Sex Offender Risk Assessment: Where Are We and Where Are We Going?

Same Score, Different Audience, Different Message: Perceptions of Sex Offense Risk Depend on Static-99R Risk Level and Personality Factors of the Recipient

There are multiple ways to report risk scale results. Varela et al. (2014) found that Static-99R results were interpreted differently by prospective jurors based on risk level (high vs low) and an interaction between risk level and risk communication format (categorical, absolute estimate, and risk ratio). We adapted and extended Varela et al.'s (2014) study using updated Static-99R norms, recruiting a population-wide sample (n = 166), and adding variables assessing the personality factors 'cognitive motivation' (i.e., need for cognition) and 'attitudinal affect' (i.e., attitudes toward sex offenders, authoritarianism). We found a main effect of risk level and no effect of either communication format or the interaction between the two. Adding the personality variables increased explained variance from 9% to 34%, suggesting risk perception may be more about the personality of the person receiving the information than the information itself. We also found an interaction between attitudes toward sex offenders and risk level. Our results suggest risk perception might be better understood if personality factors are considered, particularly attitudes toward sex offenders. Because biases/personality of the person receiving the information are unknown in real world settings we argue that sharing multiple methods for communicating risk might be best and more inclusive.

Consistency and Construct Validity of the Five-Level System for Risk Communication Using Static and Dynamic Tools: An Investigation Using the Static-99R and VRS-SO

This study examined the Council of State Governments' five-level system for risk communication, as applied to the Static-99R and Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense Version (VRS-SO). Aims of the system include increasing consistency in risk communication and linking risk categories to psychologically meaningful constructs. We investigated concordance between risk levels assigned by the instruments, and distributions of VRS-SO dynamic needs associated with Static-99R risk levels, among a multisite sample (n = 1,404) of persons who have sexually offended. Concordant categorical risk ratings were assigned in just over a third of cases, suggesting that consistency remains a concern with the system, particularly when conceptually disparate tools are applied. Densities of criminogenic needs varied widely among persons assigned the same risk level by the Static-99R and diverged from the descriptions ascribed by the system. These findings can inform clinical assessments and further refinement of the system.

Grievance-fueled sexual violence

The grievance fueled violence paradigm encompasses various forms of targeted violence but has not yet been extended to the theoretical discussion of sexual violence. In this article, we argue that a wide range of sexual offenses can be usefully conceptualized as forms of grievance fueled violence. Indeed, our assertion that sexual violence is often grievance fueled is unoriginal. More than 40 years of sexual offending research has discussed the pseudosexual nature of much sexual offending, and themes of anger, power, and control – themes that draw clear parallels to the grievance fueled violence paradigm. Therefore, we consider the opportunities for theoretical and practical advancement through the merging of ideas and concepts from the two fields. We examine the scope of grievance in the context of understanding sexual violence, and we look to the role of grievance in the trajectory toward both sexual and nonsexual violence, as well as factors that might distinguish grievance fueled sexual from nonsexual violence. Finally, we discuss future research directions and make recommendations for clinical practice. Specifically, we suggest that grievance represents a promising treatment target where risk is identified for both sexual and nonsexual violence.

The Effect of Attitudes Towards Individuals with Sexual Convictions on Professional and Student Risk Judgments

Attitudes towards individuals with sexual convictions is an area with growing research interest, but the effects of such attitudes on professional judgments is largely unexplored. What is known from the existing literature is that attitudes guide the interpretation of sexual crime related information, which cascade into potential biased or heuristically driven judgments. In this study we recruited samples of both students (n = 341) and forensic professionals (n = 186) to explore whether attitudes towards individuals with sexual convictions predicted risk judgments of hypothetical sexual offense scenarios, and whether this relationship is moderated by professional status or perpetrator characteristics. Forensic professionals expressed more positive attitudes overall, but the significant effect of attitudes on risk judgments was consistent between participant groups and was not moderated by perpetrator age or sex. We suggest that relying on attitudes as a basis for risk judgments opens the door to incorrect (and potentially dangerous) decision-making and discuss our data in terms of their potential clinical implications. An open-access preprint of this work is available at https://psyarxiv.com/rjt5h/.

Prediction of reoffending risk in men convicted of sexual offences: development and validation of novel and scalable risk assessment tools (OxRIS)

BACKGROUND

Current risk assessment tools have a limited evidence base with few validations, poor reporting of outcomes, and rarely include modifiable factors.

METHODS

We examined a national cohort of men convicted of sexual crimes in Sweden. We developed prediction models for three outcomes: violent (including sexual), any, and sexual reoffending. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to develop multivariable prediction models and validated these in an external sample. We reported discrimination and calibration statistics at prespecified cut-offs.

FINDINGS

We identified 16,231 men convicted of sexual offences, of whom 14.8% violently reoffended during a mean follow up of 38 months, 31.4% for any crime (34 months), and 3.6% for sexual crimes (42 months). Models for violent and any reoffending showed good discrimination and calibration. At 1, 3, and 5 years, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75-0.76 for violent reoffending and 0.74-0.75 for any reoffending. The prediction model for sexual reoffending showed modest discrimination (AUC = 0.67) and good calibration. We have generated three simple and web-based risk calculators, which are freely available.

INTERPRETATION

Scalable evidence-based risk assessment tools for sexual offenders in the criminal justice system and forensic mental health could assist decision-making and treatment allocation by identifying those at higher risk, and screening out low risk persons.

Improving Risk Communication: Developing Risk Ratios for the VRAG-R

We developed a set of risk ratios for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) to broaden the range of risk communication options available when using this tool and to provide information needed for future efforts to apply The Council of State Governments Justice Center's standardized five-level risk framework to the scale. A slightly reduced version of the VRAG-R normative data set was used for the analyses (N = 1,238). Contrary to previous research developing risk ratios, logistic regression provided a more accurate estimate of observed violent recidivism rates than Cox regression for both total VRAG-R scores and VRAG-R decile bins. Further analyses indicated the relationship between the VRAG-R and violent recidivism was consistent over a 15-year follow-up period. Due to the difficulties with interpreting odds ratios, the final risk ratios were computed using rate ratios derived from a logistic regression model using a 5-year fixed follow-up period. These risk ratios, and templates for how the ratios might be used in an assessment report, are presented in the appendices.

Factors associated with repeat sexual offending among U.S. military veterans compared to civilians

Although veterans have lower incarceration rates than civilians, large national surveys find higher rates of incarceration for sexual offenses among veterans compared to non-veterans. However, little is known about the factors associated with repeat sexual offending among veterans. This study examines characteristics of veterans who committed sexual offenses and how they differ from civilians with those offenses. It also examined if the factors that differ between veterans and civilians who have a history of repeat sexual offenses and those who do not. Based on previous research related to risk in veterans, we expected there may be veteran-specific risk factors. This study used the Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities. Predictors were identified through a review of the literature regarding sexual offense risk assessment and justice-involved veterans. Risk factors were examined using logistic regression analysis. In a multivariate logistic regression, there were significant interactions between veteran status and age, race, and education in the prediction of repeat offense status. Prior incarceration for a non-sexual offense was also associated with repeat offense status. Findings suggests that civilian risk factors are relevant to veteran risk assessment, an important finding that can help inform intervention and risk management with veterans.

Estimating the probability of sexual recidivism among men charged or convicted of sexual offences: Evidence-based guidance for applied evaluators

Risk assessment is routinely applied in forensic decision-making. Although relative risk information from risk scales is robust across diverse samples and settings, estimates of the absolute probability of sexual recidivism are not. Nonetheless, absolute recidivism estimates are still necessary in some evaluations. This paper summarizes research and offers guidance on evidence-based practices for assessing the probability of recidivism, organized largely around questions commonly asked in court. Overall, estimating the probability of sexual recidivism is difficult and should be undertaken with humility and circumspection. That being said, research favours empirical-actuarial risk tools for this task, more structured scales, and the use of multiple scales. Professional overrides of risk scale results should not be used under any circumstances. Paradoxically, however, professional judgement is still required in some circumstances. Risk scales do not consider all relevant risk factors, but the added value of external risk factors reaches a point of diminishing returns and may or may not be incremental (or worse, can degrade accuracy). There are reasons actuarial risk scales may both underestimate recidivism (e.g., undetected offending, short follow-ups) and overestimate recidivism (e.g., inclusion of sex offences not of interest in some referral questions, data on declining crime and recidivism rates, newer studies demonstrating overestimation of recidivism). Given all these considerations and the need for humility, in the absence of exceptional circumstances, I would not deviate too far from empirical estimates.

Forensic-Psychiatric Risk Evaluations: Perspectives of Forensic Psychiatric Experts and Older Incarcerated Persons From Switzerland

Background: Forensic-psychiatric risk assessments of persons in prisons aim to provide treatment for their mental health disorders to prevent risk of recidivism. Based on the outcomes of such evaluations, it is decided, for instance, whether the person can be released or be assigned to further treatment with or without privileges. A negative evaluation would mean that the assessed person must remain in prison or in a forensic institution until his or her mental health has improved to live safely in the community. This paper highlights the process of forensic-psychiatric evaluations and the challenges faced by the two parties directly involved in this process in Switzerland. Methods: Data for this manuscript are gathered using semi-structured one-to-one interviews. The study participants included a purposive sample of 41 older incarcerated persons under measures (i.e., mandated by court order to psychotherapeutic and psychiatric treatment), and 23 expert participants working in Swiss prisons or forensic institutions. We analyzed data using thematic analysis. Results: Study findings within four themes are reported. First we describe the standards and procedures that expert participants use to carry out adequate risk assessments and conditions under which they refuse to perform such assessments. Thereafter, we present expert participants' concerns associated with predictive risk assessments and highlight the need to be cautious in drawing conclusion from them. We then reveal older incarcerated participants' reports on the inconsistencies with the forensic expertise and their belief that these reports tend to be negative toward them. The final theme concerns older participants' experiences of how these evaluations negatively impact their lives and their perspectives of a different future. Conclusion: The study findings about forensic-psychiatric risk assessments point to the need for a clearer communication on how these evaluations take place and how decisions are taken based on them. As incarceration under measures denotes the necessity to continue therapy and reduce dangerousness, it is important that accused person understands his or her real progress, feel that the decisions are objective and justified, and are aware of the progress needed to achieve the goal of eventual release. Such clarity will not only be valuable for those under measures, but also the justice system.

A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders: 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses

'The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the highest Youden index, maximizing sensitivity (72.7%) and specificity (74.2%), with 25.8% of recidivists correctly assumed to reoffend sexually and 95.7% of non-recidivists correctly assumed not to. The Static-99R instrument demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.79, CI 95% = 0.70-0.87, and OR = 1.45, CI 95% = 1.14-1.84, p < 0.001, 5-year fixed follow-up), with only marginal differences for 10-, 15-, and 20-year fixed follow-up (AUC = 0.73, 0.74, and 0.74 and OR = 1.31, 1.36, and 1.40, respectively). Calibration (quantifying risk and correspondence with the instrument's norms) was acceptable (Brier = 0.088, P/E = 0.70, E/O = 1.43), with the routine sample norms displaying a decisively better fit to the study cohort compared to the high-risk/high-need sample norms. The results affirm the recommendation that, when in doubt and where there is no recent local norm group large enough available, the Static-99R routine sample found in the evaluators' workbook should be used.