Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of a FRAX model for Uzbekistan

Bidirectional association between cardiovascular disease and hip fracture: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to comprehensively analyze the bidirectional association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and hip fracture (HF).

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Sciences, Cochrane Library, ScienceDirect and China National Knowledge Infrastructure for relevant studies. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used to evaluate the risk of bias. We conducted random effects model for meta-analysis and subgroup analysis of different ethnic groups. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias of this study were also evaluated. This study followed the PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines for systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

RESULTS

This research included 18 cohort studies and case-control studies with a total sample of 1,854,441 individuals. The results showed ischemic heart disease might increase the risk of HF (OR = 1.41, 95%CI[1.05, 1.89], I2 = 96%). Stroke might be a risk factor for HF (OR = 2.23, 95%[1.18, 4.19], I2 = 97%), and HF might likewise be a risk factor for Stroke ( OR = 2.22, 95% CI [1.81, 2.71], I2 = 78%). Heart failure might increase the risk of HF (OR = 2.89, 95%CI [1.22, 6.85], I2 = 91%), and HF might increase the risk of heart failure (OR = 2.74, 95%CI [1.27, 5.89], I2 = 92%). Hypertension might increase the risk of HF (OR = 1.55, 95%CI[1.34, 1.8], I2 = 87%), and HF might increase the risk of hypertension (OR = 3.75, 95%CI[3.3, 4.26], I2 = 98%). Cerebrovascular disease (OR = 1.96, 95%CI[1.61, 2.4], I2 = 79%) and diseases of arteries, arterioles, and capillaries (OR = 1.58, 95%CI[1.49, 1.68], I2 = 0%) might increase the risk of HF. HF might increase the risk of myocardial infarction (OR = 2, 95%CI[1.17, 3.41], I2 = 97%) and CVD-related death (OR = 1.78, 95%CI[1.05, 3.02], I2 = 50%). Subgroup analyses showed that among Asians IHD might not raise the risk of HF (OR = 1.33, 95% CI [1.00, 1.78], I2 = 95%). In caucasians, IHD might also not raise HF risk (OR = 1.52, 95%CI [0.64, 4.56], I2 = 95%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports possible bidirectional associations between CVD and HF, but more mechanistic studies of CVD and HF were warranted. However, high heterogeneity and potential confounding by unmeasured variables warrant cautious interpretation.

Risk factors and characteristics of preoperative heart failure in elderly patients with hip fracture and the influence of anemia on prognosis

BACKGROUND

Patients with preoperative acute heart failure (AHF) after hip fracture in the elderly have a worse prognosis. We aim to investigate the characteristics, risk factors and postoperative complications of elderly patients with hip fracture complicated with preoperative AHF. We also looked at the effect of the severity of anemia at admission on the prognosis of the above people.

METHODS

A retrospective study of hip fracture patients (aged ≥ 65) admitted to the Department of Geriatric Orthopaedics, Third Hospital, Hebei Medical University, was conducted from January 2018 to October 2020. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression to assess risk factors for preoperative AHF. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve shows the relationship between the severity of anemia on admission and all-cause mortality in elderly hip fracture patients with preoperative AHF.

RESULTS

Out of the 1092 patients, 503 had preoperative AHF and the incidence of it in hip fracture patients was 46.1%. Age, coronary artery disease, chronic atrial fibrillation, Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI), admission anemia, admission albumin < 40 g/dl, and admission C-reactive protein (CRP) were all significantly different between those with AHF and those without. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥ 80 years (OR 1.740, 95% CI 1.309-2.313), coronary artery disease (OR 1.417, 95% CI 1.017-1.975), chronic atrial fibrillation (OR 4.010, 95% CI 1.757-9.152), admission anemia (OR 1.433, 95% CI 1.051-1.953) are the independent risk factors for preoperative AHF in elderly patients with hip fracture (p < 0.05). The HF group exhibited a higher incidence of postoperative complications, such as anemia, arrhythmia, NOAF (new-onset atrial fibrillation), AIS (acute ischemic stroke), electrolyte disturbance and hypoproteinemia. The moderate-to-severe anemia group had a higher incidence of postoperative complications, including deep vein thrombosis of the lower limbs, NOAF, and hypoproteinemia, as well as all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

Older patients combined with admission anemia, coronary artery disease, chronic atrial fibrillation are more likely to have preoperative AHF after hip fracture. For such patients, early and effective identification and strengthening perioperative management can avoid the occurrence of adverse events. For patients with moderate and severe anemia at admission, timely intervention is recommended to reduce postoperative complications and mortality.

Reverse engineering the FRAX algorithm: Clinical insights and systematic analysis of fracture risk

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) is a computational tool developed to predict the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture based on inputs of patient characteristics, bone mineral density (BMD), and a set of seven clinical risk factors. While the FRAX tool is widely available and clinically validated, its underlying algorithm is not public. The relative contribution and necessity of each input parameter to the final FRAX score is unknown. We systematically collected hip fracture risk scores from the online FRAX calculator for osteopenic Caucasian women across 473,088 unique inputs. This dataset was used to dissect the FRAX algorithm and construct a reverse-engineered fracture risk model to assess the relative contribution of each input variable. Within the reverse-engineered model, age and T-Score were the strongest contributors to hip fracture risk, while BMI had marginal contribution. Of the clinical risk factors, parent history of fracture and ongoing glucocorticoid treatment had the largest additive effect on risk score. A generalized linear model largely recapitulated the FRAX tool with an R2 of 0.91. Observed effect sizes were then compared to a true patient population by creating a logistic regression model of the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) cohort, which closely paralleled the effect sizes seen in the reverse-engineered fracture risk model. Analysis identified several clinically relevant observations of interest to FRAX users. The role of major osteoporotic fracture risk prediction in contributing to an indication of treatment need is very narrow, as the hip fracture risk prediction accounted for 98% of treatment indications for the SOF cohort. Removing any risk factor from the model substantially decreased its accuracy and confirmed that more parsimonious models are not ideal for fracture prediction. For women 65 years and older with a previous fracture, 98% of FRAX combinations exceeded the treatment threshold, regardless of T-score or other factors. For women age 70+ with a parent history of fracture, 99% of FRAX combinations exceed the treatment threshold. Based on these analyses, we re-affirm the efficacy of the FRAX as the best tool for fracture risk assessment and provide deep insight into the interplay between risk factors.

The risk factors of heart failure in elderly patients with hip fracture: what should we care

BACKGROUND

Heart failure is a common adverse postoperative complication in elderly patients. It is necessary to explore the risk factors of heart after the operation of elderly patients with hip fracture during hospitalization.

METHODS

Patients with hip fractures admitted to our hospital from January 1, 2019 to December 31 2020 were included, all the patients received internal fixation surgery. The characteristics of patients with and without postoperative heart failure were compared. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to analyze the risk factors of heart failure in elderly patients with hip fracture.

RESULTS

A total of 283 patients with hip fractures were included, the incidence of heart failure was 12.37 %. There were significant differences in the age, hypertension, anemia hypoalbuminemia and duration of surgery between heart failure and no heart failure group(all p < 0.05). There were no significant differences in the gender, BMI, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, history of heart failure, cognitive dysfunction, type of fracture, preoperative oxygen saturation, white blood cell count, platelet count, red blood cell count, creatinine, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and estimated blood loss during surgery between heart failure and no heart failure group(all p > 0.05). Logistic regression analyses indicated that age ≥ 70y(OR2.446, 95% CI1.044 ~ 4.149), hypertension(OR2.152, 95% CI1.125 ~ 4.023), anemia(OR3.094, 95% CI1.294 ~ 5.907), hypoalbuminemia(OR2.377, 95% CI1.205 ~ 4.537), duration of surgery ≥ 120 min(OR1.683, 95% CI1.094 ~ 2.782) were the risk factors of heart failure in elderly patients with hip fracture(all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of postoperative heart failure in elderly patients with hip fracture is relatively high, which is the result of a combination of high-risk factors. Peri-period risk assessment and prevention of related risks are the keys to a good prognosis for patients.

Current status and distribution of hip fractures among older adults in China

China is a middle-risk country for hip fracture at present, which differs from previous data that it was low-risk. By 2050, the total number of hip fractures in people older than 65 years is predicted to be 1.3 million.

INTRODUCTION

To assess hip fracture incidence in China and examine the heterogeneity of hip fracture in seven geographical regions of China.

METHODS

There were 238,230 hip fracture patients aged 65 years or older from 2013 to 2016 from a large national in-patients database (HQMS) involving 30.6 million hospitalizations. Taking into account the total national hospitalization rate per calendar year, we estimated the incidence of hip fracture per 100,000 residents older than 65 years in China overall and in seven geographical Chinese regions.

RESULTS

The proportion of men and women older than 65 years with hip fractures was 1.00:1.95. Between 2013 and 2016, the number of hip fractures per 100,000 people age 65+ was 278. China has vast territories; the number of hip fractures per 100,000 people over 65 years old was 202 in Northeast China and 374 in Northwest China. Northwest has higher altitude, lower population density, is less developed with lower urbanization than Northeast China which is low altitude, and highly urbanized.

CONCLUSIONS

China should no longer be regarded as a low-risk country for hip fracture. By 2050, the total number of hip fractures in people older than 65 years in China is predicted to be 1.3 million. Higher altitude areas had higher hip fracture rates than lower altitude, higher urbanized areas.

FRAX-based intervention thresholds in eight Eurasian countries: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, the Russian Federation, and Uzbekistan

Age-specific intervention and assessment thresholds based on FRAX® were developed for eight Eurasian countries participating in the EVA study (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and Uzbekistan). The intervention thresholds (major osteoporotic fracture) ranged from 3.6 (Armenia and Georgia) to 12.3% (Uzbekistan) for people at age 50 years, and from 16 (Armenia) to 27% (Belarus) at the age of 90 years. These thresholds enable a substantial advance in the ease of detection of individuals at high fracture risk.

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study was to derive and compare FRAX-based intervention and BMD assessment thresholds for 8 Eurasian countries in the EVA study.

METHODS

The intervention threshold (IT) was set at a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), calculated without BMD, equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors, and a body mass index (BMI) of 25.0 kg/m². The lower assessment threshold was set at a 10-year probability of a MOF in women with BMI of 25.0 kg/m², without previous fracture or other clinical risk factors. The upper assessment threshold was set at 1.2 times the IT.

RESULTS

The age-specific intervention thresholds ranged from 3.6 (Armenia and Georgia) to 12.3% (Uzbekistan) for men and women at the age of 50 years and from 16 (Armenia) to 27% (Belarus) at the age of 90 years. The difference between countries was most evident at younger ages and become progressively less with advancing age.

CONCLUSIONS

For the 8 Eurasian countries, the newly established FRAX-based intervention thresholds provide an opportunity to improve the clinical detection of both men and women with a high risk of fracture and improve treatment rates.

Epidemiology of hip fracture in Botswana

A retrospective population-based survey in the Republic of Botswana determined the incidence of fractures at the hip over 3 years. The estimated number of such fractures nationwide for 2020 was 103 and is predicted to increase.

OBJECTIVE

This article describes the epidemiology of hip fractures in the Republic of Botswana.

METHODS

A retrospective patient chart review was conducted to identify from hospital registers the number of patients diagnosed with hip fracture in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture was determined from which lifetime probabilities and future projections for hip fracture were calculated.

RESULTS

The incidence of hip fracture was low and comparable to rates reported from Tunisia. The remaining lifetime risk of hip fracture at the age of 50 years in men and women was 1.4 and 1.1%, respectively. The incidence of hip fracture suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2020 was 103 and is predicted to increase by more than threefold to 372 in 2050.

CONCLUSION

The hip fracture rates can be used for healthcare planning. Additionally, these data can be used to create a FRAX model to help guide decisions about treatment.

Report on the Audit on Burden of Osteoporosis in Eight Countries of the Eurasian Region: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and Uzbekistan

The audit provides a detailed analysis of the burden of osteoporosis and differences between Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and Uzbekistan with regard to prevalence of osteoporosis and incidence of osteoporotic fractures, future demographic changes, diagnostic resources, and treatment availability.

PURPOSE

This paper describes the results of the Audit on Burden of Osteoporosis in Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and Uzbekistan.

METHODS

We carried out a review of the available literature and a survey of the representatives of the national osteoporosis societies. All the information available in English, Russian, or national languages including the publications of local or regional importance was analyzed.

RESULTS

The expected number of osteoporosis patients varies from 240,000 in Armenia to 16 million in Russia. Low-energy fractures are a serious health problem in all countries with the highest incidence in Kazakhstan and Russia. The rate of hip fracture patients' hospitalization in the majority of countries is low (33-80%). In the coming decades the populations, in particular, in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, will continue to show increases in life expectancy with a corresponding increase in the number of fractures in older people. Thus, in 2050, the number of hip fractures in these countries will increase by 2.5-3.5 times. However, the availability of DXA devices in the region is low (0.2-1.3 per million), and DXA tests are expensive. Almost all modern treatments for osteoporosis are available, but the costs are high even for alendronate. Urgent action is needed at the national level in each country including recognition of osteoporosis as a priority health issue.

CONCLUSION

Osteoporosis is an important health problem in the countries of the Eurasian region that will only get worse in the future due to expected demographic changes.