Evaluation of the Cumulative Evidence for Freedom from BSE in Birth Cohorts

Analysis of German BSE Surveillance Data: Estimation of the Prevalence of Confirmed Cases versus the Number of Infected, but Non-Detected, Cattle to Assess Confidence in Freedom from Infection

Quantitative risk assessments for Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) necessitate estimates for key parameters such as the prevalence of infection, the probability of absence of infection in defined birth cohorts, and the numbers of BSE-infected, but non-detected cattle entering the food chain. We estimated three key parameters with adjustment for misclassification using the German BSE surveillance data using a Gompertz model for latent (i.e., unobserved) age-dependent detection probabilities and a Poisson response model for the number of BSE cases for birth cohorts 1999 to 2015. The models were combined in a Bayesian framework. We estimated the median true BSE prevalence between 3.74 and 0.216 cases per 100,000 animals for the birth cohorts 1990 to 2001 and observed a peak for the 1996 birth cohort with a point estimate of 16.41 cases per 100,000 cattle. For birth cohorts ranging from 2002 to 2013, the estimated median prevalence was below one case per 100,000 heads. The calculated confidence in freedom from disease (design prevalence 1 in 100,000) was above 99.5% for the birth cohorts 2002 to 2006. In conclusion, BSE surveillance in the healthy slaughtered cattle chain was extremely sensitive at the time, when BSE repeatedly occurred in Germany (2000–2009), because the entry of BSE-infected cattle into the food chain could virtually be prevented by the extensive surveillance program during these years and until 2015 (estimated non-detected cases/100.000 [95% credible interval] in 2000, 2009, and 2015 are 0.64 [0.5,0.8], 0.05 [0.01,0.14], and 0.19 [0.05,0.61], respectively).

Towards a standardised surveillance for Trichinella in the European Union

Each year, more than 167 million pigs in the European Union (EU) are tested for Trichinella spp. under the current meat hygiene regulations. This imposes large economic costs on countries, yet the vast majority of these pigs test negative and the public health risk in many countries is therefore considered very low. This work reviewed the current Trichinella status across the EU as well as the national level of monitoring and reporting. It also reviewed which animal species were affected by Trichinella and in which species it should be surveyed. This information was used to design a cost-effective surveillance programme that enables a standardised monitoring approach within the EU. The proposed surveillance programme relies on identifying sub-populations of animals with a distinct risk. Low-risk pigs are finisher pigs that originate from so-called controlled housing. All other pigs are considered high-risk pigs. Controlled housing is identified by the application of a specific list of management and husbandry practices. We suggest that member states (MS) be categorised into three classes based on the confidence that Trichinella can be considered absent, in the specified sub-population of pigs above a specified design prevalence which we set to 1 per million pigs. A simple and transparent method is proposed to estimate this confidence, based on the sensitivity of the surveillance system, taking into account the sensitivity of testing and the design prevalence. The probability of detecting a positive case, if present, must be high (>95 or >99%) to ensure that there is a low or negligible risk of transmission to humans through the food chain. In MS where the probability of a positive pig is demonstrated to be negligible, testing of fattening pigs from a sub-population consisting of pigs from controlled housing can be considered unnecessary. Furthermore, reduced testing of finishers from the sub-population consisting of pigs from non-controlled housing might even be considered, if conducted in conjunction with a proportionate sampling scheme and a risk-based wildlife surveillance programme where applicable. The proposed surveillance programme specifies the required number of samples to be taken and found negative, in a MS. A MS with no data or positive findings will initially be allocated to class 1, in which all pigs should be tested. When a MS is able to demonstrate a 95% or 99% confidence that Trichinella is absent, the MS will be allocated to class 2 or 3, in which the testing requirement is lower than in class 1.

Comparison of strategies for substantiating freedom from scrapie in a sheep flock

Background

The public health threat represented by a potential circulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy agent in sheep population has led European animal health authorities to launch large screening and genetic selection programmes. If demonstrated, such a circulation would have dramatic economic consequences for sheep breeding sector. In this context, it is important to evaluate the feasibility of qualification procedures that would allow sheep breeders demonstrating their flock is free from scrapie. Classical approaches, based on surveys designed to detect disease presence, do not account for scrapie specificities: the genetic variations of susceptibility and the absence of live diagnostic test routinely available. Adapting these approaches leads to a paradoxical situation in which a greater amount of testing is needed to substantiate disease freedom in genetically resistant flocks than in susceptible flocks, whereas probability of disease freedom is a priori higher in the former than in the latter. The goal of this study was to propose, evaluate and compare several qualification strategies for demonstrating a flock is free from scrapie.

Results

A probabilistic framework was defined that accounts for scrapie specificities and allows solving the preceding paradox. Six qualification strategies were defined that combine genotyping data, diagnostic tests results and flock pedigree. These were compared in two types of simulated flocks: resistant and susceptible flocks. Two strategies allowed demonstrating disease freedom in several years, for the majority of simulated flocks: a strategy in which all the flock animals are genotyped, and a strategy in which only founders animals are genotyped, the flock pedigree being known. In both cases, diagnostic tests are performed on culled animals. The less costly strategy varied according to the genetic context (resistant or susceptible) and to the relative costs of a genotyping exam and of a diagnostic test.

Conclusion

This work demonstrates that combining data sources allows substantiating a flock is free from scrapie within a reasonable time frame. Qualification schemes could thus be a useful tool for voluntary or mandatory scrapie control programmes. However, there is no general strategy that would always minimize the costs and choice of the strategy should be adapted to local genetic conditions.