Using expert knowledge to support Endangered Species Act decision-making for data-deficient species

Many questions relevant to conservation decision-making are characterized by extreme uncertainty due to lack of empirical data and complexity of the underlying ecologic processes, leading to a rapid increase in the use of structured protocols to elicit expert knowledge. Published ecologic applications often employ a modified Delphi method, where experts provide judgments anonymously and mathematical aggregation techniques are used to combine judgments. The Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) differs in its behavioral approach to synthesizing individual judgments into a fully specified probability distribution for an unknown quantity. We used the SHELF protocol remotely to assess extinction risk of three subterranean aquatic species that are being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We provided experts an empirical threat assessment for each known locality over a video conference and recorded judgments on the probability of population persistence over four generations with online submission forms and R-shiny apps available through the SHELF package. Despite large uncertainty for all populations, there were key differences between species' risk of extirpation based on spatial variation in dominant threats, local land use and management practices, and species' microhabitat. The resulting probability distributions provided decision makers with a full picture of uncertainty that was consistent with the probabilistic nature of risk assessments. Discussion among experts during SHELF's behavioral aggregation stage clearly documented dominant threats (e.g., development, timber harvest, animal agriculture, and cave visitation) and their interactions with local cave geology and species' habitat. Our virtual implementation of the SHELF protocol demonstrated the flexibility of the approach for conservation applications operating on budgets and time lines that can limit in-person meetings of geographically dispersed experts.

Radar quantifies migrant concentration and Dawn reorientation at a Great Lakes shoreline

BACKGROUND

Millions of flying migrants encounter the Great Lakes and other large water bodies on long-distance flights each spring and fall, but quantitative data regarding how they traverse these obstacles are limited. Shorelines are known areas of migrant concentration due to the ecological barrier effect, but details on the magnitude of this concentration and the flight behaviors causing it are largely unknown and difficult to quantify. Mobile avian radar can provide a unique view of how birds and bats move across landscapes by tracking thousands of individual migrants moving through a sample volume that extends multiple kilometers in radius.

RESULTS

During the spring of 2014 we used two avian radar units to compare migration patterns at shoreline (1.5 km from the shore) and inland (20 km from the shore) sites along the eastern shoreline of Lake Michigan in the north-central US. We found shoreline activity to be 27% greater than inland activity over all time periods, and 132% greater during the hour surrounding dawn. An analysis of flight directions found that migrants flew to the north and northwest during dusk and night, with many heading out over the lake, but shifted direction towards the east at dawn, as those flying over water reoriented towards land. This shift in direction, which was most intense at the shoreline, may contribute to the higher concentrations of migrants observed at shorelines in this study and others.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings help confirm and quantify the phenomenon of nocturnal migrant reorientation at dawn, and also stress the functional importance of coastal regions for aerial migrants. The high use of coasts by migrants highlights the importance of conserving shoreline stopover habitat, which often competes with anthropogenic uses. We suggest using a high degree of caution when assessing potential impacts from development in these sensitive environments, and encourage protection of these high-use areas.