Towards a unified perinatal theory: Reconciling the births-based and fetus-at-risk models of perinatal mortality

BACKGROUND

There is a need to reconcile the opposing perspectives of the births-based and fetuses-at-risk models of perinatal mortality and to formulate a coherent and unified perinatal theory.

METHODS

Information on births in the United States from 2004 to 2015 was used to calculate gestational age-specific perinatal death rates for low- and high-risk cohorts. Cubic splines were fitted to the fetuses-at-risk birth and perinatal death rates, and first and second derivatives were estimated. Births-based perinatal death rates, and fetuses-at-risk birth and perinatal death rates and their derivatives, were examined to identify potential inter-relationships.

RESULTS

The rate of change in the birth rate dictated the pattern of births-based perinatal death rates in a triphasic manner: increases in the first derivative of the birth rate at early gestation corresponded with exponential declines in perinatal death rates, the peak in the first derivative presaged the nadir in perinatal death rates, and late gestation declines in the first derivative coincided with an upturn in perinatal death rates. Late gestation increases in the first derivative of the fetuses-at-risk perinatal death rate matched the upturn in births-based perinatal death rates. Differences in birth rate acceleration/deceleration among low- and high-risk cohorts resulted in intersecting perinatal mortality curves.

CONCLUSION

The first derivative of the birth rate links a cohort's fetuses-at-risk perinatal death rate to its births-based perinatal death rate, and cohort-specific differences in birth rate acceleration/deceleration are responsible for the intersecting perinatal mortality curves paradox. This mechanistic explanation unifies extant models of perinatal mortality and provides diverse insights.

Implications of Using a Fetuses-at-Risk Approach When Fetuses Are Not at Risk

BACKGROUND

Gestational-age-specific rates of postnatal endpoints are sometimes estimated with denominators based on fetuses-at-risk (FAR), rather than live births. However, as infants can only be included in the numerator after they are born alive, interpretation of such rates is problematic.

METHODS

Using simple algebra it can be shown that, at each gestational week, FAR rates of postnatal endpoints are the product of the conventional risk of outcome among live births and the probability of live birth, which increases from near zero early in gestation to close to one in the final weeks. The consequences of such a pattern of live birth on FAR rates are further illustrated in hypothetical scenarios with known conditions.

RESULTS

FAR rates of postnatal endpoints will generally increase towards the end of pregnancy due to the rising probability of live birth, regardless of the 'true' effect of immaturity on risk. In the presence of an exposure that increases the probability of early birth, the same mechanism will cause FAR rates to be higher in the exposed group, even if the exposure has no effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Gestational-age-specific FAR rates of postnatal outcomes strongly depend on the probability of live birth. Thus, they reflect neither the causal effect of gestational length, nor that of a given exposure. Indeed, if an exposure shortens gestation, FAR rates will be higher in exposed infants even when the exposure has no impact on the outcome under study. These intrinsic limitations should be taken into account when applying FAR analyses to postnatal endpoints.

Does advanced maternal age confer a survival advantage to infants born at early gestation?

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have shown that older mothers who deliver at preterm gestation have lower neonatal mortality rates compared with younger mothers who deliver at preterm gestation. We examined the effect of maternal age on gestational age-specific perinatal mortality.

METHODS

We compared fetal, neonatal and perinatal mortality rates among singleton births in the United States, 2003-2005, to mothers aged ≥35 versus 20-29 years. The analysis was stratified by gestational age and perinatal mortality rates were contrasted by maternal age at earlier (22-33 weeks) and later gestation (≥34 weeks). Gestational age-specific perinatal mortality rates were calculated using the traditional perinatal formulation (deaths among births at any gestation divided by total births at that gestation) and also the fetuses-at-risk model (deaths among births at any gestation divided by fetuses-at-risk of death at that gestation).Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) for perinatal death.

RESULTS

Under the traditional approach, fetal death rates at 22-33 weeks were non-significantly lower among older mothers (AOR 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-1.03), while rates were significantly higher among older mothers at ≥34 weeks (AOR 1.66, 95% CI 1.56-1.76). Neonatal death rates were significantly lower among older compared with younger mothers at 22-33 weeks (AOR=0.93, 95% CI 0.88-0.98) but higher at ≥34 weeks (AOR 1.26, 95% CI 1.21-1.31). Under the fetuses-at-risk model, both rates were higher among older vs younger mothers at early gestation (AOR for fetal and neonatal mortality 1.35, 95% CI 1.27-1.43 and 1.31, 95% CI 1.24-1.38, respectively) and late gestation (AOR for fetal and neonatal mortality 1.66, 95% CI 1.56-1.76) and 1.21, 95% CI 1.14-1.29, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the traditional prognostic perspective on the risk of perinatal death among older versus younger mothers varies by gestational age at birth, the causal fetuses-at-risk model reveals a consistently elevated risk of perinatal death at all gestational ages among older mothers.