Predictive performance and clinical utility of HCC risk scores in chronic hepatitis C: a comparative study

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma associated with hepatitis C genotype 3 infection: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a blood-borne virus which globally affects around 79 million people and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Chronic infection leads to cirrhosis in a large proportion of patients and often causes hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in people with cirrhosis. Of the 6 HCV genotypes (G1-G6), genotype-3 accounts for 17.9% of infections. HCV genotype-3 responds least well to directly-acting antivirals and patients with genotype-3 infection are at increased risk of HCC even if they do not have cirrhosis.

AIM

To systematically review and critically appraise all risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV-G3 in all settings. Consequently, we studied possible risk factors for HCC due to HCV-G3 in the literature from 1946 to 2023.

METHODS

This systematic review aimed to synthesise existing and published studies of risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3 and evaluate their strengths and limitations. We searched Web of Science, Medline, EMBASE, and CENTRAL for publications reporting risk factors for HCC due to HCV genotype-3 in all settings, 1946-2023.

RESULTS

Four thousand one hundred and forty-four records were identified from the four databases with 260 records removed as duplicates. Three thousand eight hundred and eighty-four records were screened with 3514 excluded. Three hundred and seventy-one full-texts were assessed for eligibility with seven studies included for analysis. Of the seven studies, three studies were retrospective case-control trials, two retrospective cohort studies, one a prospective cohort study and one a cross-sectional study design. All were based in hospital settings with four in Pakistan, two in South Korea and one in the United States. The total number of participants were 9621 of which 167 developed HCC (1.7%). All seven studies found cirrhosis to be a risk factor for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3 followed by higher age (five-studies), with two studies each showing male sex, high alpha feto-protein, directly-acting antivirals treatment and achievement of sustained virologic response as risk factors for developing HCC.

CONCLUSION

Although, studies have shown that HCV genotype-3 infection is an independent risk factor for end-stage liver disease, HCC, and liver-related death, there is a lack of evidence for specific risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3. Only cirrhosis and age have demonstrated an association; however, the number of studies is very small, and more research is required to investigate risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

International multicenter validation of GES score for HCC risk stratification in chronic hepatitis C patients

We have recently demonstrated the ability of a simple predictive model (GES) score to determine the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after using direct-acting antivirals. However, our results were restricted to Egyptian patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 4. Therefore, we studied a large, independent cohort of multiethnic populations through our international collaborative activity. Depending on their GES scores, patients are stratified into low risk (≤ 6/12.5), intermediate risk (> 6-7.5/12.5), and high risk (> 7.5/12.5) for HCC. A total of 12,038 patients with chronic HCV were analyzed in this study, of whom 11,202 were recruited from 54 centers in France, Japan, India, the U.S., and Spain, and the remaining 836 were selected from the Gilead-sponsored randomized controlled trial conducted across the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Australia. Descriptive statistics and log-rank tests. The performance of the GES score was evaluated using Harrell's C-index (HCI). The GES score proved successful at stratifying all patients into 3 risk groups, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk. It also displayed significant predictive value for HCC development in all participants (p < .0001), with HCI ranging from 0.55 to 0.76 among all cohorts after adjusting for HCV genotypes and patient ethnicities. The GES score can be used to stratify HCV patients into 3 categories of risk for HCC, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk, irrespective of their ethnicities or HCV genotypes. This international multicenter validation may allow the use of GES score in individualized HCC risk-based surveillance programs.