A collection of evidence for the impact of the economic recession on road fatalities in Great Britain

Health effect of public sports services and public health services: empirical evidence from China

There is no clear explanation for the extraordinary rebound in China's population mortality over the past decade. This paper utilizes panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2020 to determine the distinct impacts of public sports services (PSS), public health services (PMS), and their interaction on population mortality. Empirical results show that public sports services significantly reduce mortality. Every unit increase in public sports services reduces mortality by about 2.3%. It is characterized by delayed realization. Public health services were surprisingly associated with a rebound in mortality. Further studies found strong health effect from interaction of public sports and health services. The effect was significantly strengthened in areas with fewer extreme temperatures or developed economy. The findings have important policy implications for the high-quality development of public sports and health services. It also emphasizes integration of sports and medicine and mitigates health risks associated with extreme temperatures.

Road traffic mortality and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the United States

Previous studies have shown that financial turbulence is associated with a short-term increase in road traffic collisions, largely due to drivers' emotional state, distraction, sleep deprivation and alcohol consumption. In this paper we advance this debate by studying the association between economic uncertainty and road traffic mortality in the United States. We used a State-level uncertainty index and State fatalities for the period 2008-2017 and found that a one standard deviation increase in economic uncertainty is associated with an additional 0.013 monthly deaths per 100,000 people per State, on average (a 1.1% increase) - or 40 more monthly deaths in total nationwide. Results are robust to different model specifications. Our findings show that, similar to drink-driving, it is important to raise awareness about driving when distracted due to financial worries and during periods of economic uncertainty.

Clinico-Etiological Profile of Children Admitted with Head Injury in a Tertiary Health Care Centre During the COVID Pandemic

Background The mechanism of injury, type of pathology, mode of management and specific problems, in the pediatric age group make these a unique population. The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown caused a significant reduction in the number of road traffic accidents during the same period and the resultant number of head injuries in children.

Methods This was a descriptive study of 76 consecutive pediatric patients admitted with head injury between June and December 2020. Children under 18 years with head injury admitted in our hospital were included.

Results The most common etiology of pediatric head injury was found to be fall from height (61.8%) followed by road traffic accidents (27.6%). The most common age group affected was 1 to 5 years with a mean of 6.3 ± 5 years. Road traffic accidents were commonly seen in the 15 to 18 age group. The Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) of 1 (death) was seen in one patient (1.3%) and low disability in 98.7% of patients.

Conclusion Falls formed the most important cause of pediatric head injury during this pandemic, and carefulness on the part of parents can help avoid dangerous consequences for the children. Recovery with minimal disability was observed in approximately all cases in this study. The number of severe traumatic brain injury was very low in this study. This can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic causing significant reduction in road traffic accidents and the number of severe head injury

Analysis of the regional distribution of road traffic mortality and associated factors in Japan

BACKGROUND

Regional differences in road traffic (RT) mortality among municipalities have not been revealed in Japan. Further, the association between RT mortality and regional socioeconomic characteristics has not been investigated. We analyzed geographic differences in RT mortality and its associated factors using the Vital Statistics in Japan.

METHODS

We used data on RT mortality by sex and municipality in Japan from 2013 to 2017. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of RT for each municipality by sex using an Empirical Bayes method. The SMRs were mapped onto a map of Japan to show the geographic differences. In addition, an ecological study investigated the municipal characteristics associated with the SMR using demographic socioeconomic, medical, weather, and vehicular characteristics as explanatory variables. The ecological study used a spatial statistical model.

RESULTS

The mapping revealed that the number of municipalities with a high SMR of RT (SMR > 2) was larger in men than in women. In addition, SMRs of capital areas (Kanagawa and Tokyo prefectures) tended to be low in men and women. The regression analysis revealed that population density was negatively associated with the SMR in men and women, and the degree of the association was the largest among explanatory variables. In contrast, there was a positive association between the proportion of non-Japanese persons and SMR. The proportions of lower educational level (elementary school or junior high school graduates), agriculture, forestry, and fisheries workers, service workers, and blue-collar workers were positively associated with the SMR in men. The proportion of unemployed persons was negatively associated with the SMR in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Socioeconomic characteristics are associated with geographic differences in RT mortality particularly in men. The results suggested preventive measures targeted at men of low socioeconomic status and non-Japanese persons are needed to decrease RT mortality further.

Long-term impact of the 2008 economic crisis in Spain on road traffic collisions mortality by socioeconomic position

We aimed to assess the effect of the 2008 crisis on road traffic collision (RTC) mortality in Spain, by socioeconomic position (SEP) and type of road use. This prospective, country-wide study covered all adults living in Spain and aged ≥30 years in November 2001. The long-term effect of the crisis was assessed by measuring the monthly percentage change (MPC) in RTC mortality between the pre-crisis (2002-2007) and crisis period (2008-2011). During the recession, RTC mortality fell more in people with low compared to high SEP, so MPCs difference between periods were of a higher magnitude in the low compared to high SEP groups, especially among men motorcyclists. RTC mortality trends were favorable following the 2008 crisis, particularly among low-SEP groups. In men motorcyclists, the upward trend of the pre-crisis period reversed course.

Drink driving during the COVID-19 pandemic

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, static roadside random breath testing (RBT) was temporarily suspended between 16 March and 12 June 2020 in Queensland, Australia. In addition to restrictions on travel and social interactions, this provided a unique opportunity to examine changes in drink-driving behaviour during and after a reduction in RBT operations in the community. Three cross-sectional surveys were disseminated at different time points to examine these differences. Over three surveys, 1193 Queensland licensed drivers aged 18 years and over (M = 36.9, SD = 16.7) responded. While overall drink driving decreased over the three survey periods, there were groups where drink driving, or the intention to drink drive, increased over the same period. The overall decrease could be expected as a result of community restrictions on socialising and travel behaviours. In each of the surveys, prior engagement in drink driving was the strongest predictor of intention to increase future engagement and actual engagement. These drink drivers were more likely aged 18-24 years, male, and held restricted licensure. Notably, a small number of participants who reported drink driving, and/or intention to drink drive during the survey period, reported not having engaged in this behaviour previously. This suggested an increased likelihood of drink drivers experiencing punishment avoidance which may promote future engagement in this behaviour. Despite a decrease in social opportunities to drink, and the suspension of highly visible roadside breath testing sites, drink driving persisted. This research highlights the importance of RBTs as a general deterrent for drink driving.

Macroeconomic changes and educational inequalities in traffic fatalities in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015: a register-based study

This study examined trends and inequalities in road traffic accident (RTA) mortality in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland in relation to large-scale macroeconomic changes in the 2000s. Educational inequalities in RTA mortality in 2000-2003, 2004-2007, 2008-2011 and 2012-2015 among 30-74 year olds were examined using census-linked longitudinal mortality data and by estimating the relative and slope index of inequality. Overall RTA mortality decreased substantially between 2000-2003 and 2012-2015. From 2004-2007 to 2008-2011, the RTA mortality decline accelerated but was larger in the Baltic countries. Among men the RTA mortality decline was mostly driven by a larger fall among the high and middle educated. Among women, the changes in RTA mortality by educational level had no clear pattern. From 2000-2003 to 2012-2015 relative educational inequalities in RTA mortality increased among men, although more in the Baltic countries. Among women the pattern was mixed across countries. Absolute inequalities fell in all countries among both sexes. Educational inequalities in male RTA mortality may be growing because of increasingly less access to safer cars and a more hazardous driving culture among the lower educated.

Exploring the Impact of Climate and Extreme Weather on Fatal Traffic Accidents

Climate change and the extreme weather have a negative impact on road traffic safety, resulting in severe road traffic accidents. In this study, a negative binomial model and a log-change model are proposed to analyse the impact of various factors on fatal traffic accidents. The dataset used in this study includes the fatal traffic accident frequency, social development indicators and climate indicators in California and Arizona. The results show that both models can provide accurate fitting results. Climate variables (i.e., average temperature and standard precipitation 24) can significantly affect the frequency of fatal traffic accidents. Non-climate variables (i.e., beer consumption, rural Vehicle miles travelled ratio, and vehicle performance) also have a significant impact. The modelling results can provide decision-making guidelines for the transportation management agencies to improve road traffic safety.

Why the government should be blamed for road safety

The government plays an important role in road safety. However, the effectiveness of the government in the context of road traffic accidents (RTAs) is rarely measured quantitatively. This study aims to quantitatively examine the effects of government regulation on human and organizational factors. A contributing factors classification framework of RTAs is presented based on the human factors analysis and classification system, one of the most popular systems approaches. A total of 405 major RTAs was collected over a 20-year period (1997-2017) in China and analyzed through the structural equation model. The results lead to two main conclusions: the frequency of inadequate regulation, which has reached 343, is the highest frequency among all contributing factors; government regulation exhibits significant effects on organizational influences, unsafe supervision and unsafe behaviors. These findings provide a new perspective for accident prevention that can be initiated by the government in policy-making and regulatory activities.

Evaluating the Impact of Increased Fuel Cost and Iran’s Currency Devaluation on Road Traffic Volume and Offenses in Iran, 2011–2019

Trends and underlying patterns should be identified in the timely distribution of road traffic offenses to increase traffic safety. In this study, a time series analysis was used to study the incidence rate of road traffic violations on Iranian rural roads. Road traffic volume and offenses data from March 2011 to October 2019 were aggregated. Interrupted time series were used to evaluate the impact of increasing fuel cost in June of 2013 and July of 2014 and the currency devaluation of Rial vs. US dollars in July of 2017 on trends and patterns, traffic volume, and number of offenses. A change-point detection (CPD) analysis was also used to identify singular changes in the frequency of traffic offenses. Results show a general decline in the number of overtaking and speeding offenses of −24.31% and −13.23%, respectively, due to the first increase in fuel cost. The second increase only reduced overtaking by 20.97%. In addition, Iran’s currency devaluation reduced the number of overtaking offenses by 26.39%. Modeling a change-point detection and a Mann-Kendall Test of traffic offenses in Iran, it was found that the burden of violations was reduced.

Revisiting the relationship between traffic accidents, real economic activity and other factors in Spain

This paper analyzes the relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain, using data on accidents, fatalities and injuries from January 1975 to December 2016. Our results show the historical asymmetric cyclical behavior of traffic accidents variables. This relationship is more evident for accidents and injuries, while fatalities have shown a different pattern since 2002. Besides using aggregate data, we have analyzed urban and nonurban accidents separately. We analyze the effect of economic variables, public policy interventions and other potential factors affecting traffic series. Regarding policy interventions, we confirm a permanent reduction in all accident rates associated with the mandatory use of seatbelts on car passengers since 1992. However, the penalty points system introduced in July 2006 has only had temporary effects. We have also shown the effect of economic variables such as Industrial Production Index, gasoline and diesel consumption and registration of new vehicles and, as a novelty, the benefits of using the composite coincident and leading indicators of the Spanish economy.

Coronavirus disease 2019: What could be the effects on Road safety?

In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a world-wide pandemic. Countries introduced public health measures to contain and reduce its spread. These measures included closures of educational institutions, non-essential businesses, events and activities, as well as working from and staying at home requirements. These measures have led to an economic downturn of unprecedented proportions. Generally, as economic activity declines, travel decreases and drivers are exposed to a lower risk of collisions. However, research on previous economic downturns suggests economic downturns differentially affect driver behaviours and situations. COVID-19 pandemic effects on road safety are currently unknown. However, preliminary information on factors such as the increased stress and anxiety brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, more "free" (idle) time, increased consumption of alcohol and drugs, and greater opportunities for speeding and stunt driving, might well have the opposite effect on road safety. Using an interactionist model we identify research questions for researchers to consider on potential person and situation factors associated with COVID-19 that could affect road safety during and after the pandemic. Collaborative efforts by researchers, and public and private sectors will be needed to gather data and develop road safety strategies in relation to the new reality of COVID-19.

Road Investment and Traffic Safety: An International Study

The aim of this study is to analyse whether the economic resources invested in roads—both investment in construction and expenditure on maintenance and conservation—have any influence on road fatality rates. Since this is a complex problem, and because there are many factors that can influence the fatality rate, other variables related to specific transport, socioeconomic and meteorological factors are also considered. The study was carried out using a panel data model, modelling road mortality as a function of 12 variables. The scope of the study is international, focusing on the interurban road network. Data were collected from 23 European countries for the period 1998–2016. The main results obtained are that both expenditure on road maintenance and conservation and the proportion of motorways in the total road network contribute to reducing road mortality. Contrariwise, greater investment in construction leads to an increase in the fatality rate.

Looking for traces of the Troika's intervention in European road safety

The recent economic crisis has required the bailout of some European States by the so-called Troika, with capital injections accompanied by financial austerity. This paper analyzes econometrically the impact of this support programme on road safety for an original panel data (1995-2015). The findings also corroborate the Kuznets curve hypothesis for traffic accidents in the long term. Regarding the impact of intervention in the short term, despite reductions in safety policy budgets due to austerity, financial support, and related austerity measures might have led to an improvement in road safety, reducing both the number of accidents and fatalities. Therefore, it seems that our result is more linked to the austerity measures than to the financial support given by the Troika.

Incidence of fatalities of road traffic accidents associated with alcohol consumption and the use of psychoactive drugs: A 7-year survey (2011-2017)

Driving under the influence of alcohol and/or psychoactive substances increases the risk of severe, even fatal motor vehicle accidents. The aim of this descriptive study was to present the impact of alcohol and/or psychoactive substances on fatal road traffic accidents (RTAs) during the period 2011-2017. For this purpose, the toxicological investigation reports from the Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology of the University of Athens were used. In total, 1,841 (32.2%) of the autopsies conducted by the Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens over a 7-year period (2011-2017) were victims of fatal RTAs. Blood and urine samples were collected and analyzed for the presence of alcohol and psychoactive substances. The results were classified according to sex, age, victim (car driver, motorcyclist, pedestrian, or passenger) and the date the accident occurred (day, month and year). In total, 40.7% of the RTA-related fatalities were associated with alcohol consumption, among which 20.3% were car drivers. Of these, 87.3% were male victims. A higher frequency of RTA-related fatalities associated with a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) >110 mg/dl was encountered in younger compared with older age groups. Psychoactive substances were detected in 348 (18.9%) of the victims (cannabis in 46.6% of these, benzodiazepines in 25.9%, opiates in 16.4% and cocaine in 11.1% of these). The percentage of the RTA-related victims that had consumed alcohol in combination with other psychoactive substances was 4.5%. On the whole, the findings of this study suggest that alcohol and psychoactive substances are probably risk factors for RTA-related fatalities.

Road traffic fatalities and its determinants in high-income countries: a continent-wise comparison

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are accountable for 1.2 million deaths and road safety is the part of sustainable development goals, which aims to provide a safe, accessible, affordable, and sustainable transport system by 2030. This study discovered the nexus of road traffic fatalities (RTFs) with its determinants in Asia, Europe, and America. Vector error correction model established the causality of RTFs (Asia, Europe), urbanization (Asia), physicians (Asia, Europe), traffic law enforcement index (Europe, America), vehicles (America), and paved roads (America). Short-run bidirectional causality of RTFs was established with educational expenditures (Asia, Europe), GNI (Europe), and urbanization (Europe). The fall in RTFs was 0.359% (Europe) and 0.957% (America) for 1% rise in GNI. The RTFs were decreased by 0.498% (Europe) and 0.390% (America) due to 1% rise in urbanization. Education shows 0.952% reduction in RTFs in Europe. The 1% increase in the number of physicians causes 0.793% reduction in RTFs in America. The RTFs were increased by 0.617% and 1.705% for 1% rise in the number of vehicles in Asia and America. The fall in RTFs was 3.604%, 0.134%, and 0.950% for 1% rise in paved roads in Asia, Europe, and America, respectively. Results show a reduction of 0.744% (Asia), 0.712% (Europe), and 0.312% (America) in RTFs due to 1% increase in traffic law enforcement index. The governments of all countries should expand and improve their paved road network and increase the enforcement of traffic laws. The government should make strict traffic laws like regular inspection of vehicles, strict inspection for the driving license, electronic challan, and medical fitness of drivers. The government should ensure the medical checkup of drivers at subsidized rates. It is useful to include the traffic rules in the educational syllabus due to the significant role of law enforcement in road safety. The government should use different media channels for the awareness of the public about loss due to road accidents.

Trends in road transport collision deaths in the Irish paediatric population: a retrospective review of mortality data, 1991-2015

OBJECTIVE

To establish the incidence of road transport collision (RTC) fatalities in the Irish paediatric population, examining trends in fatality rates over a period of 25 years, during which several national road safety interventions were implemented.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective review of death registration details of children 0-19 years in Ireland between January 1991 and December 2015. Trends in mortality rates were investigated using average annual per cent change and Poisson regression analysis.

RESULTS

Proportionate RTC mortality, the majority of which occurred on public roads (94.1%, n=1432) increased with age; <0.3% (<1 year), 8.3% (1-14 years) and 18.4% (15-19 years) (2011-2015 average). Over time, rates declined significantly in all age groups; reductions of 79.0% (4.0 to 0.84/100 000, 1-14 years) and 68.4% (15.5 to 4.9/100 000, 15-19 years) resulted in 537 (95% CI 515 to 566) fewer child deaths (1-19 years) over the period 1996-2015. This reduction was evident for both road user types, the greatest decline (84.8%) among pedestrians 1-14 years (2.1 to 0.32/100 000) and the lowest (66.5%) among occupants 15-19 years, the majority of whom were male (12.4 to 4.2/100 000). The rate of decline was greatest during periods coinciding with introduction of targeted interventions. Risk of death in children 1-14 years was halved in the period after 2002 (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.52) while in children 15-19 years old, a significantly lower RTC fatality risk was evident after 2006 and 2010 (IRR 0.68 and IRR 0.50).

CONCLUSION

Child and adolescent mortality from RTCs has declined dramatically in Ireland, in excess of reductions in overall paediatric mortality. However, rates remain higher than in other EU countries and further effort is required to reduce the number of deaths further, particularly among adolescent males.

How did the economic recession (2008-2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?

This paper presents analyses of how the economic recession that started in 2008 has influenced the number of traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Previous studies of the relationship between economic recessions and changes in the number of traffic fatalities are reviewed. Based on these studies, a causal diagram of the relationship between changes of the business cycle and changes in the number of traffic fatalities is proposed. This causal model is tested empirically by means of multivariate analyses and analyses of accident statistics for Great Britain and Sweden. Economic recession, as indicated both by slower growth of, or decline of gross national product, and by increased unemployment is associated with an accelerated decline in the number of traffic fatalities, i.e. a larger decline than the long-term trend that is normal in OECD countries. The principal mechanisms bringing this about are a disproportionate reduction of driving among high-risk drivers, in particular young drivers and a reduction of fatality rate per kilometre of travel, probably attributable to changes in road user behaviour that are only partly observable. The total number of vehicle kilometres of travel did not change very much as a result of the recession. The paper is based on an ITF-report that presents the analyses in greater detail.

Has the great recession and its aftermath reduced traffic fatalities?

An analysis of state-level data from 1984 to 2014 provides evidence on the relationship between economic recessions and US traffic fatalities. While there are large reductions associated with decreases in household median income, other policy variables tend to have additional and in some cases, larger effects. An increase in the inequality of the income distribution, measured by the Gini index, has reduced traffic fatalities. Graduated licensing policies, cell phone laws, and motorcycle helmet requirements are all associated with reductions in fatalities. Other factors include a proxy for medical technology, and access to emergency medical services (based on the percent of vehicle miles traveled in rural areas); reductions in the latter accounted for a substantial reduction in fatalities and is likely another indicator of reduced economic activity. Changes in the road network, mainly increases in the percent of collector roads has increased fatalities. Population growth is associated with increased traffic fatalities and changes in age cohorts has a small negative effect. Overall, results suggest that there has been a beneficial impact on traffic fatalities from reduced economic activity, but various policies adopted by the states have also reduced traffic fatalities.