Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment

Unravelling the functional and phylogenetic dimensions of novel ecosystem assemblages

Human activities are causing taxonomic rearrangements across ecosystems that often result in the emergence of novel communities (assemblies with no historical representative). It is commonly assumed that these changes in the taxonomic makeup of ecosystems also inevitably lead to changes in other aspects of biodiversity, namely functional and phylogenetic diversity. However, this assumption is not always valid, as the changes in functional and phylogenetic composition resulting from taxonomic shifts depend on the level of redundancy in the evaluated community. Therefore, we need improved theoretical frameworks to predict when we can expect coordinated or decoupled responses among these three facets of biodiversity. To advance this understanding, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues that complicate establishing a link between taxonomic rearrangements driven by human activities and the associated functional and phylogenetic changes. Here, we show that is crucial to consider the expected changes in functional and phylogenetic composition as communities are reshaped owing to human drivers of biodiversity loss to forecast the impacts of novel assemblages on ecosystem functions and the services they provide to humanity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

The water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus in the Danube River Basin: Exploring scenarios and implications of maize irrigation

The Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus concept postulates that water, energy production, agriculture and ecosystems are closely interlinked. In transboundary river basins, different sectors and countries compete for shared water resources. In the Danube River Basin (DRB), possible expansion of agricultural irrigation is expected to intensify water competition in the WEFE nexus, however, trade-offs have not yet been quantified. Here, we quantified trade-offs between agriculture, hydropower and (aquatic) ecosystems in the DRB resulting from maize irrigation when irrigation water was withdrawn from rivers. Using the process-based hydro-agroecological model PROMET, we simulated three maize scenarios for the period 2011-2020: (i) rainfed; (ii) irrigated near rivers without considering environmental flow requirements (EFRs); (iii) irrigated near rivers with water abstractions complying with EFRs. Maize yield and water use efficiency (WUE) increased by 101-125 % and 29-34 % under irrigation compared to rainfed cultivation. Irrigation water withdrawals from rivers resulted in moderate to severe discharge reductions and, without consideration of EFRs, to substantial EFR infringements. Annual hydropower production decreased by 1.0-1.9 % due to discharge reductions. However, the financial turnover increase in agriculture (5.8-7.2 billion €/a) was two orders of magnitude larger than the financial turnover decrease in hydropower (23.9-47.8 million €/a), making water more profitable in agriculture. Irrigation WUE was highest for EFR-compliant irrigation, indicating that maintaining EFRs is economically beneficial and that improving WUE is key to attenuating nexus water competition. Current maize production could be met on the most productive 35-41 % of current maize cropland under irrigation, allowing 59-65 % to be returned to nature without loss of production. Maize priority areas were on fertile lowlands near major rivers, while biodiversity priority areas were on marginal cropland of highest biodiversity intactness. Our quantitative trade-off analysis can help identifying science-based pathways for sustainable WEFE nexus management in the DRB, also in light of climate change.

Ecology, ethology, and evolution in the Anthropocene

The 53rd Ontario Ecology, Ethology, and Evolution Colloquium (OE3C 2023) took place at Western University (London, Canada) on 25-27 May 2023, attracting 160 participants. This Meeting Review aims not only to recapitulate what was discussed during the event, but also to provide a brief synthesis of how biologists can move forward. The event was organised and run by graduate students and postdoctoral researchers from the Department of Biology at Western University. With three international keynote speakers, seventy talks, and fifty poster presentations, the OE3C 2023 spanned a wide range of contemporary research in Ecology, Ethology, and Evolution ("the 3 E's"). The colloquium theme was "Surviving the Anthropocene: future steps for the 3 E's under pressing planetary issues", which was complemented by illustrations depicting the fauna and flora of the "Canadian Anthropocene". Participants discussed what biologists and researchers can do regarding future climate and environmental catastrophes. The meeting culminated in a panel discussion comprising three climate change specialists who examined topics such as the Anthropocene and the Great acceleration, the living planet index, and carbon bombs. Although not exhaustive, these topics served as a starting point for the necessary discussions about how biologists can contribute to the fight for the survival of life on Earth.

Human disturbance in riparian areas disrupts predator-prey interactions between grizzly bears and salmon

Wildlife must increasingly balance trade-offs between the need to access important foods and the mortality risks associated with human-dominated landscapes. Human disturbance can profoundly influence wildlife behavior, but managers know little about the relationship between disturbance-behavior dynamics and associated consequences for foraging. We address this gap by empirically investigating the consequences of human activity on a keystone predator-prey interaction in a region with limited but varied industrial disturbance. Using stable isotope data from 226 hair samples of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) collected from 1995 to 2014 across 22 salmon-bearing watersheds (88,000 km2) in British Columbia, Canada, we examined how human activity influenced their consumption of spawning salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), a fitness-related food. Accounting for the abundance of salmon and other foods, salmon consumption strongly decreased (up to 59% for females) with increasing human disturbance (as measured by the human footprint index) in riparian zones of salmon-bearing rivers. Declines in salmon consumption occurred with disturbance even in watersheds with low footprints. In a region currently among the least influenced by industrial activity, intensification of disturbance in river valleys is predicted to increasingly decouple bears from salmon, possibly driving associated reductions in population productivity and provisioning of salmon nutrients to terrestrial ecosystems. Accordingly, we draw on our results to make landscape-scale and access-related management recommendations beyond current streamside protection buffers. This work illustrates the interaction between habitat modification and food security for wildlife, highlighting the potential for unacknowledged interactions and cumulative effects in increasingly modified landscapes.

Underlying and proximate drivers of biodiversity changes in Mesoamerican biosphere reserves

Protected areas are of paramount relevance to conserving wildlife and ecosystem contributions to people. Yet, their conservation success is increasingly threatened by human activities including habitat loss, climate change, pollution, and species overexploitation. Thus, understanding the underlying and proximate drivers of anthropogenic threats is urgently needed to improve protected areas' effectiveness, especially in the biodiversity-rich tropics. We addressed this issue by analyzing expert-provided data on long-term biodiversity change (last three decades) over 14 biosphere reserves from the Mesoamerican Biodiversity Hotspot. Using multivariate analyses and structural equation modeling, we tested the influence of major socioeconomic drivers (demographic, economic, and political factors), spatial indicators of human activities (agriculture expansion and road extension), and forest landscape modifications (forest loss and isolation) as drivers of biodiversity change. We uncovered a significant proliferation of disturbance-tolerant guilds and the loss or decline of disturbance-sensitive guilds within reserves causing a "winner and loser" species replacement over time. Guild change was directly related to forest spatial changes promoted by the expansion of agriculture and roads within reserves. High human population density and low nonfarming occupation were identified as the main underlying drivers of biodiversity change. Our findings suggest that to mitigate anthropogenic threats to biodiversity within biosphere reserves, fostering human population well-being via sustainable, nonfarming livelihood opportunities around reserves is imperative.

Comparative Study of Potential Habitats for Simulium qinghaiense (Diptera: Simuliidae) in the Huangshui River Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An Analysis Using Four Ecological Niche Models and Optimized Approaches

The Huangshui River, a vital tributary in the upper reaches of the Yellow River within the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, is home to the endemic black fly species S. qinghaiense. In this study, we conducted a systematic survey of the distribution of the species in the Huangshui River basin, revealing its predominant presence along the river's main stem. Based on four ecological niche models-MaxEnt with parameter optimization; GARP; BIOCLIM; and DOMAIN-we conduct a comparative analysis; evaluating the accuracy of AUC and Kappa values. Our findings indicate that optimizing parameters significantly improves the MaxEnt model's predictive accuracy by reducing complexity and overfitting. Furthermore, all four models exhibit higher accuracy compared to a random model, with MaxEnt demonstrating the highest AUC and Kappa values (0.9756 and 0.8118, respectively), showcasing significant superiority over the other models (p < 0.05). Evaluation of predictions from the four models elucidates that potential areas of S. qinghaiense in the Huangshui River basin are primarily concentrated in the central and southern areas, with precipitation exerting a predominant influence. Building upon these results, we utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast changes in suitable areas and distribution centers during the Last Interglacial (LIG), Mid-Holocene (MH), and future periods under three climate scenarios. The results indicate significantly smaller suitable areas during LIG and MH compared to the present, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward from the Qilian Mountains to the central part of the basin. In the future, suitable areas under different climate scenarios are expected to contract, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward. These findings provide important theoretical references for monitoring, early warning, and control measures for S. qinghaiense in the region, contributing to ecological health assessment.

Biodiversity loss through cropland displacement for urban expansion in China

As a result of rapid economic development, urban expansion reduced the cropland in China. To secure the food supply, cropland displacement to maintain the quantity and quality of cropland has been implemented. Here, we quantified the biodiversity losses due to cropland displacement resulting from urban expansion from a telecoupling perspective in China from 1980 to 2020. A comprehensive multimodel assessment demonstrated that the indirect biodiversity losses due to cropland displacement resulting from urban expansion were approximately 2 to 3 times higher than its direct biodiversity losses, at a total loss of approximately 0.6 % to 1.0 %, as indicated by three biodiversity indicators. Displaced cropland with a higher biodiversity cost but lower cropland productivity is the main reason for the excessive indirect losses and suggests that socioecological processes may be detrimental to the synergistic benefits of the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for food security and terrestrial biodiversity. This study also identified source-sink hotspots for indirect biodiversity losses, which can contribute to improving biodiversity conservation, optimizing the spatial distribution of cropland and thus enhancing socioecological system sustainability.

Breaking the ESG rating divergence: An open geospatial framework for environmental scores

Information about a company's environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance has become increasingly important in the decision-making process of financial institutions. The financial implications of environmental challenges (e.g. water stress), negative social impacts (e.g. health impacts in local communities) or poor corporate governance (e.g. breaching legislation) all continue to increase. Accordingly, there is a need for financial institutions to incorporate information on ESG risks, opportunities and impacts in decisions that relate to risk management, investments, credit, strategy, and reporting. ESG information is typically disseminated through ESG ratings, which combine the three constituents into a single rating, or ascribe them separate scores. The compilation of ESG ratings and the identification of appropriate data sources is an inherently complex process; as such, there is no single standard for data collection or reporting. This has led to a divergence in the underlying data sources used by different rating providers, as well as in the determination of factors that are deemed worthy of measurement in the first place. For example, when assessing a company's environmental impact, one rating provider may rely on company-provided data, while another may incorporate independent third-party assessments. Unfortunately, there is currently no clear mechanism for effectively resolving such disagreements to establish a standardised approach to ESG rating assessments. However, geospatial data and analyses offer several key advantages for ESG assessments, including consistency, the potential for enhanced accuracy, and the ability to identify and assess environmental impacts at a detailed physical asset level, in addition to evaluating the broader spatial context. By incorporating geospatial information (obtained through manually processing remotely sensed data, or by using existing products) rating methodologies can be improved, and disparities can be addressed more effectively. This would enable a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental considerations of ESG assessments, promoting a more informed and precise decision-making process. Within this context, a few institutions (e.g. the University of Oxford, the WWF, and a few others) are pioneering thought leadership around spatial finance, including the assessment of ESG issues utilising geospatial intelligence, but there are no consistent frameworks for incorporating geospatial data into ESG ratings and analysis. This paper explores the opportunity for such a geospatial environmental scoring framework, defining a variety of methods in which open data with broad geographic coverage could be incorporated into ESG analysis, generalisable to a range of assets and sectors. The proposed framework is organised into two categories: localised effects, which directly impact the immediate vicinity of an asset, and delocalised effects, which contribute to global climate change and atmospheric pollution. Sub-scores are defined within these categories, which capture both the localised effects on land use, biodiversity, soils, and hydrology, and the global impacts resulting from atmospheric emissions. The approaches for handling geospatial data to generate both these sub-scores and the final E-score are presented, including a test case, and the complete methodology is made available in open repositories.

Global meta-analysis of urbanization stressors on insect abundance, richness, and traits

Anthropic stressors are among the greatest concerns in nature conservation. Among these, deforestation and urban expansion are major drivers of habitat loss, which is a major threat to biodiversity. Insects, the largest and most abundant group of animals, are declining at alarming rates. However, global estimates of the impact of anthropic stressors on insect abundance, richness, and traits are still lacking. Here, we performed a meta-analysis to estimate the impact of urbanization stressors on insect abundance, diversity, and traits. Our design focused on the effects of urbanization on moderators such as insects' activity periods, climatic zones, development stages, ecosystem, functional roles, mobility, orders, and life history. We found that insects are negatively affected by urban stressors across most moderators evaluated. Our research estimated that in insects, urbanization resulted in a mean decrease of 42 % in abundance, 40 % in richness, and 24 % in trait effects, compared to a conserved area. Even though in general there was greater loss in abundance than in richness, each moderator was affected by different means and to varying degrees, which results from artificial lighting at night as well as land use. Our study highlights the importance of promoting better protection of insect biodiversity in the future from the enormous loss in biodiversity reported in >500 papers assessed.

Food Security and Land Use under Sustainable Development Goals: Insights from Food Supply to Demand Side and Limited Arable Land in China

The conflict between economic growth and the arable land demand poses a significant challenge to maintaining food security and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Meanwhile, substantial regional disparities in food consumption contribute to variations in land demand, further exacerbating constraints on food security. However, few studies have delved into regional differences in land demand related to food consumption. To bridge these gaps, this study estimated the arable land demand and associated pressures, considering food consumption patterns and the land footprint across 31 provincial districts in China. The findings reveal that grains remain the primary crop consumed by Chinese residents. Notably, the food consumption pattern exhibits substantial disparities among provincial districts, particularly concerning livestock products. Given China's vast population and escalating consumption of livestock, the country demonstrates heightened land demands. While China does not face a national-level food security threat, regional disparities are evident, with eight provincial districts facing potential food security risks. This study explored the challenges and pathways in maintaining food security and the visions to achieve it, emphasizing the importance of sustaining a balanced food consumption pattern, reducing food waste, improving environmentally friendly agriculture practices, formulating effective and continuous laws and regulations, and exploring potential land resource development to alleviate the pressure on arable land and ensure food security.

Variation in a Darwin Wasp (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) Community along an Elevation Gradient in a Tropical Biodiversity Hotspot: Implications for Ecology and Conservation

Understanding how biodiversity varies from place to place is a fundamental goal of ecology and an important tool for halting biodiversity loss. Parasitic wasps (Hymenoptera) are a diverse and functionally important animal group, but spatial variation in their diversity is poorly understood. We survey a community of parasitic wasps (Ichneumonidae: Pimplinae) using Malaise traps up a mountain in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest, and relate the catch to biotic and abiotic habitat characteristics. We find high species richness compared with previous similar studies, with abundance, richness, and diversity peaking at low to intermediate elevation. There is a marked change in community composition with elevation. Habitat factors strongly correlated with elevation also strongly predict changes in the pimpline community, including temperature as well as the density of bamboo, lianas, epiphytes, small trees, and herbs. These results identify several possible surrogates of pimpline communities in tropical forests, which could be used as a tool in conservation. They also contribute to the growing evidence for a typical latitudinal gradient in ichneumonid species richness, and suggest that low to medium elevations in tropical regions will sometimes conserve the greatest number of species locally, but to conserve maximal biodiversity, a wider range of elevations should also be targeted.

A global assessment of the Raunkiaeran shortfall in plants: geographic biases in our knowledge of plant traits

This article is part of the Special Collection ‘Global plant diversity and distribution’. See https://www.newphytologist.org/global-plant-diversity for more details.

Aligning Environmental Sustainability, Health Outcomes, and Affordability in Diet Quality: A Systematic Review

Improving diet quality while simultaneously maintaining planetary health is of critical interest globally. Despite the shared motivation, advancement remains slow, and the research community continues to operate in silos, focusing on certain pairings (diet-climate), or with a discipline-specific lens of a sustainable diet, rather than examining their totality. This review aimed to summarize the literature on adherence to a priori defined dietary patterns in consideration of diet quality, metabolic risk factors for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), environmental impacts, and affordability. A methodology using PRISMA guidelines was followed, and searches were performed in 7 databases as of October 2022. The Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) quality assessment tool for observational cohort studies were employed for quality appraisal. The evidence was narratively synthesized according to the characteristics of the diet quality metrics. The review includes 24 studies published between 2017-2023. Thirteen distinct diet quality scores were identified, with those measuring adherence to national dietary guidelines the most reported. Thirteen distinct environmental impact indicators were identified, with greenhouse gas emissions (n=23) reported most. All studies reported on body mass index, and 7 studies assessed the cost of adherence. Our results are consistent with previous findings that healthier diets can reduce environmental impacts; however, incongruities between population and planetary health can occur. Hence, the "sustainability" of dietary patterns is dependent on the choice of indicators selected. Further, healthy, lower impact diets can increase financial cost, but may also provide a protective role against the risk of obesity. Given the Global Syndemic, strategies to reduce obesity prevalence should emphasize the win-win opportunities for population and planetary health through dietary change. Research should identify diets that address multiple environmental concerns to curtail burdens potentially transferring, and harmonize this with sociocultural and equity dimensions. This review was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42021238055.

Land use diversification may mitigate on-site land use impacts on mammal populations and assemblages

Land use is a major cause of biodiversity decline worldwide. Agricultural and forestry diversification measures, such as the inclusion of natural elements or diversified crop types, may reduce impacts on biodiversity. However, the extent to which such measures may compensate for the negative impacts of land use remains unknown. To fill that gap, we synthesised data from 99 studies that recorded mammal populations or assemblages in natural reference sites and in cropland and forest plantations, with or without diversification measures. We quantified the responses to diversification measures based on individual species abundance, species richness and assemblage intactness as quantified by the mean species abundance indicator. In cropland with natural elements, mammal species abundance and richness were, on average, similar to natural conditions, while in cropland without natural elements they were reduced by 28% and 34%, respectively. We found that mammal species richness was comparable between diversified forest plantations and natural reference sites, and 32% lower in plantations without natural elements. In both cropland and plantations, assemblage intactness was reduced compared with natural reference conditions, but the reduction was smaller if diversification measures were in place. In addition, we found that responses to land use were modified by species traits and environmental context. While habitat specialist populations were reduced in cropland without diversification and in forest plantations, habitat generalists benefited. Furthermore, assemblages were impacted more by land use in tropical regions and landscapes containing a larger share of (semi)natural habitat compared with temperate regions and more converted landscapes. Given that mammal assemblage intactness is reduced also when diversification measures are in place, special attention should be directed to species that suffer from land use impacts. That said, our results suggest potential for reconciling land use and mammal conservation, provided that the diversification measures do not compromise yield.

Linking climate warming and land conversion to species' range changes across Great Britain

Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.

Modelling elephant corridors over two decades reveals opportunities for conserving connectivity across a large protected area network

Protected area (PA) connectivity is pivotal for the persistence of wide-ranging wildlife species, but is challenged by habitat loss and fragmentation. We analyzed habitat suitability and connectivity for the African elephant (Loxodonta africana) across PAs in south-western Tanzania in 2000, 2010, and 2019. We quantified land-use changes through remote sensing data; estimated habitat suitability through aerial survey data, remotely sensed variables and ensemble species distribution models; modelled least-cost corridors; identified the relative importance of each corridor for the connectivity of the PA network and potential bottlenecks over time through circuit theory; and validated corridors through local ecological knowledge and ground wildlife surveys. From 2000 to 2019, cropland increased from 7% to 13% in the region, with an average expansion of 634 km2 per year. Distance from cropland influenced elephant distribution models the most. Despite cropland expansion, the locations of the modelled elephant corridors (n = 10) remained similar throughout the survey period. Based on local ecological knowledge, nine of the modelled corridors were active, whereas one modelled corridor had been inactive since the 1970s. Based on circuit theory, we prioritize three corridors for PA connectivity. Key indicators of corridor quality varied over time, whereas elephant movement through some corridors appears to have become costlier over time. Our results suggest that, over the past two decades, functional connectivity across the surveyed landscape has largely persisted. Beyond providing crucial information for spatial prioritization of conservation actions, our approach highlights the importance of modeling functional connectivity over time and verifying corridor models with ground-truthed data.

Low-opportunity-cost feed can reduce land-use-related environmental impacts by about one-third in China

Feeding animals more low-opportunity-cost feed products (LCFs), such as food waste and by-products, may decrease food-feed competition for cropland. Using a feed allocation optimization model that considers the availability of feed sources and animal requirements for protein and energy, we explored the perspectives of feeding more LCFs to animals in China. We found that about one-third of the animal feed consisted of human-edible products, while only 23% of the available LCFs were used as feed during 2009-2013. An increased utilization of LCFs (45-90 Mt) could potentially save 25-32% of feed-producing cropland area without impairing livestock productivity. Parallelly, about one-third of feed-related irrigation water, synthetic fertilizer and greenhouse gas emissions would be saved. Re-allocating the saved cropland could sustain the food energy demand of 30-185 million people. Achieving the potentials of increased LCF use requires improved technology and coordination among stakeholders.

Organic farming of maize crop enhances species evenness and diversity of hexapod predators

Arthropod species diversity enhances ecosystem productivity and sustainability by increasing pollination and biological control services. Although, it is declining rapidly due to conventional agricultural intensification, organic agriculture with reduced reliance on agronomic inputs can regenerate ecosystems' resilience and restore them. Here, we report whether hexapod communities differ on both types of farming systems in small-scale field plot experiments, wherein Maize variety AG-589 was grown organically and conventionally in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Livestock manure was applied in organic fields, whereas nitrogen and phosphorous were used as synthetic fertilizers in conventional fields. Hexapods were sampled three weeks after sowing once a week from the middle rows of subplots from both organically and conventionally grown maize. Twelve species of herbivores and four species of predators were recorded. Hexapod abundance overall and that of herbivores only was higher in conventionally cultivated maize, while predator abundance was higher in organic maize. Herbivores species diversity and evenness were significantly higher in conventional maize. Predator species diversity and evenness were significantly higher in organic maize fields. We noted predator abundance, diversity, and evenness as strong predictors to lower herbivore populations. These findings suggest that organic farming conserves natural enemies' biodiversity and regulates herbivores with increased provision of suitable habitats and prey resources for natural enemies, leading to enhanced relative abundance in their specialized niches. Thus, organic agriculture can potentially mediate better ecosystem services.

Operationalizing One Health: Environmental Solutions for Pandemic Prevention

Human pressure on the environment is increasing the frequency, diversity, and spatial extent of disease outbreaks. Despite international recognition, the interconnection between the health of the environment, animals, and humans has been historically overlooked. Past and current initiatives have often neglected prevention under the One Health preparedness cycle, largely focusing on post-spillover stages. We argue that pandemic prevention initiatives have yet to produce actionable targets and indicators, connected to overarching goals, like it has been done for biodiversity loss and climate change. We show how the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework, already employed by the Convention on Biological Diversity, can be repurposed to operationalize pandemic prevention. Global responses for pandemic prevention should strive for complementarity and synergies among initiatives, better articulating prevention under One Health. Without agreed-upon goals underpinning specific targets and interventions, current global efforts are unlikely to function at the speed and scale necessary to decrease the risk of disease outbreaks that might lead to pandemics. Threats to the environment are not always abatable, but decreasing the likelihood that environmental pressure leads to pandemics, and developing strategies to mitigate these impacts, are both attainable goals.

A Method of Evaluating Safe Operating Space: Focus on Geographic Regions, Income Levels and Developing Pathway

Safe and Just Space (SJS) is a framework for determining the range where the use of natural resources within the Earth's carrying capacity can maintain human well-being. However, there has been no systematic monitoring and evaluation of their sustainability across time and space. Here we developed and applied a model and a sustainable development human safe operation space (SDHSOS) index to assess the sustainability capacity and development path of 149 countries from 2000 to 2018. The results demonstrate that (1) The overall sustainable development capacity of all countries is at the middle or lower level and that it has increased over time. (2) The sustainability of natural and socio-economic dimensions and their degree of change show obvious geographic differences and income differences. (3) The national development path divided by income is characterized by a decline in natural environment dimensions and an increase in socio-economic dimensions, which mainly reflects a traditional development path model that promotes social welfare at the expense of the natural environment. This study suggests that nations can accurately identify development characteristics, expand their comparative advantages is the key to improving sustainable development capabilities.

Will biomimetic robots be able to change a hivemind to guide honeybees' ecosystem services?

We study whether or not a group of biomimetic waggle dancing robots is able to significantly influence the swarm-intelligent decision making of a honeybee colony, e.g. to avoid foraging at dangerous food patches using a mathematical model. Our model was successfully validated against data from two empirical experiments: one examined the selection of foraging targets and the other cross inhibition between foraging targets. We found that such biomimetic robots have a significant effect on a honeybee colony's foraging decision. This effect correlates with the number of applied robots up to several dozens of robots and then saturates quickly with higher robot numbers. These robots can reallocate the bees' pollination service in a directed way towards desired locations or boost it at specific locations, without having a significant negative effect on the colony's nectar economy. Additionally, we found that such robots may be able to lower the influx of toxic substances from potentially harmful foraging sites by guiding the bees to alternative places. These effects also depend on the saturation level of the colony's nectar stores. The more nectar is already stored in the colony, the easier the bees are guided by the robots to alternative foraging targets. Our study shows that biomimetic and socially immersive biomimetic robots are a relevant future research target in order to support (a) the bees by guiding them to safe (pesticide free) places, (b) the ecosystem via boosted and directed pollination services and (c) human society by supporting agricultural crop pollination, thus increasing our food security this way.

Impact of small farmers' access to improved seeds and deforestation in DR Congo

Since the 1960s, the increased availability of modern seed varieties in developing countries has had large positive effects on households' well-being. However, the effect of related land use changes on deforestation and biodiversity is ambiguous. This study examines this question through a randomized control trial in a remote area in the Congo Basin rainforest with weak input and output markets. Using plot-level data on land conversion combined with remote sensing data, we find that promotion of modern seed varieties did not lead to an increase in overall deforestation by small farmers. However, farmers cleared more primary forest and less secondary forest. We attribute this to the increased demand for nitrogen required by the use of some modern seed varieties, and to the lack of alternative sources of soil nutrients, which induced farmers to shift towards cultivation of land cleared in primary forest. Unless combined with interventions to maintain soil fertility, policies to promote modern seed varieties may come at the cost of important losses in biodiversity.

Relative effects of urbanisation, deforestation, and agricultural development on mosquito communities

Context

Despite numerous studies that showed negative effects of landscape anthropisation on species abundance and diversity, the relative effects of urbanisation, deforestation, and agricultural development as well as the spatial extent at which they act are much less studied. This is particularly the case for mosquitoes, which are the most important arthropods affecting human health.

Objectives

We determined the scale of effect of these three landscape anthropisation components on mosquito abundance and diversity. We then assessed which landscape variables had the most effect as well as their independent positive or negative effects.

Methods

We used mosquito data collected by Schaffner and Mathis (2013) in 16 sampling sites in Switzerland. We measured forest, urban and agricultural amounts in 485 concentric landscapes (from 150 to 5000 m radius) around each sampling site. We then identified the spatial extent at which each landscape metric best predicted abundance and diversity of mosquito species and compared the effect size of each landscape component on each response variable.

Results

In Switzerland, urbanisation and deforestation have a greater influence on mosquito diversity than agricultural development, and do not act at the same scale. Conversely, the scale of effect on mosquito abundance is relatively similar across the different landscape anthropisation components or across mosquito species, except for Culex pipiens. However, the effect size of each landscape component varies according to mosquito species.

Conclusion

The scale of management must be selected according to the conservation concern. In addition, a multi-scale approach is recommended for effective mosquito community management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-023-01634-w.

Land-use diversity predicts regional bird taxonomic and functional richness worldwide

Unveiling the processes that shape biodiversity patterns is a cornerstone of ecology. Land-use diversity (i.e., the variety of land-use categories within an area) is often considered an important environmental factor that promotes species richness at landscape and regional scales by increasing beta-diversity. Still, the role of land-use diversity in structuring global taxonomic and functional richness is unknown. Here, we examine the hypothesis that regional species taxonomic and functional richness is explained by global patterns of land-use diversity by analyzing distribution and trait data for all extant birds. We found strong support for our hypothesis. Land-use diversity predicted bird taxonomic and functional richness in almost all biogeographic realms, even after accounting for the effect of net primary productivity (i.e., a proxy of resource availability and habitat heterogeneity). This link was particularly consistent with functional richness compared to taxonomic richness. In the Palearctic and Afrotropic realms, a saturation effect was evident, suggesting a non-linear relationship between land-use diversity and biodiversity. Our results reveal that land-use diversity is a key environmental factor associated with several facets of bird regional diversity, widening our understanding of key large-scale predictors of biodiversity patterns. These results can contribute to policies aimed at minimizing regional biodiversity loss.

Land cover change in global drylands: A review

As a sensitive region, identifying land cover change in drylands is critical to understanding global environmental change. However, the current findings related to land cover change in drylands are not uniform due to differences in data and methods among studies. We compared and judged the spatial and temporal characteristics, driving forces, and ecological effects by identifying the main findings of land cover change in drylands at global and regional scales (especially in China) to strengthen the overall understanding of land cover change in drylands. Four main points were obtained. First, while most studies found that drylands were experiencing vegetation greening, some evidence showed decreases in vegetation and large increases in bare land due to inconsistencies in the datasets and the study phases. Second, the dominant factors affecting land cover change in drylands are precipitation, agricultural activities, and urban expansion. Third, the impact of land cover change on the water cycle, especially the impact of afforestation on water resources in drylands, is of great concern. Finally, drylands experience severe land degradation and require dataset matching (classification standards, resolution, etc.) to quantify the impact of human activities on land cover.

Direct and indirect effects of dominant plants on ecosystem multifunctionality

Biodiversity is essential for the provision of multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously (ecosystem multifunctionality EMF). Yet, it remains unclear whether and how dominant plant species impact EMF. Here, we aimed at disentangling the direct from indirect above- and belowground pathways by which dominant plant species influence EMF. We evaluated the effects of two dominant plant species (Dasiphora fruticosa, and the toxic perennial plant Ligularia virgaurea) with expected positive and negative impacts on the abiotic environment (soil water content and pH), surrounding biological communities (plant and nematode richness, biomass, and abundance in the vicinity), and on the EMF of alpine meadows, respectively. We found that the two dominant plants enhanced EMF, with a positive effect of L. virgaurea on EMF greater than that of D. fruticosa. We also observed that dominant plants impacted on EMF through changes in soil water content and pH (indirect abiotic effects), but not through changes in biodiversity of surrounding plants and nematodes (indirect biotic pathway). Our study suggests that dominant plants may play an important role in promoting EMF, thus expanding the pervasive mass-ratio hypothesis originally framed for individual functions, and could mitigate the negative impacts of vegetation changes on EMF in the alpine meadows.

Grand challenges in entomology: Priorities for action in the coming decades

Entomology is key to understanding terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems at a time of unprecedented anthropogenic environmental change and offers substantial untapped potential to benefit humanity in a variety of ways, from improving agricultural practices to managing vector-borne diseases and inspiring technological advances.We identified high priority challenges for entomology using an inclusive, open, and democratic four-stage prioritisation approach, conducted among the membership and affiliates (hereafter 'members') of the UK-based Royal Entomological Society (RES).A list of 710 challenges was gathered from 189 RES members. Thematic analysis was used to group suggestions, followed by an online vote to determine initial priorities, which were subsequently ranked during an online workshop involving 37 participants.The outcome was a set of 61 priority challenges within four groupings of related themes: (i) 'Fundamental Research' (themes: Taxonomy, 'Blue Skies' [defined as research ideas without immediate practical application], Methods and Techniques); (ii) 'Anthropogenic Impacts and Conservation' (themes: Anthropogenic Impacts, Conservation Options); (iii) 'Uses, Ecosystem Services and Disservices' (themes: Ecosystem Benefits, Technology and Resources [use of insects as a resource, or as inspiration], Pests); (iv) 'Collaboration, Engagement and Training' (themes: Knowledge Access, Training and Collaboration, Societal Engagement).Priority challenges encompass research questions, funding objectives, new technologies, and priorities for outreach and engagement. Examples include training taxonomists, establishing a global network of insect monitoring sites, understanding the extent of insect declines, exploring roles of cultivated insects in food supply chains, and connecting professional with amateur entomologists. Responses to different challenges could be led by amateur and professional entomologists, at all career stages.Overall, the challenges provide a diverse array of options to inspire and initiate entomological activities and reveal the potential of entomology to contribute to addressing global challenges related to human health and well-being, and environmental change.

We need to talk about nonprobability samples

In most circumstances, probability sampling is the only way to ensure unbiased inference about population quantities where a complete census is not possible. As we enter the era of 'big data', however, nonprobability samples, whose sampling mechanisms are unknown, are undergoing a renaissance. We explain why the use of nonprobability samples can lead to spurious conclusions, and why seemingly large nonprobability samples can be (effectively) very small. We also review some recent controversies surrounding the use of nonprobability samples in biodiversity monitoring. These points notwithstanding, we argue that nonprobability samples can be useful, provided that their limitations are assessed, mitigated where possible and clearly communicated. Ecologists can learn much from other disciplines on each of these fronts.

Identification of Pathogenic Leptospira kirschneri Serogroup Grippotyphosa in Water Voles (Arvicola terrestris) from Ruminant Pastures in Puy-de-Dôme, Central France

Rodents are the primary reservoirs for pathogenic Leptospira species, which cause leptospirosis. Among the key potential carriers are water voles, whose population outbreaks can consequently pose a major threat to human and animal health. We studied the prevalence, prominence, and epidemiology of pathogenic Leptospira species in water voles in central France. First, 46 voles were captured, and DNA was extracted from kidney, lung, liver, blood, and urine and tested for the presence of Leptospira using three molecular methods: PCR, O-antigen typing, and variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) typing. We also attempted to culture leptospires from kidney and urine samples. In addition, we investigated leptospiral antibodies in serum samples from 60 sheep using microscopic agglutination testing. These animals co-occurred with the voles, so we sought to assess their degree of exposure and involvement in pathogen dynamics. The overall prevalence of infection was 76.1% (CI_95% [61.2%, 87.4%]). The only strain found was L. kirschneri serogroup Grippotyphosa and a similar VNTR profile was acquired. Leptospires were successfully cultured from kidney and urine samples for four voles. Three sheep had low antibody titers against the Leptospira serogroup Grippotyphosa. Taken together, our results suggest the exclusive carriage of L. kirschneri serogroup Grippotyphosa among water voles in central France. Nevertheless, their ability to act as reservoir hosts that transmit the pathogen to co-occurring livestock remains unclear and merits further research.

Polyandry and non-random fertilisation maintain long-term genetic diversity in an isolated island population of adders (Vipera berus)

Conservation genetic theory suggests that small and isolated populations should be subject to reduced genetic diversity i.e., heterozygosity and allelic diversity. Our 34 years study of an isolated island population of adders (Vipera berus) in southern Sweden challenges this notion. Despite a lack of gene flow and a yearly mean estimated reproductive adult population size of only 65 adult adders (range 12-171), the population maintains high levels of heterozygosity and allelic diversity similar to that observed in two mainland populations. Even a 14-year major "bottleneck" i.e., a reduction in adult adder numbers, encompassing at least four adder generations, did not result in any reduction in the island adders' heterozygosity and allelic diversity. Female adders are polyandrous, and fertilisation is non-random, which our empirical data and modelling suggest are underpinning the maintenance of the population's high level of heterozygosity. Our empirical results and subsequent modelling suggest that the positive genetic effects of polyandry in combination with non-random fertilisation, often overlooked in conservation genetic analyses, deserve greater consideration when predicting long-term survival of small and isolated populations.

Habitat fragmentation matters more than habitat loss: The case of host-parasite interactions

While ecologists agree that habitat loss has a substantial negative effect on biodiversity it is still very much a matter of debate whether habitat fragmentation has a lesser effect and whether this effect is positive or negative for biodiversity. Here, we assess the relative influence of tropical forest loss and fragmentation on the prevalence of vector-borne blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus in six forest bird species. We also determine whether habitat loss and fragmentation are associated with a rise or fall in prevalence. We sample more than 4000 individual birds from 58 forest sites in Guadeloupe and Martinique. Considering 34 host-parasite combinations independently and a fine characterization of the amount and spatial configuration of habitat, we use partial least square regressions to disentangle the relative effects of forest loss, forest fragmentation, landscape heterogeneity, and local weather conditions on spatial variability of parasite prevalence. Then we test for the magnitude and the sign of the effect of each environmental descriptor. Strikingly, we show that forest fragmentation explains twice as much of the variance in prevalence as habitat loss or landscape heterogeneity. In addition, habitat fragmentation leads to an overall rise in prevalence in Guadeloupe, but its effect is variable in Martinique. Both habitat loss and landscape heterogeneity exhibit taxon-specific effects. Our results suggest that habitat loss and fragmentation may have contrasting effects between tropical and temperate regions and that inter-specific interactions may not respond in the same way as more commonly used biodiversity metrics such as abundance and diversity.

Tropical forest loss impoverishes arboreal mammal assemblages by increasing tree canopy openness

Landscape-scale deforestation poses a major threat to global biodiversity, not only because it limits habitat availability, but also because it can drive the degradation of the remaining habitat. However, the multiple pathways by which deforestation directly and indirectly affects wildlife remain poorly understood, especially for elusive forest-dependent species such as arboreal mammals. Using structural equation models, we assessed the direct and indirect effects of landscape forest loss on arboreal mammal assemblages in the Lacandona rainforest, Mexico. We placed camera traps in 100 canopy trees, and assessed the direct effect of forest cover and their indirect effects via changes in tree basal area and canopy openness on the abundance and diversity (i.e., species richness and exponential of Shannon entropy) of arboreal mammals. We found that forest loss had negative indirect effects on mammal richness through the increase of tree canopy openness. This could be related to the fact that canopy openness is usually inversely related to resource availability and canopy connectivity for arboreal mammals. Furthermore, independently of forest loss, the abundance and richness of arboreal mammals was positively related to tree basal area, which is typically higher in old-growth forests. Thus, our findings suggest that arboreal mammals generally prefer old-growth vegetation with relatively low canopy openness and high tree basal area. However, unexpectedly, forest loss was directly and positively related to the abundance and richness of mammals, probably due to a crowding effect, a reasonable possibility given the relatively short history (~40 years) of deforestation in the study region. Conversely, the Shannon diversity was not affected by the predictors we evaluated, suggesting that rare mammals (not the common species) are the ones most affected by these changes. All in all, our findings emphasize that conservation measures ought to focus on increasing forest cover in the landscape, and preventing the loss of large trees in the remaining forest patches.

From poops to planning: A broad non-invasive genetic survey of large mammals from the Indian Himalayan Region

Large forested landscapes often harbour significant amount of biodiversity and support mankind by rendering various livelihood opportunities and ecosystem services. Their periodic assessment for health and ecological integrity is essential for timely mitigation of any negative impact of human use due to over harvesting of natural resources or unsustainable developmental activities. In this context, monitoring of mega fauna may provide reasonable insights about the connectivity and quality of forested habitats. In the present study, we conducted a largest non-invasive genetic survey to explore mammalian diversity and genetically characterized 13 mammals from the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR). We analyzed 4806 faecal samples using 103 autosomal microsatellites and with three mitochondrial genes, we identified 37 species of mammal. We observed low to moderate level of genetic variability and most species exhibited stable demographic history. We estimated an unbiased population genetic account (PGA_unbias) for 13 species that may be monitored after a fixed time interval to understand species performance in response to the landscape changes. The present study has been evident to show pragmatic permeability with the representative sampling in the IHR in order to facilitate the development of species-oriented conservation and management programmes.

Worldwide impacts of landscape anthropization on mosquito abundance and diversity: A meta-analysis

In recent decades, the emergence and resurgence of vector-borne diseases have been well documented worldwide, especially in tropical regions where protection and defense tools for human populations are still very limited. In this context, the dynamics of pathogens are influenced by landscape anthropization (i.e., urbanization, deforestation, and agricultural development), and one of the mechanisms through which this occurs is a change in the abundance and/or diversity of the vectors. An increasing number of empirical studies have described heterogeneous effects of landscape anthropization on vector communities; therefore, it is difficult to have an overall picture of these effects on a global scale. Here, we performed a meta-analysis to quantify the impacts of landscape anthropization on a global scale on the presence/abundance and diversity of mosquitoes, the most important arthropods affecting human health. We obtained 338 effect sizes on 132 mosquito species, compiled from 107 studies in 52 countries that covered almost every part of the world. The results of the meta-analysis showed an overall decline of mosquito presence/abundance and diversity in response to urbanization, deforestation, and agricultural development, except for a few mosquito species that have been able to exploit landscape anthropization well. Our results highlighted that these few favored mosquito species are those of global concern. They, thus, provide a better understanding of the overall effect of landscape anthropization on vector communities and, more importantly, suggest a greater risk of emergence and transmission of vector-borne diseases in human-modified landscapes.

Quantifying the benefits of reducing synthetic nitrogen application policy on ecosystem carbon sequestration and biodiversity

Synthetic Nitrogen (N) usage in agriculture has greatly increased food supply over the past century. However, the intensive use of N fertilizer is nevertheless the source of numerous environmental issues and remains a major challenge for policymakers to understand, measure, and quantify the interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem carbon and terrestrial biodiversity loss. In this study, we investigate the impacts of a public policy scenario that aims to halve N fertilizer application across European Union (EU) agriculture on both carbon (C) sequestration and biodiversity changes. We quantify the impacts by integrating two economic models with an agricultural land surface model and a terrestrial biodiversity model (that uses data from a range of taxonomic groups, including plants, fungi, vertebrates and invertebrates). Here, we show that the two economic scenarios lead to different outcomes in terms of C sequestration potential and biodiversity. Land abandonment associated with increased fertilizer price scenario facilitates higher C sequestration in soils (+ 1014 MtC) and similar species richness levels (+ 1.9%) at the EU scale. On the other hand, the more extensive crop production scenario is associated with lower C sequestration potential in soils (- 97 MtC) and similar species richness levels (- 0.4%) because of a lower area of grazing land. Our results therefore highlight the complexity of the environmental consequences of a nitrogen reduction policy, which will depend fundamentally on how the economic models used to project consequences.

Planetary health & COVID-19: A multi-perspective investigation

COVID-19 can be characterized as an outcome of degraded planetary health drivers in complex systems and has wide-reaching implications in social, economic and environmental realms. To understand the drivers of planetary health that have influences of emergence and spread of COVID-19 and their implications for sustainability systems thinking and a narrative literature review are deployed. In particular, sixteen planetary health drivers are identified, i.e., population growth, climate change, agricultural intensification, urbanization, land use and land cover change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, globalization, wildlife trade, wet markets, non-planetary health diet, antimicrobial resistance, air pollution, water stress, poverty and weak governance. The implications of COVID-19 for planetary health are grouped in six categories: social, economic, environmental, technological, political, and public health. The implications for planetary health are then judged to see the impacts with respect to sustainable development goals (SDGs). The paper indicates that sustainable development goals are being hampered due to the planetary health implications of COVID-19.

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Identified and categorized drivers of planetary health for the emergence and spread of COVID-19.

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COVID-19 has implications in six categories of planetary health issues: social, economic, environment, technology, political and public health.

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COVID-19's planetary health implications have profound impacts on SDGs.

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Holistic measures are required to tackle the implications of COVID-19 for planetary health and SDGs.

Acoustic indices as proxies for biodiversity: a meta-analysis

As biodiversity decreases worldwide, the development of effective techniques to track changes in ecological communities becomes an urgent challenge. Together with other emerging methods in ecology, acoustic indices are increasingly being used as novel tools for rapid biodiversity assessment. These indices are based on mathematical formulae that summarise the acoustic features of audio samples, with the aim of extracting meaningful ecological information from soundscapes. However, the application of this automated method has revealed conflicting results across the literature, with conceptual and empirical controversies regarding its primary assumption: a correlation between acoustic and biological diversity. After more than a decade of research, we still lack a statistically informed synthesis of the power of acoustic indices that elucidates whether they effectively function as proxies for biological diversity. Here, we reviewed studies testing the relationship between diversity metrics (species abundance, species richness, species diversity, abundance of sounds, and diversity of sounds) and the 11 most commonly used acoustic indices. From 34 studies, we extracted 364 effect sizes that quantified the magnitude of the direct link between acoustic and biological estimates and conducted a meta-analysis. Overall, acoustic indices had a moderate positive relationship with the diversity metrics (r = 0.33, CI [0.23, 0.43]), and showed an inconsistent performance, with highly variable effect sizes both within and among studies. Over time, studies have been increasingly disregarding the validation of the acoustic estimates and those examining this link have been progressively reporting smaller effect sizes. Some of the studied indices [acoustic entropy index (H), normalised difference soundscape index (NDSI), and acoustic complexity index (ACI)] performed better in retrieving biological information, with abundance of sounds (number of sounds from identified or unidentified species) being the best estimated diversity facet of local communities. We found no effect of the type of monitored environment (terrestrial versus aquatic) and the procedure for extracting biological information (acoustic versus non-acoustic) on the performance of acoustic indices, suggesting certain potential to generalise their application across research contexts. We also identified common statistical issues and knowledge gaps that remain to be addressed in future research, such as a high rate of pseudoreplication and multiple unexplored combinations of metrics, taxa, and regions. Our findings confirm the limitations of acoustic indices to efficiently quantify alpha biodiversity and highlight that caution is necessary when using them as surrogates of diversity metrics, especially if employed as single predictors. Although these tools are able partially to capture changes in diversity metrics, endorsing to some extent the rationale behind acoustic indices and suggesting them as promising bases for future developments, they are far from being direct proxies for biodiversity. To guide more efficient use and future research, we review their principal theoretical and practical shortcomings, as well as prospects and challenges of acoustic indices in biodiversity assessment. Altogether, we provide the first comprehensive and statistically based overview on the relation between acoustic indices and biodiversity and pave the way for a more standardised and informed application for biodiversity monitoring.

Geosocial Features and Loss of Biodiversity Underlie Variable Rates of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in a Large Developing Country: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in developing countries may uncover etiopathogenic factors. We investigated IBD prevalence in Brazil by investigating its geographic, spatial, and temporal distribution, and attempted to identify factors associated with its recent increase.

METHODS

A drug prescription database was queried longitudinally to identify patients and verify population distribution and density, race, urbanicity, sanitation, and Human Development Index. Prevalence was calculated using the number of IBD patients and the population estimated during the same decade. Data were matched to indices using linear regression analyses.

RESULTS

We identified 162 894 IBD patients, 59% with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 41% with Crohn's disease (CD). The overall prevalence of IBD was 80 per 100 000, with 46 per 100 000 for UC and 36 per 100 000 for CD. Estimated rates adjusted to total population showed that IBD more than triplicated from 2008 to 2017. The distribution of IBD demonstrated a South-to-North gradient that generally followed population apportionment. However, marked regional differences and disease clusters were identified that did not fit with conventionally accepted IBD epidemiological associations, revealing that the rise of IBD was variable. In some areas, loss of biodiversity was associated with high IBD prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

When distribution is considered in the context of IBD prevalence, marked regional differences become evident. Despite a background of Westernization, hotspots of IBD are recognized that are not explained by population density, urbanicity, sanitation, or other indices but apparently are explained by biodiversity loss. Thus, the rise of IBD in developing countries is not uniform, but rather is one that varies depending on yet unexplored factors like geoecological conditions.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk Response Based on Planning Control

This study applied territorial spatial planning control to a land use multi-scenario simulation in Changde, China, and measured the landscape ecological risk response. It embedded five planning control schemes, respectively, involving inertial development, urban expansion size quantity control, ecological spatial structure control, land use zoning control, and comprehensive control. Findings show that: (1) Woodland and arable land in Changde occupy 31.10% and 43.35% of land use, respectively, and constitute the main functional space of the research area. The scale of construction land in Changde has enlarged continuously, with ecological space represented by woodland and water constantly squeezed and occupied. (2) Comprehensive control has the most remarkable restraining effect on the disordered spread of construction land, while ecological space structure control is the most effective way to control ecological land shrinkage. (3) The overall landscape ecological risk index expanded over 2009-2018, presenting an S-type time evolution curve of "sharp increase-mitigation". Landscape ecological risk presents a single-core, double-layer circle structure with the north and east regions as the core, attenuating to the periphery. (4) Landscape ecological risk under land use zoning control increased significantly more than in other scenarios. Comprehensive control best prevented landscape ecological risk and restrained the disorderly expansion of construction land.

Waterbody loss due to urban expansion of large Chinese cities in last three decades

Urban waterbodies are one of the most pertinent issues involved in multiple aspects of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, waterbodies in large Chinese cities are highly vulnerable to urban-land expansion, which is mostly due to economic development, population growth, and rural-urban migration. In this work, we selected 159 Chinese cities of over one million in population to investigate the encroachment on waterbodies due to rapid urbanization from 1990 to 2018. Overall, 20.6% of natural waterbody area was lost during this period to urban expansion, and this fraction varied from city to city which was related to waterbody abundance. With the acceleration of urbanization, waterbody occupation is becoming more serious (P < 0.01). However, in all cities, this encroachment has eased since 2010, which justifies the effective implementation of national-scale policies to conserve urban waterbodies. Meanwhile, gains have occurred during urbanization, in addition to the loss of waterbodies. Especially, cities lacking waterbody placed a greater emphasis on ecological factors, whose urban waterbody areas showed an increasing trend. In the future, ecological resources, including waterbody, should be considered in urban planning to provide reasonable protection to waterbodies in the quest for urban sustainability.

Synthesizing the connections between environmental disturbances and zoonotic spillover

Zoonotic spillover is a phenomenon characterized by the transfer of pathogens between different animal species. Most human emerging infectious diseases originate from non-human animals, and human-related environmental disturbances are the driving forces of the emergence of new human pathogens. Synthesizing the sequence of basic events involved in the emergence of new human pathogens is important for guiding the understanding, identification, and description of key aspects of human activities that can be changed to prevent new outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. This review synthesizes the connections between environmental disturbances and increased risk of spillover events based on the One Health perspective. Anthropogenic disturbances in the environment (e.g., deforestation, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, wildlife exploitation) lead to changes in ecological niches, reduction of the dilution effect, increased contact between humans and other animals, changes in the incidence and load of pathogens in animal populations, and alterations in the abiotic factors of landscapes. These phenomena can increase the risk of spillover events and, potentially, facilitate new infectious disease outbreaks. Using Brazil as a study model, this review brings a discussion concerning anthropogenic activities in the Amazon region and their potential impacts on spillover risk and spread of emerging diseases in this region.

High-resolution global maps of tidal flat ecosystems from 1984 to 2019

Assessments of the status of tidal flats, one of the most extensive coastal ecosystems, have been hampered by a lack of data on their global distribution and change. Here we present globally consistent, spatially-explicit data of the occurrence of tidal flats, defined as sand, rock or mud flats that undergo regular tidal inundation. More than 1.3 million Landsat images were processed to 54 composite metrics for twelve 3-year periods, spanning four decades (1984–1986 to 2017–2019). The composite metrics were used as predictor variables in a machine-learning classification trained with more than 10,000 globally distributed training samples. We assessed accuracy of the classification with 1,348 stratified random samples across the mapped area, which indicated overall map accuracies of 82.2% (80.0–84.3%, 95% confidence interval) and 86.1% (84.2–86.8%, 95% CI) for version 1.1 and 1.2 of the data, respectively. We expect these maps will provide a means to measure and monitor a range of processes that are affecting coastal ecosystems, including the impacts of human population growth and sea level rise.

Measurement(s)	ecosystem occurrence
Technology Type(s)	earth observation
Sample Characteristic - Environment	tidal flats • coastal wetlands
Sample Characteristic - Location	global