexpensive and valid biological data to collect to combine with self-reports of HIV status, dried blood spots sufficiently affordable to combine with self-reports of adherence to ARVs and use of or adherence to PrEP, and that the discrepancy between self-reports of condom use and biomarkers of unprotected sex may be relatively small in high-income countries. Additional work on assessment of incorrect condom usage and breakage, standardized self-report measures of condom use, and more private data collection methodologies in low-income settings might reduce the recent observed discrepancies even further. Concordance between self-reports of HIV and biomarkers indicating HIV positive status has varied considerably, with much lower rates in low-income countries, where the stigma of HIV is still very high. Recommendation is for combining self-report data with the results of three successive rapid tests for those testing positive. For adherence, again agreement between self-reports and a variety of more objective and/or biological measures is only moderate. Dried blood spots (DBS) may be sufficiently inexpensive in low-resource settings that this may be the best biological method to combine with self-reports. In publications over the last 8 years, the discrepancy between self-reports of condom use and biomarkers for unprotected sex may be even lower than 20% after controlling for other features of the study, particularly in high-income countries. Our results suggest that more careful assessment of incorrect condom use and breakage as reasons other than intentional misreporting should be investigated more carefully and that more private data collection methods such as audio, computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) might be employed more often in low-resource settings to reduce this discrepancy in those settings further. In addition, further analysis of the discrepancy between self-reports of condom use and biomarkers should be conducted of published studies using the correct calculation methods to be more certain of these findings.

Characteristics of adolescents aged 15-19 years living with vertically and horizontally acquired HIV in Nampula, Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV) 15-19 years of age are a growing proportion of all people living with HIV globally and the population includes adolescents with vertically acquired HIV (AVH) and behaviorally acquired HIV (ABH).

METHODS

We conducted a survey to measure sociodemographic characteristics, educational status, health history, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence among a convenience sample of ALHIV at three government health facilities in 2019 in Nampula, Mozambique. ALHIV 15-19 years on ART, including females attending antenatal care, were eligible. Routine HIV care data were extracted from medical charts. Classification of ALHIV by mode of transmission was based on medical charts and survey data. ALHIV who initiated ART <15 years or reported no sex were considered AVH; all others ABH. Frequencies were compared by sex, and within sex, by mode of transmission (AVH vs. ABH) using Chi-square, Fishers exact tests and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.

RESULTS

Among 208 ALHIV, 143 (69%) were female and median age was 18 years [interquartile range (IQR) 16-19]. Just over half of ALHIV (53%) were in or had completed secondary or higher levels of education; the most common reason for not being in school reported by 36% of females was pregnancy or having a child. Of all ALHIV, 122 (59%) had VL data, 62% of whom were <1000 copies/mL. Almost half (46%) of ALHIV reported missing ARVs ≥ 1 day in the past month (62% of males vs. 39% of females; p = 0.003). Just over half (58%) of ALHIV in relationships had disclosed their HIV status: 13% of males vs. 69% of females (p<0.001). Among sexually active males, 61% reported using a condom at last sex compared to 26% of females (p<0.001). Among female ALHIV, 50 (35%) were AVH and 93 (65%) were ABH, 67% of whom were not in school compared to 16% of ABH, (p<0.001).

DISCUSSION

Data from our study underscore the high level of deprivation among ALHIV enrolled in HIV care in Mozambique, as well as important disparities by sex and mode of transmission. These data can inform the development of effective interventions for this complex and important population.

Accuracy of self-reported HIV-testing history and awareness of HIV-positive status in four sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

In many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, self-reported HIV testing history and awareness of HIV-positive status from household surveys are used to estimate the percentage of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who know their HIV status. Despite widespread use, there is limited empirical information on the sensitivity of those self-reports, which can be affected by nondisclosure.

METHODS

Bayesian latent class models were used to estimate the sensitivity of self-reported HIV-testing history and awareness of HIV-positive status in four Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in Eswatini, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia. Antiretroviral (ARV) metabolite biomarkers were used to identify persons on treatment who did not accurately report their status. For those without ARV biomarkers, we used a pooled estimate of nondisclosure among untreated persons that was 1.48 higher than those on treatment.

RESULTS

Among PLHIV, the model-estimated sensitivity of self-reported HIV-testing history ranged from 96% to 99% across surveys. The model-estimated sensitivity of self-reported awareness of HIV status varied from 91% to 97%. Nondisclosure was generally higher among men and those aged 15-24 years. Adjustments for imperfect sensitivity did not substantially influence estimates of PLHIV ever tested (difference <4%) but the proportion of PLHIV aware of their HIV-positive status was higher than the unadjusted proportion (difference <8%).

CONCLUSION

Self-reported HIV-testing histories in four Eastern and Southern African countries are generally robust although adjustment for nondisclosure increases estimated awareness of status. These findings can contribute to further refinements in methods for monitoring progress along the HIV testing and treatment cascade.

HIV testing, care and viral suppression among men who have sex with men and transgender individuals in Johannesburg, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Men who have sex with men and transgender individuals (MSM/TG) carry a disproportionately high burden of HIV, including in South Africa. However, there are few empirical population-representative estimates of viral suppression and the HIV care cascade including HIV testing among this population, nor of factors associated with these outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a respondent driven sampling (RDS) survey among 301 MSM/TG in Johannesburg in 2017. Participants gave blood samples for HIV testing and viral load. Participants self-completed a survey including sociodemographics, HIV testing history, and engagement in care. We calculated RDS-II weighted estimates of the percentage of HIV-negative MSM/TG reporting HIV testing in the previous 6 months, their testing experience and preferences. Among those HIV-positive, we estimated the percentage status-aware, on ART, and virally suppressed (<50 viral copies/ml plasma). We conducted RDS-weighted robust Poisson regression to obtain weighted prevalence ratios of factors associated with 1) HIV testing among those HIV-negative; and 2) viral suppression among those HIV-positive.

RESULTS

There were 118/300 HIV-positive MSM/TG, (37.5%). Of the HIV-negative MSM/TG, 61.5% reported that they had tested for HIV in the previous 6 months, which was associated with selling sex to men (Prevalence Ratio = 1.67, 95% CI 1.36-2.05). There were 76/118 HIV-positive MSM/TG (56.5%) who reported having previously tested positive for HIV and 39/118 (30.0%) who reported current ART. There were 58/118 HIV-positive MSM/TG with viral loads <50 copies/ml plasma (46.9%). Viral suppression was associated with older age (adjusted PR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.06 for each year), neighbourhood, and having bought sex from men (adjusted PR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.12-2.08).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV prevalence was very high. Viral suppression among those HIV-positive was similar to the general male population in South Africa, but remains far short of national and international targets. A majority of HIV-negative MSM/TG had HIV tested in the previous 6 months, though there is room for improvement.

The role of drug resistance in poor viral suppression in rural South Africa: findings from a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Understanding factors driving virological failure, including the contribution of HIV drug resistance mutations (DRM), is critical to ensuring HIV treatment remains effective. We examine the contribution of drug resistance mutations for low viral suppression in HIV-positive participants in a population-based sero-prevalence survey in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We conducted HIV drug resistance genotyping and ART analyte testing on dried blood spots (DBS) from HIV-positive adults participating in a 2014 survey in North West Province. Among those with virologic failure (> 5000 copies/mL), we describe frequency of DRM to protease inhibitors (PI), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI), and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI), report association of resistance with antiretroviral therapy (ART) status, and assess resistance to first and second line therapy. Analyses are weighted to account for sampling design.

RESULTS

Overall 170 DBS samples were assayed for viral load and ART analytes; 78.4% of men and 50.0% of women had evidence of virologic failure and were assessed for drug resistance, with successful sequencing of 76/107 samples. We found ≥1 DRM in 22% of participants; 47% were from samples with detectable analyte (efavirenz, nevirapine or lopinavir). Of those with DRM and detectable analyte, 60% showed high-level resistance and reduced predicted virologic response to ≥1 NRTI/NNRTI typically used in first and second-line regimens.

CONCLUSIONS

DRM and predicted reduced susceptibility to first and second-line regimens were common among adults with ART exposure in a rural South African population-based sample. Results underscore the importance of ongoing virologic monitoring, regimen optimization and adherence counseling to optimize durable virologic suppression.

Use of viral load to improve survey estimates of known HIV-positive status and antiretroviral treatment coverage

OBJECTIVE

To compare alternative methods of adjusting self-reported knowledge of HIV-positive status and antiretroviral (ARV) therapy use based on undetectable viral load (UVL) and ARV detection in blood.

DESIGN

Post hoc analysis of nationally representative household survey to compare alternative biomarker-based adjustments to population HIV indicators.

METHODS

We reclassified HIV-positive participants aged 15-64 years in the 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) who were unaware of their HIV-positive status by self-report as aware and on antiretroviral treatment if either ARVs were detected or viral load was undetectable (<550 copies/ml) on dried blood spots. We compared self-report to adjustments for ARV measurement, UVL, or both.

RESULTS

Treatment coverage among all HIV-positive respondents increased from 31.8% for self-report to 42.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 37.4-47.8] based on ARV detection alone, to 42.8% (95% CI 37.9-47.8) when ARV-adjusted, 46.2% (95% CI 41.3-51.1) when UVL-adjusted and 48.8% (95% CI 43.9-53.8) when adjusted for either ARV or UVL. Awareness of positive status increased from 46.9% for self-report to 56.2% (95% CI 50.7-61.6) when ARV-adjusted, 57.5% (95% CI 51.9-63.0) when UVL-adjusted, and 59.8% (95% CI 54.2-65.1) when adjusted for either ARV or UVL.

CONCLUSION

Undetectable viral load, which is routinely measured in surveys, may be a useful adjunct or alternative to ARV detection for adjusting survey estimates of knowledge of HIV status and antiretroviral treatment coverage.

Assessment of Non-Adherence to Oral Metformin and Atorvastatin Therapies: A Cross-Sectional Survey in Piedmont (Italy)

INTRODUCTION

It is not possible to recover from chronic diseases; however, a healthy lifestyle and correct adherence to therapy can avoid complications and co-morbidities. The aim of this study was the cross-sectional evaluation, by means of a questionnaire, of real-world data on the prevalence of non-adherence to metformin and atorvastatin oral therapies in a sample of patients that attend community pharmacies in the Piedmont Region. The secondary aim was to evaluate the presence of correlations between non-adherence and a number of variables detected by the questionnaire.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were gathered from face-to-face interviews in six community pharmacies in Piedmont. The questionnaire was divided into two sections: the first included the Morisky, Green and Levine Medication Adherence Questionnaire (MAQ) (to assess therapy adherence); the second included questions on gender, age, level of education and the pharmacy in which the questionnaire was administered. Comparisons between proportions and mean values were performed using the χ2 test. Modified Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used for multivariate analysis. The level of significance was fixed at 0.05, CI at 95%.

RESULTS

The sample analysed was composed of 408 subjects (receiving either metformin or atorvastatin). According to MAQ, 62 patients were non-adherent (15% of the total cohort). Crude and multivariate analysis did not show any statistically significant correlation between gender, age, level of education and non-adherence. It emerged that there was a correlation between non-adherence and being a customer of two of the pharmacies involved [PR = 3.31 (p=0.028) and PR = 3.11 (p=0.027)].

CONCLUSIONS

Community pharmacies can be an appropriate setting to identify non-adherent patients. Therefore, healthcare professionals could realize an integrated and structured intervention to improve adherence. However, MAQ could underestimate the number of non-adherent patients. Further studies to test the association between non-adherence prevalence and being the customer of a specific pharmacy should be performed.

National HIV testing and diagnosis coverage in sub-Saharan Africa: a new modeling tool for estimating the 'first 90' from program and survey data

OBJECTIVE

HIV testing services (HTS) are a crucial component of national HIV responses. Learning one's HIV diagnosis is the entry point to accessing life-saving antiretroviral treatment and care. Recognizing the critical role of HTS, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) launched the 90-90-90 targets stipulating that by 2020, 90% of people living with HIV know their status, 90% of those who know their status receive antiretroviral therapy, and 90% of those on treatment have a suppressed viral load. Countries will need to regularly monitor progress on these three indicators. Estimating the proportion of people living with HIV who know their status (i.e. the 'first 90'), however, is difficult.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model (henceforth referred to as 'Shiny90') that formally synthesizes population-based survey and HTS program data to estimate HIV status awareness over time. The proposed model uses country-specific HIV epidemic parameters from the standard UNAIDS Spectrum model to produce outputs that are consistent with other national HIV estimates. Shiny90 provides estimates of HIV testing history, diagnosis rates, and knowledge of HIV status by age and sex. We validate Shiny90 using both in-sample comparisons and out-of-sample predictions using data from three countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, and Mozambique.

RESULTS

In-sample comparisons suggest that Shiny90 can accurately reproduce longitudinal sex-specific trends in HIV testing. Out-of-sample predictions of the fraction of people living with HIV ever tested over a 4-to-6-year time horizon are also in good agreement with empirical survey estimates. Importantly, out-of-sample predictions of HIV knowledge of status are consistent (i.e. within 4% points) with those of the fully calibrated model in the three countries when HTS program data are included. The model's predictions of knowledge of status are higher than available self-reported HIV awareness estimates, however, suggesting - in line with previous studies - that these self-reports could be affected by nondisclosure of HIV status awareness.

CONCLUSION

Knowledge of HIV status is a key indicator to monitor progress, identify bottlenecks, and target HIV responses. Shiny90 can help countries track progress towards their 'first 90' by leveraging surveys of HIV testing behaviors and annual HTS program data.

Characterizing Sociostructural Associations With New HIV Diagnoses Among Female Sex Workers in Cameroon

BACKGROUND

Female sex workers (FSW) are disproportionately affected by HIV in Cameroon, with an estimated 23.6% HIV prevalence. Given the unavailability of HIV incidence data, to better understand associations with acquiring HIV we assessed the prevalence and associations with new HIV diagnoses among FSW in Cameroon.

METHODS

In 2016, FSW were recruited through respondent-driven sampling from 5 cities for a biobehavioral survey. Participants self-reporting living with HIV or with an indeterminate test status were excluded from analysis. New diagnoses were defined as testing HIV-positive when participants self-reported HIV-negative or unknown status. A multivariable modified Poisson regression model was developed to assess determinants of new HIV diagnosis (referent group: HIV-negative) using key covariates; adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) are reported if statistically significant (P < 0.05).

RESULTS

Overall 2255 FSW were recruited. Excluding participants who self-reported living with HIV (n = 297) and indeterminate test results (n = 7), 260/1951 (13.3%) FSW were newly diagnosed with HIV. Variables significantly associated with new HIV diagnosis were: no secondary/higher education [aPR: 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12 to 2.15], 5+ dependents compared with none (aPR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.01 to 4.40), 5+ years involved in sex work compared with <1 year (aPR: 2.84, 95% CI: 1.26 to 6.42), history of incarceration (aPR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.13 to 3.99), and low social capital (aPR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.12 to 2.10). Higher monthly income (>250,000 FCFA vs. <50,000 FCFA) was associated with lower prevalence of new HIV diagnosis (aPR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

There are significant sociostructural factors that seem to potentiate risk of HIV infection and delay diagnosis among FSW in Cameroon. Initiatives to build social capital and integrate services such as pre-exposure prophylaxis and HIV self-testing into HIV programs may reduce new infections and decrease time to diagnosis and treatment.

Space-time clustering of recently-diagnosed tuberculosis and impact of ART scale-up: Evidence from an HIV hyper-endemic rural South African population

In HIV hyperendemic sub-Saharan African communities, particularly in southern Africa, the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of ending the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030 is low, due to lack of cost-effective and practical interventions in population settings. We used one of Africa’s largest population-based prospective cohorts from rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, to measure the spatial variations in the prevalence of recently-diagnosed TB disease, and to quantify the impact of community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on recently-diagnosed TB disease. We collected data on TB disease episodes from a population-based sample of 41,812 adult individuals between 2009 and 2015. Spatial clusters (‘hotspots’) of recently-diagnosed TB were identified using a space-time scan statistic. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to investigate the relationship between community ART coverage and recently-diagnosed TB. Spatial clusters of recently-diagnosed TB were identified in a region characterized by a high prevalence of HIV and population movement. Every percentage increase in ART coverage was associated with a 2% decrease in the odds of recently-diagnosed TB (aOR = 0.98, 95% CI:0.97–0.99). We identified for the first time the clear occurrence of recently-diagnosed TB hotspots, and quantified potential benefit of increased community ART coverage in lowering tuberculosis, highlighting the need to prioritize the expansion of such effective population interventions targeting high-risk areas.

Improvements in the South African HIV care cascade: findings on 90-90-90 targets from successive population-representative surveys in North West Province

INTRODUCTION

To achieve epidemic control of HIV by 2030, countries aim to meet 90-90-90 targets to increase knowledge of HIV-positive status, initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression by 2020. We assessed the progress towards these targets from 2014 to 2016 in South Africa as expanded treatment policies were introduced using population-representative surveys.

METHODS

Data were collected in January to March 2014 and August to November 2016 in Dr. Ruth Segomotsi Mompati District, North West Province. Each multi-stage cluster sample included 46 enumeration areas (EA), a target of 36 dwelling units (DU) per EA, and a single resident aged 18 to 49 per DU. Data collection included behavioural surveys, rapid HIV antibody testing and dried blood spot collection. We used weighted general linear regression to evaluate differences in the HIV care continuum over time.

RESULTS

Overall, 1044 and 971 participants enrolled in 2014 and 2016 respectively with approximately 77% undergoing HIV testing. Despite increases in reported testing, known status among people living with HIV (PLHIV) remained similar at 68.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 60.9-75.6) in 2014 and 72.8% (95% CI = 63.6-80.4) in 2016. Men were consistently less likely than women to know their status. Among those with known status, PLHIV on ART increased significantly from 80.9% (95% CI = 71.9-87.4) to 91.5% (95% CI = 84.4-95.5). Viral suppression (<5000 copies/mL using DBS) among those on ART increased significantly from 55.0% (95% CI = 39.6-70.4) in 2014 to 81.4% (95% CI = 72.0-90.8) in 2016. Among all PLHIV an estimated 72.0% (95% CI = 63.8-80.1) of women and 45.8% (95% CI = 27.0-64.7) of men achieved viral suppression by 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a period during which fixed-dose combination was introduced, ART eligibility expanded, and efforts to streamline treatment were implemented, major improvements in the second and third 90-90-90 targets were achieved. Achieving the first 90 target will require targeted and improved testing models for men.

Characterising unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs among young female sex workers and young men who have sex with men in Cameroon: a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

In Cameroon, female sex workers (FSWs) and men who have sex with men (MSM) carry disproportionately high burdens of HIV. Despite specific vulnerabilities and health needs, young key populations remain understudied and underserved in Cameroon owing to legal, ethical, and social challenges. We aimed to assess and compare HIV-related behavioural and structural risks and coverage of HIV prevention and treatment services between young and older key populations to inform implementation strategies.

METHODS

FSWs and MSM aged 18 years or older were recruited through respondent-driven-sampling for a biobehavioural survey carried out in five Cameroonian cities. Prevalence of HIV, risk, stigma, and health service engagement were compared between young (18-24 years) and older (≥25 years) key populations. Multivariable Poisson regression models, disaggregated by key population, were constructed to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) by age group for HIV service engagement.

FINDINGS

Participants were recruited between Nov 30, 2015, and Oct 12, 2016. Among FSWs, 724 (32%) of 2255 were aged 18-24 years, and median age of first transactional or compensated sex was 22 years (IQR 19-28). Among MSM, 840 (63%) of 1323 were aged 18-24 years, and median age of first anal sex was 18 years (IQR 17-21). RDS-adjusted HIV prevalence was 8·5% (95% CI 4·7-15·2) among young FSWs and 12·9% (9·5-18·2) among young MSM. HIV viral suppression (<1000 copies per mL) was evident in 24 (43%) of 56 young and 292 (61%) of 479 older FSWs (p=0·0091) and 40 (34%) of 119 of young and 64 (42%) of 153 older MSM (p=0·17). Young FSWs were less likely than older FSWs to report recent peer education (PR 0·65, 95% CI 0·48-0·88), or membership of an FSW community-based organisation (PR 0·69, 0·55-0·86) and were more likely to report untreated sexually transmitted infection symptoms in the past year (PR 1·29, 1·03-1·61). Young MSM were less likely than older MSM to report an HIV test in the past year (PR 0·88, 0·78-0·98), recent peer education (PR 0·77, 0·62-0·95) and receipt of free condoms (PR 0·77, 0·67-0·89). By key population, condom use and recent experiences of stigma and violence were similar between age groups (p>0·05).

INTERPRETATION

Young key populations have similar behavioural and structural risks to older populations but have lower coverage of HIV preventive and treatment services. Achieving an AIDS-free generation in Cameroon and elsewhere in the region necessitates overcoming social and legal challenges and delivering innovative, evidence-based, and human rights-affirming HIV prevention and treatment interventions for young key populations.

FUNDING

PEPFAR, USAID.