Can gypsy moth stand the heat? A reciprocal transplant experiment with an invasive forest pest across its southern range margin

Geographic variation in larval cold tolerance and exposure across the invasion front of a widely established forest insect

Under global climate change, high and low temperature extremes can drive shifts in species distributions. Across the range of a species, thermal tolerance is based on acclimatization, plasticity, and may undergo selection, shaping resilience to temperature stress. In this study, we measured variation in cold temperature tolerance of early instar larvae of an invasive forest insect, Lymantria dispar dispar L. (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), using populations sourced from a range of climates within the current introduced range in the Eastern United States. We tested for population differences in chill coma recovery (CCR) by measuring recovery time following a period of exposure to a nonlethal cold temperature in 2 cold exposure experiments. A 3rd experiment quantified growth responses after CCR to evaluate sublethal effects. Our results indicate that cold tolerance is linked to regional climate, with individuals from populations sourced from colder climates recovering faster from chill coma. While this geographic gradient is seen in many species, detecting this pattern is notable for an introduced species founded from a single point-source introduction. We demonstrate that the cold temperatures used in our experiments occur in nature during cold spells after spring egg hatch, but impacts to growth and survival appear low. We expect that population differences in cold temperature performance manifest more from differences in temperature-dependent growth than acute exposure. Evaluating intraspecific variation in cold tolerance increases our understanding of the role of climatic gradients on the physiology of an invasive species, and contributes to tools for predicting further expansion.

Uniting Experiments and Big Data to advance ecology and conservation

Many ecologists increasingly advocate for research frameworks centered on the use of 'big data' to address anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems. Yet, experiments are often considered essential for identifying mechanisms and informing conservation interventions. We highlight the complementarity of these research frameworks and expose largely untapped opportunities for combining them to speed advancements in ecology and conservation. With nascent but increasing application of model integration, we argue that there is an urgent need to unite experimental and big data frameworks throughout the scientific process. Such an integrated framework offers potential for capitalizing on the benefits of both frameworks to gain rapid and reliable answers to ecological challenges.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest insect populations under climate change

Effects of climate on forest insect populations are complex, often involving drivers that are opposing, nonlinear, and nonadditive. Overall, climate change is driving an increase in outbreaks and range shifts. Links between climate and forest insect dynamics are becoming clearer; however, the underlying mechanisms remain less clear. Climate alters forest insect population dynamics directly through life history, physiology, and voltinism, and indirectly through effects on host trees and natural enemies. Climatic effects on bark beetles, wood-boring insects, and sap-suckers are often indirect, through effects on host-tree susceptibility, whereas climatic effects on defoliators are comparatively more direct. We recommend process-based approaches to global distribution mapping and population models to identify the underlying mechanisms and enable effective management of forest insects.

Size-dependent flight capacity and propensity in a range-expanding invasive insect

For capital-breeding insects, all resources available for adult metabolic needs are accumulated during larval feeding. Therefore, body size at adult eclosion represents the total energetic capacity of the individual. For female capital breeders, body size is strongly correlated with lifetime fecundity, while in males, body size, which correlates with fitness, is less understood. In capital-breeding species with wingless, flightless, or dispersal-limited females, flight potential for male Lepidoptera has important implications for mate-finding and may be correlated with body size. At low population densities, failure to mate has been identified as an important Allee effect and can drive the success or failure of invasive species at range edges and in species of conservation concern. Th capital-breeding European subspecies of Lymantria dispar (L.), was introduced to North America in 1869 and now ranges across much of eastern North America. In L. dispar, females are flightless and mate-finding is entirely performed by males. We quantified male L. dispar flight capacity and propensity relative to morphological and physiological characteristics using fixed-arm flight mills. A range of male body sizes was produced by varying the protein content of standard artificial diets while holding other dietary components constant. Wing length, a proxy for body size, relative thorax mass, and forewing aspect were all important predictors of total flight distance and maximum speed. These results have important implications for mate-finding and invasion dynamics in L. dispar and may apply broadly to other capital-breeding insects.

Assessing drivers of localized invasive spread to inform large-scale management of a highly damaging insect pest

Studies of biological invasions at the macroscale or across multiple scales can provide important insights for management, particularly when localized information about invasion dynamics or environmental contexts is unavailable. In this study, we performed a macroscale analysis of the roles of invasion drivers on the local scale dynamics of a high-profile pest, Lymantria dispar dispar L., with the purpose of improving the prioritization of vulnerable areas for treatment. Specifically, we assessed the relative effects of various anthropogenic and environmental variables on the establishment rate of 8010 quadrats at a localized scale (5 × 5 km) across the entire L. dispar transition zone (the area encompassing the leading population edge, currently from Minnesota to North Carolina). We calculated the number of years from first detection of L. dispar in a quadrat to the year when probability of establishment of L. dispar was greater than 99% (i.e., waiting time to establishment after first detection). To assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on each quadrat's waiting time to establishment, we performed linear mixed-effects regression models for the full transition zone and three subregions within the zone. Seasonal temperatures were found to be the primary drivers of local establishment rates. Winter temperatures had the strongest effects, especially in the northern parts of the transition zone. Furthermore, the effects of some factors on waiting times to establishment varied across subregions. Our findings contribute to identifying especially vulnerable areas to further L. dispar spread and informing region-specific criteria by invasion managers for the prioritization of areas for treatment.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Potential Differences and Methods of Determining Gypsy Moth Female Flight Capabilities: Implications for the Establishment and Spread in Novel Habitats

The introduction of the Asian gypsy moth into novel environments continues with frequent interceptions in North America. There is a concern that these subspecies will pose a greater threat to the forests and urban environments of North America than the established gypsy moths (Lymantria dispardispar L.), due to their greater capacity for female flight. Asian gypsy moth populations vary in many key traits, including female flight capabilities. The potential impacts of female flight, in combination with the other key traits, on the ecology and spread of this insect are first discussed in this communication. This also provides the first review of most of the current literature on the variations in flight capability and flight distance of gypsy moth populations, as well as variation in other traits of concern and the potential methods of identification, with special attention paid to the Asian subspecies Lymantria dispar japonica Motschulsky and Lymantria dispar asiatica Vinkovskij. There are currently good tools for identifying the general origin of introduced gypsy moth populations, but these do not provide enough information to effectively manage introductions. Gypsy moth key traits differ among populations, even within each subspecies of the gypsy moth, so introduction of gypsy moths from other world areas into locations where the gypsy moth is already present could result in unwanted changes in gypsy moth biology. It also appears that the introduction of flight-capable females could enhance a population’s dispersal capability and require modifications to management protocols used for flightless females. Therefore, rapid tools to assess key traits in introduced populations are needed to adequately plan for, or deal with, new introductions into novel habitats.

Evolutionary genomics of gypsy moth populations sampled along a latitudinal gradient

The European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) was first introduced to Massachusetts in 1869 and within 150 years has spread throughout eastern North America. This large-scale invasion across a heterogeneous landscape allows examination of the genetic signatures of adaptation potentially associated with rapid geographical spread. We tested the hypothesis that spatially divergent natural selection has driven observed changes in three developmental traits that were measured in a common garden for 165 adult moths sampled from six populations across a latitudinal gradient covering the entirety of the range. We generated genotype data for 91,468 single nucleotide polymorphisms based on double digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing and used these data to discover genome-wide associations for each trait, as well as to test for signatures of selection on the discovered architectures. Genetic structure across the introduced range of gypsy moth was low in magnitude (F_ST  = 0.069), with signatures of bottlenecks and spatial expansion apparent in the rare portion of the allele frequency spectrum. Results from applications of Bayesian sparse linear mixed models were consistent with the presumed polygenic architectures of each trait. Further analyses indicated spatially divergent natural selection acting on larval development time and pupal mass, with the linkage disequilibrium component of this test acting as the main driver of observed patterns. The populations most important for these signals were two range-edge populations established less than 30 generations ago. We discuss the importance of rapid polygenic adaptation to the ability of non-native species to invade novel environments.