Temporal trend evaluation in monitoring programs with high spatial resolution and low temporal resolution using geographically weighted regression models

Data from monitoring programs with high spatial resolution but low temporal resolution are often overlooked when assessing temporal trends, as the data structure does not permit the use of established trend analysis methods. However, the data include uniquely detailed information about geographically differentiated temporal trends driven by large-scale influences, such as climate or airborne deposition. In this study, we used geographically weighted regression models, extended with a temporal component, to evaluate linear and nonlinear trends in environmental monitoring data. To improve the results, we tested approaches for station-wise pre-processing of data and for validation of the resulting models. To illustrate the method, we used data on changes in total organic carbon (TOC) obtained in a monitoring program of around 4800 Swedish lakes observed once every 6 years between 2008 and 2021. On applying the methods developed here, we identified nonlinear changes in TOC from consistent negative trends over most of Sweden around 2010 to positive trends during later years in parts of the country.

Temporal trend evaluation in monitoring programs with high spatial resolution and low temporal resolution using geographically weighted regression models

Data from monitoring programs with high spatial resolution but low temporal resolution are often overlooked when assessing temporal trends, as the data structure does not permit the use of established trend analysis methods. However, the data include uniquely detailed information about geographically differentiated temporal trends driven by large-scale influences, such as climate or airborne deposition. In this study, we used geographically weighted regression models, extended with a temporal component, to evaluate linear and nonlinear trends in environmental monitoring data. To improve the results, we tested approaches for station-wise pre-processing of data and for validation of the resulting models. To illustrate the method, we used data on changes in total organic carbon (TOC) obtained in a monitoring program of around 4800 Swedish lakes observed once every 6 years between 2008 and 2021. On applying the methods developed here, we identified nonlinear changes in TOC from consistent negative trends over most of Sweden around 2010 to positive trends during later years in parts of the country.

Dairy herd health management activities in relation to training of veterinarians in motivational interviewing

Communication has been identified as one constraint for cattle veterinarians to act as proactive health consultants. Motivational Interviewing (MI), an evidence-based client-centered communication methodology, may therefore be a useful tool in veterinary herd health management (VHHM). The aim of this exploratory study was to investigate associations between training in MI and different measures of performance in VHHM. MI skills of 36 Swedish cattle veterinarians randomly assigned to two groups - MI veterinarians (n = 18) who had received six-months training in MI and control veterinarians (n = 18) who were not trained - were assessed using the MI Treatment Integrity coding system. Skills were categorized as untrained, trained_poor, trained_near moderate and trained_moderate. Veterinarians each visited two to six cattle farms for VHHM consultations and revisited the same farms three to six months later to document implementation of recommendations. A gamma model and logistic or ordered logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations between MI training and performance measured as: a) proportion of consultations resulting in written herd health plans, b) proportion of recommended measures fully or partially implemented, c) Likert scores of different estimates of client satisfaction and d) total time during 6 months allocated to VHHM visits on cattle farms. We found no evidence of any significant effects of MI training on the eight performance variables analyzed. However, a pattern of numerically higher values (better performance) in trained veterinarians with poor or moderate MI skills than in untrained veterinarians was observed in most variables. Clients were highly satisfied with veterinarians' attitude, competence and time efficiency. Farms implemented a median of 66.7% (interquartile range: 50-100) of the measures partially or fully. Veterinarians allocated little time to VHHM visits (median: 2.2; interquartile range: 0.65-4.1 h per week of full-time work within cattle). Veterinarians with moderate skills spent 2.14 times more time on VHHM visits than untrained veterinarians, but the confidence interval was wide (0.88-5.21). The pattern of numerically higher values in trained veterinarians supported findings from other studies in the same project indicating a positive effect of MI training on VHHM. Our observations suggest a considerable potential to increase veterinarians' engagement in VHHM.

Brownification on hold: What traditional analyses miss in extended surface water records

Widespread increases in organic matter (OM) content of surface waters, as measured by color and organic carbon (OC), are a major issue for aquatic ecosystems. Long-term monitoring programs revealed the issue of "brownification", with climate change, land cover changes and recovery from acidification all suspected to be major drivers or contributing factors. While many studies have focused on the impact and drivers, fewer have followed up on whether brownification is continuing. As time-series of OM data lengthen, conventional data-analysis approaches miss important information on when changes occur. To better identify temporal OM patterns during three decades (1990-2020) of systematic monitoring, we used generalized additive models to analyze 164 time-series from watercourses located across Sweden. Increases in OC that were widespread during 1990-2010 ceased a decade ago, and most color increases ceased 20 years ago. These findings highlight the need to reassess the understanding of brownification's spatial and temporal extent, as well as the tools used to analyze lengthening time series.

Serological and molecular study of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus in cattle from selected districts in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is a severe tick-borne viral hemorrhagic disease caused by Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) that poses serious public health challenges in many parts of Africa, Europe and Asia.

METHODS

We examined 500 cattle sera samples from five districts for CCHFV antibodies using in-house and commercially available (IDVet) ELISA, Immunofluorescent assay (IFA) and Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).

RESULTS

500 cattle (73.8 % females) were analyzed; CCHFV seropositivity was 12.6 % (n = 63) and 75.0 % (n = 375) with the in-house and IDVet ELISAs, respectively. Seropositivity was associated with geographical location, increasing age, being female, and having a higher tick burden. Twenty four out of the 37 (64.8 %) were seropositive for CCHFV using IFA and all were negative for virus on RT-PCR. The IFA results were more comparable to IDVet (κ_coefficient = 0.88, p = <0.01) than to in-house (κ_coefficient = 0.32, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirmed the presence and high prevalence of anti-CCHF antibodies in cattle based on three methods from all the five study districts, confirming presence and exposure of CCHFV. Given the zoonotic potential for CCHFV, we recommend a multidisciplinary public health surveillance and epidemiology of CCHFV in both animals and humans throughout the country.

Metabolomics analysis reveals altered metabolites in lean compared with obese adolescents and additional metabolic shifts associated with hyperinsulinaemia and insulin resistance in obese adolescents: a cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Hyperinsulinaemia and insulin resistance (IR) are strongly associated with obesity and are forerunners of type 2 diabetes. Little is known about metabolic alterations separately associated with obesity, hyperinsulinaemia/IR and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in adolescents.

OBJECTIVES

To identify metabolic alterations associated with obesity, hyperinsulinaemia/IR and hyperinsulinaemia/IR combined with IGT in obese adolescents.

METHODS

81 adolescents were stratified into four groups based on body mass index (lean vs. obese), insulin responses (normal insulin (NI) vs. high insulin (HI)) and glucose responses (normal glucose tolerance (NGT) vs. IGT) after an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). The groups comprised: (1) healthy lean with NI and NGT, (2) obese with NI and NGT, (3) obese with HI and NGT, and (4) obese with HI and IGT. Targeted nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabolomics analysis was performed on fasting and seven post-OGTT plasma samples, followed by univariate and multivariate statistical analyses.

RESULTS

Two groups of metabolites were identified: (1) Metabolites associated with insulin response level: adolescents with HI (groups 3-4) had higher concentrations of branched-chain amino acids and tyrosine, and lower concentrations of serine, glycine, myo-inositol and dimethylsulfone, than adolescents with NI (groups 1-2). (2) Metabolites associated with obesity status: obese adolescents (groups 2-4) had higher concentrations of acetylcarnitine, alanine, pyruvate and glutamate, and lower concentrations of acetate, than lean adolescents (group 1).

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity is associated with shifts in fat and energy metabolism. Hyperinsulinaemia/IR in obese adolescents is also associated with increased branched-chain and aromatic amino acids.

An observational study of the dry period length and its relation to milk yield, health, and fertility in two dairy cow breeds

This study evaluated associations between dry period length (DPL) in dairy cows and energy-corrected milk (ECM) production, health, and fertility, using a dataset involving 78 577 lactations in cows of two breeds, Swedish Red (SR) and Swedish Holstein (SH). Herds with at least 20 cows and at least 20 % purebred SR and at least 20 % SH during the year 2015/2016 were included in the dataset. Cows were divided into parity groups 2 and 3 or older and DPL was classified into six 10-day groups (30-39 to 80-89 d). Associations between DPL and the outcome variables were assessed with linear and generalized linear mixed models. Production of ECM at the first three test milkings and the 305-d lactation was highest in the 50-59 d and 60-69 d DPL groups, and lowest in the 30-39 d and 80-89 d groups (p < 0.001). Mastitis and somatic cell count (SCC) did not differ between DPL groups, except at the third test milking, where cows in the 40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 DPL groups had lower SCC (p < 0.001) than cows in the 70-79 and 80-89 d groups. The odds ratio (OR) for retained placenta was 1.9 for cows with 30-39 d DPL relative to cows with 60-69 d DPL. Cows in DPL groups 40-49 d and 50-59 ha d the lowest odds of culling (OR=0.89 and 0.92). The OR for culling in cows with DPL 70-79 d and 80-89 was 1.2 and 1.4, respectively, relative to cows with 60-69 d DPL. The conception rate at first insemination did not among between DPL groups. The SR cows produced less ECM than the SH cows, but had lower SCC and lower OR for mastitis, retained placenta, puerperal paresis, and culling within 90 DIM. Although DPL <40 days or>80 days reduced milk production in early lactation and the 305-d lactation, the estimated additional milk production in the preceding lactation in cows with short DPL compensated for this reduction. A DPL of 40 days did not affect health and fertility in comparison with a conventional 60 d DPL, while a DPL of >70 d was unfavorable due to low milk production, increased risk of culling, and decreased fertility. The response to DPL was not affected by breed or parity.

Generalized prediction intervals for treatment effects in random-effects models

This article derives generalized prediction intervals for random effects in linear random-effects models. For balanced and unbalanced data in two-way layouts, models are considered with and without interaction. Coverage of the proposed generalized prediction intervals was estimated in a simulation study based on an agricultural field experiment. Generalized prediction intervals were compared with prediction intervals based on the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) procedure and the approximate methods of Satterthwaite and Kenward and Roger. The simulation study showed that coverage of generalized prediction intervals was closer to the nominal level 0.95 than coverage of prediction intervals based on the REML procedure.

Disinfection with hydrated lime may help manage cryptosporidiosis in calves

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Disinfection of calf pens with slaked lime delayed onset of diarrhea.

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Lime disinfection improved body condition in the calves.

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Lime disinfection did not affect diarrhea incidence or duration.

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Lime disinfection may help manage Cryptosporidium-associated diarrhea in problem herds.

Diarrhea is common in young calves and is often caused by Cryptosporidium parvum infection. The aim of this study was to investigate if disinfection of calf pens with hydrated lime would reduce contamination of C. parvum oocysts and improve calf health in herds with C. parvum associated diarrhea problems. Four dairy herds with ongoing C. parvum associated calf diarrhea problems each participated in the study over six to seven months. During the study period, all pens/huts for young calves were cleaned according to the usual farm routine before a new calf entered. Hydrated lime was then used to disinfect half of the pens/huts. Diarrhea incidence was recorded by the farmers and by veterinarians, who clinically examined the calves every second month. In total, 402 calves participated in the study. The farmers detected diarrhea in 214 (53%) calves, with similar proportions in calves kept in lime disinfected and control pens. Age at diarrhea onset was significantly higher in lime disinfected pens than in control pens, 9.0 days and 7.6 days, respectively. There was no difference between the groups regarding duration or severity index recorded by the farmers. The body condition score in 6–8 week old calves was significantly higher in calves that had been kept in lime disinfected pens during their first weeks of life, indicating that calves in disinfected pens/huts were less affected by their infections.

Faecal samples from 5 to 21 day old calves, were collected on four occasions at each farm (n = 95). Cryptosporidium positive samples were found at all samplings in all four herds. Cryptosporidium spp. was detected in 79 (83%) samples with no difference between lime disinfected and control pens. C. parvum was the dominant species. Two different C. parvum subtypes were found; IIaA16G1R1b in three herds and IIaA16G1R1b_variant in one herd. Only one subtype was found in each herd.

Disinfection of calf pens with slaked lime delayed onset of diarrhea and improved the body condition in the calves, but did not affect diarrhea incidence or duration. Although lime disinfection alone will not be sufficient to control Cryptosporidium associated diarrhea in herds with extensive calf diarrhea problems, these results suggest that it can be a valuable complement to other measures.

Statistical models for evaluating suspected artefacts in long-term environmental monitoring data

Long-term water quality monitoring is of high value for environmental management as well as for research. Artificial level shifts in time series due to method improvements, flaws in laboratory practices or changes in laboratory are a common limitation for analysis, which, however, are often ignored. Statistical estimation of such artefacts is complicated by the simultaneous existence of trends, seasonal variation and effects of other influencing factors, such as weather conditions. Here, we investigate the performance of generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) to simultaneously identify one or more artefacts associated with artificial level shifts, longitudinal effects related to temporal trends and seasonal variation, as well as to model the serial correlation structure of the data. In the same model, it is possible to estimate separate residual variances for different periods so as to identify if artefacts not only influence the mean level but also the dispersion of a series. Even with an appropriate statistical methodology, it is difficult to quantify artificial level shifts and make appropriate adjustments to the time series. The underlying temporal structure of the series is especially important. As long as there is no prominent underlying trend in the series, the shift estimates are rather stable and show less variation. If an artificial shift occurs during a slower downward or upward tendency, it is difficult to separate these two effects and shift estimates can be both biased and have large variation. In the case of a change in method or laboratory, we show that conducting the analyses with both methods in parallel strongly improves estimates of artefact effects on the time series, even if certain problems remain. Due to the difficulties of estimating artificial level shifts, posterior adjustment is problematic and can lead to time series that no longer can be used for trend analysis or other analysis based on the longitudinal structure of the series. Before carrying out a change in analytic method or laboratory, it should be considered if this is absolutely necessary. If changes cannot be avoided, the analysis of the two methods considered, or the two laboratories contracted, should be run in parallel for a considerable period of time so as to enable a good assessment of changes introduced to the data series.

Does forest harvest increase the mercury concentrations in fish? Evidence from Swedish lakes

A number of studies have evaluated the effects of forest harvest on mercury (Hg) concentrations and exports in surface waters, but few studies have tested the effect from forest harvest on the change in fish Hg concentrations over the course of several years after harvest. To address this question, mercury (Hg) concentrations in perch (Perca fluviatilis) muscle tissue from five lakes were analyzed for two years before (2010-2011) and three years after (2013-2015) forest harvest conducted in 2012. Fish Hg concentrations in the clear-cut catchments (n=1373 fish specimens) were related to temporal changes of fish Hg in reference lakes (n=1099 fish specimen) from 19 lakes in the Swedish National Environmental Monitoring Programme. Small (length<100mm) and large perch (length≥100mm) were analyzed separately, due to changing feeding habitats of fish over growing size. There was considerable year-to-year and lake-to-lake variation in fish Hg concentrations (-14%-121%) after forest harvest in the clearcut lakes, according to our first statistical model that count for fish Hg changes. While the effect ascribed to forest harvest varied between years, after three years (in 2015), a significant increase of 26% (p<0.0001) in Hg concentrations of large fish was identified in our second statistical model that pooled all 5 clearcut lakes. The large fish Hg concentrations in the 19 reference lakes also varied, and in 2015 had decreased by 7% (p=0.03) relative to the concentrations in 2010-2011. The majority of the annual changes in fish Hg concentrations in the clearcut lakes after harvest were in the lower range of earlier predictions for high-latitude lakes extrapolated primarily from the effects of forest harvest operations on Hg concentrations in water. Since the risk of forest harvest impacts on Hg extends to fish and not just surface water concentrations, there is even more reason to consider Hg effects in forestry planning, alongside other ecosystem effects.

The revealed preferences of Baltic Sea governments: Goals, policy instruments, and implementation of nutrient abatement measures

Nitrogen and phosphorus loads are considered a major reason for the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Until now, most of the abatement has been made at point sources while the implementation of policies for nonpoint sources has not led to equally large reductions in emissions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of how nutrient abatement measures are implemented by countries in the agricultural sector of the Baltic Sea region. We investigate how goal setting, policy instrument choice, and the level of implementation is determined by characteristics of the abatement measure as well as socio-economic characteristics of the country where it is implemented. Econometric analysis of a cross-sectional data set suggests that income, institutional capacity, and economies of scope in abatement and enforcement are important determinants of policies developed and their implementation.

Biological variation of 20 analytes measured in serum from clinically healthy domestic cats

The applications of data on biological variation include assessment of the utility of population-based reference intervals, evaluation of the significance of change in serial results, and setting of analytical quality specifications. We investigated the biological variation of 19 biochemistry analytes and total T4, measured in serum from 7 clinically healthy domestic cats sampled once weekly for 5 weeks. Samples were frozen and analyzed in random order in the same analytical run. Results were analyzed for outliers, and the components of variance, subsequently generated by restricted maximum likelihood, were used to determine within-subject and between-subject variation (CV_I and CV_G, respectively), as well as analytical variation (CV_A) for each analyte. Indices of individuality, reference change values, and analytical performance goals were calculated. The smallest CV_I and CV_G were found for calcium, chloride, and sodium, whereas the largest values were calculated for bile acids. Nine analytes (albumin, alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, cholesterol, creatinine, phosphate [phosphorus], total protein, total T4) demonstrated high individuality, indicating limited utility of population-based reference intervals. Individuality was low, and population-based reference intervals were thereby considered appropriate for 5 analytes (bile acids, calcium, fructosamine, glucose, potassium). The intermediate individuality observed for 4 analytes (creatine kinase, iron, magnesium, urea) indicated that population-based reference intervals should be used with caution.

Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.

Impact of forestry on total and methyl-mercury in surface waters: distinguishing effects of logging and site preparation

Forestry operations can increase the export of mercury (both total and methyl) to surface waters. However, little is known about the relative contribution of different forestry practices. We address this question using a paired-catchment study that distinguishes the effects of site preparation from the antecedent logging. Runoff water from three catchments, two harvested and one untreated control, was sampled biweekly during one year prior to logging, two years after logging, and three years after site preparation. The logging alone did not significantly increase the concentrations of either total or methyl-mercury in runoff, but export increased by 50-70% in one of the harvested catchments as a consequence of increased runoff volume. The combined effects of logging and site preparation increased total and methyl-mercury concentrations by 30-50% relative to preharvest conditions in both treated catchments. The more pronounced concentration effect after site preparation compared to logging could be related to site preparation being conducted during summer. This caused more soil disturbance than logging, which was done during winter with snow covering the ground. The results suggest that the cumulative impact of forest harvest on catchment mercury outputs depends on when and how forestry operations are implemented.

Seasonal pattern of lesion development in diseased Fraxinus excelsior infected by Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus

Ash dieback is a recent widespread disease on ash (Fraxinus sp.) that is causing important economic and ecological losses throughout Europe. The disease is initiated by the ascomycetous fungus Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus (anamorph Chalara fraxinea). The main aim of this study was to investigate seasonal pattern of lesion development associated with ash dieback. We present data on the spread of 324 natural lesions in ash shoots, branches and stems surveyed over a 32 month period. Most lesions were active and showed the greatest rate of growth during the summer; however, lesions were active throughout the year. Tree mortality was high, with more than a third of the surveyed trees dying during the study. Although many lesions permanently ceased to develop, the rate at which new lesions emerged was greater than the rate at which lesions entered a resting phase. The most common cause for a lesion going into a permanent state of rest was that it had encountered a branch-base. Genotype analysis showed that multiple infections can occur in a single tree given that different genotypes were identified in different lesions as well as in single lesions. A weak positive correlation was noted between tree health and tree size and a weak negative correlation was noted between tree overall health and lesion activity. The lower limit for H. pseudoalbidus growth in culture was between 4.0°C and 0.5°C.

The effects of forest harvest operations on mercury and methylmercury in two boreal streams: relatively small changes in the first two years prior to site preparation

Forest harvest is hypothesized to increase the mercury (Hg) load in aquatic ecosystems. The Balsjö paired catchment study examined the outputs of methylmercury (MeHg) and total mercury (Hg(tot)) from two boreal catchments during the 2 y following forest harvest but prior to site preparation. This enabled us to separate the effect of the two operations that followed best management practices. Hg(tot) concentrations increased by approximately 15%, and fluxes by 20-30%. The MeHg concentrations and fluxes either declined or increased by up to 60%, depending on whether annual MeHg peaks during summer low flows were considered to have been influenced by forest harvest. The lack of a severalfold increase in Hg outputs after forest harvest, as reported from other sites, may be the result of minimal soil disturbance during the winter forest harvest operations. If so, there may be a greater Hg response after soil scarification to prepare for planting.

Short-term effects of clear-cutting on the water chemistry of two boreal streams in northern Sweden: a paired catchment study

The effects of clear-cutting on stream-water chemistry in northern Sweden remain largely unexplored. Here we report data collected during a reference period and the first two years after logging in two typical partially harvested northern catchments; the objective was to compare water chemistry along the stream with and without a forest buffer. Two typical uncut reference catchments are included for comparison. Runoff was measured at the outlet of each catchment, and water samples were generally taken every second week and analyzed for 20 constituents. Logging resulted in increased runoff and increased concentrations of sodium, potassium, chloride, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended material from both catchments. Nitrate (NO3-) leaching increased only from the catchment without a forest buffer. It has not yet been possible to evaluate fully the effects of the forest buffer on the NO3- leaching because the uphill clear-cut area leached minimal amounts of NO3-.