Ophthalmic artery Doppler for pre-eclampsia prediction at the first trimester: a Bayesian survival-time model

A prediction model for stillbirth based on first trimester pre-eclampsia combined screening

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the accuracy of combined models of maternal biophysical factors, ultrasound, and biochemical markers for predicting stillbirths.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of pregnant women undergoing first-trimester pre-eclampsia screening at 11-13 gestational weeks was conducted. Maternal characteristics and history, mean arterial pressure (MAP) measurement, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) ultrasound, maternal ophthalmic peak ratio Doppler, and placental growth factor (PlGF) serum were collected during the visit. Stillbirth was classified as placental dysfunction-related when it occurred with pre-eclampsia or birth weight <10th percentile. Combined prediction models were developed from significant variables in stillbirths, placental dysfunction-related, and controls. We used the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity based on a specific cutoff to evaluate the model's predictive performance by measuring the capacity to distinguish between stillbirths and live births.

RESULTS

There were 13 (0.79%) cases of stillbirth in 1643 women included in the analysis. The combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI, and PlGF, significantly contributed to the prediction of stillbirth. This model was a good predictor for all (including controls) types of stillbirth (AUC 0.879, 95% CI: 0.799-0.959, sensitivity of 99.3%, specificity of 38.5%), and an excellent predictor for placental dysfunction-related stillbirth (AUC 0.984, 95% CI: 0.960-1.000, sensitivity of 98.5, specificity of 85.7).

CONCLUSION

Screening at 11-13 weeks' gestation by combining maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI, and PlGF, can predict a high proportion of stillbirths. Our model has good accuracy for predicting stillbirths, predominantly placental dysfunction-related stillbirths.

Incidence and first trimester risk factors of stillbirth in Indonesia

OBJECTIVES

To determine the incidence and the risk factors of stillbirth from maternal biophysical, ultrasound, and biochemical markers at 11-13 weeks of gestation in the Indonesian population.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of pregnant women for first-trimester preeclampsia screening at 11-13 weeks of gestation in some clinics and hospital in Jakarta. Maternal characteristics and history, mean arterial pressure (MAP) measurement, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) ultrasound, maternal ophthalmic peak ratio (Oph-PR) Doppler, and placental growth factor (PlGF) serum were collected during the visit. Stillbirth was classified into placental dysfunction-related when it occurred with preeclampsia or birth weight <10th percentile and non-placental dysfunction-related. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to determine the risk factors associated with stillbirth.

RESULTS

Of 1,643 eligible participants, 13 (0.79 %) stillbirth cases were reported. More than half of the stillbirths (7) were placental dysfunction-related. After adjusted with maternal age, body mass index (BMI), and parity status, chronic hypertension (aOR (adjusted odds ratio)) 24.41, 95 % CI {confidence interval} 5.93-100.43), previous pregnancy with preeclampsia (aOR 15.79, 95 % CI 4.42-56.41), MAP >101.85 (aOR 26.67, 95 % CI 8.26-86.06), UtA-PI >1.90 (aOR 10.68, 95 % CI 2.34-48.58, and PlGF <28.77 pg/mL (aOR 18.60, 95 % CI 5.59-61.92) were associated with stillbirth.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of stillbirth in the population is comparable to studies conducted in developed countries. Most routine variables assessed at the 11-13 weeks combined screening for preeclampsia are associated with the risk of stillbirth.