Understanding the potential impact of climate change on the behavior and demography of social species: The pied babbler (Turdoides bicolor) as a case study

High temperatures during early development reduce adult cognitive performance and reproductive success in a wild animal population

Global warming is rapidly changing the phenology, distribution, behaviour and demography of wild animal populations. Recent studies in wild animals have shown that high temperatures can induce short-term cognitive impairment, and captive studies have demonstrated that heat exposure during early development can lead to long-term cognitive impairment. Given that cognition underpins behavioural flexibility and can be directly linked to fitness, understanding how high temperatures during early life might impact adult cognitive performance in wild animals is a critical next step to predict wildlife responses to climate change. Here, we investigated the relationship between temperatures experienced during development, adult cognitive performance, and reproductive success in wild southern pied babblers (Turdoides bicolor). We found that higher mean daily maximum temperatures during nestling development led to long-term cognitive impairment in associative learning performance, but not reversal learning performance. Additionally, a higher number of hot days (exceeding 35.5 °C, temperature threshold at which foraging efficiency and offspring provisioning decline) during post-fledging care led to reduced reproductive success in adulthood. We did not find evidence that low reproductive success was linked to impaired associative learning performance: associative learning performance was not related to reproductive success. In contrast, reversal learning performance was negatively related to reproductive success in breeding adults. This suggests that reproduction can carry a cost in terms of reduced performance in cognitively demanding tasks, confirming previous evidence in this species. Taken together, these findings indicate that naturally occurring high temperatures during early development have long-term negative effects on cognition and reproductive success in wild animals. Compounding effects of high temperatures on current nestling mortality and on the long-term cognitive and reproductive performance of survivors are highly concerning given ongoing global warming.

High temperatures are associated with reduced cognitive performance in wild southern pied babblers

Global temperatures are increasing rapidly. While considerable research is accumulating regarding the lethal and sublethal effects of heat on wildlife, its potential impact on animal cognition has received limited attention. Here, we tested wild southern pied babblers (Turdoides bicolor) on three cognitive tasks (associative learning, reversal learning and inhibitory control) under naturally occurring heat stress and non-heat stress conditions. We determined whether cognitive performance was explained by temperature, heat dissipation behaviours, individual and social attributes, or proxies of motivation. We found that temperature, but not heat dissipation behaviours, predicted variation in associative learning performance. Individuals required on average twice as many trials to learn an association when the maximum temperature during testing exceeded 38°C compared with moderate temperatures. Higher temperatures during testing were also associated with reduced inhibitory control performance, but only in females. By contrast, we found no temperature-related decline in performance in the reversal learning task, albeit individuals reached learning criterion in only 14 reversal learning tests. Our findings provide novel evidence of temperature-mediated cognitive impairment in a wild animal and indicate that its occurrence depends on the cognitive trait examined and individual sex.

Climate change is predicted to cause population collapse in a cooperative breeder

It has been suggested that animals may have evolved cooperative breeding strategies in response to extreme climatic conditions. Climate change, however, may push species beyond their ability to cope with extreme climates, and reduce the group sizes in cooperatively breeding species to a point where populations are no longer viable. Predicting the impact of future climates on these species is challenging as modelling the impact of climate change on their population dynamics requires information on both group- and individual-level responses to climatic conditions. Using a single-sex individual-based model incorporating demographic responses to ambient temperature in an endangered species, the African wild dog Lycaon pictus, we show that there is a threshold temperature above which populations of the species are predicted to collapse. For simulated populations with carrying capacities equivalent to the median size of real-world populations (nine packs), extinction risk increases once temperatures exceed those predicted in the best-case climate warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6). The threshold is higher (between RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) for larger simulated populations (30 packs), but 84% of real-world populations number <30 packs. Simulated populations collapsed because, at high ambient temperatures, juvenile survival was so low that packs were no longer recruiting enough individuals to persist, leading them to die out. This work highlights the importance of social dynamics in determining impacts of climatic variables on social species, and the critical role that recruitment can play in driving population-level impacts of climate change. Population models parameterised on long-term data are essential for predicting future population viability under climate change.

Helpers don't help when it's hot in a cooperatively breeding bird, the Southern Pied Babbler

Cooperative breeding, where more than two individuals invest in rearing a single brood, occurs in many bird species globally and often contributes to improved breeding outcomes. However, high temperatures are associated with poor breeding outcomes in many species, including cooperative species. We used data collected over three austral summer breeding seasons to investigate the contribution that helpers make to daytime incubation in a cooperatively breeding species, the Southern Pied Babbler Turdoides bicolor, and the ways in which their contribution is influenced by temperature. Helpers spent a significantly higher percentage of their time foraging (41.8 ± 13.7%) and a significantly lower percentage of their time incubating (18.5 ± 18.8%) than members of the breeding pair (31.3 ± 11% foraging and 37.4 ± 15.7% incubating). In groups with only one helper, the helper's contribution to incubation was similar to that of breeders. However, helpers in larger groups contributed less to incubation, individually, with some individuals investing no time in incubation on a given observation day. Helpers significantly decrease their investment in incubation on hot days (>35.5°C), while breeders tend to maintain incubation effort as temperatures increase. Our results demonstrate that pied babblers share the workload of incubation unequally between breeders and helpers, and this inequity is more pronounced during hot weather. These results may help to explain why recent studies have found that larger group size does not buffer against the impacts of high temperatures in this and other cooperatively breeding species.

Collapse of Breeding Success in Desert-Dwelling Hornbills Evident Within a Single Decade

Rapid anthropogenic climate change potentially severely reduces avian breeding success. While the consequences of high temperatures and drought are reasonably well-studied within single breeding seasons, their impacts over decadal time scales are less clear. We assessed the effects of air temperature (Tair) and drought on the breeding output of southern yellow-billed hornbills (Tockus leucomelas; hornbills) in the Kalahari Desert over a decade (2008–2019). We aimed to document trends in breeding performance in an arid-zone bird during a time of rapid global warming and identify potential drivers of variation in breeding performance. The breeding output of our study population collapsed during the monitoring period. Comparing the first three seasons (2008–2011) of monitoring to the last three seasons (2016–2019), the mean percentage of nest boxes that were occupied declined from 52% to 12%, nest success from 58% to 17%, and mean fledglings produced per breeding attempt from 1.1 to 0.4. Breeding output was negatively correlated with increasing days on which Tmax (mean maximum daily Tair) exceeded the threshold Tair at which male hornbills show a 50% likelihood of engaging in heat dissipation behavior [i.e., panting (Tthresh; Tair = 34.5°C)] and the occurrence of drought within the breeding season, as well as later dates for entry into the nest cavity (i.e., nest initiation) and fewer days post-hatch, spent incarcerated in the nest by the female parent. The apparent effects of high Tair were present even in non-drought years; of the 115 breeding attempts that were recorded, all 18 attempts that had ≥ 72% days during the attempt on which Tmax &gt; Tthresh failed (equivalent to Tmax during the attempt ≥ 35.7°C). This suggests that global warming was likely the primary driver of the recent, rapid breeding success collapse. Based on current warming trends, the Tmax threshold of 35.7°C, above which no successful breeding attempts were recorded, will be exceeded during the entire hornbill breeding season by approximately 2027 at our study site. Therefore, our findings support the prediction that climate change may drive rapid declines and cause local extinctions despite the absence of direct lethal effects of extreme heat events.

Prenatal environmental conditions underlie alternative reproductive tactics that drive the formation of a mixed-kin cooperative society

Although animal societies often evolve due to limited natal dispersal that results in kin clustering and facilitates cooperation among relatives, many species form cooperative groups with low kin structure. These groups often comprise residents and immigrants of the same sex that compete for breeding opportunities. To understand how these mixed-kin societies form, we investigated the causes and fitness consequences of dispersal decisions in male cooperatively breeding superb starlings (Lamprotornis superbus) inhabiting a climatically unpredictable environment. We show that the two alternative reproductive tactics-natal dispersal or philopatry-exhibit reproductive trade-offs resulting in equivalent lifetime inclusive fitness. Unexpectedly, an individual's tactic is related to the prenatal environment its parents experience before laying rather than the environment it experiences as a juvenile. Individuals that adopt the tactic not predicted by prenatal environmental conditions have lower fitness. Ultimately, climate-driven oscillating selection appears to stabilize mixed-kin societies despite the potential for social conflict.

Exposure to cumulative stressors affects the laying phenology and incubation behaviour of an Arctic-breeding marine bird

Wildlife are exposed to multiple stressors across life-history stages, the effects of which can be amplified as human activity surges globally. In Arctic regions, increasing air and ocean temperatures, more severe weather systems, and exposure to environmental contaminants all represent stressors occurring simultaneously. While Arctic vertebrates, including marine birds, are expected to be at risk of adverse effects from these individual stressors, few studies have researched their combined impacts on breeding behaviour and reproductive success. The interactive effects of environmental conditions and mercury (Hg) contamination on laying phenology and incubation behaviour were examined in female common eiders (Somateria mollissima, mitiq, ᒥᑎᖅ ᐊᒪᐅᓕᒡᔪᐊᖅ) nesting at Canada's largest Arctic breeding colony. Conditions with higher pre-breeding air temperatures were linked to females with higher egg Hg concentrations laying earlier than those with lower Hg values. Furthermore, examination of a total of 190 days of incubation behaviour from 61 eiders across two years revealed a negative relationship between wind speed and the frequency of incubation interruptions. Importantly, exposure to higher air temperatures combined with lower Hg concentrations was significantly correlated with increased incubation interruptions. Although previous research has shown that warmer spring temperatures could afford lower quality females more time to improve body condition to successfully lay, results suggest these females may face stronger cumulative fitness costs during incubation in warmer years, potentially in combination with the effects of Hg on physiological stress and hormone secretion. This study highlights how multiple stressors exposure, driven by human-induced environmental changes, can have a complex influence on reproduction.

Population level consequences of facultatively cooperative behaviour in a stochastic environment

The social environment in which individuals live affects their fitness and in turn population dynamics as a whole. Birds with facultative cooperative breeding can live in social groups with dominants, subordinate helpers that assist with the breeding of others, and subordinate non-helpers. Helping behaviour benefits dominants through increased reproductive rates and reduced extrinsic mortality, such that cooperative breeding might have evolved in response to unpredictable, harsh conditions affecting reproduction and/or survival of the dominants. Additionally, there may be different costs and benefits to both helpers and non-helpers, depending on the time-scale. For example, early-life costs might be compensated by later-life benefits. These differential effects are rarely analysed in the same study. We examined whether helping behaviour affects population persistence in a stochastic environment and whether there are direct fitness consequences of different life-history tactics adopted by helpers and non-helpers. We parameterised a matrix population model describing the population dynamics of female Seychelles warblers Acrocephalus sechellensis, birds that display facultative cooperative breeding. The stochastic density-dependent model is defined by a (st)age structure that includes life-history differences between helpers and non-helpers and thus can estimate the demographic mechanisms of direct benefits of helping behaviour. We found that population dynamics are strongly influenced by stochastic variation in the reproductive rates of the dominants, that helping behaviour promotes population persistence and that there are only early-life differences in the direct fitness of helpers and non-helpers. Through a matrix population model, we captured multiple demographic rates simultaneously and analysed their relative importance in determining population dynamics of these cooperative breeders. Disentangling early-life versus lifetime effects of individual tactics sheds new light on the costs and benefits of helping behaviour. For example, the finding that helpers and non-helpers have similar lifetime reproductive outputs and that differences in reproductive values between the two life-history tactics arise only in early life suggests that overall, helpers and non-helpers have a similar balance of costs and benefits when analysing direct benefits. We recommend analysing the consequence of different life-history tactics, during both early life and over the lifetime, as analyses of these different time frames may produce conflicting results.

Direct and indirect effects of high temperatures on fledging in a cooperatively breeding bird

High temperatures and low rainfall consistently constrain reproduction in arid-zone bird species. Understanding the mechanisms underlying this pattern is critical for predicting how climate change will influence population persistence and to inform conservation and management. In this study, we analyzed Southern Pied Babbler Turdoides bicolor nestling survival, daily growth rate and adult investment behavior during the nestling period over three austral summer breeding seasons. High temperatures were associated with lower body mass, shorter tarsi, and reduced daily growth rates of nestlings. Our piecewise structural equation models suggested that direct impacts of temperature had the strongest influence on nestling size and daily growth rates for both 5-day-old and 11-day-old nestlings, followed by temperature-related adjustments to provisioning rates by adults. Rainfall and group size influenced the behavior of provisioning adults but did not influence nestling growth or survival. Adjustments to adult provisioning strategies did not compensate for direct negative effects of high air temperatures on nestling size or daily growth rates. Detailed mechanistic data like these allow us to model the pathways by which high temperature causes nest failure. In turn, this could allow us to design targeted conservation action to effectively mitigate climate effects.

Dehydration risk is associated with reduced nest attendance and hatching success in a cooperatively breeding bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor

High air temperatures have measurable negative impacts on reproduction in wild animal populations, including during incubation in birds. Understanding the mechanisms driving these impacts requires comprehensive knowledge of animal physiology and behaviour under natural conditions. We used a novel combination of a non-invasive doubly labelled water (DLW) technique, nest temperature data and field-based behaviour observations to test effects of temperature, rainfall and group size on physiology and behaviour during incubation in southern pied babblers Turdoides bicolor, a cooperatively breeding passerine endemic to the arid savanna regions of southern Africa. The proportion of time that clutches were incubated declined as air temperatures increased, a behavioural pattern traditionally interpreted as a benefit of ambient incubation. However, we show that (i) clutches had a <50% chance of hatching when exposed to daily maximum air temperatures of >35.3°C; (ii) pied babbler groups incubated their nests almost constantly (99% of daylight hours) except on hot days; (iii) operative temperatures in unattended nests frequently exceeded 40.5°C, above which bird embryos are at risk of death; (iv) pied babblers incubating for long periods of time failed to maintain water balance on hot days; and (v) pied babblers from incubating groups lost mass on hot days. These results suggest that pied babblers might leave their nests during hot periods to lower the risk of dehydration associated with prolonged incubation at high operative temperatures. As mean air temperatures increase and extreme heat events become more frequent under climate change, birds will likely incur ever greater thermoregulatory costs of incubation, leading to compromised nest attendance and increased potential for eggs to overheat, with implications for nest success and, ultimately, population persistence.