Establishment and validation of a simple noninvasive model to predict significant liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Staging liver fibrosis and cirrhosis using non-invasive tests in people with chronic hepatitis B to inform WHO 2024 guidelines: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive tests (aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index [APRI] and transient elastography [FibroScan]) were recommended in the 2015 WHO guidelines to guide treatment decisions in people with chronic hepatitis B. We updated the systematic review and meta-analysis that informed the 2015 guidelines to inform new cutoffs for non-invasive tests for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis and cirrhosis for the 2024 WHO guidelines for chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

We searched PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, and Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science) for studies published in any language between Jan 1, 2014, and Feb 15, 2023. We included all studies that reported cross-sectional data on the staging of fibrosis or cirrhosis with APRI, Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and FibroScan compared with liver biopsy as the reference standard in people with chronic hepatitis B. We excluded studies in which the maximum interval between liver biopsy and non-invasive fibrosis test was more than 6 months; that reported on fewer than ten patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis; that were done exclusively in children; and did not report diagnostic accuracy across our prespecified ranges of test cutoffs. The results of this updated search were collated with the meta-analysis that informed the 2015 guidelines. Outcomes of interest were the sensitivity and specificity of non-invasive tests using defined index test cutoffs for detecting significant fibrosis (≥F2), advanced fibrosis (≥F3), and cirrhosis (F4) based on the METAVIR staging system. We performed meta-analyses using a bivariate random-effects model.

FINDINGS

Of 19 933 records identified by our search strategy, 195 were eligible for our systematic review and combined with the 69 studies from the previous meta-analysis to total 264. Two studies were at low risk of bias, 31 studies had unclear risk of bias, and 231 studies had a high risk of bias. Of these 264, 211 studies with 61 665 patients were used in the meta-analysis. For the diagnosis of significant fibrosis (≥F2), sensitivity and specificity were 72·9% (95% CI 70·2-75·5) and 64·7% (95% CI 61·0-68·2) for the APRI low cutoff (>0·3 to 0·7), 30·5% (23·7-38·3) and 92·3% (89·3-94·6) for the APRI high cutoff (>1·3 to 1·7), and 75·1% (72·2-77·7) and 79·3% (76·2-82·2) for FibroScan (>6·0 to 8·0 kPa), respectively. For the diagnosis of cirrhosis (F4), sensitivity and specificity were 59·4% (53·2-65·2) and 73·9% (70·1-77·4) for the APRI low cutoff (>0·8 to 1·2), 30·2% (24·2-36·9) and 88·2% (85·4-90·6) for the APRI high cutoff (>1·8 to 2·2), and 82·6% (77·8-86·5) and 89·0% (86·3-91·2) for FibroScan (>11·0 to 14·0 kPa), respectively. Using a hypothetical population of 1000 unselected patients with chronic hepatitis B with a 25% prevalence of significant fibrosis (≥F2), the APRI low cutoff for significant fibrosis (≥F2) would result in 262 (26·2%) false positives but only 68 (6·8%) false negatives. The FibroScan cutoff would result in 158 (15·8%) false positives and 63 (6·3%) false negatives. In a population with a 5% prevalence of cirrhosis (F4), the APRI low cutoff for cirrhosis (F4) would result in 247 (24·7%) false positives and 21 (2·1%) false negatives and the FibroScan cutoff would result in 105 (10·5%) false positives and nine (0·9%) false negatives.

INTERPRETATION

These findings have informed new thresholds of APRI and FibroScan for diagnosis of significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in the 2024 WHO guidelines on chronic hepatitis B, with an APRI score greater than 0·5 or a FibroScan value greater than 7·0 kPa considered to identify most adults with significant fibrosis (≥F2) and an APRI score greater than 1·0 or a FibroScan value greater than 12·5 kPa to identify most adults with cirrhosis (F4). These patients are a priority for antiviral treatment.

FUNDING

WHO.

A Novel Non-invasive Model Based on GPR for the Prediction of Liver Fibrosis in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

Background: Some controversy remains regarding conventional serum indices for the evaluation of liver fibrosis. Therefore, we aimed to combine the existing index with other serum parameters to discriminate liver fibrosis stages in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Methods: A total of 1,622 treatment-naïve CHB patients were divided into training (n = 1,211) and validation (n = 451) cohorts. Liver histology was assessed according to the Scheuer scoring scheme. All common demographic and clinical parameters were analyzed. Results: By utilizing the results of the logistic regression analysis, we developed a novel index, the product of GPR, international normalized ratio (INR), and type IV collagen (GIVPR), to discriminate liver fibrosis. In the training group, the areas under the ROCs (AUROCs) of GIVPR, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for significant fibrosis were 0.81, 0.75, 0.72, and 0.77, respectively; the AUROCs of GIVPR, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for advanced fibrosis were 0.82, 0.74, 0.74, and 0.78, respectively; and the AUROCs of GIVPR, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for cirrhosis were 0.87, 0.78, 0.78, and 0.83, respectively. Similar results were also obtained in the validation group. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis suggested that GIVPR represented superior clinical benefits in both independent cohorts. Conclusion: The GIVPR constructed on GPR represents a superior predictive model for discriminating liver fibrosis in CHB patients.

The Combination of Age, International Standardized Ratio, Albumin and γ-Glutamyl Transpeptidase (AIAG), Tumor Size and Alpha Fetoprotein (AFP) Stage as the Prognostic Model for Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Advanced liver fibrosis can lead to cirrhosis, portal hypertension and liver failure. Besides, advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis are the major risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Almost all patients with HCC also have liver cirrhosis. This study aims to predict the survival rate of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by age, international standardized ratio, albumin and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (AIAG), an indicator measuring the degree of cirrhosis.

Methods

A total of 501 hepatitis B-related HCC patients experiencing radical surgery were analyzed, retrospectively. General data about demographics and labs were collected at the date of diagnosis to calculate AIAG [age, international standardized ratio (INR), albumin and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT)]. The Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox analysis were used to evaluate overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). The C-index was calculated in R software (version 4.0.3) to evaluate the accuracy of the prognostic model.

Results

During a median follow-up period of 30 months, 31.1% (156/501) of the patients died, and 34.3% (172/501) experienced the recurrence of HCC. Compared with patients with lower AIAG score, patients with higher AIAG score had higher Child-Pugh grade and were at higher Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage (both P<0.05). Multivariate analysis suggested that GGT, alpha fetoprotein (AFP), tumor size, BCLC stage and AIAG grade were independent predictors of OS and RFS. Furthermore, the combined use of tumor size, AFP and AIAG stage could predict survival significantly better (C-index=0.710, 95% CI: 0.669–0.751) than BCLC stage.

Conclusion

AIAG is significantly associated with survival of HCC patients, and provides additional prognostic information for patients with HCC. Our findings suggest that the combination of AIAG, tumor size and AFP stage has a better predictive value for the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma. However, it is necessary for more external evidences to determine clinical utility.

Diagnostic value of FIB-4 for liver fibrosis in patients with hepatitis B: a meta-analysis of diagnostic test

This study is aimed at evaluating the diagnostic value of FIB-4 for liver fibrosis in patients with hepatitis B through a meta-analysis of diagnostic test. We conducted a comprehensive search in the Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure before October 31, 2016. Stata 14.0 software was used for calculation and statistical analyses. We used the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR, NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate the diagnostic value of FIB-4 for liver fibrosis in patients with hepatitis B. Twenty-six studies were included in the final analyses, with a total of 8274 individuals. The pooled parameters are calculated from all studies: sensitivity of 0.69 (95%CI:0.63-0.75), specificity of 0.81 (95%CI: 0.73-0.87), PLR of 3.63 (95%CI:2.66-4.94), NLR of 0.38 (95%CI:0.32-0.44), DOR of 9.57 (95%CI: 6.67-13.74), and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95%CI: 0.76-0.83). We also conducted subgroup based on the range of cut-off values. Results from subgroup analysis showed that cut-off was the source of heterogeneity in the present study. The sensitivity and specificity of cut-off>2 were 0.69 and 0.95 with the AUC of 0.90 (95%CI: 0.87-0.92). The overall diagnostic value of FIB-4 is not very high for liver fibrosis in patients with hepatitis B. However, the diagnostic value is affected by the cut-off value. FIB-4 has relatively high diagnostic value for detecting liver fibrosis in patients with hepatitis B when the diagnostic threshold value is more than 2.0.

Serum WFA+ -M2BP levels for evaluation of early stages of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Accurate evaluation of liver fibrosis is crucial for predicting progression of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. We assessed the utility of a novel fibrosis glycobiomarker Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA⁺ -M2BP) for evaluating liver fibrosis and disease progression in patients with chronic HBV infection.

METHODS

We enrolled 774 patients with chronic HBV infection, with or without fibrosis, diagnosed by liver biopsy/FibroScan. Patients who underwent liver biopsy (n = 297) were divided into training (n = 221) and validation (n = 76) groups. Serum WFA⁺ -M2BP values were measured and compared with FIB-4 index, aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio (APRI) and AST-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR) using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

Serum WFA⁺ -M2BP levels increased significantly with fibrosis progression (P < 0.0001). Area under the ROC curve of WFA⁺ -M2BP for diagnosing significant fibrosis was higher than that of FIB-4 (P = 0.198), APRI (P = 0.017) and AAR (P < 0.001), with sensitivity and specificity in the training set of 60.5% and 79.8% and validation set of 59.5% and 82.1%, respectively. Serum WFA⁺ -M2BP levels were significantly correlated with FibroScan values (P < 0.0001) and improved the accuracy of FibroScan in assessing significant fibrosis. Changes in WFA⁺ -M2BP levels were parallel with those in FibroScan values during nucleot(s)ide analogues therapy in patients with chronic HBV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

WFA⁺ -M2BP is an accurate serum indicator for assessing early stages of liver fibrosis and may monitor regression of fibrosis during the treatment of chronic HBV infection. WFA⁺ -M2BP provides a simple and reliable alternative or complementary method to liver biopsy and FibroScan.

A proposed predictive model for advanced fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and its validation

We created a predictive model using serum-based biomarkers for advanced fibrosis (F3 or more) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and to confirm the accuracy in an independent cohort.A total of 249 CHB patients were analyzed. To achieve our study aim, a training group (n = 125) and a validation group (n = 124) were formed. In the training group, parameters related to the presence of advanced fibrosis in univariate and multivariate analyses were examined, and a formula for advanced fibrosis was created. Next, we verified the applicability of the predictive model in the validation group.Multivariate analysis identified that gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT, P = 0.0343) and platelet count (P = 0.0034) were significant predictors of the presence of advanced fibrosis, while Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA-M2BP, P = 0.0741) and hyaluronic acid (P = 0.0916) tended to be significant factors. Using these 4 parameters, we created the following formula: GMPH score = -0.755 - (0.015 × GGT) - (0.268 × WFA-M2BP) + (0.167 × platelet count) + (0.003 × hyaluronic acid). In 8 analyzed variables (WFA-M2BP, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, FIB-4 index, prothrombin time, platelet count, hyaluronic acid, Forns index, and GMPH score), GMPH score had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for advanced fibrosis with a value of 0.8064 in the training group and in the validation group, GMPH score also had the highest AUROC (0.7782). In all subgroup analyses of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) status (HB surface antigen quantification, HBV-DNA quantification, and HBe antigen seropositivity), GMPH score in F3 or F4 was significantly lower than that in F0 to F2. In the above mentioned 8 variables, differences between the liver fibrosis stages (F0 to F1 vs F2, F2 vs F3, F3 vs F4, F0 to F1 vs F3, F0 to F1 vs F4, and F2 vs F4) for the entire cohort (n = 249) were all significant only in GMPH score.In conclusion, the GMPH scoring system may be helpful for detecting advanced liver fibrosis in patients with CHB.

Cost-effectiveness of non-invasive methods for assessment and monitoring of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Liver biopsy is the reference standard for diagnosing the extent of fibrosis in chronic liver disease; however, it is invasive, with the potential for serious complications. Alternatives to biopsy include non-invasive liver tests (NILTs); however, the cost-effectiveness of these needs to be established.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of NILTs in patients with chronic liver disease.

DATA SOURCES

We searched various databases from 1998 to April 2012, recent conference proceedings and reference lists.

METHODS

We included studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of NILTs using liver biopsy as the reference standard. Diagnostic studies were assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Meta-analysis was conducted using the bivariate random-effects model with correlation between sensitivity and specificity (whenever possible). Decision models were used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the NILTs. Expected costs were estimated using a NHS perspective and health outcomes were measured as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Markov models were developed to estimate long-term costs and QALYs following testing, and antiviral treatment where indicated, for chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and chronic hepatitis C (HCV). NILTs were compared with each other, sequential testing strategies, biopsy and strategies including no testing. For alcoholic liver disease (ALD), we assessed the cost-effectiveness of NILTs in the context of potentially increasing abstinence from alcohol. Owing to a lack of data and treatments specifically for fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), the analysis was limited to an incremental cost per correct diagnosis. An analysis of NILTs to identify patients with cirrhosis for increased monitoring was also conducted.

RESULTS

Given a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY, treating everyone with HCV without prior testing was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £9204. This was robust in most sensitivity analyses but sensitive to the extent of treatment benefit for patients with mild fibrosis. For HBV [hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative)] this strategy had an ICER of £28,137, which was cost-effective only if the upper bound of the standard UK cost-effectiveness threshold range (£30,000) is acceptable. For HBeAg-positive disease, two NILTs applied sequentially (hyaluronic acid and magnetic resonance elastography) were cost-effective at a £20,000 threshold (ICER: £19,612); however, the results were highly uncertain, with several test strategies having similar expected outcomes and costs. For patients with ALD, liver biopsy was the cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of £822.

LIMITATIONS

A substantial number of tests had only one study from which diagnostic accuracy was derived; therefore, there is a high risk of bias. Most NILTs did not have validated cut-offs for diagnosis of specific fibrosis stages. The findings of the ALD model were dependent on assuptions about abstinence rates assumptions and the modelling approach for NAFLD was hindered by the lack of evidence on clinically effective treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

Treating everyone without NILTs is cost-effective for patients with HCV, but only for HBeAg-negative if the higher cost-effectiveness threshold is appropriate. For HBeAg-positive, two NILTs applied sequentially were cost-effective but highly uncertain. Further evidence for treatment effectiveness is required for ALD and NAFLD.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001561.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Comparison of diagnostic accuracy of aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index and fibrosis-4 index for detecting liver fibrosis in adult patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection: a systemic review and meta-analysis

The aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis index based on the four factors (Fibrosis 4 index; FIB-4) are the two most widely studied noninvasive tools for assessing liver fibrosis. Our aims were to systematically review the performance of APRI and FIB-4 in hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in adult patients and compare their advantages and disadvantages. We examined the diagnostic accuracy of APRI and FIB-4 for significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis based on their sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Heterogeneity was explored using metaregression. Our systemic review and meta-analysis included 16 articles of APRI only, 21 articles of APRI and FIB-4 and two articles of FIB-4 for detecting different levels of liver fibrosis. With an APRI threshold of 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5, the sensitivity and specificity values were 70.0% and 60.0%, 50.0% and 83.0%, and 36.9% and 92.5% for significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis, respectively. With an FIB-4 threshold of 1.45 and 3.25, the sensitivity and specificity values were 65.4% and 73.6% and 16.2% and 95.2% for significant fibrosis. The summary AUROC values using APRI and FIB-4 for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis were 0.7407 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.7033-0.7781) and 0.7844 (95% CI: 0.7450-0.8238; (Z = 1.59, P = 0.06), 0.7347 (95% CI: 0.6790-0.7904) and 0.8165 (95% CI: 0.7707-0.8623; Z = 2.01, P = 0.02), and 0.7268 (95% CI: 0.6578-0.7958) and 0.8448 (95% CI: 0.7742-0.9154; (Z = 2.34, P = 0.01), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis suggests that APRI and FIB-4 can identify hepatitis B-related fibrosis with a moderate sensitivity and accuracy.

A simple noninvasive index to predict significant liver fibrosis in patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica

BACKGROUND

Schistosoma japonicum causes marked liver fibrosis, while lethal syndromes present in advanced schistosomiasis patients. Its management depends on the degree of fibrosis present.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Fifty-two patients were recruited to assess the diagnostic value of bio-markers in patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica. Fibrosis was assessed in liver biopsies using METAVIR system. The correlation between conventional parameters and significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was assessed using univariate analysis and logistic regression. The method of area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) was used as a measurement of diagnostic efficacy.

RESULTS

White blood cell counts, platelet counts and albumin (all P<0.05) were significantly lower, while prothrombin time, international normalized ratio (INR), hyaluronic acid (HA), IV collagen and ultrasound fibrosis scores (all P<0.01) were significantly elevated in F2-F4 patients compared with F0-F1 patients. HA and INR were identified as independent predictors by multivariate analysis (P=0.023 and P=0.013, respectively). Of the routine laboratory tests for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis, HA gave the best AUROC of 0.875 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.701-0.997). We constructed a new simple index (INR×HA/100) to discriminate between F2-F4 patients and F0-F1 patients. It showed the highest AUROC of 0.921 (95% CI: 0.828-1.000), and had better diagnostic values than APRI and FIB-4.

CONCLUSION

HA and INR were reliable markers for differentiating significant liver fibrosis in patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica. And the new simple index can easily predict significant liver fibrosis with a high degree of accuracy.