Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Global conservation status of the jawed vertebrate Tree of Life

Human-driven extinction threatens entire lineages across the Tree of Life. Here we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history, using three policy-relevant approaches. First, we calculate an index of threat to overall evolutionary history, showing that we expect to lose 86-150 billion years (11-19%) of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history over the next 50-500 years. Second, we rank jawed vertebrate species by their EDGE scores to identify the highest priorities for species-focused conservation of evolutionary history, finding that chondrichthyans, ray-finned fish and testudines rank highest of all jawed vertebrates. Third, we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate families. We found that species within monotypic families are more likely to be threatened and more likely to be in decline than other species. We provide a baseline for the status of families at risk of extinction to catalyse conservation action. This work continues a trend of highlighting neglected groups-such as testudines, crocodylians, amphibians and chondrichthyans-as conservation priorities from a phylogenetic perspective.

A globally integrated structure of taxonomy to support biodiversity science and conservation

All aspects of biodiversity research, from taxonomy to conservation, rely on data associated with species names. Effective integration of names across multiple fields is paramount and depends on the coordination and organization of taxonomic data. We assess current efforts and find that even key applications for well-studied taxa still lack commonality in taxonomic information required for integration. We identify essential taxonomic elements from our interoperability assessment to support improved access and integration of taxonomic data. A stronger focus on these elements has the potential to involve taxonomic communities in biodiversity science and overcome broken linkages currently limiting research capacity. We encourage a community effort to democratize taxonomic expertise and language in order to facilitate maximum interoperability and integration.

A globally synthesised and flagged bee occurrence dataset and cleaning workflow

Species occurrence data are foundational for research, conservation, and science communication, but the limited availability and accessibility of reliable data represents a major obstacle, particularly for insects, which face mounting pressures. We present BeeBDC, a new R package, and a global bee occurrence dataset to address this issue. We combined >18.3 million bee occurrence records from multiple public repositories (GBIF, SCAN, iDigBio, USGS, ALA) and smaller datasets, then standardised, flagged, deduplicated, and cleaned the data using the reproducible BeeBDC R-workflow. Specifically, we harmonised species names (following established global taxonomy), country names, and collection dates and, we added record-level flags for a series of potential quality issues. These data are provided in two formats, "cleaned" and "flagged-but-uncleaned". The BeeBDC package with online documentation provides end users the ability to modify filtering parameters to address their research questions. By publishing reproducible R workflows and globally cleaned datasets, we can increase the accessibility and reliability of downstream analyses. This workflow can be implemented for other taxa to support research and conservation.

Conservation macrogenetics: harnessing genetic data to meet conservation commitments

Genetic biodiversity is rapidly gaining attention in global conservation policy. However, for almost all species, conservation relevant, population-level genetic data are lacking, limiting the extent to which genetic diversity can be used for conservation policy and decision-making. Macrogenetics is an emerging discipline that explores the patterns and processes underlying population genetic composition at broad taxonomic and spatial scales by aggregating and reanalyzing thousands of published genetic datasets. Here we argue that focusing macrogenetic tools on conservation needs, or conservation macrogenetics, will enhance decision-making for conservation practice and fill key data gaps for global policy. Conservation macrogenetics provides an empirical basis for better understanding the complexity and resilience of biological systems and, thus, how anthropogenic drivers and policy decisions affect biodiversity.

A high-resolution canopy height model of the Earth

The worldwide variation in vegetation height is fundamental to the global carbon cycle and central to the functioning of ecosystems and their biodiversity. Geospatially explicit and, ideally, highly resolved information is required to manage terrestrial ecosystems, mitigate climate change and prevent biodiversity loss. Here we present a comprehensive global canopy height map at 10 m ground sampling distance for the year 2020. We have developed a probabilistic deep learning model that fuses sparse height data from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) space-borne LiDAR mission with dense optical satellite images from Sentinel-2. This model retrieves canopy-top height from Sentinel-2 images anywhere on Earth and quantifies the uncertainty in these estimates. Our approach improves the retrieval of tall canopies with typically high carbon stocks. According to our map, only 5% of the global landmass is covered by trees taller than 30 m. Further, we find that only 34% of these tall canopies are located within protected areas. Thus, the approach can serve ongoing efforts in forest conservation and has the potential to foster advances in climate, carbon and biodiversity modelling.

A vision for incorporating human mobility in the study of human-wildlife interactions

As human activities increasingly shape land- and seascapes, understanding human-wildlife interactions is imperative for preserving biodiversity. Habitats are impacted not only by static modifications, such as roads, buildings and other infrastructure, but also by the dynamic movement of people and their vehicles occurring over shorter time scales. Although there is increasing realization that both components of human activity substantially affect wildlife, capturing more dynamic processes in ecological studies has proved challenging. Here we propose a conceptual framework for developing a 'dynamic human footprint' that explicitly incorporates human mobility, providing a key link between anthropogenic stressors and ecological impacts across spatiotemporal scales. Specifically, the dynamic human footprint integrates a range of metrics to fully acknowledge the time-varying nature of human activities and to enable scale-appropriate assessments of their impacts on wildlife behaviour, demography and distributions. We review existing terrestrial and marine human-mobility data products and provide a roadmap for how these could be integrated and extended to enable more comprehensive analyses of human impacts on biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Landscape-scale benefits of protected areas for tropical biodiversity

The United Nations recently agreed to major expansions of global protected areas (PAs) to slow biodiversity declines1. However, although reserves often reduce habitat loss, their efficacy at preserving animal diversity and their influence on biodiversity in surrounding unprotected areas remain unclear2-5. Unregulated hunting can empty PAs of large animals6, illegal tree felling can degrade habitat quality7, and parks can simply displace disturbances such as logging and hunting to unprotected areas of the landscape8 (a phenomenon called leakage). Alternatively, well-functioning PAs could enhance animal diversity within reserves as well as in nearby unprotected sites9 (an effect called spillover). Here we test whether PAs across mega-diverse Southeast Asia contribute to vertebrate conservation inside and outside their boundaries. Reserves increased all facets of bird diversity. Large reserves were also associated with substantially enhanced mammal diversity in the adjacent unprotected landscape. Rather than PAs generating leakage that deteriorated ecological conditions elsewhere, our results are consistent with PAs inducing spillover that benefits biodiversity in surrounding areas. These findings support the United Nations goal of achieving 30% PA coverage by 2030 by demonstrating that PAs are associated with higher vertebrate diversity both inside their boundaries and in the broader landscape.

Camera trapping expands the view into global biodiversity and its change

Growing threats to biodiversity demand timely, detailed information on species occurrence, diversity and abundance at large scales. Camera traps (CTs), combined with computer vision models, provide an efficient method to survey species of certain taxa with high spatio-temporal resolution. We test the potential of CTs to close biodiversity knowledge gaps by comparing CT records of terrestrial mammals and birds from the recently released Wildlife Insights platform to publicly available occurrences from many observation types in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. In locations with CTs, we found they sampled a greater number of days (mean = 133 versus 57 days) and documented additional species (mean increase of 1% of expected mammals). For species with CT data, we found CTs provided novel documentation of their ranges (93% of mammals and 48% of birds). Countries with the largest boost in data coverage were in the historically underrepresented southern hemisphere. Although embargoes increase data providers' willingness to share data, they cause a lag in data availability. Our work shows that the continued collection and mobilization of CT data, especially when combined with data sharing that supports attribution and privacy, has the potential to offer a critical lens into biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Paleoenvironments shaped the exchange of terrestrial vertebrates across Wallace's Line

Faunal turnover in Indo-Australia across Wallace's Line is one of the most recognizable patterns in biogeography and has catalyzed debate about the role of evolutionary and geoclimatic history in biotic interchanges. Here, analysis of more than 20,000 vertebrate species with a model of geoclimate and biological diversification shows that broad precipitation tolerance and dispersal ability were key for exchange across the deep-time precipitation gradient spanning the region. Sundanian (Southeast Asian) lineages evolved in a climate similar to the humid "stepping stones" of Wallacea, facilitating colonization of the Sahulian (Australian) continental shelf. By contrast, Sahulian lineages predominantly evolved in drier conditions, hampering establishment in Sunda and shaping faunal distinctiveness. We demonstrate how the history of adaptation to past environmental conditions shapes asymmetrical colonization and global biogeographic structure.

A global phylogeny of butterflies reveals their evolutionary history, ancestral hosts and biogeographic origins

Butterflies are a diverse and charismatic insect group that are thought to have evolved with plants and dispersed throughout the world in response to key geological events. However, these hypotheses have not been extensively tested because a comprehensive phylogenetic framework and datasets for butterfly larval hosts and global distributions are lacking. We sequenced 391 genes from nearly 2,300 butterfly species, sampled from 90 countries and 28 specimen collections, to reconstruct a new phylogenomic tree of butterflies representing 92% of all genera. Our phylogeny has strong support for nearly all nodes and demonstrates that at least 36 butterfly tribes require reclassification. Divergence time analyses imply an origin ~100 million years ago for butterflies and indicate that all but one family were present before the K/Pg extinction event. We aggregated larval host datasets and global distribution records and found that butterflies are likely to have first fed on Fabaceae and originated in what is now the Americas. Soon after the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum, butterflies crossed Beringia and diversified in the Palaeotropics. Our results also reveal that most butterfly species are specialists that feed on only one larval host plant family. However, generalist butterflies that consume two or more plant families usually feed on closely related plants.

The build-up of the present-day tropical diversity of tetrapods

The extraordinary number of species in the tropics when compared to the extra-tropics is probably the most prominent and consistent pattern in biogeography, suggesting that overarching processes regulate this diversity gradient. A major challenge to characterizing which processes are at play relies on quantifying how the frequency and determinants of tropical and extra-tropical speciation, extinction, and dispersal events shaped evolutionary radiations. We address this question by developing and applying spatiotemporal phylogenetic and paleontological models of diversification for tetrapod species incorporating paleoenvironmental variation. Our phylogenetic model results show that area, energy, or species richness did not uniformly affect speciation rates across tetrapods and dispute expectations of a latitudinal gradient in speciation rates. Instead, both neontological and fossil evidence coincide in underscoring the role of extra-tropical extinctions and the outflow of tropical species in shaping biodiversity. These diversification dynamics accurately predict present-day levels of species richness across latitudes and uncover temporal idiosyncrasies but spatial generality across the major tetrapod radiations.

Scale-sensitivity in the measurement and interpretation of environmental niches

Species environmental niches are central to ecology, evolution, and global change research, but their characterization and interpretation depend on the spatial scale (specifically, the spatial grain) of their measurement. We find that the spatial grain of niche measurement is usually uninformed by ecological processes and varies by orders of magnitude. We illustrate the consequences of this variation for the volume, position, and shape of niche estimates, and discuss how it interacts with geographic range size, habitat specialization, and environmental heterogeneity. Spatial grain significantly affects the study of niche breadth, environmental suitability, niche evolution, niche tracking, and climate change effects. These and other fields will benefit from a more mechanism-informed choice of spatial grain and cross-grain evaluations that integrate different data sources.

The EDGE2 protocol: Advancing the prioritisation of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered species for practical conservation action

The conservation of evolutionary history has been linked to increased benefits for humanity and can be captured by phylogenetic diversity (PD). The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric has, since 2007, been used to prioritise threatened species for practical conservation that embody large amounts of evolutionary history. While there have been important research advances since 2007, they have not been adopted in practice because of a lack of consensus in the conservation community. Here, building from an interdisciplinary workshop to update the existing EDGE approach, we present an "EDGE2" protocol that draws on a decade of research and innovation to develop an improved, consistent methodology for prioritising species conservation efforts. Key advances include methods for dealing with uncertainty and accounting for the extinction risk of closely related species. We describe EDGE2 in terms of distinct components to facilitate future revisions to its constituent parts without needing to reconsider the whole. We illustrate EDGE2 by applying it to the world's mammals. As we approach a crossroads for global biodiversity policy, this Consensus View shows how collaboration between academic and applied conservation biologists can guide effective and practical priority-setting to conserve biodiversity.

The global distribution of known and undiscovered ant biodiversity

Invertebrates constitute the majority of animal species and are critical for ecosystem functioning and services. Nonetheless, global invertebrate biodiversity patterns and their congruences with vertebrates remain largely unknown. We resolve the first high-resolution (~20-km) global diversity map for a major invertebrate clade, ants, using biodiversity informatics, range modeling, and machine learning to synthesize existing knowledge and predict the distribution of undiscovered diversity. We find that ants and different vertebrate groups have distinct features in their patterns of richness and rarity, underscoring the need to consider a diversity of taxa in conservation. However, despite their phylogenetic and physiological divergence, ant distributions are not highly anomalous relative to variation among vertebrate clades. Furthermore, our models predict that rarity centers largely overlap (78%), suggesting that general forces shape endemism patterns across taxa. This raises confidence that conservation of areas important for small-ranged vertebrates will benefit invertebrates while providing a "treasure map" to guide future discovery.

Temperature-dependent evolutionary speed shapes the evolution of biodiversity patterns across tetrapod radiations

Biodiversity varies predictably with environmental energy around the globe, but the underlaying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. The evolutionary speed hypothesis predicts that environmental kinetic energy shapes variation in speciation rates through temperature- or life history-dependent rates of evolution. To test whether variation in evolutionary speed can explain the relationship between energy and biodiversity in birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles, we simulated diversification over 65 million years of geological and climatic change with a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary simulation model. We modelled four distinct evolutionary scenarios in which speciation-completion rates were dependent on temperature (M1), life history (M2), temperature and life history (M3), or were independent of temperature and life-history (M0). To assess the agreement between simulated and empirical data, we performed model selection by fitting supervised machine learning models to multidimensional biodiversity patterns. We show that a model with temperature-dependent rates of speciation (M1) consistently had the strongest support. In contrast to statistical inferences, which showed no general relationships between temperature and speciation rates in tetrapods, we demonstrate how process-based modelling can disentangle the causes behind empirical biodiversity patterns. Our study highlights how environmental energy has played a fundamental role in the evolution of biodiversity over deep time.

Country Compendium of the Global Register of Introduced and Invasive Species

The Country Compendium of the Global Register of Introduced and Invasive Species (GRIIS) is a collation of data across 196 individual country checklists of alien species, along with a designation of those species with evidence of impact at a country level. The Compendium provides a baseline for monitoring the distribution and invasion status of all major taxonomic groups, and can be used for the purpose of global analyses of introduced (alien, non-native, exotic) and invasive species (invasive alien species), including regional, single and multi-species taxon assessments and comparisons. It enables exploration of gaps and inferred absences of species across countries, and also provides one means for updating individual GRIIS Checklists. The Country Compendium is, for example, instrumental, along with data on first records of introduction, for assessing and reporting on invasive alien species targets, including for the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals. The GRIIS Country Compendium provides a baseline and mechanism for tracking the spread of introduced and invasive alien species across countries globally.

Design Type(s)	Data integration objective ● Observation design
Measurement Type(s)	Alien species occurrence ● Evidence of impact invasive alien species assessment objective
Technology Type(s)	Agent expert ● Data collation
Factor Type(s)	Geographic location ● Origin / provenance ● Habitat
Sample Characteristics - Organism	Animalia ● Bacteria ● Chromista ● Fungi ● Plantae ● Protista (Protozoa) ● Viruses
Sample Characteristics - Location	Global countries

Measurement(s)	Presence of invasive alien species
Technology Type(s)	Literature and datasets
Factor Type(s)	scientificName
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Multitaxon
Sample Characteristic - Environment	Multihabitat
Sample Characteristic - Location	Global

Macroevolutionary dynamics of climatic niche space

How and why lineages evolve along with niche space as they diversify and adapt to different environments is fundamental to evolution. Progress has been hampered by the difficulties of linking a robust empirical characterization of species niches with flexible evolutionary models that describe their evolution. Consequently, the relative influence of abiotic and biotic factors remains poorly understood. Here, we characterize species' two-dimensional temperature and precipitation niche space occupied (i.e. species niche envelope) as complex geometries and assess their evolution across all Aves using a model that captures heterogeneous evolutionary rates on time-calibrated phylogenies. We find that extant birds coevolved from warm, mesic climatic niches into colder and drier environments and responded to the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary with a dramatic increase in disparity. Contrary to expectations of subsiding rates of niche evolution, our results show that overall rates have increased steadily, with some lineages experiencing exceptionally high evolutionary rates, associated with the colonization of novel niche spaces, and others showing niche stasis. Both competition- and environmental change-driven niche evolution transpire and result in highly heterogeneous rates near the present. Our findings highlight the growing ecological and conservation insights arising from the model-based integration of comprehensive environmental and phylogenetic information.

Expert range maps of global mammal distributions harmonised to three taxonomic authorities

AIM

Comprehensive, global information on species' occurrences is an essential biodiversity variable and central to a range of applications in ecology, evolution, biogeography and conservation. Expert range maps often represent a species' only available distributional information and play an increasing role in conservation assessments and macroecology. We provide global range maps for the native ranges of all extant mammal species harmonised to the taxonomy of the Mammal Diversity Database (MDD) mobilised from two sources, the Handbook of the Mammals of the World (HMW) and the Illustrated Checklist of the Mammals of the World (CMW).

LOCATION

Global.

TAXON

All extant mammal species.

METHODS

Range maps were digitally interpreted, georeferenced, error-checked and subsequently taxonomically aligned between the HMW (6253 species), the CMW (6431 species) and the MDD taxonomies (6362 species).

RESULTS

Range maps can be evaluated and visualised in an online map browser at Map of Life (mol.org) and accessed for individual or batch download for non-commercial use.

MAIN CONCLUSION

Expert maps of species' global distributions are limited in their spatial detail and temporal specificity, but form a useful basis for broad-scale characterizations and model-based integration with other data. We provide georeferenced range maps for the native ranges of all extant mammal species as shapefiles, with species-level metadata and source information packaged together in geodatabase format. Across the three taxonomic sources our maps entail, there are 1784 taxonomic name differences compared to the maps currently available on the IUCN Red List website. The expert maps provided here are harmonised to the MDD taxonomic authority and linked to a community of online tools that will enable transparent future updates and version control.

Animal tracking moves community ecology: Opportunities and challenges

1. Individual decisions regarding how, why, and when organisms interact with one another and with their environment scale up to shape patterns and processes in communities. Recent evidence has firmly established the prevalence of intraspecific variation in nature and its relevance in community ecology, yet challenges associated with collecting data on large numbers of individual conspecifics and heterospecifics has hampered integration of individual variation into community ecology. 2. Nevertheless, recent technological and statistical advances in GPS-tracking, remote sensing, and behavioral ecology offer a toolbox for integrating intraspecific variation into community processes. More than simply describing where organisms go, movement data provide unique information about interactions and environmental associations from which a true individual-to-community framework can be built. 3. By linking the movement paths of both conspecifics and heterospecifics with environmental data, ecologists can now simultaneously quantify intra- and interspecific variation regarding the Eltonian (biotic interactions) and Grinnellian (environmental conditions) factors underpinning community assemblage and dynamics, yet substantial logistical and analytical challenges must be addressed for these approaches to realize their full potential. 4. Across communities, empirical integration of Eltonian and Grinnellian factors can support conservation applications and reveal metacommunity dynamics via tracking-based dispersal data. As the logistical and analytical challenges associated with multi-species tracking are surmounted, we envision a future where individual movements and their ecological and environmental signatures will bring resolution to many enduring issues in community ecology.

Biological Earth observation with animal sensors

Space-based tracking technology using low-cost miniature tags is now delivering data on fine-scale animal movement at near-global scale. Linked with remotely sensed environmental data, this offers a biological lens on habitat integrity and connectivity for conservation and human health; a global network of animal sentinels of environmental change.

A cloud-based toolbox for the versatile environmental annotation of biodiversity data

A vast range of research applications in biodiversity sciences requires integrating primary species, genetic, or ecosystem data with other environmental data. This integration requires a consideration of the spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the data and processes in question. But a versatile and scale flexible environmental annotation of biodiversity data remains constrained by technical hurdles. Existing tools have streamlined the intersection of occurrence records with gridded environmental data but have remained limited in their ability to address a range of spatial and temporal grains, especially for large datasets. We present the Spatiotemporal Observation Annotation Tool (STOAT), a cloud-based toolbox for flexible biodiversity–environment annotations. STOAT is optimized for large biodiversity datasets and allows user-specified spatial and temporal resolution and buffering in support of environmental characterizations that account for the uncertainty and scale of data and of relevant processes. The tool offers these services for a growing set of near global, remotely sensed, or modeled environmental data, including Landsat, MODIS, EarthEnv, and CHELSA. STOAT includes a user-friendly, web-based dashboard that provides tools for annotation task management and result visualization, linked to Map of Life, and a dedicated R package (rstoat) for programmatic access. We demonstrate STOAT functionality with several examples that illustrate phenological variation and spatial and temporal scale dependence of environmental characteristics of birds at a continental scale. We expect STOAT to facilitate broader exploration and assessment of the scale dependence of observations and processes in ecology.

In ecology and evolution, processes, data collection, and inference or prediction usually occur at different scales in space and time. This study introduces a cloud-based toolbox for the flexible fusion of biodiversity records with remotely sensed and other environmental information that supports an assessment and accounting of such scale dependencies.

Areas of global importance for conserving terrestrial biodiversity, carbon and water

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed to identify which land areas have the potential to generate the greatest synergies between conserving biodiversity and nature's contributions to people. Here we present results from a joint optimization that minimizes the number of threatened species, maximizes carbon retention and water quality regulation, and ranks terrestrial conservation priorities globally. We found that selecting the top-ranked 30% and 50% of terrestrial land area would conserve respectively 60.7% and 85.3% of the estimated total carbon stock and 66% and 89.8% of all clean water, in addition to meeting conservation targets for 57.9% and 79% of all species considered. Our data and prioritization further suggest that adequately conserving all species considered (vertebrates and plants) would require giving conservation attention to ~70% of the terrestrial land surface. If priority was given to biodiversity only, managing 30% of optimally located land area for conservation may be sufficient to meet conservation targets for 81.3% of the terrestrial plant and vertebrate species considered. Our results provide a global assessment of where land could be optimally managed for conservation. We discuss how such a spatial prioritization framework can support the implementation of the biodiversity and climate conventions.

Molecules and fossils tell distinct yet complementary stories of mammal diversification

Reconstructing the tempo at which biodiversity arose is a fundamental goal of evolutionary biologists, yet the relative merits of evolutionary-rate estimates are debated based on whether they are derived from the fossil record or time-calibrated phylogenies (timetrees) of living species. Extinct lineages unsampled in timetrees are known to "pull" speciation rates downward, but the temporal scale at which this bias matters is unclear. To investigate this problem, we compare mammalian diversification-rate signatures in a credible set of molecular timetrees (n = 5,911 species, ∼70% from DNA) to those in fossil genus durations (n = 5,320). We use fossil extinction rates to correct or "push" the timetree-based (pulled) speciation-rate estimates, finding a surge of speciation during the Paleocene (∼66-56 million years ago, Ma) between the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). However, about two-thirds of the K-Pg-to-PETM originating taxa did not leave modern descendants, indicating that this rate signature is likely undetectable from extant lineages alone. For groups without substantial fossil records, thankfully all is not lost. Pushed and pulled speciation rates converge starting ∼10 Ma and are equal at the present day when recent evolutionary processes can be estimated without bias using species-specific "tip" rates of speciation. Clade-wide moments of tip rates also enable enriched inference, as the skewness of tip rates is shown to approximate a clade's extent of past diversification-rate shifts. Molecular timetrees need fossil-correction to address deep-time questions, but they are sufficient for shallower time questions where extinctions are fewer.

Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment

The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.

Individual environmental niches in mobile organisms

Individual variation is increasingly recognized as a central component of ecological processes, but its role in structuring environmental niche associations remains largely unknown. Species' responses to environmental conditions are ultimately determined by the niches of single individuals, yet environmental associations are typically captured only at the level of species. Here, we develop scenarios for how individual variation may combine to define the compound environmental niche of populations, use extensive movement data to document individual environmental niche variation, test associated hypotheses of niche configuration, and examine the consistency of individual niches over time. For 45 individual white storks (Ciconia ciconia; 116 individual-year combinations), we uncover high variability in individual environmental associations, consistency of individual niches over time, and moderate to strong niche specialization. Within populations, environmental niches follow a nested pattern, with individuals arranged along a specialist-to-generalist gradient. These results reject common assumptions of individual niche equivalency among conspecifics, as well as the separation of individual niches into disparate parts of environmental space. These findings underscore the need for a more thorough consideration of individualistic environmental responses in global change research.

Shortfalls and opportunities in terrestrial vertebrate species discovery

Much of biodiversity remains undiscovered, causing species and their functions to remain unrealized and potentially lost in ignorance. Here we use extensive species-level data in a time-to-event model framework to identify taxonomic and geographic discovery gaps in terrestrial vertebrates. Biological, environmental and sociological factors all affect discovery probability and together provide strong predictive ability for species discovery. Our model identifies distinct taxonomic and geographic unevenness in future discovery potential, with greatest opportunities for amphibians and reptiles, and for Neotropical and Indo-Malayan forests. Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar and Colombia emerge as holding greatest discovery opportunities, with a quarter of potential discoveries estimated. These findings highlight the importance of international policy support for basic taxonomic research and the potential of quantitative models to aid species discovery.

Global functional and phylogenetic structure of avian assemblages across elevation and latitude

Mountain systems are exceptionally species rich, yet the associated elevational gradients in functional and phylogenetic diversity and their consistency across latitude remain little understood. Here, we document how avian functional and phylogenetic diversity and structure vary along all major elevational gradients worldwide and uncover strong latitudinal differences. Assemblages in warm tropical lowlands and cold temperate highlands are marked by high functional overdispersion and distinctiveness, whereas tropical highlands and temperate lowlands appear strongly functionally clustered and redundant. We additionally find strong geographic variation in the interplay of phylogenetic and functional structure, with strongest deviations between the two in temperate highlands. This latitudinal and elevational variation in assemblage functional structure is underpinned by nuanced shifts in the position, shape and composition of multivariate trait space. We find that, independent of latitude, high-elevation assemblages emerge as exceptionally susceptible to functional change.

Hierarchical multi-grain models improve descriptions of species' environmental associations, distribution, and abundance

The characterization of species' environmental niches and spatial distribution predictions based on them are now central to much of ecology and conservation, but implicitly requires decisions about the appropriate spatial scale (i.e., grain) of analysis. Ecological theory and empirical evidence suggest that range-resident species respond to their environment at two characteristic, hierarchical spatial grains: (1) response grain, the (relatively fine) grain at which an individual uses environmental resources, and (2) occupancy grain, the (relatively coarse) grain equivalent to a typical home range. We use a multi-grain (MG) occupancy model, aided by fine-grain remotely sensed imagery, to simultaneously estimate species-environment associations at both grains, conduct grain optimization to measure response grain, and apply this analysis framework to an example species: a medium-sized bird (Tockus deckeni) in a heterogeneous East African landscape. Based on home range analysis of movement data, we calculate an occupancy grain of 1 km for T. deckeni. Using a grain optimization procedure across 32 grains from 10 to 500 m, we identify 60 m as the most strongly supported response grain for a suite of environmental variables, slightly coarser than opportunistic behavioral observations would have suggested. Validation confirms that the accuracy of the optimized MG occupancy model substantially exceeds that of equivalent single-grain (SG) occupancy models. We further use a simulation approach to assess the potential impacts of accounting for the multi-scale structure of species' environmental requirements on estimates of population size. We find that the more strongly supported MG approach consistently predicts a minimum population size in the study landscape that is much lower than that provided by the SG model. This suggests that SG approaches commonly used in conservation applications could lead to overly optimistic abundance and population estimates, and that the MG approach may be more appropriate for supporting species conservation goals. More generally, we conclude that multi-grain approaches of the sort presented, and increasingly enabled by growing high-resolution remotely sensed data, hold great promise for offering a more mechanistic framework for assessing the appropriate grain(s) for population monitoring and management and enable more reliable estimates of abundances and species' distributions.

Phylogenetic and spatial distribution of evolutionary diversification, isolation, and threat in turtles and crocodilians (non-avian archosauromorphs)

Background

The origin of turtles and crocodiles and their easily recognized body forms dates to the Triassic and Jurassic. Despite their long-term success, extant species diversity is low, and endangerment is extremely high compared to other terrestrial vertebrate groups, with ~ 65% of ~ 25 crocodilian and ~ 360 turtle species now threatened by exploitation and habitat loss. Here, we combine available molecular and morphological evidence with statistical and machine learning algorithms to present a phylogenetically informed, comprehensive assessment of diversification, threat status, and evolutionary distinctiveness of all extant species.

Results

In contrast to other terrestrial vertebrates and their own diversity in the fossil record, the recent extant lineages of turtles and crocodilians have not experienced any global mass extinctions or lineage-wide shifts in diversification rate or body-size evolution over time. We predict threat statuses for 114 as-yet unassessed or data-deficient species and identify a concentration of threatened turtles and crocodilians in South and Southeast Asia, western Africa, and the eastern Amazon. We find that unlike other terrestrial vertebrate groups, extinction risk increases with evolutionary distinctiveness: a disproportionate amount of phylogenetic diversity is concentrated in evolutionarily isolated, at-risk taxa, particularly those with small geographic ranges. Our findings highlight the important role of geographic determinants of extinction risk, particularly those resulting from anthropogenic habitat-disturbance, which affect species across body sizes and ecologies.

Conclusions

Extant turtles and crocodilians maintain unique, conserved morphologies which make them globally recognizable. Many species are threatened due to exploitation and global change. We use taxonomically complete, dated molecular phylogenies and various approaches to produce a comprehensive assessment of threat status and evolutionary distinctiveness of both groups. Neither group exhibits significant overall shifts in diversification rate or body-size evolution, or any signature of global mass extinctions in recent, extant lineages. However, the most evolutionarily distinct species tend to be the most threatened, and species richness and extinction risk are centered in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance, particularly South and Southeast Asia. Range size is the strongest predictor of threat, and a disproportionate amount of evolutionary diversity is at risk of imminent extinction.

Global priorities for conservation of reptilian phylogenetic diversity in the face of human impacts

Phylogenetic diversity measures are increasingly used in conservation planning to represent aspects of biodiversity beyond that captured by species richness. Here we develop two new metrics that combine phylogenetic diversity and the extent of human pressure across the spatial distribution of species - one metric valuing regions and another prioritising species. We evaluate these metrics for reptiles, which have been largely neglected in previous studies, and contrast these results with equivalent calculations for all terrestrial vertebrate groups. We find that regions under high human pressure coincide with the most irreplaceable areas of reptilian diversity, and more than expected by chance. The highest priority reptile species score far above the top mammal and bird species, and reptiles include a disproportionate number of species with insufficient extinction risk data. Data Deficient species are, in terms of our species-level metric, comparable to Critically Endangered species and therefore may require urgent conservation attention.

Phylogenetic and Trait-Based Prediction of Extinction Risk for Data-Deficient Amphibians

Amphibians are among the most highly threatened lineages, with at least 2,000 species estimated to be in danger of extinction [1, 2]. Alarmingly, another ∼2,200 species (∼25% of all ∼7,900 known species) are data deficient or not evaluated (hereinafter termed data deficient) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) [1]. Without an estimate of their status, data-deficient species are usually overlooked in conservation planning and resource allocation [3]. Amphibians have the highest proportion of data-deficient species of any vertebrate group [1, 4], which highlights the need to estimate their threat status considering potentially imminent extinctions. We apply a trait-based spatio-phylogenetic statistical framework [5] to predict threat status for data-deficient species. Because ecological, geographical, and evolutionary attributes increase extinction risk [6, 7], we used geographic distribution data [1, 8], phylogenetically imputed ecological traits, and an amphibian phylogeny [9] to provide initial baseline predictions. We estimate that half of the ∼2,200 data-deficient species are threatened with extinction (vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered), primarily in the Neotropics and Southeast Asia. This increases the number of amphibian species estimated to be threatened with extinction by ∼50%. Of these, we predict that ∼500 species are endangered or critically endangered, and three may be extinct already. We highlight families that are most at risk and suggest where urgent conservation is needed to avert their loss. We show that some of the most vulnerable species may also be the most poorly known and offer an analytical framework for preliminary analysis of their threat status in the face of deficient empirical data.

Inferring the mammal tree: Species-level sets of phylogenies for questions in ecology, evolution, and conservation

Big, time-scaled phylogenies are fundamental to connecting evolutionary processes to modern biodiversity patterns. Yet inferring reliable phylogenetic trees for thousands of species involves numerous trade-offs that have limited their utility to comparative biologists. To establish a robust evolutionary timescale for all approximately 6,000 living species of mammals, we developed credible sets of trees that capture root-to-tip uncertainty in topology and divergence times. Our "backbone-and-patch" approach to tree building applies a newly assembled 31-gene supermatrix to two levels of Bayesian inference: (1) backbone relationships and ages among major lineages, using fossil node or tip dating, and (2) species-level "patch" phylogenies with nonoverlapping in-groups that each correspond to one representative lineage in the backbone. Species unsampled for DNA are either excluded ("DNA-only" trees) or imputed within taxonomic constraints using branch lengths drawn from local birth-death models ("completed" trees). Joining time-scaled patches to backbones results in species-level trees of extant Mammalia with all branches estimated under the same modeling framework, thereby facilitating rate comparisons among lineages as disparate as marsupials and placentals. We compare our phylogenetic trees to previous estimates of mammal-wide phylogeny and divergence times, finding that (1) node ages are broadly concordant among studies, and (2) recent (tip-level) rates of speciation are estimated more accurately in our study than in previous "supertree" approaches, in which unresolved nodes led to branch-length artifacts. Credible sets of mammalian phylogenetic history are now available for download at http://vertlife.org/phylosubsets, enabling investigations of long-standing questions in comparative biology.

Accumulation over evolutionary time as a major cause of biodiversity hotspots in conifers

Biodiversity hotspots are important for understanding how areas of high species richness form, but disentangling the processes that produce them is difficult. We combine geographical ranges, phylogenetic relationships and trait data for 606 conifer species in order to explore the mechanisms underlying richness hotspot formation. We identify eight richness hotspots that overlap known centres of plant endemism and diversity, and find that conifer richness hotspots occur in mountainous areas within broader regions of long-term climate stability. Conifer hotspots are not unique in their species composition, traits or phylogenetic structure; however, a large percentage of their species are not restricted to hotspots and they rarely show either a preponderance of new radiating lineages or old relictual lineages. We suggest that conifer hotspots have primarily formed as a result of lineages accumulating over evolutionary time scales in stable mountainous areas rather than through high origination, preferential retention of relictual lineages or radiation of species with unique traits, although such processes may contribute to nuanced differences among hotspots. Conifers suggest that a simple accumulation of regional diversity can generate high species richness without additional processes and that geography rather than biology may play a primary role in hotspot formation.

Evolutionarily distinct amphibians are disproportionately lost from human-modified ecosystems

Humans continue to alter terrestrial ecosystems, but our understanding of how biodiversity responds is still limited. Anthropogenic habitat conversion has been associated with the loss of evolutionarily distinct bird species at local scales, but whether this evolutionary pattern holds across other clades is unknown. We collate a global dataset on amphibian assemblages in intact forests and nearby human-modified sites to assess whether evolutionary history influences susceptibility to land conversion. We found that evolutionarily distinct amphibian species are disproportionately lost when forested habitats are converted to alternative land-uses. We tested the hypothesis that grassland-associated amphibian lineages have both higher diversification and are pre-adapted to human landscapes, but found only weak evidence supporting this. The loss of evolutionarily distinct amphibians with land conversion suggests that preserving remnant forests will be vital if we aim to preserve the amphibian tree of life in the face of mounting anthropogenic pressures.

Taxonomic and functional diversity change is scale dependent

Estimates of recent biodiversity change remain inconsistent, debated, and infrequently assessed for their functional implications. Here, we report that spatial scale and type of biodiversity measurement influence evidence of temporal biodiversity change. We show a pervasive scale dependence of temporal trends in taxonomic (TD) and functional (FD) diversity for an ~50-year record of avian assemblages from North American Breeding Bird Survey and a record of global extinctions. Average TD and FD increased at all but the global scale. Change in TD exceeded change in FD toward large scales, signaling functional resilience. Assemblage temporal dissimilarity and turnover (replacement of species or functions) declined, while nestedness (tendency of assemblages to be subsets of one another) increased with scale. Patterns of FD change varied strongly among diet and foraging guilds. We suggest that monitoring, policy, and conservation require a scale-explicit framework to account for the pervasive effect that scale has on perceived biodiversity change.