[Temporal and spatial variations of carbon storage and carbon sink improvement strategy at the district and county level based on PLUS-InVEST model: Taking Yanqing District as an example]

Under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the evolution of the spatiotemporal pattern of carbon storage has recently emerged as a research hotspot. The change in land use and land cover (LULC) is the primary driver of carbon storage changes. Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of LULC and carbon storage at the small scale of district and county level and proposing strategies to improve carbon sink, will contribute to the ecological conservation, restoration and sustainable development of districts or counties. With Yanqing District in Beijing as an example, we calculated carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 based on the InVEST model and used the PLUS model to predict LULC type changes under three scenarios (natural growth, ecological conservation and economic development) from 2020 to 2050. We further predicted the carbon storage and proposed mea-sures to improve carbon sink. The results showed that the key LULC change in Yanqing between 1990 and 2020 were the conversion of 88.9% of grassland to forest, 50.1% of farmland to forest, and 39.5% of cropland to impervious surface. The total carbon storage showed an upward trend, with an increase of 3.34×106 Mg. The spatial distribution of carbon storage presented "high in the northeast, low in the southwest, and high in the mountainous areas, low in the riverine areas." The increase in forest and the decrease in grassland were the main reasons for the increase and decrease in carbon storage, respectively. Between 2020 and 2050, the ecological restoration efforts under the ecological protection scenario increased, and the probability of other LULCs transforming into forest increased, resulting in a 5.8% increase in carbon storage, which had the highest increase and carbon storage under the three scenarios. High-value carbon storage areas were concentrated in the northeast, northwest, and south of Yanqing District, basically corresponding to the mountainous regions of Yanqing with high forest coverage, and the low-value areas generally corresponded to the plains with high development intensity and low forest coverage. We could implement comprehensive ecological protection and restoration measures, including forest and grassland ecosystem protection, water environment ecological restoration, farmland ecological restoration, to promote sustainable development in Yanqing District and to achieve the "dual carbon" goal.

Madagascar's fire regimes challenge global assumptions about landscape degradation

Narratives of landscape degradation are often linked to unsustainable fire use by local communities. Madagascar is a case in point: the island is considered globally exceptional, with its remarkable endemic biodiversity viewed as threatened by unsustainable anthropogenic fire. Yet, fire regimes on Madagascar have not been empirically characterised or globally contextualised. Here, we contribute a comparative approach to determining relationships between regional fire regimes and global patterns and trends, applied to Madagascar using MODIS remote sensing data (2003-2019). Rather than a global exception, we show that Madagascar's fire regimes are similar to 88% of tropical burned area with shared climate and vegetation characteristics, and can be considered a microcosm of most tropical fire regimes. From 2003-2019, landscape-scale fire declined across tropical grassy biomes (17%-44% excluding Madagascar), and on Madagascar at a relatively fast rate (36%-46%). Thus, high tree loss anomalies on the island (1.25-4.77× the tropical average) were not explained by any general expansion of landscape-scale fire in grassy biomes. Rather, tree loss anomalies centred in forests, and could not be explained by landscape-scale fire escaping from savannas into forests. Unexpectedly, the highest tree loss anomalies on Madagascar (4.77×) occurred in environments without landscape-scale fire, where the role of small-scale fires (<21 h [0.21 km² ]) is unknown. While landscape-scale fire declined across tropical grassy biomes, trends in tropical forests reflected important differences among regions, indicating a need to better understand regional variation in the anthropogenic drivers of forest loss and fire risk. Our new understanding of Madagascar's fire regimes offers two lessons with global implications: first, landscape-scale fire is declining across tropical grassy biomes and does not explain high tree loss anomalies on Madagascar. Second, landscape-scale fire is not uniformly associated with tropical forest loss, indicating a need for socio-ecological context in framing new narratives of fire and ecosystem degradation.

Exploring the Effects of Land Use Changes on the Landscape Pattern and Soil Erosion of Western Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020

Accelerated land use and land cover changes affect regional landscape patterns and change the ecological environment, including soil conservation capabilities. This is not conducive to the sustainable development of human society. In this research, we explored the land use change pattern and landscape change pattern in western Hubei from 2000 to 2020. Using the Chinese soil loss equation and stepwise regression, we measure how landscape patterns affect soil erosion under land use and cover changes in western Hubei Province. The results show that average soil erosion in the mountainous areas of western Hubei tended to increase from 2000 to 2010 and decrease from 2010 to 2020; soil erosion was higher in the western than in the eastern part of the study area. The land in areas with high-intensity and low-intensity soil erosion was mainly waterfront/grassland and cropland/forestland, respectively, and the area of moderate to severe soil erosion was greatest when the slope was 10–20°. When the slope exceeded 20°, the soil erosion area of each grade tended to decrease; thus, 20° is the critical slope for soil erosion in the study area. The landscape pattern in mountainous areas changed dramatically from 2000 to 2020. At the landscape level, landscape fragmentation increased and connectivity decreased, but the area of landscape diversity was stable. Soil erosion in western Hubei was positively correlated with the contiguity index, aggregation index and largest patch index but negatively correlated with the Shannon evenness index. The higher the landscape fragmentation and the greater the accumulation of single land-use types, the more severe the soil erosion is, while the higher the landscape connectivity and the richer the landscape diversity, the less severe the soil erosion is. The results can inform regional landscape management and soil conservation research.

Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change and Driving Forces in the Selenga River Basin

The Selenga River basin is an important section of the Sino-Mongolian Economic Corridor. It is an important connecting piece of the Eurasian Continental Bridge and an important part of Northeast Asia. Against the background of the evolution of the geopolitical pattern since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and global warming, based on the land cover data in the Selenga River basin from 1992, 2000, 2009, and 2015, this paper describes the dynamic changes in land use in the basin. Through a logistic model, the driving factors of land cover change were revealed, and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the land cover pattern of 2027. The results showed that (1) from 1992 to 2015, the agricultural population in the Selenga River basin continued to decrease, which led to a reduction in agricultural sown area. The intensification of climate warming and drying had a significant impact on the spatial distribution of crops. Grassland expansion mostly occurred in areas with relatively abundant rainfall, low temperature, and low human activity. (2) The simulation results showed that, according to the current development trend, the construction land area of the Selenga River basin will be slightly expanded in 2027, the area of arable land and grassland will be slightly reduced, and the areas of forest, water/wetland, and bare land will remain stable. In the future, human activities in the basin will increase in the process of the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. Coupled with global warming, the land/cover of the basin will be affected by both man-made and natural disturbances, and attention should be paid to the possible risk of vegetation degradation.

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States

Large-scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine-scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large-scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1-km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO₂ fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.

Largely underestimated carbon emission from land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States

Carbon (C) emission and uptake due to land use and land cover change (LULCC) are the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget primarily due to limited LULCC data and inadequate model capability (e.g., underrepresented agricultural managements). We take the commonly used FAOSTAT-based global Land Use Harmonization data (LUH2) and a new high-resolution multisource harmonized national LULCC database (YLmap) to drive a land ecosystem model (DLEM) in the conterminous United States. We found that recent cropland abandonment and forest recovery may have been overestimated in the LUH2 data derived from national statistics, causing previously reported C emissions from land use have been underestimated due to the definition of cropland and aggregated LULCC signals at coarse resolution. This overestimation leads to a strong C sink (30.3 ± 2.5 Tg C/year) in model simulations driven by LUH2 in the United States during the 1980-2016 period, while we find a moderate C source (13.6 ± 3.5 Tg C/year) when using YLmap. This divergence implies that previous C budget analyses based on the global LUH2 dataset have underestimated C emission in the United States owing to the delineation of suitable cropland and aggregated land conversion signals at coarse resolution which YLmap overcomes. Thus, to obtain more accurate quantification of LULCC-induced C emission and better serve global C budget accounting, it is urgently needed to develop fine-scale country-specific LULCC data to characterize the details of land conversion.

Community structure dynamics and carbon stock change of rehabilitated mangrove forests in Sulawesi, Indonesia

To date, discourse associated with the potential application of "blue carbon" within real-world carbon markets has focused on blue carbon as a mitigation strategy in the context of avoided deforestation (e.g., REDD+). Here, we report structural dynamics and carbon storage gains from mangrove sites that have undergone rehabilitation to ascertain whether reforestation can complement conservation activities and warrant project investment. Replicated sites at two locations with contrasting geomorphic conditions were selected, Tiwoho and Tanakeke on the island of Sulawesi, Indonesia. These locations are representative of high (Tiwoho, deep muds and silty substrates) and low (Tanakeke, shallow, coralline sands) productivity mangrove ecosystems. They share a similar management history of clearing and conversion for aquaculture before restorative activities were undertaken using the practice of Ecological Mangrove Rehabilitation (EMR). Species diversity and mean biomass carbon storage gains after 10 yr of regrowth from the high productivity sites of Tiwoho (49.2 ± 9.1 Mg C·ha^-1 ·yr^-1 ) are already almost of one-third of mean biomass stocks exhibited by mature forests (167.8 ± 30.3 Mg C·ha^-1 ·yr^-1 ). Tiwoho's EMR sites, on average, will have offset all biomass C that was initially lost through conversion within the next 11 yr, a finding in marked contrast to the minimal carbon gains observed on the low productivity, low diversity, coral atoll EMR sites of Tanakeke (1.1 ± 0.4 Mg C·ha^-1 ·yr^-1 ). These findings highlight the importance of geomorphic and biophysical site selection if the primary purpose of EMR is intended to maximize carbon sequestration gains.

Distinct Influences of Land Cover and Land Management on Seasonal Climate

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change is primarily represented in climate model simulations through prescribed transitions from natural vegetation to cropland or pasture. However, recent studies have demonstrated that land management practices, especially irrigation, have distinct climate impacts. Here we disentangle the seasonal climate impacts of land cover change and irrigation across areas of high agricultural intensity using climate simulations with three different land surface scenarios: (1) natural vegetation cover/no irrigation, (2) year 2000 crop cover/no irrigation, and (3) year 2000 crop cover and irrigation rates. We find that irrigation substantially amplifies land cover-induced climate impacts but has opposing effects across certain regions. Irrigation mostly causes surface cooling, which substantially amplifies land cover change-induced cooling in most regions except over Central, West, and South Asia, where it reverses land cover change-induced warming. Despite increases in net surface radiation in some regions, this cooling is associated with enhancement of latent relative to sensible heat fluxes by irrigation. Similarly, irrigation substantially enhances the wetting influence of land cover change over several regions including West Asia and the Mediterranean. The most notable contrasting impacts of these forcings on precipitation occur over South Asia, where irrigation offsets the wetting influence of land cover during the monsoon season. Differential changes in regional circulations and moist static energy induced by these forcings contribute to their precipitation impacts and are associated with differential changes in surface and tropospheric temperature gradients and moisture availability. These results emphasize the importance of including irrigation forcing to evaluate the combined impacts of land surface changes for attributing historical climatic changes and managing future impacts.

[Impacts of land use change on ecosystem services in the agricultural area of North China Plain: A case study of Shangqiu City, Henan Province, China.]

Under the rapid urbanization, quantitatively assessing the impacts of land use and cover change (LUCC) on ecosystem service is of great significance for regional ecological environment construction. Based on the land use maps of Shangqiu City (as the typical agricultural area of North China Plain) in the year of 1990, 2005 and 2015, the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use and ecosystem service were analyzed, and the impacts of LUCC on ecosystem services was quantified with the impact assessment model. The results showed that, from 1990 to 2015, farmland and construction land area, which covered more than 95% of the total area of the research area, changed the most in quantity as -104.38 and 201.59 km² respectively, while forestland, grassland and water area changed the most by 79.3%, -73.7% and -24.2%, respectively. The total value of ecosystem service continuously decreased by 1.005 billion yuan, among which the value of hydrolo-gical regulation service suffered the most. The value of ecosystem service (ESV) presented an increasing trend in the west and a decreasing trend in the east. Extending from the center of the city to the outside, the value of ecosystem services was "high-low-high" in the east to west direction. The rate of farmland and water area contributed more than 95% to the total ecosystem service value, which had the greatest impact. The main drivers for the changes of land use and ESV in Shangqiu were population pressure, economic growth, regional policy, and urban planning. In the urban and rural development planning of Shangqiu City, more attention should be paid to the protection of na-tural resources and rational adjustment of the land use structure to realize sustainable development based on the harmony of economy, society and environment.

Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Qinghai Lake Region of the Tibetan Plateau and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services

Exploration of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and its impacts on ecosystem services in Tibetan plateau is valuable for landscape and environmental conservation. In this study, we conduct spatial analysis on empirical land use and land cover data in the Qinghai Lake region for 1990, 2000, and 2010 and simulate land cover patterns for 2020. We then evaluate the impacts of LULCC on ecosystem service value (ESV), and analyze the sensitivity of ESV to LULCC to identify the ecologically sensitive area. Our results indicate that, from 1990 to 2010, the area of forest and grassland increased while the area of unused land decreased. Simulation results suggest that the area of grassland and forest will continue to increase and the area of cropland and unused land will decrease for 2010–2020. The ESV in the study area increased from 694.50 billion Yuan in 1990 to 714.28 billion Yuan in 2000, and to 696.72 billion Yuan in 2020. Hydrology regulation and waste treatment are the top two ecosystem services in this region. The towns surrounding the Qinghai Lake have high ESVs, especially in the north of the Qinghai Lake. The towns with high ESV sensitivity to LULCC are located in the northwest, while the towns in the north of the Qinghai Lake experienced substantial increase in sensitivity index from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020, especially for three regulation services and aesthetic landscape provision services.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

This paper provides a comparative analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) changes among three study areas with different biophysical environments in the Brazilian Amazon at multiple scales, from per-pixel, polygon, census sector, to study area. Landsat images acquired in the years of 1990/1991, 1999/2000, and 2008/2010 were used to examine LULC change trajectories with the post-classification comparison approach. A classification system composed of six classes - forest, savanna, other-vegetation (secondary succession and plantations), agro-pasture, impervious surface, and water, was designed for this study. A hierarchical-based classification method was used to classify Landsat images into thematic maps. This research shows different spatiotemporal change patterns, composition and rates among the three study areas and indicates the importance of analyzing LULC change at multiple scales. The LULC change analysis over time for entire study areas provides an overall picture of change trends, but detailed change trajectories and their spatial distributions can be better examined at a per-pixel scale. The LULC change at the polygon scale provides the information of the changes in patch sizes over time, while the LULC change at census sector scale gives new insights on how human-induced activities (e.g., urban expansion, roads, and land use history) affect LULC change patterns and rates. This research indicates the necessity to implement change detection at multiple scales for better understanding the mechanisms of LULC change patterns and rates.

AGRO-ECOLOGICAL DRIVERS OF RURAL OUT-MIGRATION TO THE MAYA BIOSPHERE RESERVE, GUATEMALA

Migration necessarily precedes environmental change in the form of deforestation and soil degradation in tropical agricultural frontiers. But what environmental factors may contribute to these migration streams in the first place? Identifying environmental characteristics related to this process is crucial for understanding how environmental change and migration may form recurrent feedback loops. Further understanding this process could be useful for developing policies to reduce both environmentally induced migration from origin areas and also to palliate significant environmental change unleashed by settler deforestation in destination areas. Evidently, apprehending this holistic process cannot be approached only from the destination since this ignores environmental and other antecedents to rural out-migration. This paper presents data from surveys conducted in areas of high out-migration to the agricultural frontier in northern Guatemala. Results suggest that land scarcity and degradation in origin communities are linked to out-migration in general and to the forest frontier of northern Guatemala in particular.