Health Economic Evidence and Modeling Challenges for Liquid Biopsy Assays in Cancer Management: A Systematic Literature Review

Towards Recommendations for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Predictive, Prognostic, and Serial Biomarker Tests in Oncology

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of biomarkers is challenging due to the indirect impact on health outcomes and the lack of sufficient fit-for-purpose data. Hands-on guidance is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed firstly to explore how CEAs in the context of three different types of biomarker applications have addressed these challenges, and secondly to develop recommendations for future CEAs.

METHODS

A scoping review was performed for three biomarker applications: predictive, prognostic, and serial testing, in advanced non-small cell lung cancer, early-stage colorectal cancer, and all-stage colorectal cancer, respectively. Information was extracted on the model assumptions and uncertainty, and the reported outcomes. An in-depth analysis of the literature was performed describing the impact of model assumptions in the included studies.

RESULTS

A total of 43 CEAs were included (31 predictive, 6 prognostic, and 6 serial testing). Of these, 40 utilized different sources for test and treatment parameters, and three studies utilized a single source. Test performance was included in 78% of these studies utilizing different sources, but this parameter was differently expressed across biomarker applications. Sensitivity analyses for test performance was only performed in half of these studies. For the linkage of test results to treatments outcomes, a minority of the studies explored the impact of suboptimal adherence to test results, and/or explored potential differences in treatment effects for different biomarker subgroups. Intermediate outcomes were reported by 67% of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified various approaches for dealing with challenges in CEAs of biomarker tests for three different biomarker applications. Recommendations on assumptions, handling uncertainty, and reported outcomes were drafted to enhance modeling practices for future biomarker cost-effectiveness evaluations.

Modernizing Neuro-Oncology: The Impact of Imaging, Liquid Biopsies, and AI on Diagnosis and Treatment

Advances in neuro-oncology have transformed the diagnosis and management of brain tumors, which are among the most challenging malignancies due to their high mortality rates and complex neurological effects. Despite advancements in surgery and chemoradiotherapy, the prognosis for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) and brain metastases remains poor, underscoring the need for innovative diagnostic strategies. This review highlights recent advancements in imaging techniques, liquid biopsies, and artificial intelligence (AI) applications addressing current diagnostic challenges. Advanced imaging techniques, including diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), improve the differentiation of tumor progression from treatment-related changes. Additionally, novel positron emission tomography (PET) radiotracers, such as 18F-fluoropivalate, 18F-fluoroethyltyrosine, and 18F-fluluciclovine, facilitate metabolic profiling of high-grade gliomas. Liquid biopsy, a minimally invasive technique, enables real-time monitoring of biomarkers such as circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), extracellular vesicles (EVs), circulating tumor cells (CTCs), and tumor-educated platelets (TEPs), enhancing diagnostic precision. AI-driven algorithms, such as convolutional neural networks, integrate diagnostic tools to improve accuracy, reduce interobserver variability, and accelerate clinical decision-making. These innovations advance personalized neuro-oncological care, offering new opportunities to improve outcomes for patients with central nervous system tumors. We advocate for future research integrating these tools into clinical workflows, addressing accessibility challenges, and standardizing methodologies to ensure broad applicability in neuro-oncology.

Approaches to Incorporation of Preferences into Health Economic Models of Genomic Medicine: A Critical Interpretive Synthesis and Conceptual Framework

INTRODUCTION

Genomic medicine has features that make it preference sensitive and amenable to model-based health economic evaluation. Preferences of patients, caregivers, and clinicians related to the uptake and delivery of genomic medicine technologies and services that are not captured in health state utility weights can affect the intervention's cost-effectiveness and budget impact. However, there is currently no established or agreed-on approach for integrating preference information into economic evaluations. The objective of this study was to explore approaches for incorporating preferences into model-based economic evaluations of genomic medicine and to develop a conceptual framework to consider preferences in health economic models.

METHODS

We conducted a critical interpretive synthesis of published literature guided by the following question: how have preferences been incorporated into model-based economic evaluations of genomic medicine interventions? We integrated findings from the literature and expert opinion to develop a conceptual framework of ways in which preferences influence economic value in the context of genomic medicine.

RESULTS

Our synthesis included 14 articles. Revealed and stated preference data were used to estimate choice probabilities and to value outcomes. Our conceptual framework situates preference data in the context of health system, patient, clinician, and family characteristics. Preference data were sourced from clinicians, patients and families impacted by a condition or intervention, and the general public. Evaluations employed various types of models, including discrete event simulation, microsimulation, Markov, and decision tree models.

CONCLUSION

When evaluating the broad benefits and costs of implementing new interventions, sufficiently accounting for preferences in the form of model inputs and valuation of outcomes in economic evaluations is important to avoid biased implementation decisions. Incorporation of preference data may improve alignment between predicted and real-world uptake and more accurately estimate welfare impacts, and this study provides critical insights to support researchers who seek to incorporate preference information into model-based health economic evaluations.

Integrating Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Tests with Standard Cancer Screening: System Dynamics Model Development and Feasibility Testing

BACKGROUND

Cancer screening plays a critical role in early disease detection and improving outcomes. In Australia, established screening protocols for colorectal, breast and cervical cancer have significantly contributed to timely cancer detection. However, the recent introduction of multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests arguably can disrupt current screening, yet the extent to which these tests provide additional benefits remains uncertain. We present the development and initial validation of a system dynamics (SD) model that estimates the additional cancer detections and costs associated with MCED tests.

AIM

This article describes the development of a simulation model built to evaluate the additional patient diagnoses and the economic impact of incorporating MCED testing alongside Australia's well-established standard of care (SOC) screening programs for colorectal, breast, cervical and lung cancers. The model was designed to estimate the additional number of patients diagnosed at each cancer stage (stage I, II, III, IV, or unknown) and the associated costs. This simulation model allows for the analysis of multiple scenarios under a plausible set of assumptions regarding population-level participation rates.

METHODS

An SD model was developed to represent the existing SOC national cancer screening pathways and to integrate potential clinical pathways that could be introduced by MCED tests. The SD model was built to investigate three scenarios for the use of MCED testing: firstly, to explore the viability of MCED testing as a substitute among individuals who are not opting for SOC screening for any reason; secondly, to implement MCED testing exclusively for individuals ineligible for SOC screening, yet have high-risk characteristics; and thirdly, to employ MCED testing after SOC screening to serve as a triaging/confirmatory tool for individuals receiving inconclusive test results. The three primary scenarios were constructed by varying diagnostic accuracy and uptake rates of MCED tests.

DISCUSSION

The clinical utility and outcomes of MCED testing for screening and early detection still lack comprehensive evidence. Nonetheless, this simulation model facilitates a thorough analysis of MCED tests within the Australian healthcare context, providing insights into potential additional detections and costs to the healthcare system, which may help prioritise future evidence development. The adaptable yet novel SD model presented herein is anticipated to be of considerable interest to industry, policymakers, consumers and clinicians involved in informing clinical and economic decisions regarding integrating MCED tests as cancer screening and early detection tools. The expected results of applying this SD model will determine whether using MCED testing in conjunction with SOC screening offers any potential benefits, possibly guiding policy decisions and clinical practices towards the adoption of MCED tests.

Non-Invasive Biomarkers and Breath Tests for Diagnosis and Monitoring of Chronic Liver Diseases

Background: Chronic liver disease (CLD) presents a significant global health burden, demanding effective tools for diagnosis and monitoring. Traditionally, liver biopsy has been the gold standard for evaluating liver fibrosis and other chronic liver conditions. However, biopsy's invasiveness, associated risks, and sampling variability indicate the need for reliable, noninvasive alternatives. This review examines the utility of noninvasive tests (NITs) in assessing liver disease severity, progression, and therapeutic response in patients with CLD. Result: Key modalities discussed include serum biomarker panels (e.g., FIB-4, APRI, ELF), imaging techniques like transient elastography, and magnetic resonance elastography, each offering unique benefits in fibrosis staging. Emerging biomarkers such as extracellular vesicles and circulating microRNAs show promise in early detection and personalized monitoring. Comparative studies indicate that while no single NIT matches biopsy precision, combinations of these modalities improve diagnostic accuracy and patient outcomes by reducing unnecessary biopsies. Moreover, NITs are instrumental in monitoring dynamic changes in liver health, allowing for more responsive and patient-centered care. Conclusions: Challenges remain, including standardization across tests, cost considerations, and the need for larger, diverse population studies to validate findings. Despite these limitations, NITs are increasingly integrated into clinical practice, fostering a paradigm shift toward noninvasive, accessible liver disease management. Continued advancements in NITs are essential for improved patient outcomes and will likely shape the future standard of care for CLD.

Point of Care Liquid Biopsy for Cancer Treatment-Early Experience from a Community Center

Liquid biopsy is rapidly becoming an indispensable tool in the oncologist's arsenal; however, this technique remains elusive in a publicly funded healthcare system, and real-world evidence is needed to demonstrate utility and feasibility. Here, we describe the first experience of an in-house point of care liquid biopsy program at a Canadian community hospital. A retrospective review of consecutive cases that underwent plasma-based next-generation sequencing (NGS) was conducted. Liquid biopsy was initiated at the discretion of clinicians. Sequencing followed a point of care workflow using the Genexus™ integrated sequencer and the Oncomine precision assay, performed by histotechnologists. Results were reported by the attending pathologist. Eligible charts were reviewed for outcomes of interest, including the intent of the liquid biopsy, results of the liquid biopsy, and turnaround time from blood draw to results available. A total of 124 cases, with confirmed or suspected cancer, underwent liquid biopsy between January 2021 and November 2023. The median turnaround time for liquid biopsy results was 3 business days (range 1-12 days). The sensitivity of liquid biopsies was 71%, compared to tissue testing in cases with matched tissue results available for comparison. Common mutations included EGFR (29%), in 86 lung cancer patients, and PIK3CA (22%), identified in 13 breast cancer patients. Healthcare providers ordered liquid biopsies to inform diagnostic investigations and treatment decisions, and to determine progression or resistance mechanisms, as these reasons often overlapped. This study demonstrates that rapid in-house liquid biopsy using point of care methodology is feasible. The technique facilitates precision treatment and offers many additional advantages for cancer care.

Implementing circulating tumor DNA as a prognostic biomarker in resectable non-small cell lung cancer

Systemic treatment of resectable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is evolving with emerging neoadjuvant, perioperative, and adjuvant immunotherapy approaches. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) detection at clinical diagnosis, during neoadjuvant therapy, or after resection may discern high-risk patients who might benefit from therapy escalation or switch. This Review summarizes translational implications of data supporting ctDNA-based risk determination in NSCLC and outstanding questions regarding ctDNA validity/utility as a prognostic biomarker. We discuss emerging ctDNA capabilities to refine clinical tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging in lung adenocarcinoma, ctDNA dynamics during neoadjuvant therapy for identifying patients deriving suboptimal benefit, and postoperative molecular residual disease (MRD) detection to escalate systemic therapy. Considering differential relapse characteristics in landmark MRD-negative/MRD-positive patients, we propose how ctDNA might integrate with pathological response data for optimal postoperative risk stratification.

Translation of Epigenetics in Cell-Free DNA Liquid Biopsy Technology and Precision Oncology

Technological advancements in cell-free DNA (cfDNA) liquid biopsy have triggered exponential growth in numerous clinical applications. While cfDNA-based liquid biopsy has made significant strides in personalizing cancer treatment, the exploration and translation of epigenetics in liquid biopsy to clinical practice is still nascent. This comprehensive review seeks to provide a broad yet in-depth narrative of the present status of epigenetics in cfDNA liquid biopsy and its associated challenges. It highlights the potential of epigenetics in cfDNA liquid biopsy technologies with the hopes of enhancing its clinical translation. The momentum of cfDNA liquid biopsy technologies in recent years has propelled epigenetics to the forefront of molecular biology. We have only begun to reveal the true potential of epigenetics in both our understanding of disease and leveraging epigenetics in the diagnostic and therapeutic domains. Recent clinical applications of epigenetics-based cfDNA liquid biopsy revolve around DNA methylation in screening and early cancer detection, leading to the development of multi-cancer early detection tests and the capability to pinpoint tissues of origin. The clinical application of epigenetics in cfDNA liquid biopsy in minimal residual disease, monitoring, and surveillance are at their initial stages. A notable advancement in fragmentation patterns analysis has created a new avenue for epigenetic biomarkers. However, the widespread application of cfDNA liquid biopsy has many challenges, including biomarker sensitivity, specificity, logistics including infrastructure and personnel, data processing, handling, results interpretation, accessibility, and cost effectiveness. Exploring and translating epigenetics in cfDNA liquid biopsy technology can transform our understanding and perception of cancer prevention and management. cfDNA liquid biopsy has great potential in precision oncology to revolutionize conventional ways of early cancer detection, monitoring residual disease, treatment response, surveillance, and drug development. Adapting the implementation of liquid biopsy workflow to the local policy worldwide and developing point-of-care testing holds great potential to overcome global cancer disparity and improve cancer outcomes.

Identification and Application of Emerging Biomarkers in Treatment of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: Systematic Review

Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) comprises approximately 85% of all lung cancer cases, often diagnosed at advanced stages, which diminishes the effective treatment options and survival rates. This systematic review assesses the utility of emerging biomarkers-circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), microRNAs (miRNAs), and the blood tumor mutational burden (bTMB)-enhanced by next-generation sequencing (NGS) to improve the diagnostic accuracy, prognostic evaluation, and treatment strategies in NSCLC. Analyzing data from 37 studies involving 10,332 patients from 2020 to 2024, the review highlights how biomarkers like ctDNA and PD-L1 expression critically inform the selection of personalized therapies, particularly beneficial in the advanced stages of NSCLC. These biomarkers are critical for prognostic assessments and in dynamically adapting treatment plans, where high PD-L1 expression and specific genetic mutations (e.g., ALK fusions, EGFR mutations) significantly guide the use of targeted therapies and immunotherapies. The findings recommend integrating these biomarkers into standardized clinical pathways to maximize their potential in enhancing the treatment precision, ultimately fostering significant advancements in oncology and improving patient outcomes and quality of life. This review substantiates the prognostic and predictive value of these biomarkers and emphasizes the need for ongoing innovation in biomarker research.

Status of breast cancer detection in young women and potential of liquid biopsy

Young onset breast cancer (YOBC) is an increasing demographic with unique biology, limited screening, and poor outcomes. Further, women with postpartum breast cancers (PPBCs), cancers occurring up to 10 years after childbirth, have worse outcomes than other young breast cancer patients matched for tumor stage and subtype. Early-stage detection of YOBC is critical for improving outcomes. However, most young women (under 45) do not meet current age guidelines for routine mammographic screening and are thus an underserved population. Other challenges to early detection in this population include reduced performance of standard of care mammography and reduced awareness. Women often face significant barriers in accessing health care during the postpartum period and disadvantaged communities face compounding barriers due to systemic health care inequities. Blood tests and liquid biopsies targeting early detection may provide an attractive option to help address these challenges. Test development in this area includes understanding of the unique biology involved in YOBC and in particular PPBCs that tend to be more aggressive and deadly. In this review, we will present the status of breast cancer screening and detection in young women, provide a summary of some unique biological features of YOBC, and discuss the potential for blood tests and liquid biopsy platforms to address current shortcomings in timely, equitable detection.

liquid biopsy holds a promising approach for the early detection of cancer: Current information and future perspectives

Cancer is becoming a global pandemic, and its occurrence is increasing rapidly, putting a strain on people's families, health systems, and finances, in addition to their physical, mental, and emotional well-being. Many cancer types lack screening programs, and many people at high risk of developing cancer do not follow recommended medical screening regimens because of the nature of currently available screening tests and other compliance issues, despite cancer being the second leading cause of death worldwide. Furthermore, a lot of liquid biopsy methods for early cancer screening are not sensitive enough to catch cancer early. Cancer treatment costs increase with the time it takes to diagnose the disease; therefore, early detection is essential to enhance the quality of life and survival rates. The current status of the liquid biopsy sector is examined in this paper.

Detection of genomic alterations in liquid biopsies from patients with non-small cell lung cancer using FoundationOne Liquid CDx: a cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

Liquid biopsy (LB) is a non-invasive technique to detect genetic alterations by next-generation sequencing (NGS) when tissue biopsy is not available. This study aims to estimate in the Spanish setting, the cost-effectiveness of using FoundationOne Liquid CDx (F1L CDx), a novel blood-derived LB test based on NGS, versus non-molecular diagnosis (non-mDx) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in whom tissue sampling is not feasible.

METHODS

A joint model was developed combining a decision-tree with partitioned survival models to calculate the costs and health outcomes over a lifetime horizon, comparing F1L CDx in LB versus non-mDx. Only direct costs (expressed in € of 2023) were included and a 3% discount rate for future costs and effects was considered. Health outcomes were expressed in Life Years (LYs) and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Utilities and treatment efficacy were obtained from the literature. An expert panel of 11 Spanish oncologists determined the treatment allocation and validated all model inputs and assumptions. Several sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

In a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 patients, LB using F1L CDx would detect 386 alterations, so those patients could be treated with targeted therapies or enrolled in clinical trials. Cost-effectiveness results showed that F1L CDx provides greater effectiveness than non-mDx (+383.95 LYs and +305.94 QALYs), with an additional cost of €2,898,308. The incremental cost-utility ratio was €9,473/QALY gained. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the cost-effectiveness results.

LIMITATIONS

Various limitations inherent to cost-effectiveness analyses were described.

CONCLUSION

LB with F1L CDx test is a cost-effective strategy in Spain for patients with advanced NSCLC without tissue sample available for molecular diagnosis, improving the personalized treatment of these patients.