Ecological function losses caused by monotonous land use induce crop raiding by wildlife on the island of Yakushima, southern Japan

A strategy for wildlife management in depopulating rural areas of Japan

Former ranges of wild animals have been reestablished in many developed countries. However, this reestablishment has led to increasing human-wildlife conflict in agroforest ecosystems. In Japan, human-wildlife conflict, such as crop raiding by and ecological impacts of wild ungulates and primates, is a serious problem in depopulated rural areas due to these animal range expansions and increased abundances. Japan's human population is predicted to decline by 24% by 2050, and approximately 20% of agricultural settlements will become completely depopulated. In this scenario, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife (e.g., hunting and habitat alteration) will continue to decrease and human-wildlife conflict will increase due to increasing wildlife recovery. Japan's local governments plan to slow range recovery, prevent species reestablishment, or remove recolonizing large mammals through lethal control. This strategy, however, is not cost-effective, and workforce shortages in depopulated communities make it infeasible. Moreover, the suppression of wildlife prevents the recovery of ecological functions and thus would degrade regional biodiversity. The declining pressure on wildlife that accompanies human depopulation will prevent the restoration of any past states of human-wildlife interaction. We suggest human-used areas in rural landscapes be aggregated in compact cities and that in transition zones between human settlements and depopulated lands that land-sharing approaches be applied. Concentrating management efforts in compact cities may effectively decrease human-wildlife conflict, rather than intensifying human pressures. Reforestation of depopulated lands may lead to recovery of wildlife habitats, their ecosystem functions, and regional biodiversity due to minimization of negative anthropogenic effects (land-sparing approach). Balancing resolution of human-wildlife conflict and ecological rewilding could become a new, challenging task for regional wildlife managers.

Estimating range expansion of wildlife in heterogeneous landscapes: A spatially explicit state-space matrix model coupled with an improved numerical integration technique

Dispersal as well as population growth is a key demographic process that determines population dynamics. However, determining the effects of environmental covariates on dispersal from spatial-temporal abundance proxy data is challenging owing to the complexity of model specification for directional dispersal permeability and the extremely high computational loads for numerical integration. In this paper, we present a case study estimating how environmental covariates affect the dispersal of Japanese sika deer by developing a spatially explicit state-space matrix model coupled with an improved numerical integration technique (Markov chain Monte Carlo with particle filters). In particular, we explored the environmental drivers of inhomogeneous range expansion, characteristic of animals with short dispersal. Our model framework successfully reproduced the complex population dynamics of sika deer, including rapid changes in densely populated areas and distribution fronts within a decade. Furthermore, our results revealed that the inhomogeneous range expansion of sika deer seemed to be primarily caused by the dispersal process (i.e., movement barriers in fragmented forests) rather than population growth. Our state-space matrix model enables the inference of population dynamics for a broad range of organisms, even those with low dispersal ability, in heterogeneous landscapes, and could address many pressing issues in conservation biology and ecosystem management.

A simple method for calculating minimum estimates of previous population sizes of wildlife from hunting records

Hunting records have proven useful for examining the historical status of wildlife populations. The number of animals harvested can provide information on past population sizes that would have been required to support harvest yields. Therefore, when statistical data on annual harvests are available, a minimum estimate of past population sizes can be calculated. A very simple method for estimating the sizes of historic wildlife populations using only annual hunting records and the maximum annual population increase rate is presented in this study. This method was applied to estimate past population sizes for Japanese sika deer (Cervus nippon yesoensis) in Hokkaido Island, Japan, using hunting records from 1873 to 1882, and assuming 15% and 35% population increase rates. The annual number of deer harvested during 1873 to 1882 ranged from 15,000 to 129,000. The minimum population size in 1873 was estimated as 349,000–473,000. This method was validated by applying it to the eastern population of Hokkaido Island in 1993 when the population size was approximately 260,000, and population sizes estimated by this method were 0.50–1.17 times the nominal population size. Thus, the population estimates from this method were approximately equal to or less than the expected population sizes, and this method can be used to obtain minimum estimates of wildlife populations. Because shorter durations of hunting records result in population size underestimates, it would be better to use hunting record of 10 years or longer in this method. In addition, the degree of underestimation may change with hunting pressure intensity on the populations, other causes of mortality, and maximum annual increase rates of the species. The method can be applied to any wildlife species for which records of annual harvest and maximum annual population increase rates of the species are available. The estimates obtained can provide benchmarks for the population size required for ecosystem conservation, and can be useful for wildlife management as they indicate the lowest limit to maintain the population.

Land abandonment and changes in snow cover period accelerate range expansions of sika deer

Ongoing climate change and land‐use change have the potential to substantially alter the distribution of large herbivores. This may result in drastic changes in ecosystems by changing plant–herbivore interactions. Here, we developed a model explaining sika deer persistence and colonization between 25 years in terms of neighborhood occupancy and habitat suitability. We used climatic, land‐use, and topographic variables to calculate the habitat suitability and evaluated the contributions of the variables to past range changes of sika deer. We used this model to predict the changes in the range of sika deer over the next 100 years under four scenario groups with the combination of land‐use change and climate change. Our results showed that both climate change and land‐use change had affected the range of sika deer in the past 25 years. Habitat suitability increased in northern or mountainous regions, which account for 71.6% of Japan, in line with a decrease in the snow cover period. Habitat suitability decreased in suburban areas, which account for 28.4% of Japan, corresponding to land‐use changes related to urbanization. In the next 100 years, the decrease in snow cover period and the increase in land abandonment were predicted to accelerate the range expansion of sika deer. Comparison of these two driving factors revealed that climate change will contribute more to range expansion, particularly from the 2070s onward. In scenarios that assumed the influence of both climate change and land‐use change, the total sika deer range increased by between +4.6% and +11.9% from the baseline scenario. Climate change and land‐use change will require additional efforts for future management of sika deer, particularly in the long term.

Feeding ecology of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) inhabiting a forest-mangrove-savanna-agricultural matrix at Caiquene-Cadique, Cantanhez National Park, Guinea-Bissau

With rising conversion of "natural" habitat to other land use such as agriculture, nonhuman primates are increasingly exploiting areas influenced by people and their activities. Despite the conservation importance of understanding the ways in which primates modify their behavior to human pressures, data are lacking, even for well-studied species. Using systematically collected data (fecal samples, feeding traces, and direct observations), we examined the diet and feeding strategies of an unhabituated chimpanzee community (Pan troglodytes verus) at Caiquene-Cadique in Guinea-Bissau that inhabit a forest-savanna-mangrove-agricultural mosaic. The chimpanzees experienced marked seasonal variations in the availability of plant foods, but maintained a high proportion of ripe fruit in the diet across months. Certain wild species were identified as important to this community including oil-palm (Elaeis guineensis) fruit and flower. Honey was frequently consumed but no other insects or vertebrates were confirmed to be eaten by this community. However, we provide indirect evidence of possible smashing and consumption of giant African snails (Achatina sp.) by chimpanzees at this site. Caiquene-Cadique chimpanzees were confirmed to feed on nine different agricultural crops, which represented 13.6% of all plant species consumed. Consumption of fruit and nonfruit crops was regular, but did not increase during periods of wild fruit scarcity. Crop consumption is an increasing and potentially problematic behavior, which can impact local people's tolerance toward wildlife. To maximize the potential success of any human-wildlife coexistence strategy (e.g., to reduce primate crop feeding), knowledge of primate behavior, as well as multifaceted social dimensions of interactions, is critical.

Effective spatial scales for evaluating environmental determinants of population density in Yakushima macaques

Population densities of wildlife species tend to be correlated with resource productivity of habitats. However, wildlife density has been greatly modified by increasing human influences. For effective conservation, we must first identify the significant factors that affect wildlife density, and then determine the extent of the areas in which the factors should be managed. Here, we propose a protocol that accomplishes these two tasks. The main threats to wildlife are thought to be habitat alteration and hunting, with increases in alien carnivores being a concern that has arisen recently. Here, we examined the effect of these anthropogenic disturbances, as well as natural factors, on the local density of Yakushima macaques (Macaca fuscata yakui). We surveyed macaque densities at 30 sites across their habitat using data from 403 automatic cameras. We quantified the effect of natural vegetation (broad-leaved forest, mixed coniferous/broad-leaved forest, etc.), altered vegetation (forestry area and agricultural land), hunting pressure, and density of feral domestic dogs (Canis familiaris). The effect of each vegetation type was analyzed at numerous spatial scales (between 150 and 3,600-m radii from the camera locations) to determine the best scale for explaining macaque density (effective spatial scale). A model-selection procedure (generalized linear mixed model) was used to detect significant factors affecting macaque density. We detected that the most effective spatial scale was 400 m in radius, a scale that corresponded to group range size of the macaques. At this scale, the amount of broad-leaved forest was selected as a positive factor, whereas mixed forest and forestry area were selected as negative factors for macaque density. This study demonstrated the importance of the simultaneous evaluation of all possible factors of wildlife population density at the appropriate spatial scale.

The impact of Sika deer on vegetation in Japan: setting management priorities on a national scale

Irreversible shifts in ecosystems caused by large herbivores are becoming widespread around the world. We analyzed data derived from the 2009-2010 Sika Deer Impact Survey, which assessed the geographical distribution of deer impacts on vegetation through a questionnaire, on a scale of 5-km grid-cells. Our aim was to identify areas facing irreversible ecosystem shifts caused by deer overpopulation and in need of management prioritization. Our results demonstrated that the areas with heavy impacts on vegetation were widely distributed across Japan from north to south and from the coastal to the alpine areas. Grid-cells with heavy impacts are especially expanding in the southwestern part of the Pacific side of Japan. The intensity of deer impacts was explained by four factors: (1) the number of 5-km grid-cells with sika deer in neighboring 5 km-grid-cells in 1978 and 2003, (2) the year sika deer were first recorded in a grid-cell, (3) the number of months in which maximum snow depth exceeded 50 cm, and (4) the proportion of urban areas in a particular grid-cell. Based on our model, areas with long-persistent deer populations, short snow periods, and fewer urban areas were predicted to be the most vulnerable to deer impact. Although many areas matching these criteria already have heavy deer impact, there are some areas that remain only slightly impacted. These areas may need to be designated as having high management priority because of the possibility of a rapid intensification of deer impact.

Wild chimpanzees show group differences in selection of agricultural crops

The ability of wild animals to respond flexibly to anthropogenic environmental changes, including agriculture, is critical to survival in human-impacted habitats. Understanding use of human foods by wildlife can shed light on the acquisition of novel feeding habits and how animals respond to human-driven land-use changes. Little attention has focused on within-species variation in use of human foods or its causes. We examined crop-feeding in two groups of wild chimpanzees – a specialist frugivore – with differing histories of exposure to agriculture. Both groups exploited a variety of crops, with more accessible crops consumed most frequently. However, crop selection by chimpanzees with long-term exposure to agriculture was more omnivorous (i.e., less fruit-biased) compared to those with more recent exposure, which ignored most non-fruit crops. Our results suggest chimpanzees show increased foraging adaptations to cultivated landscapes over time; however, local feeding traditions may also contribute to group differences in crop-feeding in this species. Understanding the dynamic responses of wildlife to agriculture can help predict current and future adaptability of species to fast-changing anthropogenic landscapes.