Comparing closure compliance and ease of use for consumer product packs designed to reduce access to children

Child impeding packs are difficult for children to open so protect them from unintended access to hazardous contents inside the pack. However, if packs are difficult for adults to open, in normal usage scenarios, this may result in a higher occurrence of packs being left open. This research explores differences in ease of usage and closure compliance between two types of child impeding packs of liquid laundry detergent capsules. The two packs, "Pinch & Lift" and "Press & Lift", had different opening and closing mechanisms. "Press & Lift" also included an audible "click" signal to confirm complete closure to the user. The research was performed across two studies. In both studies, the packs were used in participants' homes according to their usual storage and usage practices as replacements to their current liquid laundry detergent capsule pack. All participants had small children living with them in their household. In Study 1, self-reported closure and ease of use data was collected from 99 adult participants in Germany. They used each package in their home for 10 days. Study 2 extended Study 1 by measuring closure rates with an objective assessment using in pack sensors for a 10-day period for each pack. Self-reported closure and ease of use data were also collected. Study 2 was conducted with 87 participants in the United Kingdom. Results across both studies showed "Press & Lift" with the audible "Click" close signal to be rated by participants to be significantly easier to open and close and have a higher self-reported closure rate than "Pinch & Lift". In addition, Study 2 results demonstrated higher closure rates using "Press & Lift" based on the sensor-measured closure compliance. Together, the results suggest transition to a pack with a mechanism that is child impeding and easier for an adult to use with an audible closure signal, like the "Press & Lift" system, has potential to reduce child access to a capsule from a pack by reducing the likelihood of the pack being left open by the adult user. Ultimately, such packs could protect children from potential poisoning injury across a range of consumer products.

Teaching children pedestrian safety in virtual reality via smartphone: a noninferiority randomized clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether child pedestrian safety training in a smartphone-based virtual reality (VR) environment is not inferior to training in a large, semi-immersive VR environment with demonstrated effectiveness.

METHODS

Five hundred 7- and 8-year-old children participated; 479 were randomized to one of two conditions: Learning to cross streets in a smartphone-based VR or learning in a semi-immersive kiosk VR. The systems used identical virtual environments and scenarios. At baseline, children's pedestrian skills were assessed in both VR systems and through a vehicle approach estimation task (judging speed/distance of oncoming traffic on monitor). Training in both conditions comprised at least six 30-min sessions in the randomly assigned VR platform and continued for up to 25 visits until adult-level proficiency was obtained. Following training and again 6 months later, children completed pedestrian safety assessments identical to baseline. Three outcomes were considered from assessments in each VR platform: Unsafe crossings (collisions plus close calls), time to contact (shortest time between child and oncoming simulated traffic), and missed opportunities (unselected safe opportunities to cross).

RESULTS

Participants achieved adult-level street-crossing skill through VR training. Training in a smartphone-based VR system was generally not inferior to training in a large semi-immersive VR system. There were no adverse effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Seven- and 8-year-old children can learn pedestrian safety through VR-based training, including training in a smartphone-based VR system. Combined with recent meta-analytic results, the present findings support broad implementation and dissemination of child pedestrian safety training through VR, including smartphone-based VR systems.

Superhero Pretense, Superhero Identification, and Risk-Taking in Preschool-Aged Children

OBJECTIVE

The preschool years represent a stage of rapid human development, hallmarked by exploring the environment through gross and fine motor movement and imaginative pretend play. This exploration is developmentally appropriate but also presents risks for injury, the leading cause of death for preschool-aged children. Common injuries reflect exploration and risk-taking exhibited during play, and play may be particularly risky when children imitate risky models like superheroes. Frequent exposure and subsequent identification with superheroes are concerning because the media glorifies superheroes, creating social learning effects on children and promoting play situations where children may attempt superhuman abilities and hurt themselves. This study examined the relations between pretend play, superhero identification, and children's risk-taking.

METHODS

One hundred five children aged 4-5 years old were randomly assigned to either a superhero- or school-themed, story-based protocol. In both conditions, children engaged in three identical behavioral tasks to assess risk-taking. Identification with superheroes was measured using parent-report questionnaires and child interviews.

RESULTS

Pretending to be a superhero was not associated with increased risk-taking behavior acutely, but identification with superheroes was associated in some analyses with preschool children's broader risk-taking behavior. Across risk-taking behavior tasks, children with high superhero identification pretending to be superheroes tended to take the most risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the popularity of superhero media and the present results suggesting superhero identification may relate to injury-risk situations during play, prevention efforts should consider ways to reduce young children's exposure to superheroes and/or mitigate injury risk during active pretend play.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Injury Mortality of Children and Adolescents Aged 0-19 Years - China, 2010-2021

Introduction

To examine the recent trends in child injury mortality in China.

Methods

Injury mortality data of 2010-2021 for children and adolescents aged 0-19 years were from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. Injury mortality disparities across urban vs. rural locations, gender, and age groups were scrutinized. Annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC), and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estiamted usimg Joinpoint regression models.

Results

The age-standardized injury mortality significantly dropped from 21.87 to 9.41 per 100,000 population among children and youth aged 0-19 years during 2010-2021, with an AAPC of -6.7% (95% CI: -8.2%, -5.2%). The urban-rural disparity and gender gap in injury mortality reduced gradually. In 2021, drowning and road traffic crashes were the top two causes of child injury deaths, explaing 31.1% and 27.9% of total injury deaths, respectively. Suffocation accounted for 62.3% of injury deaths among infants younger than a year. Alarmingly, the suicide mortality rate rose from 2.16 to 3.42 per 100,000 population between 2010 and 2021 among teenagers aged 15-19 years. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results.

Conclusions

During 2010-2021, the injury mortality decreased significantly among Chinese children and adolescents, and the responding urban-rural disparities narrowed.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The more peers are present, the more adventurous? How peer presence influences adolescent pedestrian safety

Objective

Adolescence is a high-risk period for traffic injury. One factor that may impact adolescent safety in traffic is the presence of peers. We conducted a quasi-experimental research study to examine the impact of peer presence, peer familiarity, and peer group size on adolescent pedestrian risk-taking intentions in both sidewalk and street-crossing settings.

Methods

607 students aged 12-18 years from Nantong city, China, completed a questionnaire that presented 20 traffic scenarios. The scenarios varied based on a 3 (peer group size: no peer vs. one peer vs. multiple peers) x 2 (peer familiarity: familiar vs. unfamiliar) x 2 (traffic setting: crossing the street vs. walking on the roadside) experimental design. Adolescents' responses indicated safer vs riskier intentions in each situation.

Results

Results found that: (1) Adolescents were safer when walking on the sidewalk than when crossing the street; (2) Whether crossing the street or walking on the sidewalk, adolescents' behavioral intentions were safer when there were peers present than when there were no peers present; (3) Adolescents' safety tended to be higher overall with unfamiliar peers than with familiar peers; (4) Adolescents were less safe when crossing the street with familiar peer(s) than with unfamiliar peer(s), but no differences emerged when walking on the sidewalk.

Conclusions

Adolescents report safer behavior when walking with a peer or peers compared with walking alone. Familiar peers reduce adolescents' safety of behavior intentions in traffic, especially when crossing the street.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Validity across four common street-crossing distraction indicators to predict pedestrian safety

BACKGROUND

Multiple distraction indicators have been applied to measure street-crossing distraction but their validities in predicting pedestrian safety are poorly understood.

METHODS

Based on a video-based observational study, we compared the validity of four commonly used distraction indicators (total duration of distraction while crossing a street, proportion of distracted time over total street-crossing time, duration of the longest distraction time, and total number of distractions) in predicting three pedestrian safety outcomes (near-crash incidence, frequency of looking left and right, and speed crossing the street) across three types of distraction (mobile phone use, talking to other pedestrians, eating/drinking/smoking). Change in Harrell's C statistic was calculated to assess the validity of each distraction indicator based on multivariable regression models including only covariates and including both covariates and the distraction indicator.

RESULTS

Heterogeneous capacities in predicting the three safety outcomes across the four distraction indicators were observed: 1) duration of the longest distraction time was most predictive for the occurrence of near-crashes and looks left and right among pedestrians with all three types of distraction combined and talking with other pedestrians (Harrell's C statistic changes ranged from 0.0310 to 0.0335, P < 0.05), and for the occurrence of near-crashes for pedestrians involving mobile phone use (Harrell's C statistic change: 0.0053); 2) total duration of distraction was most predictive for speed crossing the street among pedestrians with the combination and each of the three types of distraction (Harrell's C statistic changes ranged from 0.0037 to 0.0111, P < 0.05), frequency of looking left and right among pedestrians distracted by mobile phone use (Harrell's C statistic change: 0.0115), and the occurrence of near-crash among pedestrians eating, drinking, or smoking (Harrell's C statistic change: 0.0119); and 3) the total number of distractions was the most predictive indicator of frequency of looking left and right among pedestrians eating, drinking, or smoking (Harrell's C statistic change: 0.0013). Sensitivity analyses showed the results were robust to change in grouping criteria of the four distraction indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should consider the pedestrian safety outcomes and type of distractions to select the best distraction indicator.

Global Deaths Associated with Population Aging - 1990-2019

Introduction

Published global and country-specific deaths associated with population aging are based on decomposition methods that have significant limitations.

Methods

A new decomposition method was developed and its performance was compared with two frequently used methods. The new method was employed to calculate global deaths associated with population aging between 1990 and 2019, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019).

Results

Compared to the two frequently-used existing methods, the new decomposition method generated results that are more consistent with logical expectations. Using the new method, the number of global deaths associated with population aging between 1990 and 2019 was 23.3 million. Upper middle-income countries accounted for 43% of global deaths related to population aging. The most deaths associated with population aging occurred from three types of disease: ischemic heart disease (5.0 million), stroke (3.8 million), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.2 million). China, India, Japan, the United States of America, and Brazil had the largest number of deaths related to population aging. Loss related to population aging was completely or partially counteracted by the reduction in mortality in 195 of the 200 countries and territories experiencing population aging (97.5%).

Conclusions

The new decomposition method achieves more justifiable results associated with population aging than existing methods. Globally, population aging was associated with a substantial increase of deaths between 1990 and 2019, but it was totally or partially offset by the reduction in mortality in 97.5% of countries and territories.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis on the Efficacy of Virtual Reality Pedestrian Interventions to Teach Children How to Cross Streets Safely

OBJECTIVE

Over 7,000 American children die from pedestrian injuries annually, and pedestrian injury ranks among the top 5 causes of unintentional child death. Prevention efforts are multifaceted. One strategy, use of virtual reality (VR) to teach children to cross streets, is of growing interest to public health practitioners. The present study is a systematic review and meta-analysis that examined the efficacy of using VR to teach children pedestrian safety.

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, searches among 7 databases were completed, followed by abstract/full-text screening and data extraction. Hedge's g was computed for the effect sizes of 3 outcomes: pedestrian knowledge, pedestrian-relevant cognition (attention to traffic, time to contact, start delay), and pedestrian behaviors (safe crossings, unsafe crossings). Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane guidelines. Meta-regression analyses and subgroup analyses were conducted including 3 moderators: age, sex, and immersion level.

RESULTS

A total of 20 studies, reported in 24 articles, were included in the qualitative analysis. Meta-analysis of the 12 studies with sufficient quantitative data available showed a statistically significant medium effect of VR safety interventions on child pedestrian knowledge and behavior. Mixed results emerged for the effect of VR safety interventions on children's pedestrian-relevant cognition. Age and sex moderated the effect of VR training on pedestrian knowledge.

CONCLUSIONS

This synthesis of the literature on pediatric VR pedestrian safety interventions suggests an overall beneficial impact of VR interventions to teach children how to cross streets safely. Efforts should continue to develop and disseminate effective VR interventions.

REGISTRATION ID

CRD42022309352.

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Road traffic death coding quality in the WHO Mortality Database

Objective

To evaluate the precision and dependability of road traffic mortality data recorded in the World Health Organization Mortality Database and investigate how uncorrected data influence vital mortality statistics used in traffic safety programmes worldwide.

Methods

We assessed country and territory-specific data quality from 2015 to 2020 by calculating the proportions of five types of nonspecific cause of death codes related to road traffic mortality. We compared age-adjusted road traffic mortality and changes in the average annual mortality rate before and after correcting the deaths with nonspecific codes. We generated road traffic mortality projections with both corrected and uncorrected codes, and redistributed the data using the proportionate method.

Findings

We analysed data from 124 countries and territories with at least one year of mortality data from 2015 to 2020. The number of countries and territories reporting more than 20% of deaths with ill-defined or unknown cause was 2; countries reporting injury deaths with undetermined intent was 3; countries reporting unspecified unintentional injury deaths was 21; countries reporting unspecified transport crash deaths was 3; and countries reporting unspecified unintentional road traffic deaths was 30. After redistributing deaths with nonspecific codes, road traffic mortality changed by greater than 50% in 7% (5/73) to 18% (9/51) of countries and territories.

Conclusion

Nonspecific codes led to inaccurate mortality estimates in many countries. We recommend that injury researchers and policy-makers acknowledge the potential pitfalls of relying on raw or uncorrected road traffic mortality data and instead use corrected data to ensure more accurate estimates when improving road traffic safety programmes.

Value of the short physical performance battery (SPPB) in predicting fall and fall-induced injury among old Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

The short physical performance battery (SPPB) is an easy-to-use tool for fall risk prediction, but its predictive value for falls and fall-induced injuries among community dwellers has not been examined through a large-sample longitudinal study.

METHODS

We analyzed five-round follow-up data (2, 3, 4, 5, 7 years) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) (2011-2018). Data concerning falls and fall-induced injuries during multi-round follow-ups were collected through participant self-report. The Cochran-Armitage trend test examined trends in fall incidence rate across SPPB performance levels. Multivariable logistic regression and negative binomial regression models examined associations between SPPB performance and subsequent fall and fall-induced injury. The goodness-of-fit and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were used together to quantify the value of the SPPB in predicting fall and fall-induced injury among community-dwelling older adults.

RESULTS

The CHARLS study included 9279, 6153, 4142, 4148, and 3583 eligible adults aged 60 years and older in the five included follow-up time periods. SPPB performance was associated with fall and fall-induced injury in two and three of the five follow-up time periods, respectively (P < 0.05). The goodness-of-fit for all predictive models was poor, with both Cox-Snell R2 and Nagelkerke R2 under 0.10 and AUCs of 0.53-0.57 when using only SPPB as a predictor and with both Cox-Snell R2 and Nagelkerke R2 lower than 0.12 and AUCs of 0.61-0.67 when using SPPB, demographic variables, and self-reported health conditions as predictors together. Sex and age-specific analyses displayed highly similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither use of SPPB alone nor SPPB together with demographic variables and self-reported health conditions appears to offer good predictive performance for falls or fall-induced injuries among community-dwelling older Chinese adults.

Content Quality of Web-Based Short-Form Videos for Fire and Burn Prevention in China: Content Analysis

BACKGROUND

Web-based short-form videos are increasingly popular for disseminating fire and burn prevention information, but their content quality is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to systematically assess the characteristics, content quality, and public impact of web-based short-form videos offering primary and secondary (first aid) prevention recommendations for fires and burns in China between 2018 and 2021.

METHODS

We retrieved short-form videos offering both primary and secondary (first aid) information to prevent fire and burn injuries published on the 3 most popular web-based short-form video platforms in China: TikTok, Kwai, and Bilibili. To assess video content quality, we calculated the proportion of short-form videos that included information on each of the 15 recommendations for burn prevention education from the World Health Organization (WHO; P1) and that correctly disseminated each recommendation (P2). High P1 and P2 indicated better content quality. To assess their public impact, we calculated the median (IQR) of 3 indicators: the number of comments, likes, and saves as a favorite by viewers. Chi-square test, trend chi-square test, and Kruskal-Wallis H test examined differences in indicators across the 3 platforms, years, content, and time duration of videos and between videos disseminating correct versus incorrect information.

RESULTS

Overall, 1459 eligible short-form videos were included. The number of short-form videos increased by 16 times between 2018 and 2021. Of them, 93.97% (n=1371) were about secondary prevention (first aid) and 86.02% (n=1255) lasted <2 minutes. The proportion of short-form videos including each of the 15 WHO recommendations ranged from 0% to 77.86% (n=1136). Recommendations 8, 13, and 11 had the highest proportions (n=1136, 77.86%; n=827, 56.68%; and n=801, 54.9%, respectively), whereas recommendations 3 and 5 were never mentioned. Among the short-form videos that included the WHO recommendations, recommendations 1, 2, 4, 6, 9, and 12 were always disseminated correctly, but the other 9 recommendations were correctly disseminated in 59.11% (120/203) to 98.68% (1121/1136) of videos. The proportion of short-form videos including and correctly disseminating the WHO recommendations varied across platforms and years. The public impact of short videos varied greatly across videos, with a median (IQR) of 5 (0-34) comments, 62 (7-841) likes, and 4 (0-27) saves as a favorite. Short-form videos disseminating correct recommendations had larger public impact than those disseminating either partially correct or incorrect knowledge (median 5 vs 4 comments, 68 vs 51 likes, and 5 vs 3 saves as a favorite, respectively; all P<.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the rapid increase in the number of web-based short-form videos about fire and burn prevention available in China, their content quality and public impact were generally low. Systematic efforts are recommended to improve the content quality and public impact of short-form videos on injury prevention topics such as fire and burn prevention.

Suicide Mortality by Place, Gender, and Age Group - China, 2010-2021

Introduction

Suicide is an important public health concern in China. We examined suicide mortality by place, sex, and age group from 2010 to 2021 to identify and quantify significant suicide mortality changes in China.

Methods

We retrieved age-standardized and age-specific suicide mortality rates by place (urban vs. rural) and sex from the Chinese Health Statistical Yearbook and population data from the 2010 and 2020 Chinese National Population Census. Line graphs were used to demonstrate trends in suicide mortality. Joinpoint regression models were fitted to detect the time periods experiencing significant suicide mortality changes, and average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change were reported to quantify changes in suicide mortality from 2010 to 2021.

Results

The overall age-standardized suicide mortality rate decreased from 10.88 to 5.25 per 100,000 population between 2010 and 2021 (AAPC=-5.3%, 95% confidence interval: -6.5%, -4.0%). Similar reductions in suicide mortality were observed for both males and females, as well as in urban and rural settings during this period. From 2010 to 2021, significant declines in suicide mortality were observed among the three older age groups (25-44 years, 45-64 years, and 65 years or above), while a substantial increase was noted in the youngest age group (5-14 years). No significant change was found in suicide mortality rates for the 15-24 year age group. Subgroup analyses based on location and sex revealed consistent findings.

Conclusion

The findings of this study suggest a probable overall success of suicide prevention efforts in China over the past decade. However, the recent increase in suicide mortality among children aged 5-14 years calls for the attention of injury researchers, policymakers, and public health practitioners.

Virtual Risk Management-Exploring Effects of Childhood Risk Experiences through Innovative Methods (ViRMa) for Primary School Children in Norway: Study Protocol for the ViRMa Project

BACKGROUND

Research indicates that risky play benefits children's risk assessment and risk management skills and offers several positive health effects such as resilience, social skills, physical activity, well-being, and involvement. There are also indications that the lack of risky play and autonomy increases the likelihood of anxiety. Despite its well-documented importance, and the willingness of children to engage in risky play, this type of play is increasingly restricted. Assessing long-term effects of risky play has been problematic because of ethical issues with conducting studies designed to allow or encourage children to take physical risks with the potential of injury.

OBJECTIVE

The Virtual Risk Management project aims to examine children's development of risk management skills through risky play. To accomplish this, the project aims to use and validate newly developed and ethically appropriate data collection tools such as virtual reality, eye tracking, and motion capturing, and to provide insight into how children assess and handle risk situations and how children's past risky play experiences are associated with their risk management.

METHODS

We will recruit 500 children aged 7-10 years and their parents from primary schools in Norway. Children's risk management will be measured through data concerning their risk assessment, risk willingness, and risk handling when completing a number of tasks in 3 categories of virtual reality scenarios: street crossing, river crossing, and playing on playground equipment. The children will move around physically in a large space while conducting the tasks and wear 17 motion-capturing sensors that will measure their movements to analyze motor skills. We will also collect data on children's perceived motor competence and their sensation-seeking personality. To obtain data on children's risk experiences, parents will complete questionnaires on their parental style and risk tolerance, as well as information about the child's practical risk experience.

RESULTS

Four schools have been recruited to participate in data collection. The recruitment of children and parents for this study started in December 2022, and as of April 2023, a total of 433 parents have consented for their children to participate.

CONCLUSIONS

The Virtual Risk Management project will increase our understanding of how children's characteristics, upbringing, and previous experiences influence their learning and ability to handle challenges. Through development and use of cutting-edge technology and previously developed measures to describe aspects of the children's past experiences, this project addresses crucial topics related to children's health and development. Such knowledge may guide pedagogical questions and the development of educational, injury prevention, and other health-related interventions, and reveal essential areas for focus in future studies. It may also impact how risk is addressed in crucial societal institutions such as the family, early childhood education, and schools.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/45857.

Mobile phone use while cycling among e-bikers in China: Reasoned or social reactive?

INTRODUCTION

China has the largest number of e-bikers in the world, and e-bike crashes cause thousands of fatalities and tens of thousands of serious injuries annually. Mobile phone use while e-biking is a violation of Chinese law and associated with increased crash risk. The current study investigated mobile phone use behavior while cycling among Chinese e-bikers and the psychological factors surrounding why individuals might choose to engage in this risk-taking behavior.

METHOD

In particular, this study investigates whether the decision to use a mobile phone while cycling is explained through reasoned decision making or is a social reactive decision, or both, as defined by the prototype willingness model (PWM). Questionnaire data were collected from 784 Chinese adults with e-bike experience.

RESULTS

Results showed that 40.2 % of the participants reported mobile phone use while cycling e-bikes in the past month. Both behavioral intention and behavioral willingness were predictors of mobile phone while using e-bikes, and they were approximately equal in their magnitude of predictive power (β_BI = 0.25; β_BW = 0.26). E-bikers' attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and perception of prototype similarity and favorability were strong predictors of intention, willingness, and self-reported behavior to use mobile phones while e-biking.

CONCLUSIONS

Both social reactive decision-making and reasoned decision-making contribute to decisions to use a mobile phone while riding an e-bike.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

Results have implications for guiding development of interventions to prevent and reduce mobile phone use when e-bike cycling.

Product-related injury morbidity among Americans aged 0-19 years, 2001-2020

INTRODUCTION

This study examined changes in product-related injury morbidity among under-20 Americans between 2001 and 2020.

METHOD

Product-related injury morbidity data came from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS). Using age-standardized morbidity rates, the authors performed Joinpoint regression models to identify time periods with significant changes between 2001 and 2020 and quantified the annual magnitude of morbidity changes with annual percent changes (APCs) in rates and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Age-standardized product-related injury morbidity declined consistently among under-20 Americans from 2001 to 2020 (from 7449.3 to 4023.5 per 100,000 persons; APC = -1.5 %, 95 % CI: -2.3 %, -0.7 %), with the most striking morbidity drop in 2019-2020 (-1576.8 per 100,000 persons). Sports and recreation equipment and home were the most common product and location, respectively, for nonfatal pediatric product-related injuries. Large morbidity differences and varying spectrum by product and by occurring location existed across sex and age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Product-related injury morbidity declined significantly among under-20 Americans between 2001 and 2020, but large variations remained across sex and age groups.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

Further research is recommended to understand causal factors contributing to the observed decrease in product-related injury morbidity over the past 20 years and to understand product-related injury morbidity disparities across sex and age groups. Understanding of causal factors could lead to implementation of additional interventions to reduce product-related injury among children and adolescents.

Caregiver accounts of unintentional childhood injury events in rural Uganda

OBJECTIVE

Complex environmental, social, and individual factors contribute to unintentional childhood injury events. Understanding context-specific antecedents and caregiver attributions of childhood injury events can inform the development of locally-targeted interventions to reduce injury risk in rural Uganda.

METHODS

Fifty-six Ugandan caregivers were recruited through primary schools and completed qualitative interviews regarding 86 unintentional childhood injury events. Descriptive statistics summarized injury characteristics, child location and activity, and supervision at time of injury. Qualitative analyses informed by grounded theory identified caregiver attributions of injury causes and caregiver actions to reduce injury risk.

RESULTS

Cuts, falls, and burns were the most common injuries reported. At the time of injury, the most common child activities were farming and playing and the most common child locations were the farm and kitchen. Most children were unsupervised. In cases where supervision was provided, the supervisor was typically distracted. Caregivers most often attributed injuries to child risk-taking but also identified social, environmental, and chance factors. Caregivers most often made efforts to reduce injury risk by teaching children safety rules, but also reported efforts to improve supervision, remove hazards, and implement environmental safeguards.

CONCLUSION

Unintentional childhood injuries have a significant impact on injured children and their families, and caregivers are motivated to reduce child injury risk. Caregivers frequently perceive child decision-making a primary factor in injury events and respond by teaching children safety rules. Rural communities in Uganda and elsewhere may face unique hazards associated with agricultural labor, contributing to a high risk of cuts. Interventions to support caregiver efforts to reduce child injury risk are warranted.

A Virtual Reality App Intervention to Improve Concussion Recognition and Reporting in Athletes Aged 9 to 12 Years: Development and Pilot Testing

BACKGROUND

Existing concussion education programs for preteen athletes typically do not result in sustained improvements in concussion symptom recognition or reporting behaviors. Virtual reality (VR) technology offers an innovative tool that may improve concussion symptom recognition and reporting behaviors among preteen athletes.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to describe the design and development of a VR concussion education app, Make Play Safe (MPS), and present findings on the usability and preliminary efficacy of MPS in improving concussion recognition and reporting intentions among soccer athletes aged 9-12 years.

METHODS

A collaborative user-centered design process was implemented to develop and evaluate MPS, a semi-immersive VR concussion education app designed to address two behavioral outcomes in preteen athletes aged 9-12 years: (1) recognizing concussion and (2) reporting concussion. The development of MPS occurred in three phases: (1) design and development, (2) usability testing, and (3) preliminary efficacy testing. During phase 1, consultations were completed with 6 experts. Additionally, 5 interviews with children who had a history of concussion were conducted to collect feedback about the proof of concept of MPS. During phase 2, a participatory workshop with 11 preteen athletes and a small group discussion with 6 parents and 2 coaches were conducted to explore the usefulness and acceptability of MPS from the perspective of end users. Finally, phase 3 included preliminary efficacy testing with 33 soccer athletes aged 9-12 years to examine changes in concussion-related knowledge, attitudes, and reporting intentions from pre- to postintervention. The data generated from each phase of this study informed the development of the final version of the proof of concept of the VR concussion education app, MPS.

RESULTS

Experts positively rated the features of MPS and noted that the design and content were innovative and age-appropriate. Preteens with a history of concussion indicated the scenarios and symptoms portrayed in the app represented well what they experienced while concussed. Further, they stated that the app would be an engaging way for children to learn about concussions. The 11 healthy children in the workshop perceived the app positively, noting that the scenarios were informative and engaging. Results from preliminary efficacy testing revealed increases in many athletes' knowledge and reporting intentions from pre- to postintervention. Others demonstrated no significant changes or a decrease in knowledge, attitudes, or reporting intentions from pre- to postintervention. Group-level changes in concussion knowledge and intention to report concussions were statistically significant (P<.05), while changes in attitudes toward reporting concussions were not (P=.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest VR technology may be an effective and efficient tool to equip preteen athletes with the requisite knowledge and skills to recognize and report future concussions. Further research is recommended to examine the use of VR as an effective strategy to improve concussion-reporting behaviors in preteen athletes.

Pilot evaluation of a virtual training program for child injury prevention

Unintentional injuries are a leading cause of child death. The present study evaluated the effectiveness of a behavioral injury prevention program for children aged 3-18 years and their caregivers. To accommodate families during the Coronavirus-19 pandemic, training was modified to be delivered virtually. Forty-one children aged 3-18 years and 14 parents/caregivers of children aged 3-5 years attended one of several 4-hour online injury prevention training sessions directed toward residents of Washington state. Training was targeted to three different developmental stages (ages 3-5, 6-12 and 13-18 years). Study outcomes included knowledge about injury prevention strategies, perceived vulnerability for injury, self-efficacy to engage in safety behaviors and behavioral intentions to be safe. Following training, participants showed improved self-efficacy to stay safe, excellent knowledge about the learned material and increased behavioral intention to engage safely. There was minimal change in perceived vulnerability to injury among children; caregivers of young children felt their children were somewhat less vulnerable to injury following the training. Almost all participants said they would recommend the program to others. Results suggest that a virtual behavioral training program delivered remotely is feasible and may be effective to create behavior change and reduce child injury risk. Given its scalability and reach, such programs are recommended for further study, refinement and, if demonstrated effective in larger-scale controlled trials, dissemination to address the leading cause of child mortality in the United States, unintentional injury.

Short-term impacts of all-driver handheld cellphone bans on high-schoolers' texting while driving: quasi-experimental analyses of Illinois and Georgia

Teen drivers are more likely than their older counterparts to engage in distracted driving. Many states prohibit cellphone use for teen drivers, but only prohibit texting for all drivers. Evidence that these laws have been effective is mixed. We hypothesize that recent policy changes in Georgia and Illinois from teen cellphone bans with all-driver texting bans to all-driver handheld phone bans yielded short-term reductions in teen texting while driving. We analyzed Youth Risk Behavior Surveys in Georgia, Illinois, and control states North Carolina and Michigan. We estimated the reduction in texting while driving associated with policy changes via difference-in-differences models. In Illinois, 45.4 % of high school drivers texted while driving in 2013. After a 2014 policy change to an all-driver handheld ban, the percentage decreased in 2015 to 41.8 %, and decreased further in 2017 to 37.7 %. The adjusted DID estimate comparing Illinois to Michigan from 2013 to 2017 was -8.3 % (95 % CI: -15.5 % 1.1 %; p-value = 0.025). In Georgia, the percentage decreased from 37.5 % before the law to 30.8 % after, and the adjusted DID estimate comparing Georgia to North Carolina was -10.8 % (95 % CI: -19.0 %, -2.5 %; p-value = 0.011) than in North Carolina. Results support all-driver handheld phone bans to improve traffic safety for high school drivers.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the safety experience room, an affordable interactive education intervention to prevent unintentional injury among rural preschoolers in China: protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Interactive and experiential learning programs have proven effective to teach children safety and prevent child unintentional injury. However, previously-published programs were designed primarily to address safety concerns of children living in urban, well-resourced areas, and therefore might be less effective or economically infeasible to distribute to children in resource-limited areas, such as those living in rural areas or underdeveloped regions. This proposed study will evaluate the effectiveness of teaching children safety lessons to rural preschoolers in China through the preschool-based Safety Experience Room intervention that was developed based on relevant theories, the lessons of previous intervention research, the characteristics of child injuries in underdeveloped rural areas, and the needs and circumstances of rural families and preschools in China. The study will also evaluate the cost-effectiveness of delivering the program.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A single-blinded, 12-month follow-up, parallel-group cluster randomized controlled trial with a 1:1 allocation ratio will be implemented in two selected counties. In total, at least 2378 rural preschoolers aged 3-6 years old will be recruited from 12 preschools, 6 in Yang County and 6 in Shicheng County. Clusters will be randomized at the preschool level and allocated to the control group (routine school-based education) or the intervention group (routine school-based education plus the Safety Experience Room education). External support strategies will be implemented by local partners to minimize attrition. Data collection will be conducted at baseline and then every 3 months during a 12-month follow-up time period. Intention-to-treat (ITT) data analysis will be used. Generalized estimation equations (GEE) will evaluate the effectiveness of the program and generalized cost-effectiveness analysis (GCEA) will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of it. A per-protocol (PP) sensitivity analysis will assess the robustness of ITT results. Subgroup analyses will be performed to evaluate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the intervention effect, following the same strategies as the primary analyses.

DISCUSSION

The newly-designed Safety Experience Room program is expected to be feasible, effective, and financially beneficial. If these hypotheses prove true, we will take steps to disseminate the program to rural preschools across China.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ( http://www.chictr.org.cn ), CHiCTR2000038025, registered on 8 September 2020.

How does attention deficit hyperactivity disorder affect children's road-crossing? A case-control study

Objective: Children diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may have particularly high pedestrian injury risk given their deficits in attention, inhibition, and concentration. The aims of this study were a) to assess differences in pedestrian skill between children with ADHD and typically-developing children and b) to examine relations between pedestrian skill and attention, inhibition, and executive function among children with ADHD as well as among typically-developing children.Methods: A sample of 50 children with mean age of 9 years participated, 56% of them diagnosed with ADHD. Children completed IVA + Plus, an auditory-visual test evaluating impulse response control and attention and then engaged in a Mobile Virtual Reality (MVR) pedestrian task to assess pedestrian skills. Parents completed the Barkley's Deficits in Executive Functions Scale-Child & Adolescents (BDEFS-CA) to rate children's executive function. Children with ADHD engaged in the experiment off any ADHD medications.Results: Independent samples t-tests indicated significant differences between the two groups in all IVA + Plus and BDEFS_CA scores, supporting the clinical diagnoses of ADHD and the distinction between the two groups. Independent samples t-tests also indicated differences in pedestrian behavior: Children in the ADHD group had significantly higher numbers of unsafe crossings in the MVR environment. Partial correlations within samples stratified by ADHD status indicated that for both groups of children, there were positive correlations between unsafe pedestrian crossings and executive dysfunction. There were no relations between IVA + Plus attentional measures and unsafe pedestrian crossings in either group. A linear regression model predicting unsafe crossings was significant, with children with ADHD more likely to cross in a risky manner after controlling for executive dysfunction and child age.Conclusions: ADHD children exhibited riskier street-crossing behavior in the MVR, confirming an increased risk of pedestrian injury among children with ADHD compared to typically-developing children. Risky crossing among the typically-developing children and ADHD was related to deficits in executive function. Implications are discussed in relation to parenting and professional practice.

Cost-benefit analysis of a distracted pedestrian intervention

OBJECTIVE

Cellphone ubiquity has increased distracted pedestrian behaviour and contributed to growing pedestrian injury rates. A major barrier to large-scale implementation of prevention programmes is unavailable information on potential monetary benefits. We evaluated net economic societal benefits of StreetBit, a programme that reduces distracted pedestrian behaviour by sending warnings from intersection-installed Bluetooth beacons to distracted pedestrians' smartphones.

METHODS

Three data sources were used as follows: (1) fatal, severe, non-severe pedestrian injury rates from Alabama's electronic crash reporting system; (2) expected costs per fatal, severe, non-severe pedestrian injury-including medical cost, value of statistical life, work-loss cost, quality-of-life cost-from CDC and (3) prevalence of distracted walking from extant literature. We computed and compared estimated monetary costs of distracted walking in Alabama and monetary benefits from implementing StreetBit to reduce pedestrian injuries at intersections.

RESULTS

Over 2019-2021, Alabama recorded an annual average of 31 fatal, 83 severe and 115 non-severe pedestrian injuries in intersections. Expected costs/injury were US$11 million, US$339 535 and US$93 877, respectively. The estimated distracted walking prevalence is 25%-40%, and StreetBit demonstrates 19.1% (95% CI 1.6% to 36.0%) reduction. These figures demonstrate potential annual cost savings from using interventions like StreetBit statewide ranging from US$18.1 to US$29 million. Potential costs range from US$3 208 600 (beacons at every-fourth urban intersection) to US$6 359 200 (every other intersection).

CONCLUSIONS

Even under the most parsimonious scenario (25% distracted pedestrians; densest beacon placement), StreetBit yields US$11.8 million estimated net annual benefit to society. Existing data sources can be leveraged to predict net monetary benefits of distracted pedestrian interventions like StreetBit and facilitate large-scale intervention adoption.

Road-Crossing Behavior in Complex Traffic Situations: A Comparison of Children With and Without ADHD

All children are vulnerable to pedestrian injuries, but previous research suggests children diagnosed with ADHD may have elevated risk. Child pedestrian injury risk also increases with increasing traffic volume and speed. The current study examined three hypotheses: (a) Pedestrian behavior of children with ADHD is riskier than that of typically-developing children; (b) Children's pedestrian behavior is riskier with increased traffic complexity; and (c) Pedestrian behavior of children with ADHD is influenced more by complex traffic situations than behavior of typically-developing children. A sample of 38 children ages 8-12 years, 45% diagnosed with ADHD, completed 21 virtual street-crossings, 7 in each of three levels of traffic complexity. Outcome measures included unsafe crossings, ratio of looking at traffic by time, start-delay to enter the road, time to contact with oncoming vehicles, and time waiting to cross. A repeated measure MANOVA and follow-up tests showed that all children had more unsafe crossings, shorter start-delays and shorter TTCs when exposed to increased traffic complexity compared to lighter traffic. Children with ADHD had more unsafe crossings than typically-developing children. Further, compared to typically-developing children, ADHD children had comparatively more unsafe crossings, lower time to contact and longer wait-time in more complex traffic environments. Executive function deficits among children with ADHD likely influence their behavior in complex traffic environments. Implications of the results for policy-making and preventive strategies are discussed.

Injury mortality and morbidity changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly changed society. We aimed to examine the systematic impact of the COVID-19 on injury burden in the United States.

Methods

We extracted mortality and morbidity data from CDC WONDER and WISQARS. We estimated age-standardized injury mortality rate ratio and morbidity rate ratio (MtRR and MbRR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for all injuries, all unintentional injuries, homicide/assault by all methods, suicide/self-harm by all methods, as well as other 11 specific unintentional or intentional injury categories. Injury rate ratios were compared for 2020 vs. 2019 to those of 2019 vs. 2018 to demonstrate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on fatal and nonfatal injury burden. The ratio of MtRRs (RMtRR) and the ratio of MbRRs (RMbRR) with 95% CI between 2020 vs. 2019 and 2019 vs. 2018 were calculated separately.

Results

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an increase in injury mortality (RMtRR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.13) but injury morbidity decreased (RMbRR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.89) when the changes of these rates from 2019 to 2020 were compared to those from 2018 to 2019. Mortality disparities between the two time periods were primarily driven by greater mortality during the COVID-influenced 2020 vs. 2019 from road traffic crashes (particularly motorcyclist mortality), drug poisoning, and homicide by firearm. Similar patterns were not present from 2019 vs. 2018. There were morbidity reductions from road traffic crashes (particularly occupant and pedestrian morbidity from motor vehicle crashes), unintentional falls, and self-harm by suffocation from 2019 to 2020 compared to the previous period. Change patterns in sexes and age groups were generally similar, but exceptions were observed for some injury types.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly changed specific injury burden in the United States. Some discrepancies also existed across sex and age groups, meriting attention of injury researchers and policymakers to tailor injury prevention strategies to particular populations and the environmental contexts citizens face.

Someone to Watch Over You: Using Bluetooth Beacons for Alerting Distracted Pedestrians

In the United States, an estimated 7,005 (crude rate 2.13) pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This statistic is currently increasing annually and research suggests that distraction by smartphones may be a primary reason for the increasing number of pedestrian injuries and deaths. Timely interruptions may alert inattentive pedestrians and prevent fatalities. To this end, we developed StreetBit, a Bluetooth beacon-based system that warns distracted pedestrians with a visual and/or audible interruption when they approach a potentially dangerous traffic intersection while distracted by their smartphones. We posit that by using StreetBit, we can educate distracted pedestrians and elicit behavioral change to reduce or remove smartphone-based distractions when they enter and cross roadways. To demonstrate the feasibility of StreetBit, we conducted a field study with 385 participants. Results show that the system demonstrates adequate feasibility and behavior change in response to the StreetBit program.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ARTCDP: An automated data platform for monitoring emerging patterns concerning road traffic crashes in China

Online media reports provide valuable information for road traffic injury prevention, but technical challenges concerning data acquisition and processing limit analysis and interpretation of such data. Integrating injury epidemiology theory and big data technology, we developed a data platform consisting of four layers (data acquisition, data processing, application and data storage) to automatically collect reports from online Chinese media concerning road traffic crashes every 24 h. We built a text classification model using 20,000 manually annotated news stories based on the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and then used natural language processing algorithms to extract data concerning 27 structured variables from the news sources. The accuracy of the BERT-based text classification model was 0.9271, with information extraction accuracy exceeding 80% for 22 variables. As of November 30, 2021, the data platform collected 244,650 eligible media reports covering all 333 prefecture-level divisions in China. These reports were from 37,073 websites or social media accounts, which were geographically located in all 31 provinces and over 98% of prefecture-level divisions. Data availability varied greatly from 0.9% to 100% across the 27 structured variables. Additionally, the platform identified 645,787 potentially relevant keywords when applying natural language processing techniques to the textual media reports. Platform data were highly correlated with road police data in province-based road traffic crash statistics (crashes, r_s = 0.799; non-fatal injuries, r_s = 0.802; deaths, r_s = 0.775). In particular, the platform offers valuable data (like crashes involving electric vehicles) that are not included in official road traffic crash statistics. The new automated data platform shows great potential for timely detection of emerging characteristics of road traffic crashes. Further research is needed to improve the platform and apply it to real-time monitoring and analysis of road traffic injuries.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Distracted pedestrian behavior: An observational study of risk by situational environments

OBJECTIVE

Pedestrian-related death rates are increasing in the United States, partly due to increased use of distracting smartphones by pedestrians. Previous research documents high frequency of smartphone use while crossing streets near college campuses and in downtown business districts, but little is known about distracted pedestrian behavior in other urban environments. The current study used observational methods to examine and compare distracted pedestrian behavior in four urban areas - near an urban college campus, in a downtown commercial business district, near middle and high schools, and in entertainment districts - as well as examining whether the occurrence of distraction was associated with unsafe crossing behaviors.

METHODS

We observed 112 intersections in 46 downtown, 30 school, 25 entertainment district, and 11 college campus-area intersections. Coders recorded distraction, crossing safety, pedestrian demographics, and traffic volume. Chi-square tests compared pedestrian characteristics by intersection type. Log binomial regressions estimated risk ratios (RRs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between pedestrians walking alone and traffic volume with distracted crossing behavior, adjusting for age and gender. Similar models examined risk of unsafe crossing behavior by distraction behavior. All models were stratified by intersection type.

RESULTS

Distraction incidence was highest in campus locations (52.9%) and lowest in entertainment districts (16.2%). Walking alone was associated with a 45% higher risk of distraction (RR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62), although the increased association was limited to entertainment locations (RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.25-2.08) and was significantly decreased in all other locations. Higher traffic volume was associated with lower risk of distraction in downtown locations (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.85) but higher distraction risk in entertainment locations (RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.27-2.31). Associations between distraction and unsafe crossing behaviors were minimal.

CONCLUSION

Distracted pedestrian behavior occurs at different rates and in different circumstances, depending on the setting. These results offer valuable data to inform intervention programs that target appropriate populations in appropriate locations.

Conflicts between bus drivers and passengers in Changsha, China

Bus safety represents an important topic for injury prevention. When drivers experience conflict with their passengers, it likely distracts them from the driving task, both physically and mentally, and jeopardizes the safety of all passengers. However, detailed information concerning the frequency and type of conflicts between bus drivers and passengers is unavailable. We conducted a driver-reported cross-sectional survey to investigate the characteristics of driver-passenger conflict in the past month. The survey was completed in Changsha city, China in August 2019. In total, 779 bus drivers were surveyed. Of 732 drivers who completed the questionnaire, 635 (86.7%; 95% confidence interval: 84.3-89.1%) drivers reported experiencing at least one conflict with passengers in the past month. After adjusting for other demographic variables, drivers who were male, younger, less educated, less experienced as a bus driver, and with a comparatively high self-reported work intensity were more likely to report experiencing conflicts. Of the reported conflicts, verbal quarrels and abuses were most common, followed by "passengers attacked driver with physical objects like sticks or knives" and "passengers spat on or threw objects toward the driver". Most drivers reported that they had experienced only conflicts causing no physical injury or financial loss in the past month, but a small portion experienced conflicts causing injuries to themselves. The most frequent reasons for driver-passenger conflicts were "passenger refused to pay fare", "passenger requested to get off the bus at a location that was not a bus stop", and "passenger was drunk or deliriously attacked the driver". Bus drivers responded to some of the passengers' verbal or physical attacks, but not all. Some preventive measures were adopted frequently by bus companies (e.g., bus alarms, protective shields for drivers) but others were not. Least often adopted were efforts to offer safety training for drivers (46.6%) and to offer psychological counseling services for drivers (39.1%). We conclude that bus driver-passenger conflicts are common in Changsha city, China. The conflicts impose a substantial threat to the safety of both drivers and passengers. We recommend multiple preventive actions to reduce driver-passenger conflicts and improve bus safety.

Effectiveness of a helmet promotion campaign, China

Objective

To evaluate the effectiveness of a 2020 nationwide helmet promotion campaign, in terms of helmet wearing and correct helmet wearing, aimed at electric bike riders and motorcyclists in China.

Methods

We obtained 192 hours of film of traffic before (2019) and after (2021) implementation of the campaign at eight road intersections in Changsha, recording cyclist (traditional and electric) and motorcyclist helmet-wearing behaviour during both weekdays and the weekend, and peak and off-peak traffic. We extracted data on rider characteristics and helmet-wearing behaviour. We applied a logistic regression to obtain estimates of helmet wearing and correct helmet wearing, and calculated odds ratios adjusted for rider variables.

Findings

We filmed 11 525 cyclists and motorcyclists, 5256 (45.6%) before and 6269 (54.4%) after the campaign. We estimated a substantial increase in the overall percentage of helmet wearing from 8.8% (95% confidence interval, CI: 8.0–9.6) to 62.0% (95% CI: 60.8–63.2). After controlling for covariates, we noted that helmet wearing increased in all groups. However, we observed a decrease in the overall percentage of correct helmet wearing from 91.9% (95% CI: 89.4–94.3) to 83.5% (95% CI: 82.3–84.7). Post-campaign, we estimated the highest percentage of helmet wearing for delivery riders (88.8%) and lowest for traditional cyclists (3.8%); we estimated the lowest percentage of correct helmet wearing for three-wheeled motorcyclists (58.8%).

Conclusion

To increase helmet wearing and correct helmet wearing, we recommend amending the campaign to include traditional cyclists as well as education and legislation on the correct fastening of helmet chinstraps.

Coding quality of deaths and its impact on elderly unintentional fall mortality data from 1990 to 2019: a retrospective analysis of the WHO Mortality Database

Background

Several studies have assessed the reporting quality of all-cause mortality data from the WHO Mortality Database, but little is known about coding quality and its impact on elderly unintentional fall mortality data worldwide. We aimed to assess the coding quality of deaths and its impact on elderly unintentional fall mortality.

Methods

Using data from the WHO Mortality Database, 1990–2019, we calculated the number of countries/territories that had mortality data in the database, and the proportion of deaths with five types of problematic codes based on the 10th International Classification of Disease (unspecified deaths, injury deaths with undetermined intent, unspecified unintentional injury, unintentional falls with unspecified mechanism, unintentional falls with unknown occurrence place). We estimated age-adjusted unintentional fall mortality before and after correcting problematic codes.

Results

Only 64% (124/194) of WHO member states had at least 1 year of mortality data in the database during 1990–2019, and data unavailability was more common for underdeveloped countries/territories than for developed countries/territories. Coding quality was poor for many countries/territories. Among the study years when countries/territories possessed mortality data, 80, 53, 51, and 63% had a proportion of unintentional fall deaths with unspecified mechanism over 50% in low-income, lower middle-income, upper middle-income, and high-income countries/territories, respectively; comparable proportions for unintentional fall deaths with unknown occurrence place were 100, 42, 71, and 62%. Among the 94 countries/territories having mortality data, problematic codes caused a relative mortality difference ≥ 50% in 59 countries/territories (63%). After correcting problematic codes, 5 of 55 countries/territories with data witnessed a reverse in mortality changes between 2005 and 2015. Among the 82 countries/territories with mortality data for 5 or more years, 18 countries/territories (22%) experienced a directional reverse in linear regression coefficient.

Conclusions

The availability and coding quality of global data related to elderly unintentional fall mortality was poor between 1990 and 2019. When data are available, varying coding quality across countries/territories and over time have a substantial impact on mortality estimates and mortality comparisons. Global agencies plus each individual government should be aware of the importance of collecting and sharing high-quality mortality data, and take action to improve data quality for inclusion in the WHO Mortality Database.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-021-02744-3.

COVID-19-Related Rumor Content, Transmission, and Clarification Strategies in China: Descriptive Study

Background

Given the permeation of social media throughout society, rumors spread faster than ever before, which significantly complicates government responses to public health emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective

We aimed to examine the characteristics and propagation of rumors during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and evaluated the effectiveness of health authorities’ release of correction announcements.

Methods

We retrieved rumors widely circulating on social media in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and assessed the effectiveness of official government clarifications and popular science articles refuting those rumors.

Results

We show that the number of rumors related to the COVID-19 pandemic fluctuated widely in China between December 1, 2019 and April 15, 2020. Rumors mainly occurred in 3 provinces: Hubei, Zhejiang, and Guangxi. Personal social media accounts constituted the major source of media reports of the 4 most widely distributed rumors (the novel coronavirus can be prevented with “Shuanghuanglian”: 7648/10,664, 71.7%; the novel coronavirus is the SARS coronavirus: 14,696/15,902, 92.4%; medical supplies intended for assisting Hubei were detained by the local government: 3911/3943, 99.2%; asymptomatically infected persons were regarded as diagnosed COVID-19 patients with symptoms in official counts: 322/323, 99.7%). The number of rumors circulating was positively associated with the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic (ρ=0.88, 95% CI 0.81-0.93). The release of correction articles was associated with a substantial decrease in the proportion of rumor reports compared to accurate reports. The proportions of negative sentiments appearing among comments by citizens in response to media articles disseminating rumors and disseminating correct information differ insignificantly (both correct reports: χ₁²=0.315, P=.58; both rumors: χ₁²=0.025, P=.88; first rumor and last correct report: χ₁²=1.287, P=.26; first correct report and last rumor: χ₁²=0.033, P=.86).

Conclusions

Our results highlight the importance and urgency of monitoring and correcting false or misleading reports on websites and personal social media accounts. The circulation of rumors can influence public health, and government bodies should establish guidelines to monitor and mitigate the negative impact of such rumors.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reducing distracted pedestrian behavior using Bluetooth beacon technology: A crossover trial

BACKGROUND

The number of fatal pedestrian injuries in the United States has steadily increased over the past decade. Multiple factors likely contribute to this trend, but the growth of pedestrians distracted by mobile devices is widely hypothesized to play a major role. Existing strategies to reduce distracted pedestrian behavior are few and mostly ineffective. The present study evaluated StreetBit, a mostly-passive primary prevention program to reduce distracted pedestrian behavior by alerting distracted pedestrians directly on their smartphone when they approach an intersection, reminding them to attend to traffic as they crossed.

METHODS

385 individuals who regularly crossed a target street corner at an urban university downloaded StreetBit on their phones and participated in a crossover design study whereby the app was inactive for 3 weeks (baseline behavior phase), actively provided alerts for 3 weeks (intervention phase), and then was inactive again for 4 weeks (post-intervention phase). User distraction while crossing the intersection was collected electronically for a total of 34,923 street-crossing events throughout the 10-week study.

RESULTS

In crude (unadjusted) models, participant distraction was similar across all phases of the research; this result was maintained after adjusting for potential covariates as well as after conducting a sensitivity analysis limited to data from only week 3 of each study intervention phase. In a model stratified by phone/warning type and baseline distraction rates, Android phone users who received a warning that blocked the full screen and had a high baseline distraction rate (≥75% distracted crossings) had a 64% decreased odds of distraction during the alert phase (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.25-0.51) and a 52% decreased odds of distraction during the post-intervention phase (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.25-0.94). Users reported positive impressions about the StreetBit app in a post-intervention survey.

DISCUSSION

StreetBit, an innovative app designed to prevent distracted pedestrian behavior through a mostly-passive primary prevention strategy relying on intrusive reminders, proved effective among smartphone users who received a warning blocking the full screen and who were frequently distracted at baseline, but not among other users. The results appear to reflect the confluence of two influencing factors. First, due to software development limitations, visually-distracted Android users received a highly intrusive app warning that blocked their smartphone screen whereas iOS users received a less intrusive banner notification blocking a small upper portion of the screen. Second, most users were curious to see if the app was functioning properly, creating artificially-inflated estimates of distraction as users purposefully watched their phones when crossing. Thus, our results indicate promise for StreetBit as an effective intervention and warrant continued software development and empirical testing.

Global, regional, and national burden of bone fractures in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Bone fractures are a global public health issue; however, to date, no comprehensive study of their incidence and burden has been done. We aimed to measure the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of fractures from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Using the framework of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we compared numbers and age-standardised rates of global incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of fractures across the 21 GBD regions and 204 countries and territories, by age, sex, and year, from 1990 to 2019. We report estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, there were 178 million (95% UI 162-196) new fractures (an increase of 33·4% [30·1-37·0] since 1990), 455 million (428-484) prevalent cases of acute or long-term symptoms of a fracture (an increase of 70·1% [67·5-72·5] since 1990), and 25·8 million (17·8-35·8) YLDs (an increase of 65·3% [62·4-68·0] since 1990). The age-standardised rates of fractures in 2019 were 2296·2 incident cases (2091·1-2529·5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 9·6% [8·1-11·1] since 1990), 5614·3 prevalent cases (5286·1-5977·5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 6·7% [5·7-7·6] since 1990), and 319·0 YLDs (220·1-442·5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 8·4% [7·2-9·5] since 1990). Lower leg fractures of the patella, tibia or fibula, or ankle were the most common and burdensome fracture in 2019, with an age-standardised incidence rate of 419·9 cases (345·8-512·0) per 100 000 population and an age-standardised rate of YLDs of 190·4 (125·0-276·9) per 100 000 population. In 2019, age-specific rates of fracture incidence were highest in the oldest age groups, with, for instance, 15 381·5 incident cases (11 245·3-20 651·9) per 100 000 population in those aged 95 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

The global age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for fractures decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019, but the absolute counts increased substantially. Older people have a particularly high risk of fractures, and more widespread injury-prevention efforts and access to screening and treatment of osteoporosis for older individuals should help to reduce the overall burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Adolescent Experiences with Self-Asphyxial Behaviors and Problematic Drinking in Emerging Adulthood

Self-asphyxial behavior to achieve a euphoric high (The Choking Game; TCG), occurs most often during early adolescence. Participants in TCG often engage in other risky behaviors. This study investigated the relationship between prior experience with TCG and problematic drinking behaviors in emerging adulthood. Emerging adults, 18 to 25 years old (N = 1248), 56% female, and 78% Caucasian completed an online survey regarding knowledge of and prior engagement in TCG and current drinking behaviors. Participants who personally engaged in TCG during childhood/adolescence or were familiar with TCG reported significantly more problematic drinking behaviors during emerging adulthood. Those present when others engaged in TCG but resisted participation themselves reported significantly less current problematic drinking behaviors than those who participated, but significantly more current problematic drinking behaviors than those never present. Emerging adults with increased social familiarity with TCG during adolescence endorsed greater problematic drinking behaviors. Results suggest resistance skills may generalize across time/activities.

The influence of music tempo on mental load and hazard perception of novice drivers

INTRODUCTION

Many novice drivers listen to music while driving, but the effect of music-listening on novice driver's safety is uncertain. We explored how music tempo affects two key aspects of novice drivers' cognitive functioning, mental load and hazard perception.

METHOD

In a within-subjects experimental design study, 37 novice drivers completed a hazard perception test in simulated traffic situations under four randomly-ordered conditions: while listening to fast, medium, slow tempo music, and without listening to any music. Mental load was recorded both subjectively and through psychophysiological measures during all conditions.

RESULTS

When listening to fast-tempo music, novice drivers' subjective load value, heart rate and respiratory rate were significantly higher than that during the other two music tempo conditions and the no music condition. Skin temperature was significantly higher during fast-tempo music than during the slow music tempo and no music conditions. When listening to slow-tempo music, drivers' R-R interval (variability in heart rate, with longer intervals reflecting lower mental load) was significantly longer than while listening to fast and mid-tempo music, and their hazard perception scores were significantly higher than the other three conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Listening to fast tempo music was associated with increased mental load and reduced hazard perception ability in traffic among novice drivers. Listening to slow tempo music did not increase novice drivers' mental load and offered some benefit to their hazard perception.