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Bastos A, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Chen C, Mialon A, Wigneron JP, Arora VK, Briggs PR, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Chevallier F, Cheng L, Delire C, Haverd V, Jain AK, Joos F, Kato E, Lienert S, Lombardozzi D, Melton JR, Myneni R, Nabel JEMS, Pongratz J, Poulter B, Rödenbeck C, Séférian R, Tian H, van Eck C, Viovy N, Vuichard N, Walker AP, Wiltshire A, Yang J, Zaehle S, Zeng N, Zhu D. Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 373:rstb.2017.0304. [PMID: 30297465 PMCID: PMC6178442 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr−1 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr−1 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Bastos
- Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, Munich D-80333, Germany .,Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
| | - Chi Chen
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Arnaud Mialon
- CESBIO, Université de Toulouse, CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
| | | | - Vivek K Arora
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8W2Y2
| | - Peter R Briggs
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Josep G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Frédéric Chevallier
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Lei Cheng
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, People's Republic of China
| | - Christine Delire
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRM, Unité 3589 CNRS/Meteo-France/Université Fédérale de Toulouse, Av G Coriolis, Toulouse 31057, France
| | - Vanessa Haverd
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
| | - Fortunat Joos
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern CH-3012, Switzerland
| | - Etsushi Kato
- Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
| | - Sebastian Lienert
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern CH-3012, Switzerland
| | - Danica Lombardozzi
- Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80302, USA
| | - Joe R Melton
- Climate Processes Section, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada V8W2Y2
| | - Ranga Myneni
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | | | - Julia Pongratz
- Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, Munich D-80333, Germany.,Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20816, USA
| | | | - Roland Séférian
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRM, Unité 3589 CNRS/Meteo-France/Université Fédérale de Toulouse, Av G Coriolis, Toulouse 31057, France
| | - Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
| | - Christel van Eck
- Department of Geoscience, Environment and Society, CP 160/02, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels 1050, Belgium
| | - Nicolas Viovy
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Nicolas Vuichard
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
| | - Anthony P Walker
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
| | | | - Jia Yang
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
| | - Sönke Zaehle
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Ning Zeng
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 100029, USA.,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing 20740, People's Republic of China
| | - Dan Zhu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
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