Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Detection of phosphorus species in water: technology and strategies

This review highlights recent advances in methods of detection of total phosphorus in water, including photoelectric strategies, spectroscopy techniques, and modeling algorithms.

Statistical models for evaluating suspected artefacts in long-term environmental monitoring data

Long-term water quality monitoring is of high value for environmental management as well as for research. Artificial level shifts in time series due to method improvements, flaws in laboratory practices or changes in laboratory are a common limitation for analysis, which, however, are often ignored. Statistical estimation of such artefacts is complicated by the simultaneous existence of trends, seasonal variation and effects of other influencing factors, such as weather conditions. Here, we investigate the performance of generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) to simultaneously identify one or more artefacts associated with artificial level shifts, longitudinal effects related to temporal trends and seasonal variation, as well as to model the serial correlation structure of the data. In the same model, it is possible to estimate separate residual variances for different periods so as to identify if artefacts not only influence the mean level but also the dispersion of a series. Even with an appropriate statistical methodology, it is difficult to quantify artificial level shifts and make appropriate adjustments to the time series. The underlying temporal structure of the series is especially important. As long as there is no prominent underlying trend in the series, the shift estimates are rather stable and show less variation. If an artificial shift occurs during a slower downward or upward tendency, it is difficult to separate these two effects and shift estimates can be both biased and have large variation. In the case of a change in method or laboratory, we show that conducting the analyses with both methods in parallel strongly improves estimates of artefact effects on the time series, even if certain problems remain. Due to the difficulties of estimating artificial level shifts, posterior adjustment is problematic and can lead to time series that no longer can be used for trend analysis or other analysis based on the longitudinal structure of the series. Before carrying out a change in analytic method or laboratory, it should be considered if this is absolutely necessary. If changes cannot be avoided, the analysis of the two methods considered, or the two laboratories contracted, should be run in parallel for a considerable period of time so as to enable a good assessment of changes introduced to the data series.

Using recent high-frequency surveys to reconstitute 35 years of organic carbon variations in a eutrophic lowland river

Concentrations of dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC), total suspended solids (TSS), were measured daily, and phytoplankton pigments (chlorophyll-a and pheopigments) were measured every 3 days at three strategic stations along the eutrophic Loire River between November 2011 and November 2013 marked by a high annual and seasonal variability in hydrological regimes. This unique high-frequency dataset allowed to determine the POC origin (autochthonous or allochthonous). Some strong relationships were evidenced between POC, total pigments and TSS and were tested on a long-term database with a lower frequency (monthly data) to reconstitute unmeasured algal and detrital POC concentrations and estimate annual total organic carbon (TOC) fluxes from 1980 onwards. The results were subjected to only ≈25 % uncertainty and showed that the annual TOC fluxes at the outlet of the Loire River decreased from 520 10(3) tC year(-1) (i.e. 4.7 t km(-2) year(-1)) in the early 1990s to 150 10(3) tC year(-1) (i.e. 1.4 t km(-2) year(-1)) in 2012. Although DOC always dominates, the autochthonous POC represented 35 % of the TOC load at the basin outlet by the end of the 1980s and declined to finally represent 15 % only of the TOC. The control of phosphorus direct inputs and the invasion by Corbicula clams spp. which both occurred since the early 1990s probably highly reduced the development of phytoplankton. Consequently, the autochthonous POC contribution declined and TSS concentrations in summertime significantly decreased as well as a result of both less phytoplankton and less calcite precipitation. At the present time, at least 75 % of the POC has allochthonous origins in the upper Middle Loire but downstream, autochthonous POC dominates during summer phytoplanktonic blooms when total pigments concentrations reach up to 70 μg L(-1) (equivalent to 75 % of the total POC).