Reproductive Epidemiology in an Evolutionary Perspective: Why Bigger May Not Be Better

Reproduction after the loss of a child: a population-based matched cohort study

STUDY QUESTION

Is the death of a child associated with higher subsequent fertility?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Women who had lost a child had higher fertility both shortly after the loss and throughout the entire follow-up, independent of the child's age at the time of death.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Women who lose a child in the perinatal period often have another child shortly after. However, to our knowledge no previous study has investigated if the death of an older child affects reproductive behavior.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

The source population for this matched cohort study consisted of all women who gave birth in Denmark from 1978 to 2004 and in Sweden from 1973 to 2002 (N = 1 979 958). Women were followed through to the end of 2008 in Denmark and the end of 2006 in Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Women who had lost a child before the age of 45 years during the study period (exposed group; n = 36 511) were matched with up to five women who were from the same country and of similar age and family characteristics and had not lost a child at the time of matching (unexposed group; n = 182 522).

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

During follow-up, 74% of exposed and 46% of unexposed women had another birth (live- or stillbirth) after a gestation of 28 weeks or more. Compared with unexposed women, exposed women had a shorter interpregnancy interval and, consequently, a higher rate of conception leading to a birth (HR = 5.5 [95% CI: 5.4-5.6]). Rates for exposed women were higher from the first month following the child's death, but the largest difference was between 2 and 3 months after the event. This pattern was independent of the age of the deceased child. Exposed women had more subsequent children than unexposed, leading to a comparable number of living children at the end of follow-up.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The use of population-based registers allows for the inclusion of virtually all eligible women and nearly complete follow-up; the potential for selection bias is thus negligible. However, only pregnancies that led to a live birth or a stillbirth could be identified, thus fetal losses occurring before week 28 of gestation were missing.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our findings corroborate the previous evidence suggesting that women try to conceive again shortly after a perinatal death, and many succeed. In addition, this is the first study to investigate the reproductive trajectory after losing an older child. The current study indicates that most women who lose a child between the ages of 6 months and 5 years conceive shortly after the loss, and they have a comparable number of living children at the end of the follow-up compared to those who do not lose a child.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was supported by Grant ERC-2010-StG-260242 from the European Research Council, 176673 and 186200 from the Nordic Cancer Union, DFF-6110-00019 from the Danish Council for Independent Research, 904414 and 15199 from TrygFonden, Karen Elise Jensens Fond (2016), and the Program for Clinical Research Infrastructure (PROCRIN) established by the Lundbeck Foundation and the Novo Nordisk Foundation. The authors do not declare any conflicts of interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Evolutionary justifications for human reproductive limitations

Common human reproductive inefficiencies have multiple etiologies. Going against chance, many effects, such as polycystic ovaries, endometriosis, and folate metabolic issues, have genetic components, while aneuploid losses arise from diverse mitotic and meiotic errors at different stages, some transitory. This can be advantageous, since greater overall survival with fewer offspring can increase reproductive success. Benefits primarily accrue to mothers, who bear most child related costs, and for whom early losses are less costly than late. Different adaptations to different situations reflect human evolutionary history. For early speciation, periodic climate extremes repeatedly reduced resources, favoring limitations while contracted populations helped fix relevant genes. Later, under better conditions, evolving social cooperation could increase fecundity faster than it added resources, further supporting reproductive suppression through mitotic aneuploidy, with very early losses minimizing maternal costs. The grandmother hypothesis suggests benefits in limiting reproduction as maternal age increased pregnancy risks in order to support grandchildren as they arrived, selecting for maternal age-related meiotic aneuploidy. Finally, with variable short-term agricultural shortages, acute reproductive responses arose through chromatin "nutrient sensor"-regulated epigenetic effects that also shifted some lethal effects earlier, reducing both maternal and mutation load costs. Overall, despite suggestions to the contrary, it is likely that human selective pressures have not decreased with civilization, but that many of the costs have been shifted to early reproduction.

Implications of Using a Fetuses-at-Risk Approach When Fetuses Are Not at Risk

BACKGROUND

Gestational-age-specific rates of postnatal endpoints are sometimes estimated with denominators based on fetuses-at-risk (FAR), rather than live births. However, as infants can only be included in the numerator after they are born alive, interpretation of such rates is problematic.

METHODS

Using simple algebra it can be shown that, at each gestational week, FAR rates of postnatal endpoints are the product of the conventional risk of outcome among live births and the probability of live birth, which increases from near zero early in gestation to close to one in the final weeks. The consequences of such a pattern of live birth on FAR rates are further illustrated in hypothetical scenarios with known conditions.

RESULTS

FAR rates of postnatal endpoints will generally increase towards the end of pregnancy due to the rising probability of live birth, regardless of the 'true' effect of immaturity on risk. In the presence of an exposure that increases the probability of early birth, the same mechanism will cause FAR rates to be higher in the exposed group, even if the exposure has no effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Gestational-age-specific FAR rates of postnatal outcomes strongly depend on the probability of live birth. Thus, they reflect neither the causal effect of gestational length, nor that of a given exposure. Indeed, if an exposure shortens gestation, FAR rates will be higher in exposed infants even when the exposure has no impact on the outcome under study. These intrinsic limitations should be taken into account when applying FAR analyses to postnatal endpoints.

Invited Commentary: Troubling Trends in Birth Weight

Birth weight is a strong predictor of the health of newborns. Consequently, the report by Catov et al. in this issue of the Journal (Am J Epidemiol. 2016;183(1):15-23), in which they showed downward trends in birth weights in a Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, hospital from 1997 to 2011, raises concerns. The widening gap reported between birth weights of babies born to white and African-American women could correspond to a widening gap in actual health outcomes. However, if the relation between birth weight and health outcomes is not causal, these trends may be epiphenomena of limited concern.