Northwest passages: conservation genetics of Arctic Island wolves

Demographic history shapes North American gray wolf genomic diversity and informs species' conservation

Effective population size estimates are critical information needed for evolutionary predictions and conservation decisions. This is particularly true for species with social factors that restrict access to breeding or experience repeated fluctuations in population size across generations. We investigated the genomic estimates of effective population size along with diversity, subdivision, and inbreeding from 162,109 minimally filtered and 81,595 statistically neutral and unlinked SNPs genotyped in 437 grey wolf samples from North America collected between 1986 and 2021. We found genetic structure across North America, represented by three distinct demographic histories of western, central, and eastern regions of the continent. Further, grey wolves in the northern Rocky Mountains have lower genomic diversity than wolves of the western Great Lakes and have declined over time. Effective population size estimates revealed the historical signatures of continental efforts of predator extermination, despite a quarter century of recovery efforts. We are the first to provide molecular estimates of effective population size across distinct grey wolf populations in North America, which ranged between Ne  ~ 275 and 3050 since early 1980s. We provide data that inform managers regarding the status and importance of effective population size estimates for grey wolf conservation, which are on average 5.2-9.3% of census estimates for this species. We show that while grey wolves fall above minimum effective population sizes needed to avoid extinction due to inbreeding depression in the short term, they are below sizes predicted to be necessary to avoid long-term risk of extinction.

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) in the Arctic: Revisiting distribution and identifying research and conservation priorities amid rapid environmental change

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) occupy most of the globe’s Arctic tundra. Given the rapidly warming climate and expanding human activity in this biome, understanding wolverine ecology, and therefore the species’ vulnerability to such changes, is increasingly important for developing research priorities and effective management strategies. Here, we review and synthesize knowledge of wolverines in the Arctic using both Western science sources and available Indigenous Knowledge (IK) to improve our understanding of wolverine ecology in the Arctic and better predict the species’ susceptibility to change. To accomplish this, we update the pan-Arctic distribution map of wolverines to account for recent observations and then discuss resulting inference and uncertainties. We use these patterns to contextualize and discuss potential underlying drivers of distribution and population dynamics, drawing upon knowledge of food habits, habitat associations, and harvest, as well as studies of wolverine ecology elsewhere. We then identify four broad areas to prioritize conservation and research efforts: (1) Monitoring trends in population abundance, demographics, and distribution and the drivers thereof, (2) Evaluating and predicting wolverines’ responses to ongoing climate change, particularly the consequences of reduced snow and sea ice, and shifts in prey availability, (3) Understanding wolverines’ response to human development, including the possible impact of wintertime over-snow travel and seismic testing to reproductive denning, as well as vulnerability to hunting and trapping associated with increased human access, and (4) Ensuring that current and future harvest are sustainable.

A sliver of the past: The decimation of the genetic diversity of the Mexican wolf

The endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi) is known to carry exceedingly low levels of genetic diversity. This could be (i) the result of long-term evolutionary patterns as they exist at the southernmost limit of the species distribution at a relatively reduced effective size, or (ii) due to rapid population decline caused by human persecution over the last century. If the former, purifying selection is expected to have minimized the impact of inbreeding. If the latter, rapid and recent declines in genetic diversity may have resulted in severe fitness consequences. To differentiate these hypotheses, we conducted comparative whole-genome analyses of five historical Mexican wolves (1907-1917) and 18 contemporary Mexican and grey wolves from North America and Eurasia. Based on whole-genome data, historical and modern Mexican wolves together form a discrete unit. Moreover, we found that modern Mexican wolves have reduced genetic diversity and increased inbreeding relative to the historical population, which was widespread across the southwestern United States and not restricted to Mexico as previously assumed. Finally, although Mexican wolves have evolved in sympatry with coyotes (C. latrans), we observed lower introgression between historical Mexican wolves and coyotes than with modern Mexican wolves, despite similarities in body size. Taken together, our data show that recent population declines probably caused the reduced level of genetic diversity, but not the observed differentiation of the Mexican wolves from other North American wolves.

Conservation concerns associated with low genetic diversity for K'gari-Fraser Island dingoes

The dingo population on world heritage-listed K'gari-Fraser Island (K'gari) is amongst the most well-known in Australia. However, an absence of population genetic data limits capacity for informed conservation management. We used 9 microsatellite loci to compare the levels of genetic diversity and genetic structure of 175 K'gari dingo tissue samples with 264 samples from adjacent mainland regions. Our results demonstrated that the K'gari population has significantly lower genetic diversity than mainland dingoes (A_R, H_E, P_AR; p < 0.05) with a fourfold reduction in effective population size (N_e = 25.7 vs 103.8). There is also strong evidence of genetic differentiation between the island and mainland populations. These results are in accordance with genetic theory for small, isolated, island populations, and most likely the result of low initial diversity and founder effects such as bottlenecks leading to decreased diversity and drift. As the first study to incorporate a large sample set of K'gari dingoes, this provides invaluable baseline data for future research, which should incorporate genetic and demographic monitoring to ensure long-term persistence. Given that human-associated activities will continue to result in dingo mortality, it is critical that genetic factors are considered in conservation management decisions to avoid deleterious consequences for this iconic dingo population.

Genomic signatures of extensive inbreeding in Isle Royale wolves, a population on the threshold of extinction

The observation that small isolated populations often suffer reduced fitness from inbreeding depression has guided conservation theory and practice for decades. However, investigating the genome-wide dynamics associated with inbreeding depression in natural populations is only now feasible with relatively inexpensive sequencing technology and annotated reference genomes. To characterize the genome-wide effects of intense inbreeding and isolation, we performed whole-genome sequencing and morphological analysis of an iconic inbred population, the gray wolves (Canis lupus) of Isle Royale. Through population genetic simulations and comparison with wolf genomes from a variety of demographic histories, we find evidence that severe inbreeding depression in this population is due to increased homozygosity of strongly deleterious recessive mutations. Our results have particular relevance in light of the recent translocation of wolves from the mainland to Isle Royale, as well as broader implications for management of genetic variation in the fragmented landscape of the modern world.

Prioritization of landscape connectivity for the conservation of Peary caribou

Adequate connectivity between discontinuous habitat patches is crucial for the persistence of metapopulations across space and time. Loss of landscape connectivity is often a direct result of fragmentation caused by human activities but also can be caused indirectly through anthropogenic climate change. Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) are widely dispersed across the islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and rely on sea ice to move seasonally between island habitats throughout their range. Seasonal connectivity provided by sea ice is necessary to maintain genetic diversity and to facilitate dispersal and recolonization of areas from which caribou have been extirpated. We used least-cost path analysis and circuit theory to model connectivity across Peary caribou range, and future climate projections to investigate how this connectivity might be affected by a warming climate. Further, we used measures of current flow centrality to estimate the role of High Arctic islands in maintaining connectivity between Peary caribou populations and to identify and prioritize those islands and linkages most important for conservation. Our results suggest that the Bathurst Island complex plays a critical role in facilitating connectivity between Peary caribou populations. Large islands, including Banks, Victoria, and Ellesmere have limited roles in connecting Peary caribou. Without rigorous greenhouse gas emission reductions our projections indicate that by 2100 all connectivity between the more southern Peary caribou populations will be lost for important spring and early-winter movement periods. Continued connectivity across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and possibly Peary caribou persistence, ultimately hinges on global commitments to limit climate change. Our research highlights priority areas where, in addition to emission reductions, conservation efforts to maintain connectivity would be most effective.

Population genomics of grey wolves and wolf-like canids in North America

North America is currently home to a number of grey wolf (Canis lupus) and wolf-like canid populations, including the coyote (Canis latrans) and the taxonomically controversial red, Eastern timber and Great Lakes wolves. We explored their population structure and regional gene flow using a dataset of 40 full genome sequences that represent the extant diversity of North American wolves and wolf-like canid populations. This included 15 new genomes (13 North American grey wolves, 1 red wolf and 1 Eastern timber/Great Lakes wolf), ranging from 0.4 to 15x coverage. In addition to providing full genome support for the previously proposed coyote-wolf admixture origin for the taxonomically controversial red, Eastern timber and Great Lakes wolves, the discriminatory power offered by our dataset suggests all North American grey wolves, including the Mexican form, are monophyletic, and thus share a common ancestor to the exclusion of all other wolves. Furthermore, we identify three distinct populations in the high arctic, one being a previously unidentified "Polar wolf" population endemic to Ellesmere Island and Greenland. Genetic diversity analyses reveal particularly high inbreeding and low heterozygosity in these Polar wolves, consistent with long-term isolation from the other North American wolves.

Exploring the diet of arctic wolves (Canis lupus arctos) at their northern range limit

The grey wolf (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) is one of the most widespread large carnivores on Earth, and occurs throughout the Arctic. Although wolf diet is well studied, we have scant information from high Arctic areas. Global warming is expected to increase the importance of predation for ecosystem regulation in Arctic environments. To improve our ability to manage Arctic ecosystems under environmental change, we therefore need knowledge about Arctic predator diets. Prey remains in 54 wolf scats collected at three sites in the high Arctic region surrounding the Hall Basin (Judge Daly Promontory, Ellesmere Island, Canada, and Washington Land and Hall Land, both in northwestern Greenland) pointed to a dietary importance of arctic hare (Lepus arcticus Ross, 1819; 55% frequency of occurrence) and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus (Zimmermann, 1780); 39% frequency of occurrence), although we observed diet variation among the sites. A literature compilation suggested that arctic wolves (Canis lupus arctos Pocock, 1935) preferentially feed on caribou (Rangifer tarandus (Linnaeus, 1758)) and muskoxen, but can sustain themselves on arctic hares and Greenland collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus (Traill, 1823)) in areas with limited or no ungulate populations. We suggest that climate change may alter the dynamics among wolves, arctic hare, muskoxen, and caribou, and we encourage further studies evaluating how climate change influences predator–prey interactions in high Arctic environments.

Loss of connectivity among island-dwelling Peary caribou following sea ice decline

Global warming threatens to reduce population connectivity for terrestrial wildlife through significant and rapid changes to sea ice. Using genetic fingerprinting, we contrasted extant connectivity in island-dwelling Peary caribou in northern Canada with continental-migratory caribou. We next examined if sea-ice contractions in the last decades modulated population connectivity and explored the possible impact of future climate change on long-term connectivity among island caribou. We found a strong correlation between genetic and geodesic distances for both continental and Peary caribou, even after accounting for the possible effect of sea surface. Sea ice has thus been an effective corridor for Peary caribou, promoting inter-island connectivity and population mixing. Using a time series of remote sensing sea-ice data, we show that landscape resistance in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has increased by approximately 15% since 1979 and may further increase by 20-77% by 2086 under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). Under the persistent increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, reduced connectivity may isolate island-dwelling caribou with potentially significant consequences for population viability.

Population genetic structure of gray wolves (Canis lupus) in a marine archipelago suggests island-mainland differentiation consistent with dietary niche

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence suggests that ecological heterogeneity across space can influence the genetic structure of populations, including that of long-distance dispersers such as large carnivores. On the central coast of British Columbia, Canada, wolf (Canis lupus L., 1758) dietary niche and parasite prevalence data indicate strong ecological divergence between marine-oriented wolves inhabiting islands and individuals on the coastal mainland that interact primarily with terrestrial prey. Local holders of traditional ecological knowledge, who distinguish between mainland and island wolf forms, also informed our hypothesis that genetic differentiation might occur between wolves from these adjacent environments.

RESULTS

We used microsatellite genetic markers to examine data obtained from wolf faecal samples. Our results from 116 individuals suggest the presence of a genetic cline between mainland and island wolves. This pattern occurs despite field observations that individuals easily traverse the 30 km wide study area and swim up to 13 km among landmasses in the region.

CONCLUSIONS

Natal habitat-biased dispersal (i.e., the preference for dispersal into familiar ecological environments) might contribute to genetic differentiation. Accordingly, this working hypothesis presents an exciting avenue for future research where marine resources or other components of ecological heterogeneity are present.

An Account of the Taxonomy of North American Wolves From Morphological and Genetic Analyses

The available scientific literature was reviewed to assess the taxonomic standing of North American wolves, including subspecies of the gray wolf, Canis lupus. The recent scientific proposal that the eastern wolf, C. l. lycaon, is not a subspecies of gray wolf, but a full species, Canis lycaon, is well-supported by both morphological and genetic data. This species' range extends westward to Minnesota, and it hybridizes with gray wolves where the two species are in contact in eastern Canada and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Genetic data support a close relationship between eastern wolf and red wolf Canis rufus, but do not support the proposal that they are the same species; it is more likely that they evolved independently from different lineages of a common ancestor with coyotes. The genetic distinctiveness of the Mexican wolf Canis lupus baileyi supports its recognition as a subspecies. The available genetic and morphometric data do not provide clear support for the recognition of the Arctic wolf Canis lupus arctos, but the available genetic data are almost entirely limited to one group of genetic markers (microsatellite DNA) and are not definitive on this question. Recognition of the northern timber wolf Canis lupus occidentalis and the plains wolf Canis lupus nubilus as subspecies is supported by morphological data and extensive studies of microsatellite DNA variation where both subspecies are in contact in Canada. The wolves of coastal areas in southeastern Alaska and British Columbia should be assigned to C. lupus nubilus. There is scientific support for the taxa recognized here, but delineation of exact geographic boundaries presents challenges. Rather than sharp boundaries between taxa, boundaries should generally be thought of as intergrade zones of variable width.

Loss of MHC and neutral variation in Peary caribou: genetic drift is not mitigated by balancing selection or exacerbated by MHC allele distributions

Theory and empirical results suggest that the rate of loss of variation at Mhc and neutral microsatellite loci may differ because selection influences Mhc genes, and because a high proportion of rare alleles at Mhc loci may result in high rates of loss via drift. Most published studies compare Mhc and microsatellite variation in various contemporary populations to infer the effects of population size on genetic variation, even though different populations are likely to have different demographic histories that may also affect contemporary genetic variation. We directly compared loss of variation at Mhc and microsatellite loci in Peary caribou by comparing historical and contemporary samples. We observed that similar proportions of genetic variation were lost over time at each type of marker despite strong evidence for selection at Mhc genes. These results suggest that microsatellites can be used to estimate genome-wide levels of variation, but also that adaptive potential is likely to be lost following population bottlenecks. However, gene conversion and recombination at Mhc loci may act to increase variation following bottlenecks.

A novel assessment of population structure and gene flow in grey wolf populations of the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States

The successful re-introduction of grey wolves to the western United States is an impressive accomplishment for conservation science. However, the degree to which subpopulations are genetically structured and connected, along with the preservation of genetic variation, is an important concern for the continued viability of the metapopulation. We analysed DNA samples from 555 Northern Rocky Mountain wolves from the three recovery areas (Greater Yellowstone Area, Montana, and Idaho), including all 66 re-introduced founders, for variation in 26 microsatellite loci over the initial 10-year recovery period (1995-2004). The population maintained high levels of variation (H(O) = 0.64-0.72; allelic diversity k=7.0-10.3) with low levels of inbreeding (F(IS) < 0.03) and throughout this period, the population expanded rapidly (n(1995) =101; n(2004) =846). Individual-based Bayesian analyses revealed significant population genetic structure and identified three subpopulations coinciding with designated recovery areas. Population assignment and migrant detection were difficult because of the presence of related founders among different recovery areas and required a novel approach to determine genetically effective migration and admixture. However, by combining assignment tests, private alleles, sibship reconstruction, and field observations, we detected genetically effective dispersal among the three recovery areas. Successful conservation of Northern Rocky Mountain wolves will rely on management decisions that promote natural dispersal dynamics and minimize anthropogenic factors that reduce genetic connectivity.