Blinded predictions of standard binding free energies: lessons learned from the SAMPL6 challenge

Comparison of Methodologies for Absolute Binding Free Energy Calculations of Ligands to Intrinsically Disordered Proteins

Modulating the function of Intrinsically Disordered Proteins (IDPs) with small molecules is of considerable importance given the crucial roles of IDPs in the pathophysiology of numerous diseases. Reported binding affinities for ligands to diverse IDPs vary broadly, and little is known about the detailed molecular mechanisms that underpin ligand efficacy. Molecular simulations of IDP ligand binding mechanisms can help us understand the mode of action of small molecule inhibitors of IDP function, but it is still unclear how binding energies can be modeled rigorously for such a flexible class of proteins. Here, we compare alchemical absolute binding free energy calculations (ABFE) and Markov-State Modeling (MSM) protocols to model the binding of the small molecule 10058-F4 to a disordered peptide extracted from a segment of the oncoprotein c-Myc. The ABFE results produce binding energy estimates that are sensitive to the choice of reference structure. In contrast, the MSM results produce more reproducible binding energy estimates consistent with weak mM binding affinities and transient intermolecular contacts reported in the literature.

Automated Adaptive Absolute Binding Free Energy Calculations

Alchemical absolute binding free energy (ABFE) calculations have substantial potential in drug discovery, but are often prohibitively computationally expensive. To unlock their potential, efficient automated ABFE workflows are required to reduce both computational cost and human intervention. We present a fully automated ABFE workflow based on the automated selection of λ windows, the ensemble-based detection of equilibration, and the adaptive allocation of sampling time based on inter-replicate statistics. We find that the automated selection of intermediate states with consistent overlap is rapid, robust, and simple to implement. Robust detection of equilibration is achieved with a paired t-test between the free energy estimates at initial and final portions of a an ensemble of runs. We determine reasonable default parameters for all algorithms and show that the full workflow produces equivalent results to a nonadaptive scheme over a variety of test systems, while often accelerating equilibration. Our complete workflow is implemented in the open-source package A3FE (https://github.com/michellab/a3fe).

Sire: An interoperability engine for prototyping algorithms and exchanging information between molecular simulation programs

Sire is a Python/C++ library that is used both to prototype new algorithms and as an interoperability engine for exchanging information between molecular simulation programs. It provides a collection of file parsers and information converters that together make it easier to combine and leverage the functionality of many other programs and libraries. This empowers researchers to use sire to write a single script that can, for example, load a molecule from a PDBx/mmCIF file via Gemmi, perform SMARTS searches via RDKit, parameterize molecules using BioSimSpace, run GPU-accelerated molecular dynamics via OpenMM, and then display the resulting dynamics trajectory in a NGLView Jupyter notebook 3D molecular viewer. This functionality is built on by BioSimSpace, which uses sire's molecular information engine to interconvert with programs such as GROMACS, NAMD, Amber, and AmberTools for automated molecular parameterization and the running of molecular dynamics, metadynamics, and alchemical free energy workflows. Sire comes complete with a powerful molecular information search engine, plus trajectory loading and editing, analysis, and energy evaluation engines. This, when combined with an in-built computer algebra system, gives substantial flexibility to researchers to load, search for, edit, and combine molecular information from multiple sources and use that to drive novel algorithms by combining functionality from other programs. Sire is open source (GPL3) and is available via conda and at a free Jupyter notebook server at https://try.openbiosim.org. Sire is supported by the not-for-profit OpenBioSim community interest company.

Comparison of Receptor-Ligand Restraint Schemes for Alchemical Absolute Binding Free Energy Calculations

Alchemical absolute binding free energy calculations are of increasing interest in drug discovery. These calculations require restraints between the receptor and ligand to restrict their relative positions and, optionally, orientations. Boresch restraints are commonly used, but they must be carefully selected in order to sufficiently restrain the ligand and to avoid inherent instabilities. Applying multiple distance restraints between anchor points in the receptor and ligand provides an alternative framework without inherent instabilities which may provide convergence benefits by more strongly restricting the relative movements of the receptor and ligand. However, there is no simple method to calculate the free energy of releasing these restraints due to the coupling of the internal and external degrees of freedom of the receptor and ligand. Here, a method to rigorously calculate free energies of binding with multiple distance restraints by imposing intramolecular restraints on the anchor points is proposed. Absolute binding free energies for the human macrophage migration inhibitory factor/MIF180, system obtained using a variety of Boresch restraints and rigorous and nonrigorous implementations of multiple distance restraints are compared. It is shown that several multiple distance restraint schemes produce estimates in good agreement with Boresch restraints. In contrast, calculations without orientational restraints produce erroneously favorable free energies of binding by up to approximately 4 kcal mol-1. These approaches offer new options for the deployment of alchemical absolute binding free energy calculations.

Local Ion Densities can Influence Transition Paths of Molecular Binding

Improper reaction coordinates can pose significant problems for path-based binding free energy calculations. Particularly, omission of long timescale motions can lead to over-estimation of the energetic barriers between the bound and unbound states. Many methods exist to construct the optimal reaction coordinate using a pre-defined basis set of features. Although simulations are typically conducted in explicit solvent, the solvent atoms are often excluded by these feature sets—resulting in little being known about their role in reaction coordinates, and ultimately, their role in determining (un)binding rates and free energies. In this work, analysis is done on an extensive set of host-guest unbinding trajectories, working to characterize differences between high and low probability unbinding trajectories with a focus on solvent-based features, including host-ion interactions, guest-ion interactions and location-dependent ion densities. We find that differences in ion densities as well as guest-ion interactions strongly correlate with differences in the probabilities of reactive paths that are used to determine free energies of (un)binding and play a significant role in the unbinding process.

Molecular Environment-Specific Atomic Charges Improve Binding Affinity Predictions of SAMPL5 Host-Guest Systems

Host-guest systems are widely used in benchmarks as model systems to improve computational methods for absolute binding free energy predictions. Recent advances in sampling algorithms for alchemical free energy calculations and the increase in computational power have made their binding affinity prediction primarily dependent on the quality of the force field. Here, we propose a new methodology to derive the atomic charges of host-guest systems based on quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics calculations and minimal basis iterative stockholder (MBIS) partitioning of the polarized electron density. A newly developed interface between the OpenMM and ORCA software packages provides D-MBIS charges that represent the guest's average electrostatic interactions in the hosts or the solvent. The simulation workflow also calculates the average energy required to polarize the guest in the bound and unbound state. Alchemical free energy calculations using the general Amber force field parameters with D-MBIS charges improve the binding affinity prediction of six guests bound to two octa acid hosts compared to the AM1-BCC charge set after correction with the average energetic polarization cost. This correction originates from the difference in potential energy that is required to polarize the guest in the bound and unbound state and contributes significantly to the binding affinity of anionic guests.

Binding free energy predictions in host-guest systems using Autodock4. A retrospective analysis on SAMPL6, SAMPL7 and SAMPL8 challenges

We systematically tested the Autodock4 docking program for absolute binding free energy predictions using the host-guest systems from the recent SAMPL6, SAMPL7 and SAMPL8 challenges. We found that Autodock4 behaves surprisingly well, outperforming in many instances expensive molecular dynamics or quantum chemistry techniques, with an extremely favorable benefit-cost ratio. Some interesting features of Autodock4 predictions are revealed, yielding valuable hints on the overall reliability of docking screening campaigns in drug discovery projects.

Implementation of the QUBE Force Field in SOMD for High-Throughput Alchemical Free-Energy Calculations

The quantum mechanical bespoke (QUBE) force-field approach has been developed to facilitate the automated derivation of potential energy function parameters for modeling protein-ligand binding. To date, the approach has been validated in the context of Monte Carlo simulations of protein-ligand complexes. We describe here the implementation of the QUBE force field in the alchemical free-energy calculation molecular dynamics simulation package SOMD. The implementation is validated by demonstrating the reproducibility of absolute hydration free energies computed with the QUBE force field across the SOMD and GROMACS software packages. We further demonstrate, by way of a case study involving two series of non-nucleoside inhibitors of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase, that the availability of QUBE in a modern simulation package that makes efficient use of graphics processing unit acceleration will facilitate high-throughput alchemical free-energy calculations.

Accurate Receptor-Ligand Binding Free Energies from Fast QM Conformational Chemical Space Sampling

Small molecule receptor-binding is dominated by weak, non-covalent interactions such as van-der-Waals hydrogen bonding or electrostatics. Calculating these non-covalent ligand-receptor interactions is a challenge to computational means in terms of accuracy and efficacy since the ligand may bind in a number of thermally accessible conformations. The conformational rotamer ensemble sampling tool (CREST) uses an iterative scheme to efficiently sample the conformational space and calculates energies using the semi-empirical 'Geometry, Frequency, Noncovalent, eXtended Tight Binding' (GFN2-xTB) method. This combined approach is applied to blind predictions of the modes and free energies of binding for a set of 10 drug molecule ligands to the cucurbit[n]urils CB[8] receptor from the recent 'Statistical Assessment of the Modeling of Proteins and Ligands' (SAMPL) challenge including morphine, hydromorphine, cocaine, fentanyl, and ketamine. For each system, the conformational space was sufficiently sampled for the free ligand and the ligand-receptor complexes using the quantum chemical Hamiltonian. A multitude of structures makes up the final conformer-rotamer ensemble, for which then free energies of binding are calculated. For those large and complex molecules, the results are in good agreement with experimental values with a mean error of 3 kcal/mol. The GFN2-xTB energies of binding are validated by advanced density functional theory calculations and found to be in good agreement. The efficacy of the automated QM sampling workflow allows the extension towards other complex molecular interaction scenarios.

Hybrid Alchemical Free Energy/Machine-Learning Methodology for the Computation of Hydration Free Energies

A methodology that combines alchemical free energy calculations (FEP) with machine learning (ML) has been developed to compute accurate absolute hydration free energies. The hybrid FEP/ML methodology was trained on a subset of the FreeSolv database and retrospectively shown to outperform most submissions from the SAMPL4 competition. Compared to pure machine-learning approaches, FEP/ML yields more precise estimates of free energies of hydration and requires a fraction of the training set size to outperform standalone FEP calculations. The ML-derived correction terms are further shown to be transferable to a range of related FEP simulation protocols. The approach may be used to inexpensively improve the accuracy of FEP calculations and to flag molecules which will benefit the most from bespoke force field parametrization efforts.

The SAMPL6 SAMPLing challenge: assessing the reliability and efficiency of binding free energy calculations

Approaches for computing small molecule binding free energies based on molecular simulations are now regularly being employed by academic and industry practitioners to study receptor-ligand systems and prioritize the synthesis of small molecules for ligand design. Given the variety of methods and implementations available, it is natural to ask how the convergence rates and final predictions of these methods compare. In this study, we describe the concept and results for the SAMPL6 SAMPLing challenge, the first challenge from the SAMPL series focusing on the assessment of convergence properties and reproducibility of binding free energy methodologies. We provided parameter files, partial charges, and multiple initial geometries for two octa-acid (OA) and one cucurbit[8]uril (CB8) host-guest systems. Participants submitted binding free energy predictions as a function of the number of force and energy evaluations for seven different alchemical and physical-pathway (i.e., potential of mean force and weighted ensemble of trajectories) methodologies implemented with the GROMACS, AMBER, NAMD, or OpenMM simulation engines. To rank the methods, we developed an efficiency statistic based on bias and variance of the free energy estimates. For the two small OA binders, the free energy estimates computed with alchemical and potential of mean force approaches show relatively similar variance and bias as a function of the number of energy/force evaluations, with the attach-pull-release (APR), GROMACS expanded ensemble, and NAMD double decoupling submissions obtaining the greatest efficiency. The differences between the methods increase when analyzing the CB8-quinine system, where both the guest size and correlation times for system dynamics are greater. For this system, nonequilibrium switching (GROMACS/NS-DS/SB) obtained the overall highest efficiency. Surprisingly, the results suggest that specifying force field parameters and partial charges is insufficient to generally ensure reproducibility, and we observe differences between seemingly converged predictions ranging approximately from 0.3 to 1.0 kcal/mol, even with almost identical simulations parameters and system setup (e.g., Lennard-Jones cutoff, ionic composition). Further work will be required to completely identify the exact source of these discrepancies. Among the conclusions emerging from the data, we found that Hamiltonian replica exchange-while displaying very small variance-can be affected by a slowly-decaying bias that depends on the initial population of the replicas, that bidirectional estimators are significantly more efficient than unidirectional estimators for nonequilibrium free energy calculations for systems considered, and that the Berendsen barostat introduces non-negligible artifacts in expanded ensemble simulations.

Binding Thermodynamics of Host-Guest Systems with SMIRNOFF99Frosst 1.0.5 from the Open Force Field Initiative

Designing ligands that bind their target biomolecules with high affinity and specificity is a key step in small-molecule drug discovery, but accurately predicting protein-ligand binding free energies remains challenging. Key sources of errors in the calculations include inadequate sampling of conformational space, ambiguous protonation states, and errors in force fields. Noncovalent complexes between a host molecule with a binding cavity and a druglike guest molecule have emerged as powerful model systems. As model systems, host-guest complexes reduce many of the errors in more complex protein-ligand binding systems, as their small size greatly facilitates conformational sampling, and one can choose systems that avoid ambiguities in protonation states. These features, combined with their ease of experimental characterization, make host-guest systems ideal model systems to test and ultimately optimize force fields in the context of binding thermodynamics calculations. The Open Force Field Initiative aims to create a modern, open software infrastructure for automatically generating and assessing force fields using data sets. The first force field to arise out of this effort, named SMIRNOFF99Frosst, has approximately one tenth the number of parameters, in version 1.0.5, compared to typical general small molecule force fields, such as GAFF. Here, we evaluate the accuracy of this initial force field, using free energy calculations of 43 α and β-cyclodextrin host-guest pairs for which experimental thermodynamic data are available, and compare with matched calculations using two versions of GAFF. For all three force fields, we used TIP3P water and AM1-BCC charges. The calculations are performed using the attach-pull-release (APR) method as implemented in the open source package, pAPRika. For binding free energies, the root-mean-square error of the SMIRNOFF99Frosst calculations relative to experiment is 0.9 [0.7, 1.1] kcal/mol, while the corresponding results for GAFF 1.7 and GAFF 2.1 are 0.9 [0.7, 1.1] kcal/mol and 1.7 [1.5, 1.9] kcal/mol, respectively, with 95% confidence ranges in brackets. These results suggest that SMIRNOFF99Frosst performs competitively with existing small molecule force fields and is a parsimonious starting point for optimization.

Overview of the SAMPL6 host-guest binding affinity prediction challenge

Accurately predicting the binding affinities of small organic molecules to biological macromolecules can greatly accelerate drug discovery by reducing the number of compounds that must be synthesized to realize desired potency and selectivity goals. Unfortunately, the process of assessing the accuracy of current computational approaches to affinity prediction against binding data to biological macromolecules is frustrated by several challenges, such as slow conformational dynamics, multiple titratable groups, and the lack of high-quality blinded datasets. Over the last several SAMPL blind challenge exercises, host-guest systems have emerged as a practical and effective way to circumvent these challenges in assessing the predictive performance of current-generation quantitative modeling tools, while still providing systems capable of possessing tight binding affinities. Here, we present an overview of the SAMPL6 host-guest binding affinity prediction challenge, which featured three supramolecular hosts: octa-acid (OA), the closely related tetra-endo-methyl-octa-acid (TEMOA), and cucurbit[8]uril (CB8), along with 21 small organic guest molecules. A total of 119 entries were received from ten participating groups employing a variety of methods that spanned from electronic structure and movable type calculations in implicit solvent to alchemical and potential of mean force strategies using empirical force fields with explicit solvent models. While empirical models tended to obtain better performance than first-principle methods, it was not possible to identify a single approach that consistently provided superior results across all host-guest systems and statistical metrics. Moreover, the accuracy of the methodologies generally displayed a substantial dependence on the system considered, emphasizing the need for host diversity in blind evaluations. Several entries exploited previous experimental measurements of similar host-guest systems in an effort to improve their physical-based predictions via some manner of rudimentary machine learning; while this strategy succeeded in reducing systematic errors, it did not correspond to an improvement in statistical correlation. Comparison to previous rounds of the host-guest binding free energy challenge highlights an overall improvement in the correlation obtained by the affinity predictions for OA and TEMOA systems, but a surprising lack of improvement regarding root mean square error over the past several challenge rounds. The data suggests that further refinement of force field parameters, as well as improved treatment of chemical effects (e.g., buffer salt conditions, protonation states), may be required to further enhance predictive accuracy.