Years of life lost during the Covid-19 pandemic in Sweden considering variation in life expectancy by level of geriatric care

Direct and indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy and person-years of life lost with and without disability: A systematic analysis for 18 European countries, 2020-2022

BACKGROUND

The direct and indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy (LE) and years of life lost with and without disability remain unclear. Accounting for pre-pandemic trends in morbidity and mortality, we assessed these impacts in 18 European countries, for the years 2020-2022.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used multi-state Markov modeling based on several data sources to track transitions of the population aged 35 or older between eight health states from disease-free, combinations of cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, dementia, and disability, through to death. We quantified separately numbers and rates of deaths attributable to COVID-19 from those related to mortality from other causes during 2020-2022, and estimated the proportion of loss of life expectancy and years of life with and without disability that could have been avoided if the pandemic had not occurred. Estimates were disaggregated by COVID-19 versus non-COVID causes of deaths, calendar year, age, sex, disability status, and country. We generated the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using Monte Carlo simulations with 500 iterations. Among the 289 million adult population in the 18 countries, person-years of life lost (PYLL) in millions were 4.7 (95% UI 3.4-6.0) in 2020, 7.1 (95% UI 6.6-7.9) in 2021, and 5.0 (95% UI 4.1-6.2) in 2022, totaling 16.8 (95% UI 12.0-21.8) million. PYLL per capita varied considerably between the 18 countries ranging between 20 and 109 per 1,000 population. About 60% of the total PYLL occurred among persons aged over 80, and 30% in those aged 65-80. If the pandemic were avoided, over half (9.8 million (95% UI 4.7-15.1)) of the 16.8 million PYLL were estimated to have been lived without disability. Of the total PYLL, 11.6-13.2 million were due to registered COVID-19 deaths and 3.6-5.3 million due to non-COVID mortality. Despite a decrease in PYLL attributable to COVID-19 after 2021, PYLL associated with other causes of death continued to increase from 2020 to 2022 in most countries. Lower income countries had higher PYLL per capita as well as a greater proportion of disability-free PYLL during 2020-2022. Similar patterns were observed for life expectancy. In 2021, LE at age 35 (LE-35) declined by up to 2.8 (95% UI 2.3-3.3) years, with over two-thirds being disability-free. With the exception of Sweden, LE-35 in the studied countries did not recover to 2019 levels by 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

The considerable loss of life without disability and the rise in premature mortality not directly linked to COVID-19 deaths during 2020-2022 suggest a potential broader, longer-term and partially indirect impact of the pandemic, possibly resulting from disruptions in healthcare delivery and services for non-COVID conditions and unintended consequences of COVID-19 containment measures. These findings highlight a need for better pandemic preparedness in Europe, ideally, as part of a more comprehensive global public health agenda.

Cause-specific excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2022: a study using nationwide population data

While there is substantial evidence on excess mortality in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, no study has conducted a cause-specific analysis of excess mortality for the whole period 2020-2022 across multiple countries. We examined cause-specific excess mortality during 2020-2022 in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden-four countries with similar demographics and welfare provisions, which implemented different pandemic response policies. To this end, we utilized nationwide register-based information on annual cause-specific deaths stratified by age and sex, and applied linear regression models to predict mortality in 2020-2022 based on the reference period 2010-2019. Excess deaths were obtained by contrasting actual and expected deaths. Additional analyses employed standardization to a common population, as well as population adjustments to account for previous deaths. Our results showed that, besides deaths due to COVID-19 (a total of 32,491 during 2020-2022), all countries experienced excess deaths due to cardiovascular diseases (in total 11,610 excess deaths), and under-mortality due to respiratory diseases other than COVID-19 (in total 9878) and dementia (in total 8721). The excess mortality due to cardiovascular diseases was particularly pronounced in Finland and Norway in 2022, and the under-mortality due to dementia was particularly pronounced in Sweden in 2021-2022. In conclusion, while COVID-19 deaths emerge as the most apparent consequence of the pandemic, our findings suggest that mortality has also been influenced by substitutions between different causes of death and over time, as well as indirect consequences of COVID-19 infection and pandemic responses-albeit to different extents in the different countries.

Quantifying income inequality in years of life lost to COVID-19: a prediction model approach using Dutch administrative data

BACKGROUND

Low socioeconomic status and underlying health increase the risk of fatal outcomes from COVID-19, resulting in more years of life lost (YLL) among the poor. However, using standard life expectancy overestimates YLL to COVID-19. We aimed to quantify YLL associated with COVID-19 deaths by sex and income quartile, while accounting for the impact of individual-level pre-existing health on remaining life expectancy for all Dutch adults aged 50+.

METHODS

Extensive administrative data were used to model probability of dying within the year for the entire 50+ population in 2019, considering age, sex, disposable income and health care use (n = 6 885 958). The model is used to predict mortality probabilities for those who died of COVID-19 (had they not died) in 2020. Combining these probabilities in life tables, we estimated YLL by sex and income quartile. The estimates are compared with YLL based on standard life expectancy and income-stratified life expectancy.

RESULTS

Using standard life expectancy results in 167 315 YLL (8.4 YLL per death) which is comparable to estimates using income-stratified life tables (167 916 YLL with 8.2 YLL per death). Considering pre-existing health and income, YLL decreased to 100 743, with 40% of years lost in the poorest income quartile (5.0 YLL per death). Despite individuals in the poorest quartile dying at younger ages, there were minimal differences in average YLL per COVID-19 death compared with the richest quartile.

CONCLUSIONS

Accounting for prior health significantly affects estimates of YLL due to COVID-19. However, inequality in YLL at the population level is primarily driven by higher COVID-19 deaths among the poor. To reduce income inequality in the health burden of future pandemics, policies should focus on limiting structural differences in underlying health and exposure of lower income groups.

Investigating mortality trends in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic: life expectancy changes within provinces and vaccination campaign impact up to December 2022

OBJECTIVES

We used publicly available population data from 1 January 2019 up to 31 December 2022, to investigate mortality trends in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic, evaluating changes in life expectancy (LE) at birth within provinces and the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations.

STUDY DESIGN

Aggregate data analysis.

METHODS

Annual period life tables were used to estimate sex-specific LEs within provinces from 2019 to 2022. We used Arriaga decomposition to analyze the contribution of age groups (<60 years and ≥60 years) to annual LE changes. We implemented a Quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the number of averted deaths by the achieved COVID-19 vaccination rates from January 2021 up to December 2022, simulating a counterfactual scenario where vaccine doses were not administered.

RESULTS

The results revealed geographical heterogeneity in annual LE changes across Italian provinces during the pandemic. By the end of 2022, LE was below the prepandemic levels in 88% of provinces for females and in 76% for males. In addition, we estimated that the achieved vaccination rates averted 460,831 deaths (95% confidence interval: 250,976-707,920), corresponding to a 25% reduction in expected all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the study highlighted the significant role of COVID-19 vaccinations in averting a considerable number of deaths and improving LE. However, by the end of 2022, LE had not fully recovered to prepandemic levels in many provinces. This could be attributed to concurrent factors, including enduring COVID-19 pandemic effects, intense summer heat waves and early onset of seasonal flu. Further research and continuous monitoring are essential to fully comprehend long-term mortality trends and optimize public health strategies.

Age and sex differences in cause-specific excess mortality and years of life lost associated with COVID-19 infection in the Swedish population

BACKGROUND

Estimating excess mortality and years of life lost (YLL) attributed to coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection provides a comprehensive picture of the mortality burden on society. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on age- and sex-specific excess mortality and YLL in Sweden during the first 17 months of the pandemic.

METHODS

In this population-based observational study, we calculated age- and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality and excess YLL during 2020 and the first 5 months of 2021 and cause-specific death [deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, other causes and deaths excluding COVID-19] in 2020 compared with an average baseline for 2017-19 in the whole Swedish population.

RESULTS

COVID-19 deaths contributed 9.9% of total deaths (98 441 deaths, 960 305 YLL) in 2020, accounting for 75 151 YLL (7.7 YLL/death). There were 2672 (5.7%) and 1408 (3.0%) excess deaths, and 19 141 (3.8%) and 3596 (0.8%) excess YLL in men and women, respectively. Men aged 65-110 years and women aged 75-110 years were the greatest contributors. Fewer deaths and YLL from CVD, cancer and other causes were observed in 2020 compared with the baseline adjusted to the population size in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the baseline, excess mortality and YLL from all causes were experienced in Sweden during 2020, with a higher excess observed in men than in women, indicating that more men died at a younger age while more women died at older ages than expected. A notable reduction in deaths and YLL due to CVD suggests a displacement effect from CVD to COVID-19.

The contribution of population age-sex structure to the excess mortality estimates of 2020-2021 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden

The Nordic countries offer an ideal case study of the COVID-19 pandemic due to their comparability, high data quality, and variable mitigations. We investigated the age- and sex-specific mortality patterns during 2020-2021 for the five Nordic countries and analysed the total age- and sex-adjusted excess deaths, ratios of actual to expected death rates, and age-standardized excess death estimates. We assessed excess deaths using several time periods and sensitivity tests, and 42 sex and age groups. Declining pre-pandemic age-specific death rates reflected improving health demographics. These affect the expected death estimates and should be accounted for in excess mortality models. Denmark had the highest death rates both before and during the pandemic, whereas in 2020 Sweden had the largest mortality increase. The age-standardized mortality of Denmark, Iceland and Norway was lowest in 2020. 2021 was one of the lowest mortality years for all Nordic countries. The total excess deaths in 2020-2021 were dominated by 70-89-year-olds, were not identified in children, and were more pronounced among men than women. Sweden had more excess deaths in 2020 than in 2021, whereas Finland, Norway and Denmark had the opposite. Our study provides new details on Nordic sex- and age-specific mortality during the first two years of the pandemic and shows that several metrics are important to enable a full understanding and comparison of the pandemic mortality.