Assessment of trends in climatic extremes from observational data in the Kashmir basin, NW Himalaya

Evaluation of drought events using multiple drought indices under climate change in the Upper Indus Basin

Spatiotemporal variations in drought events were examined through multiple drought indices in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) during the 1980-2020 period using observed climate data of precipitation, temperature (T max., T min., and T mean), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 16 meteorological stations. Software like ClimPACT2 (to quality check data and generate SPI, SPEI, and CDD drought indices), DrinC (to generate AI, eRDI and PD drought indices), CMhyd (to bias correct NASA POWER gridded data), and ArcGIS (to map extreme drought years) were used in this study. It was revealed that precipitation decreased at 30 mm/decade and maximum and minimum temperatures increased at 0.132 °C/decade and 0.23 °C/decade, aridity increased by decreasing aridity index at 0.15/decade, and number of consecutive dry days increased at 2 days/decade. All drought indices reflected decreasing trends, indicating a warming and drying climatic regime. The eRDI drought index analysis revealed that droughts have occurred for 12.6 years in the last four decades, and mild droughts (15%) are more common, followed by moderate droughts (9.4%), severe droughts (4.7%), and extreme droughts (2.4%). The study provides comparisons of drought patterns under changing climate in three distinct climatic and physical regions of UIB, i.e., Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh, and reveals that the UIB is not free from droughts.

Mass balance of Nehnar glacier from 2000 to 2020, using temperature indexed-IAAR approach

Glacier mass balance is inextricably linked to annual meteorological conditions and is a key indicator for assessing the ice reserves of a glacier. As a result, a number of studies have estimated glacier mass balance using different methods. Here, we have used the improved accumulation area-ratio (IAAR) method to study the mass balance of the Nehnar glacier from 2000 to 2020. This study also aims to study the spatiotemporal behavior and other dynamics of the glacier. Results have shown that the glacier has continuously lost its ice reserves throughout the studied period though at a lower rate since 2010. Its annual specific mass balance has changed from - 50.10 ± 3 cm w.e in 2000 to - 59.46 ± 3 cm w.e. in 2020. The equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the glacier rose by 90 m and has shifted from 4260 masl in 2000 to 4350 masl in 2020. The glacier has shrunk from an area of 1.64 km2 in 2000 to 1.38 km2 in 2020 losing nearly 16% of its area. The study highlights the need for continued monitoring of glacier mass balance to better understand and predict the effects of climate change. These findings have important implications for the future of glacier retreat and water reserves of the Jhelum basin.

Complementary use of multi-model climate ensemble and Bayesian model averaging for projecting river hydrology in the Himalaya

Considering the sensitivity and importance of water resources in the Himalayan uplands, this study intended to assess the hydrological responses to climate change in the Jhelum basin. Representative concentration pathway (RCP)-based projections from six dynamically downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were bias-corrected for developing the climatic projections over the twenty-first century. The uncertainty associated with GCM outputs was addressed by using multi-model ensemble projections developed through Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique. The assessment reveals that compared to the baseline (1980-2010) values, the annual mean maximum temperature in the basin will rise by 0.41-2.31 °C and 0.63-4.82 °C, and the mean minimum temperature will increase by 1.39-2.37 °C and 2.14-4.34 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. While precipitation is expected to decrease by 7.2-4.57% and 4.75-2.47% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, correspondingly. BMA ensemble projections were coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the future hydrological scenarios of the drainage basin. With the changing climate, the discharge of rivers in the Jhelum basin is expected to witness reductions by about 23-37% for RCP4.5 and 19-46% for RCP8.5. Moreover, the water yield of the basin may also exhibit decreases of 17-25% for RCP4.5 and 18-42% for RCP8.5. The projected scenarios are likely to cause water stress, affect the availability of water for diverse uses, and trigger transboundary water-sharing-related conflicts. The impact of climate change on discharge demands early attention for the formulation of mitigation and adaptive measures at the regional level and beyond.

Assessing indigenous community's perspectives and attitudes toward tourism development impacts in the northwestern Himalayas, India

An assessment and monitoring of tourism impacts coupled with community perception have emerged as a vital tool for ensuring the sustainability of mountain tourism destinations in recent years. The present study aims to explore the indigenous community's perspectives on tourism impacts and their participation in the process of tourism development at Doodhpathri, an emerging tourist resort in Jammu and Kashmir, India. A non-probability convenience sampling method based on 344 questionnaires has been used to accomplish the research objectives. Inferential statistics and factor analysis were employed to analyze the collected data. Our assessment reveals that in general, tourism is viewed as a development industry. Its positives are better perceived than its negatives, given that it generates employment prospects, boosts household income, improves the image of the area, and raises the indigenous community's standard of living. However, a substantial portion of the population living in the area perceives tourism activities as the cause of multiple environmental and biophysical issues, such as increased waste generation leading to pollution and water quality deterioration. On the whole, most of the residents were positive about future tourism development and optimistic about tourism management practices. However, the area has recently observed a voluminous influx of both local and foreign tourists, which necessitates the formulation of a sustainable tourism planning strategy.

Systematic Review of Multi-Dimensional Vulnerabilities in the Himalayas

The Himalayan region is a fragile high mountain landscape where the population experiences acute vulnerability within a complex coupled human-natural system due to environmental, social, and economic linkages. The lack of significant regional and spatial knowledge of multi-faceted vulnerabilities hinders any potential recommendations to address these vulnerabilities. We systematically reviewed the literature to recommend mitigation interventions based on the region's socio-economic and ecological vulnerability research to date. We applied the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting of Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis) criteria to search for results from four comprehensive databases. For our assessment, we compiled a final sample (n = 59) of vulnerability research papers to examine the vulnerability types, spatial variation, assessment methodology, and significant drivers of change. Our study represented all Himalayan countries, namely, India, Nepal, Pakistan, China, and Bhutan. More than half of the vulnerability studies were conducted in the central Himalayan region, a quarter in the western Himalayas, and a few in the eastern Himalayas. Our review revealed that the primary drivers of change were climate change, land use/land cover, and glacial lake formation. The vulnerability assessments in the Himalayan region primarily used social science methods as compared to natural science methods. While the vulnerability studies seldom assessed mitigation interventions, our analysis identified fourteen recommendations. The recommended interventions mainly included policy interventions, livelihood improvement, and adaptation measures. This study emphasized that sustainable development requires cross-sectoral interventions to manage existing resources and mitigate the confronting vulnerabilities of the region.

Innovative Trend Analysis of High-Altitude Climatology of Kashmir Valley, North-West Himalayas

This paper investigates the annual and seasonal variations in the minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmin and Tmax) and precipitation over Kashmir valley, Northwestern Himalayas from 1980–2019 by using the innovative trend analysis (ITA), Mann-Kendall (MK), and Sen’s slope estimator methods. The results indicated that the annual and seasonal Tmin and Tmax are increasing for all the six climatic stations, whereas four of them exhibit significant increasing trends at (α = 0.05). Moreover, this increase in Tmin and Tmax was found more pronounced at higher altitude stations, i.e., Pahalgam (2650 m asl) and Gulmarg (2740 m asl). The annual and seasonal precipitation patterns for all climatic stations showed downward trends. For instance, Gulmarg station exhibited a significant downward trend for the annual, spring, and winter seasons (α = 0.05). Whereas, Qazigund showed a significant downward trend for the annual and spring seasons (α = 0.05). The overall analysis revealed that the increased Tmin and Tmax trends during the winter season are one of the reasons behind the early onset of melting of snow and the corresponding spring season. Furthermore, the observed decreased precipitation trends could result in making the region vulnerable towards drier climatic extremes. Such changes in the region’s hydro-meteorological processes shall have severe implications on the delicate ecological balance of the fragile environment of the Kashmir valley.