Secondary spread of invasive species: historic patterns and underlying mechanisms of the continuing invasion of the European rockweed Fucus serratus in eastern North America

Predicting habitat suitability for alien macroalgae in relation to thermal niche occupancy

Invasive species are a major threat to global diversity and can interact synergistically or antagonistically with various components of climate change. Using species distribution models (SDMs) at different spatial scales and resolutions, we determined the main variables affecting the distribution of six invasive macroalgae present on European coasts. We also studied occupation of the thermal realized niche and predicted areas potentially at risk of invasion. The climatic variables related to warming had a greater influence on distribution at large scales, while non-climatic variables related to river influence and maritime transport at regional scale. Invaders often seemed to occupy colder areas than in their native area. The combination of SDMs with thermal niche of species is a useful way of clarifying the invasion process. This approach will help in the development of preventive strategies whereby the responsible authorities can implement early detection systems and respond swiftly to the appearance of biopollutants.

Dynamics of recruitment and establishment of the invasive seaweed Codium fragile within an eelgrass habitat

Knowledge of the potential distribution (i.e. abundance and spatial extent) of an invasive species is important to estimating its potential impacts on recipient communities. Most previous studies have focused on the potential spatial extent of invasive species populations at regional scales, but little is known on how species successfully recruit and establish at more local scales. In this study, we examined how recruitment of the green alga Codium fragile ssp. fragile (hereafter Codium) can vary spatially and the environmental factors associated with Codium establishment in eelgrass (Zostera marina) beds. Standardized recruitment blocks (65 blocks in a 720 × 240 m² grid) were used to monitor the number of Codium recruits, juveniles and adults over 2 years. Environmental factors (depth, relative water flow, light and temperature) and attributes of the surrounding macrophyte assemblage (eelgrass density, eelgrass length, Codium biomass) were also measured. Recruitment occurred on all blocks or nearby artificial structures (i.e. buoys) and mainly originated from button stages (i.e. female gametes or utricles). Contrary to other studies, the abundance of Codium (recruits, juveniles and adults) was best predicted by the density of the native canopy-forming species, Z. marina, which highlights a positive interaction between native and non-native canopy-forming species. Seasonal variation in recruitment was observed; it was lower during the summer. Recruitment did not show any distinct spatial pattern (e.g. gradient or patch), but the same spatial pattern of recruitment was observed every sampling date, suggesting that there are "hotspots" for recruitment. In general, the total number of Codium fronds observed on a block at the end of the experiment was positively correlated with the cumulative number of recruits. However, recruitment occurred on some blocks but recruits never grew, suggesting that some environmental factors limit Codium distribution and abundance in eelgrass beds. Overall, the assessment of Codium recruitment over 2 years showed that the colonization of suitable locations by Codium within seagrass beds may take several years and that some factors may not only limit, but also inhibit Codium expansion within eelgrass beds.

The fate of the Arctic seaweed Fucus distichus under climate change: an ecological niche modeling approach

Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy‐forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate‐change on rocky‐shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate‐change induced range‐shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy‐forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold‐temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range‐limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate‐change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus – and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae – until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold‐temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate‐change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm‐temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed‐harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem.

Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal

The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or "unit" and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem.