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Parreira MR, Nabout JC. Hydropower Plants as Dispersal Barriers in Freshwater Species Distribution Models: Using Restrictions through Asymmetrical Dispersal Predictors. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 72:424-436. [PMID: 37014399 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-023-01812-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2022] [Accepted: 03/16/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
Hydropower plants represent one of the greatest threats for freshwater fish by fragmenting the habitat and avoiding the species dispersal. This type of dispersal barrier is often disregarded when predicting freshwater species distribution due to the complexity in inserting the species dispersal routes, and thus the barriers, into the models. Here, we evaluate the impact of including hydroelectric dams into species distribution models through asymmetrical dispersal predictors on the predicted geographic distribution of freshwater fish species. For this, we used asymmetrical dispersal (i.e., AEM) as predictors for modeling the distribution of 29 native fish species of Tocantins-Araguaia River basin. After that, we included the hydropower power plant (HPP) location into the asymmetrical binary matrix for the AEM construction by removing the connections where the HPP is located, representing the downstream disconnection a dam causes in the fish species dispersal route. Besides having higher predicted accuracy, the models using the HPP information generated more realistic predictions, avoiding overpredictions to areas suitable but limited to the species dispersal due to an anthropic barrier. Furthermore, the predictions including HPPs showed higher loss of species richness and nestedness (i.e., loss of species instead of replacement), especially for the southeastern area which concentrates most planned and built HPPs. Therefore, using dispersal constraints in species distribution models increases the reliability of the predictions by avoiding overpredictions based on premise of complete access by the species to any area that is climatically suitable regardless of dispersal barriers or capacity. In conclusion, in this study, we use a novel method of including dispersal constraints into distribution models through a priori insertion of their location within the asymmetrical dispersal predictors, avoiding a posteriori adjustment of the predicted distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Micael Rosa Parreira
- Universidade Federal de Goiás, Campus Samambaia, Goiânia, GO, 74690-900, Brazil.
| | - João Carlos Nabout
- Universidade Estadual de Goiás, Campus Central, Anápolis, GO, 75132-903, Brazil
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Is there concordance between Science and Technology in Natural Science? Mapping the relationship among number of papers and patents from research on Cerrado plants. WORLD PATENT INFORMATION 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.wpi.2022.102108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
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Ferreira RB, Parreira MR, de Arruda FV, Falcão MJA, de Freitas Mansano V, Nabout JC. Combining ecological niche models with experimental seed germination to estimate the effect of climate change on the distribution of endangered plant species in the Brazilian Cerrado. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2022; 194:283. [PMID: 35294661 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-022-09897-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Accepted: 02/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Predicting the geographic distribution of plants that provide ecosystem services is essential to understand the adaptation of communities and conserve that group toward climate change. Predictions can be more accurate if changes in physiological characteristics of species due to those changes are included. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the different hierarchical levels of Apuleia leiocarpa (Vogel) J. F. Macbr. (Fabaceae). Therefore, we experimentally evaluate the effect of different temperatures on the initial development (vigor) and estimate the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of the species, using ecological niche approaches. For the experiment, we used 11 temperature intervals of 2 °C ranging from 21 to 41 °C. We used ecological niche modeling techniques (ENM) to predict the species' environmental suitability in future climate scenarios. The association between the experiment and niche models was obtained by testing the relationships of temperature increase on the species vigor and geographic distribution. This conceptual model to determine the direct and indirect effects of temperature was generated using the methodological framework of structural equation models. The experiment showed that the seeds had the highest growth at 31 °C. ENMs indicated that due to climate change, there is a tendency for the plant to migrate to regions with milder temperatures. However, such regions may be unsuitable for the plant since they do not have ideal temperatures to germinate, which may cause a drastic reduction in their availability in a future climate change scenario. The inclusion of seed germination through experimental research allowed us to detect an area that is less suitable for germination despite being climatically suitable for the species. Thus, research that integrates the effect of climate on the different stages of the organism's development is essential to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rafael Batista Ferreira
- Universidade Estadual de Goiás, Fazenda Barreiro Do Meio, Campus Central, BR 153, Anápolis, Goiás, 310575132-400, Brazil.
- Faculdade Metropolitana de Anápolis, Av. Fernando Costa 49 - Vila Jaiara St. Norte, Anápolis, Goiás, 75064-780, Brazil.
| | - Micael Rosa Parreira
- Universidade Federal de Goiás, Chácaras de Recreio Samambaia, Campus Samambaia, Av. Esperança, s/n, Goiânia, Goiás, 74690-900, Brazil
| | - Filipe Viegas de Arruda
- Universidade Estadual de Goiás, Fazenda Barreiro Do Meio, Campus Central, BR 153, Anápolis, Goiás, 310575132-400, Brazil
- Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia, Asa Norte CLN 211, BL B Sala 201, Brasília, Distrito Federal, 70863-520, Brazil
| | - Marcus J A Falcão
- Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico Do Rio de Janeiro, DIPEQ. Rua Pacheco Leão 915, Jardim Botânico, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 22460-030, Brazil
| | - Vidal de Freitas Mansano
- Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico Do Rio de Janeiro, DIPEQ. Rua Pacheco Leão 915, Jardim Botânico, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 22460-030, Brazil
| | - João Carlos Nabout
- Universidade Estadual de Goiás, Fazenda Barreiro Do Meio, Campus Central, BR 153, Anápolis, Goiás, 310575132-400, Brazil
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