1
|
Farooq H, Harfoot M, Rahbek C, Geldmann J. Threats to reptiles at global and regional scales. Curr Biol 2024:S0960-9822(24)00447-0. [PMID: 38657609 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2024.04.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2023] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 04/03/2024] [Indexed: 04/26/2024]
Abstract
Reptiles are an important, yet often understudied, taxon in nature conservation. They play a significant role in ecosystems1 and can serve as indicators of environmental health, often responding more rapidly to human pressures than other vertebrate groups.2 At least 21% of reptiles are currently assessed as threatened with extinction by the IUCN.3 However, due to the lack of comprehensive global assessments until recently, they have been omitted from spatial studies addressing conservation or spatial prioritization (e.g., Rosauer et al.,4,5,6,7,8 Fritz and Rahbek,4,5,6,7,8 Farooq et al.,4,5,6,7,8 Meyer et al., 4,5,6,7,8 and Farooq et al.4,5,6,7,8). One important knowledge gap in conservation is the lack of spatially explicit information on the main threats to biodiversity,9 which significantly hampers our ability to respond effectively to the current biodiversity crisis.10,11 In this study, we calculate the probability of a reptile species in a specific location being affected by one of seven biodiversity threats-agriculture, climate change, hunting, invasive species, logging, pollution, and urbanization. We conducted the analysis at a global scale, using a 50 km × 50 km grid, and evaluated the impact of these threats by studying their relationship with the risk of extinction. We find that climate change, logging, pollution, and invasive species are most linked to extinction risk. However, we also show that there is considerable geographical variation in these results. Our study highlights the importance of going beyond measuring the intensity of threats to measuring the impact of these separately for various biogeographical regions of the world, with different historical contingencies, as opposed to a single global analysis treating all regions the same.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Harith Farooq
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100, Denmark; Faculty of Natural Sciences, Lúrio University, Pemba 958, Mozambique; Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg 40530, Sweden.
| | - Mike Harfoot
- Vizzuality, Calle de Fuencarral, Madrid 28010, Spain
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100, Denmark; Center for Global Mountain Biodiversity, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100, Denmark; Institute of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense M 5230, Denmark
| | - Jonas Geldmann
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100, Denmark
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Kougioumoutzis K, Constantinou I, Panitsa M. Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus's Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change. Plants (Basel) 2024; 13:1109. [PMID: 38674518 PMCID: PMC11053427 DOI: 10.3390/plants13081109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2024] [Revised: 04/11/2024] [Accepted: 04/14/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024]
Abstract
Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species' sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia's resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species' survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Maria Panitsa
- Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece; (K.K.); (I.C.)
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Hilborn R, Smith DR. Is the long-tailed macaque at risk of extinction? Am J Primatol 2024; 86:e23590. [PMID: 38124676 DOI: 10.1002/ajp.23590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2023] [Revised: 12/06/2023] [Accepted: 12/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
We review the evidence that long-tailed macaques are at risk of extinction and find that papers supporting this argument present no data supporting a hypothesized decline in abundance. These papers contain numerous misrepresentations of the published literature. Long-tailed macaques thrive in human-altered habitats, are listed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature as an invasive species of concern, and have shown the ability to increase by 7%-10% per year from low numbers, making the probability of extinction very low.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ray Hilborn
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
4
|
Bachman SP, Brown MJM, Leão TCC, Nic Lughadha E, Walker BE. Extinction risk predictions for the world's flowering plants to support their conservation. New Phytol 2024; 242:797-808. [PMID: 38437880 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/06/2024]
Abstract
More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, c. 330 000 species). We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species-level predictions. From our model predictions, we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full global, or regional Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.
Collapse
|
5
|
Cerullo G, Worthington T, Brancalion P, Brandão J, d'Albertas F, Eyres A, Swinfield T, Edwards D, Balmford A. Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17208. [PMID: 38441414 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2023] [Revised: 12/23/2023] [Accepted: 01/07/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024]
Abstract
Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Pedro Brancalion
- Department of Forest Sciences, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Joyce Brandão
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Francisco d'Albertas
- International Institute for Sustainability, Estrada Dona Castorina, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Alison Eyres
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - David Edwards
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Andrew Balmford
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Berger D, Liljestrand-Rönn J. Environmental complexity mitigates the demographic impact of sexual selection. Ecol Lett 2024; 27:e14355. [PMID: 38225825 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Revised: 11/30/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 01/17/2024]
Abstract
Sexual selection and the evolution of costly mating strategies can negatively impact population viability and adaptive potential. While laboratory studies have documented outcomes stemming from these processes, recent observations suggest that the demographic impact of sexual selection is contingent on the environment and therefore may have been overestimated in simple laboratory settings. Here we find support for this claim. We exposed copies of beetle populations, previously evolved with or without sexual selection, to a 10-generation heatwave while maintaining half of them in a simple environment and the other half in a complex environment. Populations with an evolutionary history of sexual selection maintained larger sizes and more stable growth rates in complex (relative to simple) environments, an effect not seen in populations evolved without sexual selection. These results have implications for evolutionary forecasting and suggest that the negative demographic impact of sexually selected mating strategies might be low in natural populations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- David Berger
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | |
Collapse
|
7
|
Henry EG, Santini L, Butchart SHM, González-Suárez M, Lucas PM, Benítez-López A, Mancini G, Jung M, Cardoso P, Zizka A, Meyer C, Akçakaya HR, Berryman AJ, Cazalis V, Di Marco M. Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17119. [PMID: 38273572 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 12/02/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Comparative extinction risk analysis-which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics-has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Etienne G Henry
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Manuela González-Suárez
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Pablo M Lucas
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
- Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Ana Benítez-López
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Giordano Mancini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Martin Jung
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Management Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Pedro Cardoso
- Faculty of Sciences, CE3C - Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Sciences, CHANGE - Institute for Global Change and Sustainability, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe), Finnish Museum of Natural History Luomus, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Alexander Zizka
- Department of Biology, Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Carsten Meyer
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - H Reşit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, New York, USA
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
| | | | - Victor Cazalis
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Laloë JO, Schofield G, Hays GC. Climate warming and sea turtle sex ratios across the globe. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17004. [PMID: 37961789 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2023] [Revised: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 10/02/2023] [Indexed: 11/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate warming and the feminization of populations due to temperature-dependent sex determination may threaten sea turtles with extinction. To identify sites of heightened risk, we examined sex ratio data and patterns of climate change over multiple decades for 64 nesting sites spread across the globe. Over the last 62 years the mean change in air temperature was 0.85°C per century (SD = 0.65°C, range = -0.53 to +2.5°C, n = 64 nesting sites). Temperatures increased at 40 of the 64 study sites. Female-skewed hatchling or juvenile sex ratios occurred at 57 of the 64 sites, with skews >90% female at 17 sites. We did not uncover a relationship between the extent of warming and sex ratio (r62 = -0.03, p = .802, n = 64 nesting sites). Hence, our results suggest that female-hatchling sex ratio skews are not simply a consequence of recent warming but have likely persisted at some sites for many decades. So other factors aside from recent warming must drive these variations in sex ratios across nesting sites, such as variations in nesting behaviour (e.g. nest depth), substrate (e.g. sand albedo), shading available and rainfall patterns. While overall across sites recent warming is not linked to hatchling sex ratio, at some sites there is both is a high female skew and high warming, such as Raine Island (Australia; 99% female green turtles; 1.27°C warming per century), nesting beaches in Cyprus (97.1% female green turtles; 1.68°C warming per century) and in the Dutch Caribbean (St Eustatius; 91.5% female leatherback turtles; 1.15°C warming per century). These may be among the first sites where management intervention is needed to increase male production. Continued monitoring of sand temperatures and sex ratios are recommended to help identify when high incubation temperatures threaten population viability.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jacques-Olivier Laloë
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Gail Schofield
- School of Biological and Behavioural Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Graeme C Hays
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Mancini G, Santini L, Cazalis V, Akçakaya HR, Lucas PM, Brooks TM, Foden W, Di Marco M. A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments. Conserv Biol 2023:e14227. [PMID: 38111977 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2023] [Revised: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 10/05/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023]
Abstract
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Giordano Mancini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Victor Cazalis
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - H Reşit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, New York, New York, USA
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
| | - Pablo M Lucas
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Thomas M Brooks
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
- World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), University of The Philippines Los Baños, Los Baños, Philippines
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Wendy Foden
- Cape Research Centre, South African National Parks, Cape Town, South Africa
- Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and Zoology, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Scherer L, Rosa F, Sun Z, Michelsen O, De Laurentiis V, Marques A, Pfister S, Verones F, Kuipers KJJ. Biodiversity Impact Assessment Considering Land Use Intensities and Fragmentation. Environ Sci Technol 2023; 57:19612-19623. [PMID: 37972360 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c04191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
Land use is a major threat to terrestrial biodiversity. Life cycle assessment is a tool that can assess such threats and thereby support environmental decision-making. Within the Global Guidance for Life Cycle Impact Assessment (GLAM) project, the Life Cycle Initiative hosted by UN Environment aims to create a life cycle impact assessment method across multiple impact categories, including land use impacts on ecosystem quality represented by regional and global species richness. A working group of the GLAM project focused on such land use impacts and developed new characterization factors to combine the strengths of two separate recent advancements in the field: the consideration of land use intensities and land fragmentation. The data sets to parametrize the underlying model are also updated from previous models. The new characterization factors cover five species groups (plants, amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles) and five broad land use types (cropland, pasture, plantations, managed forests, and urban land) at three intensity levels (minimal, light, and intense). They are available at the level of terrestrial ecoregions and countries. This paper documents the development of the characterization factors, provides practical guidance for their use, and critically assesses the strengths and remaining shortcomings.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Laura Scherer
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, 2333 CC Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Francesca Rosa
- Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Zhongxiao Sun
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Ottar Michelsen
- Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | | | - Alexandra Marques
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Stephan Pfister
- Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Francesca Verones
- Industrial Ecology Programme, Department for Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Koen J J Kuipers
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences (RIBES), Radboud University, 6525AJ Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Martínez-Núñez C, Martínez-Prentice R, García-Navas V. Protected area coverage of vulnerable regions to conserve functional diversity of birds. Conserv Biol 2023; 37:e14131. [PMID: 37259609 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2023] [Revised: 05/21/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Global-change drivers are increasing the rates of species extinction worldwide, posing a serious threat to ecosystem functioning. Preserving the functional diversity of species is currently a priority to mitigate abrupt biodiversity loss in the coming decades. Therefore, understanding what factors better predict functional diversity loss in bird assemblages at a global scale and how existing protected areas cover the most vulnerable regions is of key importance for conservation. We examined the environmental factors associated with the risk of functional diversity loss under 3 scenarios of bird species extinction based on species distribution range size, generation length, and International Union for the Conservation of Nature conservation status. Then, we identified regions that deserve special conservation focus. We also assessed how efficiently extant terrestrial protected areas preserve particularly vulnerable bird assemblages based on predicted scenarios of extinction risk. The vulnerability of bird functional diversity increased as net primary productivity, land-use diversity, mean annual temperature, and elevation decreased. Low values for these environmental factors were associated with a higher risk of functional diversity loss worldwide through two mechanisms: one independent of species richness that affects assemblages with low levels of niche packing and high functional dissimilarity among species, and the other that affects assemblages with low species richness and high rates of extinction. Existing protected areas ineffectively safeguarded regions with a high risk of losing functional diversity in the next decades. The global predictors and the underlying mechanisms of functional vulnerability in bird assemblages we identified can inform strategies aimed at preserving bird-driven ecological functions worldwide.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Martínez-Núñez
- Department of Integrative Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana EBD (CSIC), Seville, Spain
| | - Ricardo Martínez-Prentice
- Institute of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Vicente García-Navas
- Department of Integrative Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana EBD (CSIC), Seville, Spain
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Cazalis V, Santini L, Lucas PM, González-Suárez M, Hoffmann M, Benítez-López A, Pacifici M, Schipper AM, Böhm M, Zizka A, Clausnitzer V, Meyer C, Jung M, Butchart SHM, Cardoso P, Mancini G, Akçakaya HR, Young BE, Patoine G, Di Marco M. Prioritizing the reassessment of data-deficient species on the IUCN Red List. Conserv Biol 2023; 37:e14139. [PMID: 37394972 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Revised: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
Despite being central to the implementation of conservation policies, the usefulness of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is hampered by the 14% of species classified as data-deficient (DD) because information to evaluate these species' extinction risk was lacking when they were last assessed or because assessors did not appropriately account for uncertainty. Robust methods are needed to identify which DD species are more likely to be reclassified in one of the data-sufficient IUCN Red List categories. We devised a reproducible method to help red-list assessors prioritize reassessment of DD species and tested it with 6887 DD species of mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fishes, and Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies). For each DD species in these groups, we calculated its probability of being classified in a data-sufficient category if reassessed today from covariates measuring available knowledge (e.g., number of occurrence records or published articles available), knowledge proxies (e.g., remoteness of the range), and species characteristics (e.g., nocturnality); calculated change in such probability since last assessment from the increase in available knowledge (e.g., new occurrence records); and determined whether the species might qualify as threatened based on recent rate of habitat loss determined from global land-cover maps. We identified 1907 species with a probability of being reassessed in a data-sufficient category of >0.5; 624 species for which this probability increased by >0.25 since last assessment; and 77 species that could be reassessed as near threatened or threatened based on habitat loss. Combining these 3 elements, our results provided a list of species likely to be data-sufficient such that the comprehensiveness and representativeness of the IUCN Red List can be improved.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Victor Cazalis
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Pablo M Lucas
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Manuela González-Suárez
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | | | - Ana Benítez-López
- Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Michela Pacifici
- Global Mammal Assessment Programme, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Aafke M Schipper
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences (RIBES), Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Monika Böhm
- Global Center for Species Survival, Indianapolis Zoological Society, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Alexander Zizka
- Department of Biology, Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | | | - Carsten Meyer
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Martin Jung
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Management Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Pedro Cardoso
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe), Finnish Museum of Natural History Luomus, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Giordano Mancini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - H Reşit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
| | | | - Guillaume Patoine
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Brown MJM, Bachman SP, Nic Lughadha E. Three in four undescribed plant species are threatened with extinction. New Phytol 2023; 240:1340-1344. [PMID: 37583098 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 07/13/2023] [Indexed: 08/17/2023]
Abstract
This article is part of the Special Collection ‘Global plant diversity and distribution’. See https://www.newphytologist.org/global-plant-diversity for more details.
Collapse
|
14
|
Creighton MJA, Nunn CL. Explaining the primate extinction crisis: predictors of extinction risk and active threats. Proc Biol Sci 2023; 290:20231441. [PMID: 37670584 PMCID: PMC10510445 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.1441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 09/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Explaining why some species are disproportionately impacted by the extinction crisis is of critical importance for conservation biology as a science and for proactively protecting species that are likely to become threatened in the future. Using the most current data on threat status, population trends, and threat types for 446 primate species, we advance previous research on the determinants of extinction risk by including a wider array of phenotypic traits as predictors, filling gaps in these trait data using multiple imputation, and investigating the mechanisms that connect organismal traits to extinction risk. Our Bayesian phylogenetically controlled analyses reveal that insular species exhibit higher threat status, while those that are more omnivorous and live in larger groups have lower threat status. The same traits are not linked to risk when repeating our analyses with older IUCN data, which may suggest that the traits influencing species risk are changing as anthropogenic effects continue to transform natural landscapes. We also show that non-insular, larger-bodied, and arboreal species are more susceptible to key threats responsible for primate population declines. Collectively, these results provide new insights to the determinants of primate extinction and identify the mechanisms (i.e. threats) that link traits to extinction risk.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Charles L. Nunn
- Department of Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
- Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Mundinger C, van Schaik J, Scheuerlein A, Kerth G. Heat over heritability: Increasing body size in response to global warming is not stabilized by genetic effects in Bechstein's bats. Glob Chang Biol 2023. [PMID: 37340689 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2022] [Accepted: 05/17/2023] [Indexed: 06/22/2023]
Abstract
How well populations can cope with global warming will often depend on the evolutionary potential and plasticity of their temperature-sensitive, fitness-relevant traits. In Bechstein's bats (Myotis bechsteinii), body size has increased over the last decades in response to warmer summers. If this trend continues it may threaten populations as larger females exhibit higher mortality. To assess the evolutionary potential of body size, we applied a Bayesian 'animal model' to estimate additive genetic variance, heritability and evolvability of body size, based on a 25-year pedigree of 332 wild females. Both heritability and additive genetic variance were reduced in hot summers compared to average and cold summers, while evolvability of body size was generally low. This suggests that the observed increase in body size was mostly driven by phenotypic plasticity. Thus, if warm summers continue to become more frequent, body size likely increases further and the resulting fitness loss could threaten populations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carolin Mundinger
- Applied Zoology and Nature Conservation, Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Jaap van Schaik
- Applied Zoology and Nature Conservation, Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Alexander Scheuerlein
- Applied Zoology and Nature Conservation, Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Gerald Kerth
- Applied Zoology and Nature Conservation, Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Lehtinen RM. Empirical Evidence for the Rescue Effect from a Natural Microcosm. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:1907. [PMID: 37370418 DOI: 10.3390/ani13121907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2023] [Revised: 05/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Ecological theory predicts that populations which receive immigrants are less vulnerable to extinction than those that do not receive immigrants (the "rescue effect"). A parallel but opposite process may also exist, where emigration increases the risk of local extinction (the "abandon-ship effect"). Using a natural microcosm of plant-specialist frogs from Madagascar, empirical evidence for both processes is provided. Populations receiving immigrants were less extinction-prone than those without immigration, and those populations losing individuals through emigration were more extinction-prone than those in which no emigration occurred. The number of immigrants and emigrants was also elevated and depressed (respectively) in patches that did not go extinct. These data provide some of the first definitive empirical evidence for the rescue effect and provide suggestive initial data on the abandon-ship effect. Both of these processes may be important to understanding the dynamics of populations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Richard M Lehtinen
- Division of Reptiles and Amphibians, University of Michigan Museum of Zoology, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Ament JM, Carbone C, Crees JJ, Freeman R, Turvey ST. Anthropogenic predictors of varying Holocene occurrence for Europe's large mammal fauna. Biol Lett 2023; 19:20220578. [PMID: 37073526 PMCID: PMC10114012 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2022.0578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2022] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 04/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding how species respond to different anthropogenic pressures is essential for conservation planning. The archaeological record has great potential to inform extinction risk assessment by providing evidence on past human-caused biodiversity loss, but identifying specific drivers of past declines from environmental archives has proved challenging. We used 17 684 Holocene zooarchaeological records for 15 European large mammal species together with data on past environmental conditions and anthropogenic activities across Europe, to assess the ability of environmental archives to determine the relative importance of different human pressures in shaping faunal distributions through time. Site occupancy probability showed differing significant relationships with environmental covariates for all species, and nine species also showed significant relationships with anthropogenic covariates (human population density, % cropland, % grazing land). Across-species differences in negative relationships with covariates provide ecological insights for understanding extinction dynamics: some mammals (red deer, aurochs, wolf, wildcat, lynx, pine marten and beech marten) were more vulnerable to past human-environmental interactions, and differing single and synergistic anthropogenic factors influenced likelihood of past occurrence across species. Our results provide new evidence for pre-industrial population fragmentation and depletion in European mammals, and demonstrate the usefulness of historical baselines for understanding species' varying long-term sensitivity to multiple threats.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Judith M. Ament
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Chris Carbone
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Jennifer J. Crees
- Department of Earth Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - Robin Freeman
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Samuel T. Turvey
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, UK
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Garcia-Costoya G, Williams CE, Faske TM, Moorman JD, Logan ML. Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:529-539. [PMID: 36756845 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2022] [Revised: 12/14/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/10/2023]
Abstract
Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change-increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Jacob D Moorman
- University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
19
|
Ohse B, Compagnoni A, Farrior CE, McMahon SM, Salguero-Gómez R, Rüger N, Knight TM. Demographic synthesis for global tree species conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 2023; 38:579-590. [PMID: 36822929 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.01.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023]
Abstract
Conserving the tree species of the world requires syntheses on which tree species are most vulnerable to pressing threats, such as climate change, invasive pests and pathogens, or selective logging. Here, we review the population and forest dynamics models that, when parameterized with data from population studies, forest inventories, or tree rings, have been used for identifying life-history strategies of species and threat-related changes in population demography and dynamics. The available evidence suggests that slow-growing and/or long-lived species are the most vulnerable. However, a lack of comparative, multi-species studies still challenges more precise predictions of the vulnerability of tree species to threats. Improving data coverage for mortality and recruitment, and accounting for interactions among threats, would greatly advance vulnerability assessments for conservation prioritizations of trees worldwide.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bettina Ohse
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Halle (Saale), Germany.
| | - Aldo Compagnoni
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Caroline E Farrior
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Sean M McMahon
- Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, USA
| | | | - Nadja Rüger
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; Department of Economics, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Ancón, Panama
| | - Tiffany M Knight
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Halle (Saale), Germany; Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Abstract
Genetic divergence among allopatric populations builds reproductive isolation over time. This process is accelerated when populations face a changing environment that allows large-effect mutational differences to accumulate, but abrupt change also places populations at risk of extinction. Here we use simulations of Fisher's geometric model with explicit population dynamics to explore the genetic changes that occur in the face of environmental changes. Because evolutionary rescue leads to the fixation of mutations whose phenotypic effects are larger on average compared with populations not at risk of extinction, these mutations are thus more likely to lead to reproductive isolation. We refer to the formation of new species from the ashes of populations in decline as the phoenix hypothesis of speciation. The phoenix hypothesis predicts more substantial hybrid fitness breakdown among populations surviving a higher extinction risk. The hypothesis was supported when many loci underlie adaptation. With only a small number of potential rescue mutations, however, mutations that fixed in different populations were more likely to be identical, with such parallel changes reducing isolation. Consequently, reproductive isolation builds fastest in populations subject to an intermediate extinction risk, given a limited number of mutations available for adaptation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ryo Yamaguchi
- Department of Advanced Transdisciplinary Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0808, Japan
- Department of Zoology & Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, V6T 1Z4
| | - Bryn Wiley
- Department of Zoology & Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, V6T 1Z4
| | - Sarah P. Otto
- Department of Zoology & Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, V6T 1Z4
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Chen C, Jefferson TA, Chen B, Wang Y. Geographic range size, water temperature, and extrinsic threats predict the extinction risk in global cetaceans. Glob Chang Biol 2022; 28:6541-6555. [PMID: 36008887 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16385] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2021] [Revised: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Despite the fact that cetaceans provide significant ecological contributions to the health and stability of aquatic ecosystems, many are highly endangered with nearly one-third of species assessed as threatened with extinction. Nevertheless, to date, few studies have explicitly examined the patterns and processes of extinction risk and threats for this taxon, and even less between the two subclades (Mysticeti and Odontoceti). To fill this gap, we compiled a dataset of six intrinsic traits (active region, geographic range size, body weight, diving depth, school size, and reproductive cycle), six environmental factors relating to sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration, and two human-related threat indices that are commonly recognized for cetaceans. We then employed phylogenetic generalized least squares models and model selection to identify the key predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans, as well as in the two subclades. We found that geographic range size, sea surface temperature, and human threat index were the most important predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans and in odontocetes. Interestingly, maximum body weight was positively associated with the extinction risk in mysticetes, but negatively related to that for odontocetes. By linking seven major threat types to extinction risk, we further revealed that fisheries bycatch was the most common threat, yet the impacts of certain threats could be overestimated when considering all species rather than just threatened ones. Overall, we suggest that conservation efforts should focus on small-ranged cetaceans and species living in warmer waters or under strong anthropogenic pressures. Moreover, further studies should consider the threatened status of species when superimposing risk maps and quantifying risk severity. Finally, we emphasize that mysticetes and odontocetes should be conserved with different strategies, because their extinction risk patterns and major threat types are considerably different. For instance, large-bodied mysticetes and small-ranged odontocetes require special conservation priority.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Chuanwu Chen
- Laboratory of Island Biogeography and Conservation Biology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
| | | | - Bingyao Chen
- Laboratory of Island Biogeography and Conservation Biology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yanping Wang
- Laboratory of Island Biogeography and Conservation Biology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
| |
Collapse
|
22
|
Lamperty T, Brosi BJ. Loss of endangered frugivores from seed dispersal networks generates severe mutualism disruption. Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20220887. [PMID: 36476005 PMCID: PMC9554716 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2022] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Many tropical seed-dispersing frugivores are facing extinction, but the consequences of the loss of endangered frugivores for seed dispersal is not well understood. We investigated the role of frugivore endangerment status via robustness-to-coextinction simulations (in this context, more accurately described as robustness-to-partner-loss simulations) using data from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. By simulating the extinction of endangered frugivores, we found a rapid and disproportionate loss of tree species with dispersal partners in the network, and this surprisingly surpassed any other frugivore extinction scenario, including the loss of the most generalist frugivores first. A key driver of this pattern is that many specialist plants rely on at-risk frugivores as seed-dispersal partners. Moreover, interaction compensation in the absence of endangered frugivores may be unlikely because frugivores with growing populations forage on fewer plant species than frugivores with declining populations. Therefore, protecting endangered frugivores could be critical for maintaining tropical forest seed dispersal, and their loss may have higher-than-expected functional consequences for tropical forests, their regeneration processes, and the maintenance of tropical plant diversity.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Therese Lamperty
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Life Sciences Building, 3747 W Stevens WayNE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Berry J. Brosi
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Life Sciences Building, 3747 W Stevens WayNE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Reddin CJ, Aberhan M, Raja NB, Kocsis ÁT. Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss. Glob Chang Biol 2022; 28:5793-5807. [PMID: 35851980 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carl J Reddin
- Museum für Naturkunde, Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany
- GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Martin Aberhan
- Museum für Naturkunde, Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nussaïbah B Raja
- GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Ádám T Kocsis
- GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
- MTA-MTM-ELTE Research Group for Paleontology, Budapest, Hungary
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
Mammola S, Meierhofer MB, Borges PA, Colado R, Culver DC, Deharveng L, Delić T, Di Lorenzo T, Dražina T, Ferreira RL, Fiasca B, Fišer C, Galassi DMP, Garzoli L, Gerovasileiou V, Griebler C, Halse S, Howarth FG, Isaia M, Johnson JS, Komerički A, Martínez A, Milano F, Moldovan OT, Nanni V, Nicolosi G, Niemiller ML, Pallarés S, Pavlek M, Piano E, Pipan T, Sanchez‐Fernandez D, Santangeli A, Schmidt SI, Wynne JJ, Zagmajster M, Zakšek V, Cardoso P. Towards evidence-based conservation of subterranean ecosystems. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2022; 97:1476-1510. [PMID: 35315207 PMCID: PMC9545027 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12851] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2021] [Revised: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 03/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
Subterranean ecosystems are among the most widespread environments on Earth, yet we still have poor knowledge of their biodiversity. To raise awareness of subterranean ecosystems, the essential services they provide, and their unique conservation challenges, 2021 and 2022 were designated International Years of Caves and Karst. As these ecosystems have traditionally been overlooked in global conservation agendas and multilateral agreements, a quantitative assessment of solution-based approaches to safeguard subterranean biota and associated habitats is timely. This assessment allows researchers and practitioners to understand the progress made and research needs in subterranean ecology and management. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature focused on subterranean ecosystems globally (terrestrial, freshwater, and saltwater systems), to quantify the available evidence-base for the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We selected 708 publications from the years 1964 to 2021 that discussed, recommended, or implemented 1,954 conservation interventions in subterranean ecosystems. We noted a steep increase in the number of studies from the 2000s while, surprisingly, the proportion of studies quantifying the impact of conservation interventions has steadily and significantly decreased in recent years. The effectiveness of 31% of conservation interventions has been tested statistically. We further highlight that 64% of the reported research occurred in the Palearctic and Nearctic biogeographic regions. Assessments of the effectiveness of conservation interventions were heavily biased towards indirect measures (monitoring and risk assessment), a limited sample of organisms (mostly arthropods and bats), and more accessible systems (terrestrial caves). Our results indicate that most conservation science in the field of subterranean biology does not apply a rigorous quantitative approach, resulting in sparse evidence for the effectiveness of interventions. This raises the important question of how to make conservation efforts more feasible to implement, cost-effective, and long-lasting. Although there is no single remedy, we propose a suite of potential solutions to focus our efforts better towards increasing statistical testing and stress the importance of standardising study reporting to facilitate meta-analytical exercises. We also provide a database summarising the available literature, which will help to build quantitative knowledge about interventions likely to yield the greatest impacts depending upon the subterranean species and habitats of interest. We view this as a starting point to shift away from the widespread tendency of recommending conservation interventions based on anecdotal and expert-based information rather than scientific evidence, without quantitatively testing their effectiveness.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Stefano Mammola
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe)Finnish Museum of Natural History (LUOMUS), University of HelsinkiPohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13Helsinki00100Finland
- Molecular Ecology Group (dark‐MEG)Water Research Institute (IRSA), National Research Council (CNR)Largo Tonolli, 50Verbania‐Pallanza28922Italy
| | - Melissa B. Meierhofer
- BatLab Finland, Finnish Museum of Natural History Luomus (LUOMUS)University of HelsinkiPohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13Helsinki00100Finland
| | - Paulo A.V. Borges
- cE3c—Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes / Azorean Biodiversity Group / CHANGE – Global Change and Sustainability InstituteUniversity of Azores, Faculty of Agrarian Sciences and Environment (FCAA), Rua Capitão João d'ÀvilaPico da Urze, 9700‐042 Angra do HeroísmoAzoresPortugal
| | - Raquel Colado
- Departament of Ecology and HidrologyUniversity of MurciaMurcia30100Spain
| | - David C. Culver
- Department of Environmental ScienceAmerican University4400 Massachusetts Avenue, N.WWashingtonDC20016U.S.A.
| | - Louis Deharveng
- Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), CNRS UMR 7205, MNHN, UPMC, EPHEMuseum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne UniversitéParisFrance
| | - Teo Delić
- SubBio Lab, Department of Biology, Biotechnical FacultyUniversity of LjubljanaJamnikarjeva 101Ljubljana1000Slovenia
| | - Tiziana Di Lorenzo
- Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems (IRET‐CNR), National Research CouncilVia Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Sesto FiorentinoFlorenceItaly
| | - Tvrtko Dražina
- Division of Zoology, Department of BiologyFaculty of Science, University of ZagrebRooseveltov Trg 6Zagreb10000Croatia
- Croatian Biospeleological SocietyRooseveltov Trg 6Zagreb10000Croatia
| | - Rodrigo L. Ferreira
- Center of Studies in Subterranean Biology, Biology Department, Federal University of LavrasCampus universitário s/n, Aquenta SolLavrasMG37200‐900Brazil
| | - Barbara Fiasca
- Department of Life, Health and Environmental SciencesUniversity of L'AquilaVia Vetoio 1, CoppitoL'Aquila67100Italy
| | - Cene Fišer
- SubBio Lab, Department of Biology, Biotechnical FacultyUniversity of LjubljanaJamnikarjeva 101Ljubljana1000Slovenia
| | - Diana M. P. Galassi
- Department of Life, Health and Environmental SciencesUniversity of L'AquilaVia Vetoio 1, CoppitoL'Aquila67100Italy
| | - Laura Garzoli
- Molecular Ecology Group (dark‐MEG)Water Research Institute (IRSA), National Research Council (CNR)Largo Tonolli, 50Verbania‐Pallanza28922Italy
| | - Vasilis Gerovasileiou
- Department of Environment, Faculty of EnvironmentIonian University, M. Minotou‐Giannopoulou strPanagoulaZakynthos29100Greece
- Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Institute of Marine BiologyBiotechnology and Aquaculture (IMBBC)Thalassocosmos, GournesCrete71500Greece
| | - Christian Griebler
- Department of Functional and Evolutionary Ecology, Division of LimnologyUniversity of ViennaDjerassiplatz 1Vienna1030Austria
| | - Stuart Halse
- Bennelongia Environmental Consultants5 Bishop StreetJolimontWA6014Australia
| | | | - Marco Isaia
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems BiologyUniversity of TurinVia Accademia Albertina, 13TorinoI‐10123Italy
| | - Joseph S. Johnson
- Department of Biological SciencesOhio University57 Oxbow TrailAthensOH45701U.S.A.
| | - Ana Komerički
- Croatian Biospeleological SocietyRooseveltov Trg 6Zagreb10000Croatia
| | - Alejandro Martínez
- Molecular Ecology Group (dark‐MEG)Water Research Institute (IRSA), National Research Council (CNR)Largo Tonolli, 50Verbania‐Pallanza28922Italy
| | - Filippo Milano
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems BiologyUniversity of TurinVia Accademia Albertina, 13TorinoI‐10123Italy
| | - Oana T. Moldovan
- Emil Racovita Institute of SpeleologyClinicilor 5Cluj‐Napoca400006Romania
- Romanian Institute of Science and TechnologySaturn 24‐26Cluj‐Napoca400504Romania
| | - Veronica Nanni
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems BiologyUniversity of TurinVia Accademia Albertina, 13TorinoI‐10123Italy
| | - Giuseppe Nicolosi
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems BiologyUniversity of TurinVia Accademia Albertina, 13TorinoI‐10123Italy
| | - Matthew L. Niemiller
- Department of Biological SciencesThe University of Alabama in Huntsville301 Sparkman Drive NWHuntsvilleAL35899U.S.A.
| | - Susana Pallarés
- Departamento de Biogeografía y Cambio GlobalMuseo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSICCalle de José Gutiérrez Abascal 2Madrid28006Spain
| | - Martina Pavlek
- Croatian Biospeleological SocietyRooseveltov Trg 6Zagreb10000Croatia
- Ruđer Bošković InstituteBijenička cesta 54Zagreb10000Croatia
| | - Elena Piano
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems BiologyUniversity of TurinVia Accademia Albertina, 13TorinoI‐10123Italy
| | - Tanja Pipan
- ZRC SAZUKarst Research InstituteNovi trg 2Ljubljana1000Slovenia
- UNESCO Chair on Karst EducationUniversity of Nova GoricaGlavni trg 8Vipava5271Slovenia
| | | | - Andrea Santangeli
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research ProgrammeUniversity of HelsinkiViikinkaari 1Helsinki00014Finland
| | - Susanne I. Schmidt
- Institute of Hydrobiology, Biology Centre CASNa Sádkách 702/7České Budějovice370 05Czech Republic
- Department of Lake ResearchHelmholtz Centre for Environmental ResearchBrückstraße 3aMagdeburg39114Germany
| | - J. Judson Wynne
- Department of Biological SciencesCenter for Adaptable Western Landscapes, Box 5640, Northern Arizona UniversityFlagstaffAZ86011U.S.A.
| | - Maja Zagmajster
- SubBio Lab, Department of Biology, Biotechnical FacultyUniversity of LjubljanaJamnikarjeva 101Ljubljana1000Slovenia
| | - Valerija Zakšek
- SubBio Lab, Department of Biology, Biotechnical FacultyUniversity of LjubljanaJamnikarjeva 101Ljubljana1000Slovenia
| | - Pedro Cardoso
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe)Finnish Museum of Natural History (LUOMUS), University of HelsinkiPohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13Helsinki00100Finland
- cE3c—Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes / Azorean Biodiversity Group / CHANGE – Global Change and Sustainability InstituteUniversity of Azores, Faculty of Agrarian Sciences and Environment (FCAA), Rua Capitão João d'ÀvilaPico da Urze, 9700‐042 Angra do HeroísmoAzoresPortugal
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Hughes EC, Edwards DP, Thomas GH. The homogenization of avian morphological and phylogenetic diversity under the global extinction crisis. Curr Biol 2022; 32:3830-3837.e3. [PMID: 35868322 PMCID: PMC9616725 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2022.06.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2022] [Revised: 05/11/2022] [Accepted: 06/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Biodiversity is facing a global extinction crisis that will reduce ecological trait diversity, evolutionary history, and ultimately ecosystem functioning and services.1, 2, 3, 4 A key challenge is understanding how species losses will impact morphological and phylogenetic diversity at global scales.5,6 Here, we test whether the loss of species threatened with extinction according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) leads to morphological and phylogenetic homogenization7,8 across both the whole avian class and within each biome and ecoregion globally. We use a comprehensive set of continuous morphological traits extracted from museum collections of 8,455 bird species, including geometric morphometric beak shape data,9 and sequentially remove species from those at most to least threat of extinction. We find evidence of morphological, but not phylogenetic, homogenization across the avian class, with species becoming more alike in terms of their morphology. We find that most biome and ecoregions are expected to lose morphological diversity at a greater rate than predicted by species loss alone, with the most imperiled regions found in East Asia and the Himalayan uplands and foothills. Only a small proportion of assemblages are threatened with phylogenetic homogenization, in particular parts of Indochina. Species extinctions will lead to a major loss of avian ecological strategies, but not a comparable loss of phylogenetic diversity. As the decline of species with unique traits and their replacement with more widespread generalist species continues, the protection of assemblages at most risk of morphological and phylogenetic homogenization should be a key conservation priority. Predicted loss of birds will drive exceptional declines in morphological diversity Species extinctions lead to a major loss of ecological strategies and functions Most biomes and ecoregions will experience morphological homogenization Phylogenetic diversity tends to decline as expected as species go extinct
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Emma C Hughes
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK; Bird Group, Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Akeman Street, Tring HP23 6AP, UK.
| | - David P Edwards
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
| | - Gavin H Thomas
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK; Bird Group, Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Akeman Street, Tring HP23 6AP, UK.
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Pande J, Tsubery Y, Shnerb NM. Quantifying invasibility. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1783-1794. [PMID: 35717561 PMCID: PMC9543749 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2022] [Revised: 04/25/2022] [Accepted: 05/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Invasibility, the chance of a population to grow from rarity and become established, plays a fundamental role in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology and evolution. For many decades, the mean growth rate of a species when it is rare has been employed as an invasion criterion. Recent studies show that the mean growth rate fails as a quantitative metric for invasibility, with its magnitude sometimes even increasing while the invasibility decreases. Here we provide two novel formulae, based on the diffusion approximation and a large‐deviations (Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin) approach, for the chance of invasion given the mean growth and its variance. The first formula has the virtue of simplicity, while the second one holds over a wider parameter range. The efficacy of the formulae, including their accompanying data analysis technique, is demonstrated using synthetic time series generated from canonical models and parameterised with empirical data.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jayant Pande
- Department of Physics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel
| | | | - Nadav M Shnerb
- Department of Physics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel
| |
Collapse
|
27
|
Williams DR, Rondinini C, Tilman D. Global protected areas seem insufficient to safeguard half of the world's mammals from human-induced extinction. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2200118119. [PMID: 35666869 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2200118119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Protected areas are vital for conserving global biodiversity, but we lack information on the extent to which the current global protected area network is able to prevent local extinctions. Here we investigate this by assessing the potential size of individual populations of nearly 4,000 terrestrial mammals within protected areas. We find that many existing protected areas are too small or too poorly connected to provide robust and resilient protection for almost all mammal species that are threatened with extinction and for over 1,000 species that are not currently threatened. These results highlight that global biodiversity targets must reflect ecological realities by incorporating spatial structure and estimates of population viability, rather than relying simply on the total area of land protected. Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global conservation and central to international plans to minimize global extinctions. During the coming century, global ecosystem destruction and fragmentation associated with increased human population and economic activity could make the long-term survival of most terrestrial vertebrates even more dependent on PAs. However, the capacity of the current global PA network to sustain species for the long term is unknown. Here, we explore this question for all nonvolant terrestrial mammals for which we found sufficient data, ∼4,000 species. We first estimate the potential population size of each such mammal species in each PA and then use three different criteria to estimate if solely the current global network of PAs might be sufficient for their long-term survival. Our analyses suggest that current PAs may fail to provide robust protection for about half the species analyzed, including most species currently listed as threatened with extinction and a third of species not currently listed as threatened. Hundreds of mammal species appear to have no viable protected populations. Underprotected species were found across all body sizes, taxonomic groups, and geographic regions. Large-bodied mammals, endemic species, and those in high-biodiversity tropical regions were particularly poorly protected by existing PAs. As new international biodiversity targets are formulated, our results suggest that the global network of PAs must be greatly expanded and most importantly that PAs must be located in diverse regions that encompass species not currently protected and must be large enough to ensure that protected species can persist for the long term.
Collapse
|
28
|
Silva SV, Andermann T, Zizka A, Kozlowski G, Silvestro D. Global Estimation and Mapping of the Conservation Status of Tree Species Using Artificial Intelligence. Front Plant Sci 2022; 13:839792. [PMID: 35574125 PMCID: PMC9100559 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2022.839792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2021] [Accepted: 03/07/2022] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Trees are fundamental for Earth's biodiversity as primary producers and ecosystem engineers and are responsible for many of nature's contributions to people. Yet, many tree species at present are threatened with extinction by human activities. Accurate identification of threatened tree species is necessary to quantify the current biodiversity crisis and to prioritize conservation efforts. However, the most comprehensive dataset of tree species extinction risk-the Red List of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN RL)-lacks assessments for a substantial number of known tree species. The RL is based on a time-consuming expert-based assessment process, which hampers the inclusion of less-known species and the continued updating of extinction risk assessments. In this study, we used a computational pipeline to approximate RL extinction risk assessments for more than 21,000 tree species (leading to an overall assessment of 89% of all known tree species) using a supervised learning approach trained based on available IUCN RL assessments. We harvested the occurrence data for tree species worldwide from online databases, which we used with other publicly available data to design features characterizing the species' geographic range, biome and climatic affinities, and exposure to human footprint. We trained deep neural network models to predict their conservation status, based on these features. We estimated 43% of the assessed tree species to be threatened with extinction and found taxonomic and geographic heterogeneities in the distribution of threatened species. The results are consistent with the recent estimates by the Global Tree Assessment initiative, indicating that our approach provides robust and time-efficient approximations of species' IUCN RL extinction risk assessments.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sandro Valerio Silva
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
- Interfaculty Bioinformatics Unit, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Tobias Andermann
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
- Global Gothenburg Biodiversity Centre, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Sweden, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Alexander Zizka
- Department of Biology, Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Gregor Kozlowski
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
| | - Daniele Silvestro
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
- Global Gothenburg Biodiversity Centre, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Sweden, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Fribourg, Switzerland
| |
Collapse
|
29
|
Harvey Sky N, Jackson J, Chege G, Gaymer J, Kimiti D, Mutisya S, Nakito S, Shultz S. Female reproductive skew exacerbates the extinction risk from poaching in the eastern black rhino. Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20220075. [PMID: 35414243 PMCID: PMC9006021 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Variation in individual demographic rates can have large consequences for populations. Female reproductive skew is an example of structured demographic heterogeneity where females have intrinsic qualities that make them more or less likely to breed. The consequences of reproductive skew for population dynamics are poorly understood in non-cooperatively breeding mammals, especially when coupled with other drivers such as poaching. We address this knowledge gap with population viability analyses using an age-specific, female-only, individual-based, stochastic population model built with long-term data for three Kenyan populations of the Critically Endangered eastern black rhino (Diceros bicornis michaeli). There was substantial reproductive skew, with a high proportion of females not breeding or doing so at very low rates. This had a large impact on the projected population growth rate for the smaller population on Ol Jogi. Moreover, including female reproductive skew exacerbates the effects of poaching, increasing the probability of extinction by approximately 70% under a simulated poaching pressure of 5% offtake per year. Tackling the effects of reproductive skew depends on whether it is mediated by habitat or social factors, with potential strategies including habitat and biological management respectively. Investigating and tackling reproductive skew in other species requires long-term, individual-level data collection.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nick Harvey Sky
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK.,North of England Zoological Society, Chester Zoo, Caughall Road, Chester CH2 1LH, UK
| | - John Jackson
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Geoffrey Chege
- Lewa Wildlife Conservancy, PO Box, Private Bag, Isiolo 60300, Kenya
| | | | - David Kimiti
- Grevy's Zebra Trust, PO Box 15351-00509, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Simon Nakito
- Ol Pejeta Conservancy, PO Box 167, Nanyuki, Kenya
| | - Susanne Shultz
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
| |
Collapse
|
30
|
Tims AR, Alroy J. Phylogeny-based conservation priorities for Australian freshwater fishes. Conserv Biol 2022; 36:e13811. [PMID: 34288119 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2020] [Revised: 06/02/2021] [Accepted: 07/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Conservation scientists are increasingly interested in the question of how extinction prunes the tree of life. This question is particularly important for Australian freshwater fishes because there is a broad mix of ∼300 old and young species, many of which are severely threatened. We used a complete species-level phylogeny of Australian freshwater fishes to examine phylogenetic nonrandomness of extinction risk. We computed the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity by simulating extinction across the tree under a pattern weighted based on International Union for Conservation of Nature extinction risk category and compared this loss to projected diversity loss under a random null model of extinction. Finally, we calculated EDGE (evolutionary distinctiveness, global endangerment) scores for 251 freshwater and 60 brackish species and compiled a list of high-priority species for conservation actions based on their extinction risk and evolutionary uniqueness. Extinction risk was not random and was clustered in both diversity cradles (recently diversifying, species-rich clades, such as Galaxiidae and Percichthyidae) and museums (older, species-poor groups, such as freshwater chondrichthyans). Clustered extinction made little difference to the average expected loss of phylogenetic diversity. However, the upper bound of loss was higher under a selective model of extinction, particularly when the counts of species lost were low. Thus, the loss of highly threatened species would diminish the tree of life more than a null model of randomly distributed extinction. High priority species included both widely recognized and charismatic ones, such as the Queensland lungfish (Neoceratodus forsteri), river sharks, and freshwater sawfishes, and lesser-known species that receive less public attention, including the salamanderfish (Lepidogalaxias salamandroides), cave gudgeons, and many galaxiids, rainbowfishes, and pygmy perches.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Amy R Tims
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - John Alroy
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
31
|
Yang Y, Lin AK, Garber PA, Huang Z, Tian Y, Behie A, Momberg F, Grueter CC, Li W, Lwin N, Xiao W. The 10th anniversary of the scientific description of the black snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus strykeri): It is time to initiate a set of new management strategies to save this critically endangered primate from extinction. Am J Primatol 2022; 84:e23372. [PMID: 35262940 DOI: 10.1002/ajp.23372] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2022] [Revised: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 02/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
Traditionally, the genus Rhinopithecus (Milne-Edwards, 1872, Primates, Colobinae) included four allopatric species, restricted in their distributions to China and Vietnam. In 2010, a fifth species, the black snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus strykeri) was discovered in the Gaoligong Mountains located on the border between China and Myanmar. Despite the remoteness, complex mountainous terrain, dense fog, and armed conflict that characterizes this region, over this past decade Chinese and Myanmar scientists have begun to collect quantitative data on the ecology, behavior and conservation requirements of R. strykeri. In this article, we review the existing data and present new information on the life history, ecology, and population size of R. strykeri. We discuss these data in the context of past and current conservation challenges faced by R. strykeri, and propose a series of both short-term and long-term management actions to ensure the survival of this Critically Endangered primate species. Specifically, we recommend that the governments and stakeholders in China and Myanmar formulate a transboundary conservation agreement that includes a consensus on bilateral exchange mechanisms, scientific research and monitoring goals, local community development, cooperation to prevent the hunting of endangered species and cross-border forest fires. These actions will contribute to the long-term conservation and survival of this Critically Endangered species.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yin Yang
- Institute of Eastern Himalaya Biodiversity Research, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China.,Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan, China.,School of Archaeology and Anthropology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.,International Center of Biodiversity and Primate Conservation, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China
| | - Aung Ko Lin
- Fauna & Flora International, Myanmar Programme, Sanchaung Township, Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Paul A Garber
- International Center of Biodiversity and Primate Conservation, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China.,Department of Anthropology, Program in Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA
| | - Zhipang Huang
- Institute of Eastern Himalaya Biodiversity Research, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China.,International Center of Biodiversity and Primate Conservation, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China
| | - Yinping Tian
- Lushui Bureau of Gaoligongshan National Nature Reserve, Liuku, Yunnan, China
| | - Alison Behie
- School of Archaeology and Anthropology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Frank Momberg
- Fauna & Flora International, Myanmar Programme, Sanchaung Township, Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Cyril C Grueter
- International Center of Biodiversity and Primate Conservation, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China.,School of Human Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | - Weibiao Li
- Lushui Bureau of Gaoligongshan National Nature Reserve, Liuku, Yunnan, China
| | - Ngwe Lwin
- Fauna & Flora International, Myanmar Programme, Sanchaung Township, Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Wen Xiao
- Institute of Eastern Himalaya Biodiversity Research, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China.,International Center of Biodiversity and Primate Conservation, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China
| |
Collapse
|
32
|
Weeks BC, Naeem S, Lasky JR, Tobias JA. Diversity and extinction risk are inversely related at a global scale. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:697-707. [PMID: 35199919 PMCID: PMC9303290 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13860] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2021] [Revised: 03/07/2021] [Accepted: 07/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Increases in biodiversity often lead to greater, and less variable, levels of ecosystem functioning. However, whether species are less likely to go extinct in more diverse ecosystems is unclear. We use comprehensive estimates of avian taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity to characterise the global relationship between multiple dimensions of diversity and extinction risk in birds, focusing on contemporary threat status and latent extinction risk. We find that more diverse assemblages have lower mean IUCN threat status despite being composed of species with attributes that make them more vulnerable to extinction, such as large body size or small range size. Indeed, the reduction in current threat status associated with greater diversity far outweighs the increased risk associated with the accumulation of extinction‐prone species in more diverse assemblages. Our results suggest that high diversity reduces extinction risk, and that species conservation targets may therefore best be achieved by maintaining high levels of overall biodiversity in natural ecosystems.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Brian C Weeks
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Shahid Naeem
- Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Jesse R Lasky
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Joseph A Tobias
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, UK
| |
Collapse
|
33
|
Tagliari MM, Danthu P, Leong Pock Tsy JM, Cornu C, Lenoir J, Carvalho-Rocha V, Vieilledent G. Not all species will migrate poleward as the climate warms: The case of the seven baobab species in Madagascar. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:6071-6085. [PMID: 34418236 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2021] [Revised: 06/25/2021] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
It is commonly accepted that species should move toward higher elevations and latitudes to track shifting isotherms as climate warms. However, temperature might not be the only limiting factor determining species distribution. Species might move to opposite directions to track changes in other climatic variables. Here, we used an extensive occurrence data set and an ensemble modelling approach to model the climatic niche and to predict the distribution of the seven baobab species (genus Adansonia) present in Madagascar. Using climatic projections from three global circulation models, we predicted species' future distribution and extinction risk for 2055 and 2085 under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two dispersal scenarios. We disentangled the role of each climatic variable in explaining species range shift looking at relative variable importance and future climatic anomalies. Four baobab species (Adansonia rubrostipa, Adansonia madagascariensis, Adansonia perrieri¸ and Adansonia suarezensis) could experience a severe range contraction in the future (>70% for year 2085 under RCP 8.5, assuming a zero-dispersal hypothesis). For three out of the four threatened species, range contraction was mainly explained by an increase in temperature seasonality, especially in the North of Madagascar, where they are currently distributed. In tropical regions, where species are commonly adapted to low seasonality, we found that temperature seasonality will generally increase. It is, thus, very likely that many species in the tropics will be forced to move equatorward to avoid an increase in temperature seasonality. Yet, several ecological (e.g., equatorial limit, or unsuitable deforested habitat) or geographical barriers (absence of lands) could prevent species to move equatorward, thus increasing the extinction risk of many tropical species, like endemic baobab species in Madagascar.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mario M Tagliari
- AMAP, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRA, IRD, Montpellier, France
- Human Ecology and Ethnobotany Lab, ECOHE, Ecology and Zoology Department, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil
| | - Pascal Danthu
- CIRAD, UPR HortSys, Montpellier, France
- HortSys, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
| | | | - Cyrille Cornu
- CIRAD, UMR TETIS, TETIS, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, IRSTEA, Montpellier, France
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- Unité de Recherche "Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés" (EDYSAN, UMR 7058 CNRS), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France
| | - Vítor Carvalho-Rocha
- Amphibians and Reptiles Ecology Lab, LEAR, Ecology and Zoology Department, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil
| | | |
Collapse
|
34
|
Gomides SC, Machado TM, Evangelista-Vale JC, Martins-Oliveira AT, Pires-Oliveira JC, Muller A, Barros da Rosa L, Lucas Santos-Silva D, Eisenlohr PV. Assessing species reintroduction sites based on future climate suitability for food resources. Conserv Biol 2021; 35:1821-1832. [PMID: 34166530 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13796] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2021] [Revised: 03/31/2021] [Accepted: 04/10/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The reintroduction of a species that is extinct in the wild demands caution because reintroduction locations may be associated with threats, such as hunting, poor-quality habitat, and climate change. This is the case for Cyanopsitta spixii (Spix's Macaw), which has been extinct in the wild since 2000. The few living individuals were created in captivity and will be used in a reintroduction project within the species' original distribution area, the Caatinga domain (Brazil). Because the occurrence records for this bird are old and inaccurate, we investigated the current and future environmental suitability of the 14 plant species used by C. spixii as resource. These plants are key elements for the long-term reestablishment of the species in the wild, so the use of models helps in the assessment of the effects of climate change on the availability of these resources for the species and informs selection of the best places for reintroduction. We based our models of environmental suitability on 19 bioclimatic variables and nine physical soil and topography variables. Climate projections were created for the present and for the year 2070 with an optimistic (SSP2-4.5) and a pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) climate scenario. Both future climate scenarios lead to a reduction in area of environmental suitability that overlapped for all the plant species: 33% reduction for SSP2-4.5 and 63% reduction for SSP5-8.5. If our projections materialize, climate change could thus affect the distribution of key resources, and the maintenance of C. spixii would depend on restoration of degraded areas, especially riparian forests, and the preservation of already existing natural areas. The Caatinga domain is very threatened by habitat loss and, for the success of this reintroduction project, the parties involved must act to protect the species and the resources it uses.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Samuel C Gomides
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Biodiversidade, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Oriximiná, Brazil
| | - Talita M Machado
- HSTM, Herbário da Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Santarém, Brazil
| | | | - Angele Tatiane Martins-Oliveira
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade do Estado do Mato Grosso (UNEMAT), Nova Xavantina, Brazil
- Instituto Ecótono, Sinop, Brazil
| | - João Carlos Pires-Oliveira
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade do Estado do Mato Grosso (UNEMAT), Nova Xavantina, Brazil
| | - Angélica Muller
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade do Estado do Mato Grosso (UNEMAT), Nova Xavantina, Brazil
| | - Lucas Barros da Rosa
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso (UFMT), Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação da Biodiversidade, Cuiabá, Brazil
| | - Domingos Lucas Santos-Silva
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade do Estado do Mato Grosso (UNEMAT), Nova Xavantina, Brazil
| | - Pedro V Eisenlohr
- Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT), Faculdade de Ciências Biológicas e Agrárias, Alta Floresta, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
35
|
Dorey JB, Rebola CM, Davies OK, Prendergast KS, Parslow BA, Hogendoorn K, Leijs R, Hearn LR, Leitch EJ, O'Reilly RL, Marsh J, Woinarski JCZ, Caddy-Retalic S. Continental risk assessment for understudied taxa post-catastrophic wildfire indicates severe impacts on the Australian bee fauna. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:6551-6567. [PMID: 34592040 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2021] [Accepted: 08/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The 2019-2020 Australian Black Summer wildfires demonstrated that single events can have widespread and catastrophic impacts on biodiversity, causing a sudden and marked reduction in population size for many species. In such circumstances, there is a need for conservation managers to respond rapidly to implement priority remedial management actions for the most-affected species to help prevent extinctions. To date, priority responses have been biased towards high-profile taxa with substantial information bases. Here, we demonstrate that sufficient data are available to model the extinction risk for many less well-known species, which could inform much broader and more effective ecological disaster responses. Using publicly available collection and GIS datasets, combined with life-history data, we modelled the extinction risk from the 2019-2020 catastrophic Australian wildfires for 553 Australian native bee species (33% of all described Australian bee taxa). We suggest that two species are now eligible for listing as Endangered and nine are eligible for listing as Vulnerable under IUCN criteria, on the basis of fire overlap, intensity, frequency, and life-history traits: this tally far exceeds the three Australian bee species listed as threatened prior to the wildfire. We demonstrate how to undertake a wide-scale assessment of wildfire impact on a poorly understood group to help to focus surveys and recovery efforts. We also provide the methods and the script required to make similar assessments for other taxa or in other regions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- James B Dorey
- College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
- Earth and Biological Sciences, South Australian Museum, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Celina M Rebola
- College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Olivia K Davies
- College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Kit S Prendergast
- School of Molecular and Life Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Ben A Parslow
- Earth and Biological Sciences, South Australian Museum, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Katja Hogendoorn
- School of Agriculture, Food and Wine, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Remko Leijs
- Earth and Biological Sciences, South Australian Museum, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Lucas R Hearn
- College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Emrys J Leitch
- School of Biological Sciences and Environment Institute, University of Adelaide, North Terrace, SA, Australia
| | - Robert L O'Reilly
- College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Jessica Marsh
- Earth and Biological Sciences, South Australian Museum, Adelaide, SA, Australia
- Harry Butler Research Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, Australia
| | - John C Z Woinarski
- National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recovery Hub, Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, NT, Australia
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia
| | - Stefan Caddy-Retalic
- School of Biological Sciences and Environment Institute, University of Adelaide, North Terrace, SA, Australia
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
36
|
Fitzgerald DB, Smith DR, Culver DC, Feller D, Fong DW, Hajenga J, Niemiller ML, Nolfi DC, Orndorff WD, Douglas B, Maloney KO, Young JA. Using expert knowledge to support Endangered Species Act decision-making for data-deficient species. Conserv Biol 2021; 35:1627-1638. [PMID: 33471375 PMCID: PMC8518685 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13694] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Revised: 01/11/2021] [Accepted: 01/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Many questions relevant to conservation decision-making are characterized by extreme uncertainty due to lack of empirical data and complexity of the underlying ecologic processes, leading to a rapid increase in the use of structured protocols to elicit expert knowledge. Published ecologic applications often employ a modified Delphi method, where experts provide judgments anonymously and mathematical aggregation techniques are used to combine judgments. The Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) differs in its behavioral approach to synthesizing individual judgments into a fully specified probability distribution for an unknown quantity. We used the SHELF protocol remotely to assess extinction risk of three subterranean aquatic species that are being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We provided experts an empirical threat assessment for each known locality over a video conference and recorded judgments on the probability of population persistence over four generations with online submission forms and R-shiny apps available through the SHELF package. Despite large uncertainty for all populations, there were key differences between species' risk of extirpation based on spatial variation in dominant threats, local land use and management practices, and species' microhabitat. The resulting probability distributions provided decision makers with a full picture of uncertainty that was consistent with the probabilistic nature of risk assessments. Discussion among experts during SHELF's behavioral aggregation stage clearly documented dominant threats (e.g., development, timber harvest, animal agriculture, and cave visitation) and their interactions with local cave geology and species' habitat. Our virtual implementation of the SHELF protocol demonstrated the flexibility of the approach for conservation applications operating on budgets and time lines that can limit in-person meetings of geographically dispersed experts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel B. Fitzgerald
- U.S. Geological SurveyLeetown Science Center11649 Leetown RoadKearneysvilleWV25430U.S.A.
| | - David R. Smith
- U.S. Geological SurveyLeetown Science Center11649 Leetown RoadKearneysvilleWV25430U.S.A.
| | - David C. Culver
- Department of Environmental ScienceAmerican University4400 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashingtonDC20016USA
| | - Daniel Feller
- Maryland Department of Natural ResourcesAppalachian Laboratory301 Braddock RdFrostburgMD21532USA
| | - Daniel W. Fong
- Department of BiologyAmerican University4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NWWashingtonDC20016USA
| | - Jeff Hajenga
- West Virginia Division of Natural ResourcesPO Box 67, Ward RdElkinsWV26241USA
| | - Matthew L. Niemiller
- Department of BiologyUniversity of Alabama HuntsvilleSST 369, 301 Sparkman DriveHuntsvilleAL35899USA
| | - Daniel C. Nolfi
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service4425 Burley Dr # AChubbuckID83202USA
| | - Wil D. Orndorff
- Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation600 E. Main St., 24th FloorRichmondVA23219USA
| | - Barbara Douglas
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service90 Vance DriveElkinsWV26241USA
| | - Kelly O. Maloney
- U.S. Geological SurveyLeetown Science Center11649 Leetown RoadKearneysvilleWV25430U.S.A.
| | - John A. Young
- U.S. Geological SurveyLeetown Science Center11649 Leetown RoadKearneysvilleWV25430U.S.A.
| |
Collapse
|
37
|
Bellard C, Bernery C, Leclerc C. Looming extinctions due to invasive species: Irreversible loss of ecological strategy and evolutionary history. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:4967-4979. [PMID: 34337834 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15771] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2021] [Accepted: 06/10/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Biological invasions are one of the main drivers of biodiversity decline worldwide. However, many associated extinctions are yet to occur, meaning that the ecological debt caused by invasive species could be considerable for biodiversity. We explore extinction scenarios due to invasive species and investigate whether paying off the current extinction debt will shift the global composition of mammals and birds in terms of ecological strategy and evolutionary history. Current studies mostly focus on the number of species potentially at risk due to invasions without taking into account species characteristics in terms of ecological or phylogenetic properties. We found that 11% of phylogenetic diversity worldwide is represented by invasive-threatened species. Furthermore, 14% of worldwide trait diversity is hosted by invasive-threatened mammals and 40% by invasive-threatened birds, with Neotropical and Oceanian realms being primary risk hotspots. Projected extinctions of invasive-threatened species result in a smaller reduction in ecological strategy space and evolutionary history than expected under randomized extinction scenarios. This can be explained by the strong pattern in the clustering of ecological profiles and families impacted by invasive alien species (IAS). However, our results confirm that IAS are likely to cause the selective loss of species with unique evolutionary and ecological profiles. Our results also suggest a global shift in species composition away from those with large body mass, which mostly feed in the lower foraging strata and have an herbivorous diet (mammals). Our findings demonstrate the potential impact of biological invasions on phylogenetic and trait dimensions of diversity, especially in the Oceanian realm. We therefore call for a more systematic integration of all facets of diversity when investigating the consequences of biological invasions in future studies. This would help to establish spatial prioritizations regarding IAS threats worldwide and anticipate the consequences of losing specific ecological profiles in the invaded community.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Céline Bellard
- Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Orsay, France
| | - Camille Bernery
- Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Orsay, France
| | - Camille Leclerc
- INRAE, University of Aix Marseille, UMR RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence, France
| |
Collapse
|
38
|
Greenberg DA, Pyron RA, Johnson LGW, Upham NS, Jetz W, Mooers AØ. Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:2464-2476. [PMID: 34510687 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2021] [Revised: 07/12/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Dan A Greenberg
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - R Alexander Pyron
- Department of Biological Sciences, George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Liam G W Johnson
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Nathan S Upham
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.,Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.,School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.,Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Arne Ø Mooers
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
39
|
Lévêque L, Buettel JC, Carver S, Brook BW. Characterizing the spatio-temporal threats, conservation hotspots and conservation gaps for the most extinction-prone bird family (Aves: Rallidae). R Soc Open Sci 2021; 8:210262. [PMID: 34527269 PMCID: PMC8424349 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210262] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
With thousands of vertebrate species now threatened with extinction, there is an urgent need to understand and mitigate the causes of wildlife collapse. Rails (Aves: Rallidae), being the most extinction-prone bird family globally, and with one-third of extant rail species now threatened or near threatened, are an emphatic case in point. Here, we undertook a global synthesis of the temporal and spatial threat patterns for Rallidae and determined conservation priorities and gaps. We found two key pathways in the threat pattern for rails. One follows the same trajectory as extinct rails, where island endemic and flightless rails are most threatened, mainly due to invasive predators. The second, created by the diversification of anthropogenic activities, involves continental rails, threatened mainly by agriculture, natural system modifications, and residential and commercial development. Indonesia, the USA, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Cuba were the priority countries identified by our framework incorporating species' uniqueness and the level of endangerment, but also among the countries that lack conservation actions the most. Future efforts should predominantly target improvements in ecosystem protection and management, as well as ongoing research and monitoring. Forecasting the impacts of climate change on island endemic rails will be particularly valuable to protect rails.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lucile Lévêque
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia
| | - Scott Carver
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia
| |
Collapse
|
40
|
Clusella-Trullas S, Garcia RA, Terblanche JS, Hoffmann AA. How useful are thermal vulnerability indices? Trends Ecol Evol 2021; 36:1000-1010. [PMID: 34384645 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2021.07.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2021] [Revised: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 07/06/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
To forecast climate change impacts across habitats or taxa, thermal vulnerability indices (e.g., safety margins and warming tolerances) are growing in popularity. Here, we present their history, context, formulation, and current applications. We highlight discrepancies in terminology and usage, and we draw attention to key assumptions underpinning the main indices and to their ecological and evolutionary relevance. In the process, we flag biases influencing these indices that are not always evaluated. These biases affect both components of index formulations, namely: (i) the characterisation of the thermal environment; and (ii) an organism's physiological and behavioural responses to more frequent and severe warming. Presently, many outstanding questions weaken a thermal vulnerability index approach. We describe ways to validate vulnerability index applications and outline issues to be considered in further developing these indices.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Raquel A Garcia
- Department of Botany & Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - John S Terblanche
- Department of Conservation Ecology & Entomology, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Ary A Hoffmann
- School of BioSciences, Bio21 Institute, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
41
|
James TD, Salguero-Gómez R, Jones OR, Childs DZ, Beckerman AP. Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation. Conserv Biol 2021; 35:1210-1221. [PMID: 33068013 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2019] [Revised: 09/10/2020] [Accepted: 10/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tamora D James
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, U.K
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Zoology Research and Administration Building, 11a Mansfield Rd, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, U.K
| | - Owen R Jones
- Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), Department of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Odense, Denmark
| | - Dylan Z Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, U.K
| | - Andrew P Beckerman
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, U.K
| |
Collapse
|
42
|
Wilfahrt PA, Asmus AL, Seabloom EW, Henning JA, Adler P, Arnillas CA, Bakker JD, Biederman L, Brudvig LA, Cadotte M, Daleo P, Eskelinen A, Firn J, Harpole WS, Hautier Y, Kirkman KP, Komatsu KJ, Laungani R, MacDougall A, McCulley RL, Moore JL, Morgan JW, Mortensen B, Ochoa Hueso R, Ohlert T, Power SA, Price J, Risch AC, Schuetz M, Shoemaker L, Stevens C, Strauss AT, Tognetti PM, Virtanen R, Borer ET. Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity. Ecology 2021; 102:e03504. [PMID: 34319599 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2021] [Revised: 05/04/2021] [Accepted: 06/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5-12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk following experimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the long-term stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Peter A Wilfahrt
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55108, USA
| | - Ashley L Asmus
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55108, USA
| | - Eric W Seabloom
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55108, USA
| | - Jeremiah A Henning
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55108, USA.,Department of Biology, University of South Alabama, Mobile, Alabama, 36688, USA
| | - Peter Adler
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322, USA
| | - Carlos A Arnillas
- Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario, M1C 1A4, Canada
| | - Jonathan D Bakker
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, 98195, USA
| | - Lori Biederman
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, 50011, USA
| | - Lars A Brudvig
- Department of Plant Biology and Program in Ecology, Evolutionary Biology and Behavior, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 48824, USA
| | - Marc Cadotte
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario, M1C 1A4, Canada
| | - Pedro Daleo
- Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), CONICET - UNMDP, Mar del Plata, Argentina
| | - Anu Eskelinen
- Department of Biology, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Leipzig, 04103, Germany
| | - Jennifer Firn
- School of Biology & Environmental Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4000, Australia
| | - W Stanley Harpole
- Department of Biology, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Leipzig, 04103, Germany.,Department of Physiological Diversity, Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, Leipzig, 04318, Germany.,Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, am Kirchtor 1, Halle (Saale), 06108, Germany
| | - Yann Hautier
- Ecology and Biodiversity Group, Department of Biology, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584, The Netherlands
| | - Kevin P Kirkman
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Scottsville, 3209, South Africa
| | - Kimberly J Komatsu
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, Maryland, 21037, USA
| | - Ramesh Laungani
- Department of Biology, Doane University, Crete, Nebraska, 68333, USA
| | - Andrew MacDougall
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Rebecca L McCulley
- Department of Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky, 40546, USA
| | - Joslin L Moore
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, 3800, Australia
| | - John W Morgan
- Department of Ecology, Environment & Evolution, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, 3086, Australia
| | - Brent Mortensen
- Department of Biology, Benedictine College, Atchison, Kansas, 66002, USA
| | | | - Timothy Ohlert
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, 87131, USA
| | - Sally A Power
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, University of Western Sydney, Penrith, New South Wales, 2751, Australia
| | - Jodi Price
- Institute of Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, 2678, Australia
| | - Anita C Risch
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland
| | - Martin Schuetz
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland
| | - Lauren Shoemaker
- Botany Department, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA
| | - Carly Stevens
- Lancaster Environment Center, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK
| | - Alexander T Strauss
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55108, USA.,Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, 30602, USA
| | - Pedro M Tognetti
- IFEVA, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Risto Virtanen
- Department of Biology, University of Oulu, Oulu, 90570, Finland
| | - Elizabeth T Borer
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55108, USA
| |
Collapse
|
43
|
Chowdhury S, Zalucki MP, Amano T, Woodworth BK, Venegas-Li R, Fuller RA. Seasonal spatial dynamics of butterfly migration. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:1814-1823. [PMID: 34145940 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2020] [Revised: 04/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/02/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Understanding the seasonal movements of migratory species underpins ecological studies. Several hundred butterfly species show migratory behaviour, yet the spatial pattern of these migrations is poorly understood. We developed climatic niche models for 405 migratory butterfly species globally to estimate patterns of seasonal movement and the distribution of seasonal habitat suitability. We found strong seasonal variation in habitat suitability for most migratory butterflies with >75% of pixels within their distributions showing seasonal switching in predicted occupancy for 85% of species. The greatest rate of seasonal switching occurred in the tropics. Several species showed extreme range fluctuations between seasons, exceeding 10-fold for 53 species (13%) and more than 100-fold for nine species (2%), suggesting that such species may be at elevated extinction risk. Our results can be used to search for the ecological processes that underpin migration in insects, as well as to design conservation interventions for declining migratory insects.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Shawan Chowdhury
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Saint Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - Myron P Zalucki
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Saint Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - Tatsuya Amano
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Saint Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - Bradley K Woodworth
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Saint Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - Ruben Venegas-Li
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Saint Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - Richard A Fuller
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Saint Lucia, Qld, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
44
|
Mundinger C, Scheuerlein A, Kerth G. Long-term study shows that increasing body size in response to warmer summers is associated with a higher mortality risk in a long-lived bat species. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20210508. [PMID: 34074120 PMCID: PMC8170209 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.0508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2021] [Accepted: 05/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Change in body size is one of the universal responses to global warming, with most species becoming smaller. While small size in most species corresponds to low individual fitness, small species typically show high population growth rates in cross-species comparisons. It is unclear, therefore, how climate-induced changes in body size ultimately affect population persistence. Unravelling the relationship between body size, ambient temperature and individual survival is especially important for the conservation of endangered long-lived mammals such as bats. Using an individual-based 24-year dataset from four free-ranging Bechstein's bat colonies (Myotis bechsteinii), we show for the first time a link between warmer summer temperatures, larger body sizes and increased mortality risk. Our data reveal a crucial time window in June-July, when juveniles grow to larger body sizes in warmer conditions. Body size is also affected by colony size, with larger colonies raising larger offspring. At the same time, larger bats have higher mortality risks throughout their lives. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the link between warmer weather and body size as a fitness-relevant trait for predicting species-specific extinction risks as consequences of global warming.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carolin Mundinger
- Applied Zoology and Nature Conservation, Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Alexander Scheuerlein
- Applied Zoology and Nature Conservation, Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Gerald Kerth
- Applied Zoology and Nature Conservation, Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
45
|
Hagge J, Müller J, Birkemoe T, Buse J, Christensen RHB, Gossner MM, Gruppe A, Heibl C, Jarzabek-Müller A, Seibold S, Siitonen J, Soutinho JG, Sverdrup-Thygeson A, Thorn S, Drag L. What does a threatened saproxylic beetle look like? Modelling extinction risk using a new morphological trait database. J Anim Ecol 2021; 90:1934-1947. [PMID: 33942309 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2021] [Accepted: 04/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The extinction of species is a non-random process, and understanding why some species are more likely to go extinct than others is critical for conservation efforts. Functional trait-based approaches offer a promising tool to achieve this goal. In forests, deadwood-dependent (saproxylic) beetles comprise a major part of threatened species, but analyses of their extinction risk have been hindered by the availability of suitable morphological traits. To better understand the mechanisms underlying extinction in insects, we investigated the relationships between morphological features and the extinction risk of saproxylic beetles. Specifically, we hypothesised that species darker in colour, with a larger and rounder body, a lower mobility, lower sensory perception and more robust mandibles are at higher risk. We first developed a protocol for morphological trait measurements and present a database of 37 traits for 1,157 European saproxylic beetle species. Based on 13 selected, independent traits characterising aspects of colour, body shape, locomotion, sensory perception and foraging, we used a proportional-odds multiple linear mixed-effects model to model the German Red List categories of 744 species as an ordinal index of extinction risk. Six out of 13 traits correlated significantly with extinction risk. Larger species as well as species with a broad and round body had a higher extinction risk than small, slim and flattened species. Species with short wings had a higher extinction risk than those with long wings. On the contrary, extinction risk increased with decreasing wing load and with higher mandibular aspect ratio (shorter and more robust mandibles). Our study provides new insights into how morphological traits, beyond the widely used body size, determine the extinction risk of saproxylic beetles. Moreover, our approach shows that the morphological characteristics of beetles can be comprehensively represented by a selection of 13 traits. We recommend them as a starting point for functional analyses in the rapidly growing field of ecological and conservation studies of deadwood.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jonas Hagge
- Forest Nature Conservation, Georg-August-University Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.,Forest Nature Conservation, Northwest German Forest Research Institute, Münden, Germany
| | - Jörg Müller
- Bavarian Forest National Park, Grafenau, Germany.,Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Rauhenebrach, Germany
| | - Tone Birkemoe
- The Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas, Norway
| | - Jörn Buse
- Black Forest National Park, Freudenstadt, Germany
| | | | - Martin M Gossner
- Forest Entomology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.,ETH Zurich, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Axel Gruppe
- Chair of Zoology, Entomology Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | | | | | - Sebastian Seibold
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Department of Ecology and Ecosystem Management, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany.,Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany
| | - Juha Siitonen
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Anne Sverdrup-Thygeson
- The Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas, Norway
| | - Simon Thorn
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Rauhenebrach, Germany
| | - Lukas Drag
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Rauhenebrach, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
46
|
Song H, Ordonez A, Svenning JC, Qian H, Yin X, Mao L, Deng T, Zhang J. Regional disparity in extinction risk: Comparison of disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia and eastern North America. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:1904-1914. [PMID: 33474767 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2020] [Revised: 11/13/2020] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentially varying biotic sensitivity is a major source of uncertainty for translating environmental changes to extinction risks. To reduce this uncertainty, we assessed how extinction risks will be affected by future human-driven environmental changes, focusing on 554 species from 52 disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia (EAS) and eastern North America (ENA) to control for differences in environmental sensitivity at the genus level. Species distribution models were used to estimate and compare the vulnerability of species in disjunct genera between the two regions under two climate and land cover change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 2070s, allowing to assess the effects of differences in climate and land cover pressures. Compared with ENA, stronger pressures from climate and land cover changes along with smaller range sizes in EAS translate into a larger number and proportion of species in disjunct genera becoming threatened by the 2070s. These regional differences are more pronounced under a best-case climate scenario (RCP2.6), illustrating that strong climate change (RCP8.5) may override any regional buffer capacities. The main variables determining extinction risks differed between the two continental regions, with annual temperature range and cropland expansion being important in EAS, and annual precipitation being important in ENA. These results suggest that disparities in regional exposure to anthropogenic environmental changes may cause congeneric species with relatively similar sensitivity to have different future risks of extinction. Moreover, the findings highlight the context-specific nature of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity and the importance of making region-specific policies for conservation and restoration in response to the intensifying global changes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Houjuan Song
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Research Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
- Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Alejandro Ordonez
- Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Hong Qian
- Research and Collections Center, Illinois State Museum, Springfield, IL, USA
| | - Xue Yin
- State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol and School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lingfeng Mao
- Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Tao Deng
- CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China
| | - Jian Zhang
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Research Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark
| |
Collapse
|
47
|
Nomoto HA, Alexander JM. Drivers of local extinction risk in alpine plants under warming climate. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:1157-1166. [PMID: 33780124 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2020] [Revised: 09/27/2020] [Accepted: 02/10/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
The scarcity of local plant extinctions following recent climate change has been explained by demographic inertia and lags in the displacement of resident species by novel species, generating an 'extinction debt'. We established a transplant experiment to disentangle the contribution of these processes to the local extinction risk of four alpine plants in the Swiss Alps. Projected population growth (λ) derived from integral projection models was reduced by 0.07/°C of warming on average, whereas novel species additionally decreased λ by 0.15 across warming levels. Effects of novel species on predicted extinction time were greatest at warming < 2 °C for two species. Projected population declines under both warming and with novel species were primarily driven by increased mortality. Our results suggest that extinction debt can be explained by a combination of demographic inertia and lags in novel species establishment, with the latter being particularly important for some species under low levels of warming.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hanna A Nomoto
- Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland
| | - Jake M Alexander
- Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland
| |
Collapse
|
48
|
Dallas T, Melbourne BA, Legault G, Hastings A. Initial abundance and stochasticity influence competitive outcome in communities. J Anim Ecol 2021; 90:1691-1700. [PMID: 33759453 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2020] [Accepted: 03/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Predicting competitive outcomes in communities frequently involves inferences based on deterministic population models since these provide clear criteria for exclusion (e.g. R* rule) or long-term coexistence (e.g. mutual invasibility). However, incorporating stochasticity into population- or community-level processes into models is necessary if the goal is to explain variation in natural systems, which are inherently stochastic. Similarly, in systems with demographic or environmental stochasticity, weaker competitors have the potential to exclude superior competitors, contributing to what is known as 'competitive indeterminacy'. The importance of such effects for natural communities is unknown, in part because it is difficult to demonstrate that multiple forms of stochasticity are present in these communities. Moreover, the effects of multiple forms of stochasticity on competitive outcomes are largely untested, even in theory. Here, we address these issues by examining the role of stochasticity in replicated communities of flour beetles (Tribolium sp.). To do so, we developed a set of two-species stochastic Ricker models incorporating four distinct forms of stochasticity: environmental stochasticity, demographic stochasticity, demographic heterogeneity and stochastic sex determination. By fitting models to experimental data, and simulating fit models to examine long- term behaviour, we found that both the duration of transient coexistence and the degree of competitive indeterminacy were sensitive to the forms of stochasticity included in our models. These findings suggest the current estimates of extinction risk, coexistence and time until competitive exclusion in communities may not be accurate when based on models that exclude relevant forms of stochasticity.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tad Dallas
- Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
| | - Brett A Melbourne
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Geoffrey Legault
- Department of Forest and Conservation Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Alan Hastings
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
49
|
Turvey ST, Duncan C, Upham NS, Harrison X, Dávalos LM. Where the wild things were: intrinsic and extrinsic extinction predictors in the world's most depleted mammal fauna. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20202905. [PMID: 33715429 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2905] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Preventing extinctions requires understanding macroecological patterns of vulnerability or persistence. However, correlates of risk can be nonlinear, within-species risk varies geographically, and current-day threats cannot reveal drivers of past losses. We investigated factors that regulated survival or extinction in Caribbean mammals, which have experienced the globally highest level of human-caused postglacial mammalian extinctions, and included all extinct and extant Holocene island populations of non-volant species (219 survivals or extinctions across 118 islands). Extinction selectivity shows a statistically detectable and complex body mass effect, with survival probability decreasing for both mass extremes, indicating that intermediate-sized species have been more resilient. A strong interaction between mass and age of first human arrival provides quantitative evidence of larger mammals going extinct on the earliest islands colonized, revealing an extinction filter caused by past human activities. Survival probability increases on islands with lower mean elevation (mostly small cays acting as offshore refugia) and decreases with more frequent hurricanes, highlighting the risk of extreme weather events and rising sea levels to surviving species on low-lying cays. These findings demonstrate the interplay between intrinsic biology, regional ecology and specific local threats, providing insights for understanding drivers of biodiversity loss across island systems and fragmented habitats worldwide.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Samuel T Turvey
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Clare Duncan
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.,Centre for Ecology and Conservation, Biosciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Nathan S Upham
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.,Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.,School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA
| | - Xavier Harrison
- Biosciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Streatham Campus, Exeter EX4 4QD, UK
| | - Liliana M Dávalos
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, New York 11794, USA.,Consortium for Inter-Disciplinary Environmental Research, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA
| |
Collapse
|
50
|
Gaitán-Espitia JD, Hobday AJ. Evolutionary principles and genetic considerations for guiding conservation interventions under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:475-488. [PMID: 32979891 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Accepted: 08/26/2020] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Impacts of climate change are apparent in natural systems around the world. Many species are and will continue to struggle to persist in their current location as their preferred environment changes. Traditional conservation efforts aiming to prevent local extinctions have focused on two aspects that theoretically enhance genetic diversity-population connectivity and population size-through 'passive interventions' (such as protected areas and connectivity corridors). However, the exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity that we are experiencing as result of anthropogenic climate change has shifted conservation approaches to more 'active interventions' (such as rewilding, assisted gene flow, assisted evolution, artificial selection, genetic engineering). We integrate genetic/genomic approaches into an evolutionary biology framework in order to discuss with scientists, conservation managers and decision makers about the opportunities and risks of interventions that need careful consideration in order to avoid unwanted evolutionary outcomes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Juan D Gaitán-Espitia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas., Australia
- The Swire Institute of Marine Science and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | | |
Collapse
|