The aging population in Sweden: can declining incidence rates in MI, stroke and cancer counterbalance the future demographic challenges?

The occurence of cancer in ageing populations at global and regional levels, 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

population ageing contributes to increased cancer cases and deaths and has profound implications for global healthcare systems. We estimated the trends of cancer cases and deaths in ageing populations at global and regional levels.

METHODS

using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we analysed the change in cancer cases and deaths associated with population ageing, population growth and epidemiological factors from 1990 to 2019 using decomposition analysis. Additionally, we estimated the proportions of people aged 65 years and over accounting for total cases and deaths, and investigated relationships between the proportions and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) using the Pearson correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

from 1990 to 2019, there was an increase of 128.9% for total cases and 74.8% for total deaths in all cancers combined; the percentages of older people increased from 48.6% to 56.4% for cases and from 52.0% to 61.9% for deaths. Population ageing contributed to the largest increase in global cancer occurrence, with 56.5% for cases and 63.3% for deaths. However, the changes attributed to epidemiological factors was 5.2% for cancer cases and -33.4% for cancer deaths. The proportions of total cases and deaths of older adults were positively correlated with socioeconomic development of the country.

CONCLUSION

our findings revealed that the main contributor to increased cancer cases and deaths has changed from comprehensive epidemiological factors to demographic shifts. To respond to the rapidly growing occurrence of cancer in ageing populations, the global health priority should focus on meeting the rising demand for cancer diagnosis, treatment and care services for older people.

Estimating the Future Burden of Myocardial Infarction in France Until 2035: An Illness-Death Model-Based Approach

Purpose

In France, myocardial infarction (MI) was the second leading cause of years of life lost in 2019. Estimating the burden of MI in future years could help policymakers and other actors anticipate care and prevention needs and guide them in public health decision-making.

Materials and Methods

Using data from the French hospital discharge database from 2007 to 2015 (n = 519,400), demographic data, and an illness-death model, we projected incidence, prevalence, number of prevalent cases and mean age of incident MI cases in France. The methodology took into account the age-cohort effect on MI incidence, mortality of healthy and diseased subjects, and the time since disease onset.

Results

Projections highlighted an increase in MI prevalence in men between 2015 and 2035 from 2.52% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): [2.48–2.56]) in 2015 to 4.02% ([3.92–4.12]) in 2035, and from 0.85% ([0.83–0.87]) to 1.44% ([1.38–1.50]) in women. This corresponds to an increase of 365,000 cases between 2015 and 2035 (+81.1%) for men and 146,000 cases for women (+88.0%). The difference in the mean age of incident cases between men and women decreased from 9.52 in 2015 to 5.49 years in 2035.

Conclusion

Our projections forecast an increase in MI prevalence between 2015 and 2035 in men and women, especially in relatively younger women. Using statistical models such as ours can help assess the impact of prevention campaigns for the main cardiovascular disease risk factors on the future MI prevalence.

Disability-adjusted life years associated with population ageing in China, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

The Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed.

METHODS

Based on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources.

RESULTS

Population ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (- 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (- 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Population ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.

Machine Learning Algorithm Identifies the Importance of Environmental Factors for Hospital Discharge to Home of Stroke Patients using Wheelchair after Discharge

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Physical environmental factors are generally likely to become barriers for discharge to home of wheelchair users, compared with non-wheelchair users. However, the importance of environmental factors has not been investigated adequately. Application of machine learning technology might efficiently identify the most influential factors, although it is not easy to interpret and integrate various information including individual and environmental factors in clinical stroke rehabilitation. This study aimed to identify the influential factors affecting home discharge in the stroke patients who use a wheelchair after discharge by using machine learning technology.

METHODS

This study used the rehabilitation database of our facility, which includes all stroke patients admitted into the convalescence rehabilitation ward. The chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) algorithm was used to develop a model to classify wheelchair-using stroke patients discharged to home or not-to-home.

RESULTS

Among the variables, including basic information, motor functional factor, activities of daily living ability factor, and environmental factors, the CHAID model identified house renovation and the existence of sloping roads around the house as the first and second discriminators for home discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Our present results could scientifically clarify that the clinician need to focus on the physical environmental factors for achieving home discharge in the patients who use a wheelchair after discharge.

Population ageing and mortality during 1990-2017: A global decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

As the number of older people globally increases, health systems need to be reformed to meet the growing need for medical resources. A few previous studies reported varying health impacts of population ageing, but they focused only on limited countries and diseases. We comprehensively quantify the impact of population ageing on mortality for 195 countries/territories and 169 causes of death.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017), this study derived the total number of deaths and population size for each year from 1990 to 2017. A decomposition method was used to attribute changes in total deaths to population growth, population ageing, and mortality change between 1990 and each subsequent year from 1991 through 2017, for 195 countries/territories and for countries grouped by World Bank economic development level. For countries with increases in deaths related to population ageing, we calculated the ratio of deaths attributed to mortality change to those attributed to population ageing. The proportion of people aged 65 years and older increased globally from 6.1% to 8.8%, and the number of global deaths increased by 9 million, between 1990 and 2017. Compared to 1990, 12 million additional global deaths in 2017 were associated with population ageing, corresponding to 27.9% of total global deaths. Population ageing was associated with increases in deaths in high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries but not in low-income countries. The proportions of deaths attributed to population ageing in 195 countries/territories ranged from -43.9% to 117.4% for males and -30.1% to 153.5% for females. The 2 largest contributions of population ageing to disease-specific deaths globally between 1990 and 2017 were for ischemic heart disease (3.2 million) and stroke (2.2 million). Population ageing was related to increases in deaths in 152 countries for males and 159 countries for females, and decreases in deaths in 43 countries for males and 36 countries for females, between 1990 and 2017. The decreases in deaths attributed to mortality change from 1990 to 2017 were more than the increases in deaths related to population ageing for the whole world, as well as in 55.3% (84/152) of countries for males and 47.8% (76/159) of countries for females where population ageing was associated with increased death burden. As the GBD 2017 does not provide variances in the estimated death numbers, we were not able to quantify uncertainty in our attribution estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that population ageing was associated with substantial changes in numbers of deaths between 1990 and 2017, but the attributed proportion of deaths varied widely across country income levels, countries, and causes of death. Specific preventive and therapeutic techniques should be implemented in different countries and territories to address the growing health needs related to population ageing, especially targeting the diseases associated with the largest increase in number of deaths in the elderly.

Trends in stroke incidence among elderly low-income residents of rural China: a population-based study from 1992 to 2016

In China, >70% of stroke deaths occur in people aged ≥65 years. However, trends in the stroke incidence among elderly people are unclear. We aimed to determine trends in the stroke incidence among elderly people in rural China. This was a population-based surveillance study conducted in Tianjin, China. Stroke events and all deaths were registered annually. Trends and annual proportion of change in incidence of first-ever stroke were evaluated from 1992 to 2016. The age-standardized incidence of first-ever stroke increased annually by 3.7% overall in elderly people (2.7% for men; 5.0% for women; all P<0.05). However, from 2008 to 2016, there was no significant change in the trends of stroke incidence among elderly people, across gender and subtypes. The proportion of elderly patients with first-ever stroke decreased by 1.1% annually. In contrast to young patients, annual changes in the incidence of stroke tended to be slight in elderly patients (3.7% vs. 9.5%) with greater increase in female patients than those in male patients (2.7% vs. 10.3% for men; 5.0% vs. 8.9% for women). Thus, the control of risk factors for stroke among elderly people is crucial, especially among older women, to reduce the burden of stroke in China.

Thirty-year trends in dementia: a nationwide population study of Swedish inpatient records

Background

The continuous growth of the current dementia epidemic is contingent on the stability of age- and sex-specific trends over time. However, recent evidence suggests declining or stable trends. The aim of this study was to evaluate the real-world changes in the burden of dementia in older adults in Sweden from 1987 to 2016 by estimating age- and sex-specific incidence of dementia diagnosis in hospital inpatient records (dementia incidence). Differences in trends by sex, age, and educational levels were also examined.

Methods

The entire Swedish population aged 65 years and older was followed up from 1987 to 2016. Age-, sex-, and education-stratified dementia incidence rates for every follow-up year were estimated using the National Patient Register. Hazard ratio of receiving a dementia diagnosis in the inpatient records per 1 calendar year increase was estimated with discrete time logistic models with a complementary log–log link.

Results

After increase, especially in those >85 years of age, dementia incidence started to decrease in the last 5 years of the study period. After 2011, 1 calendar year increase was associated with lower hazard ratio of receiving a hospital diagnosis of dementia. The decrease had the highest magnitude in 70–74-year-olds (−5.5%), followed by 75–79-year-olds (−4.5%) and 80–84-year-olds (−4.0%). The decrease was present in both sexes and at all educational levels up to 90 years of age. Age was associated with the level of dementia incidence, and the trends differed by age group. Educational gradient was observed. University-educated older adults had the lowest rates of dementia. However, the trend over time did not substantially differ by sex or educational level.

Conclusion

Our results provide more evidence that dementia incidence may be declining. They also suggest that at least in hospitals, the number of new patients with dementia may decrease in the future.

The Rotterdam Study: 2014 objectives and design update

The Rotterdam Study is a prospective cohort study ongoing since 1990 in the city of Rotterdam in The Netherlands. The study targets cardiovascular, endocrine, hepatic, neurological, ophthalmic, psychiatric, dermatological, oncological, and respiratory diseases. As of 2008, 14,926 subjects aged 45 years or over comprise the Rotterdam Study cohort. The findings of the Rotterdam Study have been presented in over a 1,000 research articles and reports (see www.erasmus-epidemiology.nl/rotterdamstudy ). This article gives the rationale of the study and its design. It also presents a summary of the major findings and an update of the objectives and methods.

Trends in age at first hospital admission in relation to trends in life expectancy in Swedish men and women above the age of 60

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether the first admission to hospital after the age of 60 has been postponed to higher ages for men and women in Sweden, in line with the shift in mortality.

DESIGN

This nationwide observational study was based on data obtained from national registries in Sweden. The study cohort was created by linking the Register of the Total Population in Sweden with the National Patient Register and the Swedish Cause of Death Register.

SETTING

The entire Swedish population born between 1895 and 1950 was followed up between 1987 and 2010 with respect to hospital admissions and deaths using the national registry data.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The time from age 60 until the first admission to the hospital, regardless of the diagnosis, and the time from age 60 until death (remaining life expectancy, LE) were estimated for the years 1995-2010. The difference between these two measures was also estimated for the same period.

RESULTS

Between 1995 and 2010 mortality as well as first hospital admission shifted to higher ages. The average time from age 60, 70, 80 and 90 until the first hospital admission increased at all ages. The remaining LE at age 60, 70 and 80 increased for men and women. For the 90-year-olds it was stable.

CONCLUSIONS

In Sweden, the first hospital admission after the age of 60 has been pushed to higher ages in line with mortality for the ages 60 and above. First admission to the hospital could indicate the onset of first severe morbidity; however, the reorganisation of healthcare may also have influenced the observed trends.

Age-specific trends in morbidity, mortality and case-fatality from cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction and stroke in advanced age: evaluation in the Swedish population

Background

It is not clear if the downward trend in cardiovascular disease (CVD) observed for ages up to 85 years can be extended to the oldest old, those 85 years and above.

Methods and Findings

This nationwide cohort study presents age specific trends of CVD as well as for myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke separately for the period 1994 to 2010 for individuals 85 to 99 years old in Sweden. Data were extracted from national registries. All analyses were based on one-year age- and sex- specific figures. The risk for CVD increased with every age above 85 years although the rate of increase leveled off with age. Over time, the risk for CVD and MI decreased for all ages, and for stroke for ages up to 89 years. However, the risk of MI increased until around 2001 in all age groups and both sexes but decreased after that. The overall mortality improved for all outcomes over the period 1994 to 2010, so did the survival within 28 days from an event. The average annual decline in mortality over all ages, 85 and above was 3% for MI, 2% for stroke and for 2% CVD. Corresponding figures for ages 60–84 was 4% for each of MI, stroke and CVD. The results were similar for men and women.

Conclusions

Improvements in CVD risks observed among ages up to 85 years appear to have extended also to ages above 85 years, even if the rate of improvement plateaued with age. The improvements in survival for all ages up to 99 years give no support to the hypothesis that more fragile individuals reach higher ages. Additional research is needed to find out if improvement in survival can be seen also for the second and third event of CVD, stroke and MI.

Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the african region

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In low- and middle-income countries, the total burden of cardiovascular diseases is expected to increase due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. However, data on cause-specific mortality are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. Seychelles is one of the few countries in the region where all deaths are registered and medically certified. In this study, we examine trends in mortality for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) between 1989 and 2010.

METHODS

Based on vital statistics, we ascertained stroke and MI as the cause of death if appearing in any of the 4 fields for immediate, intermediate, underlying, and contributory causes in death certificates.

RESULTS

Mortality rates (per 100 000, age-standardized to World Health Organization standard population) decreased from 1669/710 (men/women) in 1989 to 1991 to 1113/535 in 2008-10 for all causes, from 250/140 to 141/86 for stroke, and from 117/51 to 59/24 for MI, corresponding to proportionate decreases of 33%/25% for all-cause mortality, 44%/39% for stroke, and 50%/53% for MI over 22 years. The absolute number of stroke and MI deaths did not increase over time. In 2008 to 2010, the median age of death was 65/78 years (men/women) for all causes, 68/78 for stroke, and 66/73 for MI.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1989 and 2010, age-standardized stroke and MI mortality decreased markedly and more rapidly than all-cause mortality. The absolute number of cardiovascular disease deaths did not increase over time because the impact of population aging was fully compensated by the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality. Stroke mortality remained high, emphasizing the need to strengthen cardiovascular disease prevention and control.