1
|
Pereira HM, Martins IS, Rosa IMD, Kim H, Leadley P, Popp A, van Vuuren DP, Hurtt G, Quoss L, Arneth A, Baisero D, Bakkenes M, Chaplin-Kramer R, Chini L, Di Marco M, Ferrier S, Fujimori S, Guerra CA, Harfoot M, Harwood TD, Hasegawa T, Haverd V, Havlík P, Hellweg S, Hilbers JP, Hill SLL, Hirata A, Hoskins AJ, Humpenöder F, Janse JH, Jetz W, Johnson JA, Krause A, Leclère D, Matsui T, Meijer JR, Merow C, Obersteiner M, Ohashi H, De Palma A, Poulter B, Purvis A, Quesada B, Rondinini C, Schipper AM, Settele J, Sharp R, Stehfest E, Strassburg BBN, Takahashi K, Talluto MV, Thuiller W, Titeux N, Visconti P, Ware C, Wolf F, Alkemade R. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. Science 2024; 384:458-465. [PMID: 38662818 DOI: 10.1126/science.adn3441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 03/28/2024] [Indexed: 05/04/2024]
Abstract
Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Henrique M Pereira
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- BIOPOLIS, CIBIO/InBIO, Universidade do Porto, Vairão 4485-661, Portugal
| | - Inês S Martins
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Isabel M D Rosa
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- Kenvue Portugal, JNTL Consumer Health Ltd, Porto Salvo 2740-262, Portugal
| | - HyeJin Kim
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Paul Leadley
- Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Gif-sur-Yvette 91190, France
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany
- Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen D-37213, Germany
| | - Detlef P van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht 3584 CB, Netherlands
| | - George Hurtt
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Luise Quoss
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany
| | - Daniele Baisero
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy
- KBA Secretariat, BirdLife International, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Michel Bakkenes
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
| | - Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Louise Chini
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy
| | | | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Katsura Campus, Kyoto University, Kyoto-city 615-8540, Japan
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Carlos A Guerra
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Universidade de Coimbra, Coimbra 3004-530, Portugal
| | - Michael Harfoot
- United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Thomas D Harwood
- CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
- Ritsumeikan University, Shiga 525-8577, Japan
| | | | - Petr Havlík
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Stefanie Hellweg
- Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich 8093, Switzerland
| | - Jelle P Hilbers
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Radboud University, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Nijmegen 6500 GL, Netherlands
| | - Samantha L L Hill
- United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Akiko Hirata
- Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
| | - Andrew J Hoskins
- CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
- James Cook University, Townsville, 4811 Queensland, Australia
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany
| | - Jan H Janse
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen 6700AB, Netherlands
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Justin A Johnson
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany
- Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Freising 85354, Germany
| | - David Leclère
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Tetsuya Matsui
- Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
| | - Johan R Meijer
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
| | - Cory Merow
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
| | - Michael Obersteiner
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Haruka Ohashi
- Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
| | - Adriana De Palma
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Benjamin Quesada
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany
- "Interactions Climate-Ecosystems (ICE)" Research Group, Earth System Science Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá DC 63B-48, Colombia
| | - Carlo Rondinini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy
| | - Aafke M Schipper
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Radboud University, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Nijmegen 6500 GL, Netherlands
| | - Josef Settele
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems, Halle 06210, Germany
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Laguna 4031, Philippines
| | - Richard Sharp
- Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
| | - Bernardo B N Strassburg
- re.green, Rio de Janeiro 22470-060, Brazil
- Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, Brazil
| | - Kiyoshi Takahashi
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Matthew V Talluto
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck 6020, Austria
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, LECA, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Grenoble F-38000, France
| | - Nicolas Titeux
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems, Halle 06210, Germany
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg
| | - Piero Visconti
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London C1E6BT, UK
| | | | - Florian Wolf
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
| | - Rob Alkemade
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Earth System and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen 6708PB Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Lenton TM, Abrams JF, Bartsch A, Bathiany S, Boulton CA, Buxton JE, Conversi A, Cunliffe AM, Hebden S, Lavergne T, Poulter B, Shepherd A, Smith T, Swingedouw D, Winkelmann R, Boers N. Publisher Correction: Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Nat Commun 2024; 15:1917. [PMID: 38429286 PMCID: PMC10907352 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45881-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/03/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Jesse F Abrams
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Annett Bartsch
- b.geos GmbH, Industriestrasse 1A, 2100, Korneuburg, Austria
- Austrian Polar Research Institute, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | | | - Alessandra Conversi
- National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR-Lerici, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc. Pozzuolo, 19032, Lerici (SP), Italy
| | | | - Sophie Hebden
- Future Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- European Space Agency, ECSAT, Harwell, Oxfordshire, UK
| | | | | | - Andrew Shepherd
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
| | - Taylor Smith
- Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600, Pessac, France
| | | | - Niklas Boers
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Lenton TM, Abrams JF, Bartsch A, Bathiany S, Boulton CA, Buxton JE, Conversi A, Cunliffe AM, Hebden S, Lavergne T, Poulter B, Shepherd A, Smith T, Swingedouw D, Winkelmann R, Boers N. Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Nat Commun 2024; 15:343. [PMID: 38184618 PMCID: PMC10771461 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Jesse F Abrams
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Annett Bartsch
- b.geos GmbH, Industriestrasse 1A, 2100, Korneuburg, Austria
- Austrian Polar Research Institute, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | | | - Alessandra Conversi
- National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR-Lerici, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc. Pozzuolo, 19032, Lerici (SP), Italy
| | | | - Sophie Hebden
- Future Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- European Space Agency, ECSAT, Harwell, Oxfordshire, UK
| | | | | | - Andrew Shepherd
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
| | - Taylor Smith
- Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Didier Swingedouw
- University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600, Pessac, France
| | | | - Niklas Boers
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Feron S, Malhotra A, Bansal S, Fluet-Chouinard E, McNicol G, Knox SH, Delwiche KB, Cordero RR, Ouyang Z, Zhang Z, Poulter B, Jackson RB. Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17131. [PMID: 38273508 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 12/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH4 fluxes (FCH4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH4 over 1981-2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites (n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH4 , with increases in FCH4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981-1989 to 2010-2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10-40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Feron
- Knowledge Infrastructures, Campus Fryslân, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Department of Physics, Universidad de Santiago, Santiago, Chile
| | - Avni Malhotra
- Biological Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
| | - Sheel Bansal
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, North Dakota, USA
| | - Etienne Fluet-Chouinard
- Earth Systems Science Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
| | - Gavin McNicol
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Sara H Knox
- Department of Geography, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Kyle B Delwiche
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Raul R Cordero
- Department of Physics, Universidad de Santiago, Santiago, Chile
| | - Zutao Ouyang
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford, California, USA
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Amaral C, Poulter B, Lagomasino D, Fatoyinbo T, Taillie P, Lizcano G, Canty S, Silveira JAH, Teutli-Hernández C, Cifuentes-Jara M, Charles SP, Moreno CS, González-Trujillo JD, Roman-Cuesta RM. Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin. Sci Total Environ 2023; 898:165413. [PMID: 37429480 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Revised: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 07/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/12/2023]
Abstract
The North Atlantic Basin (NAB) has seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones since the 1980s, with record-breaking seasons in 2017 and 2020. However, little is known about how coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, respond to these new "climate normals" at regional and subregional scales. Wind speed, rainfall, pre-cyclone forest height, and hydro-geomorphology are known to influence mangrove damage and recovery following cyclones in the NAB. However, previous studies have focused on local-scale responses and individual cyclonic events. Here, we analyze 25 years (1996-2020) of mangrove vulnerability (damage after a cyclone) and 24 years (1996-2019) of short-term resilience (recovery after damage) for the NAB and subregions, using multi-annual, remote sensing-derived databases. We used machine learning to characterize the influence of 22 potential variables on mangrove responses, including human development and long-term climate trends. Our results document variability in the rates and drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience, highlighting hotspots of cyclone impacts, mangrove damage, and loss of resilience. Cyclone characteristics mainly drove vulnerability at the regional level. In contrast, resilience was driven by site-specific conditions, including long-term climate trends, pre-cyclone forest structure, soil organic carbon stock, and coastal development (i.e., proximity to human infrastructure). Coastal development is associated with both vulnerability and resilience at the subregional level. Further, we highlight that loss of resilience occurs mostly in areas experiencing long-term drought across the NAB. The impacts of increasing cyclone activity on mangroves and their coastal protection service must be framed in the context of compound climate change effects and continued coastal development. Our work offers descriptive and spatial information to support the restoration and adaptive management of NAB mangroves, which need adequate health, structure, and density to protect coasts and serve as Nature-based Solutions against climate change and extreme weather events.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Cibele Amaral
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80303, United States; Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Department of Forest Engineering, Viçosa, MG 36570-900, Brazil; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States.
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
| | - David Lagomasino
- East Carolina University, Department of Coastal Studies, Greenville, NC 27858-4353, United States
| | - Temilola Fatoyinbo
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
| | - Paul Taillie
- University of Florida, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States
| | - Gil Lizcano
- Climate Scale, Parc Barcelona Activa, 08402 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Steven Canty
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, 647 Contees Wharf Road, Edgewater, MD 21037, United States; Working Land and Seascapes, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013, United States
| | | | | | - Miguel Cifuentes-Jara
- Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, United States; Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza, 30501 Turrialba, Costa Rica
| | - Sean Patrick Charles
- East Carolina University, Department of Coastal Studies, Greenville, NC 27858-4353, United States
| | - Claudia Shantal Moreno
- Chair of Land Management, Technical University of Munich, Arcisstraße 21, D-80333 Munich, Germany
| | - Juan David González-Trujillo
- Departamento de Biogeografía y Cambio Global, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, JoseGutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain; Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, MED Institute, Universidade de Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, 7000 Évora, Portugal
| | - Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta
- Wageningen University & Research, Laboratory of Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing, 6708PB Wageningen, the Netherlands; Technical University of Munich, School of Life Sciences, Institute of Forest Management, 85354 Fresing, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Chang KY, Riley WJ, Collier N, McNicol G, Fluet-Chouinard E, Knox SH, Delwiche KB, Jackson RB, Poulter B, Saunois M, Chandra N, Gedney N, Ishizawa M, Ito A, Joos F, Kleinen T, Maggi F, McNorton J, Melton JR, Miller P, Niwa Y, Pasut C, Patra PK, Peng C, Peng S, Segers A, Tian H, Tsuruta A, Yao Y, Yin Y, Zhang W, Zhang Z, Zhu Q, Zhu Q, Zhuang Q. Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:4298-4312. [PMID: 37190869 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 02/01/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH4 source, estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH4 year-1 ) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kuang-Yu Chang
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - William J Riley
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Nathan Collier
- Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
| | - Gavin McNicol
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | | | - Sara H Knox
- Department of Geography, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Kyle B Delwiche
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Marielle Saunois
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Naveen Chandra
- Institute of Arctic Climate and Environment Research (IACE), JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Nicola Gedney
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Wallingford, UK
| | - Misa Ishizawa
- Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Akihiko Ito
- Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Fortunat Joos
- Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Federico Maggi
- School of Civil Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Joe McNorton
- Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
| | - Joe R Melton
- Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Paul Miller
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- Centre for Environmental and Climate Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Yosuke Niwa
- Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
- Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Chiara Pasut
- School of Civil Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia
| | - Prabir K Patra
- Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
- Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
| | - Changhui Peng
- College of Resources and Environmental Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China
- Department of Biology Sciences, University of Québec at Montreal, Montreal, Québec, Canada
| | - Sushi Peng
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Arjo Segers
- Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Hanqin Tian
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Aki Tsuruta
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Yuanzhi Yao
- School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yi Yin
- Division of Geophysical and Planetary Science, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Wenxin Zhang
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
- Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Qing Zhu
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Qiuan Zhu
- College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
| | - Qianlai Zhuang
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, Indiana, West Lafayette, USA
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Feldman AF, Zhang Z, Yoshida Y, Gentine P, Chatterjee A, Entekhabi D, Joiner J, Poulter B. A multi-satellite framework to rapidly evaluate extreme biosphere cascades: The Western US 2021 drought and heatwave. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:3634-3651. [PMID: 37070967 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes and complex ecosystem responses motivate the need for integrated observational studies at low latency to determine biosphere responses and carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, we develop a satellite-based rapid attribution workflow and demonstrate its use at a 1-2-month latency to attribute drivers of the carbon cycle feedbacks during the 2020-2021 Western US drought and heatwave. In the first half of 2021, concurrent negative photosynthesis anomalies and large positive column CO2 anomalies were detected with satellites. Using a simple atmospheric mass balance approach, we estimate a surface carbon efflux anomaly of 132 TgC in June 2021, a magnitude corroborated independently with a dynamic global vegetation model. Integrated satellite observations of hydrologic processes, representing the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC), show that these surface carbon flux anomalies are largely due to substantial reductions in photosynthesis because of a spatially widespread moisture-deficit propagation through the SPAC between 2020 and 2021. A causal model indicates deep soil moisture stores partially drove photosynthesis, maintaining its values in 2020 and driving its declines throughout 2021. The causal model also suggests legacy effects may have amplified photosynthesis deficits in 2021 beyond the direct effects of environmental forcing. The integrated, observation framework presented here provides a valuable first assessment of a biosphere extreme response and an independent testbed for improving drought propagation and mechanisms in models. The rapid identification of extreme carbon anomalies and hotspots can also aid mitigation and adaptation decisions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Andrew F Feldman
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
- NASA Postdoctoral Program, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Yasuko Yoshida
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc. (SSAI), Lanham, Maryland, USA
| | - Pierre Gentine
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Abhishek Chatterjee
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Dara Entekhabi
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Joanna Joiner
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Ma L, Hurtt G, Tang H, Lamb R, Lister A, Chini L, Dubayah R, Armston J, Campbell E, Duncanson L, Healey S, O'Neil-Dunne J, Ott L, Poulter B, Shen Q. Spatial heterogeneity of global forest aboveground carbon stocks and fluxes constrained by spaceborne lidar data and mechanistic modeling. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:3378-3394. [PMID: 37013906 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16682] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 02/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Forest carbon is a large and uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. An important source of complexity is the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation vertical structure and extent, which results from variations in climate, soils, and disturbances and influences both contemporary carbon stocks and fluxes. Recent advances in remote sensing and ecosystem modeling have the potential to significantly improve the characterization of vegetation structure and its resulting influence on carbon. Here, we used novel remote sensing observations of tree canopy height collected by two NASA spaceborne lidar missions, Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation and ICE, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite 2, together with a newly developed global Ecosystem Demography model (v3.0) to characterize the spatial heterogeneity of global forest structure and quantify the corresponding implications for forest carbon stocks and fluxes. Multiple-scale evaluations suggested favorable results relative to other estimates including field inventory, remote sensing-based products, and national statistics. However, this approach utilized several orders of magnitude more data (3.77 billion lidar samples) on vegetation structure than used previously and enabled a qualitative increase in the spatial resolution of model estimates achievable (0.25° to 0.01°). At this resolution, process-based models are now able to capture detailed spatial patterns of forest structure previously unattainable, including patterns of natural and anthropogenic disturbance and recovery. Through the novel integration of new remote sensing data and ecosystem modeling, this study bridges the gap between existing empirically based remote sensing approaches and process-based modeling approaches. This study more generally demonstrates the promising value of spaceborne lidar observations for advancing carbon modeling at a global scale.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lei Ma
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - George Hurtt
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Hao Tang
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Rachel Lamb
- Geographical Sciences, Maryland Department of the Environment, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Andrew Lister
- United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Northern Research Station, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Louise Chini
- Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Ralph Dubayah
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - John Armston
- Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Elliott Campbell
- Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Annapolis, Maryland, USA
| | - Laura Duncanson
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Sean Healey
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Jarlath O'Neil-Dunne
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA
| | - Lesley Ott
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Quan Shen
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, Maryland, USA
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Ochiai O, Poulter B, Seifert FM, Ward S, Jarvis I, Whitcraft A, Sahajpal R, Gilliams S, Herold M, Carter S, Duncanson LI, Kay H, Lucas R, Wilson SN, Melo J, Post J, Briggs S, Quegan S, Dowell M, Cescatti A, Crisp D, Saatchi S, Tadono T, Steventon M, Rosenqvist A. Toward a roadmap for space-based observations of the land sector for the UNFCCC global stocktake. iScience 2023; 26:106489. [PMID: 37096039 PMCID: PMC10121458 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106489] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Space-based remote sensing can make an important contribution toward monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and removals from the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector, and to understanding and addressing human-caused climate change through the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. Space agencies have begun to coordinate their efforts to identify needs, collect and harmonize available data and efforts, and plan and maintain a long-term roadmap for observations. International cooperation is crucial in developing and realizing the roadmap, and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) is a key coordinating driver of this effort. Here, we first identify the data and information that will be useful to support the global stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement. Then, the paper explains how existing and planned space-based capabilities and products can be used and combined, particularly in the land use sector, and provides a workflow for their harmonization and contribution to greenhouse gas inventories and assessments at the national and global level.
Collapse
|
10
|
Ueyama M, Knox SH, Delwiche KB, Bansal S, Riley WJ, Baldocchi D, Hirano T, McNicol G, Schafer K, Windham-Myers L, Poulter B, Jackson RB, Chang KY, Chen J, Chu H, Desai AR, Gogo S, Iwata H, Kang M, Mammarella I, Peichl M, Sonnentag O, Tuittila ES, Ryu Y, Euskirchen ES, Göckede M, Jacotot A, Nilsson MB, Sachs T. Modeled production, oxidation, and transport processes of wetland methane emissions in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:2313-2334. [PMID: 36630533 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH4 ) to the atmosphere. The eddy covariance method provides robust measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CH4 , but interpreting its spatiotemporal variations is challenging due to the co-occurrence of CH4 production, oxidation, and transport dynamics. Here, we estimate these three processes using a data-model fusion approach across 25 wetlands in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions. Our data-constrained model-iPEACE-reasonably reproduced CH4 emissions at 19 of the 25 sites with normalized root mean square error of 0.59, correlation coefficient of 0.82, and normalized standard deviation of 0.87. Among the three processes, CH4 production appeared to be the most important process, followed by oxidation in explaining inter-site variations in CH4 emissions. Based on a sensitivity analysis, CH4 emissions were generally more sensitive to decreased water table than to increased gross primary productivity or soil temperature. For periods with leaf area index (LAI) of ≥20% of its annual peak, plant-mediated transport appeared to be the major pathway for CH4 transport. Contributions from ebullition and diffusion were relatively high during low LAI (<20%) periods. The lag time between CH4 production and CH4 emissions tended to be short in fen sites (3 ± 2 days) and long in bog sites (13 ± 10 days). Based on a principal component analysis, we found that parameters for CH4 production, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion through water explained 77% of the variance in the parameters across the 19 sites, highlighting the importance of these parameters for predicting wetland CH4 emissions across biomes. These processes and associated parameters for CH4 emissions among and within the wetlands provide useful insights for interpreting observed net CH4 fluxes, estimating sensitivities to biophysical variables, and modeling global CH4 fluxes.
Collapse
Grants
- JPMXD1420318865 Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II
- 1936752 Arctic Observatory Program of the National Science Foundation
- 1503912 Arctic Observatory Program of the National Science Foundation
- 1107892 Arctic Observatory Program of the National Science Foundation
- NSF DEB-1026415 Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research Program funded by the National Science Foundation
- DEB-1636476 Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research Program funded by the National Science Foundation
- California Department of Water Resources, CA Fish and Wildlife
- Canada Research Chairs, Canada Foundation for Innovation Leaders Opportunity Fund
- 3119871 ICOS-Finland
- 20K21849 JSPS KAKENHI
- 2022003640002 Ministry of Environment of Korea
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Discovery Grant Programs
- NSF LTREB 2011276 NSF Long-Term Research in Environmental Biology Program
- Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computation (RUBISCO) Scientific Focus Area, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science
- PJ014892022022 Rural Development Administration
- SNO Tourbières, CNRS-INSU
- DE-AC02-05CH11231 U.S. Department of Energy
- U.S. Geological Survey, Ecosystems Mission Area, Land Change Science Program
- 7544821 US DOE Ameriflux
- Order 224 US Geological Survey, Research Work
- VH-NG-821 Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
- 341348 Academy of Finland project N-PERM
- 101056921 Horizon Europe project GreenFeedBack
- U.S. Geological Survey, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
- U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area, Earth Systems Processes Division
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Masahito Ueyama
- Graduate School of Agriculture, Osaka Metropolitan University, Sakai, Japan
| | - Sara H Knox
- Department of Geography, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Kyle B Delwiche
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Sheel Bansal
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, North Dakota, USA
| | - William J Riley
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Dennis Baldocchi
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Takashi Hirano
- Research Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Gavin McNicol
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Karina Schafer
- Department of Earth and Env Science, Rutgers University Newark, Newark, New Jersey, USA
| | | | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Kuang-Yu Chang
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Jiquen Chen
- Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Housen Chu
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Ankur R Desai
- Dept of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Sébastien Gogo
- ECOBIO (Écosystèmes, Biodiversité, Évolution), Université Rennes 1, CNRS UMR 6553, Rennes, France
| | - Hiroki Iwata
- Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Japan
| | - Minseok Kang
- National Center for Agro Meteorology, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Ivan Mammarella
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Matthias Peichl
- Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Oliver Sonnentag
- Université de Montréal, Département de géographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Youngryel Ryu
- Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Eugénie S Euskirchen
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
| | - Mathias Göckede
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Department of Biogeochemical Signals, Jena, Germany
| | | | - Mats B Nilsson
- Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Torsten Sachs
- GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Metz EM, Vardag SN, Basu S, Jung M, Ahrens B, El-Madany T, Sitch S, Arora VK, Briggs PR, Friedlingstein P, Goll DS, Jain AK, Kato E, Lombardozzi D, Nabel JEMS, Poulter B, Séférian R, Tian H, Wiltshire A, Yuan W, Yue X, Zaehle S, Deutscher NM, Griffith DWT, Butz A. Soil respiration-driven CO 2 pulses dominate Australia's flux variability. Science 2023; 379:1332-1335. [PMID: 36996200 DOI: 10.1126/science.add7833] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/01/2023]
Abstract
The Australian continent contributes substantially to the year-to-year variability of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) sink. However, the scarcity of in situ observations in remote areas prevents the deciphering of processes that force the CO2 flux variability. In this study, by examining atmospheric CO2 measurements from satellites in the period 2009-2018, we find recurrent end-of-dry-season CO2 pulses over the Australian continent. These pulses largely control the year-to-year variability of Australia's CO2 balance. They cause two to three times larger seasonal variations compared with previous top-down inversions and bottom-up estimates. The pulses occur shortly after the onset of rainfall and are driven by enhanced soil respiration preceding photosynthetic uptake in Australia's semiarid regions. The suggested continental-scale relevance of soil-rewetting processes has substantial implications for our understanding and modeling of global climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Eva-Marie Metz
- Institute of Environmental Physics, Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Sanam N Vardag
- Institute of Environmental Physics, Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
- Heidelberg Center for the Environment (HCE), Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Sourish Basu
- Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
| | - Martin Jung
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Bernhard Ahrens
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Tarek El-Madany
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, UK
| | - Vivek K Arora
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8N 1V9, Canada
| | - Peter R Briggs
- Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Département de Géosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 75005 Paris, France
| | - Daniel S Goll
- Université Paris Saclay, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, LSCE/IPSL, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
| | - Etsushi Kato
- Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
| | - Danica Lombardozzi
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
| | - Julia E M S Nabel
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Roland Séférian
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, France
| | - Hanqin Tian
- Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA
| | - Andrew Wiltshire
- Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
| | - Wenping Yuan
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
| | - Xu Yue
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Sönke Zaehle
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Nicholas M Deutscher
- Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
| | - David W T Griffith
- Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
| | - André Butz
- Institute of Environmental Physics, Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
- Heidelberg Center for the Environment (HCE), Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
- Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Tucker C, Brandt M, Hiernaux P, Kariryaa A, Rasmussen K, Small J, Igel C, Reiner F, Melocik K, Meyer J, Sinno S, Romero E, Glennie E, Fitts Y, Morin A, Pinzon J, McClain D, Morin P, Porter C, Loeffler S, Kergoat L, Issoufou BA, Savadogo P, Wigneron JP, Poulter B, Ciais P, Kaufmann R, Myneni R, Saatchi S, Fensholt R. Sub-continental-scale carbon stocks of individual trees in African drylands. Nature 2023; 615:80-86. [PMID: 36859581 PMCID: PMC9977681 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05653-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Accepted: 12/13/2022] [Indexed: 03/03/2023]
Abstract
The distribution of dryland trees and their density, cover, size, mass and carbon content are not well known at sub-continental to continental scales1-14. This information is important for ecological protection, carbon accounting, climate mitigation and restoration efforts of dryland ecosystems15-18. We assessed more than 9.9 billion trees derived from more than 300,000 satellite images, covering semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa north of the Equator. We attributed wood, foliage and root carbon to every tree in the 0-1,000 mm year-1 rainfall zone by coupling field data19, machine learning20-22, satellite data and high-performance computing. Average carbon stocks of individual trees ranged from 0.54 Mg C ha-1 and 63 kg C tree-1 in the arid zone to 3.7 Mg C ha-1 and 98 kg tree-1 in the sub-humid zone. Overall, we estimated the total carbon for our study area to be 0.84 (±19.8%) Pg C. Comparisons with 14 previous TRENDY numerical simulation studies23 for our area found that the density and carbon stocks of scattered trees have been underestimated by three models and overestimated by 11 models, respectively. This benchmarking can help understand the carbon cycle and address concerns about land degradation24-29. We make available a linked database of wood mass, foliage mass, root mass and carbon stock of each tree for scientists, policymakers, dryland-restoration practitioners and farmers, who can use it to estimate farmland tree carbon stocks from tablets or laptops.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Compton Tucker
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA.
| | - Martin Brandt
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA.
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | - Pierre Hiernaux
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA.
- Pastoralisme Conseil, Caylus, France.
| | - Ankit Kariryaa
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Computer Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Kjeld Rasmussen
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jennifer Small
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Christian Igel
- Department of Computer Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Florian Reiner
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Katherine Melocik
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Jesse Meyer
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Scott Sinno
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Eric Romero
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Erin Glennie
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Yasmin Fitts
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - August Morin
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Jorge Pinzon
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Devin McClain
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Paul Morin
- Learning and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
| | - Claire Porter
- Learning and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
| | - Shane Loeffler
- Learning and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
| | - Laurent Kergoat
- Géosciences Environnement Toulouse, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, UMR 5563 (CNRS/UPS/IRD/CNES), Toulouse, France
| | | | | | | | - Benjamin Poulter
- Earth Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Robert Kaufmann
- Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ranga Myneni
- Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Sassan Saatchi
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Rasmus Fensholt
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Fluet-Chouinard E, Stocker BD, Zhang Z, Malhotra A, Melton JR, Poulter B, Kaplan JO, Goldewijk KK, Siebert S, Minayeva T, Hugelius G, Joosten H, Barthelmes A, Prigent C, Aires F, Hoyt AM, Davidson N, Finlayson CM, Lehner B, Jackson RB, McIntyre PB. Extensive global wetland loss over the past three centuries. Nature 2023; 614:281-286. [PMID: 36755174 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05572-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 02/10/2023]
Abstract
Wetlands have long been drained for human use, thereby strongly affecting greenhouse gas fluxes, flood control, nutrient cycling and biodiversity1,2. Nevertheless, the global extent of natural wetland loss remains remarkably uncertain3. Here, we reconstruct the spatial distribution and timing of wetland loss through conversion to seven human land uses between 1700 and 2020, by combining national and subnational records of drainage and conversion with land-use maps and simulated wetland extents. We estimate that 3.4 million km2 (confidence interval 2.9-3.8) of inland wetlands have been lost since 1700, primarily for conversion to croplands. This net loss of 21% (confidence interval 16-23%) of global wetland area is lower than that suggested previously by extrapolations of data disproportionately from high-loss regions. Wetland loss has been concentrated in Europe, the United States and China, and rapidly expanded during the mid-twentieth century. Our reconstruction elucidates the timing and land-use drivers of global wetland losses, providing an improved historical baseline to guide assessment of wetland loss impact on Earth system processes, conservation planning to protect remaining wetlands and prioritization of sites for wetland restoration4.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Etienne Fluet-Chouinard
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. .,Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA. .,Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
| | - Benjamin D Stocker
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland.,Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.,Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Avni Malhotra
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Joe R Melton
- Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Jed O Kaplan
- Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Kees Klein Goldewijk
- Faculty of Geosciences, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Stefan Siebert
- Department of Crop Sciences, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Goettingen, Germany.,Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | - Gustaf Hugelius
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.,Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.,Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Hans Joosten
- Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Peatland Studies and Paleoecology, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.,Greifswald Mire Centre, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Alexandra Barthelmes
- Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Peatland Studies and Paleoecology, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.,Greifswald Mire Centre, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Catherine Prigent
- Sorbonne Université, Observatoire de Paris, Université PSL, CNRS, LERMA, Paris, France.,Estellus, Paris, France
| | - Filipe Aires
- Sorbonne Université, Observatoire de Paris, Université PSL, CNRS, LERMA, Paris, France.,Estellus, Paris, France
| | - Alison M Hoyt
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Nick Davidson
- Nick Davidson Environmental, Queens House, Wigmore, UK.,Gulbali Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Elizabeth Mitchell Drive, Albury, New South Wales, Australia
| | - C Max Finlayson
- Gulbali Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Elizabeth Mitchell Drive, Albury, New South Wales, Australia.,IHE Delft, Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands
| | - Bernhard Lehner
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.,Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Peter B McIntyre
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.,Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Stavros EN, Chrone J, Cawse‐Nicholson K, Freeman A, Glenn NF, Guild L, Kokaly R, Lee C, Luvall J, Pavlick R, Poulter B, Schollaert Uz S, Serbin S, Thompson DR, Townsend PA, Turpie K, Yuen K, Thome K, Wang W, Zareh S, Nastal J, Bearden D, Miller CE, Schimel D. Designing an Observing System to Study the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) of the Earth in the 2020s. J Geophys Res Biogeosci 2023; 128:e2021JG006471. [PMID: 37362830 PMCID: PMC10286770 DOI: 10.1029/2021jg006471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2021] [Revised: 03/16/2022] [Accepted: 03/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
Observations of planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of Earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs for studying Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). SBG will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change by characterizing the diversity of plant life and resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire risk, behavior, and recovery as well as responses to hazards such as oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides, and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. We present an overview of the Research and Applications trade-study analysis of algorithms, calibration and validation needs, and societal applications with specifics of substudies detailed in other articles in this special collection. We provide a value framework to converge from hundreds down to three candidate architectures recommended for development. The analysis identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the revisit frequency, adding value for all partners, leading to a clear measurement strategy for an observing system architecture.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- E. Natasha Stavros
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Jon Chrone
- NASA Langley Research CenterHamptonVAUSA
| | | | - Anthony Freeman
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | | | | | | | - Christine Lee
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | | | - Ryan Pavlick
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | | | | | | | - David R. Thompson
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Philip A. Townsend
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
- University of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWIUSA
| | - Kevin Turpie
- NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMDUSA
- University of Maryland Baltimore CountyGreenbeltMDUSA
| | - Karen Yuen
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Kurt Thome
- NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMDUSA
| | | | - Shannon‐Kian Zareh
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Jamie Nastal
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - David Bearden
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Charles E. Miller
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - David Schimel
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
O'Sullivan M, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Anthoni P, Arneth A, Arora VK, Bastrikov V, Delire C, Goll DS, Jain A, Kato E, Kennedy D, Knauer J, Lienert S, Lombardozzi D, McGuire PC, Melton JR, Nabel JEMS, Pongratz J, Poulter B, Séférian R, Tian H, Vuichard N, Walker AP, Yuan W, Yue X, Zaehle S. Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink. Nat Commun 2022; 13:4781. [PMID: 35970991 PMCID: PMC9378641 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32416-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink. The global net land sink is relatively well constrained. However, the responsible drivers and above/below-ground partitioning are highly uncertain. Model issues regarding turnover of individual plant and soil components are responsible.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Michael O'Sullivan
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK.
| | - Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK.,Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Paris, France
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
| | - Peter Anthoni
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Vivek K Arora
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Vladislav Bastrikov
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91198, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Christine Delire
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Daniel S Goll
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91198, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Atul Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61821, USA
| | - Etsushi Kato
- Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo, 105-0003, Japan
| | - Daniel Kennedy
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA
| | - Jürgen Knauer
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia.,CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, 2101, Australia
| | - Sebastian Lienert
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Danica Lombardozzi
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA
| | | | - Joe R Melton
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Julia E M S Nabel
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany.,Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
| | - Julia Pongratz
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany.,Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Luisenstr. 37, 80333, München, Germany
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
| | - Roland Séférian
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Hanqin Tian
- Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, 02467, USA
| | - Nicolas Vuichard
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91198, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Anthony P Walker
- Climate Change Science Institute & Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Wenping Yuan
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, 510245, China
| | - Xu Yue
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China
| | - Sönke Zaehle
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Cawse‐Nicholson K, Raiho AM, Thompson DR, Hulley GC, Miller CE, Miner KR, Poulter B, Schimel D, Schneider FD, Townsend PA, Zareh SK. Intrinsic Dimensionality as a Metric for the Impact of Mission Design Parameters. J Geophys Res Biogeosci 2022; 127:e2022JG006876. [PMID: 36248721 PMCID: PMC9539474 DOI: 10.1029/2022jg006876] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Revised: 07/05/2022] [Accepted: 07/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
High-resolution space-based spectral imaging of the Earth's surface delivers critical information for monitoring changes in the Earth system as well as resource management and utilization. Orbiting spectrometers are built according to multiple design parameters, including ground sampling distance (GSD), spectral resolution, temporal resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio. Different applications drive divergent instrument designs, so optimization for wide-reaching missions is complex. The Surface Biology and Geology component of NASA's Earth System Observatory addresses science questions and meets applications needs across diverse fields, including terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, natural disasters, and the cryosphere. The algorithms required to generate the geophysical variables from the observed spectral imagery each have their own inherent dependencies and sensitivities, and weighting these objectively is challenging. Here, we introduce intrinsic dimensionality (ID), a measure of information content, as an applications-agnostic, data-driven metric to quantify performance sensitivity to various design parameters. ID is computed through the analysis of the eigenvalues of the image covariance matrix, and can be thought of as the number of significant principal components. This metric is extremely powerful for quantifying the information content in high-dimensional data, such as spectrally resolved radiances and their changes over space and time. We find that the ID decreases for coarser GSD, decreased spectral resolution and range, less frequent acquisitions, and lower signal-to-noise levels. This decrease in information content has implications for all derived products. ID is simple to compute, providing a single quantitative standard to evaluate combinations of design parameters, irrespective of higher-level algorithms, products, applications, or disciplines.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- K. Cawse‐Nicholson
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - A. M. Raiho
- NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterBiospheric Sciences LabGreenbeltMDUSA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary CenterUniversity of MarylandCollege Park, GreenbeltMDUSA
| | - D. R. Thompson
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - G. C. Hulley
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - C. E. Miller
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - K. R. Miner
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - B. Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterBiospheric Sciences LabGreenbeltMDUSA
| | - D. Schimel
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - F. D. Schneider
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - P. A. Townsend
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
- University of WisconsinMadisonWIUSA
| | - S. K. Zareh
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Shuman JK, Balch JK, Barnes RT, Higuera PE, Roos CI, Schwilk DW, Stavros EN, Banerjee T, Bela MM, Bendix J, Bertolino S, Bililign S, Bladon KD, Brando P, Breidenthal RE, Buma B, Calhoun D, Carvalho LMV, Cattau ME, Cawley KM, Chandra S, Chipman ML, Cobian-Iñiguez J, Conlisk E, Coop JD, Cullen A, Davis KT, Dayalu A, De Sales F, Dolman M, Ellsworth LM, Franklin S, Guiterman CH, Hamilton M, Hanan EJ, Hansen WD, Hantson S, Harvey BJ, Holz A, Huang T, Hurteau MD, Ilangakoon NT, Jennings M, Jones C, Klimaszewski-Patterson A, Kobziar LN, Kominoski J, Kosovic B, Krawchuk MA, Laris P, Leonard J, Loria-Salazar SM, Lucash M, Mahmoud H, Margolis E, Maxwell T, McCarty JL, McWethy DB, Meyer RS, Miesel JR, Moser WK, Nagy RC, Niyogi D, Palmer HM, Pellegrini A, Poulter B, Robertson K, Rocha AV, Sadegh M, Santos F, Scordo F, Sexton JO, Sharma AS, Smith AMS, Soja AJ, Still C, Swetnam T, Syphard AD, Tingley MW, Tohidi A, Trugman AT, Turetsky M, Varner JM, Wang Y, Whitman T, Yelenik S, Zhang X. Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene. PNAS Nexus 2022; 1:pgac115. [PMID: 36741468 PMCID: PMC9896919 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/02/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jacquelyn K Shuman
- Terrestrial Sciences Section, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Jennifer K Balch
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Rebecca T Barnes
- Environmental Studies Program, Colorado College, 14 East Cache la Poudre, Colorado Springs, CO, 80903, USA
| | - Philip E Higuera
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, 32 Campus Dr., Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Christopher I Roos
- Department of Anthropology, Southern Methodist University, P.O. Box 750336, Dallas, TX, 75275-0336, USA
| | - Dylan W Schwilk
- Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, 2901 Main St. Lubbock, TX, 79409-43131, USA
| | - E Natasha Stavros
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Tirtha Banerjee
- Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, 3084 Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering Building, UC Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Megan M Bela
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, 216 UCB, Boulder CO, 80309, USA
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Jacob Bendix
- Department of Geography and the Environment, Syracuse University, 144 Eggers Hall, Syracuse NY 13244, USA
| | - Sandro Bertolino
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems Biology, University of Turin, Via Accademia Albertina 13, 10123 Torino, Italy
| | - Solomon Bililign
- Department of Physics, North Carolina A&T State University, 1601 E Market Street, Greensboro, NC 27411, USA
| | - Kevin D Bladon
- Department of Forest Engineering, Resources, and Management, Oregon State University, 244 Peavy Forest Science Center; Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA
| | - Paulo Brando
- Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, 3215 Croul Hall Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Robert E Breidenthal
- Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, University of Washington, Box 352400, Seattle, WA 98195-2400, USA
| | - Brian Buma
- Integrative Biology, University of Colorado Denver, Campus Box 171, P.O. Box 173364, Denver, CO 80217-3364, USA
| | - Donna Calhoun
- Department of Mathematics, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725-1135, USA
| | - Leila M V Carvalho
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | - Megan E Cattau
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise State Environmental Research Building, 1295 W University Dr, Boise, ID 83706, USA
| | - Kaelin M Cawley
- National Ecological Observatory Network, Battelle, 1685 38th St., Suite 100, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
| | - Sudeep Chandra
- Global Water Center, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia, Reno, NV, 89509, USA
| | - Melissa L Chipman
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Syracuse University, 317 Heroy Geology Building, 141 Crouse Dr, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
| | - Jeanette Cobian-Iñiguez
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California Merced, Sustainability Research and Engineering, SRE 366, 5200 Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| | - Erin Conlisk
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Dr, Petaluma, CA 94954, USA
| | - Jonathan D Coop
- Clark School of Environment and Sustainability, Western Colorado University, 1 Western Way, Gunnison CO 81231, USA
| | - Alison Cullen
- Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Parrington Hall, Mailbox 353055, Seattle, WA 98195-3055, USA
| | - Kimberley T Davis
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, 32 Campus Dr., Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Archana Dayalu
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, 131 Hartwell Ave, Lexington MA 02421, USA
| | - Fernando De Sales
- Department of Geography, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4493, USA
| | - Megan Dolman
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise State Environmental Research Building, 1295 W University Dr, Boise, ID 83706, USA
| | - Lisa M Ellsworth
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, 104 Nash Hall, Corvallis, OR 97330, USA
| | - Scott Franklin
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Northern Colorado, 501 20th Street, Greeley, CO 80639, USA
| | - Christopher H Guiterman
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, 216 UCB, Boulder CO, 80309, USA
- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 325 Broadway, NOAA E/GC3, Boulder, Colorado 80305-3337, USA
| | - Matthew Hamilton
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State University, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
| | - Erin J Hanan
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia St. Mail Stop 0186. Reno, NV 89509, USA
| | - Winslow D Hansen
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, PO Box AB, Millbrook, NY 12545, USA
| | - Stijn Hantson
- Earth System Science Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Max Planck Tandem Group in Earth System Science, Universidad del Rosario, Carrera 26 # 63b-48, Bogota, DC 111221, Colombia
| | - Brian J Harvey
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, UW-SEFS, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Andrés Holz
- Department of Geography, Portland State University, 1721 SW Broadway, Portland, OR 97201, USA
| | - Tao Huang
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise State Environmental Research Building, 1295 W University Dr, Boise, ID 83706, USA
| | - Matthew D Hurteau
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, MSC03 2020, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
| | - Nayani T Ilangakoon
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Megan Jennings
- Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Management, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4614, USA
| | - Charles Jones
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | | | - Leda N Kobziar
- College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, 1031 N. Academic Way Coeur d'Alene, ID 83844, USA
| | - John Kominoski
- Institute of Environment and Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL, 33199, USA
| | - Branko Kosovic
- Weather Systems and Assessment Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Meg A Krawchuk
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Paul Laris
- Department of Geography, California State University Long Beach, Long Beach, 1250 Bellflower Blvd, Long Beach, CA 90840, USA
| | - Jackson Leonard
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, 2500 S. Pine Knoll Dr. Flagstaff, Arizona 86001, USA
| | | | - Melissa Lucash
- Department of Geography, University of Oregon, 1251 University of Oregon, Eugene OR 97403-1251, USA
| | - Hussam Mahmoud
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, 1372 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA
| | - Ellis Margolis
- U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station, 15 Entrance Rd., Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA
| | - Toby Maxwell
- Department of Biological Sciences, Boise State University, 1910 University Dr. Boise ID 83725, USA
| | - Jessica L McCarty
- Department of Geography and Geospatial Analysis Center, Miami University, 217 Shideler Hall, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
| | - David B McWethy
- Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University, 226 Traphagen Hall, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
| | - Rachel S Meyer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 130 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
| | - Jessica R Miesel
- Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, Michigan State University, 1066 Bogue Street Rm A286, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
| | - W Keith Moser
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, 2500 S. Pine Knoll Dr. Flagstaff, Arizona 86001, USA
| | - R Chelsea Nagy
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Dev Niyogi
- Jackson School of Geosciences, and Cockrell School of Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 2305 Speedway Stop C1160, Austin, TX 78712-1692, USA
| | - Hannah M Palmer
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of California Merced, Merced, 5200 Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| | - Adam Pellegrini
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing St, Cambridge, CB2 3EA, UK
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Road, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Kevin Robertson
- Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy, 13093 Henry Beadel Drive, Tallahassee, FL 32312, USA
| | - Adrian V Rocha
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Campus Dr., Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Mojtaba Sadegh
- Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID, 83725, USA
| | - Fernanda Santos
- Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, P.O. Box 2008, MS-6038, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6038, USA
| | - Facundo Scordo
- Global Water Center and the Department of Biology, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia, Reno, NV, 89509, USA
- Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía (IADO-CONICET-UNS), Florida 8000, Bahía Blanca, B8000BFW Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Joseph O Sexton
- terraPulse, Inc., 13201 Squires Ct., North Potomac, MD 20878, USA
| | - A Surjalal Sharma
- Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, 4296 Stadium Dr., Astronomy Dept Room 1113, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Alistair M S Smith
- Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, College of Science, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive MS 3021, Moscow ID, 83843-3021, USA
- Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Science, College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive MS 1133, Moscow, ID 83844-1133, USA
| | - Amber J Soja
- NASA Langley Research Center, NASA, 2 Langley Blvd, Hampton, VA 23681, USA
- National Institute of Aerospace, NASA, 100 Exploration Way, Hampton, VA 23666, USA
| | - Christopher Still
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Tyson Swetnam
- Data Science Institute, University of Arizona, 1657 E Helen St, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Alexandra D Syphard
- Conservation Biology Institute, 10423 Sierra Vista Ave., La Mesa, CA, 91941, USA
| | - Morgan W Tingley
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, 621 Charles E Young Dr S #951606, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Ali Tohidi
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, San Jose State University, Room 310-K, ENG Building, 1 Washington Square, San Jose, CA 95112, USA
| | - Anna T Trugman
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | - Merritt Turetsky
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
| | - J Morgan Varner
- Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy, 13093 Henry Beadel Drive, Tallahassee, FL 32312, USA
| | - Yuhang Wang
- School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA
| | - Thea Whitman
- Department of Soil Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1525 Observatory Dr., Madison, WI 53711, USA
| | - Stephanie Yelenik
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, 920 Valley Road, Reno NV, 89512, USA
| | - Xuan Zhang
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of California Merced, Merced, 5200 Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Xi Y, Peng S, Ducharne A, Ciais P, Gumbricht T, Jimenez C, Poulter B, Prigent C, Qiu C, Saunois M, Zhang Z. Gridded maps of wetlands dynamics over mid-low latitudes for 1980–2020 based on TOPMODEL. Sci Data 2022. [PMCID: PMC9206665 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01460-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Dynamics of global wetlands are closely linked to biodiversity conservation, hydrology, and greenhouse gas emissions. However, long-term time series of global wetland products are still lacking. Using a diagnostic model based on the TOPography-based hydrological MODEL (TOPMODEL), this study produced an ensemble of 28 gridded maps of monthly global/regional wetland extents (with more reliable estimates at mid-low latitudes) for 1980–2020 at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution, calibrated with a combination of four observation-based wetland data and seven gridded soil moisture reanalysis datasets. The gridded dynamic maps of wetlands capture the spatial distributions, seasonal cycles, and interannual variabilities of observed wetland extent well, and also show a good agreement with independent satellite-based terrestrial water storage estimates over wetland areas. The long temporal coverage extending beyond the era of satellite datasets, the global coverage, and the opportunity to provide real-time updates from ongoing soil moisture data make these products helpful for various applications such as analyzing the wetland-related methane emission. Measurement(s) | wetland area | Technology Type(s) | computational modeling technique | Factor Type(s) | geographic location • temporal interval | Sample Characteristic - Environment | land | Sample Characteristic - Location | global |
Collapse
|
19
|
Stavert AR, Saunois M, Canadell JG, Poulter B, Jackson RB, Regnier P, Lauerwald R, Raymond PA, Allen GH, Patra PK, Bergamaschi P, Bousquet P, Chandra N, Ciais P, Gustafson A, Ishizawa M, Ito A, Kleinen T, Maksyutov S, McNorton J, Melton JR, Müller J, Niwa Y, Peng S, Riley WJ, Segers A, Tian H, Tsuruta A, Yin Y, Zhang Z, Zheng B, Zhuang Q. Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget. Glob Chang Biol 2022; 28:182-200. [PMID: 34553464 PMCID: PMC9298116 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2020] [Revised: 10/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/12/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH4 ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH4 emissions and CH4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000-2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions-China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil-account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2008-2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ann R. Stavert
- Global Carbon ProjectCSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereAspendaleVictoriaAustralia
- Global Carbon ProjectCSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereCanberraACTAustralia
| | - Marielle Saunois
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE‐IPSL (CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ)Université Paris‐SaclayGif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
| | - Josep G. Canadell
- Global Carbon ProjectCSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereAspendaleVictoriaAustralia
- Global Carbon ProjectCSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereCanberraACTAustralia
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterBiospheric Science LaboratoryGreenbeltMarylandUSA
| | - Robert B. Jackson
- Department of Earth System ScienceWoods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for EnergyStanford UniversityStanfordCaliforniaUSA
| | - Pierre Regnier
- Department of Geoscience, Environment and Society ‐ BGEOSYSUniversité Libre de BruxellesBrusselsBelgium
| | - Ronny Lauerwald
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE‐IPSL (CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ)Université Paris‐SaclayGif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
- Department of Geoscience, Environment and Society ‐ BGEOSYSUniversité Libre de BruxellesBrusselsBelgium
- Université Paris‐SaclayINRAEAgroParisTechUMR ECOSYSThiverval‐GrignonFrance
| | - Peter A. Raymond
- Yale School of the EnvironmentYale UniversityNew HavenConnecticutUSA
| | - George H. Allen
- Department of GeographyTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationTexasUSA
| | - Prabir K. Patra
- Research Institute for Global ChangeJAMSTECYokohamaJapan
- Center for Environmental Remote SensingChiba UniversityChibaJapan
| | | | - Phillipe Bousquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE‐IPSL (CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ)Université Paris‐SaclayGif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
| | - Naveen Chandra
- Center for Global Environmental ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)TsukubaJapan
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE‐IPSL (CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ)Université Paris‐SaclayGif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
| | - Adrian Gustafson
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
- Centre for Environmental and Climate ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
| | - Misa Ishizawa
- Center for Global Environmental ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)TsukubaJapan
| | - Akihiko Ito
- Center for Global Environmental ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)TsukubaJapan
| | | | - Shamil Maksyutov
- Center for Global Environmental ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)TsukubaJapan
| | - Joe McNorton
- Research DepartmentEuropean Centre for Medium‐Range Weather ForecastsReadingUK
| | - Joe R. Melton
- Climate Research DivisionEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaVictoriaBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Jurek Müller
- Climate and Environmental PhysicsPhysics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
| | - Yosuke Niwa
- Center for Global Environmental ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)TsukubaJapan
| | - Shushi Peng
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE‐IPSL (CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ)Université Paris‐SaclayGif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
| | - William J. Riley
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Arjo Segers
- Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)UtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change ResearchSchool of Forestry and Wildlife SciencesAuburn UniversityAuburnAlabamaUSA
| | - Aki Tsuruta
- Finnish Meteorological InstituteHelsinkiFinland
| | - Yi Yin
- Division of Geophysical and Planetary ScienceCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCaliforniaUSA
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Department of Geographical SciencesUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMarylandUSA
| | - Bo Zheng
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE‐IPSL (CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ)Université Paris‐SaclayGif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
| | - Qianlai Zhuang
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary SciencesPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteIndianaUSA
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Laughner JL, Neu JL, Schimel D, Wennberg PO, Barsanti K, Bowman KW, Chatterjee A, Croes BE, Fitzmaurice HL, Henze DK, Kim J, Kort EA, Liu Z, Miyazaki K, Turner AJ, Anenberg S, Avise J, Cao H, Crisp D, de Gouw J, Eldering A, Fyfe JC, Goldberg DL, Gurney KR, Hasheminassab S, Hopkins F, Ivey CE, Jones DBA, Liu J, Lovenduski NS, Martin RV, McKinley GA, Ott L, Poulter B, Ru M, Sander SP, Swart N, Yung YL, Zeng ZC. Societal shifts due to COVID-19 reveal large-scale complexities and feedbacks between atmospheric chemistry and climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:e2109481118. [PMID: 34753820 PMCID: PMC8609622 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2109481118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 global pandemic and associated government lockdowns dramatically altered human activity, providing a window into how changes in individual behavior, enacted en masse, impact atmospheric composition. The resulting reductions in anthropogenic activity represent an unprecedented event that yields a glimpse into a future where emissions to the atmosphere are reduced. Furthermore, the abrupt reduction in emissions during the lockdown periods led to clearly observable changes in atmospheric composition, which provide direct insight into feedbacks between the Earth system and human activity. While air pollutants and greenhouse gases share many common anthropogenic sources, there is a sharp difference in the response of their atmospheric concentrations to COVID-19 emissions changes, due in large part to their different lifetimes. Here, we discuss several key takeaways from modeling and observational studies. First, despite dramatic declines in mobility and associated vehicular emissions, the atmospheric growth rates of greenhouse gases were not slowed, in part due to decreased ocean uptake of CO2 and a likely increase in CH4 lifetime from reduced NO x emissions. Second, the response of O3 to decreased NO x emissions showed significant spatial and temporal variability, due to differing chemical regimes around the world. Finally, the overall response of atmospheric composition to emissions changes is heavily modulated by factors including carbon-cycle feedbacks to CH4 and CO2, background pollutant levels, the timing and location of emissions changes, and climate feedbacks on air quality, such as wildfires and the ozone climate penalty.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joshua L Laughner
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125;
| | - Jessica L Neu
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109;
| | - David Schimel
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109;
| | - Paul O Wennberg
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125;
- Division of Engineering and Applied Science, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125
| | - Kelley Barsanti
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521
- Center for Environmental Research and Technology, Riverside, CA 92507
| | - Kevin W Bowman
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109
| | - Abhishek Chatterjee
- Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD 21046
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771
| | - Bart E Croes
- Energy Research and Development Division, California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA 95814
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
| | - Helen L Fitzmaurice
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
| | - Daven K Henze
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
| | - Jinsol Kim
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
| | - Eric A Kort
- Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
| | - Zhu Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Kazuyuki Miyazaki
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109
| | - Alexander J Turner
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Susan Anenberg
- Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052
| | - Jeremy Avise
- Modeling and Meteorology Branch, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA 95814
| | - Hansen Cao
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
| | - David Crisp
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109
| | - Joost de Gouw
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
- Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
| | - Annmarie Eldering
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109
| | - John C Fyfe
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2 Canada
| | - Daniel L Goldberg
- Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052
| | - Kevin R Gurney
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011
| | - Sina Hasheminassab
- Science and Technology Advancement Division, South Coast Air Quality Management District, Diamond Bar, CA, 91765
| | - Francesca Hopkins
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521
| | - Cesunica E Ivey
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521
- Center for Environmental Research and Technology, Riverside, CA 92507
| | - Dylan B A Jones
- Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A1 Canada
| | - Junjie Liu
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109
| | - Nicole S Lovenduski
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
| | - Randall V Martin
- McKelvey School of Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63130
| | - Galen A McKinley
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
| | - Lesley Ott
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771
| | - Muye Ru
- The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27707
| | - Stanley P Sander
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109
| | - Neil Swart
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2 Canada
| | - Yuk L Yung
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109
| | - Zhao-Cheng Zeng
- Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Zhang (张臻) Z, Poulter B, Knox S, Stavert A, McNicol G, Fluet-Chouinard E, Feinberg A, Zhao (赵园红) Y, Bousquet P, Canadell JG, Ganesan A, Hugelius G, Hurtt G, Jackson RB, Patra PK, Saunois M, Höglund-Isaksson L, Huang (黄春林) C, Chatterjee A, Li (李新) X. Anthropogenic emission is the main contributor to the rise of atmospheric methane during 1993–2017. Natl Sci Rev 2021; 9:nwab200. [PMID: 35547958 PMCID: PMC9084358 DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwab200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2021] [Revised: 11/03/2021] [Accepted: 11/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have shown a puzzling resumption in growth since 2007 following a period of stabilization from 2000 to 2006. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain the temporal variations in CH4 growth, and attribute the rise of atmospheric CH4 either to increases in emissions from fossil fuel activities, agriculture and natural wetlands, or to a decrease in the atmospheric chemical sink. Here, we use a comprehensive ensemble of CH4 source estimates and isotopic δ13C-CH4 source signature data to show that the resumption of CH4 growth is most likely due to increased anthropogenic emissions. Our emission scenarios that have the fewest biases with respect to isotopic composition suggest that the agriculture, landfill and waste sectors were responsible for 53 ± 13% of the renewed growth over the period 2007–2017 compared to 2000–2006; industrial fossil fuel sources explained an additional 34 ± 24%, and wetland sources contributed the least at 13 ± 9%. The hypothesis that a large increase in emissions from natural wetlands drove the decrease in atmospheric δ13C-CH4 values cannot be reconciled with current process-based wetland CH4 models. This finding suggests the need for increased wetland measurements to better understand the contemporary and future role of wetlands in the rise of atmospheric methane and climate feedback. Our findings highlight the predominant role of anthropogenic activities in driving the growth of atmospheric CH4 concentrations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zhen Zhang (张臻)
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Sara Knox
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver V6T 1Z2, Canada
| | - Ann Stavert
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Gavin McNicol
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607, USA
| | | | - Aryeh Feinberg
- Institute for Data, Systems and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
| | - Yuanhong Zhao (赵园红)
- College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266000, China
| | - Philippe Bousquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Josep G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Anita Ganesan
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RL, UK
| | - Gustaf Hugelius
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106 91, Sweden
| | - George Hurtt
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Prabir K Patra
- Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan
| | - Marielle Saunois
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Lena Höglund-Isaksson
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg A-2361, Austria
| | - Chunlin Huang (黄春林)
- Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Abhishek Chatterjee
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD 21046, USA
| | - Xin Li (李新)
- Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| |
Collapse
|
22
|
Weir B, Crisp D, O’Dell CW, Basu S, Chatterjee A, Kolassa J, Oda T, Pawson S, Poulter B, Zhang Z, Ciais P, Davis SJ, Liu Z, Ott LE. Regional impacts of COVID-19 on carbon dioxide detected worldwide from space. Sci Adv 2021; 7:eabf9415. [PMID: 34731009 PMCID: PMC8565902 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf9415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Activity reductions in early 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic led to unprecedented decreases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Despite their record size, the resulting atmospheric signals are smaller than and obscured by climate variability in atmospheric transport and biospheric fluxes, notably that related to the 2019–2020 Indian Ocean Dipole. Monitoring CO2 anomalies and distinguishing human and climatic causes thus remain a new frontier in Earth system science. We show that the impact of short-term regional changes in fossil fuel emissions on CO2 concentrations was observable from space. Starting in February and continuing through May, column CO2 over many of the world’s largest emitting regions was 0.14 to 0.62 parts per million less than expected in a pandemic-free scenario, consistent with reductions of 3 to 13% in annual global emissions. Current spaceborne technologies are therefore approaching levels of accuracy and precision needed to support climate mitigation strategies with future missions expected to meet those needs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Brad Weir
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - David Crisp
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Christopher W. O’Dell
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Sourish Basu
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Abhishek Chatterjee
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Jana Kolassa
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science and Systems and Applications Incorporated, Lanham, MD, USA
| | - Tomohiro Oda
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- The Earth from Space Institute (EfSI), Universities Space Research Association, 7178 Columbia Gateway Dr, Columbia, MD 21046, USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, 4254 Stadium Dr, College Park, MD 20742, USA
- Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan
| | - Steven Pawson
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, 4254 Stadium Dr, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Steven J. Davis
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Zhu Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Lesley E. Ott
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Wang S, Zhang Y, Ju W, Chen JM, Cescatti A, Sardans J, Janssens IA, Wu M, Berry JA, Campbell JE, Fernández-Martínez M, Alkama R, Sitch S, Smith WK, Yuan W, He W, Lombardozzi D, Kautz M, Zhu D, Lienert S, Kato E, Poulter B, Sanders TGM, Krüger I, Wang R, Zeng N, Tian H, Vuichard N, Jain AK, Wiltshire A, Goll DS, Peñuelas J. Response to Comments on "Recent global decline of CO 2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis". Science 2021; 373:eabg7484. [PMID: 34554812 DOI: 10.1126/science.abg7484] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
[Figure: see text].
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Songhan Wang
- International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.,Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
| | - Yongguang Zhang
- International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.,Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China.,Huangshan Park Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, China
| | - Weimin Ju
- International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.,Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
| | - Jing M Chen
- International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.,Department of Geography and Planning, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Jordi Sardans
- CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra 08193, Catalonia, Spain.,CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Ivan A Janssens
- Department of Biology, Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Mousong Wu
- International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.,Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
| | - Joseph A Berry
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - J Elliott Campbell
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.,Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| | - Marcos Fernández-Martínez
- Department of Biology, Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Ramdane Alkama
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Stephen Sitch
- Department of Biology, Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium.,College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - William K Smith
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Wenping Yuan
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Center for Monsoon and Environment Research, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wei He
- International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.,Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
| | - Danica Lombardozzi
- Terrestrial Sciences Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Markus Kautz
- Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Dan Zhu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Sebastian Lienert
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | | | | | - Inken Krüger
- Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems, 16225 Eberswalde, Germany
| | - Rong Wang
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Ning Zeng
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
| | - Nicolas Vuichard
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
| | - Andy Wiltshire
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Daniel S Goll
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.,Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Josep Peñuelas
- CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra 08193, Catalonia, Spain.,CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Catalonia, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
Knox SH, Bansal S, McNicol G, Schafer K, Sturtevant C, Ueyama M, Valach AC, Baldocchi D, Delwiche K, Desai AR, Euskirchen E, Liu J, Lohila A, Malhotra A, Melling L, Riley W, Runkle BRK, Turner J, Vargas R, Zhu Q, Alto T, Fluet-Chouinard E, Goeckede M, Melton JR, Sonnentag O, Vesala T, Ward E, Zhang Z, Feron S, Ouyang Z, Alekseychik P, Aurela M, Bohrer G, Campbell DI, Chen J, Chu H, Dalmagro HJ, Goodrich JP, Gottschalk P, Hirano T, Iwata H, Jurasinski G, Kang M, Koebsch F, Mammarella I, Nilsson MB, Ono K, Peichl M, Peltola O, Ryu Y, Sachs T, Sakabe A, Sparks JP, Tuittila ES, Vourlitis GL, Wong GX, Windham-Myers L, Poulter B, Jackson RB. Identifying dominant environmental predictors of freshwater wetland methane fluxes across diurnal to seasonal time scales. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:3582-3604. [PMID: 33914985 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2020] [Accepted: 12/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH4 ) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. We used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by ~17 ± 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 ± 16 and 5 ± 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH4 . At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH4 emissions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sara H Knox
- Department of Geography, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Sheel Bansal
- Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Jamestown, ND, USA
| | - Gavin McNicol
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Karina Schafer
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Rutgers University Newark, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Cove Sturtevant
- National Ecological Observatory Network, Battelle, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Masahito Ueyama
- Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Sakai, Japan
| | - Alex C Valach
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Dennis Baldocchi
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Kyle Delwiche
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Ankur R Desai
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Eugenie Euskirchen
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
| | - Jinxun Liu
- Western Geographic Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, CA, USA
| | - Annalea Lohila
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Climate System Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Avni Malhotra
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Lulie Melling
- Sarawak Tropical Peat Research Institute, Sarawak, Malaysia
| | - William Riley
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Benjamin R K Runkle
- Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, USA
| | - Jessica Turner
- Freshwater and Marine Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Rodrigo Vargas
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA
| | - Qing Zhu
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Tuula Alto
- Climate System Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Mathias Goeckede
- Department of Biogeochemical Signals, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
| | - Joe R Melton
- Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Oliver Sonnentag
- Département de Géographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Timo Vesala
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Yugra State University, Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia
| | - Eric Ward
- Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Lafayette, LA, USA
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Sarah Feron
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Physics, University of Santiago, Santiago de Chile, Chile
| | - Zutao Ouyang
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | - Mika Aurela
- Climate System Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Gil Bohrer
- Department of Civil, Environmental & Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | | | - Jiquan Chen
- Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, & Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Housen Chu
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Pia Gottschalk
- GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Takashi Hirano
- Research Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Hiroki Iwata
- Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Japan
| | | | - Minseok Kang
- National Center for Agro Meteorology, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Ivan Mammarella
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mats B Nilsson
- Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Keisuke Ono
- Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Matthias Peichl
- Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Olli Peltola
- Climate System Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Youngryel Ryu
- Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Torsten Sachs
- GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Jed P Sparks
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | | | | | - Guan X Wong
- Sarawak Tropical Peat Research Institute, Sarawak, Malaysia
| | | | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Abstract
A new special collection invites papers on a new era of remote sensing missions and instruments that will provide insights into human and climate driven changes on planet Earth.
Collapse
|
26
|
Wang J, Quan Q, Chen W, Tian D, Ciais P, Crowther TW, Mack MC, Poulter B, Tian H, Luo Y, Wen X, Yu G, Niu S. Increased CO 2 emissions surpass reductions of non-CO 2 emissions more under higher experimental warming in an alpine meadow. Sci Total Environ 2021; 769:144559. [PMID: 33485199 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144559] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2020] [Revised: 11/21/2020] [Accepted: 12/13/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
It is well documented that warming can accelerate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, further inducing a positive feedback and reinforcing future climate warming. However, how different kinds of GHGs respond to various warming magnitudes remains largely unclear, especially in the cold regions that are more sensitive to climate warming. Here, we concurrently measured carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes and their total balance in an alpine meadow in response to three levels of warming (ambient, +1.5 °C, +3.0 °C). We found warming-induced increases in CH4 uptake, decreases in N2O emissions and increases in CO2 emissions at the annual basis. Expressed as CO2-equivalents with a global warming potential of 100 years (GWP100), the enhancement of CH4 uptake and reduction of N2O emissions offset only 9% of the warming-induced increase in CO2 emissions for 1.5 °C warming, and only 7% for 3.0 °C warming. CO2 emissions were strongly stimulated, leading to a significantly positive feedback to climate system, for 3.0 °C warming but less for 1.5 °C warming. The warming with 3.0 °C altered the total GHG balance mainly by stimulating CO2 emissions in the non-growing season due to warmer soil temperatures, longer unfrozen period, and increased soil water content. The findings provide an empirical evidence that warming beyond global 2 °C target can trigger a positive GHG-climate feedback and highlight the contribution from non-growing season to this positive feedback loop in cold ecosystems.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jinsong Wang
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; Center for Ecosystem Science and Society and the Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
| | - Quan Quan
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China
| | - Weinan Chen
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China
| | - Dashuan Tian
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environnement (LSCE), CEA CNRS UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Thomas W Crowther
- Institute of Integrative Biology, Department of Environment Systems Science, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Michelle C Mack
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society and the Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
| | | | - Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
| | - Yiqi Luo
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society and the Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
| | - Xuefa Wen
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China
| | - Guirui Yu
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China
| | - Shuli Niu
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China.
| |
Collapse
|
27
|
Chang KY, Riley WJ, Knox SH, Jackson RB, McNicol G, Poulter B, Aurela M, Baldocchi D, Bansal S, Bohrer G, Campbell DI, Cescatti A, Chu H, Delwiche KB, Desai AR, Euskirchen E, Friborg T, Goeckede M, Helbig M, Hemes KS, Hirano T, Iwata H, Kang M, Keenan T, Krauss KW, Lohila A, Mammarella I, Mitra B, Miyata A, Nilsson MB, Noormets A, Oechel WC, Papale D, Peichl M, Reba ML, Rinne J, Runkle BRK, Ryu Y, Sachs T, Schäfer KVR, Schmid HP, Shurpali N, Sonnentag O, Tang ACI, Torn MS, Trotta C, Tuittila ES, Ueyama M, Vargas R, Vesala T, Windham-Myers L, Zhang Z, Zona D. Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH 4 emissions. Nat Commun 2021; 12:2266. [PMID: 33859182 PMCID: PMC8050324 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22452-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2020] [Accepted: 03/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Wetland methane (CH4) emissions ([Formula: see text]) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, [Formula: see text] projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent [Formula: see text] temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that [Formula: see text] are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between [Formula: see text] and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between [Formula: see text] and temperature, suggesting larger [Formula: see text] sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH4 production are thus needed to improve global CH4 budget assessments.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kuang-Yu Chang
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
| | - William J Riley
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
| | - Sara H Knox
- Department of Geography, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Gavin McNicol
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Mika Aurela
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Dennis Baldocchi
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Sheel Bansal
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA
| | - Gil Bohrer
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | | | | | - Housen Chu
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Kyle B Delwiche
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Ankur R Desai
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Eugenie Euskirchen
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology, Fairbanks, AK, USA
| | - Thomas Friborg
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen K, Denmark
| | | | - Manuel Helbig
- School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
- Département de Géographie & Centre d'Études Nordiques, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Kyle S Hemes
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Takashi Hirano
- Graduate School of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Hiroki Iwata
- Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Japan
| | - Minseok Kang
- National Center for AgroMeteorology, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Trevor Keenan
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Ken W Krauss
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Lafayette, LA, USA
| | - Annalea Lohila
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
- Institute for Atmosphere and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsink, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ivan Mammarella
- Institute for Atmosphere and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsink, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Bhaskar Mitra
- Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | - Akira Miyata
- Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Mats B Nilsson
- Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Asko Noormets
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | - Walter C Oechel
- Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Dario Papale
- DIBAF, Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Largo dell'Università, Viterbo, Italy
| | - Matthias Peichl
- Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Michele L Reba
- United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Delta Water Management Research Service, Jonesboro, AR, USA
| | - Janne Rinne
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Benjamin R K Runkle
- Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, USA
| | - Youngryel Ryu
- Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Torsten Sachs
- GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Karina V R Schäfer
- Department of Biological Sciences, Rutgers University Newark, Newark, NJ, USA
| | - Hans Peter Schmid
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Narasinha Shurpali
- Production Systems, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Maaninka, Finland
| | - Oliver Sonnentag
- Département de Géographie & Centre d'Études Nordiques, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | | | - Margaret S Torn
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Carlo Trotta
- DIBAF, Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Largo dell'Università, Viterbo, Italy
- Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, CMCC IAFES, Viterbo, Italy
| | | | - Masahito Ueyama
- Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Rodrigo Vargas
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA
| | - Timo Vesala
- Institute for Atmosphere and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsink, Helsinki, Finland
- Institute for Atmosphere and Earth System Research, Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Zhen Zhang
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Donatella Zona
- Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| |
Collapse
|
28
|
Emmett KD, Renwick KM, Poulter B. Adapting a dynamic vegetation model for regional biomass, plant biogeography, and fire modeling in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: Evaluating LPJ-GUESS-LMfireCF. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
|
29
|
Fer I, Gardella AK, Shiklomanov AN, Campbell EE, Cowdery EM, De Kauwe MG, Desai A, Duveneck MJ, Fisher JB, Haynes KD, Hoffman FM, Johnston MR, Kooper R, LeBauer DS, Mantooth J, Parton WJ, Poulter B, Quaife T, Raiho A, Schaefer K, Serbin SP, Simkins J, Wilcox KR, Viskari T, Dietze MC. Beyond ecosystem modeling: A roadmap to community cyberinfrastructure for ecological data-model integration. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:13-26. [PMID: 33075199 PMCID: PMC7756391 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2020] [Accepted: 09/16/2020] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
In an era of rapid global change, our ability to understand and predict Earth's natural systems is lagging behind our ability to monitor and measure changes in the biosphere. Bottlenecks to informing models with observations have reduced our capacity to fully exploit the growing volume and variety of available data. Here, we take a critical look at the information infrastructure that connects ecosystem modeling and measurement efforts, and propose a roadmap to community cyberinfrastructure development that can reduce the divisions between empirical research and modeling and accelerate the pace of discovery. A new era of data-model integration requires investment in accessible, scalable, and transparent tools that integrate the expertise of the whole community, including both modelers and empiricists. This roadmap focuses on five key opportunities for community tools: the underlying foundations of community cyberinfrastructure; data ingest; calibration of models to data; model-data benchmarking; and data assimilation and ecological forecasting. This community-driven approach is a key to meeting the pressing needs of science and society in the 21st century.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Istem Fer
- Finnish Meteorological InstituteHelsinkiFinland
| | - Anthony K. Gardella
- Department of Earth and EnvironmentBoston UniversityBostonMAUSA
- School for Environment and SustainabilityUniversity of MichiganAnn ArborMIUSA
| | | | | | | | - Martin G. De Kauwe
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate ExtremesSydneyNSWAustralia
- Climate Change Research CentreUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
- Evolution & Ecology Research CentreUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNSWAustralia
| | - Ankur Desai
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWIUSA
| | | | - Joshua B. Fisher
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | | | - Forrest M. Hoffman
- Computational Earth Sciences Group and Climate Change Science InstituteOak Ridge National LaboratoryOak RidgeTNUSA
- Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of TennesseeKnoxvilleTNUSA
| | - Miriam R. Johnston
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary BiologyHarvard UniversityCambridgeMAUSA
| | - Rob Kooper
- NCSA (National Center for Supercomputing Applications)University of Illinois at Urbana ChampaignUrbanaILUSA
| | - David S. LeBauer
- College of Agriculture and Life SciencesUniversity of ArizonaTucsonAZUSA
| | | | - William J. Parton
- Natural Resource Ecology LaboratoryColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory (618)NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMDUSA
| | - Tristan Quaife
- UK National Centre for Earth Observation and Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Ann Raiho
- Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology DepartmentColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Kevin Schaefer
- National Snow and Ice Data CenterCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental SciencesUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCOUSA
| | - Shawn P. Serbin
- Brookhaven National LaboratoryEnvironmental and Climate Sciences DepartmentUptonNYUSA
| | | | - Kevin R. Wilcox
- Ecosystem Science and ManagementUniversity of WyomingLaramieWYUSA
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
30
|
Rollinson CR, Dawson A, Raiho AM, Williams JW, Dietze MC, Hickler T, Jackson ST, McLachlan J, Jp Moore D, Poulter B, Quaife T, Steinkamp J, Trachsel M. Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity. Ecol Lett 2020; 24:498-508. [PMID: 33377307 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 11/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model-data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Christine R Rollinson
- Center for Tree Science, The Morton Arboretum, 4100 Illinois Route 53, Lisle, IL, 60532, USA
| | - Andria Dawson
- Department of General Education, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta, T3E 6K6, Canada
| | - Ann M Raiho
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Science Center, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53704, USA
| | - Michael C Dietze
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
| | - Thomas Hickler
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt/Main, 60325, Germany.,Department of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Frankfurt/Main, Germany
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- US Geological Survey, Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Centers, Denver, DE, USA.,Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Jason McLachlan
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Science Center, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA
| | - David Jp Moore
- School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | | | - Tristan Quaife
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
| | - Jörg Steinkamp
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt/Main, Germany.,Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
| | - Mathias Trachsel
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53704, USA
| |
Collapse
|
31
|
Wang S, Zhang Y, Ju W, Chen JM, Ciais P, Cescatti A, Sardans J, Janssens IA, Wu M, Berry JA, Campbell E, Fernández-Martínez M, Alkama R, Sitch S, Friedlingstein P, Smith WK, Yuan W, He W, Lombardozzi D, Kautz M, Zhu D, Lienert S, Kato E, Poulter B, Sanders TGM, Krüger I, Wang R, Zeng N, Tian H, Vuichard N, Jain AK, Wiltshire A, Haverd V, Goll DS, Peñuelas J. Recent global decline of CO
2
fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis. Science 2020; 370:1295-1300. [DOI: 10.1126/science.abb7772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 142] [Impact Index Per Article: 35.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2020] [Accepted: 10/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Songhan Wang
- International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
| | - Yongguang Zhang
- International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
- Huangshan Park Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Huangshan, China
| | - Weimin Ju
- International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
| | - Jing M. Chen
- International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
- Department of Geography and Planning, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | - Jordi Sardans
- CSIC, Global ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra 08193, Catalonia, Spain
- CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Ivan A. Janssens
- Department of Biology, Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Mousong Wu
- International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
| | - Joseph A. Berry
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Elliott Campbell
- Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| | - Marcos Fernández-Martínez
- Department of Biology, Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Ramdane Alkama
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - William K. Smith
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Wenping Yuan
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Center for Monsoon and Environment Research, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wei He
- International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
| | - Danica Lombardozzi
- Terrestrial Sciences Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Markus Kautz
- Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Dan Zhu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Sebastian Lienert
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | | | - Tanja G. M. Sanders
- Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems, Alfred-Möller-Str. 1, 16225 Eberswalde, Germany
| | - Inken Krüger
- Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems, Alfred-Möller-Str. 1, 16225 Eberswalde, Germany
| | - Rong Wang
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China
| | - Ning Zeng
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
- LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
| | - Nicolas Vuichard
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Atul K. Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, 105 South Gregory Street, Urbana, IL 61801-3070, USA
| | - Andy Wiltshire
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Vanessa Haverd
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Daniel S. Goll
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Josep Peñuelas
- CSIC, Global ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra 08193, Catalonia, Spain
- CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Catalonia, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
32
|
Tang ACI, Melling L, Stoy PC, Musin KK, Aeries EB, Waili JW, Shimizu M, Poulter B, Hirata R. A Bornean peat swamp forest is a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:6931-6944. [PMID: 32881141 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15332] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2019] [Revised: 06/30/2020] [Accepted: 07/27/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Tropical peat forests are a globally important reservoir of carbon, but little is known about CO2 exchange on an annual basis. We measured CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and tropical peat swamp forest in Sarawak, Malaysia using the eddy covariance technique over 4 years from 2011 to 2014. The CO2 fluxes varied between seasons and years. A small carbon uptake took place during the rainy season at the beginning of 2011, while a substantial net efflux of >600 g C/m2 occurred over a 2 month period in the middle of the dry season. Conversely, the peat ecosystem was a source of carbon during both the dry and rainy seasons in subsequent years and more carbon was lost during the rainy season relative to the dry season. Our results demonstrate that the forest was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere during every year of measurement with annual efflux ranging from 183 to 632 g C m-2 year-1 , noting that annual flux values were sensitive to gap filling methodology. This is in contrast to the typical view of tropical peat forests which must have acted as net C sinks over time scales of centuries to millennia to create the peat deposits. Path analyses revealed that the gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) were primarily affected by vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Results suggest that future increases in VPD could further reduce the C sink strength and result in additional net CO2 losses from this tropical peat swamp forest in the absence of plant acclimation to such changes in atmospheric dryness.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Angela C I Tang
- Sarawak Tropical Peat Research Institute, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia
- Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Lulie Melling
- Sarawak Tropical Peat Research Institute, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia
| | - Paul C Stoy
- Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
- Department of Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Kevin K Musin
- Sarawak Tropical Peat Research Institute, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia
| | - Edward B Aeries
- Sarawak Tropical Peat Research Institute, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia
| | - Joseph W Waili
- Sarawak Tropical Peat Research Institute, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia
| | - Mariko Shimizu
- Civil Engineering Research Institute for Cold Region, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Ryuichi Hirata
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
33
|
Wang K, Wang Y, Wang X, He Y, Li X, Keeling RF, Ciais P, Heimann M, Peng S, Chevallier F, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Buermann W, Arora VK, Haverd V, Jain AK, Kato E, Lienert S, Lombardozzi D, Nabel JEMS, Poulter B, Vuichard N, Wiltshire A, Zeng N, Zhu D, Piao S. Causes of slowing-down seasonal CO 2 amplitude at Mauna Loa. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:4462-4477. [PMID: 32415896 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2019] [Revised: 03/23/2020] [Accepted: 05/06/2020] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing-down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing-down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing-down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land-atmosphere CO2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kai Wang
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yilong Wang
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Xuhui Wang
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yue He
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Xiangyi Li
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Ralph F Keeling
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Martin Heimann
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Shushi Peng
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Frédéric Chevallier
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Wolfgang Buermann
- Institute of Geography, Augsburg University, Augsburg, Germany
- Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Vivek K Arora
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | | | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA
| | | | - Sebastian Lienert
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Danica Lombardozzi
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO, USA
| | | | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Nicolas Vuichard
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | - Ning Zeng
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Dan Zhu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Shilong Piao
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| |
Collapse
|
34
|
Ciais P, Yao Y, Gasser T, Baccini A, Wang Y, Lauerwald R, Peng S, Bastos A, Li W, Raymond PA, Canadell JG, Peters GP, Andres RJ, Chang J, Yue C, Dolman AJ, Haverd V, Hartmann J, Laruelle G, Konings AG, King AW, Liu Y, Luyssaert S, Maignan F, Patra PK, Peregon A, Regnier P, Pongratz J, Poulter B, Shvidenko A, Valentini R, Wang R, Broquet G, Yin Y, Zscheischler J, Guenet B, Goll DS, Ballantyne AP, Yang H, Qiu C, Zhu D. Empirical estimates of regional carbon budgets imply reduced global soil heterotrophic respiration. Natl Sci Rev 2020; 8:nwaa145. [PMID: 34691569 PMCID: PMC8288404 DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwaa145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2020] [Revised: 06/17/2020] [Accepted: 06/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Resolving regional carbon budgets is critical for informing land-based mitigation policy. For nine regions covering nearly the whole globe, we collected inventory estimates of carbon-stock changes complemented by satellite estimates of biomass changes where inventory data are missing. The net land–atmospheric carbon exchange (NEE) was calculated by taking the sum of the carbon-stock change and lateral carbon fluxes from crop and wood trade, and riverine-carbon export to the ocean. Summing up NEE from all regions, we obtained a global ‘bottom-up’ NEE for net land anthropogenic CO2 uptake of –2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 consistent with the independent top-down NEE from the global atmospheric carbon budget during 2000–2009. This estimate is so far the most comprehensive global bottom-up carbon budget accounting, which set up an important milestone for global carbon-cycle studies. By decomposing NEE into component fluxes, we found that global soil heterotrophic respiration amounts to a source of CO2 of 39 PgC yr−1 with an interquartile of 33–46 PgC yr−1—a much smaller portion of net primary productivity than previously reported.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Yitong Yao
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
| | - Thomas Gasser
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg A-2361, Austria
| | | | - Yilong Wang
- The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Ronny Lauerwald
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
- Department Geoscience, Environment & Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles 1050, Belgium
| | - Shushi Peng
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Ana Bastos
- Department für Geographie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, München D-80333, Germany
| | - Wei Li
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Peter A Raymond
- Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Josep G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Glen P Peters
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, Norway
| | - Rob J Andres
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
| | - Jinfeng Chang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
| | - Chao Yue
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
- State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
| | - A Johannes Dolman
- Department of Earth Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Vanessa Haverd
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Jens Hartmann
- Institute for Geology, CEN—Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg D-20146, Germany
| | - Goulven Laruelle
- Department Geoscience, Environment & Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles 1050, Belgium
| | - Alexandra G Konings
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Anthony W King
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
| | - Yi Liu
- School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Sebastiaan Luyssaert
- Department of Ecological Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Fabienne Maignan
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
| | - Prabir K Patra
- Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan
- Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba 263–8522, Japan
| | - Anna Peregon
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
- Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS), Novosibirsk 630090, Russia
- Tuva State University, Republic of Tuva, 667000, Russian
| | - Pierre Regnier
- Department Geoscience, Environment & Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles 1050, Belgium
| | - Julia Pongratz
- Department Geoscience, Environment & Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles 1050, Belgium
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Lab., Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Anatoly Shvidenko
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg A-2361, Austria
| | - Riccardo Valentini
- Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest systems (DIBAF), University of Tuscia, Viterbo 01100, Italy
- RUDN University, Moscow 117198, Russia
| | - Rong Wang
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Grégoire Broquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
| | - Yi Yin
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
| | - Jakob Zscheischler
- Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern 3012, Switzerland
| | - Bertrand Guenet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
| | - Daniel S Goll
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
| | - Ashley-P Ballantyne
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59801, USA
| | - Hui Yang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
| | - Chunjing Qiu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
| | - Dan Zhu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, Gif sur Yvette 91191, France
| |
Collapse
|
35
|
Liu J, Sleeter BM, Zhu Z, Loveland TR, Sohl T, Howard SM, Key CH, Hawbaker T, Liu S, Reed B, Cochrane MA, Heath LS, Jiang H, Price DT, Chen JM, Zhou D, Bliss NB, Wilson T, Sherba J, Zhu Q, Luo Y, Poulter B. Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:3920-3929. [PMID: 32162439 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2019] [Accepted: 02/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Large-scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine-scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large-scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1-km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Shuguang Liu
- Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, China
| | | | - Mark A Cochrane
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Decheng Zhou
- Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | | | | | | | | | - Yiqi Luo
- Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
36
|
Grossiord C, Buckley TN, Cernusak LA, Novick KA, Poulter B, Siegwolf RTW, Sperry JS, McDowell NG. Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit. New Phytol 2020; 226:1550-1566. [PMID: 32064613 DOI: 10.1111/nph.16485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 311] [Impact Index Per Article: 77.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2019] [Accepted: 02/04/2020] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure deficit (VPD). VPD has been identified as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought-induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in 'next-generation' land-surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant- and global-scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long-term projections of climate impacts can be made.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte Grossiord
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne EPFL, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering ENAC, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Thomas N Buckley
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
| | - Lucas A Cernusak
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, Qld, 4814, Australia
| | - Kimberly A Novick
- School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, 47405, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
| | - Rolf T W Siegwolf
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - John S Sperry
- Department of Biology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112, USA
| | - Nate G McDowell
- Earth Systems Science Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 99354, USA
| |
Collapse
|
37
|
McDowell NG, Allen CD, Anderson-Teixeira K, Aukema BH, Bond-Lamberty B, Chini L, Clark JS, Dietze M, Grossiord C, Hanbury-Brown A, Hurtt GC, Jackson RB, Johnson DJ, Kueppers L, Lichstein JW, Ogle K, Poulter B, Pugh TAM, Seidl R, Turner MG, Uriarte M, Walker AP, Xu C. Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world. Science 2020; 368:368/6494/eaaz9463. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz9463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 301] [Impact Index Per Article: 75.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Craig D. Allen
- U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station, Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA
| | - Kristina Anderson-Teixeira
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA 22630, USA
- Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Republic of Panama
| | - Brian H. Aukema
- Department of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Ben Bond-Lamberty
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
| | - Louise Chini
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - James S. Clark
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - Michael Dietze
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Charlotte Grossiord
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Adam Hanbury-Brown
- Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - George C. Hurtt
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Robert B. Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Daniel J. Johnson
- School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Lara Kueppers
- Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
- Division of Climate and Ecosystem Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | | | - Kiona Ogle
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Thomas A. M. Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT Birmingham, UK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT Birmingham, UK
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, 1180 Vienna, Austria
- School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Maria Uriarte
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
| | - Anthony P. Walker
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
| | - Chonggang Xu
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
| |
Collapse
|
38
|
Kondo M, Patra PK, Sitch S, Friedlingstein P, Poulter B, Chevallier F, Ciais P, Canadell JG, Bastos A, Lauerwald R, Calle L, Ichii K, Anthoni P, Arneth A, Haverd V, Jain AK, Kato E, Kautz M, Law RM, Lienert S, Lombardozzi D, Maki T, Nakamura T, Peylin P, Rödenbeck C, Zhuravlev R, Saeki T, Tian H, Zhu D, Ziehn T. State of the science in reconciling top-down and bottom-up approaches for terrestrial CO 2 budget. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:1068-1084. [PMID: 31828914 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2019] [Revised: 11/07/2019] [Accepted: 11/07/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Robust estimates of CO2 budget, CO2 exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: "top-down" atmospheric inversions and "bottom-up" biosphere models. Since the first studies were undertaken, these approaches have shown an increasing level of agreement, but disagreements in some regions still persist, in part because they do not estimate the same quantity of atmosphere-biosphere CO2 exchange. Here, we conducted a thorough comparison of CO2 budgets at multiple scales and from multiple methods to assess the current state of the science in estimating CO2 budgets. Our set of atmospheric inversions and biosphere models, which were adjusted for a consistent flux definition, showed a high level of agreement for global and hemispheric CO2 budgets in the 2000s. Regionally, improved agreement in CO2 budgets was notable for North America and Southeast Asia. However, large gaps between the two methods remained in East Asia and South America. In other regions, Europe, boreal Asia, Africa, South Asia, and Oceania, it was difficult to determine whether those regions act as a net sink or source because of the large spread in estimates from atmospheric inversions. These results highlight two research directions to improve the robustness of CO2 budgets: (a) to increase representation of processes in biosphere models that could contribute to fill the budget gaps, such as forest regrowth and forest degradation; and (b) to reduce sink-source compensation between regions (dipoles) in atmospheric inversion so that their estimates become more comparable. Advancements on both research areas will increase the level of agreement between the top-down and bottom-up approaches and yield more robust knowledge of regional CO2 budgets.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Masayuki Kondo
- Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
| | - Prabir K Patra
- Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
- Department of Environmental Geochemical Cycle Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Science Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Frederic Chevallier
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Josep G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation-Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Ana Bastos
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | | | - Leonardo Calle
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Kazuhito Ichii
- Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Peter Anthoni
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Almut Arneth
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Vanessa Haverd
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation-Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
| | | | - Markus Kautz
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- Department of Forest Health, Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Rachel M Law
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation-Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic., Australia
| | - Sebastian Lienert
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Danica Lombardozzi
- Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Takashi Maki
- Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
| | | | - Philippe Peylin
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | - Ruslan Zhuravlev
- Central Aerological Observatory of Russian Hydromet Service, Moscow, Russia
| | - Tazu Saeki
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
| | - Dan Zhu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Tilo Ziehn
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation-Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic., Australia
| |
Collapse
|
39
|
He Y, Peng S, Liu Y, Li X, Wang K, Ciais P, Arain MA, Fang Y, Fisher JB, Goll D, Hayes D, Huntzinger DN, Ito A, Jain AK, Janssens IA, Mao J, Matteo C, Michalak AM, Peng C, Peñuelas J, Poulter B, Qin D, Ricciuto DM, Schaefer K, Schwalm CR, Shi X, Tian H, Vicca S, Wei Y, Zeng N, Zhu Q. Global vegetation biomass production efficiency constrained by models and observations. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:1474-1484. [PMID: 31560157 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14816] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2019] [Accepted: 08/22/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Plants use only a fraction of their photosynthetically derived carbon for biomass production (BP). The biomass production efficiency (BPE), defined as the ratio of BP to photosynthesis, and its variation across and within vegetation types is poorly understood, which hinders our capacity to accurately estimate carbon turnover times and carbon sinks. Here, we present a new global estimation of BPE obtained by combining field measurements from 113 sites with 14 carbon cycle models. Our best estimate of global BPE is 0.41 ± 0.05, excluding cropland. The largest BPE is found in boreal forests (0.48 ± 0.06) and the lowest in tropical forests (0.40 ± 0.04). Carbon cycle models overestimate BPE, although models with carbon-nitrogen interactions tend to be more realistic. Using observation-based estimates of global photosynthesis, we quantify the global BP of non-cropland ecosystems of 41 ± 6 Pg C/year. This flux is less than net primary production as it does not contain carbon allocated to symbionts, used for exudates or volatile carbon compound emissions to the atmosphere. Our study reveals a positive bias of 24 ± 11% in the model-estimated BP (10 of 14 models). When correcting models for this bias while leaving modeled carbon turnover times unchanged, we found that the global ecosystem carbon storage change during the last century is decreased by 67% (or 58 Pg C).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yue He
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Shushi Peng
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yongwen Liu
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Xiangyi Li
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Kai Wang
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Paris, France
| | - M Altaf Arain
- School of Geography and Earth Sciences and McMaster Centre for Climate Change, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Yuanyuan Fang
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Joshua B Fisher
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Daniel Goll
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Paris, France
| | - Daniel Hayes
- School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA
| | - Deborah N Huntzinger
- School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - Akihiko Ito
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - Ivan A Janssens
- Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Jiafu Mao
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
| | - Campioli Matteo
- Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Anna M Michalak
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Changhui Peng
- Institute of Environment Sciences, Biology Science Department, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
- State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, College of Forestry, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, China
| | - Josep Peñuelas
- CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-UAB, Barcelona, Spain
- CREAF, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Institute on Ecosystems and the Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Dahe Qin
- State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
- National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Daniel M Ricciuto
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
| | - Kevin Schaefer
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Christopher R Schwalm
- Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - Xiaoying Shi
- Institute of Environment Sciences, Biology Science Department, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
| | - Sara Vicca
- Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Yaxing Wei
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
| | - Ning Zeng
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Qiuan Zhu
- Institute of Environment Sciences, Biology Science Department, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
- State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, College of Forestry, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, China
| |
Collapse
|
40
|
El Masri B, Schwalm C, Huntzinger DN, Mao J, Shi X, Peng C, Fisher JB, Jain AK, Tian H, Poulter B, Michalak AM. Carbon and Water Use Efficiencies: A Comparative Analysis of Ten Terrestrial Ecosystem Models under Changing Climate. Sci Rep 2019; 9:14680. [PMID: 31604972 PMCID: PMC6789101 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-50808-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2019] [Accepted: 09/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems carbon and water cycles are tightly coupled through photosynthesis and evapotranspiration processes. The ratios of carbon stored to carbon uptake and water loss to carbon gain are key ecophysiological indicators essential to assess the magnitude and response of the terrestrial plant to the changing climate. Here, we use estimates from 10 terrestrial ecosystem models to quantify the impacts of climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and nitrogen (N) deposition on water use efficiency (WUE), and carbon use efficiency (CUE). We find that across models, WUE increases over the 20th Century particularly due to CO2 fertilization and N deposition and compares favorably to experimental studies. Also, the results show a decrease in WUE with climate for the last 3 decades, in contrasts with up-scaled flux observations that demonstrate a constant WUE. Modeled WUE responds minimally to climate with modeled CUE exhibiting no clear trend across space and time. The divergence between simulated and observationally-constrained WUE and CUE is driven by modeled NPP and autotrophic respiration, nitrogen cycle, carbon allocation, and soil moisture dynamics in current ecosystem models. We suggest that carbon-modeling community needs to reexamine stomatal conductance schemes and the soil-vegetation interactions for more robust modeling of carbon and water cycles.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bassil El Masri
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Murray State University, Murray, KY, 42071, USA.
| | - Christopher Schwalm
- Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, 02540, USA
- School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Deborah N Huntzinger
- School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Jiafu Mao
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, 37831, TN, USA
| | - Xiaoying Shi
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, 37831, TN, USA
| | - Changhui Peng
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montréal, QC, H3C 3J7, Canada
| | - Joshua B Fisher
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, 91109, USA
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, 36849, USA
| | | | - Anna M Michalak
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| |
Collapse
|
41
|
Fu Z, Stoy PC, Poulter B, Gerken T, Zhang Z, Wakbulcho G, Niu S. Maximum carbon uptake rate dominates the interannual variability of global net ecosystem exchange. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:3381-3394. [PMID: 31197940 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2019] [Revised: 06/05/2019] [Accepted: 06/06/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems contribute most of the interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentrations, but processes driving the IAV of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) remain elusive. For a predictive understanding of the global C cycle, it is imperative to identify indicators associated with ecological processes that determine the IAV of NEE. Here, we decompose the annual NEE of global terrestrial ecosystems into their phenological and physiological components, namely maximum carbon uptake (MCU) and release (MCR), the carbon uptake period (CUP), and two parameters, α and β, that describe the ratio between actual versus hypothetical maximum C sink and source, respectively. Using long-term observed NEE from 66 eddy covariance sites and global products derived from FLUXNET observations, we found that the IAV of NEE is determined predominately by MCU at the global scale, which explains 48% of the IAV of NEE on average while α, CUP, β, and MCR explain 14%, 25%, 2%, and 8%, respectively. These patterns differ in water-limited ecosystems versus temperature- and radiation-limited ecosystems; 31% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of CUP in water-limited ecosystems, and 60% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of MCU in temperature- and radiation-limited ecosystems. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model and the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Inter-comparison Project (MsTMIP) models underestimate the contribution of MCU to the IAV of NEE by about 18% on average, and overestimate the contribution of CUP by about 25%. This study provides a new perspective on the proximate causes of the IAV of NEE, which suggest that capturing the variability of MCU is critical for modeling the IAV of NEE across most of the global land surface.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zheng Fu
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Paul C Stoy
- Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
| | - Tobias Gerken
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
| | - Guta Wakbulcho
- Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana
| | - Shuli Niu
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| |
Collapse
|
42
|
Pugh TA, Arneth A, Kautz M, Poulter B, Smith B. Important role of forest disturbances in the global biomass turnover and carbon sinks. Nat Geosci 2019; 12:730-735. [PMID: 31478009 PMCID: PMC6718285 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0427-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Forest disturbances leading to replacement of whole tree stands are a cornerstone of forest dynamics, with drivers including fire, wind-throw, biotic outbreaks and harvest. The frequency of disturbances may change over the next century, impacting the age, composition and biomass of forests. However, the variation in disturbance return time, i.e. the mean interval between disturbance events, across the world's forested biomes remains poorly characterised, hindering quantification of their role in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the global distribution of stand-replacing disturbance return time inferred from satellite-based observations of forest loss. Prescribing this distribution within a vegetation model with a detailed representation of stand structure, we quantify the importance of stand-replacing disturbances for biomass carbon turnover globally over 2001-2014. Return time varied from less than 50 years in heavily-managed temperate ecosystems to over 1000 years in tropical evergreen forests. Stand-replacing disturbances accounted for 12.3% (95% confidence interval, 11.4-13.7%) of annual biomass carbon turnover due to tree mortality globally, and in 44% of forested area biomass stocks are strongly sensitive to changes in disturbance return time. Relatively small shifts in disturbance regimes in these areas would substantially influence the forest carbon sink, that currently limits climate change by offsetting emissions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Thomas A.M. Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, U.K
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, U.K
- Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to T. A. M. Pugh,
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Markus Kautz
- Department of Forest Health, Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg, 79100 Freiburg, Germany
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, U.S.A
| | - Benjamin Smith
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
43
|
Taillie PJ, Moorman CE, Poulter B, Ardón M, Emanuel RE. Decadal-Scale Vegetation Change Driven by Salinity at Leading Edge of Rising Sea Level. Ecosystems 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-019-00382-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
|
44
|
Ciais P, Tan J, Wang X, Roedenbeck C, Chevallier F, Piao SL, Moriarty R, Broquet G, Le Quéré C, Canadell JG, Peng S, Poulter B, Liu Z, Tans P. Five decades of northern land carbon uptake revealed by the interhemispheric CO2 gradient. Nature 2019; 568:221-225. [DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1078-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2016] [Accepted: 01/25/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
45
|
Kolus HR, Huntzinger DN, Schwalm CR, Fisher JB, McKay N, Fang Y, Michalak AM, Schaefer K, Wei Y, Poulter B, Mao J, Parazoo NC, Shi X. Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought's impact on plant productivity. Sci Rep 2019; 9:2758. [PMID: 30808971 PMCID: PMC6391443 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-39373-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2018] [Accepted: 01/23/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0-6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO2.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hannah R Kolus
- School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 4099, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011-5694, USA.
| | - Deborah N Huntzinger
- School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 4099, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011-5694, USA
| | | | - Joshua B Fisher
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, CA, 91109, USA
| | - Nicholas McKay
- School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 4099, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011-5694, USA
| | - Yuanyuan Fang
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Anna M Michalak
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Kevin Schaefer
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Yaxing Wei
- Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
| | - Jiafu Mao
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 37831-6301, USA
| | - Nicholas C Parazoo
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, CA, 91109, USA
| | - Xiaoying Shi
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 37831-6301, USA
| |
Collapse
|
46
|
Babst F, Bouriaud O, Poulter B, Trouet V, Girardin MP, Frank DC. Twentieth century redistribution in climatic drivers of global tree growth. Sci Adv 2019; 5:eaat4313. [PMID: 30746436 PMCID: PMC6357745 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat4313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 114] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2018] [Accepted: 12/06/2018] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Energy and water limitations of tree growth remain insufficiently understood at large spatiotemporal scales, hindering model representation of interannual or longer-term ecosystem processes. By assessing and statistically scaling the climatic drivers from 2710 tree-ring sites, we identified the boreal and temperate land areas where tree growth during 1930-1960 CE responded positively to temperature (20.8 ± 3.7 Mio km2; 25.9 ± 4.6%), precipitation (77.5 ± 3.3 Mio km2; 96.4 ± 4.1%), and other parameters. The spatial manifestation of this climate response is determined by latitudinal and altitudinal temperature gradients, indicating that warming leads to geographic shifts in growth limitations. We observed a significant (P < 0.001) decrease in temperature response at cold-dry sites between 1930-1960 and 1960-1990 CE, and the total temperature-limited area shrunk by -8.7 ± 0.6 Mio km2. Simultaneously, trees became more limited by atmospheric water demand almost worldwide. These changes occurred under mild warming, and we expect that continued climate change will trigger a major redistribution in growth responses to climate.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Flurin Babst
- Dendro Sciences Group, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Department of Ecology, W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Lubicz 46, 31-512 Kraków, Poland
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell St., Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
- Corresponding author.
| | - Olivier Bouriaud
- Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Strada Universitătii 13, Suceava 720229, Romania
| | | | - Valerie Trouet
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell St., Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Martin P. Girardin
- Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Quebec, QC G1V4C7, Canada
- Centre d’étude de la forêt, Université du Québec à Montréal, C.P. 8888, succ. Centre-ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada
| | - David C. Frank
- Dendro Sciences Group, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell St., Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| |
Collapse
|
47
|
|
48
|
Zuidema PA, Poulter B, Frank DC. A Wood Biology Agenda to Support Global Vegetation Modelling. Trends Plant Sci 2018; 23:1006-1015. [PMID: 30209023 DOI: 10.1016/j.tplants.2018.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2018] [Revised: 07/31/2018] [Accepted: 08/03/2018] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Realistic forecasting of forest responses to climate change critically depends on key advancements in global vegetation modelling. Compared with traditional 'big-leaf' models that simulate forest stands, 'next-generation' vegetation models aim to track carbon-, light-, water-, and nutrient-limited growth of individual trees. Wood biology can play an important role in delivering the required knowledge at tissue-to-individual levels, at minute-to-century scales and for model parameterization and benchmarking. We propose a wood biology research agenda that contributes to filling six knowledge gaps: sink versus source limitation, drivers of intra-annual growth, drought impacts, functional wood traits, dynamic biomass allocation, and nutrient cycling. Executing this agenda will expedite model development and increase the ability of models to forecast global change impact on forest dynamics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Pieter A Zuidema
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
| | | | - David C Frank
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E Lowell Street, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| |
Collapse
|
49
|
Bastos A, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Chen C, Mialon A, Wigneron JP, Arora VK, Briggs PR, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Chevallier F, Cheng L, Delire C, Haverd V, Jain AK, Joos F, Kato E, Lienert S, Lombardozzi D, Melton JR, Myneni R, Nabel JEMS, Pongratz J, Poulter B, Rödenbeck C, Séférian R, Tian H, van Eck C, Viovy N, Vuichard N, Walker AP, Wiltshire A, Yang J, Zaehle S, Zeng N, Zhu D. Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 373:rstb.2017.0304. [PMID: 30297465 PMCID: PMC6178442 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr−1 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr−1 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ana Bastos
- Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, Munich D-80333, Germany .,Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
| | - Chi Chen
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Arnaud Mialon
- CESBIO, Université de Toulouse, CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
| | | | - Vivek K Arora
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8W2Y2
| | - Peter R Briggs
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Josep G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Frédéric Chevallier
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Lei Cheng
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, People's Republic of China
| | - Christine Delire
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRM, Unité 3589 CNRS/Meteo-France/Université Fédérale de Toulouse, Av G Coriolis, Toulouse 31057, France
| | - Vanessa Haverd
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
| | - Fortunat Joos
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern CH-3012, Switzerland
| | - Etsushi Kato
- Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
| | - Sebastian Lienert
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern CH-3012, Switzerland
| | - Danica Lombardozzi
- Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80302, USA
| | - Joe R Melton
- Climate Processes Section, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada V8W2Y2
| | - Ranga Myneni
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | | | - Julia Pongratz
- Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, Munich D-80333, Germany.,Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20816, USA
| | | | - Roland Séférian
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRM, Unité 3589 CNRS/Meteo-France/Université Fédérale de Toulouse, Av G Coriolis, Toulouse 31057, France
| | - Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
| | - Christel van Eck
- Department of Geoscience, Environment and Society, CP 160/02, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels 1050, Belgium
| | - Nicolas Viovy
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Nicolas Vuichard
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Anthony P Walker
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
| | | | - Jia Yang
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
| | - Sönke Zaehle
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Ning Zeng
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 100029, USA.,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing 20740, People's Republic of China
| | - Dan Zhu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| |
Collapse
|
50
|
Liu Z, Ballantyne AP, Poulter B, Anderegg WRL, Li W, Bastos A, Ciais P. Precipitation thresholds regulate net carbon exchange at the continental scale. Nat Commun 2018; 9:3596. [PMID: 30185789 PMCID: PMC6125429 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05948-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2018] [Accepted: 08/03/2018] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the sensitivity of ecosystem production and respiration to climate change is critical for predicting terrestrial carbon dynamics. Here we show that the primary control on the inter-annual variability of net ecosystem carbon exchange switches from production to respiration at a precipitation threshold between 750 and 950 mm yr−1 in the contiguous United States. This precipitation threshold is evident across multiple datasets and scales of observation indicating that it is a robust result and provides a new scaling relationship between climate and carbon dynamics. However, this empirical precipitation threshold is not captured by dynamic global vegetation models, which tend to overestimate the sensitivity of production and underestimate the sensitivity of respiration to water availability in more mesic regions. Our results suggest that the short-term carbon balance of ecosystems may be more sensitive to respiration losses than previously thought and that model simulations may underestimate the positive carbon–climate feedbacks associated with respiration. The sensitivity of terrestrial net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) to climate remains a major source of uncertainty. Here, the authors identify a precipitation threshold of between 750-950 mm yr−1 for the contiguous United States, beyond which NEE is regulated by respiration rather than production.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zhihua Liu
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA. .,CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110016, China.
| | - Ashley P Ballantyne
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, 20770, USA
| | | | - Wei Li
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives-CNRS-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Ana Bastos
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives-CNRS-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.,Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Luisenstr. 37, 80333, Munich, Germany
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives-CNRS-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| |
Collapse
|