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Lenton TM, Abrams JF, Bartsch A, Bathiany S, Boulton CA, Buxton JE, Conversi A, Cunliffe AM, Hebden S, Lavergne T, Poulter B, Shepherd A, Smith T, Swingedouw D, Winkelmann R, Boers N. Publisher Correction: Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Nat Commun 2024; 15:1917. [PMID: 38429286 PMCID: PMC10907352 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45881-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/03/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Jesse F Abrams
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Annett Bartsch
- b.geos GmbH, Industriestrasse 1A, 2100, Korneuburg, Austria
- Austrian Polar Research Institute, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | | | - Alessandra Conversi
- National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR-Lerici, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc. Pozzuolo, 19032, Lerici (SP), Italy
| | | | - Sophie Hebden
- Future Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- European Space Agency, ECSAT, Harwell, Oxfordshire, UK
| | | | | | - Andrew Shepherd
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
| | - Taylor Smith
- Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600, Pessac, France
| | | | - Niklas Boers
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
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2
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Lenton TM, Abrams JF, Bartsch A, Bathiany S, Boulton CA, Buxton JE, Conversi A, Cunliffe AM, Hebden S, Lavergne T, Poulter B, Shepherd A, Smith T, Swingedouw D, Winkelmann R, Boers N. Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Nat Commun 2024; 15:343. [PMID: 38184618 PMCID: PMC10771461 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jesse F Abrams
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Annett Bartsch
- b.geos GmbH, Industriestrasse 1A, 2100, Korneuburg, Austria
- Austrian Polar Research Institute, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | | | - Alessandra Conversi
- National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR-Lerici, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc. Pozzuolo, 19032, Lerici (SP), Italy
| | | | - Sophie Hebden
- Future Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- European Space Agency, ECSAT, Harwell, Oxfordshire, UK
| | | | | | - Andrew Shepherd
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
| | - Taylor Smith
- Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600, Pessac, France
| | | | - Niklas Boers
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
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3
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Ben-Yami M, Skiba V, Bathiany S, Boers N. Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8344. [PMID: 38102135 PMCID: PMC10724135 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/28/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Observations are increasingly used to detect critical slowing down (CSD) to measure stability changes in key Earth system components. However, most datasets have non-stationary missing-data distributions, biases and uncertainties. Here we show that, together with the pre-processing steps used to deal with them, these can bias the CSD analysis. We present an uncertainty quantification method to address such issues. We show how to propagate uncertainties provided with the datasets to the CSD analysis and develop conservative, surrogate-based significance tests on the CSD indicators. We apply our method to three observational sea-surface temperature and salinity datasets and to fingerprints of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation derived from them. We find that the properties of these datasets and especially the specific gap filling procedures can in some cases indeed cause false indication of CSD. However, CSD indicators in the North Atlantic are still present and significant when accounting for dataset uncertainties and non-stationary observational coverage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maya Ben-Yami
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Vanessa Skiba
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Niklas Boers
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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Xu Z, Mason JA, Xu C, Yi S, Bathiany S, Yizhaq H, Zhou Y, Cheng J, Holmgren M, Lu H. Critical transitions in Chinese dunes during the past 12,000 years. Sci Adv 2020; 6:eaay8020. [PMID: 32133406 PMCID: PMC7043910 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aay8020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2019] [Accepted: 12/06/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Dune systems can have alternative stable states that coexist under certain environmental conditions: a vegetated, stabilized state and a bare active state. This behavior implies the possibility of abrupt transitions from one state to another in response to gradual environmental change. Here, we synthesize stratigraphic records covering 12,000 years of dynamics of this system at 144 localities across three dune fields in northern China. We find side-by-side coexistence of active and stabilized states, and occasional sharp shifts in time between those contrasting states. Those shifts occur asynchronously despite the fact that the entire landscape has been subject to the same gradual changes in monsoon rainfall and other conditions. At larger scale, the spatial heterogeneity in dune dynamics averages out to produce relatively smooth change. However, our results do show different paths of recovery and collapse of vegetation at system-wide scales, implying that hysteretic behavior occurs in spatially extended systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiwei Xu
- School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Joseph A. Mason
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin–Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Chi Xu
- School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Shuangwen Yi
- School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Hezi Yizhaq
- Department of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede Boqer Campus, 84990, Israel
| | - Yali Zhou
- School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
| | - Jun Cheng
- Polar Climate System and Global Change Laboratory, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Milena Holmgren
- Resource Ecology Group, Wageningen University, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Huayu Lu
- School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
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5
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Weinans E, Lever JJ, Bathiany S, Quax R, Bascompte J, van Nes EH, Scheffer M, van de Leemput IA. Finding the direction of lowest resilience in multivariate complex systems. J R Soc Interface 2019; 16:20190629. [PMID: 31662072 PMCID: PMC6833331 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2019.0629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2019] [Accepted: 10/09/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The dynamics of complex systems, such as ecosystems, financial markets and the human brain, emerge from the interactions of numerous components. We often lack the knowledge to build reliable models for the behaviour of such network systems. This makes it difficult to predict potential instabilities. We show that one could use the natural fluctuations in multivariate time series to reveal network regions with particularly slow dynamics. The multidimensional slowness points to the direction of minimal resilience, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations on this set of nodes will take longest to recover. We compare an autocorrelation-based method with a variance-based method for different time-series lengths, data resolution and different noise regimes. We show that the autocorrelation-based method is less robust for short time series or time series with a low resolution but more robust for varying noise levels. This novel approach may help to identify unstable regions of multivariate systems or to distinguish safe from unsafe perturbations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Els Weinans
- Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - J. Jelle Lever
- Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterhurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Rick Quax
- Computational Science Lab, University of Amsterdam, 1098 XH Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jordi Bascompte
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterhurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Egbert H. van Nes
- Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Ingrid A. van de Leemput
- Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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6
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Runge J, Bathiany S, Bollt E, Camps-Valls G, Coumou D, Deyle E, Glymour C, Kretschmer M, Mahecha MD, Muñoz-Marí J, van Nes EH, Peters J, Quax R, Reichstein M, Scheffer M, Schölkopf B, Spirtes P, Sugihara G, Sun J, Zhang K, Zscheischler J. Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences. Nat Commun 2019; 10:2553. [PMID: 31201306 PMCID: PMC6572812 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 137] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2018] [Accepted: 04/17/2019] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jakob Runge
- German Aerospace Center, Institute of Data Science, Mälzer Str. 3, 07745, Jena, Germany.
- Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Fischertwiete 1, 20095, Hamburg, Germany
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Erik Bollt
- Department of Mathematics, Clarkson Center for Complex Systems Science (C3S2), Clarkson University, 8 Clarkson Ave., Potsdam, NY, 13699-5815, USA
| | - Gustau Camps-Valls
- Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, ES-46980, Paterna (València), Spain
| | - Dim Coumou
- Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Analysis, Telegraphenberg A62, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ethan Deyle
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
| | - Clark Glymour
- Department of Philosophy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA
| | - Marlene Kretschmer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Analysis, Telegraphenberg A62, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Miguel D Mahecha
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, PO Box 100164, 07701, Jena, Germany
| | - Jordi Muñoz-Marí
- Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, ES-46980, Paterna (València), Spain
| | - Egbert H van Nes
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Jonas Peters
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5, 2100, København, Denmark
| | - Rick Quax
- Institute for Informatics, University of Amsterdam, PO Box 94323, 1090 GH, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Institute of Advanced Studies, University of Amsterdam, Oude Turfmarkt 147, 1012, GC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Markus Reichstein
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, PO Box 100164, 07701, Jena, Germany
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Bernhard Schölkopf
- Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Max Planck Ring 4, 72076, Tübingen, Germany
| | - Peter Spirtes
- Department of Philosophy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA
| | - George Sugihara
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
| | - Jie Sun
- Department of Mathematics, Clarkson Center for Complex Systems Science (C3S2), Clarkson University, 8 Clarkson Ave., Potsdam, NY, 13699-5815, USA
- Department of Physics and Department of Computer Science, Clarkson University, 8 Clarkson Ave., Potsdam, NY, 13699-5815, USA
| | - Kun Zhang
- Department of Philosophy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA
| | - Jakob Zscheischler
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland
- Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
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7
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Bathiany S, Dakos V, Scheffer M, Lenton TM. Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries. Sci Adv 2018; 4:eaar5809. [PMID: 29732409 PMCID: PMC5931768 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aar5809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 115] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2017] [Accepted: 03/16/2018] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C-1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian Bathiany
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
- Corresponding author.
| | - Vasilis Dakos
- Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution, UMR 5554, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, CC 065, Place Eugéne Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Timothy M. Lenton
- Earth System Science Group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
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8
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Lenton TM, Dakos V, Bathiany S, Scheffer M. Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability. Sci Rep 2017; 7:5940. [PMID: 28725011 PMCID: PMC5517648 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2017] [Accepted: 06/13/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957-2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic 'teleconnections' we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy M Lenton
- Earth System Science Group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK.
| | - Vasilis Dakos
- Institute of Integrative Biology, Center for Adaptation to a Changing Environment, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (ISEM), BioDICée team, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, place Eugène Bataillon, UMR 5554, CC065, Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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9
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van Nes EH, Arani BMS, Staal A, van der Bolt B, Flores BM, Bathiany S, Scheffer M. What Do You Mean, 'Tipping Point'? Trends Ecol Evol 2016; 31:902-904. [PMID: 27793466 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2016.09.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2016] [Revised: 09/28/2016] [Accepted: 09/30/2016] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Over the past 10 years the use of the term 'tipping point' in the scientific literature has exploded. It was originally used loosely as a metaphor for the phenomenon that, beyond a certain threshold, runaway change propels a system to a new state. Although several specific mathematical definitions have since been proposed, we argue that these are too narrow and that it is better to retain the original definition.
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Affiliation(s)
- Egbert H van Nes
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Environmental Science Department, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
| | - Babak M S Arani
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Environmental Science Department, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Arie Staal
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Environmental Science Department, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Bregje van der Bolt
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Environmental Science Department, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Bernardo M Flores
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Environmental Science Department, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Environmental Science Department, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Environmental Science Department, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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10
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von der Heydt AS, Dijkstra HA, van de Wal RSW, Caballero R, Crucifix M, Foster GL, Huber M, Köhler P, Rohling E, Valdes PJ, Ashwin P, Bathiany S, Berends T, van Bree LGJ, Ditlevsen P, Ghil M, Haywood AM, Katzav J, Lohmann G, Lohmann J, Lucarini V, Marzocchi A, Pälike H, Baroni IR, Simon D, Sluijs A, Stap LB, Tantet A, Viebahn J, Ziegler M. Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes. Curr Clim Change Rep 2016; 2:148-158. [PMID: 32025471 PMCID: PMC6979625 DOI: 10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna S. von der Heydt
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Extreme Matter and Emergent Phenomena, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Henk A. Dijkstra
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Extreme Matter and Emergent Phenomena, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Roderik S. W. van de Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Extreme Matter and Emergent Phenomena, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Rodrigo Caballero
- Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Michel Crucifix
- Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Gavin L. Foster
- Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH UK
| | - Matthew Huber
- Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
- Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03814 USA
| | - Peter Köhler
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (AWI), P.O. Box 12 01 61, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Eelco Rohling
- Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH UK
- Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, 2601 Australia
| | - Paul J. Valdes
- Cabot Institute and School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS UK
| | - Peter Ashwin
- Centre for Systems, Dynamics and Control, Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF UK
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Tijn Berends
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Extreme Matter and Emergent Phenomena, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Loes G. J. van Bree
- Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Peter Ditlevsen
- Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark
| | - Michael Ghil
- Department of Geosciences and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Supérieure, 75231 Paris Cedex, France
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-9567 USA
| | - Alan M. Haywood
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | - Joel Katzav
- School of Innovation Sciences, Philosophy Department, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eeuwsel 5612, AZ Eindhoven, The Netherlands
- School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072 Australia
| | - Gerrit Lohmann
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (AWI), P.O. Box 12 01 61, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
- MARUM-Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, 28359 Bremen, Germany
| | - Johannes Lohmann
- Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark
| | - Valerio Lucarini
- CEN, Institute of Meteorology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Alice Marzocchi
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
| | - Heiko Pälike
- MARUM-Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, 28359 Bremen, Germany
| | - Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni
- Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 9, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Dirk Simon
- Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80.021, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Appy Sluijs
- Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Lennert B. Stap
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Extreme Matter and Emergent Phenomena, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Alexis Tantet
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Extreme Matter and Emergent Phenomena, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jan Viebahn
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Extreme Matter and Emergent Phenomena, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Martin Ziegler
- Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80.021, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands
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