A Conceptual Framework to Integrate Biodiversity, Ecosystem Function, and Ecosystem Service Models

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Biodiversity modeling advances will improve predictions of nature's contributions to people

Accurate predictions of ecosystem functions and nature's contributions to people (NCP) are needed to prioritize environmental protection and restoration in the Anthropocene. However, our ability to predict NCP is undermined by approaches that rely on biophysical variables and ignore those describing biodiversity, which have strong links to NCP. To foster predictive mapping of NCP, we should harness the latest methods in biodiversity modeling. This field advances rapidly, and new techniques with promising applications for predicting NCP are still underutilized. Here, we argue that employing recent advances in biodiversity modeling can enhance the accuracy and scope of NCP maps and predictions. This enhancement will contribute significantly to the achievement of global objectives to preserve NCP, for both the present and an unpredictable future.

Classification and distribution of functional groups of birds and mammals in Mexico

There has been a recent exponential growth in the study of functional trait ecology. Nonetheless, the study of functional traits and functional groups has been limited for terrestrial vertebrates. We conducted a classification update of functional groups (FG) of birds and mammals in Mexico, and determined the distribution patterns of FG species richness in different ecosystems nationwide. We selected six functional traits (feeding habit, locomotion, feeding substrate and technique, activity period, seasonality, and body size) obtained for 987 and 496 species of birds and mammals, respectively. A cophenetic correlation analyses resulted in values of 0.82 for the bird species dendrogram, and 0.79 for the mammal species dendrogram showing that the structures adequately reflected the similarity between observations. We obtained 52 FG for birds, assembled into 9 broader groups based on their feeding habits (16 invertivores, 6 carnivores: 5 herbivores, 9 aquatic vertivore/invertivore, 5 granivores, 1 scavenger, 3 nectarivores, 4 frugivores, and 3 omnivores). We obtained 35 FG for mammals, assembled into 9 broader groups based on their feeding habits (4 granivores, 10 herbivores, 1 nectarivore, 4 frugivores, 8 invertivores, 3 omnivores, 2 aquatic vertivore/invertivore, 1 hematophagous, and 2 carnivores). Overall, the distribution of FG species richness for birds and mammals gradually increased from the Nearctic to the Neotropical region, following a typical latitudinal species richness pattern. Few FG of migratory birds, and FG of granivore and herbivore mammals showed more species in the Nearctic and in the transitional regions. Our study provides a baseline for identifying ecological functions of species of birds and mammals in different ecosystems in Mexico, and contributes to understand the relationship between species diversity, community structure and ecosystem functioning. Identifying spatial patterns of functional trait diversity is important as biodiversity loss has a negative impact on ecosystem functioning and provision of environmental services.

Perspective: sustainability challenges, opportunities and solutions for long-term ecosystem observations

As interest in natural capital grows and society increasingly recognizes the value of biodiversity, we must discuss how ecosystem observations to detect changes in biodiversity can be sustained through collaboration across regions and sectors. However, there are many barriers to establishing and sustaining large-scale, fine-resolution ecosystem observations. First, comprehensive monitoring data on both biodiversity and possible anthropogenic factors are lacking. Second, some in situ ecosystem observations cannot be systematically established and maintained across locations. Third, equitable solutions across sectors and countries are needed to build a global network. Here, by examining individual cases and emerging frameworks, mainly from (but not limited to) Japan, we illustrate how ecological science relies on long-term data and how neglecting basic monitoring of our home planet further reduces our chances of overcoming the environmental crisis. We also discuss emerging techniques and opportunities, such as environmental DNA and citizen science as well as using the existing and forgotten sites of monitoring, that can help overcome some of the difficulties in establishing and sustaining ecosystem observations at a large scale with fine resolution. Overall, this paper presents a call to action for joint monitoring of biodiversity and anthropogenic factors, the systematic establishment and maintenance of in situ observations, and equitable solutions across sectors and countries to build a global network, beyond cultures, languages, and economic status. We hope that our proposed framework and the examples from Japan can serve as a starting point for further discussions and collaborations among stakeholders across multiple sectors of society. It is time to take the next step in detecting changes in socio-ecological systems, and if monitoring and observation can be made more equitable and feasible, they will play an even more important role in ensuring global sustainability for future generations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity-Living in harmony with nature-is that "By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people". In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of "living in harmony with nature" have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.

Exploring the Relationship between Ecosystem Services under Different Socio-Economic Driving Degrees

The large-scale transformation of natural ecosystems to socio-economic development land types under human activities was a primary reason for the decline of regional ecosystem services. It is a key issue for regional ecosystem planning and management to reveal the relationship between ecosystem services of different land use types under different socio-economic driving degrees. However, the current related research was not in-depth. Based on the land use data of Wuhan City in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study classified land use into three categories according to the different degrees of human activities on natural ecosystem development: the land use of a natural ecosystem (LUNE), the land use of a productive ecosystem (LUPE), and the land use of a socio-economic system (LUSE). The InVEST model was used to simulate five ecosystem services (grain yield, water yield, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water purification), and the spatio-temporal distribution and functional transformation of the three land use types were analyzed. Results showed that with the intensified urban expansion in Wuhan, the LUSE types increased to 2.7 times that of the original. However, the natural land types basically maintained a stable area, coupling with the large-scale transformation between the LUPE and LUSE types. Land use change resulted in significant spatial changes of five ecosystem services, especially carbon storage and habitat quality. The correlation analysis indicated that the five kinds of ecosystem services mainly showed a synergistic relationship, meanwhile the LUSE type denoted the most significant correlation with ecosystem services among these three category types. This study indicated that besides the protection of natural ecosystems, the LUSE type would become the key land use type in the planning and management of improving regional ecological function.