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Sarofim MC, Smith CJ, Malek P, McDuffie EE, Hartin CA, Lay CR, McGrath S. High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble. Nat Commun 2024; 15:8185. [PMID: 39294116 PMCID: PMC11411062 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52437-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/05/2024] [Indexed: 09/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Developing future climate projections begins with choosing future emissions scenarios. While scenarios are often based on storylines, here instead we produce a probabilistic multi-million-member ensemble of radiative forcing trajectories to assess the relevance of future forcing thresholds. We coupled a probabilistic database of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios with a probabilistically calibrated reduced complexity climate model. In 2100, we project median forcings of 5.1 watt per square meters (5th to 95th percentiles of 3.3 to 7.1), with roughly 0.5% probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters, and a 1% probability of being lower than 2.6 watt per square meters. Although the probability of 8.5 watt per square meters scenarios is low, our results support their continued utility for calibrating damage functions, characterizing climate in the 22nd century (the probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters increases to about 7% by 2150), and assessing low-probability/high-impact futures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcus C Sarofim
- US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA.
| | - Christopher J Smith
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Parker Malek
- Abt Global Inc., Tabor Center, 1200 17th Street, 10th Floor, Denver, CO, 80202, USA
| | - Erin E McDuffie
- US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Corinne A Hartin
- US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Claire R Lay
- Abt Global Inc., Tabor Center, 1200 17th Street, 10th Floor, Denver, CO, 80202, USA
| | - Sarah McGrath
- Abt Global Inc., Tabor Center, 1200 17th Street, 10th Floor, Denver, CO, 80202, USA
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Yang H, Gould CA, Jones R, St Juliana A, Sarofim M, Rissing M, Hahn MB. By-degree Health and Economic Impacts of Lyme Disease, Eastern and Midwestern United States. ECOHEALTH 2024; 21:56-70. [PMID: 38478199 PMCID: PMC11127817 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01676-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 01/20/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Abstract
Lyme disease (LD) is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States (U.S.). This paper assesses how climate change may influence LD incidence in the eastern and upper Midwestern U.S. and the associated economic burden. We estimated future Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability and LD incidence with a by-degree approach using variables from an ensemble of multiple climate models. We then applied estimates for present-day and projected habitat suitability for I. scapularis, present-day presence of Borrelia burgdorferi, and projected climatological variables to model reported LD incidence at the county level among adults, children, and the total population. Finally, we applied an estimate of healthcare expenses to project economic impacts. We show an overall increase in LD cases with regional variation. We estimate an increase in incidence in New England and the upper Midwestern U.S. and a concurrent decrease in incidence in Virginia and North Carolina. At 3°C of national warming from the 1986-2015 baseline climate, we project approximately 55,000 LD cases, a 38-percent increase from present-day estimates. At 6°C of warming, our most extreme scenario, we project approximately 92,000 LD cases in the region, an increase of 145 percent relative to current levels. Annual LD-related healthcare expenses at 3°C of warming are estimated to be $236 million (2021 dollars), approximately 38 percent greater than present-day. These results may inform decision-makers tasked with addressing climate risks, the public, and healthcare professionals preparing for treatment and prevention of LD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haisheng Yang
- Abt Associates, 6130 Executive Boulevard, Rockville, MD, 2085, USA
| | - Caitlin A Gould
- Climate Change Division, Climate Science and Imapcts Branch, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 4226-G South, Washington, DC, 20460, USA.
| | - Russ Jones
- Abt Associates, 6130 Executive Boulevard, Rockville, MD, 2085, USA
| | | | - Marcus Sarofim
- Climate Change Division, Climate Science and Imapcts Branch, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 4226-G South, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Matt Rissing
- Abt Associates, 6130 Executive Boulevard, Rockville, MD, 2085, USA
| | - Micah B Hahn
- Institute for Circumpolar Health Studies, University of Alaska-Anchorage, 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, AK, 99508, USA
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Hartin C, McDuffie EE, Noiva K, Sarofim M, Parthum B, Martinich J, Barr S, Neumann J, Willwerth J, Fawcett A. Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS : ESD 2023; 14:1015-1037. [PMID: 37942296 PMCID: PMC10631227 DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Evidence of the physical and economic impacts of climate change is a critical input to policy development and decision-making. In addition to the magnitude of potential impacts, detailed estimates of where, when, and to whom those damages may occur; the types of impacts that will be most damaging; uncertainties in these damages; and the ability of adaptation to reduce potential risks are all interconnected and important considerations. This study utilizes the reduced-complexity model, the Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI), to rapidly project economic and physical impacts of climate change across 10 000 future scenarios for multiple impact sectors, regions, and populations within the contiguous United States (US). Results from FrEDI show that net national damages increase overtime, with mean climate-driven damages estimated to reach USD 2.9 trillion (95 % confidence interval (CI): USD 510 billion to USD 12 trillion) annually by 2090. Detailed FrEDI results show that for the analyzed sectors the majority of annual long-term (e.g., 2090) damages are associated with climate change impacts to human health, including mortality attributable to climate-driven changes in temperature and air pollution (O3 and PM2.5) exposure. Regional results also show that annual long-term climate-driven damages vary geographically. The Southeast (all regions are as defined in Fig. 5) is projected to experience the largest annual damages per capita (mean: USD 9300 per person annually; 95 % CI: USD 1800-USD 37 000 per person annually), whereas the smallest damages per capita are expected in the Southwest (mean: USD 6300 per person annually; 95 % CI: USD 840-USD 27 000 per person annually). Climate change impacts may also broaden existing societal inequalities, with, for example, Black or African Americans being disproportionately affected by additional premature mortality from changes in air quality. Lastly, FrEDI projections are extended through 2300 to estimate the net present climate-driven damages within US borders from marginal changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Combined, this analysis provides the most detailed illustration to date of the distribution of climate change impacts within US borders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Corinne Hartin
- Climate Change Division, Office of Atmospheric Protection, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, USA
| | - Erin E. McDuffie
- Climate Change Division, Office of Atmospheric Protection, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, USA
| | - Karen Noiva
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
| | - Marcus Sarofim
- Climate Change Division, Office of Atmospheric Protection, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, USA
| | - Bryan Parthum
- National Center for Environmental Economics, Office of Policy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, USA
| | - Jeremy Martinich
- Climate Change Division, Office of Atmospheric Protection, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, USA
| | - Sarah Barr
- Climate Change Division, Office of Atmospheric Protection, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, USA
| | - Jim Neumann
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
| | - Jacqueline Willwerth
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
| | - Allen Fawcett
- Climate Change Division, Office of Atmospheric Protection, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, USA
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Belova A, Gould CA, Munson K, Howell M, Trevisan C, Obradovich N, Martinich J. Projecting the Suicide Burden of Climate Change in the United States. GEOHEALTH 2022. [PMID: 35582318 DOI: 10.23719/1524370] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
We quantify and monetize changes in suicide incidence across the conterminous United States (U.S.) in response to increasing levels of warming. We develop an integrated health impact assessment model using binned and linear specifications of temperature-suicide relationship estimates from Mullins and White (2019), in combination with monthly age- and sex-specific baseline suicide incidence rates, projections of six climate models, and population projections at the conterminous U.S. county scale. We evaluate the difference in the annual number of suicides in the U.S. corresponding to 1-6°C of warming compared to 1986-2005 average temperatures (mean U.S. temperatures) and compute 2015 population attributable fractions (PAFs). We use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Value of a Statistical Life to estimate the economic value of avoiding these mortality impacts. Assuming the 2015 population size, warming of 1-6°C could result in an annual increase of 283-1,660 additional suicide cases, corresponding to a PAF of 0.7%-4.1%. The annual economic value of avoiding these impacts is $2 billion-$3 billion (2015 U.S. dollars, 3% discount rate, and 2015 income level). Estimates based on linear temperature-suicide relationship specifications are 7% larger than those based on binned temperature specifications. Accounting for displacement decreases estimates by 17%, while accounting for precipitation decreases estimates by 7%. Population growth between 2015 and the future warming degree arrival year increases estimates by 15%-38%. Further research is needed to quantify and monetize other climate-related mental health outcomes (e.g., anxiety and depression) and to characterize these risks in socially vulnerable populations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Caitlin A Gould
- Climate Change Division U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington DC USA
| | | | | | | | - Nick Obradovich
- Center for Humans and Machines Max Planck Institute for Human Development Berlin Germany
| | - Jeremy Martinich
- Climate Change Division U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington DC USA
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Belova A, Gould CA, Munson K, Howell M, Trevisan C, Obradovich N, Martinich J. Projecting the Suicide Burden of Climate Change in the United States. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2021GH000580. [PMID: 35582318 PMCID: PMC9089437 DOI: 10.1029/2021gh000580] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2021] [Revised: 04/01/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
We quantify and monetize changes in suicide incidence across the conterminous United States (U.S.) in response to increasing levels of warming. We develop an integrated health impact assessment model using binned and linear specifications of temperature-suicide relationship estimates from Mullins and White (2019), in combination with monthly age- and sex-specific baseline suicide incidence rates, projections of six climate models, and population projections at the conterminous U.S. county scale. We evaluate the difference in the annual number of suicides in the U.S. corresponding to 1-6°C of warming compared to 1986-2005 average temperatures (mean U.S. temperatures) and compute 2015 population attributable fractions (PAFs). We use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Value of a Statistical Life to estimate the economic value of avoiding these mortality impacts. Assuming the 2015 population size, warming of 1-6°C could result in an annual increase of 283-1,660 additional suicide cases, corresponding to a PAF of 0.7%-4.1%. The annual economic value of avoiding these impacts is $2 billion-$3 billion (2015 U.S. dollars, 3% discount rate, and 2015 income level). Estimates based on linear temperature-suicide relationship specifications are 7% larger than those based on binned temperature specifications. Accounting for displacement decreases estimates by 17%, while accounting for precipitation decreases estimates by 7%. Population growth between 2015 and the future warming degree arrival year increases estimates by 15%-38%. Further research is needed to quantify and monetize other climate-related mental health outcomes (e.g., anxiety and depression) and to characterize these risks in socially vulnerable populations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Caitlin A. Gould
- Climate Change DivisionU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWashingtonDCUSA
| | | | | | | | - Nick Obradovich
- Center for Humans and MachinesMax Planck Institute for Human DevelopmentBerlinGermany
| | - Jeremy Martinich
- Climate Change DivisionU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWashingtonDCUSA
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Belova A, Gould CA, Munson K, Howell M, Trevisan C, Obradovich N, Martinich J. Projecting the Suicide Burden of Climate Change in the United States. GEOHEALTH 2022. [PMID: 35582318 DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6096271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
We quantify and monetize changes in suicide incidence across the conterminous United States (U.S.) in response to increasing levels of warming. We develop an integrated health impact assessment model using binned and linear specifications of temperature-suicide relationship estimates from Mullins and White (2019), in combination with monthly age- and sex-specific baseline suicide incidence rates, projections of six climate models, and population projections at the conterminous U.S. county scale. We evaluate the difference in the annual number of suicides in the U.S. corresponding to 1-6°C of warming compared to 1986-2005 average temperatures (mean U.S. temperatures) and compute 2015 population attributable fractions (PAFs). We use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Value of a Statistical Life to estimate the economic value of avoiding these mortality impacts. Assuming the 2015 population size, warming of 1-6°C could result in an annual increase of 283-1,660 additional suicide cases, corresponding to a PAF of 0.7%-4.1%. The annual economic value of avoiding these impacts is $2 billion-$3 billion (2015 U.S. dollars, 3% discount rate, and 2015 income level). Estimates based on linear temperature-suicide relationship specifications are 7% larger than those based on binned temperature specifications. Accounting for displacement decreases estimates by 17%, while accounting for precipitation decreases estimates by 7%. Population growth between 2015 and the future warming degree arrival year increases estimates by 15%-38%. Further research is needed to quantify and monetize other climate-related mental health outcomes (e.g., anxiety and depression) and to characterize these risks in socially vulnerable populations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Caitlin A Gould
- Climate Change Division U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington DC USA
| | | | | | | | - Nick Obradovich
- Center for Humans and Machines Max Planck Institute for Human Development Berlin Germany
| | - Jeremy Martinich
- Climate Change Division U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington DC USA
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Nolte CG, Spero TL, Bowden JH, Sarofim MC, Martinich J, Mallard MS. Regional temperature-ozone relationships across the U.S. under multiple climate and emissions scenarios. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2021; 71:1251-1264. [PMID: 34406104 PMCID: PMC8562346 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2021.1970048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2021] [Revised: 07/19/2021] [Accepted: 08/02/2021] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
The potential effects of 21st century climate change on ozone (O3) concentrations in the United States are investigated using global climate simulations to drive higher-resolution regional meteorological and chemical transport models. Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Coupled Model version 3 (CM3) simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, and the resulting meteorological fields are used to drive the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. Air quality is modeled for five 11-year periods using both a 2011 air pollutant emission inventory and a future projection accounting for full implementation of promulgated regulatory controls. Across the U.S., CESM projects daily maximum temperatures during summer to increase 1-4°C by 2050 and 2-7°C by 2095, while CM3 projects warming of 2-7°C by 2050 and 4-11°C by 2095. The meteorological changes have geographically varying impacts on O3 concentrations. Using the 2011 emissions dataset, O3 increases 1-5 ppb in the central Great Plains and Midwest by 2050 and more than 10 ppb by 2095, but it remains unchanged or even decreases in the Gulf Coast, Maine, and parts of the Southwest. Using the projected emissions, modeled increases are attenuated while decreases are amplified, indicating that planned air pollution control measures ameliorate the ozone climate penalty. The relationships between changes in maximum temperature and changes in O3 concentrations are examined spatially and quantified to explore the potential for developing an efficient approach for estimating air quality impacts of other future climate scenarios.Implications: The effects of climate change on ozone air quality in the United States are investigated using two global climate model simulations of a high warming scenario for five decadal periods in the 21st century. Warming summer temperatures simulated under both models lead to higher ozone concentrations in some regions, with the magnitude of the change increasing with temperature over the century. The magnitude and spatial extent of the increases are attenuated under a future emissions projection that accounts for regulatory controls. Regional linear regression relationships are developed as a first step toward development of a reduced form model for efficient estimation of the health impacts attributable to changes in air quality resulting from a climate change scenario.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher G. Nolte
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC USA
| | - Tanya L. Spero
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC USA
| | - Jared H. Bowden
- Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC USA
| | - Marcus C. Sarofim
- Office of Atmospheric Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC USA
| | - Jeremy Martinich
- Office of Atmospheric Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC USA
| | - Megan S. Mallard
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC USA
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