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Patil S, Pandya S. Forecasting Dengue Hotspots Associated With Variation in Meteorological Parameters Using Regression and Time Series Models. Front Public Health 2021; 9:798034. [PMID: 34900929 PMCID: PMC8661059 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.798034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2021] [Accepted: 11/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
For forecasting the spread of dengue, monitoring climate change and its effects specific to the disease is necessary. Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading vector-borne infectious diseases. This paper proposes a forecasting model for predicting dengue incidences considering climatic variability across nine cities of Maharashtra state of India over 10 years. The work involves the collection of five climatic factors such as mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and mean wind speed for 10 years. Monthly incidences of dengue for the same locations are also collected. Different regression models such as random forest regression, decision trees regression, support vector regress, multiple linear regression, elastic net regression, and polynomial regression are used. Time-series forecasting models such as holt's forecasting, autoregressive, Moving average, ARIMA, SARIMA, and Facebook prophet are implemented and compared to forecast the dengue outbreak accurately. The research shows that humidity and mean maximum temperature are the major climate factors and exhibit strong positive and negative correlation, respectively, with dengue incidences for all locations of Maharashtra state. Mean minimum temperature and rainfall are moderately positively correlated with dengue incidences. Mean wind speed is a less significant factor and is weakly negatively correlated with dengue incidences. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R square error (R 2) evaluation metrics are used to compare the performance of the prediction model. Random Forest Regression is the best-fit regression model for five out of nine cities, while Support Vector Regression is for two cities. Facebook Prophet Model is the best fit time series forecasting model for six out of nine cities. Based on the prediction, Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, and Pune are the high-risk regions, especially in August, September, and October. The findings exhibit an effective early warning system that would predict the outbreak of other infectious diseases. It will help the relevant authorities to take accurate preventive measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seema Patil
- Symbiosis Institute of Technology, Symbiosis International (Deemed University), Pune, India
| | - Sharnil Pandya
- Symbiosis Institute of Technology, Symbiosis International (Deemed University), Pune, India
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Oliva CF, Benedict MQ, Collins CM, Baldet T, Bellini R, Bossin H, Bouyer J, Corbel V, Facchinelli L, Fouque F, Geier M, Michaelakis A, Roiz D, Simard F, Tur C, Gouagna LC. Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) against Aedes Species Mosquitoes: A Roadmap and Good Practice Framework for Designing, Implementing and Evaluating Pilot Field Trials. INSECTS 2021; 12:191. [PMID: 33668374 PMCID: PMC7996155 DOI: 10.3390/insects12030191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2021] [Revised: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 02/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti are invasive mosquito species that impose a substantial risk to human health. To control the abundance and spread of these arboviral pathogen vectors, the sterile insect technique (SIT) is emerging as a powerful complement to most commonly-used approaches, in part, because this technique is ecologically benign, specific, and non-persistent in the environment if releases are stopped. Because SIT and other similar vector control strategies are becoming of increasing interest to many countries, we offer here a pragmatic and accessible 'roadmap' for the pre-pilot and pilot phases to guide any interested party. This will support stakeholders, non-specialist scientists, implementers, and decision-makers. Applying these concepts will ensure, given adequate resources, a sound basis for local field trialing and for developing experience with the technique in readiness for potential operational deployment. This synthesis is based on the available literature, in addition to the experience and current knowledge of the expert contributing authors in this field. We describe a typical path to successful pilot testing, with the four concurrent development streams of Laboratory, Field, Stakeholder Relations, and the Business and Compliance Case. We provide a graphic framework with criteria that must be met in order to proceed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clélia F. Oliva
- Centre Technique Interprofessionnel des Fruits et Légumes (CTIFL), Centre Opérationnel de Balandran, 751 Chemin de Balandran, 30127 Bellegarde, France;
- Collectif TIS (Technique de l’Insecte Stérile), 751 Chemin de Balandran, 30127 Bellegarde, France
| | | | - C Matilda Collins
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 1NE, UK;
| | - Thierry Baldet
- ASTRE (Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, Ecosystèmes), Cirad, Univ Montpellier, 34398 Montpellier, France; (T.B.); (J.B.)
| | - Romeo Bellini
- Centro Agricoltura Ambiente “Giorgio Nicoli”, S.r.l. Via Sant’Agata, 835, 40014 Crevalcore, Italy;
| | - Hervé Bossin
- Institut Louis Malardé, Papeete, 98713 Tahiti, French Polynesia;
| | - Jérémy Bouyer
- ASTRE (Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, Ecosystèmes), Cirad, Univ Montpellier, 34398 Montpellier, France; (T.B.); (J.B.)
- Insect Pest Control Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Programme of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, IAEA Vienna, Wagramer Strasse 5, 1400 Vienna, Austria
| | - Vincent Corbel
- UMR MIVEGEC (Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Écologie, Génétique, Évolution et Contrôle), IRD-CNRS-Univ. Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier, France; (V.C.); (D.R.); (F.S.)
| | - Luca Facchinelli
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool L3 5QA, UK;
| | - Florence Fouque
- TDR (Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases), WHO, 20 Avenue Appia, 1121 Geneva, Switzerland;
| | - Martin Geier
- Biogents AG, Weissenburgstr. 22, 93055 Regensburg, Germany;
| | - Antonios Michaelakis
- Benaki Phytopathological Institute. 8, S. Delta str., Kifissia, 14561 Athens, Greece;
| | - David Roiz
- UMR MIVEGEC (Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Écologie, Génétique, Évolution et Contrôle), IRD-CNRS-Univ. Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier, France; (V.C.); (D.R.); (F.S.)
| | - Frédéric Simard
- UMR MIVEGEC (Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Écologie, Génétique, Évolution et Contrôle), IRD-CNRS-Univ. Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier, France; (V.C.); (D.R.); (F.S.)
| | - Carlos Tur
- Grupo Tragsa–KM. 4,5 Bajo, A28476208-EMPRE, Moncada, 46113 Valencia, Spain;
| | - Louis-Clément Gouagna
- UMR MIVEGEC (Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Écologie, Génétique, Évolution et Contrôle), IRD-CNRS-Univ. Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier, France; (V.C.); (D.R.); (F.S.)
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Trump BD, Cegan J, Wells E, Poinsatte-Jones K, Rycroft T, Warner C, Martin D, Perkins E, Wood MD, Linkov I. Co-evolution of physical and social sciences in synthetic biology. Crit Rev Biotechnol 2019; 39:351-365. [PMID: 30727764 DOI: 10.1080/07388551.2019.1566203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Emerging technologies research often covers various perspectives in disciplines and research areas ranging from hard sciences, engineering, policymaking, and sociology. However, the interrelationship between these different disciplinary domains, particularly the physical and social sciences, often occurs many years after a technology has matured and moved towards commercialization. Synthetic biology may serve an exception to this idea, where, since 2000, the physical and the social sciences communities have increasingly framed their research in response to various perspectives in biological engineering, risk assessment needs, governance challenges, and the social implications that the technology may incur. This paper reviews a broad collection of synthetic biology literature from 2000-2016, and demonstrates how the co-development of physical and social science communities has grown throughout synthetic biology's earliest stages of development. Further, this paper indicates that future co-development of synthetic biology scholarship will assist with significant challenges of the technology's risk assessment, governance, and public engagement needs, where an interdisciplinary approach is necessary to foster sustainable, risk-informed, and societally beneficial technological advances moving forward.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin D Trump
- a Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education , US Army Corps of Engineers, Oak Ridge , TN , USA.,b US Army Engineer Research and Development Center , Vicksburg , MS , USA
| | - Jeffrey Cegan
- c SOL Engineering Services, LLC , Vicksburg , MS , USA
| | - Emily Wells
- c SOL Engineering Services, LLC , Vicksburg , MS , USA
| | | | - Taylor Rycroft
- b US Army Engineer Research and Development Center , Vicksburg , MS , USA
| | - Christopher Warner
- b US Army Engineer Research and Development Center , Vicksburg , MS , USA
| | - David Martin
- b US Army Engineer Research and Development Center , Vicksburg , MS , USA
| | - Edward Perkins
- b US Army Engineer Research and Development Center , Vicksburg , MS , USA
| | - Matthew D Wood
- b US Army Engineer Research and Development Center , Vicksburg , MS , USA
| | - Igor Linkov
- b US Army Engineer Research and Development Center , Vicksburg , MS , USA
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