1
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Lenton TM, Abrams JF, Bartsch A, Bathiany S, Boulton CA, Buxton JE, Conversi A, Cunliffe AM, Hebden S, Lavergne T, Poulter B, Shepherd A, Smith T, Swingedouw D, Winkelmann R, Boers N. Publisher Correction: Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Nat Commun 2024; 15:1917. [PMID: 38429286 PMCID: PMC10907352 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45881-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/03/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Jesse F Abrams
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Annett Bartsch
- b.geos GmbH, Industriestrasse 1A, 2100, Korneuburg, Austria
- Austrian Polar Research Institute, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | | | - Alessandra Conversi
- National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR-Lerici, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc. Pozzuolo, 19032, Lerici (SP), Italy
| | | | - Sophie Hebden
- Future Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- European Space Agency, ECSAT, Harwell, Oxfordshire, UK
| | | | | | - Andrew Shepherd
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
| | - Taylor Smith
- Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600, Pessac, France
| | | | - Niklas Boers
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
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2
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Lenton TM, Abrams JF, Bartsch A, Bathiany S, Boulton CA, Buxton JE, Conversi A, Cunliffe AM, Hebden S, Lavergne T, Poulter B, Shepherd A, Smith T, Swingedouw D, Winkelmann R, Boers N. Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Nat Commun 2024; 15:343. [PMID: 38184618 PMCID: PMC10771461 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jesse F Abrams
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Annett Bartsch
- b.geos GmbH, Industriestrasse 1A, 2100, Korneuburg, Austria
- Austrian Polar Research Institute, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | | | - Alessandra Conversi
- National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR-Lerici, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc. Pozzuolo, 19032, Lerici (SP), Italy
| | | | - Sophie Hebden
- Future Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- European Space Agency, ECSAT, Harwell, Oxfordshire, UK
| | | | | | - Andrew Shepherd
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
| | - Taylor Smith
- Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600, Pessac, France
| | | | - Niklas Boers
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
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3
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Sgubin G, Swingedouw D, Mignot J, Gambetta GA, Bois B, Loukos H, Noël T, Pieri P, García de Cortázar‐Atauri I, Ollat N, van Leeuwen C. Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:808-826. [PMID: 36376998 PMCID: PMC10100336 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2022] [Revised: 09/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/30/2022] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Sgubin
- Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC)—Université de BordeauxPessacFrance
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC)—Université de BordeauxPessacFrance
| | - Juliette Mignot
- LOCEAN LaboratoryInstitut Pierre Simon, Sorbonne Universités (SU/CNRS/IRD/MNHN)ParisFrance
| | | | - Benjamin Bois
- Centre de Recherches de ClimatologieUMR 6282 CNRS/UB Biogéosciences, Univ. Bourgogne‐Franche‐ComtéDijonFrance
| | | | | | - Philippe Pieri
- EGFV, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, INRAE, ISVV, Univ. BordeauxVillenave d'OrnonFrance
| | | | - Nathalie Ollat
- EGFV, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, INRAE, ISVV, Univ. BordeauxVillenave d'OrnonFrance
| | - Cornelis van Leeuwen
- EGFV, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, INRAE, ISVV, Univ. BordeauxVillenave d'OrnonFrance
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4
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Michel SLL, Swingedouw D, Ortega P, Gastineau G, Mignot J, McCarthy G, Khodri M. Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. Nat Commun 2022; 13:5176. [PMID: 36056010 PMCID: PMC9440003 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2021] [Accepted: 08/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently—a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point. This study presents a last millennium reconstruction of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability fluctuations. This sufficiently long and validated reconstruction suggests the potential approach of a tipping point in the North Atlantic current system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon L L Michel
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands. .,Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, Pessac, 33615, France.
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, Pessac, 33615, France
| | - Pablo Ortega
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Edificio NEXUS I, Campus Nord UPC, Grand Capitán, 2-4, 08034, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Guillaume Gastineau
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat (LOCEAN), Sorbonne université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, 4 place Jussieu, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Juliette Mignot
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat (LOCEAN), Sorbonne université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, 4 place Jussieu, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Gerard McCarthy
- Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland
| | - Myriam Khodri
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat (LOCEAN), Sorbonne université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, 4 place Jussieu, 75005, Paris, France
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5
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Bonnet R, Swingedouw D, Gastineau G, Boucher O, Deshayes J, Hourdin F, Mignot J, Servonnat J, Sima A. Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening. Nat Commun 2021; 12:6108. [PMID: 34671020 PMCID: PMC8528826 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 09/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Some of the new generation CMIP6 models are characterised by a strong temperature increase in response to increasing greenhouse gases concentration1. At first glance, these models seem less consistent with the temperature warming observed over the last decades. Here, we investigate this issue through the prism of low-frequency internal variability by comparing with observations an ensemble of 32 historical simulations performed with the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, characterized by a rather large climate sensitivity. We show that members with the smallest rates of global warming over the past 6-7 decades are also those with a large internally-driven weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This subset of members also matches several AMOC observational fingerprints, which are in line with such a weakening. This suggests that internal variability from the Atlantic Ocean may have dampened the magnitude of global warming over the historical era. Taking into account this AMOC weakening over the past decades means that it will be harder to avoid crossing the 2 °C warming threshold. New climate models show a stronger warming with greenhouse gas emissions than is suggested by observations. Here, the authors argue that internal variability of the Atlantic Ocean may have dampened some of the recent warming, which could explain part of the disagreement between the newer models and observations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rémy Bonnet
- Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France.
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux, Université de Bordeaux/CNRS, Bordeaux, France
| | - Guillaume Gastineau
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - Olivier Boucher
- Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Julie Deshayes
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - Frédéric Hourdin
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/Ecole Normale Supérieure/Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
| | - Juliette Mignot
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
| | - Jérôme Servonnat
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Adriana Sima
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/Ecole Normale Supérieure/Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
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6
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Swingedouw D, Bily A, Esquerdo C, Borchert LF, Sgubin G, Mignot J, Menary M. On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2021; 1504:187-201. [PMID: 34212391 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14659] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2021] [Revised: 06/07/2021] [Accepted: 06/14/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
CMIP5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Here, we analyze the CMIP6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. Four models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities. The climatic impacts of these events are large on decadal timescales, with a substantial effect on surface temperature over Europe, precipitation pattern in the tropics-most notably the Sahel and Amazon regions-and a possible impact on the mean atmospheric circulation. The mechanisms leading to these events are related to the collapse of deep convection in the subpolar gyre, modifying profoundly the oceanic circulation. Analysis of stratification in the subpolar gyre as compared with observations highlights that the biases of the models explain relatively well the spread in their projections of surface temperature trends: models showing the smallest stratification biases over the recent period also show the weakest warming trends. The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of up to 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Didier Swingedouw
- Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, EPOC-OASU Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
| | - Adrien Bily
- Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, EPOC-OASU Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
| | - Claire Esquerdo
- Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, EPOC-OASU Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
| | | | - Giovanni Sgubin
- Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, EPOC-OASU Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
| | - Juliette Mignot
- LOCEAN/IPSL (Sorbonne universités, SU-CNRS-IRD-MNHN), Paris, France
| | - Matthew Menary
- LMD/IPSL (Sorbonne universités, SU-CNRS-ENS-Ecole Polytechnique), Paris, France
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7
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Smith DM, Scaife AA, Eade R, Athanasiadis P, Bellucci A, Bethke I, Bilbao R, Borchert LF, Caron LP, Counillon F, Danabasoglu G, Delworth T, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Dunstone NJ, Estella-Perez V, Flavoni S, Hermanson L, Keenlyside N, Kharin V, Kimoto M, Merryfield WJ, Mignot J, Mochizuki T, Modali K, Monerie PA, Müller WA, Nicolí D, Ortega P, Pankatz K, Pohlmann H, Robson J, Ruggieri P, Sospedra-Alfonso R, Swingedouw D, Wang Y, Wild S, Yeager S, Yang X, Zhang L. North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature 2020; 583:796-800. [PMID: 32728237 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2019] [Accepted: 05/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1-3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain4. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades5,6. The chaotic nature of the climate system7-9 may also mean that signal uncertainties are largely irreducible. However, climate projections are difficult to verify until further observations become available. Here we assess retrospective climate model predictions of the past six decades and show that decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs. Crucially, current models underestimate the predictable signal (the predictable fraction of the total variability) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation) by an order of magnitude. Consequently, compared to perfect models, 100 times as many ensemble members are needed in current models to extract this signal, and its effects on the climate are underestimated relative to other factors. To address these limitations, we implement a two-stage post-processing technique. We first adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of the predictable signal. We then select and use only the ensemble members with a North Atlantic Oscillation sufficiently close to the variance-adjusted ensemble-mean forecast North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach greatly improves decadal predictions of winter climate for Europe and eastern North America. Predictions of Atlantic multidecadal variability are also improved, suggesting that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not driven solely by Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results highlight the need to understand why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models10, and the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections on timescales beyond a decade.
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Affiliation(s)
- D M Smith
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
| | - A A Scaife
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.,College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
| | - R Eade
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
| | - P Athanasiadis
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
| | - A Bellucci
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
| | - I Bethke
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - R Bilbao
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
| | - L F Borchert
- Sorbonne Universités, LOCEAN Laboratory, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
| | - L-P Caron
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
| | - F Counillon
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway.,Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - G Danabasoglu
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - T Delworth
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - F J Doblas-Reyes
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain.,Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - V Estella-Perez
- Sorbonne Universités, LOCEAN Laboratory, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
| | - S Flavoni
- Sorbonne Universités, LOCEAN Laboratory, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
| | | | - N Keenlyside
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway.,Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - V Kharin
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - M Kimoto
- Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
| | - W J Merryfield
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - J Mignot
- Sorbonne Universités, LOCEAN Laboratory, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
| | - T Mochizuki
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.,Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
| | - K Modali
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany.,Regional Computing Center, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - P-A Monerie
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - W A Müller
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
| | - D Nicolí
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
| | - P Ortega
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
| | - K Pankatz
- Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany
| | - H Pohlmann
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany.,Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany
| | - J Robson
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - P Ruggieri
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
| | - R Sospedra-Alfonso
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - D Swingedouw
- CNRS-EPOC, Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
| | - Y Wang
- Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - S Wild
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
| | - S Yeager
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - X Yang
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - L Zhang
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
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8
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Jenkins DA, Lecomte N, Schaefer JA, Olsen SM, Swingedouw D, Côté SD, Pellissier L, Yannic G. Loss of connectivity among island-dwelling Peary caribou following sea ice decline. Biol Lett 2017; 12:rsbl.2016.0235. [PMID: 27651531 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2016.0235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2016] [Accepted: 08/25/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Global warming threatens to reduce population connectivity for terrestrial wildlife through significant and rapid changes to sea ice. Using genetic fingerprinting, we contrasted extant connectivity in island-dwelling Peary caribou in northern Canada with continental-migratory caribou. We next examined if sea-ice contractions in the last decades modulated population connectivity and explored the possible impact of future climate change on long-term connectivity among island caribou. We found a strong correlation between genetic and geodesic distances for both continental and Peary caribou, even after accounting for the possible effect of sea surface. Sea ice has thus been an effective corridor for Peary caribou, promoting inter-island connectivity and population mixing. Using a time series of remote sensing sea-ice data, we show that landscape resistance in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has increased by approximately 15% since 1979 and may further increase by 20-77% by 2086 under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). Under the persistent increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, reduced connectivity may isolate island-dwelling caribou with potentially significant consequences for population viability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deborah A Jenkins
- Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada K9 L 0G2 Canada Research Chair in Polar and Boreal Ecology and Centre d'Études Nordiques, Department of Biology, University of Moncton, Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada E1A 3E9
| | - Nicolas Lecomte
- Canada Research Chair in Polar and Boreal Ecology and Centre d'Études Nordiques, Department of Biology, University of Moncton, Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada E1A 3E9
| | - James A Schaefer
- Department of Biology, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada K9 L 0G2
| | - Steffen M Olsen
- Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC-OASU-Université de Bordeaux, Allée Georoy St Hilaire, 33615 Pessac, France
| | - Steeve D Côté
- Département de Biologie and Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, Québec, Canada G1V0A6
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Landscape Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Glenn Yannic
- LECA - Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine - UMR CNRS 5553, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, 73376 Le Bourget-du-Lac, France
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9
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Cruz P, Winkel T, Ledru MP, Bernard C, Egan N, Swingedouw D, Joffre R. Rain-fed agriculture thrived despite climate degradation in the pre-Hispanic arid Andes. Sci Adv 2017; 3:e1701740. [PMID: 29279865 PMCID: PMC5738230 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1701740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2017] [Accepted: 11/22/2017] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Archaeological research suggests significant human occupation in the arid Andean highlands during the 13th to 15th centuries, whereas paleoclimatic studies reveal prolonged drier and colder conditions during that period. Which subsistence strategy supported local societies in this harsh environment? Our field and aerial surveys of archaeological dwelling sites, granaries, and croplands provide the first evidence of extended pre-Hispanic agriculture supporting dense human populations in the arid Andes of Bolivia. This unique agricultural system associated with quinoa cultivation was unirrigated, consisting of simple yet extensive landscape modifications. It relied on highly specific environmental knowledge and a set of water-saving practices, including microterracing and biennial fallowing. This intense agricultural activity developed during a period of unfavorable climatic change on a regional and global scale, illustrative of efficient adaptive strategies to cope with this climatic change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Cruz
- UE CISOR (Unidad Ejecutora en Ciencias Sociales Regionales y Humanidades), CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas), Universidad Nacional de Jujuy, San Salvador de Jujuy, Argentina
| | - Thierry Winkel
- CEFE (Centre d’Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive), IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, UPVM3 (Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier III), EPHE (École Pratique des Hautes Études), Montpellier, France
- Corresponding author.
| | - Marie-Pierre Ledru
- ISEM (Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution de Montpellier), IRD, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, CIRAD (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement), INRAP (Institut National de Recherches Archéologiques Préventives), Montpellier, France
| | - Cyril Bernard
- CEFE, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, UPVM3, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Nancy Egan
- IIT (Instituto Interdisciplinario Tilcara), Universidad de Buenos Aires, Tilcara, Argentina
- History Department, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- EPOC (Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux), CNRS, Université de Bordeaux, EPHE, Bordeaux, France
| | - Richard Joffre
- CEFE, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, UPVM3, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
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10
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Defrance D, Ramstein G, Charbit S, Vrac M, Famien AM, Sultan B, Swingedouw D, Dumas C, Gemenne F, Alvarez-Solas J, Vanderlinden JP. Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:6533-6538. [PMID: 28584113 PMCID: PMC5488922 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1619358114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agroecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dimitri Defrance
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS - Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, 91141 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France;
- Université Pierre et Marie Curie - CNRS - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 75005 Paris, France
| | - Gilles Ramstein
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS - Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, 91141 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
| | - Sylvie Charbit
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS - Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, 91141 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
| | - Mathieu Vrac
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS - Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, 91141 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
| | - Adjoua Moïse Famien
- Université Pierre et Marie Curie - CNRS - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 75005 Paris, France
- Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère, Université Félix Houphouet Boigny, 22 BP 582 Abidjan, Côte-d'Ivoire
| | - Benjamin Sultan
- Université Pierre et Marie Curie - CNRS - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 75005 Paris, France
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux, CNRS, Université de Bordeaux, 33615 Pessac, France
| | - Christophe Dumas
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS - Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, 91141 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
| | - François Gemenne
- Cultures Environnements Arctique Représentations Climat, Observatoire de Saint-Quentin-En-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, 78280 Guyancourt, France
- The Hugo Observatory, Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
| | | | - Jean-Paul Vanderlinden
- Cultures Environnements Arctique Représentations Climat, Observatoire de Saint-Quentin-En-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, 78280 Guyancourt, France
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11
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Sgubin G, Swingedouw D, Drijfhout S, Mary Y, Bennabi A. Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models. Nat Commun 2017; 8:ncomms14375. [PMID: 28198383 PMCID: PMC5330854 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2016] [Accepted: 12/21/2016] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models’ varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. Concerns on climate change include the risk of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, the authors analyse CMIP5 projections and show that a convection collapse in the subpolar gyre can cool this region by up to 3°C in 10 years, which is as likely to occur by 2100 as a continuous warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Sgubin
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.,Environnements et Paleoenvironnements Oceaniques et Continenteaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, Université de Bordeaux, 33615 Pessac, France
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- Environnements et Paleoenvironnements Oceaniques et Continenteaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, Université de Bordeaux, 33615 Pessac, France
| | - Sybren Drijfhout
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3730AE De Bilt, The Netherlands.,National Oceanography Centre (NOC), University of Southampton, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
| | - Yannick Mary
- Environnements et Paleoenvironnements Oceaniques et Continenteaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, Université de Bordeaux, 33615 Pessac, France
| | - Amine Bennabi
- Institut de Mecanique et d'Ingenierie (I2M), Université de Bordeaux, 33615 Pessac, France
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12
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Jomelli V, Lane T, Favier V, Masson-Delmotte V, Swingedouw D, Rinterknecht V, Schimmelpfennig I, Brunstein D, Verfaillie D, Adamson K, Leanni L, Mokadem F. Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic. Sci Rep 2016; 6:32984. [PMID: 27609585 PMCID: PMC5016737 DOI: 10.1038/srep32984] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2016] [Accepted: 08/17/2016] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on 36Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbræen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbræen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in ~1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vincent Jomelli
- Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, CNRS Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, 92195 Meudon, France
| | - Timothy Lane
- Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, CNRS Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, 92195 Meudon, France.,School of Natural Sciences and Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool L3 3AF, UK
| | - Vincent Favier
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, CNRS, France.,LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France
| | - Valerie Masson-Delmotte
- LSCE/IPSL, UMR 8212 (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris Saclay, CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- EPOC, Universite Bordeaux 1, Allée Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, Pessac 33615, France
| | - Vincent Rinterknecht
- Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, CNRS Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, 92195 Meudon, France
| | - Irene Schimmelpfennig
- Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE CNRS-IRD UMR 34, Collège de France, 13545 Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Daniel Brunstein
- Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, CNRS Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, 92195 Meudon, France
| | | | - Kathryn Adamson
- School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester M1 5GD, UK
| | - Laëtitia Leanni
- Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE CNRS-IRD UMR 34, Collège de France, 13545 Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Fatima Mokadem
- Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, CNRS Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, 92195 Meudon, France
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13
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Ortega P, Lehner F, Swingedouw D, Masson-Delmotte V, Raible CC, Casado M, Yiou P. A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium. Nature 2015; 523:71-4. [DOI: 10.1038/nature14518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 214] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2014] [Accepted: 04/29/2015] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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14
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Descombes P, Wisz MS, Leprieur F, Parravicini V, Heine C, Olsen SM, Swingedouw D, Kulbicki M, Mouillot D, Pellissier L. Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:2479-2487. [PMID: 25611594 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2014] [Revised: 01/04/2015] [Accepted: 01/06/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrice Descombes
- Unit of Ecology & Evolution, University of Fribourg, Ch. du Musée 10, CH-1700, Fribourg, Switzerland
| | - Mary S Wisz
- Department of Ecology and Environment, DHI-Group, Hørsholm, Denmark
| | - Fabien Leprieur
- Laboratoire Ecologie des Systèmes Marins Côtiers UMR 5119, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, UM2, UM1, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, FR-34095, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - Valerianio Parravicini
- CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, LABEX 'CORAIL', University of Perpignan, 66860, Perpignan, France
- CESAB-FRB, Immeuble Henri Poincaré, Domaine du Petit Arbois, FR-13857, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 3, France
| | - Christian Heine
- EarthByte Group, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Shell International Exploration & Production, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Steffen M Olsen
- Center for Ocean and Ice Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- EPOC, CNRS, Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy St Hilaire, 33615, Pessac cedex, France
| | - Michel Kulbicki
- Laboratoire Arago, UR "CoReUs", Institut pour la Recherche en Développement, Labex Corail, B.P. 44, 66651, Banyuls/mer, France
| | - David Mouillot
- Laboratoire Ecologie des Systèmes Marins Côtiers UMR 5119, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, UM2, UM1, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, FR-34095, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld, 4811, Australia
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Unit of Ecology & Evolution, University of Fribourg, Ch. du Musée 10, CH-1700, Fribourg, Switzerland
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