Predictors of 30-Day Readmission After Inpatient Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography: A Single-Center Experience

Development and application of an early warning model for predicting early mortality following stent placement in malignant biliary obstruction: A comparative analysis of logistic regression and artificial neural network approaches

Patients with malignant biliary obstruction (MBO) are often treated with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) combined with biliary stent placement for tumor progression. However, certain patients die within 30 days after the procedure, increasing healthcare resource consumption and patient burden. Therefore, the development of early mortality prediction models is important for optimizing treatment decisions. The present study retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 285 patients with MBO, including demographic information, laboratory indicators and tumor-related factors. Logistic regression and artificial neural network (ANN) models were used to construct a prediction tool, and the model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. The logistic regression model, which identified the cancer antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level and a history of previous ERCP surgery as independent risk factors, had an AUC of 0.727 and an accuracy of 65.0%. The ANN model, which combined five variables, namely CA19-9, history of previous ERCP surgery, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), liver metastasis and carcinoembryonic antigen, demonstrated that NLR was the most weighted predictor. Furthermore, the ANN model had an AUC of 0.813, an accuracy of 88.2% and a specificity that was markedly higher than that of the logistic regression model (95.5 vs. 83.3%). However, the ANN model was revealed to be slightly less sensitive compared with the logistic regression model (61.1 vs. 61.2%). In conclusion, compared with logistic regression, the ANN model had a greater performance level in terms of predictive power and specificity, and is suitable for capturing complex non-linear relationships. However, its complexity and risk of overfitting need to be further optimized. The present study provides a new tool for the accurate prediction of the risk of early death after ERCP in patients with MBO, which could help improve individualized treatment strategies.

Procedure-related readmissions following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in a liver transplant cohort

Background and Aim

Data on post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) adverse events and readmission rates in liver transplantation (LT) patients remain scarce. This study determined the 30-day procedure-related readmission rate following ERCP in an LT cohort at an Australian tertiary academic center.

Methods

All unplanned readmissions within 30 days following ERCP in orthotopic LT patients between December 2012 and August 2021 were retrospectively identified. Demographic data, procedure variables, and readmission characteristics were also collected.

Results

Forty-five procedure-related readmissions were identified (3.3%) from a total of 1369 ERCP procedures. This included 33 cases of cholangitis (2.4%), 7 cases of nonspecific abdominal pain (0.5%), 5 cases of mild post-ERCP pancreatitis (0.5%), and 3 cases of bleeding (0.2%). No procedure-related mortality was observed.

Conclusion

The procedure-related readmission rate following ERCP in this LT cohort was 3.3%, which is likely lower than comparable studies carried out on the overall population.

The hospital frailty risk score as a predictor of readmission after ERCP

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The 30-day readmission rate is a nationally recognized quality measure with nearly one-fifth of patients being readmitted. This study aims to evaluate frailty, as measured by the hospital frailty risk score (HFRS), as a prognostic indicator for 30-day readmission after inpatient ERCP.

METHODS

We analyzed weighted discharge records from the 2017 Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD) to identify patients undergoing ERCP between 01/01/2017 and 11/30/2017. Our primary outcome was the 30-day unplanned readmission rate in frail (defined as HFRS > 5) against non-frail (HFRS < 5) patients. A mixed effects multivariable logistic regression method was employed.

RESULTS

Among 68,206 weighted hospitalized patients undergoing ERCP, 31.3% were frail. Frailty was associated with higher 30-day readmission (OR 1.23, 95% CI [1.16-1.30]). Multivariable analysis showed a greater risk of readmission with cirrhosis (OR 1.26, 95% CI [1.10-1.45]), liver transplantation (OR 1.36, 95% CI [1.08-1.71]), cancer (OR 1.58, 95% CI [1.48-1.69]), and male gender (OR 1.24, 95% CI [1.18-1.31]). Frail patients also had higher mortality rate (1.8% vs 0.6%, p < 0.01)], longer LOS during readmission (6.7 vs 5.6 days, p < 0.01), and incurred more charges from both hospitalizations ($175,620 vs $132,519, p < 0.01). Sepsis was the most common primary indication for both frail and non-frail readmissions but accounted for a greater percentage of frail readmissions (17.9% vs 12.4%, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty is associated with higher readmission rates, mortality, LOS, and hospital charges for admitted patients undergoing ERCP. Sepsis is the leading cause for readmission. Independent risk factors for readmission include liver transplantation, cancer, cirrhosis, and male gender.

Clinical outcomes and predictors for 30-day readmissions of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in the United States

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess 30-day readmissions of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in the United States.

METHODS

The National Readmission Database was utilized from 2016 to 2020 to identify 30-day readmissions of ERCP. Hospitalization characteristics and outcomes were compared between index hospitalizations and readmissions. Predictors of 30-day readmission and mortality were also identified.

RESULTS

Between 2016 and 2020, 885 416 index hospitalizations underwent ERCP. Of these, 88 380 (10.15%) were readmitted within 30 days. Compared to index hospitalizations, 30-day readmissions had higher mean age (63.76 vs 60.8 years, P < 0.001) and proportion of patients with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score ≥3 (48.26% vs 29.91%, P < 0.001). Sepsis was the most common readmission diagnosis. Increasing age, male gender, higher CCI scores, admissions at large metropolitan teaching hospitals, cholecystectomy on index hospitalization, biliary stenting, increasing length of stay (LOS) at index admission, post-ERCP pancreatitis, post-ERCP hemorrhage, and gastrointestinal tract perforation were independent predictors of 30-day readmissions. Furthermore, 30-day readmissions had higher odds of inpatient mortality (4.42% vs 1.66%, aOR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.79-2.01, P < 0.001) compared to index hospitalizations. However, we noted a shorter LOS (5.78 vs 6.22 days, mean difference 1.2, 95% CI: 1.12-1.28, P < 0.001) and lower total hospital charge ($71 076 vs $93 418, mean difference $31 452, 95% CI: 29 835-33 069, P < 0.001) for 30-day readmissions compared to index hospitalizations. Increasing age, higher CCI scores, increasing LOS, biliary stenting, and post-ERCP hemorrhage were independent predictors of inpatient mortality for 30-day readmissions.

CONCLUSION

After index ERCP, the 30-day remission rate was 10.15%. Compared to index hospitalizations, 30-day readmissions had higher odds of inpatient mortality.

Readmission rate and complications following biopsy of the ampulla of Vater—A retrospective data analysis

Background and Aim

Obtaining endoscopic biopsies from the ampulla of Vater is important for the diagnosis of lesions that are suspicious for neoplasia. The clinical safety profile is not well defined in the literature. Our aim was to evaluate the procedure-related readmission rate and complications from ampullary biopsy in patients undergoing duodenoscopy and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP).

Methods

A retrospective data analysis was performed on adult patients at Austin Hospital who underwent ampullary biopsies between 1 January 2010 and 1 March 12022. Medical records were identified using pathology databases. The electronic health record was reviewed for baseline characteristics including demographics, date, indication for ampullary biopsy, procedure type (duodenoscopy or ERCP), and procedural associated interventions during ERCP. Readmissions to the Austin Emergency Department within 30 days following the biopsy were identified, and complications were noted.

Results

A total of 506 records were reviewed and 246 episodes of ampullary biopsy met the inclusion criteria. The procedure-related readmission rate for all episodes was 6.1%, which included pain (3.3%), pancreatitis (2.0%), cholangitis (1.6%), and bleeding (0.8%). Ampullary biopsies with ERCP had a procedure-related readmission rate of 8.4%, whereas ampullary biopsies without ERCP had a rate of 2.2%. Increased readmissions and complications were associated with male sex (P = 0.01 and P = 0.05, respectively). There was no association between the number of biopsies taken and complications.

Conclusion

Performing an ampullary biopsy without an associated ERCP carries a low rate of clinical complications and procedure-related readmissions. The combination of ERCP and ampullary biopsy increases the risk four-fold.

US Nationwide Insight Into All-cause 30-day Readmissions following Inpatient Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is associated with a high risk for morbidity, mortality, and hospital readmission. Data regarding those risks in the United States is scarce. We assessed post-ERCP 30-day readmission rates, their etiologies, and impact on the health care system using national data.

METHODS

Using the National Readmission Database 2016, we identified patients who underwent inpatient ERCP from January 2016 to December 2016 using ICD-10-CM procedure codes. The primary endpoint was all-cause 30-day readmission rate. Etiologies of readmission were identified by tallying primary diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression with complex survey design was used to identify independent risk factors associated with readmission.

RESULTS

A total of 130,145 patients underwent ERCP, 16,278 (12.5%) were readmitted within 30 days, with an associated cost of 268 million dollars. Nearly 40% of readmissions occurred within 7 days, and 47.9% were related to gastrointestinal etiologies. Male gender, increased comorbidities, cirrhosis, Medicare insurance, and pancreatitis or pancreatitis-related indications for ERCP were readmission risk factors. Performance of cholecystectomy on index hospitalization decreased odds of readmission by 50% (adjusted odds ratio: 0.48, 95% confidence interval: 0.45-0.52,P<0.0001). While academic and nonacademic centers had similar readmission rates, high ERCP volume centers had higher rates compared with low-volume centers (adjusted odds ratio:1.10,P=0.008).

CONCLUSION

All-cause 30-day readmission rates after inpatient ERCPs are high, mostly occur shortly postdischarge, and impose a heavy health care system burden. Large, multicenter prospective studies assessing the impact of center procedure volume on complications and readmission rates are needed.