A risk score model to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with end-stage renal disease and acute myocardial infarction

Predictors on outcomes of cardiovascular disease of male patients in Malaysia using Bayesian network analysis

OBJECTIVES

Despite extensive advances in medical and surgical treatment, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Identifying the significant predictors will help clinicians with the prognosis of the disease and patient management. This study aims to identify and interpret the dependence structure between the predictors and health outcomes of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) male patients in Malaysian setting.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry years 2006-2013, which consists of 18 hospitals across the country.

PARTICIPANTS

7180 male patients diagnosed with STEMI from the NCVD-ACS registry.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

A graphical model based on the Bayesian network (BN) approach has been considered. A bootstrap resampling approach was integrated into the structural learning algorithm to estimate probabilistic relations between the studied features that have the strongest influence and support.

RESULTS

The relationships between 16 features in the domain of CVD were visualised. From the bootstrap resampling approach, out of 250, only 25 arcs are significant (strength value ≥0.85 and the direction value ≥0.50). Age group, Killip class and renal disease were classified as the key predictors in the BN model for male patients as they were the most influential variables directly connected to the outcome, which is the patient status. Widespread probabilistic associations between the key predictors and the remaining variables were observed in the network structure. High likelihood values are observed for patient status variable stated alive (93.8%), Killip class I on presentation (66.8%), patient younger than 65 (81.1%), smoker patient (77.2%) and ethnic Malay (59.2%). The BN model has been shown to have good predictive performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The data visualisation analysis can be a powerful tool to understand the relationships between the CVD prognostic variables and can be useful to clinicians.

The impact of end-stage kidney disease on mortality in patients after acute myocardial infarction: A nationwide study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) on mortality in patients with first-time acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

METHODS

This was a retrospective nationwide cohort study. Patients diagnosed with first-time AMI between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2012, were included. All patients were followed-up until death or December 31, 2012, whichever occurred first. A one-to-one propensity score matching technique was used to match patients with ESKD to those without ESKD of similar sex, age, comorbidities, and coronary intervention (including percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI] and coronary artery bypass grafting [CABG]). Kaplan-Meier cumulative survival curves were constructed to compare AMI patients with and without ESKD.

RESULTS

A total of 186 112 patients were enrolled and 8056 patients with ESKD were identified. Propensity score matched 8056 patients without ESKD were included in the comparison. Overall, the 12-year mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with ESKD than in those without ESKD (log-rank p < 0.0001), including the sex, age, and PCI and CABG subgroups. In Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis, ESKD was an independent risk factor for mortality after patients suffered from first-time AMI (hazard ratio, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.70-1.84; p < 0.0001). A forest plot for subgroup analysis revealed that in AMI patients, ESKD had a higher impact on mortality in male; younger age; without comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular accident, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and receiving PCI and CABG subgroups.

CONCLUSION

ESKD significantly increases the mortality risk in patients with first-time AMI, including both sexes, different ages, and whether PCI or CABG was performed. In patients with AMI, ESKD has a high impact on mortality in male, younger age, without comorbidities, and those undergoing PCI and CABG.

Prognostic value of plasma phenylalanine and gut microbiota-derived metabolite phenylacetylglutamine in coronary in-stent restenosis

Objective

This study was designed to explore the predictive value of plasma phenylalanine (Phe) and gut microbiota-derived metabolite phenylacetylglutamine (PAGln) in coronary in-stent restenosis (ISR).

Methods

Patients with coronary ISR, in-stent hyperplasia (ISH), and in-stent patency (ISP) were retrospectively enrolled in this study. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors of ISR. The predictive value of plasma Phe and PAGln levels was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) were compared using the Z-test. The correlation between PAGln and clinical characteristics were examined using Spearman's correlation analysis.

Results

Seventy-two patients (mean age, 64.74 ± 9.47 years) were divided into three groups according to coronary stent patency: ISR (n = 28), ISH (n = 11), and ISP (n = 33) groups. The plasma levels of Phe and PAGln were significantly higher in the ISR group than in the ISP group. PAGln was positively associated with the erythrocyte sedimentation rate, homocysteine, SYNTAX score, triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein ratio, Phe, and microbiota-related intermediate metabolite phenylacetic acid (PA). In the ISR group, with the aggravation of restenosis, PAGln levels were also elevated. In multivariate regression analyses, Phe, PAGln and SYNTAX score were independent predictors of coronary ISR (all P < 0.05). In the ROC curve analyses, both Phe [AUC = 0.732; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.606–0.858; P = 0.002] and PAGln (AUC = 0.861; 95% CI, 0.766–0.957; P < 0.001) had good discrimination performance in predicting coronary ISR, and the predictive power of PAGln was significantly better (P = 0.031).

Conclusion

Plasma Phe and PAGln are valuable indices for predicting coronary ISR, and gut microbes may be a promising intervention target to prevent ISR progression.

D-dimer for risk stratification and antithrombotic treatment management in acute coronary syndrome patients: asystematic review and metanalysis

BACKGROUND

Data on the prognostic role of D-dimer in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are controversial. Our aim was to summarize current evidence on the association between D-dimer levels and short/long-term poor prognosis of ACS patients. We also investigated the association between D-dimer and no-reflow phenomenon.

METHODS

Systematic review and metanalysis of observational studies including ACS patients and reporting data on D-dimer levels. PubMed and SCOPUS databases were searched. Data were combined with hazard ratio (HR) and metanalysed. The principal endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular events (CVEs) including myocardial infarction, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

RESULTS

Overall, 32 studies included in the systematic review with 28,869 patients. Of them, 6 studies investigated in-hospital and 26 studies long-term outcomes. Overall, 23 studies showed positive association of high D-dimer levels with CVEs. D-dimer levels predicted poor prognosis in all studies reporting in-hospital outcomes. Five studies satisfied inclusion criteria and were included in the metanalysis, with a total of 8616 patients. Median follow-up was 13.2 months with 626 CVEs. The pooled HR for D-dimer levels and CVEs was 1.264 (95% CI 1.134-1.409). Five out of 7 studies (4195 STEMI patients) investigating the association between D-dimer levels and no-reflow showed a positive correlation of D-dimer levels with no-reflow.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ACS, D-dimer was associated with higher in-hospital and short/long-term complications. D-dimer was also higher in patients with no-reflow phenomenon. The use of D-dimer may help to identify patients with residual thrombotic risk after ACS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The review protocol was registered in PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews: CRD42021267233 .