An Active Inference Account of Skilled Anticipation in Sport: Using Computational Models to Formalise Theory and Generate New Hypotheses

The effect of task load, information reliability and interdependency on anticipation performance

In sport, coaches often explicitly provide athletes with stable contextual information related to opponent action preferences to enhance anticipation performance. This information can be dependent on, or independent of, dynamic contextual information that only emerges during the sequence of play (e.g. opponent positioning). The interdependency between contextual information sources, and the associated cognitive demands of integrating information sources during anticipation, has not yet been systematically examined. We used a temporal occlusion paradigm to alter the reliability of contextual and kinematic information during the early, mid- and final phases of a two-versus-two soccer anticipation task. A dual-task paradigm was incorporated to investigate the impact of task load on skilled soccer players' ability to integrate information and update their judgements in each phase. Across conditions, participants received no contextual information (control) or stable contextual information (opponent preferences) that was dependent on, or independent of, dynamic contextual information (opponent positioning). As predicted, participants used reliable contextual and kinematic information to enhance anticipation. Further exploratory analysis suggested that increased task load detrimentally affected anticipation accuracy but only when both reliable contextual and kinematic information were available for integration in the final phase. This effect was observed irrespective of whether the stable contextual information was dependent on, or independent of, dynamic contextual information. Findings suggest that updating anticipatory judgements in the final phase of a sequence of play based on the integration of reliable contextual and kinematic information requires cognitive resources.

Is Anticipation Skill Learning Bayesian?

Purpose: The aims of this study were to examine the learning of anticipation skill in the presence of kinematic and outcome probabilities information, and to see if this learning exhibited characteristics of Bayesian integration. Method: Participants with no competitive tennis playing experience watched tennis player stimuli playing forehand tennis shots and were tasked with predicted shot outcomes. Accuracy, response times and perceived task effort were recorded, pre, post and during four acquisition blocks where outcome feedback was provided. In both Experiment 1 and 2, kinematic information about shot direction was either present in the training group stimuli or absent. In Experiment 1, left/right shot probability information remained equi-probable for both groups. In Experiment 2, both groups also trained with a bias in the shot outcome probability toward one shot direction on 80% of the trials across acquisition blocks (and were not told about this manipulation). Results: Pre-to-post anticipation performance improved in the presence of kinematic (EXP 1) or both information sources (EXP 2). Pre-to-post improvements in the presence of shot outcome probability information were congruent with the bias in the shot direction trained (EXP 2). Superior anticipation performance was found when both information sources were present. The presence of kinematic information resulted in increased perceived effort during early training (EXP 1 & 2). Bayesian odds ratios indicated that shot direction probabilities and kinematic information were integrated during anticipation skill learning. Conclusion: Learning with shot direction probabilities and kinematic information shows characteristics of Bayesian integration.

"What we talk about is creating a probability": Exploring the interaction between the anticipation and decision-making processes of professional bowlers and batters in Twenty20 cricket

Expert performers in time constrained sports use a range of information sources to facilitate anticipatory and decision-making processes. However, research has often focused on responders such as batters, goalkeepers, defenders, and returners of serve, and failed to capture the complex interaction between opponents, where responders can also manipulate probabilities in their favour. This investigation aimed to explore the interaction between top order batters and fast or medium paced bowlers in cricket and the information they use to inform their anticipatory and decision-making skills in Twenty20 competition. Eleven professional cricketers were interviewed (8 batters and 3 bowlers) using semi-structured questions and scenarios from Twenty20 matches. An inductive and deductive thematic analysis was conducted using the overarching themes of Situation Awareness (SA) and Option Awareness (OA). Within SA, the sub-themes identified related to information sources used by bowlers and batters (i.e., stable contextual information, dynamic contextual information, kinematic information). Within OA, the sub-themes identified highlighted how cricketers use these information sources to understand the options available and the likelihood of success associated with each option (e.g., risk and reward, personal strengths). A sub-theme of 'responder manipulation' was also identified within OA to provide insight into how batters and bowlers interact in a cat-and-mouse like manner to generate options that manipulate one another throughout the competition. A schematic has been developed based on the study findings to illustrate the complex interaction between the anticipation and decision-making processes of professional top order batters and fast or medium paced bowlers in Twenty20 cricket.

Estimating the Relationship Between the Symptom-Free Waiting Period and Injury Rates After Return-to-Play from Concussion: A Simulation Analysis Using CARE Consortium Data

BACKGROUND

A key component of return-to-play (RTP) from sport-related concussion is the symptom-free waiting period (SFWP), i.e., the period during which athletes must remain symptom-free before permitting RTP. Yet, the exact relationship between SFWP and post-RTP injury rates is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We design computational simulations to estimate the relationship between the SFWP and rates of repeat concussion and non-concussion time-loss injury up to 30 days post-RTP for male and female collegiate athletes across 13 sports.

METHODS

We leverage N = 735 female and N = 1,094 male post-injury trajectories from the National Collegiate Athletic Association-Department of Defense Concussion Assessment, Research, and Education Consortium.

RESULTS

With a 6-day SFWP, the mean [95% CI] rate of repeat concussion per 1,000 simulations was greatest in ice hockey for females (20.31, [20.16, 20.46]) and American football for males (24.16, [24.05, 24.28]). Non-concussion time-loss injury rates were greatest in field hockey for females (153.66, [152.59, 154.74]) and wrestling for males (247.34, [246.20, 248.48]). Increasing to a 13-day SFWP, ice hockey for females (18.88, [18.79, 18.98]) and American football for males (23.16, [23.09, 24.22]) exhibit the greatest decrease in repeat concussion rates across all sports within their respective sexes. Field hockey for females (143.24, [142.53, 143.94]) and wrestling for males (237.73, [236.67, 237.90]) exhibit the greatest decrease in non-concussion time-loss injury rates. Males receive marginally smaller reductions in injury rates for increased SFWP compared to females (OR = 1.003, p ≤ 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Longer SFWPs lead to greater reductions in post-RTP injury rates for athletes in higher risk sports. Moreover, SFWPs should be tailored to sport-specific post-RTP injury risks.

Expert goalkeepers' and coaches' views on anticipation and cue utilisation facing backcourt throws in handball goalkeeping

Introduction

Handball goalkeepers have to act under severe spatio-temporal pressure in both standardised (e.g., 7 m penalty) and non-standardised situations (e.g., backcourt throws) which require them to predict action outcome before ball flight is visible. So far, research on goalkeepers' cue utilisation for anticipation of an opponent's action has mainly focused on 7 m throw situations whereas little attention has been paid to the latter, more complex and far more frequently occurring backcourt throw situations.

Methods

To address this gap, we conducted semi-structured interviews with N = 6 expert handball goalkeepers and goalkeeper coaches [all of whom were (former) expert handball goalkeepers] on anticipation and cue utilisation when facing backcourt throws. The interviews were subsequently transcribed, coded and results were inductively as well as deductively categorised by means of a thematic analysis.

Results

Results reveal a variety of kinematic and contextual cues relevant for action anticipation that become available before the game and before or during the throw. Participants reported to use information from the offence (e.g., thrower's jump; opposing team's task distribution) and the defence (e.g., defensive players' strategies, block position) for anticipation in backcourt throw situations. Additionally, we identified several factors that influence cue availability and utilisation.

Discussion

Our findings provide a thorough basis to (a) guide future research that yields questions on kinematic and contextual cue integration and in-situ cue usage as well as (b) inform the development of training programs to foster goalkeepers' anticipatory skill.

Action outcome probability influences the size of the head-fake effect in basketball

Both kinematic and contextual information (e.g., action outcome probability) play a significant role in action anticipation. However, few researchers have examined the reciprocal influence of the two types of information and fewer still have investigated this issue for deceptive actions in sports. In the present study, we investigate the impact of action outcome probability on the processing of deceptive kinematic cues for the head fake in basketball. We manipulated the probability of the action outcome to either pass the ball to the left or to the right side (i.e., 75%, 50%, 25%) and examined how this contextual information affected the influence of head orientation on pass direction judgments. Outcome probability information was either provided explicitly (Experiment 1) or implicitly (Experiment 2). Both experiments indicated an increased head-fake effect with increasing outcome probability. Moreover, the bias to respond in line with the player's head direction increased linearly with outcome probability. Also, discriminability between deceptive and genuine actions was poorer for high outcome probability (75%) associated with head orientation than for the 25% and 50% values. Last, a stronger response bias toward the higher probability side for deceptive trials than for genuine trials was only significant when the outcome probability information was processed implicitly in Experiment 2. The results of this study fit well with recent literature on contextual information in action prediction and are discussed in light of confirmation bias and signal detection theory.

The effects of simulated vision impairment on performance in football

Footballers with vision impairment (VI) are eligible to compete in the Para sport if they meet a minimum impairment criteria (MIC) based on measures of their visual acuity (VA) and/or visual field. Despite the requirements of the International Paralympic Committee Athlete Classification Code that each sport uses an evidence-based classification system, VI football continues to use a medical-based system that lacks evidence to demonstrate the relationship between impairment and performance in the sport. The aim of this study was to systematically simulate vision loss to establish the minimum level of impairment that would affect performance in futsal. Nineteen skilled sighted players completed tests of individual technical skill and anticipation performance under six levels of simulated blur that decreased both VA and contrast sensitivity (CS). VA needed to be reduced to a level of acuity that represents worse vision than that currently used for inclusion in VI football before meaningful decreases in performance were observed. CS did not have a clear effect on football performance. These findings produce the first evidence for the minimum impairment criteria in VI football and suggest a more severe degree of impairment may be required for the MIC.

A Bayesian computational model to investigate expert anticipation of a seemingly unpredictable ball bounce

During dynamic and time-constrained sporting tasks performers rely on both online perceptual information and prior contextual knowledge to make effective anticipatory judgments. It has been suggested that performers may integrate these sources of information in an approximately Bayesian fashion, by weighting available information sources according to their expected precision. In the present work, we extended Bayesian brain approaches to anticipation by using formal computational models to estimate how performers weighted different information sources when anticipating the bounce direction of a rugby ball. Both recreational (novice) and professional (expert) rugby players (n = 58) were asked to predict the bounce height of an oncoming rugby ball in a temporal occlusion paradigm. A computational model, based on a partially observable Markov decision process, was fitted to observed responses to estimate participants' weighting of online sensory cues and prior beliefs about ball bounce height. The results showed that experts were more sensitive to online sensory information, but that neither experts nor novices relied heavily on prior beliefs about ball trajectories in this task. Experts, but not novices, were observed to down-weight priors in their anticipatory decisions as later and more precise visual cues emerged, as predicted by Bayesian and active inference accounts of perception.

Contemporary pedagogy? The use of theory in practice: An evidence-informed perspective

Utilizing cognitive psychology as a foundation, this paper offers a deeper consideration of contemporary theoretical influences on coaching pedagogy. Countering recent dichotomies suggested between pedagogic approaches, we reintroduce key findings from the cognitive tradition and their implications for practice which coaches may find useful. Using cognitive load, novice and expert differences, desirable difficulty, and fidelity, we suggest that the lines drawn between different "pedagogies" may not be as sharp as suggested. Instead, we suggest that coaches avoid defining themselves as being aligned to a specific pedagogical or paradigmatic stance. We conclude by advocating for research informed practice, absent of strict theoretical boundaries and instead, considering contemporary pedagogy as drawing on the needs of the context, the experience of the coach and the best available evidence.

Reliance upon contextual information can impede visual anticipation

This study investigated whether skilled batsmen in a state cricket pathway could anticipate ball types when congruency of field-placings was manipulated with a bowler's action. Twenty-four male cricket batsmen were recruited who had played either first-class cricket (n = 6), were part of under 17 (n = 8) or under 19 (n = 10) state cricket squads. Participants completed a video-based temporal occlusion test where they were required to anticipate ball types from a swing bowler. In condition one, contextual field-placing information was presented to be congruent with the delivery type and bowler's action, whilst in condition two it was incongruent. Results did not reveal skill level differences across conditions for anticipation. In the congruent condition, all skill groups predicted above the chance level at the beginning and end of the bowler's delivery stride. In the incongruent condition, first-class players predicted above chance at the beginning of the bowler's delivery stride, and to a higher magnitude above chance compared to other skill groups at ball release. Under 17 and 19 players could not predict above chance at the start of the bowler's delivery stride with their magnitude of prediction lower than first-class players at ball release. Results indicate skilled batsmen find it challenging to integrate contextual and kinematic information to anticipate. This is likely due to greater emphasis placed upon contextual information in part supplied by data analysts. Findings have theoretical and practical implications respectively for lower body positioning for bat-ball interception and perceptual training to improve pick-up of kinematic cues.HIGHLIGHTSSkilled batsmen in a high-performance state cricket pathway could integrate congruent field-placings and bowler kinematics to anticipate ball types.First-class batsmen could integrate incongruent field-placing information to the start, but not the end, of the bowler's delivery action to anticipate ball types.Under 17 and 19 batsmen could not integrate incongruent field-placings to bowler kinematics to anticipate ball types.Skilled batsmen who cannot use kinematic information to anticipate ball types should be given visual-perceptual simulation training to accelerate performance.

Task-evoked pupillary responses track precision-weighted prediction errors and learning rate during interceptive visuomotor actions

In this study, we examined the relationship between physiological encoding of surprise and the learning of anticipatory eye movements. Active inference portrays perception and action as interconnected inference processes, driven by the imperative to minimise the surprise of sensory observations. To examine this characterisation of oculomotor learning during a hand-eye coordination task, we tested whether anticipatory eye movements were updated in accordance with Bayesian principles and whether trial-by-trial learning rates tracked pupil dilation as a marker of 'surprise'. Forty-four participants completed an interception task in immersive virtual reality that required them to hit bouncing balls that had either expected or unexpected bounce profiles. We recorded anticipatory eye movements known to index participants' beliefs about likely ball bounce trajectories. By fitting a hierarchical Bayesian inference model to the trial-wise trajectories of these predictive eye movements, we were able to estimate each individual's expectations about bounce trajectories, rates of belief updating, and precision-weighted prediction errors. We found that the task-evoked pupil response tracked prediction errors and learning rates but not beliefs about ball bounciness or environmental volatility. These findings are partially consistent with active inference accounts and shed light on how encoding of surprise may shape the control of action.

Skill-Based Differences in the Detection and Utilization of Opponent Action Preferences Following Increasing Exposure and Changes in Tendencies

We examined skill-based differences in the detection and utilization of contextual information over a period of increasing exposure to an opponent's action preferences in soccer. Moreover, we investigated the ability of athletes to adapt to changes in these action preferences over time. In an initial detection phase, the attacking opponent demonstrated a proclivity to either pass or dribble, with these preferences being reversed in a subsequent adaptation phase of the same length. Skilled soccer players showed superior anticipation accuracy across both phases compared with less-skilled counterparts. The skilled participants significantly enhanced their performance over both phases, despite a significant drop in performance immediately following the change in opponent action preferences. In contrast, the less-skilled group only improved over the detection phase. Gaze data revealed that the skilled participants fixated more on kinematically relevant areas, compared with the less-skilled group, and increased the time spent fixating the player "off the ball" following greater volumes of exposure. Our novel findings elaborate on how skilled performers use both action preferences and motion information to anticipate an opponent's impending actions in sport.