The costs of meeting the environmental objectives for the Baltic Sea: a review of the literature

How unnecessarily high abatement costs and unresolved distributional issues undermine nutrient reductions to the Baltic Sea

This paper systematically reviews the literature on how to reduce nutrient emissions to the Baltic Sea cost-effectively and considerations for allocating these costs fairly among countries. The literature shows conclusively that the reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) could be achieved at considerably lower cost, if countries would cooperate to implement the least costly abatement plan. Focusing on phosphorus abatement could be prudent as the often recommended measures-wastewater treatment and wetlands-abate nitrogen too. An implication of our review is that the potential for restoring the Baltic Sea to good health is undermined by an abatement strategy that is more costly than necessary and likely to be perceived as unfair by several countries. Neither the BSAP nor the cost-effective solution meet the surveyed criteria for fairness, implying a need for side-payments.

Air pollutants from shipping: Costs of NOx emissions to the Baltic Sea

Despite a large body of literature on the calculations of costs of air emissions from shipping, calculations of damages to the marine water are missing. This paper calculated the costs of NO_x emissions from shipping entering an environmentally heterogeneous sea by applying the abatement cost approach. The total costs and unit shadow cost of NO_x were then calculated by means of the marginal abatement cost for international agreements on targets of nitrogen loads to the sea. This conceptual model highlighted the need to distinguish between direct emissions of NO_x on the sea and indirect emissions through deposition of emissions on land in the catchment with subsequent transportation into the sea. Calculated total cost amounted to 240 million euros, where indirect deposition accounted for 23% of the costs. The unit shadow costs ranged between 1.41 and 3.69 euros/kg NO_x-N depending on location of the vessel.

Increasing the cost-effectiveness of nutrient reduction targets using different spatial scales

In this paper, we investigate the potential gains in cost-effectiveness from changing the spatial scale at which nutrient reduction targets are set for the Baltic Sea, with particular focus on nutrient loadings from agriculture. The costs of achieving loading reductions are compared across five levels of spatial scale, namely the entire Baltic Sea; the marine basin level; the country level; the watershed level; and the grid square level. A novel highly-disaggregated model, which represents decreases in agricultural profits, changes in root zone N concentrations and transport to the Baltic Sea is used. The model includes 14 Baltic Sea marine basins, 14 countries, 117 watersheds and 19,023 10-by-10 km grid squares. The main result which emerges is that there is a large variation in the total cost of the program depending on the spatial scale of targeting: for example, for a 40% reduction in loads, the costs of a Baltic Sea-wide target is nearly three times lower than targets set at the smallest level of spatial scale (grid square). These results have important implications for both domestic and international policy design for achieving water quality improvements where non-point pollution is a key stressor of water quality.

The economic value of mussel farming for uncertain nutrient removal in the Baltic Sea

Mussel farming has been recognised as a low cost option for mitigating damage caused by eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. However, uncertain nutrient removal owing to weather and environmental conditions at the mussel farm site has not been previously considered. The purpose of this study was to estimate whether mussel farming has cost advantages even in conditions of uncertainty. To this end, the replacement cost method was used for the valuation of ecosystem services and a numerical cost minimisation model was constructed based on the safety-first approach to account for uncertainty in nutrient removal. This study showed that the value of mussel farming depends on the cost at the farm, and the impact on the mean and variability of nutrient removal in relation to other abatement measures. The study also pointed out the need of data on the decision makers’ risk attitudes and measurement of uncertainty. The application to the Baltic Sea showed that the total value of mussel farming increased from 0.34 billion Euro/year to 0.41 or 1.21 billion Euro when accounting for uncertainty depending on assumption of probability distribution. The increase was unevenly distributed between the Baltic Sea countries, with it found to be lower for countries equipped with highly productive mussel farms and long coastlines.

Temporal scales for nearshore hits of current-driven pollution in the Gulf of Finland

Lagrangian trajectories of water parcels reconstructed using the TRACMASS model from three-dimensional velocity fields by the RCO model for 1965-2004 are used to analyse the temporal scales and the probability for the hits to the nearshore by pollution originating from a major fairway in the Gulf of Finland and transported by surface currents. Increasing the simulation length from 10 to 20days induces a linear increase in particle age, but the pattern of nearshore hits remains the same. A reasonable benefit can be reached by relatively small shifts of certain parts of the present fairway in a few locations. The overall probabilities do not reveal any trend for 1965-2004. The largest changes in the nearshore hits are revealed for the proportion of hits to the opposite nearshore areas. This feature probably reflects an abrupt turn of the geostrophic air-flow over the southern Baltic Sea by ~40° since 1987.

Trophic State Evolution and Nutrient Trapping Capacity in a Transboundary Subtropical Reservoir: A 25-Year Study

Artificial reservoirs have been used for drinking water supply, other human activities, flood control and pollution abatement worldwide, providing overall benefits to downstream water quality. Most reservoirs in Brazil were built during the 1970s, but their long-term patterns of trophic status, water chemistry, and nutrient removal are still not very well characterized. We aimed to evaluate water quality time series (1985-2010) data from the riverine and lacustrine zones of the transboundary Itaipu Reservoir (Brazil/Paraguay). We examined total phosphorus and nitrogen, chlorophyll a concentrations, water transparency, and phytoplankton density to look for spatial and temporal trends and correlations with trophic state evolution and nutrient retention. There was significant temporal and spatial water quality variation (P < 0.01, ANCOVA). The results indicated that the water quality and structure of the reservoir were mainly affected by one internal force (hydrodynamics) and one external force (upstream cascading reservoirs). Nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations tended to be lower in the lacustrine zone and decreased over the 25-year timeframe. Reservoir operational features seemed to be limiting primary production and phytoplankton development, which exhibited a maximum density of 6050  org/mL. The relatively small nutrient concentrations in the riverine zone were probably related to the effect of the cascade reservoirs upstream of Itaipu and led to relatively low removal percentages. Our study suggested that water quality problems may be more pronounced immediately after the filling phase of the artificial reservoirs, associated with the initial decomposition of drowned vegetation at the very beginning of reservoir operation.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Surface Flow Constructed Wetlands (SFCW) for Nutrient Reduction in Drainage Discharge from Agricultural Fields in Denmark

Constructed wetlands have been proposed as cost-effective and more targeted technologies in the reduction of nitrogen and phosphorous water pollution in drainage losses from agricultural fields in Denmark. Using two pig farms and one dairy farm situated in a pumped lowland catchment as case studies, this paper explores the feasibility of implementing surface flow constructed wetlands (SFCW) based on their cost effectiveness. Sensitivity analysis is conducted by varying the cost elements of the wetlands in order to establish the most cost-effective scenario and a comparison with the existing nutrients reduction measures carried out. The analyses show that the cost effectiveness of the SFCW is higher in the drainage catchments with higher nutrient loads. The range of the cost effectiveness ratio on nitrogen reduction differs distinctively with that of catch crop measure. The study concludes that SFCW could be a better optimal nutrients reduction measure in drainage catchments characterized with higher nutrient loads.

Valuing the commons: An international study on the recreational benefits of the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea provides benefits to all of the nine nations along its coastline, with some 85 million people living within the catchment area. Achieving improvements in water quality requires international cooperation. The likelihood of effective cooperation is known to depend on the distribution across countries of the benefits and costs of actions needed to improve water quality. In this paper, we estimate the benefits associated with recreational use of the Baltic Sea in current environmental conditions using a travel cost approach, based on data from a large, standardized survey of households in each of the 9 Baltic Sea states. Both the probability of engaging in recreation (participation) and the number of visits people make are modeled. A large variation in the number of trips and the extent of participation is found, along with large differences in current annual economic benefits from Baltic Sea recreation. The total annual recreation benefits are close to 15 billion EUR. Under a water quality improvement scenario, the proportional increases in benefits range from 7 to 18% of the current annual benefits across countries. Depending on how the costs of actions are distributed, this could imply difficulties in achieving more international cooperation to achieve such improvements.

Application of a novel modeling tool with multistressor functionality to support management of organic contaminants in the Baltic Sea

Organic contaminants constitute one of many stressors that deteriorate the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. When managing environmental problems in this marine environment, it may be necessary to consider the interactions between various stressors to ensure that averting one problem does not exacerbate another. A novel modeling tool, BALTSEM-POP, is presented here that simulates interactions between climate forcing, hydrodynamic conditions, and water exchange, biogeochemical cycling, and organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea. We discuss opportunities to use the model to support different aspects of chemicals management. We exemplify these opportunities with a case study where two emission-reduction strategies for a chemical used in personal care products (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) are evaluated, and where the confounding influence of future climate change and eutrophication on the impact of the emission-reduction strategies are assessed.

Prospects for cost-efficient water protection in the Baltic Sea

This study investigates the economic consequences of the nutrient load reductions agreed in the 2013 revision of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The cost of meeting the targets set for waterborne sources was estimated to be 1980 MEUR annually. The 2013 revision is a step towards cost-efficient water protection: the cost of meeting the earlier targets would have been 328 MEUR (14%) higher, although the revised targets are now more ambitious with respect to phosphorus. We demonstrate that there is potential for efficiency gains by introducing flexibility mechanisms, such as 'joint implementation' to trans-boundary water protection. The potential gains can be as high as 280 MEUR (14%). The most flexible interpretation of the basin targets, one allowing Contracting Parties to account for reductions in other sea basins in proportion to their effect in the focal basin, could further reduce the total cost by 200 MEUR (12%).

Reduction of Baltic Sea nutrient inputs and allocation of abatement costs within the Baltic Sea catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion Euro.

Sources, factors, mechanisms and possible solutions to pollutants in marine ecosystems

Algal toxins or red-tide toxins produced during algal blooms are naturally-derived toxic emerging contaminants (ECs) that may kill organisms, including humans, through contaminated fish or seafood. Other ECs produced either naturally or anthropogenically ultimately flow into marine waters. Pharmaceuticals are also an important pollution source, mostly due to overproduction and incorrect disposal. Ship breaking and recycle industries (SBRIs) can also release various pollutants and substantially deteriorate habitats and marine biodiversity. Overfishing is significantly increasing due to the global food crisis, caused by an increasing world population. Organic matter (OM) pollution and global warming (GW) are key factors that exacerbate these challenges (e.g. algal blooms), to which acidification in marine waters should be added as well. Sources, factors, mechanisms and possible remedial measures of these challenges to marine ecosystems are discussed, including their eventual impact on all forms of life including humans.

Eutrophication, risk management and sustainability. The perceptions of different stakeholders in the northern Baltic Sea

The environmental condition of the Baltic Sea is not only of concern for natural scientists. The awareness of the deteriorating state of the ecosystem has become an issue of interdisciplinary interest, and the amount of organizations with the marine environment and ecosystem health on the agenda is large. To present holistic and sustainable solutions and results of the actions taken, an active cooperation between all stakeholder groups and levels are needed. How different stakeholders in the northern Baltic Sea perceive the structures and assessments of the eutrophication were analyzed by semi-structured interviews with 17 stakeholders representing authorities, scientists, NGOs and national interest organizations. The focus was the view of the governance structures, risk assessment, management and communication. There was an overall consensus that eutrophication is a serious problem. Still variations in the opinions both within and between the stakeholder groups were seen. The scientists were most divergent from the rest.