A Cohort Perspective on the Demography of Grandparenthood: Past, Present, and Future Changes in Race and Sex Disparities in the United States

Projections of human kinship for all countries

Demographers have long attempted to project future changes in the size and composition of populations, but have ignored what these processes will mean for the size, composition, and age distribution of family networks. Kinship structures matter because family solidarity-a crucial source of informal care for millions of people around the world-is conditional on kin being alive. Here, we present innovative projections of biological kin for the 1950 to 2100 period and discuss what they imply for the availability of informal care. Overall, we project that the number of living kin for individuals will decline dramatically worldwide. While a 65-yo woman in 1950 could expect to have 41 living kin, a 65-yo woman in 2095 is projected to have just 25 [18.8 to 34.7] relatives (lower and upper 80% projection intervals). This represents a 38% [15 to 54] global decline. The composition of family networks is also expected to change, with the numbers of living grandparents and great-grandparents markedly increasing, and the numbers of cousins, nieces and nephews, and grandchildren declining. Family networks will age considerably, as we project a widening age gap between individuals and their kin due to lower and later fertility and longer lifespans. In Italy, for example, the average age of a grandmother of a 35-yo woman is expected to increase from 77.9 y in 1950 to 87.7 y [87.1 to 88.5] in 2095. The projected changes in kin supply will put pressure on the already stretched institutional systems of social support, as more individuals age with smaller and older family networks.

Kinship and socio-economic status: Social gradients in frequencies of kin across the life course in Sweden

The influence of kin on various outcomes is heavily debated. However, kinship size itself conditions the probability of potential effects. Socio-economic gradients in the prevalence, variance, and types of kin are, therefore, a vital aspect of the functions of kin. Unfortunately, these parameters are largely unknown. We used Swedish register data to enumerate consanguine and in-law kin across the life course of the 1975 birth cohort. We calculated differences in kinship size between this cohort's income quartiles and educational groups. We decomposed how specific kin relations, generations, and demographic behaviours contributed to these differences. Among low socio-economic status (SES) groups, higher fertility in earlier generations resulted in more kin compared with high-SES groups. Low-SES groups had more horizontal consanguine kin, while high-SES groups had more in-laws. Lower fertility and higher union instability among low-SES men substantially narrowed SES differences in kinship size. Kinship size varied substantially within SES groups.

Lost support, lost skills: Children's cognitive outcomes following grandparental death

OBJECTIVE

This study examines the implications of grandparental death for cognitive skills in middle childhood.

METHOD

This study uses data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 2479) to estimate ordinary least squares regression models of the associations between grandparental death and subsequent cognitive skills among children in middle childhood.

RESULTS

Experiencing a grandparental death between ages 5 and 9 is associated with boys' lower reading, verbal, and math scores at age 9, with associations most notable for Black and Hispanic boys; grandparental death before age 5 has minimal influence on boys' cognitive skills at age 9. There is little indication that grandparental death adversely affects girls' cognitive skills.

CONCLUSION

The numerous and persistent implications of grandparental death for boys' cognitive skills merit greater recognition of grandparental death as a source of family instability, stress, and ultimately inequality in child development.

The ties that transplant: The social capital determinants of the living kidney donor relationship distribution

The network perspective on social capital decomposes it into ego's network size, alters' relevant resources, and social factors moderating access to alters' resources, but rarely examines how it is distributed across relationship types. Using this approach, I investigate the situationally-relevant social capital relationship distribution and its association with health-related social support, with an application to the living kidney donor relationship distribution. Analyzing an original survey of transplant candidates (N = 72) and their reports on their family and friends (N = 1548), I compare the tie count, donation-relevant biomedical resource, and tie strength relationship distributions to administrative data on the national distribution of living kidney donor relationships. I find that the tie strength relationship distribution matches the completed living kidney donor relationship distribution far better than the tie count and donation-relevant biomedical resource relationship distributions. These conclusions are upheld in race- and gender-stratified analyses and are robust across alternative approaches.

The transition to grandparenthood: No consistent evidence for change in the Big Five personality traits and life satisfaction

Intergenerational relations have received close attention in the context of population aging and increased childcare provision by grandparents. However, few studies have investigated the psychological consequences of becoming a grandparent. In a preregistered test of grandparenthood as a developmental task in middle and older adulthood, we used representative panel data from the Netherlands ( N = 563) and the United States ( N = 2210) to analyze first-time grandparents’ personality and life satisfaction development. We tested gender, employment, and grandchild care as moderators. To address confounding, we employed propensity score matching using two procedures: matching grandparents with parents and nonparents to achieve balance in different sets of carefully selected covariates. Multilevel models demonstrated mean-level stability of the Big Five personality traits and life satisfaction over the transition to grandparenthood, and no consistent moderation effects—contrary to the social investment principle. The few small effects of grandparenthood on personality development did not replicate across samples. We found no evidence of larger inter-individual differences in change in grandparents compared to the controls or of lower rank-order stability. Our findings add to recent critical re-examinations of the social investment principle and are discussed in light of characteristics that might moderate grandparents’ personality development.

Grandparents in Italy: trends and changes in the demography of grandparenthood from 1998 to 2016

In this article, we explore the last two decades of changes in the demography of grandparenthood in Italy, by means of a set of measures: the proportion of men and women becoming grandparents by age and time, the age at transition to grandparenthood and its crossing with a set of life events and the length of grandparenthood. We used data from the four waves of the Survey on Family and Social Subjects carried out by the Italian National Institute of Statistics in 1998, 2003, 2009 and 2016. Overall, the median age at which half of the population over 35 is made up of grandparents moved forward by at least 5 years during the two observed decades. The postponement of grandparenthood is evident in middle age: between 55 and 64 the ratio of grandparents to non-grandparents decreased significantly by about 10%. Overall, among people who had ever had children, the median age at the transition to grandparenthood advanced by three years from 1998 to 2016, both for men (59 to 62) and women (54 to 57). This difference is greater than that observed for age at parenthood and equal to the advantage gained in terms of life expectancy at age 60. Thus, despite increasing life expectancy, because of the postponement of grandparenthood, the shared period of life for grandparents and grandchildren has not increased, but rather remained stable.

The Paid and Unpaid Working Life Expectancy at 50 in Europe

OBJECTIVES

Amid growing concerns about the economic implications of population aging and the sustainability of older adults' working life, unpaid family care work receives less attention despite its direct relevance to population aging. This paper systematically compares the paid and unpaid working life expectancy at age 50 to understand the overlap and trade-off between paid and unpaid work among older European adults.

METHOD

Using data from the Survey of Health and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with the Sullivan method, the paper presents gender differences across 17 countries in life expectancy at age 50 at various paid (employment) and unpaid (caregiving) role configurations.

RESULTS

When work is defined to include unpaid family caregiving, women and men have similar working life expectancies at age 50, in contrast to prior research. However, its paid and unpaid components are gendered. The results also show that at age 50, women are expected to spend similar number of years providing grandchild care and ADL/IADL care and that most of these years take place after retirement.

DISCUSSION

The results highlight that the gendered tension between paid and unpaid work persists into older adulthood and needs to be accounted for in working life expectancy measures. The results also underscore the gendered implications of population aging and unpaid work in older adulthood for retirement age policies and strategies for promoting gender equality in later life.

Women's Experience of Child Death Over the Life Course: A Global Demographic Perspective

The death of a child affects the well-being of parents and families worldwide, but little is known about the scale of this phenomenon. Using a novel methodology from formal demography applied to data from the 2019 Revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects, we provide the first global overview of parental bereavement, its magnitude, prevalence, and distribution over age for the 1950-2000 annual birth cohorts of women. We project that the global burden of parental bereavement will be 1.6 times lower for women born in 2000 than for women born in 1955. Accounting for compositional effects, we anticipate the largest improvements in regions of the Global South, where offspring mortality continues to be a common life event. This study quantifies an unprecedented shift in the timing of parental bereavement from reproductive to retirement ages. Women in the 1985 cohort and subsequent cohorts will be more likely to lose an adult child after age 65 than to lose a young child before age 50, reversing a long-standing global trend. "Child death" will increasingly come to mean the death of adult offspring. We project persisting regional inequalities in offspring mortality and in the availability of children in later life, a particular concern for parents dependent on support from their children after retirement. Nevertheless, our analyses suggest a progressive narrowing of the historical gap between the Global North and South in the near future. These developments have profound implications for demographic theory and highlight the need for policies to support bereaved older parents.

Care Life Expectancy: Gender and Unpaid Work in the Context of Population Aging

Amid growing concern regarding the potential added burden of care due to population aging, we have very little understanding of what is the burden of care in aging populations. To answer this question, we introduce a novel metric that encompasses demographic complexity and social context to summarize unpaid family care work provided to children, elderly, and other family members across the life cycle at a population level. The measure (Care Life Expectancy), an application of the Sullivan method, estimates the number of years and proportion of adult life that people spend in an unpaid caregiving role. We demonstrate the value of the metric by using it to describe gender differences in unpaid care work in 23 European aging countries. We find that at age 15, women and men are expected to be in an unpaid caregiving role for over half of their remaining life. For women in most of the countries, over half of those years will involve high-level caregiving for a family member. We also find that men lag in caregiving across most countries, even when using the lowest threshold of caregiving. As we show here, demographic techniques can be used to enhance our understanding of the gendered implications of population aging, particularly as they relate to policy research and public debate.

The Role of Fertility in the Demography of Grandparenthood: Evidence from Italy

Grandparents play an important role in their family’s lives. However, little is known about the demography of grandparenthood. Given dramatic recent changes in fertility, we explore the role of number of children and age at first birth in the timing of the transition into grandparenthood focusing on Italy, a country with well-known North-South fertility differentials. We used data from the 2009 Italian Survey ‘Family and Social Relations’ (N = 10,186) to estimate median ages of grandparenthood across three birth cohorts of parents (1920–29; 1930–39; 1940–49). Findings show an overall postponement of age of grandparenthood of 5 years, shifting for women from early to mid- or late-50s (in the South and North, respectively). Such postponement is largely driven by family compositional changes: although the age of grandparenthood among mothers of three or more children has not changed much over cohorts, the percentage of mothers with such characteristic decreased significantly. The heterogeneity in experiencing the transition to grandparenthood has implications for intergenerational transfers and other roles in later life.

Historical Trends in Children Living in Multigenerational Households in the United States: 1870-2018

Over the last two decades, the share of U.S. children under age 18 who live in a multigenerational household (with a grandparent and parent) has increased dramatically. Yet we do not know whether this increase is a recent phenomenon or a return to earlier levels of coresidence. Using data from the decennial census from 1870 to 2010 and the 2018 American Community Survey, we examine historical trends in children's multigenerational living arrangements, differences by race/ethnicity and education, and factors that explain the observed trends. We find that in 2018, 10% of U.S. children lived in a multigenerational household, a return to levels last observed in 1950. The current increase in multigenerational households began in 1980, when only 5% of children lived in such a household. Few differences in the prevalence of multigenerational coresidence by race/ethnicity or education existed in the early part of the twentieth century; racial/ethnic and education differences in coresidence are a more recent phenomena. Decomposition analyses do little to explain the decline in coresidence between 1940 and 1980, suggesting that unmeasured factors explain the decrease. Declines in marriage and in the share of White children most strongly explained the increase in multigenerational coresidence between 1980 and 2018. For White children with highly educated parents, factors explaining the increase in coresidence differ from other groups. Our findings suggest that the links between race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status and multigenerational coresidence have changed over time, and today the link between parental education and coresidence varies within racial/ethnic groups.

Grandparenthood and risk of mortality: Findings from the Health and Retirement Study

Grandparenthood constitutes a significant role for older adults and may have important health implications. Our study examines the grandparenthood-mortality nexus, controlling for an array of potentially confounding variables. Longitudinal survey data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) were used, comprising twelve biennial waves from 1992 to 2014 with linked data on vital status derived from the National Death Index. The sample included 27,463 participants aged ≥51 years with at least one child. Cox proportional hazard models tested the association between grandparenthood and mortality risk with adjustment for socio-demographic variables, for social variables including characteristics of and contact with children, and for health variables, including measures of general, functional and mental health. Grandparenthood overall was unassociated with mortality risk in both women and men. However, the subpopulation of younger, partnered grandmothers with a larger number of grandchildren tended to exhibit a substantial increase in mortality risk as compared to women without grandchildren.

Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a large increase in mortality in the United States and around the world, leaving many grieving the sudden loss of family members. We created an indicator-the COVID-19 bereavement multiplier-that estimates the average number of individuals who will experience the death of a close relative (defined as a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child) for each COVID-19 death. Using demographic microsimulation-based estimates of kinship networks in the United States, the clear age gradient in COVID-19 mortality seen across contexts, and several hypothetical infection prevalence scenarios, we estimate COVID-19 bereavement multipliers for White and Black individuals in the United States. Our analysis shows that for every COVID-19 death, approximately nine surviving Americans will lose a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child. These estimates imply, for example, that if 190,000 Americans die from COVID-19, as some models project, then ∼1.7 million will experience the death of a close relative. We demonstrate that our estimates of the bereavement multiplier are stable across epidemiological realities, including infection scenarios, total number of deaths, and the distribution of deaths, which means researchers can estimate the bereavement burden over the course of the epidemic in lockstep with rising death tolls. In addition, we provide estimates of bereavement multipliers by age group, types of kin loss, and race to illuminate prospective disparities. The bereavement multiplier is a useful indicator for tracking COVID-19's multiplicative impact as it reverberates across American families and can be tailored to other causes of death.