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Pereira HM, Martins IS, Rosa IMD, Kim H, Leadley P, Popp A, van Vuuren DP, Hurtt G, Quoss L, Arneth A, Baisero D, Bakkenes M, Chaplin-Kramer R, Chini L, Di Marco M, Ferrier S, Fujimori S, Guerra CA, Harfoot M, Harwood TD, Hasegawa T, Haverd V, Havlík P, Hellweg S, Hilbers JP, Hill SLL, Hirata A, Hoskins AJ, Humpenöder F, Janse JH, Jetz W, Johnson JA, Krause A, Leclère D, Matsui T, Meijer JR, Merow C, Obersteiner M, Ohashi H, De Palma A, Poulter B, Purvis A, Quesada B, Rondinini C, Schipper AM, Settele J, Sharp R, Stehfest E, Strassburg BBN, Takahashi K, Talluto MV, Thuiller W, Titeux N, Visconti P, Ware C, Wolf F, Alkemade R. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. Science 2024; 384:458-465. [PMID: 38662818 DOI: 10.1126/science.adn3441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 03/28/2024] [Indexed: 05/04/2024]
Abstract
Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henrique M Pereira
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- BIOPOLIS, CIBIO/InBIO, Universidade do Porto, Vairão 4485-661, Portugal
| | - Inês S Martins
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Isabel M D Rosa
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- Kenvue Portugal, JNTL Consumer Health Ltd, Porto Salvo 2740-262, Portugal
| | - HyeJin Kim
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Paul Leadley
- Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Gif-sur-Yvette 91190, France
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany
- Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen D-37213, Germany
| | - Detlef P van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht 3584 CB, Netherlands
| | - George Hurtt
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Luise Quoss
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany
| | - Daniele Baisero
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy
- KBA Secretariat, BirdLife International, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Michel Bakkenes
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
| | - Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Louise Chini
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy
| | | | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Katsura Campus, Kyoto University, Kyoto-city 615-8540, Japan
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Carlos A Guerra
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Universidade de Coimbra, Coimbra 3004-530, Portugal
| | - Michael Harfoot
- United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Thomas D Harwood
- CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
- Ritsumeikan University, Shiga 525-8577, Japan
| | | | - Petr Havlík
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Stefanie Hellweg
- Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich 8093, Switzerland
| | - Jelle P Hilbers
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Radboud University, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Nijmegen 6500 GL, Netherlands
| | - Samantha L L Hill
- United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Akiko Hirata
- Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
| | - Andrew J Hoskins
- CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
- James Cook University, Townsville, 4811 Queensland, Australia
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany
| | - Jan H Janse
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen 6700AB, Netherlands
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Justin A Johnson
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany
- Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Freising 85354, Germany
| | - David Leclère
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Tetsuya Matsui
- Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
| | - Johan R Meijer
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
| | - Cory Merow
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
| | - Michael Obersteiner
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
| | - Haruka Ohashi
- Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
| | - Adriana De Palma
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Benjamin Quesada
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany
- "Interactions Climate-Ecosystems (ICE)" Research Group, Earth System Science Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá DC 63B-48, Colombia
| | - Carlo Rondinini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy
| | - Aafke M Schipper
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Radboud University, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Nijmegen 6500 GL, Netherlands
| | - Josef Settele
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems, Halle 06210, Germany
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Laguna 4031, Philippines
| | - Richard Sharp
- Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
| | - Bernardo B N Strassburg
- re.green, Rio de Janeiro 22470-060, Brazil
- Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, Brazil
| | - Kiyoshi Takahashi
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Matthew V Talluto
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck 6020, Austria
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, LECA, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Grenoble F-38000, France
| | - Nicolas Titeux
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems, Halle 06210, Germany
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg
| | - Piero Visconti
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London C1E6BT, UK
| | | | - Florian Wolf
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany
| | - Rob Alkemade
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands
- Earth System and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen 6708PB Netherlands
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2
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Gonzalez A, Vihervaara P, Balvanera P, Bates AE, Bayraktarov E, Bellingham PJ, Bruder A, Campbell J, Catchen MD, Cavender-Bares J, Chase J, Coops N, Costello MJ, Czúcz B, Delavaud A, Dornelas M, Dubois G, Duffy EJ, Eggermont H, Fernandez M, Fernandez N, Ferrier S, Geller GN, Gill M, Gravel D, Guerra CA, Guralnick R, Harfoot M, Hirsch T, Hoban S, Hughes AC, Hugo W, Hunter ME, Isbell F, Jetz W, Juergens N, Kissling WD, Krug CB, Kullberg P, Le Bras Y, Leung B, Londoño-Murcia MC, Lord JM, Loreau M, Luers A, Ma K, MacDonald AJ, Maes J, McGeoch M, Mihoub JB, Millette KL, Molnar Z, Montes E, Mori AS, Muller-Karger FE, Muraoka H, Nakaoka M, Navarro L, Newbold T, Niamir A, Obura D, O'Connor M, Paganini M, Pelletier D, Pereira H, Poisot T, Pollock LJ, Purvis A, Radulovici A, Rocchini D, Roeoesli C, Schaepman M, Schaepman-Strub G, Schmeller DS, Schmiedel U, Schneider FD, Shakya MM, Skidmore A, Skowno AL, Takeuchi Y, Tuanmu MN, Turak E, Turner W, Urban MC, Urbina-Cardona N, Valbuena R, Van de Putte A, van Havre B, Wingate VR, Wright E, Torrelio CZ. Author Correction: A global biodiversity observing system to unite monitoring and guide action. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:2173. [PMID: 37985899 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02263-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Gonzalez
- Department of Biology, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
| | | | - Patricia Balvanera
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad (IIES), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Mexico
| | - Amanda E Bates
- Biology Department, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Elisa Bayraktarov
- EcoCommons Australia, Research, Specialised and Data Foundations, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Andreas Bruder
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Mendrisio, Switzerland
| | - Jillian Campbell
- Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Michael D Catchen
- Department of Biology, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Jonathan Chase
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Halle, Germany
- Department of Computer Sciences, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | - Nicholas Coops
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Mark J Costello
- Faculty of Biosciences and Aquaculture, Nord Universitet, Bodø, Norway
| | - Bálint Czúcz
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim, Norway
| | | | - Maria Dornelas
- Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
- Guia Marine Lab, MARE, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Cascais, Portugal
| | - Grégoire Dubois
- Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Emmett J Duffy
- Tennenbaum Marine Observatories Network and MarineGEO program, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, USA
| | - Hilde Eggermont
- Belgian Science Policy Office, Belgian Biodiversity Platform/Biodiversa+, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Miguel Fernandez
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
| | - Nestor Fernandez
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Halle, Germany
- Department of Computer Sciences, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Environment, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Gary N Geller
- NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | | | - Dominique Gravel
- Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada
| | - Carlos A Guerra
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Halle, Germany
- Department of Biology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Robert Guralnick
- Department of Natural History, Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Tim Hirsch
- Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Sean Hoban
- The Center for Tree Science, The Morton Arboretum, Lisle, IL, USA
| | - Alice C Hughes
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | | | - Margaret E Hunter
- US Geological Survey, Wetland & Aquatic Research Center, Sirenia Project, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Forest Isbell
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Norbert Juergens
- Institute of Plant Science and Microbiology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - W Daniel Kissling
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Cornelia B Krug
- bioDISCOVERY, Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Peter Kullberg
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Nature Solutions Unit, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Yvan Le Bras
- Pôle national de données de biodiversité, PatriNat, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Station Marine de Concarneau, Concarneau, France
| | - Brian Leung
- Department of Biology, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Jean-Michel Lord
- The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Michel Loreau
- Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS, Moulis, France
| | | | - Keping Ma
- Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Anna J MacDonald
- Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
| | | | - Melodie McGeoch
- Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, Department of Environment and Genetics, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jean Baptiste Mihoub
- Centre d'Écologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne Université, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CP 135, Paris, France
| | - Katie L Millette
- The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Zsolt Molnar
- Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Enrique Montes
- Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
- Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - Akira S Mori
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | - Hiroyuki Muraoka
- River Basin Research Center, Gifu University, Gifu, Japan
- Biodiversity Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Masahiro Nakaoka
- Akkeshi Marine Station, Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan
| | | | - Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK
| | - Aidin Niamir
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Institute, Frankfurt, Germany
| | | | - Mary O'Connor
- Biodiversity Research Centre and Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | | | - Henrique Pereira
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Halle, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Timothée Poisot
- Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Laura J Pollock
- Department of Biology, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| | - Adriana Radulovici
- The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Duccio Rocchini
- Department of Biological, Geological, and Environmental Science, Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Claudia Roeoesli
- Remote Sensing Laboratories, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Michael Schaepman
- Remote Sensing Laboratories, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Dirk S Schmeller
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, INPT, UPS, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Ute Schmiedel
- Institute of Plant Science and Microbiology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Fabian D Schneider
- NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | | | - Andrew Skidmore
- Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
| | - Andrew L Skowno
- South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch National Botanical Gardens, Cape Town, South Africa
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Yayioi Takeuchi
- Biodiversity Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Mao-Ning Tuanmu
- Thematic Center for Systematics and Biodiversity Informatics, Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Eren Turak
- NSW Department of Environment and Planning, Parramatta, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Woody Turner
- Earth Science Division, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Mark C Urban
- Center of Biological Risk and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
| | - Nicolás Urbina-Cardona
- Facultad de Estudios Ambientales y Rurales, Departamento de Ecología y Territorio, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Ruben Valbuena
- Division of Remote Sensing of Forests, Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Umeå, Sweden
| | - Anton Van de Putte
- Royal Belgian Institute for Naturalsciences, Brussels, Belgium
- Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | | | | | - Elaine Wright
- NZ Department of Conservation, Christchurch, New Zealand
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3
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Gonzalez A, Vihervaara P, Balvanera P, Bates AE, Bayraktarov E, Bellingham PJ, Bruder A, Campbell J, Catchen MD, Cavender-Bares J, Chase J, Coops N, Costello MJ, Czúcz B, Delavaud A, Dornelas M, Dubois G, Duffy EJ, Eggermont H, Fernandez M, Fernandez N, Ferrier S, Geller GN, Gill M, Gravel D, Guerra CA, Guralnick R, Harfoot M, Hirsch T, Hoban S, Hughes AC, Hugo W, Hunter ME, Isbell F, Jetz W, Juergens N, Kissling WD, Krug CB, Kullberg P, Le Bras Y, Leung B, Londoño-Murcia MC, Lord JM, Loreau M, Luers A, Ma K, MacDonald AJ, Maes J, McGeoch M, Mihoub JB, Millette KL, Molnar Z, Montes E, Mori AS, Muller-Karger FE, Muraoka H, Nakaoka M, Navarro L, Newbold T, Niamir A, Obura D, O'Connor M, Paganini M, Pelletier D, Pereira H, Poisot T, Pollock LJ, Purvis A, Radulovici A, Rocchini D, Roeoesli C, Schaepman M, Schaepman-Strub G, Schmeller DS, Schmiedel U, Schneider FD, Shakya MM, Skidmore A, Skowno AL, Takeuchi Y, Tuanmu MN, Turak E, Turner W, Urban MC, Urbina-Cardona N, Valbuena R, Van de Putte A, van Havre B, Wingate VR, Wright E, Torrelio CZ. A global biodiversity observing system to unite monitoring and guide action. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:1947-1952. [PMID: 37620553 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02171-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/26/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Gonzalez
- Department of Biology, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
| | | | - Patricia Balvanera
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad (IIES), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Mexico
| | - Amanda E Bates
- Biology Department, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Elisa Bayraktarov
- EcoCommons Australia, Research, Specialised and Data Foundations, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Andreas Bruder
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Mendrisio, Switzerland
| | - Jillian Campbell
- Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Michael D Catchen
- Department of Biology, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Jonathan Chase
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Halle, Germany
- Department of Computer Sciences, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | - Nicholas Coops
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Mark J Costello
- Faculty of Biosciences and Aquaculture, Nord Universitet, Bodø, Norway
| | - Bálint Czúcz
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim, Norway
| | | | - Maria Dornelas
- Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
- Guia Marine Lab, MARE, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Cascais, Portugal
| | - Grégoire Dubois
- Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Emmett J Duffy
- Tennenbaum Marine Observatories Network and MarineGEO program, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, USA
| | - Hilde Eggermont
- Belgian Science Policy Office, Belgian Biodiversity Platform/Biodiversa+, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Miguel Fernandez
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
| | - Nestor Fernandez
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Halle, Germany
- Department of Computer Sciences, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Environment, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Gary N Geller
- NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | | | - Dominique Gravel
- Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada
| | - Carlos A Guerra
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Halle, Germany
- Department of Biology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Robert Guralnick
- Department of Natural History, Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Tim Hirsch
- Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Sean Hoban
- The Center for Tree Science, The Morton Arboretum, Lisle, IL, USA
| | - Alice C Hughes
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | | | - Margaret E Hunter
- US Geological Survey, Wetland & Aquatic Research Center, Sirenia Project, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Forest Isbell
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Norbert Juergens
- Institute of Plant Science and Microbiology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - W Daniel Kissling
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Cornelia B Krug
- bioDISCOVERY, Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Peter Kullberg
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Nature Solutions Unit, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Yvan Le Bras
- Pôle national de données de biodiversité, PatriNat, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Station Marine de Concarneau, Concarneau, France
| | - Brian Leung
- Department of Biology, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Jean-Michel Lord
- The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Michel Loreau
- Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS, Moulis, France
| | | | - Keping Ma
- Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Anna J MacDonald
- Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
| | | | - Melodie McGeoch
- Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, Department of Environment and Genetics, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jean Baptiste Mihoub
- Centre d'Écologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne Université, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CP 135, Paris, France
| | - Katie L Millette
- The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Zsolt Molnar
- Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Enrique Montes
- Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
- Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - Akira S Mori
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | - Hiroyuki Muraoka
- River Basin Research Center, Gifu University, Gifu, Japan
- Biodiversity Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Masahiro Nakaoka
- Akkeshi Marine Station, Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan
| | | | - Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK
| | - Aidin Niamir
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Institute, Frankfurt, Germany
| | | | - Mary O'Connor
- Biodiversity Research Centre and Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | | | - Henrique Pereira
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Halle, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Timothée Poisot
- Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Laura J Pollock
- Department of Biology, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| | - Adriana Radulovici
- The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Duccio Rocchini
- Department of Biological, Geological, and Environmental Science, Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Claudia Roeoesli
- Remote Sensing Laboratories, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Michael Schaepman
- Remote Sensing Laboratories, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Dirk S Schmeller
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, INPT, UPS, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Ute Schmiedel
- Institute of Plant Science and Microbiology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Fabian D Schneider
- NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | | | - Andrew Skidmore
- Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
| | - Andrew L Skowno
- South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch National Botanical Gardens, Cape Town, South Africa
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Yayioi Takeuchi
- Biodiversity Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Mao-Ning Tuanmu
- Thematic Center for Systematics and Biodiversity Informatics, Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Eren Turak
- NSW Department of Environment and Planning, Parramatta, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Woody Turner
- Earth Science Division, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Mark C Urban
- Center of Biological Risk and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
| | - Nicolás Urbina-Cardona
- Facultad de Estudios Ambientales y Rurales, Departamento de Ecología y Territorio, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Ruben Valbuena
- Division of Remote Sensing of Forests, Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Umeå, Sweden
| | - Anton Van de Putte
- Royal Belgian Institute for Naturalsciences, Brussels, Belgium
- Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | | | | | - Elaine Wright
- NZ Department of Conservation, Christchurch, New Zealand
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4
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Mokany K, Ware C, Harwood TD, Schmidt RK, Ferrier S. Habitat-based biodiversity assessment for ecosystem accounting in the Murray-Darling Basin. Conserv Biol 2022; 36:e13915. [PMID: 35384070 PMCID: PMC9796243 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13915] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2021] [Revised: 01/19/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Understanding how biodiversity is changing over space and time is crucial for well-informed decisions that help retain Earth's biological heritage over the long term. Tracking changes in biodiversity through ecosystem accounting provides this important information in a systematic way and readily enables linking to other relevant environmental and economic data to provide an integrated perspective. We derived biodiversity accounts for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia's largest catchment. We assessed biodiversity change from 2010 to 2015 for all vascular plants, all waterbirds, and 10 focal species. We applied a scalable habitat-based assessment approach that combined expected patterns in the distribution of biodiversity from spatial biodiversity models with a time series of spatially complete data on habitat condition derived from remote sensing. Changes in biodiversity from 2010 to 2015 varied across regions and biodiversity features. For the entire Murray-Darling Basin, the expected persistence of vascular plants increased slightly from 2010 to 2015 (from 86.8% to 87.1%), mean species richness of waterbirds decreased slightly (from 12.5 to 12.3 species), whereas for the focal species the estimated area of habitat increased for 8 species and decreased for 1 species. Regions in the north of the Murray-Darling Basin generally had decreases in biodiversity from 2010 to 2015, whereas in the south biodiversity was stable or increased. Our results demonstrate the benefits of habitat-based biodiversity assessments in providing fully scalable biodiversity accounts across different biodiversity features, consistent with the United Nations System of Environmental Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA) framework.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karel Mokany
- CSIROCanberraAustralian Capital TerritoryAustralia
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5
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Weiskopf SR, Myers BJE, Arce-Plata MI, Blanchard JL, Ferrier S, Fulton EA, Harfoot M, Isbell F, Johnson JA, Mori AS, Weng E, HarmáCˇková ZV, Londoño-Murcia MC, Miller BW, Pereira LM, Rosa IMD. A Conceptual Framework to Integrate Biodiversity, Ecosystem Function, and Ecosystem Service Models. Bioscience 2022; 72:1062-1073. [PMID: 36506699 PMCID: PMC9718641 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biac074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently be implemented globally for systems and taxa with sufficient data. We also propose a trait-based approach involving greater incorporation of biodiversity into ecosystem function models. Pursuing both approaches will provide greater insight into biodiversity and ecosystem services projections. Integrating biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service modeling will enhance policy development to meet global sustainability goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah R Weiskopf
- US Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center, in Reston, Virginia, United States
| | - Bonnie J E Myers
- North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States
| | | | | | - Simon Ferrier
- Land and Water, CSIRO, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | | | - Mike Harfoot
- United Nations Environment Programme–World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
| | - Forest Isbell
- University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States
| | | | | | - Ensheng Weng
- Columbia University and with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, both New York, New York, United States
| | - Zuzana V HarmáCˇková
- Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czechia and with the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Brian W Miller
- US Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Boulder, Colorado, United States
| | - Laura M Pereira
- University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and with the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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6
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Myers BJE, Weiskopf SR, Shiklomanov AN, Ferrier S, Weng E, Casey KA, Harfoot M, Jackson ST, Leidner AK, Lenton TM, Luikart G, Matsuda H, Pettorelli N, Rosa IMD, Ruane AC, Senay GB, Serbin SP, Tittensor DP, Beard TD. A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation. Bioscience 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bonnie J E Myers
- National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, Virginia, United States
| | - Sarah R Weiskopf
- National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, Virginia, United States
| | | | - Simon Ferrier
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Canberra, Australia
| | - Ensheng Weng
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, New York, United States
| | - Kimberly A Casey
- US Geological Survey's National Land Imaging Program, Reston, Virginia, United States
| | - Mike Harfoot
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
| | | | - Allison K Leidner
- NASA Headquarters/Biological Diversity Program, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Timothy M Lenton
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, England, United Kingdom
| | - Gordon Luikart
- University of Montana Flathead Lake Biological Station, Polson, Montana, United States
| | | | - Nathalie Pettorelli
- Institute for Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, England, United Kingdom
| | - Isabel M D Rosa
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Wales, United Kingdom
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, United States
| | - Gabriel B Senay
- US Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation Science Center, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | - Shawn P Serbin
- Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York, United States
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - T Douglas Beard
- National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, Virginia, United States
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7
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De Palma A, Hoskins A, Gonzalez RE, Börger L, Newbold T, Sanchez-Ortiz K, Ferrier S, Purvis A. Annual changes in the Biodiversity Intactness Index in tropical and subtropical forest biomes, 2001-2012. Sci Rep 2021; 11:20249. [PMID: 34642362 PMCID: PMC8511124 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-98811-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2019] [Accepted: 09/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity—rather than of particular taxa—at fine spatial and temporal resolution. One such indicator, the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), estimates how the average abundance of the native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances in the absence of pronounced human impacts. We produced annual maps of modelled BII at 30-arc-second resolution (roughly 1 km at the equator) across tropical and subtropical forested biomes, by combining annual data on land use, human population density and road networks, and statistical models of how these variables affect overall abundance and compositional similarity of plants, fungi, invertebrates and vertebrates. Across tropical and subtropical biomes, BII fell by an average of 1.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2012, with 81 countries seeing an average reduction and 43 an average increase; the extent of primary forest fell by 3.9% over the same period. We did not find strong relationships between changes in BII and countries’ rates of economic growth over the same period; however, limitations in mapping BII in plantation forests may hinder our ability to identify these relationships. This is the first time temporal change in BII has been estimated across such a large region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adriana De Palma
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, SW7 5BD, UK.
| | - Andrew Hoskins
- CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia.,CSIRO Health and Biosecurity, Townsville, Qld, Australia
| | - Ricardo E Gonzalez
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Luca Börger
- Department of Biosciences, University of Swansea, Swansea, SA2 8PP, UK
| | - Tim Newbold
- Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Katia Sanchez-Ortiz
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, SW7 5BD, UK.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK
| | | | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, SW7 5BD, UK.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK
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8
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Hansen AJ, Noble BP, Veneros J, East A, Goetz SJ, Supples C, Watson JEM, Jantz PA, Pillay R, Jetz W, Ferrier S, Grantham HS, Evans TD, Ervin J, Venter O, Virnig ALS. Toward monitoring forest ecosystem integrity within the post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Conserv Lett 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Jaris Veneros
- Ecology Department Montana State University Bozeman Montana USA
| | - Alyson East
- Ecology Department Montana State University Bozeman Montana USA
| | - Scott J. Goetz
- School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | | | - James E. M. Watson
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Patrick A. Jantz
- School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Rajeev Pillay
- Natural Resources and Environmental Studies Institute University of Northern British Columbia Prince George British Columbia Canada
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Yale University New Haven Connecticut USA
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Land and Water Canberra New South Wales Australia
| | - Hedley S. Grantham
- Wildlife Conservation Society Global Conservation Program Bronx New York USA
| | - Thomas D. Evans
- Wildlife Conservation Society Global Conservation Program Bronx New York USA
| | - Jamison Ervin
- United Nations Development Programme New York New York USA
| | - Oscar Venter
- Natural Resources and Environmental Studies Institute University of Northern British Columbia Prince George British Columbia Canada
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9
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Stevenson SL, Watermeyer K, Caggiano G, Fulton EA, Ferrier S, Nicholson E. Matching biodiversity indicators to policy needs. Conserv Biol 2021; 35:522-532. [PMID: 32557845 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2020] [Revised: 05/13/2020] [Accepted: 06/15/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
At the global scale, biodiversity indicators are typically used to monitor general trends, but are rarely implemented with specific purpose or linked directly to decision making. Some indicators are better suited to predicting future change, others are more appropriate for evaluating past actions, but this is seldom made explicit. We developed a conceptual model for assigning biodiversity indicators to appropriate functions based on a common approach used in economics. Using the model, indicators can be classified as leading (indicators that change before the subject of interest, informing preventative actions), coincident (indicators that measure the subject of interest), or lagging (indicators that change after the subject of interest has changed and thus can be used to evaluate past actions). We classified indicators based on ecological theory on biodiversity response times and management objectives in 2 case studies: global species extinction and marine ecosystem collapse. For global species extinctions, indicators of abundance (e.g., the Living Planet Index or biodiversity intactness index) were most likely to respond first, as leading indicators that inform preventative action, while extinction indicators were expected to respond slowly, acting as lagging indicators flagging the need for evaluation. For marine ecosystem collapse, indicators of direct responses to fishing were expected to be leading, while those measuring ecosystem collapse could be lagging. Classification defines an active role for indicators within the policy cycle, creates an explicit link to preventative decision-making, and supports preventative action.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simone L Stevenson
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, VIC, 3125, Australia
| | - Kate Watermeyer
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, VIC, 3125, Australia
| | - Giovanni Caggiano
- Department of Economics, Monash University, Caulfield East, VIC, 3145, Australia
| | - Elizabeth A Fulton
- Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Austral
| | - Simon Ferrier
- Land and Water, CSIRO, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Emily Nicholson
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, VIC, 3125, Australia
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10
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McNellie MJ, Oliver I, Dorrough J, Ferrier S, Newell G, Gibbons P. Reference state and benchmark concepts for better biodiversity conservation in contemporary ecosystems. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:6702-6714. [PMID: 33090598 PMCID: PMC7756865 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2020] [Accepted: 09/14/2020] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Measuring the status and trends of biodiversity is critical for making informed decisions about the conservation, management or restoration of species, habitats and ecosystems. Defining the reference state against which status and change are measured is essential. Typically, reference states describe historical conditions, yet historical conditions are challenging to quantify, may be difficult to falsify, and may no longer be an attainable target in a contemporary ecosystem. We have constructed a conceptual framework to help inform thinking and discussion around the philosophical underpinnings of reference states and guide their application. We characterize currently recognized historical reference states and describe them as Pre-Human, Indigenous Cultural, Pre-Intensification and Hybrid-Historical. We extend the conceptual framework to include contemporary reference states as an alternative theoretical perspective. The contemporary reference state framework is a major conceptual shift that focuses on current ecological patterns and identifies areas with higher biodiversity values relative to other locations within the same ecosystem, regardless of the disturbance history. We acknowledge that past processes play an essential role in driving contemporary patterns of diversity. The specific context for which we design the contemporary conceptual frame is underpinned by an overarching goal-to maximize biodiversity conservation and restoration outcomes in existing ecosystems. The contemporary reference state framework can account for the inherent differences in the diversity of biodiversity values (e.g. native species richness, habitat complexity) across spatial scales, communities and ecosystems. In contrast to historical reference states, contemporary references states are measurable and falsifiable. This 'road map of reference states' offers perspective needed to define and assess the status and trends in biodiversity and habitats. We demonstrate the contemporary reference state concept with an example from south-eastern Australia. Our framework provides a tractable way for policy-makers and practitioners to navigate biodiversity assessments to maximize conservation and restoration outcomes in contemporary ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan J. McNellie
- Department of Planning, Industry and EnvironmentScience, Economics and Insights DivisionWagga WaggaNSWAustralia
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyThe Australian National UniversityActonACTAustralia
| | - Ian Oliver
- Department of Planning, Industry and EnvironmentScience, Economics and Insights DivisionGosfordNSWAustralia
| | - Josh Dorrough
- Department of Planning, Industry and EnvironmentScience, Economics and Insights DivisionMerimbulaNSWAustralia
| | | | - Graeme Newell
- Department of Environment, Land, Water and PlanningArthur Rylah Institute for Environmental ResearchHeidelbergVic.Australia
| | - Philip Gibbons
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyThe Australian National UniversityActonACTAustralia
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11
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Pereira LM, Davies KK, Belder E, Ferrier S, Karlsson‐Vinkhuyzen S, Kim H, Kuiper JJ, Okayasu S, Palomo MG, Pereira HM, Peterson G, Sathyapalan J, Schoolenberg M, Alkemade R, Carvalho Ribeiro S, Greenaway A, Hauck J, King N, Lazarova T, Ravera F, Chettri N, Cheung WWL, Hendriks RJJ, Kolomytsev G, Leadley P, Metzger J, Ninan KN, Pichs R, Popp A, Rondinini C, Rosa I, Vuuren D, Lundquist CJ. Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework. People and Nature 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/pan3.10146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Laura M. Pereira
- Centre for Complex Systems in Transition Stellenbosch University Matieland South Africa
- Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
| | - Kathryn K. Davies
- National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Hamilton New Zealand
| | - Eefje Belder
- Agrosystems Research Wageningen University and Research Wageningen The Netherlands
| | | | | | - HyeJin Kim
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig Leipzig Germany
- Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg Halle (Saale) Germany
| | - Jan J. Kuiper
- Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
| | - Sana Okayasu
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Den Haag The Netherlands
| | - Maria G. Palomo
- Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales Bernardino Rivadavia‐CONICET Buenos Aires Argentina
| | - Henrique M. Pereira
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig Leipzig Germany
- Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg Halle (Saale) Germany
- CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)–InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology) Universidade do Porto Vairão Portugal
| | - Garry Peterson
- Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
| | | | | | - Rob Alkemade
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Den Haag The Netherlands
- Environmental Systems Analyses Group Wageningen University and Research Wageningen The Netherlands
| | | | | | | | - Nicholas King
- Research Unit for Environmental Science & Management North‐West University Potchefstroom South Africa
| | - Tanya Lazarova
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Den Haag The Netherlands
| | - Federica Ravera
- Chair in Agroecology and Food Systems – University of VictoriaCentral University of Catalunya Vic Spain
- Department of Geography University of Girona Girona Spain
| | - Nakul Chettri
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu Nepal
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and FIsheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada
| | - Rob J. J. Hendriks
- Department of Strategy, Knowledge and Innovation Nature‐Inclusive Society GroupMinistry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality The Hague The Netherlands
- Institute for Water and Wetland Research Radboud University Nijmegen The Netherlands
| | - Grigoriy Kolomytsev
- Department of Animal Monitoring and Conservation I.I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology NAS of Ukraine Kyiv Ukraine
| | - Paul Leadley
- Ecologie Systématique Evolution Bâtiment 360Univ. Paris‐Sud, AgroParisTechCNRSUniversité Paris‐Saclay Orsay France
| | - Jean‐Paul Metzger
- Department of Ecology Institute of Biosciences University of Sao Paulo Sao Paulo Brazil
| | | | - Ramon Pichs
- Centre for World Economy Studies (CIEM) Havana Cuba
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany
| | - Carlo Rondinini
- Global Mammal Assessment programme Department of Biology and Biotechnologies Sapienza University of Rome Rome Italy
| | - Isabel Rosa
- School of Natural Sciences Bangor University Bangor UK
| | - Detlef Vuuren
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Den Haag The Netherlands
| | - Carolyn J. Lundquist
- National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Hamilton New Zealand
- Institute of Marine Science University of Auckland Auckland New Zealand
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12
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Rosa IM, Purvis A, Alkemade R, Chaplin-Kramer R, Ferrier S, Guerra CA, Hurtt G, Kim H, Leadley P, Martins IS, Popp A, Schipper AM, van Vuuren D, Pereira HM. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Glob Ecol Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00886] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
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13
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Ferrier S, Hennocq Q, Leboulanger N, Couloigner V, Denoyelle F, Heuzé Y, Khonsari RH. Nasal cavity shape in unilateral choanal atresia and the role of fetal ventilation in facial growth. J Stomatol Oral Maxillofac Surg 2020; 122:135-140. [PMID: 32480047 DOI: 10.1016/j.jormas.2020.05.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2020] [Accepted: 05/19/2020] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The respiratory movements of fetal amniotic fluid areconsidered by certains cleft surgery teams to contribute to the growth of the nasal cavities (NC). To assess this functional hypothesis, we considered a group of patients with unilateral choanal atresia (CA) as a model of unilateral absence of amniotic fluid flux in the NC, and compared their NCs shape to age-matched controls. MATERIAL AND METHODS Three-dimensional reconstructions of NC were performed using Avizo 9.7 (Thermo Fisher Scientific, MA, USA), based on CT-scans of 32 patients with unilateral CA and 96 age- and gender-matched controls. Landmarks were placed on anatomical structures of NC. Procrustes superimpositions and principal component analysis were performed. Anatomically relevant Euclidean distances were computed using the coordinates of selected landmarks - maxillary length, piriform orifice width, choanal width - and tested using multivariate analysis. Growth rates between patients and controls for these distances were screened for correlations. RESULTS The atretic NC was significantly deformed when compared to the control cases: Procrustes distance was 0.28 (P<0.0001). The maxillary length and width of the atretic choana were significantly decreased compared to controls (-2.95mm and -1.35mm respectively, P<0.001). There were no differences in growth rates between CA and controls, except for the choanal width on the atretic side. CONCLUSION NCs in CA were significantly different from controls. More precisely, the maxillary length was significantly reduced in the CA group. There was no other major shape difference between the NC in CA and controls. NC seems to develop despite abnormal fetal ventilation.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Ferrier
- Service d'otorhinolaryngologie et chirurgie cervico-faciale, Hôpital Universitaire Necker-Enfants Malades, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Centre de Référence des Malformations ORL rares MALO, Filière Maladies Rares TeteCou, Université Paris Descartes, Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, 149, rue de Sèvres, 75015 Paris, France.
| | - Q Hennocq
- Service de chirurgie maxillo-faciale et chirurgie plastique, Hôpital Universitaire Necker-Enfants Malades, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Centre de Référence des Fentes et malformations faciales MAFACE, Filière Maladies Rares TeteCou, Université de Paris, Paris, France
| | - N Leboulanger
- Service d'otorhinolaryngologie et chirurgie cervico-faciale, Hôpital Universitaire Necker-Enfants Malades, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Centre de Référence des Malformations ORL rares MALO, Filière Maladies Rares TeteCou, Université Paris Descartes, Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, 149, rue de Sèvres, 75015 Paris, France
| | - V Couloigner
- Service d'otorhinolaryngologie et chirurgie cervico-faciale, Hôpital Universitaire Necker-Enfants Malades, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Centre de Référence des Malformations ORL rares MALO, Filière Maladies Rares TeteCou, Université Paris Descartes, Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, 149, rue de Sèvres, 75015 Paris, France
| | - F Denoyelle
- Service d'otorhinolaryngologie et chirurgie cervico-faciale, Hôpital Universitaire Necker-Enfants Malades, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Centre de Référence des Malformations ORL rares MALO, Filière Maladies Rares TeteCou, Université Paris Descartes, Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, 149, rue de Sèvres, 75015 Paris, France
| | - Y Heuzé
- CNRS, University Bordeaux, MC, PACEA - De la Préhistoire à l'Actuel : Culture, Environnement et Anthropologie, UMR5199, Pessac, France
| | - R H Khonsari
- Service de chirurgie maxillo-faciale et chirurgie plastique, Hôpital Universitaire Necker-Enfants Malades, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Centre de Référence des Fentes et malformations faciales MAFACE, Filière Maladies Rares TeteCou, Université de Paris, Paris, France
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Mokany K, Ferrier S, Harwood TD, Ware C, Di Marco M, Grantham HS, Venter O, Hoskins AJ, Watson JEM. Reconciling global priorities for conserving biodiversity habitat. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:9906-9911. [PMID: 32317385 PMCID: PMC7211919 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1918373117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests that retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-resolution global data on habitat condition and species assemblage turnover to identify Earth's high-value biodiversity habitat. These are areas in better condition than most other locations predicted to have once supported a similar assemblage of species and are found within both intact regions and human-dominated landscapes. However, only 18.6% of this high-value habitat is currently protected globally. Averting permanent biodiversity loss requires clear, spatially explicit targets for retaining these unprotected high-value habitats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karel Mokany
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;
| | - Simon Ferrier
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Thomas D Harwood
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Chris Ware
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Rome, Italy
| | - Hedley S Grantham
- Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, NY 10460
| | - Oscar Venter
- Natural Resources & Environmental Studies Institute, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9, Canada
| | - Andrew J Hoskins
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia
| | - James E M Watson
- Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, NY 10460
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
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15
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Soto-Navarro C, Ravilious C, Arnell A, de Lamo X, Harfoot M, Hill SLL, Wearn OR, Santoro M, Bouvet A, Mermoz S, Le Toan T, Xia J, Liu S, Yuan W, Spawn SA, Gibbs HK, Ferrier S, Harwood T, Alkemade R, Schipper AM, Schmidt-Traub G, Strassburg B, Miles L, Burgess ND, Kapos V. Mapping co-benefits for carbon storage and biodiversity to inform conservation policy and action. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 375:20190128. [PMID: 31983334 PMCID: PMC7017768 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/21/2019] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Integrated high-resolution maps of carbon stocks and biodiversity that identify areas of potential co-benefits for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation can help facilitate the implementation of global climate and biodiversity commitments at local levels. However, the multi-dimensional nature of biodiversity presents a major challenge for understanding, mapping and communicating where and how biodiversity benefits coincide with climate benefits. A new integrated approach to biodiversity is therefore needed. Here, we (a) present a new high-resolution map of global above- and below-ground carbon stored in biomass and soil, (b) quantify biodiversity values using two complementary indices (BIp and BIr) representing proactive and reactive approaches to conservation, and (c) examine patterns of carbon-biodiversity overlap by identifying 'hotspots' (20% highest values for both aspects). Our indices integrate local diversity and ecosystem intactness, as well as regional ecosystem intactness across the broader area supporting a similar natural assemblage of species to the location of interest. The western Amazon Basin, Central Africa and Southeast Asia capture the last strongholds of highest local biodiversity and ecosystem intactness worldwide, while the last refuges for unique biological communities whose habitats have been greatly reduced are mostly found in the tropical Andes and central Sundaland. There is 38 and 5% overlap in carbon and biodiversity hotspots, for proactive and reactive conservation, respectively. Alarmingly, only around 12 and 21% of these proactive and reactive hotspot areas, respectively, are formally protected. This highlights that a coupled approach is urgently needed to help achieve both climate and biodiversity global targets. This would involve (1) restoring and conserving unprotected, degraded ecosystems, particularly in the Neotropics and Indomalaya, and (2) retaining the remaining strongholds of intactness. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- C. Soto-Navarro
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
- Luc Hoffmann Institute, Rue Mauverney 28, 1196 Gland, Switzerland
| | - C. Ravilious
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - A. Arnell
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - X. de Lamo
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - M. Harfoot
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - S. L. L. Hill
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
- Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - O. R. Wearn
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - M. Santoro
- Gamma Remote Sensing, Worbstrasse 225, 3073 Gümligen, Switzerland
| | - A. Bouvet
- CESBIO, Edouard Belin, 31401 Toulouse, France
| | - S. Mermoz
- GlobEO, Avenue Saint-Exupery, 31400 Toulouse, France
| | - T. Le Toan
- CESBIO, Edouard Belin, 31401 Toulouse, France
| | - J. Xia
- Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, People's Republic of China
| | - S. Liu
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry and Ecology in Southern China, College of Biological Science and Technology, Central South University of Forest and Technology, Changsha 410004, People's Republic of China
| | - W. Yuan
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, People's Republic of China
- State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - S. A. Spawn
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
- Centre for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - H. K. Gibbs
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
- Centre for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - S. Ferrier
- CSIRO, GPO BOX 1700, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - T. Harwood
- CSIRO, GPO BOX 1700, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - R. Alkemade
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - A. M. Schipper
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud University, PO Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - G. Schmidt-Traub
- UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 75009 Paris, France
| | - B. Strassburg
- International Institute for Sustainability (IIS), CEP: 22460-320, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - L. Miles
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - N. D. Burgess
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
- Centre for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, The Natural History Museum, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - V. Kapos
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
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16
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Di Marco M, Baker ML, Daszak P, De Barro P, Eskew EA, Godde CM, Harwood TD, Herrero M, Hoskins AJ, Johnson E, Karesh WB, Machalaba C, Garcia JN, Paini D, Pirzl R, Smith MS, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Ferrier S. Opinion: Sustainable development must account for pandemic risk. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:3888-3892. [PMID: 32060123 PMCID: PMC7049118 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2001655117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 120] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Moreno Di Marco
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Land and Water, EcoSciences Precinct, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia;
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Rome, Italy
| | - Michelle L Baker
- CSIRO Australian Animal Health Laboratory, Health and Biosecurity Business Unit, Geelong, VIC 3220, Australia
| | | | - Paul De Barro
- CSIRO Health & Biosecurity, EcoSciences Precinct, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia
| | | | - Cecile M Godde
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia
| | - Tom D Harwood
- CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain Science and Innovation Park, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Mario Herrero
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia
| | - Andrew J Hoskins
- CSIRO Health and Biosecurity, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia
| | - Erica Johnson
- EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY 10001
- Department of Biology, City University of New York, New York, NY 10016
| | - William B Karesh
- EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY 10001
- Global Health Security Agenda Consortium Steering Committee, Washington, DC 20201
- World Animal Health Organisation Working Group on Wildlife, Paris 75017, France
| | - Catherine Machalaba
- EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY 10001
- Global Health Security Agenda Consortium Steering Committee, Washington, DC 20201
| | | | - Dean Paini
- CSIRO Health & Biosecurity, Black Mountain Science and Innovation Park, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Rebecca Pirzl
- CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain Science and Innovation Park, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Mark Stafford Smith
- CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain Science and Innovation Park, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | | | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain Science and Innovation Park, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
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17
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Rosa IM, Lundquist CJ, Ferrier S, Alkemade R, Castro PFDD, Joly CA. Increasing capacity to produce scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Biota Neotrop 2020. [DOI: 10.1590/1676-0611-bn-2020-1101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Abstract: Extensive anthropogenic activities driven by the demand for agriculture and forestry products have led to dramatic reductions in biodiversity worldwide and significant changes in the provisioning of ecosystem services. These trends are expected to continue in the future as the world continues to develop without much consideration of the role that nature plays in sustaining human livelihoods. Scenarios and models can be important tools to help policy- and decision-makers foresee the impact of their decisions; thus, increasing capacity in creating such models and scenarios is of utmost importance. However, postgraduate training schools that focus on this topic are still rare. Here we present and reflect on the experience of the São Paulo School of Advanced Science on Scenarios and Modelling on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to Support Human Well-Being (SPSAS Scenarios). In addition, we introduce the Special Issue of Biota Neotropica that resulted from the activities taking place during the SPSAS Scenarios. In total, nine case studies emerged from the activities carried out during SPSAS Scenarios. These focused on a variety of ecosystems, their current drivers of change and expected trends, as well as on the development of alternative positive scenarios applying the recently developed Nature Futures Framework. We emphasize the need to increase capacity in scenario and modelling skills in order to address some of the existing gaps in producing policy-relevant scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Carolyn J. Lundquist
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric, New Zealand; The University of Auckland, New Zealand
| | | | - Rob Alkemade
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Wageningen University and Research, The Netherlands
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18
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McDonald-Spicer CJ, Moritz CC, Ferrier S, Rosauer DF. The importance of defining measures of stability in macroecology and biogeography. Frontiers of Biogeography 2019. [DOI: 10.21425/f5fbg43355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
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19
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Mokany K, Harwood TD, Ferrier S. Improving links between environmental accounting and scenario‐based cumulative impact assessment for better‐informed biodiversity decisions. J Appl Ecol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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20
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Di Marco M, Harwood TD, Hoskins AJ, Ware C, Hill SLL, Ferrier S. Projecting impacts of global climate and land-use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional-turnover modelling. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:2763-2778. [PMID: 31009149 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2018] [Revised: 04/15/2019] [Accepted: 04/16/2019] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine-resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species-area relationship, to estimate the effect of land-use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land-use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio-economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre-2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land-use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7-4.5 times compared to land-use-only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land-use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre-industrial times is observed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moreno Di Marco
- CSIRO Land and Water, Ecosciences Precinct, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
- Department of Biology and Biotechnology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Tom D Harwood
- CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain Laboratories, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Andrew J Hoskins
- CSIRO Health and Biosecurity, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld, Australia
| | - Chris Ware
- CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain Laboratories, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Samantha L L Hill
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK
- UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain Laboratories, Canberra, ACT, Australia
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21
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Nicholson E, Fulton EA, Brooks TM, Blanchard R, Leadley P, Metzger JP, Mokany K, Stevenson S, Wintle BA, Woolley SN, Barnes M, Watson JE, Ferrier S. Scenarios and Models to Support Global Conservation Targets. Trends Ecol Evol 2019; 34:57-68. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.10.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2018] [Revised: 10/09/2018] [Accepted: 10/10/2018] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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22
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Smith RJ, Bennun L, Brooks TM, Butchart SHM, Cuttelod A, Di Marco M, Ferrier S, Fishpool LDC, Joppa L, Juffe‐Bignoli D, Knight AT, Lamoreux JF, Langhammer P, Possingham HP, Rondinini C, Visconti P, Watson JEM, Woodley S, Boitani L, Burgess ND, Silva N, Dudley N, Fivaz F, Game ET, Groves C, Lötter M, McGowan J, Plumptre AJ, Rebelo AG, Rodriguez JP, Scaramuzza CADM. Synergies between the key biodiversity area and systematic conservation planning approaches. Conserv Lett 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12625] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
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Mokany K, Harwood TD, Halse SA, Ferrier S. Riddles in the dark: Assessing diversity patterns for cryptic subterranean fauna of the Pilbara. DIVERS DISTRIB 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Karel Mokany
- CSIRO; Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia
| | | | - Stuart A. Halse
- Bennelongia Environmental Consultants; Wembley Western Australia Australia
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO; Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia
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Ware C, Williams KJ, Harding J, Hawkins B, Harwood T, Manion G, Perkins GC, Ferrier S. Improving biodiversity surrogates for conservation assessment: A test of methods and the value of targeted biological surveys. DIVERS DISTRIB 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Chris Ware
- Land and Water; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Canberra ACT Australia
| | - Kristen J. Williams
- Land and Water; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Canberra ACT Australia
| | - Jo Harding
- Australian Biological Resources Study; Department of the Environment and Energy; Canberra ACT Australia
| | - Brian Hawkins
- Australian Biological Resources Study; Department of the Environment and Energy; Canberra ACT Australia
| | - Thomas Harwood
- Land and Water; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Canberra ACT Australia
| | - Glenn Manion
- New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage; Armidale NSW Australia
| | - Genevieve C. Perkins
- Land and Water; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Townsville Qld Australia
- Parks Ecological Integrity Monitoring; Banff Field Unit; Parks Canada, Government of Canada; Banff AB Canada
| | - Simon Ferrier
- Land and Water; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Canberra ACT Australia
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25
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Pecl GT, Araújo MB, Bell JD, Blanchard J, Bonebrake TC, Chen IC, Clark TD, Colwell RK, Danielsen F, Evengård B, Falconi L, Ferrier S, Frusher S, Garcia RA, Griffis RB, Hobday AJ, Janion-Scheepers C, Jarzyna MA, Jennings S, Lenoir J, Linnetved HI, Martin VY, McCormack PC, McDonald J, Mitchell NJ, Mustonen T, Pandolfi JM, Pettorelli N, Popova E, Robinson SA, Scheffers BR, Shaw JD, Sorte CJB, Strugnell JM, Sunday JM, Tuanmu MN, Vergés A, Villanueva C, Wernberg T, Wapstra E, Williams SE. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science 2017; 355:355/6332/eaai9214. [PMID: 28360268 DOI: 10.1126/science.aai9214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 926] [Impact Index Per Article: 132.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gretta T Pecl
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia. .,Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Miguel B Araújo
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, 28006 Madrid, Spain.,Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Geneticos, Universidade de Évora, 7000-890 Évora, Portugal.,Department of Biology, Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark
| | - Johann D Bell
- Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia.,Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA
| | - Julia Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Timothy C Bonebrake
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - I-Ching Chen
- Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Timothy D Clark
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.,Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Agriculture and Food, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia
| | - Robert K Colwell
- Department of Biology, Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA.,University of Colorado Museum of Natural History, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.,Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil
| | | | - Birgitta Evengård
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umea University, 90187 Umea, Sweden
| | - Lorena Falconi
- College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Stewart Frusher
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Raquel A Garcia
- Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment and Conservation, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa.,Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602, South Africa
| | - Roger B Griffis
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, MD 20912, USA
| | - Alistair J Hobday
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.,CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia
| | | | - Marta A Jarzyna
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA
| | - Sarah Jennings
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.,Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- EDYSAN (FRE 3498 CNRS-UPJV), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 80037 Amiens Cedex 1, France
| | - Hlif I Linnetved
- Institute of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 25, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - Victoria Y Martin
- School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, New South Wales 2480, Australia
| | | | - Jan McDonald
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.,Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Nicola J Mitchell
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia
| | - Tero Mustonen
- Snowchange Cooperative, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, FIN 80100 Finland
| | - John M Pandolfi
- School of Biological Sciences, Autralian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia
| | - Nathalie Pettorelli
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, NW1 4RY London, UK
| | - Ekaterina Popova
- National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
| | - Sharon A Robinson
- Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, School of Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia
| | - Brett R Scheffers
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Justine D Shaw
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia
| | - Cascade J B Sorte
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Jan M Strugnell
- Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811 Queensland, Australia.,Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution, School of Life Sciences, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria 3086, Australia
| | - Jennifer M Sunday
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Mao-Ning Tuanmu
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan, Republic of China
| | - Adriana Vergés
- Centre for Marine Bio-Innovation and Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia
| | - Cecilia Villanueva
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Thomas Wernberg
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.,Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia 6009, Australia
| | - Erik Wapstra
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Stephen E Williams
- College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
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Rosa IMD, Pereira HM, Ferrier S, Alkemade R, Acosta LA, Akcakaya HR, den Belder E, Fazel AM, Fujimori S, Harfoot M, Harhash KA, Harrison PA, Hauck J, Hendriks RJJ, Hernández G, Jetz W, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen SI, Kim H, King N, Kok MTJ, Kolomytsev GO, Lazarova T, Leadley P, Lundquist CJ, García Márquez J, Meyer C, Navarro LM, Nesshöver C, Ngo HT, Ninan KN, Palomo MG, Pereira LM, Peterson GD, Pichs R, Popp A, Purvis A, Ravera F, Rondinini C, Sathyapalan J, Schipper AM, Seppelt R, Settele J, Sitas N, van Vuuren D. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures. Nat Ecol Evol 2017; 1:1416-1419. [DOI: 10.1038/s41559-017-0273-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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27
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De Palma A, Kuhlmann M, Bugter R, Ferrier S, Hoskins AJ, Potts SG, Roberts SPM, Schweiger O, Purvis A. Dimensions of biodiversity loss: Spatial mismatch in land-use impacts on species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of European bees. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017; 23:1435-1446. [PMID: 29200933 PMCID: PMC5699437 DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim Agricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity change in Europe. Different aspects of bee community diversity vary in their sensitivity to these pressures, as well as independently influencing ecosystem service provision (pollination). To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of human impacts on bee diversity across Europe, we assess multiple, complementary indices of diversity. Location One Thousand four hundred and forty six sites across Europe. Methods We collated data on bee occurrence and abundance from the published literature and supplemented them with the PREDICTS database. Using Rao's Quadratic Entropy, we assessed how species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of 1,446 bee communities respond to land‐use characteristics including land‐use class, cropland intensity, human population density and distance to roads. We combined these models with statistically downscaled estimates of land use in 2005 to estimate and map—at a scale of approximately 1 km2—the losses in diversity relative to semi‐natural/natural baseline (the predicted diversity of an uninhabited grid square, consisting only of semi‐natural/natural vegetation). Results We show that—relative to the predicted local diversity in uninhabited semi‐natural/natural habitat—half of all EU27 countries have lost over 10% of their average local species diversity and two‐thirds of countries have lost over 5% of their average local functional and phylogenetic diversity. All diversity measures were generally lower in pasture and higher‐intensity cropland than in semi‐natural/natural vegetation, but facets of diversity showed less consistent responses to human population density. These differences have led to marked spatial mismatches in losses: losses in phylogenetic diversity were in some areas almost 20 percentage points (pp.) more severe than losses in species diversity, but in other areas losses were almost 40 pp. less severe. Main conclusions These results highlight the importance of exploring multiple measures of diversity when prioritizing and evaluating conservation actions, as species‐diverse assemblages may be phylogenetically and functionally impoverished, potentially threatening pollination service provision.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adriana De Palma
- Department of Life Sciences Natural History Museum London SW7 5BD UK.,Department of Life Sciences Imperial College London Ascot SL5 7PY UK
| | - Michael Kuhlmann
- Department of Life Sciences Natural History Museum London SW7 5BD UK.,Zoological Museum University of Kiel Kiel Germany
| | - Rob Bugter
- Wageningen Environmental Research (Alterra) Wageningen P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA The Netherlands
| | | | | | - Simon G Potts
- Centre for Agri-Environmental Research School of Agriculture, Policy and Development The University of Reading Reading RG6 6AR UK
| | - Stuart P M Roberts
- Centre for Agri-Environmental Research School of Agriculture, Policy and Development The University of Reading Reading RG6 6AR UK
| | - Oliver Schweiger
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ Department of Community Ecology 06120 Halle Germany
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences Natural History Museum London SW7 5BD UK.,Department of Life Sciences Imperial College London Ascot SL5 7PY UK
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28
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Bonebrake TC, Brown CJ, Bell JD, Blanchard JL, Chauvenet A, Champion C, Chen IC, Clark TD, Colwell RK, Danielsen F, Dell AI, Donelson JM, Evengård B, Ferrier S, Frusher S, Garcia RA, Griffis RB, Hobday AJ, Jarzyna MA, Lee E, Lenoir J, Linnetved H, Martin VY, McCormack PC, McDonald J, McDonald-Madden E, Mitchell N, Mustonen T, Pandolfi JM, Pettorelli N, Possingham H, Pulsifer P, Reynolds M, Scheffers BR, Sorte CJB, Strugnell JM, Tuanmu MN, Twiname S, Vergés A, Villanueva C, Wapstra E, Wernberg T, Pecl GT. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2017; 93:284-305. [PMID: 28568902 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12344] [Citation(s) in RCA: 106] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2016] [Revised: 05/03/2017] [Accepted: 05/05/2017] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy C Bonebrake
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, 999077, China
| | | | - Johann D Bell
- Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia.,Conservation International, Arlington, VA, 22202, U.S.A
| | - Julia L Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Alienor Chauvenet
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St Lucia, 4072, Australia.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia
| | - Curtis Champion
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - I-Ching Chen
- Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 701, Republic of China
| | - Timothy D Clark
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Hobart, 7000, Australia
| | - Robert K Colwell
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Natural History Museum of Denmark, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269, U.S.A.,University of Colorado Museum of Natural History, Boulder, CO, 80309, U.S.A.,Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970, Goiânia, Brazil
| | - Finn Danielsen
- Nordic Foundation for Development and Ecology (NORDECO), Copenhagen, DK-1159, Denmark
| | - Anthony I Dell
- National Great Rivers Research and Education Center (NGRREC), East Alton, IL, 62024, U.S.A.,Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, 631303, USA
| | - Jennifer M Donelson
- School of Life Sciences, University of Technology, Sydney, 2007, Australia.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, Australia
| | - Birgitta Evengård
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umea University, 90187, Umea, Sweden
| | | | - Stewart Frusher
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Raquel A Garcia
- Department of Statistical Sciences, Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment and Conservation, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa.,Faculty of Science, Department of Botany and Zoology, Centre for Invasion Biology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland, 7602, South Africa
| | - Roger B Griffis
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD, 20910, U.S.A
| | - Alistair J Hobday
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, 7000, Australia
| | - Marta A Jarzyna
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, U.S.A
| | - Emma Lee
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UR « Ecologie et dynamique des systèmes anthropisés » (EDYSAN, FRE 3498 CNRS-UPJV), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, FR-80037, Amiens Cedex 1, France
| | - Hlif Linnetved
- Faculty of Science, Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, DK-1958, Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - Victoria Y Martin
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14850, U.S.A
| | | | - Jan McDonald
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia
| | - Eve McDonald-Madden
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia.,School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia
| | - Nicola Mitchell
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, 6009, Australia
| | - Tero Mustonen
- Snowchange Cooperative, University of Eastern Finland, 80130, Joensuu, Finland
| | - John M Pandolfi
- School of Biological Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia
| | | | - Hugh Possingham
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia.,Grand Challenges in Ecosystems and the Environment, Silwood Park, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
| | - Peter Pulsifer
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, U.S.A
| | - Mark Reynolds
- The Nature Conservancy, San Francisco, CA, 94105, U.S.A
| | - Brett R Scheffers
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida/IFAS, Gainesville, FL, 32611, U.S.A
| | - Cascade J B Sorte
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, U.S.A
| | - Jan M Strugnell
- Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, Australia
| | - Mao-Ning Tuanmu
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, 115, Republic of China
| | - Samantha Twiname
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Adriana Vergés
- Centre for Marine Bio-Innovation and Evolution & Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, Australia
| | - Cecilia Villanueva
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Erik Wapstra
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
| | - Thomas Wernberg
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, 6009, Australia.,UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, 6009, Australia
| | - Gretta T Pecl
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
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29
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Noble C, Laver RJ, Rosauer DF, Ferrier S, Moritz C. Phylogeographic evidence for evolutionary refugia in the Gulf sandstone ranges of northern Australia. AUST J ZOOL 2017. [DOI: 10.1071/zo17079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Locating and protecting climate change refugia is important to conserving biodiversity with accelerating climate change. Comparative phylogeographic analysis provides an effective tool for locating such refugia, as long-term retention of one or more populations within a refugial landscape will generate unique genetic lineages. The ranges of the western Gulf region of northern Australia are thought to represent a significant arid-zone refugium, in which case low-dispersal organisms should have strong phylogeographic structure across the region. To test for this, we conducted extensive sampling of three species of Gehyra geckos and analysed diversity for mitochondrial DNA and eight nuclear loci. These analyses revealed congruent and high phylogeographic diversity, especially, but not exclusively, in rock-restricted species. This finding, and other recent phylogeographic evidence, demonstrates that these topographically variable landforms have enabled persistence of ecologically diverse vertebrate species through the climate changes of the late Pleistocene. Identification of this relatively under-protected region as a significant climate change refugium points to the need to expand protected areas in this region and to invest in ecological management across existing National Parks and Indigenous Protected Areas.
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30
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Bush A, Mokany K, Catullo R, Hoffmann A, Kellermann V, Sgrò C, McEvey S, Ferrier S. Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change. Ecol Lett 2016; 19:1468-1478. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 155] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2016] [Revised: 09/01/2016] [Accepted: 10/05/2016] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Alex Bush
- CSIRO Land and Water; Canberra Australia
| | | | - Renee Catullo
- CSIRO Land and Water; Canberra Australia
- Biological Sciences; Macquarie University; Sydney Australia
- School of Science and Health; Western Sydney University; Australia
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31
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Newbold T, Hudson LN, Arnell AP, Contu S, De Palma A, Ferrier S, Hill SLL, Hoskins AJ, Lysenko I, Phillips HRP, Burton VJ, Chng CWT, Emerson S, Gao D, Pask-Hale G, Hutton J, Jung M, Sanchez-Ortiz K, Simmons BI, Whitmee S, Zhang H, Scharlemann JPW, Purvis A. Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment. Science 2016; 353:288-91. [PMID: 27418509 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf2201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 306] [Impact Index Per Article: 38.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2016] [Accepted: 06/06/2016] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Land use and related pressures have reduced local terrestrial biodiversity, but it is unclear how the magnitude of change relates to the recently proposed planetary boundary ("safe limit"). We estimate that land use and related pressures have already reduced local biodiversity intactness--the average proportion of natural biodiversity remaining in local ecosystems--beyond its recently proposed planetary boundary across 58.1% of the world's land surface, where 71.4% of the human population live. Biodiversity intactness within most biomes (especially grassland biomes), most biodiversity hotspots, and even some wilderness areas is inferred to be beyond the boundary. Such widespread transgression of safe limits suggests that biodiversity loss, if unchecked, will undermine efforts toward long-term sustainable development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim Newbold
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
| | - Lawrence N Hudson
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Andrew P Arnell
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Sara Contu
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Adriana De Palma
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Simon Ferrier
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Land and Water Flagship, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Samantha L L Hill
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Andrew J Hoskins
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Land and Water Flagship, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Igor Lysenko
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Helen R P Phillips
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Victoria J Burton
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Charlotte W T Chng
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Susan Emerson
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Di Gao
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Gwilym Pask-Hale
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Jon Hutton
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Luc Hoffmann Institute, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) International, 1196 Gland, Switzerland
| | - Martin Jung
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark. School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK
| | - Katia Sanchez-Ortiz
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Benno I Simmons
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Sarah Whitmee
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Hanbin Zhang
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Jörn P W Scharlemann
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
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32
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Maguire KC, Nieto-Lugilde D, Blois JL, Fitzpatrick MC, Williams JW, Ferrier S, Lorenz DJ. Correction to 'Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities'. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 283:rspb.2016.1705. [PMID: 27559068 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.1705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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Gray CL, Hill SLL, Newbold T, Hudson LN, Börger L, Contu S, Hoskins AJ, Ferrier S, Purvis A, Scharlemann JPW. Local biodiversity is higher inside than outside terrestrial protected areas worldwide. Nat Commun 2016; 7:12306. [PMID: 27465407 PMCID: PMC4974472 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12306] [Citation(s) in RCA: 220] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2015] [Accepted: 05/27/2016] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Here, using a new global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land uses inside and outside protected areas. Globally, species richness is 10.6% higher and abundance 14.5% higher in samples taken inside protected areas compared with samples taken outside, but neither rarefaction-based richness nor endemicity differ significantly. Importantly, we show that the positive effects of protection are mostly attributable to differences in land use between protected and unprotected sites. Nonetheless, even within some human-dominated land uses, species richness and abundance are higher in protected sites. Our results reinforce the global importance of protected areas but suggest that protection does not consistently benefit species with small ranges or increase the variety of ecological niches. Protected areas are thought essential for biodiversity conservation, but few studies confirm that protection benefits species. Here, Gray and Hill et al. analyse a global, taxonomically broad database to show that local species richness and abundance are higher inside protected areas than outside.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claudia L Gray
- School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK
| | - Samantha L L Hill
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.,Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Tim Newbold
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Lawrence N Hudson
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Luca Börger
- Department of Biosciences, College of Science, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK
| | - Sara Contu
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Andrew J Hoskins
- CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College, London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Jörn P W Scharlemann
- School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK.,United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
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Newbold T, Hudson LN, Arnell AP, Contu S, De Palma A, Ferrier S, Hill SLL, Hoskins AJ, Lysenko I, Phillips HRP, Burton VJ, Chng CWT, Emerson S, Gao D, Pask-Hale G, Hutton J, Jung M, Sanchez-Ortiz K, Simmons BI, Whitmee S, Zhang H, Scharlemann JPW, Purvis A. Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment. Science 2016. [PMID: 27418509 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf2201/suppl_file/newbold-sm.pdf] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Land use and related pressures have reduced local terrestrial biodiversity, but it is unclear how the magnitude of change relates to the recently proposed planetary boundary ("safe limit"). We estimate that land use and related pressures have already reduced local biodiversity intactness--the average proportion of natural biodiversity remaining in local ecosystems--beyond its recently proposed planetary boundary across 58.1% of the world's land surface, where 71.4% of the human population live. Biodiversity intactness within most biomes (especially grassland biomes), most biodiversity hotspots, and even some wilderness areas is inferred to be beyond the boundary. Such widespread transgression of safe limits suggests that biodiversity loss, if unchecked, will undermine efforts toward long-term sustainable development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim Newbold
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
| | - Lawrence N Hudson
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Andrew P Arnell
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Sara Contu
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Adriana De Palma
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Simon Ferrier
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Land and Water Flagship, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Samantha L L Hill
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Andrew J Hoskins
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Land and Water Flagship, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Igor Lysenko
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Helen R P Phillips
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Victoria J Burton
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Charlotte W T Chng
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Susan Emerson
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Di Gao
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Gwilym Pask-Hale
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Jon Hutton
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Luc Hoffmann Institute, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) International, 1196 Gland, Switzerland
| | - Martin Jung
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark. School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK
| | - Katia Sanchez-Ortiz
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Benno I Simmons
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Sarah Whitmee
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Hanbin Zhang
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Jörn P W Scharlemann
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK
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Harwood TD, Donohue RJ, Williams KJ, Ferrier S, McVicar TR, Newell G, White M. Habitat Condition Assessment System: a new way to assess the condition of natural habitats for terrestrial biodiversity across whole regions using remote sensing data. Methods Ecol Evol 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12579] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Tom D. Harwood
- CSIRO Black Mountain Laboratories Clunies Ross Street Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
| | - Randall J. Donohue
- CSIRO Black Mountain Laboratories Clunies Ross Street Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
| | - Kristen J. Williams
- CSIRO Black Mountain Laboratories Clunies Ross Street Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Black Mountain Laboratories Clunies Ross Street Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
| | - Tim R. McVicar
- CSIRO Black Mountain Laboratories Clunies Ross Street Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
| | - Graeme Newell
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries 123 Brown Street Heidelberg Vic. 3084 Australia
| | - Matt White
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries 123 Brown Street Heidelberg Vic. 3084 Australia
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Bush A, Harwood T, Hoskins AJ, Mokany K, Ferrier S. Current Uses of Beta-Diversity in Biodiversity Conservation: A response to Socolar et al. Trends Ecol Evol 2016; 31:337-338. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2016.02.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2016] [Accepted: 02/25/2016] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
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Burley HM, Mokany K, Ferrier S, Laffan SW, Williams KJ, Harwood TD. Macroecological scale effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions under environmental change. Ecol Evol 2016; 6:2579-93. [PMID: 27066246 PMCID: PMC4798165 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2015] [Revised: 02/01/2016] [Accepted: 02/02/2016] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Conserving different spatial and temporal dimensions of biological diversity is considered necessary for maintaining ecosystem functions under predicted global change scenarios. Recent work has shifted the focus from spatially local (α-diversity) to macroecological scales (β- and γ-diversity), emphasizing links between macroecological biodiversity and ecosystem functions (MB-EF relationships). However, before the outcomes of MB-EF analyses can be useful to real-world decisions, empirical modeling needs to be developed for natural ecosystems, incorporating a broader range of data inputs, environmental change scenarios, underlying mechanisms, and predictions. We outline the key conceptual and technical challenges currently faced in developing such models and in testing and calibrating the relationships assumed in these models using data from real ecosystems. These challenges are explored in relation to two potential MB-EF mechanisms: "macroecological complementarity" and "spatiotemporal compensation." Several regions have been sufficiently well studied over space and time to robustly test these mechanisms by combining cutting-edge spatiotemporal methods with remotely sensed data, including plant community data sets in Australia, Europe, and North America. Assessing empirical MB-EF relationships at broad spatiotemporal scales will be crucial in ensuring these macroecological processes can be adequately considered in the management of biodiversity and ecosystem functions under global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hugh M Burley
- Centre for Ecosystem Science School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales 2052 Australia; CSIRO Land and Water Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia
| | - Karel Mokany
- CSIRO Land and Water Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Land and Water Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia
| | - Shawn W Laffan
- Centre for Ecosystem Science School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales 2052 Australia
| | - Kristen J Williams
- CSIRO Land and Water Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia
| | - Tom D Harwood
- CSIRO Land and Water Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia
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38
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Di Marco M, Brooks T, Cuttelod A, Fishpool LDC, Rondinini C, Smith RJ, Bennun L, Butchart SHM, Ferrier S, Foppen RPB, Joppa L, Juffe-Bignoli D, Knight AT, Lamoreux JF, Langhammer PF, May I, Possingham HP, Visconti P, Watson JEM, Woodley S. Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas. Conserv Biol 2016; 30:392-402. [PMID: 26307601 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2015] [Accepted: 08/12/2015] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold- and complementarity-based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity-based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold-based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted-range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold- and complementarity-based approaches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moreno Di Marco
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, SapienzaUniversità di Roma, viale dell' Università 32, 00185, Rome, Italy
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Thomas Brooks
- International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, 1196, Gland, Switzerland
- World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, 4031, Philippines
- School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Annabelle Cuttelod
- International Union for Conservation of Nature, Sheraton House Castle Park, Cambridge, CB3 0AX, United Kingdom
| | - Lincoln D C Fishpool
- BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, CB3 0NA, United Kingdom
| | - Carlo Rondinini
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, SapienzaUniversità di Roma, viale dell' Università 32, 00185, Rome, Italy
| | - Robert J Smith
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, CT2 7NR, United Kingdom
| | - Leon Bennun
- The Biodiversity Consultancy Ltd, 3E King's Parade, Cambridge, CB2 1SJ, United Kingdom
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, CB3 0NA, United Kingdom
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Ruud P B Foppen
- Sovon, Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, P.O. Box 6521, 6503, GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- European Bird Census Council, P.O. Box 6521, 6503, GA, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- Radboud University, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology, P.O. Box 9100, 6500, GL, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Lucas Joppa
- Microsoft Research, Redmond, Washington, U.S.A
| | - Diego Juffe-Bignoli
- United Nations Environment Programme-World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, CB3 0DL, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew T Knight
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, United Kingdom
- Department of Botany, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, P.O. Box 77000, Port Elizabeth, 6031, South Africa
| | - John F Lamoreux
- National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, Washington, D.C., 20005, U.S.A
| | - Penny F Langhammer
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 874601, Tempe, Arizona, 85287-4601, U.S.A
| | - Ian May
- BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, CB3 0NA, United Kingdom
| | - Hugh P Possingham
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, United Kingdom
| | | | - James E M Watson
- Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, 2300 Southern Boulevard, Bronx, New York, 10460, U.S.A
| | - Stephen Woodley
- WCPA-SSC Joint Task Force on Biodiversity and Protected Areas, International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 64 Juniper Road, Chelsea, Quebec, J9B 1T3, Canada
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Hoskins AJ, Bush A, Gilmore J, Harwood T, Hudson LN, Ware C, Williams KJ, Ferrier S. Downscaling land-use data to provide global 30″ estimates of five land-use classes. Ecol Evol 2016; 6:3040-55. [PMID: 27069595 PMCID: PMC4814442 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2015] [Revised: 03/06/2016] [Accepted: 03/07/2016] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Land-use change is one of the biggest threats to biodiversity globally. The effects of land use on biodiversity manifest primarily at local scales which are not captured by the coarse spatial grain of current global land-use mapping. Assessments of land-use impacts on biodiversity across large spatial extents require data at a similar spatial grain to the ecological processes they are assessing. Here, we develop a method for statistically downscaling mapped land-use data that combines generalized additive modeling and constrained optimization. This method was applied to the 0.5° Land-use Harmonization data for the year 2005 to produce global 30″ (approx. 1 km(2)) estimates of five land-use classes: primary habitat, secondary habitat, cropland, pasture, and urban. The original dataset was partitioned into 61 bio-realms (unique combinations of biome and biogeographical realm) and downscaled using relationships with fine-grained climate, land cover, landform, and anthropogenic influence layers. The downscaled land-use data were validated using the PREDICTS database and the geoWiki global cropland dataset. Application of the new method to all 61 bio-realms produced global fine-grained layers from the 2005 time step of the Land-use Harmonization dataset. Coarse-scaled proportions of land use estimated from these data compared well with those estimated in the original datasets (mean R (2): 0.68 ± 0.19). Validation with the PREDICTS database showed the new downscaled land-use layers improved discrimination of all five classes at PREDICTS sites (P < 0.0001 in all cases). Additional validation of the downscaled cropping layer with the geoWiki layer showed an R (2) improvement of 0.12 compared with the Land-use Harmonization data. The downscaling method presented here produced the first global land-use dataset at a spatial grain relevant to ecological processes that drive changes in biodiversity over space and time. Integrating these data with biodiversity measures will enable the reporting of land-use impacts on biodiversity at a finer resolution than previously possible. Furthermore, the general method presented here could be useful to others wishing to downscale similarly constrained coarse-resolution data for other environmental variables.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Alex Bush
- CSIRO Land and Water Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
| | | | - Tom Harwood
- CSIRO Land and Water Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
| | - Lawrence N Hudson
- Department of Life Sciences Natural History Museum Cromwell Road London SW7 5BD UK
| | - Chris Ware
- CSIRO Land and Water Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
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40
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Maguire KC, Nieto-Lugilde D, Blois JL, Fitzpatrick MC, Williams JW, Ferrier S, Lorenz DJ. Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 283:20152817. [PMID: 26962143 PMCID: PMC4810853 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.2817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2015] [Accepted: 02/16/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in these instances, especially when models were fit with sparse calibration datasets. Additionally, CLMs did not over-fit training data, unlike SDMs. The expected emergence of novel climates presents a major forecasting challenge for all models, but CLMs may better rise to this challenge by borrowing information from co-occurring taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kaitlin C Maguire
- 1School of Natural Sciences, University of California-Merced, Merced, CA, USA
| | - Diego Nieto-Lugilde
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD 21532, USA
| | - Jessica L Blois
- 1School of Natural Sciences, University of California-Merced, Merced, CA, USA
| | - Matthew C Fitzpatrick
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD 21532, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - David J Lorenz
- Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
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41
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Tucker CM, Cadotte MW, Carvalho SB, Davies TJ, Ferrier S, Fritz SA, Grenyer R, Helmus MR, Jin LS, Mooers AO, Pavoine S, Purschke O, Redding DW, Rosauer DF, Winter M, Mazel F. A guide to phylogenetic metrics for conservation, community ecology and macroecology. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2016; 92:698-715. [PMID: 26785932 PMCID: PMC5096690 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 275] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2015] [Revised: 12/01/2015] [Accepted: 12/14/2015] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
The use of phylogenies in ecology is increasingly common and has broadened our understanding of biological diversity. Ecological sub‐disciplines, particularly conservation, community ecology and macroecology, all recognize the value of evolutionary relationships but the resulting development of phylogenetic approaches has led to a proliferation of phylogenetic diversity metrics. The use of many metrics across the sub‐disciplines hampers potential meta‐analyses, syntheses, and generalizations of existing results. Further, there is no guide for selecting the appropriate metric for a given question, and different metrics are frequently used to address similar questions. To improve the choice, application, and interpretation of phylo‐diversity metrics, we organize existing metrics by expanding on a unifying framework for phylogenetic information. Generally, questions about phylogenetic relationships within or between assemblages tend to ask three types of question: how much; how different; or how regular? We show that these questions reflect three dimensions of a phylogenetic tree: richness, divergence, and regularity. We classify 70 existing phylo‐diversity metrics based on their mathematical form within these three dimensions and identify ‘anchor’ representatives: for α‐diversity metrics these are PD (Faith's phylogenetic diversity), MPD (mean pairwise distance), and VPD (variation of pairwise distances). By analysing mathematical formulae and using simulations, we use this framework to identify metrics that mix dimensions, and we provide a guide to choosing and using the most appropriate metrics. We show that metric choice requires connecting the research question with the correct dimension of the framework and that there are logical approaches to selecting and interpreting metrics. The guide outlined herein will help researchers navigate the current jungle of indices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caroline M Tucker
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Box 334, Boulder, CO, 80309-0334, U.S.A
| | - Marc W Cadotte
- Biological Sciences, University of Toronto-Scarborough, Scarborough, M1C 1A4, Canada.,Stake Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Dynamics and Conservation of Guangdong, Higher Education Institutes, College of Ecology and Evolution, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Silvia B Carvalho
- CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos da Universidade do Porto, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal
| | - T Jonathan Davies
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montréal, H3A 1B1, Canada.,African Centre for DNA Barcoding, University of Johannesburg, PO Box 524, Johannesburg, 2006, South Africa
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Climate Adaptation Flagship, GPO BOX 1600, Canberra, 2601, Australia
| | - Susanne A Fritz
- Biodiversity & Climate Research Centre (BiK-F) and Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.,Institute of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity, Goethe University, 60438, Frankfurt, Germany
| | - Rich Grenyer
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, U.K
| | - Matthew R Helmus
- Department of Ecological Sciences - Animal Ecology, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands.,Center for Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Temple University, Suite 502, Philadelphia, PA, 19122, U.S.A
| | - Lanna S Jin
- Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Room 3055, Toronto, M5S 3B2, Canada
| | - Arne O Mooers
- Department of Biology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - Sandrine Pavoine
- Centre of Ecology and Conservation Sciences (UMR 7204 CESCO), Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France.,Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Oliver Purschke
- German Centre of Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, DE-04103, Leipzig, Germany.,Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University, Halle-Wittenberg, DE-06108, Halle (Saale), Germany.,Department of Computer Science, Martin-Luther-University, Halle-Wittenberg, DE-06120, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - David W Redding
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, U.K
| | - Dan F Rosauer
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Acton, 2601, Australia
| | - Marten Winter
- German Centre of Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, DE-04103, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Florent Mazel
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), CNRS - Université Grenoble Alpes (UMR 5553), BP 53, 38041, Grenoble Cedex 9, France
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42
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Mokany K, Thomson JJ, Lynch JJ, Jordan GJ, Ferrier S. Linking changes in community composition and function under climate change. Ecol Appl 2015; 25:2132-2141. [PMID: 26910944 DOI: 10.1890/14-2384.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is expected to directly alter the composition of communities and the functioning of ecosystems across the globe. Improving our understanding of links between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning across large spatial scales and rapid global change is a major priority to help identify management responses that will retain diverse, functioning systems. Here we address this challenge by linking projected changes in plant community composition and functional attributes (height, leaf area, seed mass) under climate change across Tasmania, Australia. Using correlative community-level modeling, we found that projected changes in plant community composition were not consistently related to projected changes in community mean trait values. In contrast, we identified specific mechanisms through which alternative combinations of projected functional and compositional change across Tasmania could be realized, including loss/replacement of functionally similar species (lowland grasslands/grassy woodlands) and loss of a small number of functionally unique species (lowland forests). Importantly, we demonstrate how these linked projections of change in community composition and functional attributes can be utilized to inform specific management actions that may assist in maintaining diverse, functioning ecosystems under climate change.
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Mokany K, Ferrier S, Connolly SR, Dunstan PK, Fulton EA, Harfoot MB, Harwood TD, Richardson AJ, Roxburgh SH, Scharlemann JPW, Tittensor DP, Westcott DA, Wintle BA. Integrating modelling of biodiversity composition and ecosystem function. OIKOS 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.02792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Sean R. Connolly
- School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University; Townsville QLD Australia
| | | | | | - Michael B. Harfoot
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre; Cambridge UK
- Computational Ecology and Environmental Science, Microsoft Research; Cambridge UK
| | | | - Anthony J. Richardson
- CSIRO; Brisbane QLD Australia
- Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, School of Mathematics and Physics, The Univ. of Queensland; St Lucia QLD Australia
| | | | - Jörn P. W. Scharlemann
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre; Cambridge UK
- School of Life Sciences, Univ. of Sussex; Brighton UK
| | - Derek P. Tittensor
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre; Cambridge UK
- Computational Ecology and Environmental Science, Microsoft Research; Cambridge UK
- Dept of Biology; Dalhousie University; Halifax NS Canada
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Witcher CS, McGannon KR, Hernandez P, Dechman G, Ferrier S, Spence JC, Rhodes RE, Blanchard CM. A Qualitative Exploration of Exercise Among Pulmonary Rehabilitation Participants: Insight From Multiple Sources of Social Influence. Respir Care 2015; 60:1624-34. [DOI: 10.4187/respcare.04120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
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Gibson L, Williams K, Pinder A, Harwood T, McKenzie N, Ferrier S, Lyons M, Burbidge A, Manion G. Compositional patterns in terrestrial fauna and wetland flora and fauna across the Pilbara biogeographic region of Western Australia and the representativeness of its conservation reserve system. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2015. [DOI: 10.18195/issn.0313-122x.78(2).2015.515-545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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Reside AE, Welbergen JA, Phillips BL, Wardell-Johnson GW, Keppel G, Ferrier S, Williams SE, VanDerWal J. Characteristics of climate change refugia for Australian biodiversity. AUSTRAL ECOL 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/aec.12146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- April E. Reside
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change; James Cook University; Townsville Qld 4811 Australia
| | - Justin A. Welbergen
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change; James Cook University; Townsville Qld 4811 Australia
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment; UWS Hawkesbury Campus; Hawkesbury New South Wales Australia
| | - Ben L. Phillips
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change; James Cook University; Townsville Qld 4811 Australia
- Department of Zoology; University of Melbourne; Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | - Grant W. Wardell-Johnson
- Curtin Institute for Biodiversity and Climate; Curtin University; Perth Western Australia Australia
| | - Gunnar Keppel
- School of Natural and Built Environments and Barbara Hardy Institute; University of South Australia; Adelaide South Australia Australia
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences; Climate Adaptation Flagship; Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia
| | - Stephen E. Williams
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change; James Cook University; Townsville Qld 4811 Australia
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change; James Cook University; Townsville Qld 4811 Australia
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Drielsma M, Ferrier S, Howling G, Manion G, Taylor S, Love J. The Biodiversity Forecasting Toolkit: Answering the ‘how much’, ‘what’, and ‘where’ of planning for biodiversity persistence. Ecol Modell 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Guisan A, Tingley R, Baumgartner JB, Naujokaitis-Lewis I, Sutcliffe PR, Tulloch AIT, Regan TJ, Brotons L, McDonald-Madden E, Mantyka-Pringle C, Martin TG, Rhodes JR, Maggini R, Setterfield SA, Elith J, Schwartz MW, Wintle BA, Broennimann O, Austin M, Ferrier S, Kearney MR, Possingham HP, Buckley YM. Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecol Lett 2013; 16:1424-35. [PMID: 24134332 PMCID: PMC4280402 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 697] [Impact Index Per Article: 63.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2013] [Revised: 06/28/2013] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antoine Guisan
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Biological Sciences, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Ecosciences PrecinctDutton Park, Brisbane, Qld, 4102, Australia
| | - Reid Tingley
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Botany, The University of MelbourneParkville, Vic, 3010, Australia
| | - John B Baumgartner
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Botany, The University of MelbourneParkville, Vic, 3010, Australia
| | | | - Patricia R Sutcliffe
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Biological Sciences, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
| | - Ayesha I T Tulloch
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Biological Sciences, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
| | - Tracey J Regan
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Botany, The University of MelbourneParkville, Vic, 3010, Australia
| | - Lluis Brotons
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF)Bellaterra, Spain
- Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya (CTFC - CEMFOR)Solsona, Spain
| | - Eve McDonald-Madden
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Biological Sciences, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Ecosciences PrecinctDutton Park, Brisbane, Qld, 4102, Australia
| | - Chrystal Mantyka-Pringle
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Ecosciences PrecinctDutton Park, Brisbane, Qld, 4102, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
| | - Tara G Martin
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Biological Sciences, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Ecosciences PrecinctDutton Park, Brisbane, Qld, 4102, Australia
| | - Jonathan R Rhodes
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
| | - Ramona Maggini
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Biological Sciences, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
| | - Samantha A Setterfield
- Research Institute for Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin UniversityDarwin, NT, 0909, Australia
| | - Jane Elith
- School of Botany, The University of MelbourneParkville, Vic, 3010, Australia
| | - Mark W Schwartz
- John Muir Institute of the Environment, University of CaliforniaDavis, 95616, USA
| | - Brendan A Wintle
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Botany, The University of MelbourneParkville, Vic, 3010, Australia
| | - Olivier Broennimann
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Mike Austin
- CSIRO Ecosystem SciencesGPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Simon Ferrier
- CSIRO Ecosystem SciencesGPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Michael R Kearney
- Department of Zoology, The University of MelbourneParkville, Vic, 3010, Australia
| | - Hugh P Possingham
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Biological Sciences, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
- Imperial College London, Department of Life SciencesSilwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berkshire, England, UK
| | - Yvonne M Buckley
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), School of Biological Sciences, The University of QueenslandSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia
- Zoology Department, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity CollegeDublin 2, Ireland
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Fitzpatrick MC, Sanders NJ, Normand S, Svenning JC, Ferrier S, Gove AD, Dunn RR. Environmental and historical imprints on beta diversity: insights from variation in rates of species turnover along gradients. Proc Biol Sci 2013; 280:20131201. [PMID: 23926147 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 123] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
A common approach for analysing geographical variation in biodiversity involves using linear models to determine the rate at which species similarity declines with geographical or environmental distance and comparing this rate among regions, taxa or communities. Implicit in this approach are weakly justified assumptions that the rate of species turnover remains constant along gradients and that this rate can therefore serve as a means to compare ecological systems. We use generalized dissimilarity modelling, a novel method that accommodates variation in rates of species turnover along gradients and between different gradients, to compare environmental and spatial controls on the floras of two regions with contrasting evolutionary and climatic histories: southwest Australia and northern Europe. We find stronger signals of climate history in the northern European flora and demonstrate that variation in rates of species turnover is persistent across regions, taxa and different gradients. Such variation may represent an important but often overlooked component of biodiversity that complicates comparisons of distance-decay relationships and underscores the importance of using methods that accommodate the curvilinear relationships expected when modelling beta diversity. Determining how rates of species turnover vary along and between gradients is relevant to understanding the sensitivity of ecological systems to environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew C Fitzpatrick
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Centre for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD 21532, USA.
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Blois JL, Williams JW, Fitzpatrick MC, Jackson ST, Ferrier S. Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2013; 110:9374-9. [PMID: 23690569 PMCID: PMC3677423 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1220228110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 271] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
"Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption--that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity--rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica L Blois
- Nelson Center for Climatic Research and Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
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