Current and future distribution of the invasive oak processionary moth

Strategies for public health adaptation to climate change in practice: social learning in the processionary Moth Knowledge Platform

Social learning theory can support understanding of how a group of diverse actors addresses complex challenges related to public health adaptation. This study focuses on one specific issue of public health adaptation: oak processionary moth (OPM) adaptation. With a social learning framework, we examined how public health adaption strategies gradually develop and are adjusted on the basis of new knowledge and experiences. For this qualitative case study, data were collected through 27 meetings of the Processionary Moth Knowledge Platform in the Netherlands and six additional interviews. Results indicate that relations between stakeholders, including experts played a major role in the learning process, facilitating the development and implementation of OPM adaptation and connecting local challenges to national adaptation strategies. Uncertainties regarding knowledge and organization were recurrent topics of discussion, highlighting the iterative and adaptive nature of public health adaptation. The study emphasizes the importance of building relationships among stakeholders and small steps in the learning process that can lead to the creation of new strategies and, if successful, the prevention of negative health impacts.

Quantifying Invasive Pest Dynamics through Inference of a Two-Node Epidemic Network Model

Invasive woodland pests have substantial ecological, economic, and social impacts, harming biodiversity and ecosystem services. Mathematical modelling informed by Bayesian inference can deepen our understanding of the fundamental behaviours of invasive pests and provide predictive tools for forecasting future spread. A key invasive pest of concern in the UK is the oak processionary moth (OPM). OPM was established in the UK in 2006; it is harmful to both oak trees and humans, and its infestation area is continually expanding. Here, we use a computational inference scheme to estimate the parameters for a two-node network epidemic model to describe the temporal dynamics of OPM in two geographically neighbouring parks (Bushy Park and Richmond Park, London). We show the applicability of such a network model to describing invasive pest dynamics and our results suggest that the infestation within Richmond Park has largely driven the infestation within Bushy Park.

Climate change and the potential distribution of the glassy-winged sharpshooter (Homalodisca vitripennis), an insect vector of Xylella fastidiosa

Biological invasions represent a major threat for biodiversity and agriculture. Despite efforts to restrict the spread of alien species, preventing their introduction remains the best strategy for an efficient control. In that context preparedness of phytosanitary authorities is very important and estimating the geographical range of alien species becomes a key information. The present study investigates the potential geographical range of the glassy-winged sharpshooter (Homalodisca vitripennis), a very efficient insect vector of Xylella fastidiosa, one of the most dangerous plant-pathogenic bacteria worldwide. We use species distribution modeling (SDM) to analyse the climate factors driving the insect distribution and we evaluate its potential distribution in its native range (USA) and in Europe according to current climate and different scenarios of climate change: 6 General Circulation Models (GCM), 4 shared socioeconomic pathways of gas emission and 4 time periods (2030, 2050, 2070, 2090). The first result is that the climate conditions of the European continent are suitable to the glassy-winged sharpshooter, in particular around the Mediterranean basin where X. fastidiosa is present. Projections according to future climate conditions indicate displacement of climatically suitable areas towards the north in both North America and Europe. Globally, suitable areas will decrease in North America and increase in Europe in the coming decades. SDM outputs vary according to the GCM considered and this variability indicated areas of uncertainty in the species potential range. Both potential distribution and its uncertainty associated to future climate projections are important information for improved preparedness of phytosanitary authorities.

Economic costs of biological invasions in the United Kingdom

Although the high costs of invasion are frequently cited and are a key motivation for environmental management and policy, synthesised data on invasion costs are scarce. Here, we quantify and examine the monetary costs of biological invasions in the United Kingdom (UK) using a global synthesis of reported invasion costs. Invasive alien species have cost the UK economy between US$6.9 billion and $17.6 billion (£5.4 – £13.7 billion) in reported losses and expenses since 1976. Most costs were reported for the entire UK or Great Britain (97%); country-scale cost reporting for the UK's four constituent countries was scarce. Reports of animal invasions were the costliest ($4.7 billion), then plant ($1.3 billion) and fungal ($206.7 million) invasions. Reported damage costs (i.e. excluding management costs) were higher in terrestrial ($4.8 billion) than aquatic or semi-aquatic environments ($29.8 million), and primarily impacted agriculture ($4.2 billion). Invaders with earlier introduction years accrued significantly higher total invasion costs. Invasion costs have been increasing rapidly since 1976, and have cost the UK economy $157.1 million (£122.1 million) per annum, on average. Published information on specific economic costs included only 42 of 520 invaders reported in the UK and was generally available only for the most intensively studied taxa, with just four species contributing 90% of species-specific costs. Given that many of the invasive species lacking cost data are actively managed and have well-recognised impacts, this suggests that cost information is incomplete and that totals presented here are vast underestimates owing to knowledge gaps. Financial expenditure on managing invasions is a fraction (37%) of the costs incurred through damage from invaders; greater investments in UK invasive species research and management are, therefore, urgently required.

Citizen science and niche modeling to track and forecast the expansion of the brown marmorated stinkbug Halyomorpha halys (Stål, 1855)

Halyomorpha halys (Stål, 1855), the Brown Marmorated StinkBug (BMSB) is a highly successful invasive species native to eastern Asia that managed to spread into North America and Europe in recent decades. We set up a citizen science survey to monitor BMSB expansion in France in 2012 and analyzed the data it yielded between 2012 and 2019 to examine the local expansion of the insect. These data were gathered with occurrences form various sources (GBIF, literature) to calibrate a species niche model and assess potential current BMSB range. We evaluated the potential changes to the BMSB range due to climate change by projecting the model according to 6 global circulation models (GCM) and the shared socio-economic pathways SSP245 in two time periods 2021-2040 and 2041-2060. Citizen science allowed to track BMSB expansion in France and provided information about its phenology and its habitat preferences. The model highlighted the potential for further range expansion in Europe and illustrated the impact of climate change. These results could help managing the current BMSB invasion and the framework of this survey could contribute to a better preparedness of phytosanitary authorities either for the BMSB or other invasive pests.

The Vision of Managing for Pest-Resistant Landscapes: Realistic or Utopic?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Forest managers have long suggested that forests can be made more resilient to insect pests by reducing the abundance of hosts, yet this has rarely been done. The goal of our paper is to review whether recent scientific evidence supports forest manipulation to decrease vulnerability. To achieve this goal, we first ask if outbreaks of forest insect pests have been more severe in recent decades. Next, we assess the relative importance of climate change and forest management-induced changes in forest composition/structure in driving these changes in severity.

RECENT FINDINGS

Forest structure and composition continue to be implicated in pest outbreak severity. Mechanisms, however, remain elusive. Recent research elucidates how forest compositional and structural diversity at neighbourhood, stand, and landscape scales can increase forest resistance to outbreaks. Many recent outbreaks of herbivorous forest insects have been unprecedented in terms of duration and spatial extent. Climate change may be a contributing factor, but forest structure and composition have been clearly identified as contributing to these unprecedented outbreaks.

SUMMARY

Current research supports using silviculture to create pest-resistant forest landscapes. However, the precise mechanisms by which silviculture can increase resistance remains uncertain. Further, humans tend to more often create pest-prone forests due to political, economic, and human resistance to change and a short-sighted risk management perspective that focuses on reactive rather than proactive responses to insect outbreak threats. Future research efforts need to focus on social, political, cultural, and educational mechanisms to motivate implementation of proven ecological solutions if pest-resistant forests are to be favoured by management.

Understanding Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change: An Explorative Study on the Development of Adaptation Strategies Relating to the Oak Processionary Moth in The Netherlands

Understanding of public health adaptation (PHA) to climate change and implementation is limited. This study therefore focuses on one specific PHA issue: adaptation to the oak processionary moth (OPM). The aim is to examine the development of OPM adaptation in order to offer a problem description of the complexities involved in OPM adaptation. In this explorative case study, we investigate adaptation strategies based on semi-structured interviews with 26 actors involved in OPM adaptation in The Netherlands. The results indicate that the context of OPM adaptation is relatively complex, given the involvement of many interdependent actors. OPM adaptation was developed with limited knowledge and strategies were based on ad hoc approaches in which there was ambiguity about tasks and expertise. In addition, different actors have different perceptions and values concerning health, sustainability, risks and responsibilities influencing decision-making processes, while also posing a challenge to collaboration and the development of a coordinated approach. The generation of knowledge and its translation into practical strategies calls for interdisciplinary cooperation in knowledge development. PHA adaptation involves more than technical and organisational solutions alone. It also entails the development of a shared problem perception and solution space in which citizens are also engaged.

Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles

Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two polyphagous ambrosia beetles originating from Asia and invasive in circumtropical regions worldwide. Both species were recently reported in Italy and further invaded several other European countries in the following years. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate the suitable areas worldwide for both species under the current climate. We also made future projections for years 2050 and 2070 using 11 different General Circulation Models, for 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Our analyses showed that X. compactus has not been reported in all potentially suitable areas yet. Its current distribution in Europe is localised, whereas our results predicted that most of the periphery of the Mediterranean Sea and most of the Atlantic coast of France could be suitable. Outside Europe, our results also predicted Central America, all islands in Southeast Asia and some Oceanian coasts as suitable. Even though our results when modelling its potential distribution under future climates were more variable, the models predicted an increase in suitability poleward and more uncertainty in the circumtropical regions. For X. crassiusculus, the same method only yielded poor results, and the models thus could not be used for predictions. We discuss here these results and propose advice about risk prevention and invasion management of both species.

Climate change-mediated temperature extremes and insects: From outbreaks to breakdowns

Insects are among the most diverse and widespread animals across the biosphere and are well-known for their contributions to ecosystem functioning and services. Recent increases in the frequency and magnitude of climatic extremes (CE), in particular temperature extremes (TE) owing to anthropogenic climate change, are exposing insect populations and communities to unprecedented stresses. However, a major problem in understanding insect responses to TE is that they are still highly unpredictable both spatially and temporally, which reduces frequency- or direction-dependent selective responses by insects. Moreover, how species interactions and community structure may change in response to stresses imposed by TE is still poorly understood. Here we provide an overview of how terrestrial insects respond to TE by integrating their organismal physiology, multitrophic, and community-level interactions, and building that up to explore scenarios for population explosions and crashes that have ecosystem-level consequences. We argue that TE can push insect herbivores and their natural enemies to and even beyond their adaptive limits, which may differ among species intimately involved in trophic interactions, leading to phenological disruptions and the structural reorganization of food webs. TE may ultimately lead to outbreak-breakdown cycles in insect communities with detrimental consequences for ecosystem functioning and resilience. Lastly, we suggest new research lines that will help achieve a better understanding of insect and community responses to a wide range of CE.