Structural decomposition analysis of embodied carbon in trade in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

Tele-connecting local consumption to cultivated land use and hidden drivers in China

China faces significant pressure on cultivated land resources due to the accelerated pace of urbanization in recent years. The study of embodied cultivated land offers a new perspective on alleviating pressure on cultivated land between different regions. However, the temporal dynamics characteristic and the intersectoral linkages of embodied cultivated land have rarely been systematically described. Therefore, we applied an environmental extended multi-regional input-output approach to analyze the spatial patterns and flow relationships of virtual cultivated land (VCL) between regional, provincial and sectoral scale in China from 2007 to 2017, considering both temporal and spatial dimensions. Then, we explored the hidden drivers of VCL change using structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Our results showed that trade embodied cultivated land increase by 8.5 % from 2007 to 2017. The flow trend is primarily flowed out from the less developed northwest China but with abundant cultivated land to the more developed regions of the southeast coast. Especially, in 2015, the net outflow of VCL from the northwest region reached 15.82 Mha, which was the maximum value during the study period. In addition, agricultural and construction sector were the major land consumption sector. VCL consumed by the agricultural sector declined 12.51 %, while the VCL consumed by construction sector had a significant growth in 2007-2017. Furthermore, the results of SDA revealed that cultivated land use intensity and per capita final demand were the main factors causing changes in embodied cultivated land. The results can help clarify the responsible parties for land consumption and provide a guarantee for alleviating the pressure on regional cultivated land resources.

Does the development of digital finance curb carbon emissions? Evidence from county data in China

Reducing carbon emissions is the key to fulfilling the "double carbon commitment" and promoting the green transformation of the economy. The financial sector is the forerunner of change in economic development. The rapid development of digital finance has disrupted the traditional financial operation mode and has had a significant impact on economic development and environmental quality. This paper explores the impact of digital finance development on carbon emissions using carbon emission data from 2011 to 2017 in China's counties and combining it with the Digital Inclusive Finance Index of Peking University. The findings are as follows: (1) The development of digital finance can curb carbon emissions, and this causal relationship still holds through a series of robustness tests. The greater the carbon emissions, the better the carbon suppression effect of the development of digital finance. (2) When regions face strict financial regulation and environmental constraints, the development of digital finance can be more effective in reducing carbon emissions. The existence of a digital divide in general can weaken the disincentive effect of the development of digital finance on carbon emissions. (3) The development of digital finance can promote the development of green finance, enhance the level of green technological innovation, improve green total factor productivity, and transform energy structures, thus curbing carbon emissions. This paper not only enriches the literature on the development of digital finance and the environment but also provides a reference for government departments to improve the development strategy of digital finance and achieve "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality."

Matching degree of embodied carbon trade and value-added trade among Chinese provinces (regions)

This paper constructs a matching index model to research the matching degree of embodied carbon trade and value-added trade among eight regions and 31 provinces in China in 2012 and 2015. The study finds that (1) At the regional level, a mismatch is shown between embodied carbon trade and value-added trade among regions, for example, in 2015, the northwest region has output embodied carbon to the north coast, while input the value-added trades from the north coast. (2) At the provincial level, a mismatch is displayed between embodied carbon transaction and value-added trade, for example, Beijing had a net shift of embodied carbon from Xinjiang in 2015, but Xinjiang had a net transfer of added value from Beijing. Therefore, the Chinese government needs to establish an ecological compensation mechanism to improve the mismatch between embodied carbon trade and value-added trade among Chinese regions (provinces).

Driving forces of China's provincial bilateral carbon emissions and the redefinition of corresponding responsibilities

The carbon transfers caused by inter-provincial commodity flows account for about 35 % of the total carbon emissions in China. There are great differences between the production-side and consumption-side carbon emissions for each province. Therefore, under the constraints of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, bilateral carbon emissions management is crucial to mitigate carbon emissions and the driving forces of bilateral carbon emissions must first be identified. Based on China's inter-provincial input-output data and carbon emissions data released by China Emissions Accounts and Datasets (CEADs), this paper uses a multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) to calculate the bilateral carbon emissions in 30 China's provinces from 2007 to 2017 and then apply structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to measure the influencing factors of these emissions. We also use counterfactual analysis to investigate the adjustment of provincial responsibilities for carbon emissions. The results show that the provinces in central and northern China undertake major net carbon inflows from other provinces in the eastern and southern coastal region. According to the results of SDA, the technological effect is an important factor in curbing the bilateral carbon emissions and the demand effect promotes the bilateral carbon emissions, but their contribution rates show a downward trend. By contrast, the variation in structural effect has significantly restrictive effects on the bilateral carbon emissions. Based on the provincial contribution to emissions mitigation, the adjusted consumption-side carbon emission embodies the principle of "more emission reduction, more compensation". We suggest implementing differentiated bilateral carbon emission management, taking the adjusted consumption-side carbon emission as the evaluation standard, and promoting inter-provincial carbon compensation.

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Improvement Measures of Embodied Carbon Emissions in Interprovincial Trade for Coal Energy Supply Bases: Case Study of Anhui, China

On account of the long-term dependence on energy trade and the phenomenon of embodied carbon emissions in interprovincial trade (ECEs-IPT), energy supply bases (ESBs) in the economic integration regions (EIRs) are under unprecedented dual pressure of achieving carbon emissions (CEs) reduction targets and ensuring security and stability of the energy supply. This problem has attracted more and more attention and research by experts and scholars. This paper took Anhui, the coal ESB of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), as an example and took the key stage of rapid development of regional economic integration (REI) and accelerated the realization of CEs reduction targets in YREB from 2007 to 2017 as the study period. From the perspectives of regions and industry sectors, we calculated the transfer amount of ECEs-IPT in Anhui among the YREB, analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of ECEs-IPT, and revealed the industrial characteristics of ECEs-IPT. Then, we classified the industry sectors and proposed the direction of industrial improvement measures. The results showed that, during the decade, the amount of provinces undertaking the net ECEs-IPT outflow from Anhui increased significantly and spatially expanded from only Jiangxi Province to almost all of the YREB. In addition, 39.77% of the net ECEs-IPT outflow of Anhui was concentrated in petroleum processing, coking, and nuclear fuel processing (RefPetraol), metal smelting and rolling processing (MetalSmelt), and electricity and heat production and supply (ElectpowerProd) that trade with Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi. The analytical model and results will provide a useful reference for the global similar coal ESBs, especially the coal ESBs within the EIRs, to formulate improvement measures for regions or even the world to ensure stability of the energy supply and achieve regional CEs reduction targets.

Multidimensional Impact of Urbanization Process on Regional Net CO2 Emissions: Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an Example

Urbanization is a powerful symbol and an inevitable human economic and social development trend. This process affects carbon dioxide emissions by changing the human output and lifestyle and encroaches over the carbon sink areas by adjusting the land use types impacting the regional carbon balance. We systematically analyzed the influence of urbanization on regional net CO2 emissions (NCE) and built a quantitative model for the impact of urbanization on NCE based on population, economy, and land use. Based on this, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) in China has been selected as an example to measure the characteristics of the spatial and temporal evolution of NCE from 2005 to 2018 by empirically testing the contributions of population urbanization, economic urbanization, and land urbanization to the NCE changes in YREB. According to the study’s findings, the carbon-neutral pressure index of the YREB increased over the study period, with an increase in NCE from 1706.50 Mt to 3106.05 Mt. The contribution of urbanization in this process increased and subsequently decreased in an inverted U pattern with a drop in the cumulative net emission of 260.32 Mt. The inflection points of the cumulative impact of urbanization on NCE in the midstream and upstream regions occurred in 2011 and 2010, respectively. Due to the high degree of urbanization and economic growth in the downstream area, the urbanization impact demonstrated a constant reduction of NCE over the research period. In terms of sub-dimensions, the population and land urbanization effects were consistently positive, while the economic urbanization affected the NCE and displayed an inverted U pattern during the study period. If the variation in regional carbon sink space is ignored, the impact of urbanization on CO2 emission reduction will be overestimated. We investigated the realization path of differentiated synergistic emission reduction strategies in the great river economic belts based on the empirical study on YREB.

The socioeconomic factors of investment-induced petroleum consumption: case of fast developing Chinese economy

Capital investment stimulates a sizable portion of petroleum consumption, especially in emerging economies. However, investment-embedded petroleum consumption (IEPC) and the socioeconomic factors that influence it are not well studied. Our study's objective is to close this research gap. Our article estimates the effects of petroleum intensity, technology, investment structure, and economic development on China's IEPC using input-output and bipolar structural decomposition analysis. Additionally, our article develops a previously mostly unknown index of investment intensity. The findings indicated that, on average, between 1990 and 2016, investment induced nearly 30% of China's total final demand-embedded petroleum consumption. On average, petroleum intensity had the most significant decreasing effect on the Chinese IEPC. Averagely, technology had a positive impact, but from 2010 to 2016, it had a noticeable negative impact (- 1.51 exajoule). Both investment intensity and economic development had a significant upward effect. The impact of investment intensity was the smallest of all the factors. Disaggregation of the effects of socio-economic factors at the sectoral level revealed distinct patterns. Thus, by focusing on the socioeconomic dynamics of key sectors, the factors' current decreasing effects can be maximized, and their increasing effects minimized.

Environmental implications of economic transformation in China's Pearl River Delta region: Dynamics at four nested geographical scales over 1987-2017

Environmental pollution in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is largely driven by socioeconomic forces outside the region as vast majority of manufacturing products produced in the region are destined to national and international markets. Given the remarkable economic transformation of the PRD in the past decades, this study investigates the impacts of local, provincial, national, and global socio-economic drivers on PRD's pollution dynamics under the background of significant economic restructuring and upgrading from 1987 to 2017. The results indicate that changes in pollution pattern were deeply shaped by the economic transformation. The share of PRD's emissions driven by international exports expanded significantly before 2007 as a result of the fast growth of international exports. The transformation of economic growth to domestic consumption driven model since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis had resulted in an increasing contribution share to the PRD's environmental pollution from local demand and trade with Rest of China (RoC). Similarly, as final demand structure evolving towards the high value-added manufacturing and services, the share of emissions driven by low value-added manufacturing (LVM) demand had decreased by an enlarged margin, while that driven by high value-added manufacturing (HVM) demand and services demand had moved in the opposite direction. The structural decomposition analysis shows that reduction in emission intensity remains the most effective way in pollution alleviation. The contribution of changes in production input structure also shifted from a strong impetus force before 2007 to a mitigating force afterwards due to significant technological progresses in the industrial sectors since the global financial crisis. With the marginal cost of reducing emission intensity becoming prohibitively expensive, the optimization of production structure and consumption pattern is likely to play more important role in future emission mitigation.

A Hybrid Framework for Direct CO2 Emissions Quantification in China's Construction Sector

Carbon emission quantifications in China are not consistent, with many standards and methods having been used over the years. This study identified the non-consideration of China-specific technology and databases as a factor limiting comprehensive quantification. The study aimed to comprehensively quantify regional direct CO₂ emission in the industry using a hybrid of economic and environmental data. We retrieved nineteen (19) sets of fossil fuel and electricity data from provincial energy yearbooks between 1997 and 2015 for the study. To generate regression models for each of the six regional construction industries in China, the study further integrated the results with three sets of econometric data: total annual construction output, cement, and steel product yearly consumption data. The study identified the North China region as the main source of direct CO₂ emission with over 30%, while Southeast China contributed the least. While there is a gradual shift to other energy sources, the study identified coal and crude oil to remain as the main energy sources in the industry. Cement and steel data exhibited a significant predictive relationship with CO₂ emissions in five regional construction industries. The study identified the need to have policies tailored to technological improvements to enhance renewable energy generation and usage in the industry. The models developed in this study could be used to generate initial quantifications of carbon emissions in construction industries with similar carbon-emitting characteristics for carbon tracking, and energy policies for decision making. However, the three economic indicators used in the study could be extended to generate more robust models in future research.

Inter-regional economic spillover and carbon productivity embodied in trade: empirical study from the Pan-Yangtze River Delta Region

How to promote the carbon productivity embodied in trade and regional balanced development has become the focus of attention to combat climate change and improve regional management. Taking the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region for example and based on the input-output model, this paper explored the relationship between inter-industry economic spillover and embodied carbon productivity in trade from 2007 to 2012. Results indicated that the intra-regional multiplier effect presented a slow downward trend during the studied period, while the trend in the inter-regional integration was intensifying. Moreover, the multiplier effect of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River was relatively lower than that of the middle reaches. Owing to the geographical location and industrial structure, the industries in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were strongly correlated. In addition, the regional multiplier effect was mostly concentrated in industries with high carbon emission intensity. The economic spillovers between regions showed a growing trend from 2007 to 2012, indicating that regional economic integration was further strengthened, and the economic spillovers in the Yangtze River Delta region were significantly higher than those in the middle reaches. Furthermore, from the perspective of embodied carbon productivity in trade, most of Shanghai's carbon productivity to other regions was mostly less than 10,000 Yuan per ton, which means Shanghai had little demand for intermediate products of other regions, and inter-regional trade between Shanghai and other regions brought less total output and more environmental pollution to other regions, while Shanghai obtained more total output through trade. As embodied carbon productivity in trade in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was more than 10,000 Yuan per ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang had played an important role in realizing the coordinated development of low carbon in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta. In particular, for Anhui and Jiangxi, embodied carbon productivity in the Yangtze River Delta region was relatively low. Therefore, in order to achieve green, coordinated, and high-quality economic development in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region, Anhui and Jiangxi should not only strengthen regional cooperation with Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, but also they should avoid regional zero-sum game competition in regional climate policy. In other words, for policy-makers in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta, promoting the deep integration of industrial chain and regional coordinated development, and thus, improving carbon productivity during the regional development process, should receive more attention.

Study on the measurement and the changing trend of the energy use of China's economic sectors: based on cross-region input-output model

The consumption of fossil energy is the major cause of environmental pollution. Effectively reducing the fossil energy use has important significance for achieving China's green development targets. The premise for reducing fossil energy use is accurately measuring the amount of energy use and identifying the key sectors and links of energy use of China's economic sectors. This paper, by establishing a cross-region input-output model, measured the amount of energy use from the perspective of embodied energy, explored the changing trend of energy use between 2002 and 2015, and identified the key sectors and links of energy use. The results show that the embodied energy intensities of China's economic sectors are generally higher than the world average level, but its changing trend is declining. Although the amount of energy use shows a growth trend, the growth rate manifests a decline process. The key sectors of energy use assemble in the resource sector and heavy industry sector. The key link is intermediate use, but about 80% of embodied energy of intermediate use has been used by downstream sectors. Approximately 76% of the embodied energy of final demand has been used by gross fixed capital formation and urban residents' consumption. China has turned from a net exporter of embodied energy to a net importer since 2012. There is a resource mismatch in China's import and export structure of embodied energy.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Transferring via Trade: Influencing Factors and Policy Implications

Global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) from anthropogenic activities have already become the focus of the world. A more systematic and comprehensive analysis on the factors influencing the changes of global GHGs transferring via trade have not been fully discussed. To this end, employing spatial econometric regression models and multi-regional input-output models, this paper reveals factors influencing the GHGs transferring via trade changes in 39 major economies, so as to develop the relevant GHGs reduction policies. The results indicate that regions with the highest net outflow of GHGs transferring via trade are primarily Russia and Canada, and the adverse effects of promoting GHGs reduction on the national economy could be avoided by these regions owing to trade relations. Additionally, factors influencing the changes in GHGs transferring via trade have significant spatial autocorrelation, and population size and energy structure exert significant spatial spillover effects on the changes in the GHGs transferring via trade. On this basis, this paper suggests that one more effective way to prevent trade from the rigorous demands of environmental governance measures while preserving the economic benefits of international trade may be to facilitate cooperation between countries on GHGs mitigation. Further, we articulate more balanced environment governance policies, including conducting the sharing of advanced energy technologies and developing clearer production technologies.

The CO2 emission changes in China's transportation sector during 1992-2015: a structural decomposition analysis

Based on a structural decomposition approach, the present paper simultaneously analyzes seven driving factors and forty sectors, which contribute to CO₂ emission changes for China's transportation sector during 1992-2015. Based on the analysis of the driving factors, the total output and the energy intensity are found to be the primary positive and negative factor, respectively. From the sector analysis, top five sectors causing the increase of the transportation CO₂ emissions are identified. Particularly, information transmission, computer services and software sector (no. 28); construction sector (no. 26); transportation sector (no. 27); chemical sector (no. 12); and leasing and business service sector (no. 33) are the five most relevant contributions to the increase of CO₂ emissions of the transportation sector during 2002-2015. As a view to suppress CO₂ emission growth, besides the promotion of public transportation, low-carbon emission energy, and energy-saving technologies, policymakers should pay attention to the impacts of key sectors on transportation.

The Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Trade: A Systematic Literature Review

In line with the development of international trade, environmental concerns have arisen as a global problem. International trade has the potential to increase environmental externalities such as transboundary pollution, deforestation, transportation and production relocation avoiding environmental standards. The share of agricultural goods in total export reached 15% in 2017. Since 2002, the proportion of unprocessed agricultural products have more than doubled, while the volume of processed goods in global trade has tripled. Despite the importance of agricultural trade worldwide, the number of studies exploring the trade-agriculture-environment nexus has so far been limited. This paper aims to provide an overview of the environmental impacts of agricultural trade based on the international economics literature published in recent years by way of a systematic literature review. Results suggest that most recent environmental studies do not view extended trade or trade liberalization in agriculture favourably. Only a limited number of papers state that a country or countries’ environment could benefit from agricultural trade, and only a few researchers have found that agricultural trade did not have any significant influence at all, or have instead found the effects on the environment to be ambiguous. Finally, the research reveals the most important consequences of pollution and offers potential solutions.