Predictive modeling of infant mortality

Participatory Health Cadre Model to Improve Exclusive Breastfeeding Coverage with King's Conceptual System

Objective

The purpose of this research is to develop a participatory health cadre model to enhance exclusive breastfeeding coverage through initial stages using the Imogene King model.

Methods

This study employs a mixed-methods approach with sequential exploratory designs. Qualitative research utilized in-depth interviews with informants including the head of the community health center, nutrition officers from the health center, the coordinator of Maternal and Child Health (MCH) midwives, village midwives, breastfeeding mothers, families of breastfeeding mothers, and health cadres. Quantitative research respondents consist of health cadres. The quantitative study utilizes a quasi-experimental method with a design paradigm known as the one-group pre and post-test design to measure health cadre perception on exclusive breastfeeding.

Results

This study yields elements from Imogene King that form a participatory health cadre model to enhance exclusive breastfeeding coverage, consisting of interaction, perception, communication, transaction, role, growth and development, time, and space. Transactions represent the objective integration of the health cadre participation model, as demonstrated by the behavioral shifts observed in mothers regarding breastfeeding their infants. The t-test results indicate that exclusive breastfeeding monitoring training is effective and successful in enhancing exclusive breastfeeding coverage (Sig. value = 0.000 < 0.05). In addition, the effectiveness of exclusive breastfeeding monitoring training falls within the category of good or high.

Conclusion

The research findings indicate the success of the participatory health cadre model in improving exclusive breastfeeding coverage.

Infant death prediction using machine learning: A population-based retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Despite declines in infant death rates in recent decades in the United States, the national goal of reducing infant death has not been reached. This study aims to predict infant death using machine-learning approaches.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective study of live births in the United States between 2016 and 2021 was conducted. Thirty-three factors related to birth facility, prenatal care and pregnancy history, labor and delivery, and newborn characteristics were used to predict infant death.

RESULTS

XGBoost demonstrated superior performance compared to the other four compared machine learning models. The original imbalanced dataset yielded better results than the balanced datasets created through oversampling procedures. The cross-validation of the XGBoost-based model consistently achieved high performance during both the pre-pandemic (2016-2019) and pandemic (2020-2021) periods. Specifically, the XGBoost-based model performed exceptionally well in predicting neonatal death (AUC: 0.98). The key predictors of infant death were identified as gestational age, birth weight, 5-min APGAR score, and prenatal visits. A simplified model based on these four predictors resulted in slightly inferior yet comparable performance to the all-predictor model (AUC: 0.91 vs. 0.93). Furthermore, the four-factor risk classification system effectively identified infant deaths in 2020 and 2021 for high-risk (88.7%-89.0%), medium-risk (4.6%-5.4%), and low-risk groups (0.1), outperforming the risk screening tool based on accumulated risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

XGBoost-based models excel in predicting infant death, providing valuable prognostic information for perinatal care education and counselling. The simplified four-predictor classification system could serve as a practical alternative for infant death risk prediction.

On usage of artificial intelligence for predicting mortality during and post-pregnancy: a systematic review of literature

BACKGROUND

Care during pregnancy, childbirth and puerperium are fundamental to avoid pathologies for the mother and her baby. However, health issues can occur during this period, causing misfortunes, such as the death of the fetus or neonate. Predictive models of fetal and infant deaths are important technological tools that can help to reduce mortality indexes. The main goal of this work is to present a systematic review of literature focused on computational models to predict mortality, covering stillbirth, perinatal, neonatal, and infant deaths, highlighting their methodology and the description of the proposed computational models.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of literature, limiting the search to the last 10 years of publications considering the five main scientific databases as source.

RESULTS

From 671 works, 18 of them were selected as primary studies for further analysis. We found that most of works are focused on prediction of neonatal deaths, using machine learning models (more specifically Random Forest). The top five most common features used to train models are birth weight, gestational age, sex of the child, Apgar score and mother's age. Having predictive models for preventing mortality during and post-pregnancy not only improve the mother's quality of life, as well as it can be a powerful and low-cost tool to decrease mortality ratios.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of this SRL, we can state that scientific efforts have been done in this area, but there are many open research opportunities to be developed by the community.

Risk Prediction for Stillbirth and Neonatal Mortality in Low-resource Settings

High stillbirth and neonatal mortality are major public health problems, particularly in low-resource settings in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Despite sustained efforts by national and international organizations over the last several decades, quality intrapartum and neonatal care is not universally available, especially in these low-resource settings. A few studies identify risk factors for adverse perinatal outcomes in low-resource settings in LMICs. This review highlights the evidence of risk prediction for stillbirth and neonatal death. Evidence using advanced machine-learning statistical models built on data from low-resource settings in LMICs suggests that the predictive accuracy for intrapartum stillbirth and neonatal mortality using prenatal and pre-delivery data is low. Models with delivery and post-delivery data have good predictive accuracy of the risk for neonatal mortality. Birth weight is the most important predictor of neonatal mortality. Further validation and testing of the models in other low-resource settings and subsequent development and testing of possible interventions could advance the field.

The Contribution of Data-Driven Technologies in Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set out to improve the quality of life of people in developed, emerging, and developing countries by covering social and economic aspects, with a focus on environmental sustainability. At the same time, data-driven technologies influence our lives in all areas and have caused fundamental economical and societal changes. This study presents a comprehensive literature review on how data-driven approaches have enabled or inhibited the successful achievement of the 17 SDGs to date. Our findings show that data-driven analytics and tools contribute to achieving the 17 SDGs, e.g., by making information more reliable, supporting better-informed decision-making, implementing data-based policies, prioritizing actions, and optimizing the allocation of resources. Based on a qualitative content analysis, results were aggregated into a conceptual framework, including the following categories: (1) uses of data-driven methods (e.g., monitoring, measurement, mapping or modeling, forecasting, risk assessment, and planning purposes), (2) resulting positive effects, (3) arising challenges, and (4) recommendations for action to overcome these challenges. Despite positive effects and versatile applications, problems such as data gaps, data biases, high energy consumption of computational resources, ethical concerns, privacy, ownership, and security issues stand in the way of achieving the 17 SDGs.