Improving the prediction of persistent and recurrent differentiated thyroid cancer using the American Thyroid Association 2015 risk stratification system

Low Mitotic Activity in Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Marker for Aggressive Features and Recurrence

CONTEXT

The significance of low mitotic activity in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is largely undefined.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the behavioral landscape of PTC with low mitotic activity compared to that of no- and high-mitotic activity.

METHODS

A single-institution consecutive series of PTC patients from 2018-2022 was reviewed. Mitotic activity was defined as no mitoses, low (1-2 mitoses/2 mm2) or high (≥3 mitoses/2 mm2) per the World Health Organization. The 2015 American Thyroid Association risk stratification was applied to the cohort, and clinicopathologic features were compared between groups. For patients with ≥6 months follow-up, Cox regression analyses for recurrence were performed.

RESULTS

640 PTCs were included - 515 (80.5%) no mitotic activity, 110 (17.2%) low mitotic activity, and 15 (2.3%) high mitotic activity. Overall, low mitotic activity exhibited rates of clinicopathologic features including vascular invasion, gross extrathyroidal extension, and lymph node metastases in between those of no- and high-mitotic activity. PTCs with low mitotic activity had higher rates of intermediate- and high-risk ATA risk stratification compared to those with no mitotic activity (p < 0.001). Low mitotic activity PTCs also had higher recurrence rates (15.5% vs. 4.5%, p < 0.001). Low mitotic activity was associated with recurrence, independent of the ATA risk stratification (HR 2.96; 95% CI 1.28-6.87, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Low mitotic activity is relatively common in PTC and its behavior lies within a spectrum between no- and high-mitotic activity. Given its association with aggressive clinicopathologic features and recurrence, low mitotic activity should be considered when risk stratifying PTC patients for recurrence.

Impact of the number of intermediate risk factors on outcome of papillary thyroid cancer

PURPOSE

The 2015 American Thyroid Association risk stratification system (2015-RSS) is used to assess the tumor recurrence rate and guide the initial treatment. At the current moment, patients with one or multiple intermediate risk factors (IRF) have the same treatment. This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of the number of IRF characteristics on tumor persistence or recurrence rates.

METHODS

Patients with intermediate risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) were selected and analyzed, furthermore, they were divided into two subgroups, one with 1-2 IRF and another with ≥3 IRF. Those data were analyzed in relation to response to therapy at the end of the first year and in last appointment, time to reach non evidence of disease (NED) state and time in NED state.

RESULTS

A total of 257 patients were evaluated. Extrathyroidal invasion, vascular invasion, the total number of IRF and the subgroup of ≥3 IRF were associated with non-excellent response in last consultation; IRF lymph node metastasis was associated with non-excellent response in the first year and in last appointment and prolonged time in NED state; vascular invasion was associated with a shorter time in NED state; total number of IRF and aggressive histology were related to delay in the achievement of NED state.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher number of IRF was a predictive factor of non-excellent response in the last visit and was associated with longer time to reach the NED state. Those data suggest a benefit from closer follow-up and more intensive treatment in these patients.

Is radioiodine ablation with 1.1 GBq (30 mCi) 131I necessary in low-risk thyroid cancer patients? Results from a long-term follow-up prospective study

BACKGROUND

In patients with low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), remnant ablation with radioiodine (RA) after total thyroidectomy (TT) is controversial. No benefits have been demonstrated in terms of mortality or disease-free survival. Recent evidence found that RA did not improve mid-term outcomes.

PURPOSE

To evaluate initial response to treatment and long-term follow-up status in low-risk DTC patients after TT vs. TT + RA with ¹³¹I 1.11 GBq (30 mCi).

METHODS

Prospective multicenter non-randomized study; 174 low-risk DTC that underwent TT were recruited an divided in two groups according to RA (87 ablated and 87 non-ablated). Response to treatment was evaluated at 6-18 months after thyroidectomy and at the end of follow-up with measurements of thyroglobulin, and anti-thyroglobulin antibodies levels, and neck ultrasonography.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics of both groups were similar. Ablated patients: median age 45.5 years, 84% females, 95.4% papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), mean tumor size 16 mm; non-ablated: median age 45 years, 88.5% females, 96.6% PTC, mean tumor size 14 mm. Response to initial treatment was similar between both groups, with < 2% of structural incomplete response. Final status was evaluated in 139 cases (median follow-up of 60 months). Among ablated patients, 82.8% had no evidence of disease (NED), 12% had an indeterminate response (IR) and 5% a biochemical incomplete response (BIR). Non-ablated patients had NED in 90%, IR in 8.7% and BIR in 1.2%. No statistical difference was found between groups (p = 0.29). No patient had evidence of structural disease at the end of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the recommendation against routine RA in low-risk DTC patients.

The Prospective Implementation of the 2015 ATA Guidelines and Modified ATA Recurrence Risk Stratification System for Treatment of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer in a Canadian Tertiary Care Referral Setting

Objective: To present clinical outcomes of the prospective implementation of the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines for the management of thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) using the modified ATA recurrence risk (RR) stratification system. Methods: We prospectively analyzed 612 patients with DTC treated between April 2017 and December 2021 in Calgary, Alberta. Each patient was prospectively assigned a modified ATA RR and American Joint Committee Cancer 8th edition stage. Initial risk stratification and consideration of the 2015 ATA guidelines guided surgical management as well as the indication for and dose of radioiodine (RAI) and other adjuvant therapies. Patients were assessed for their response to treatment (RTT) at 2-years postoperatively. Results: There were 479 patients who had 2-year follow-up data and were included in the study. Of these patients, there were 253 (53%) low-, 129 (27%) intermediate-, and 97 (20%) high-RR patients. Of these, 227 patients (47%) underwent total thyroidectomy (TTX) plus RAI, 178 (37%) underwent TTX only, and 74 (16%) underwent lobectomy. The RTT at 2 years was excellent for 89% (66) of patients with lobectomy, 84% (149) for TTX only, and 53% (121) for TTX plus RAI. Among 253 patients who were deemed low RR, 85% (216) had excellent RTT, 13% (32) indeterminate RTT, 2% (4) biochemical incomplete RTT, and 1 patient had structural incomplete RTT. The intermediate RR group had the following RTT outcomes: 64% (83) excellent, 23% (30) indeterminate, 6% (7) biochemical incomplete, and 7% (9) structural incomplete. The high RR group had the worst RTT outcomes, with 38% (37) excellent, 19% (18) indeterminate, 10% (10) biochemical incomplete, and 33% (32) structural incomplete RTT. Conclusions: The 2015 ATA RR stratification system is useful for predicting disease status at 2-year post-treatment in patients with DTC. The 2015 ATA guidelines and modified ATA RR stratification treatment recommendations may reduce thyroid cancer overtreatment by including lobectomy as a definitive treatment option for low-risk thyroid cancers and selective use of RAI for intermediate and high-risk patients.

A Retrospective Cohort Study with Validation of Predictors of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Outcomes

Background: The goal of radioactive iodine (RAI) in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is to treat metastasis and reduce recurrence risk. International guidelines provide broad risk stratification to aid treatment decisions, but a more nuanced approach to individualize care is warranted. We developed a predictive risk model for DTC. Methods: We performed a retrospective multivariable analysis of 899 patients who received RAI after thyroidectomy at a quaternary center in Australia between 2008 and 2016. Collected data included age, gender, histology, stimulated thyroglobulin (sTg), and 8th American Joint Committee Cancer (AJCC) staging. The ATA Modified Initial Risk (ATA) was calculated retrospectively. Recurrence was defined as clinically significant progression requiring either surgical intervention or administration of a second activity of RAI. Synchronous metastasis was defined as distant metastasis (i.e., outside of the neck) that was present at the time of diagnosis on structural imaging or initial post-iodine treatment scan. The features significantly associated with synchronous metastasis or recurrence were employed in the generation of a predictive risk model. A separate cohort of 393 patients who received RAI in 2017-2021 was used for validation. Results: On multivariate analysis, sTg ≥10 μg/L, extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and lymph node involvement predicted recurrence. Independent of ATA, patients with sTg ≥10 μg/L had a shorter disease-free survival (DFS) than those with sTg <10 μg/L (p < 0.001). The ETE stratified by four histological categories was significantly associated with worse DFS (p < 0.001). In a subset of patients, the presence of thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) did not influence recurrence in patients with sTg <10 μg/L. On multivariate analysis, widespread ETE, sTg ≥10 μg/L, multifocal papillary thyroid cancer and follicular thyroid cancer were positively associated with synchronous metastasis. A predictive risk model was developed to estimate synchronous metastasis/recurrence risk and validated successfully in the second cohort. Conclusions: Our novel predictive risk model modifies and extends ATA stratification by including sTg and ETE, which we found to be independent predictors of both recurrence and synchronous metastasis in DTC.

Risk-stratified papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: post-operative management and treatment outcome in a single center

PURPOSE

This article aims to review and assess the post-operative management and treatment outcomes of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) in risk-stratified patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the data of PTMC patients who underwent thyroid surgery with or without radioactive iodine treatment (RAI) in a single center between January 2011 and December 2017. Demographic and clinicopathologic data were collected. Risk stratification according to the 2015 American Thyroid Association guideline was applied.

RESULTS

Three hundred forty PTMC patients were included. Post-operative RAI was performed in 216/340 (63.53%) patients. In the non-RAI scenario, there were 122 low-risk and two intermediate-risk patients. In total, 261 (76.77%), 57 (16.76%), and 22 (6.47%) patients were classified as low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. With a median follow-up time of 36 months (interquartile range: 23, 52), we found unfavorable outcomes (evidenced by imaging or out-of-range serum tumor marker levels: high thyroglobulin [Tg] or rising Tg antibody [TgAb] levels) in 8/340 (2.35%) patients, all of which received RAI. PTMC patients with unfavorable outcomes were stratified as low risk (4/261 [1.53%]), intermediate risk (1/57 [1.75%]), or high risk (3/22 [13.64%]). One death occurred in a patient with initial distant metastasis in the high-risk group. Initial high-risk stratification and initial stimulated Tg (of at least 10 ng/mL) were demonstrated as independent predictors for PTMC unfavorable outcomes (persistent or recurrent disease). Five patients with unfavorable outcomes (four with persistent disease and one with recurrent disease) had abnormal Tg or TgAb values despite unremarkable imaging findings. Moreover, 79/124 (63.71%) patients in the non-RAI scenario were only followed up with neck ultrasound.

CONCLUSIONS

In general, at least 98% of low-risk and intermediate-risk PTMC patients showed favorable outcomes without persistent or recurrent disease, defined by either imaging or serum tumor markers. Nevertheless, aggressive disease could occur in few PTMC patients. Decisions on post-operative management and follow-up may be guided by initial high-risk stratification and initial stimulated Tg levels (≥10 ng/mL) as independent predictors for PTMC unfavorable outcomes. Monitoring using both imaging and serum tumor markers is crucial and should be implemented for patients with PTMC.